Baltic
Dry Index. 1400 +114
Brent Crude 69.96
Spot Gold 2910 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 36.577 trillion!!
Free speech is my right to say what you don't want to hear.
George Orwell.
In the stock casinos, a difficult week.
Normally after last week’s weakness, there ought to be something of a rebound rally, but with China’s extra tariffs on the USA kicking in today, and the latest US inflation numbers coming out on Wednesday and Thursday, it’s hard to see “animal spirits” returning in the stock casinos without very helpful US inflation data.
Below, Asian casinos get off to at best, a mixed start.
Asia-Pacific markets mixed after volatile trading
week; Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits fresh high
Updated Mon, Mar 10 2025 12:48 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday
after a volatile trading week around the world.
U.S. stocks — which are expected to open
lower on Monday — have been on a roller-coaster ride since the start
of the month given uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff
policies — and their impact on the superpower’s growth and inflation.
Investors were particularly keeping a
watch on the shares of steel manufacturers ahead of U.S. 25% tariffs on steel
and aluminum imports, which will kick off this Wednesday.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 led gains in
Asia, rising 0.24% in choppy trade. The broader Topix index, meanwhile fell
0.26%, reversing course from earlier gains. The country’s cash earnings rose
2.8% year-on-year in January, slowing from December’s revised 4.4% climb.
South Korea’s Kospi added 0.47%, while the
small-cap Kosdaq increased 0.53%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.24%
in its last hour, after closing at a six-month
high in its previous session.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped
2.11%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.83%.
Over the weekend, China’s consumer
inflation dropped
below zero for the first time in 13 months due to seasonal distortions
and deflationary pressures. The consumer price index declined 0.7% in
February from a year earlier, compared with a 0.5% gain in the previous month,
data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed.
The Asian giant on Saturday also announced retaliatory
tariffs on some Canadian agricultural goods after Ottawa slapped
import duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products
last year.
Beijing said a 100% tariff would be
imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, while a 25% levy would be
placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada.
Over in India, the benchmark Nifty 50 began the day 0.32%
higher while the BSE Sensex climbed 0.43%.
In the U.S., the three major
averages closed
higher on Friday after a volatile trading day.
The S&P 500 regained some
ground on Friday, but the index still posted its worst week in several months
as the salvo of trade policy actions unnerved investors. The broad index rose
0.55% to 5,770.20, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 0.7% to 18,196.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
222.64 points, or 0.52%, to end at 42,801.72.
Asia
markets live: Stocks trade mixed after volatile week
Stock futures fall on Sunday evening after S&P
500′s worst week since September: Live updates
Updated Sun, Mar 9 2025 7:01 PM EDT
Stock futures moved lower on Sunday
evening ahead of a packed week of economic data, with investors smarting from
losses in early March.
Futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.8%,
while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped
nearly 1%. Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average slipped 268 points, or 0.6%.
Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.10% for
its worst weekly mark since September. The Dow fell 2.37%, while
the Nasdaq Composite shed
3.45%.
The struggles came as the market was
whipsawed by developments out of Washington, D.C., with negotiations on tariffs
between the U.S., Mexico and Canada playing out throughout the week.
In an interview that aired Sunday,
President Donald Trump responded to a question on Fox News about the
possibility of a recession by saying the economy was going through “a
period of transition.”
The political turbulence could continue
this week, with a heavy dose of economic
data adding to the list of potential market-moving events.
The New York Fed survey of consumer
expectations is due out on Monday, and it will pair with the University of
Michigan consumer sentiment reading on Friday.
On the inflation front, the February
consumer price index release is slated for Wednesday, followed by the producer
price index on Thursday.
“Inflation data will dominate the economic
calendar this week. The total and core Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) likely rose
at a more moderate pace in February after sharp increases in the prior month,
resulting in annual increases holding roughly steady,” Comerica Bank chief
economist Bill Adams said in a statement. “Pushed higher by tariffs and tariff
threats, producer prices probably rose faster than consumer prices for a second
month running, keeping annual PPI elevated.”
Stock
market news today: Live updates
Rocky US stock market faces inflation data test
9 March 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -A critical inflation
report in the coming week could further rattle an increasingly tumultuous U.S.
stock market, with investors worried about an economic growth slowdown and
President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Despite a gain on Friday, the benchmark
S&P 500 marked its worst week in six months. The tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite on Thursday ended down more than 10% from its December all-time
closing high, confirming it has been in a correction for several months.
Investors were grappling with dramatic
policy change around the world. Trump's back-and-forth implementation of fresh
tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China exacerbated broad concerns about the
economy. Markets were also shaken by Germany's surprise spending plans, which
drove a selloff in the benchmark German Bund.
As recent U.S. economic data has
disappointed, one silver lining for stocks has been markets factoring in more
interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to account for potential
growth weakening.
But Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index
report could scuttle those expectations if it confirms that inflation is still
simmering at levels that force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter.
"A hot CPI print will likely scare
the market," said Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at
Allspring Global Investments. "The market still wants the Fed to come to
the rescue... Until inflation and inflation expectations come down, the Fed is
handcuffed."
Investors are mindful of last month's
hotter-than-expected CPI data that saw inflation rise 0.5% in January, its
biggest monthly gain since August 2023.
CPI for February is expected to have
climbed 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll.
The inflation report will be among the
last key pieces of data before the Fed next meets on March 18-19. While the
central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% at
that meeting, Fed funds futures indicate about 70 more basis points of easing
are expected through December of this year, according to LSEG data.
"Equities would not enjoy a hot CPI
print because... it softens that Fed easing view that has been starting to
build in the market," said John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY.
Investors are also increasingly concerned
about "stagflation" - slowing growth and rising inflation that is
feared to be a toxic combination for a broad range of assets.
An elevated CPI report could "bring
the 'S-word' into play," Velis said.
Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth
picked up in February, but cracks are emerging in the once-resilient labor
market amid chaotic trade policy and federal government spending cuts.
The market's focus will also be on
Washington, as lawmakers wrangle over a spending bill that would avert a
partial shutdown of agencies late next week.
More
Rocky US stock
market faces inflation data test
In other news.
China to impose retaliatory tariffs on some
Canadian products as trade war heats up
Published Sat, Mar 8 2025 12:09 AM EST Updated
Sat, Mar 8 2025 1:08 AM EST
China on Saturday announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian
agricultural goods, hitting back after Ottawa slapped import duties on
Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products.
Beijing said a 100% tariff would be
imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, while a 25% levy would be
placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada.
The tariffs are scheduled to come into
force from March 20, according to a statement from China’s Customs Tariff
Commission of the State Council.
The measures come amid a brewing
global trade war, following several tariff announcements by the U.S.,
China, Canada and Mexico in recent months.
Canada imposed 100% import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs from
Oct. 1 last year, following in the footsteps of the U.S. and the European Union
over concerns related to unfair competition.
Ottawa also applied a
25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum products from China, which came
into effect from Oct. 15.
“Canada’s unilateral imposition of tariffs
disregards objective facts and World Trade Organization rules, is a typical
trade protectionist practice, constitutes a discriminatory measure against
China, seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests, and
undermines China-Canada economic and trade relations,” China’s customs
authorities said in a statement on a Saturday, according to a
Google translation.
Trade
war: China to slap retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products
China hits back at US imports as Trump’s fresh
tariffs take effect
UPDATED Mar 04, 2025, 03:18 PM PUBLISHED Mar 04, 2025, 01:18 PM
BEIJING - China on March 4 swiftly
retaliated against fresh US tariffs, announcing 10 to 15 per cent hikes to
import levies covering a range of American agricultural and food products,
moving the world’s top two economies a step closer toward an all-out trade war.
Beijing also placed 25 US firms under
export and investment restrictions on national security grounds, but refrained
from punishing any household names, as it did when it retaliated against the
Trump administration’s Feb 4 tariffs.
Ten of these 25 US firms were targeted by
China for selling arms to Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.
Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims.
China’s latest retaliatory tariffs came as
the extra 10 per cent duty US President Donald Trump threatened China with last
week entered into force at 5.01am GMT (1.01pm Singapore time) on March 4,
resulting in a cumulative 20 per cent tariff in response to what the White
House considers Chinese inaction over drug flows.
China has accused the US of fentanyl
blackmail, and it has some of the toughest anti-drug policies in the world.
---- China responded
immediately after the deadline, announcing it will impose an additional 15 per
cent tariff on US chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and an extra 10 per cent levy
on US soya beans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and
dairy imports from March 10, the Chinese finance ministry announced in a
statement.
More
China
hits back at US imports as Trump’s fresh tariffs take effect | The Straits
Times
China’s consumer inflation turns negative for the
first time in 13 months
Published Sat, Mar 8 2025 10:32 PM EST
China’s national consumer price index
(CPI) in February fell into negative territory for the first time since January
last year, weighed down by a decline in food, tobacco and alcohol prices.
The CPI declined by 0.7% last month from a
year earlier, data published Sunday by China’s National Bureau of
Statistics showed, reversing a year-on-year gain of 0.5% in January.
The reading missed estimates of an
annualized contraction of 0.5%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
China’s CPI in February fell 0.2% on a
monthly basis, meanwhile, compared to a rise of 0.7% in January.
The data comes as investors continue to
look for signs that Beijing’s stimulus measures can help to boost the
country’s economic
recovery.
China on Wednesday set its GDP target for
2025 at “around
5%” and laid out plans to stabilize economic growth by propping up domestic
demand.
Beijing also revised down its annual
consumer price inflation target to “around 2%” — the lowest in more than two
decades — from 3% or higher in prior years, according to the Asia Society
Policy Institute.
The new inflation goal would act more as a
ceiling than a target to be realized.
Econmists say China’s
growth target of around 5% this year may be challenging to achieve,
particularly amid persistently weak domestic consumption and an escalating
trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
Inflation: China consumer price index drops below zero in February
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Recession fears are being blown out of proportion.
Worry about inflation instead
March 9, 2025
Bad news about the US economy travels
fast, but examples of a slowing economy are potentially being blown out
proportion.
Consumer spending declined in
January for
the first time in nearly two years, a real-time forecast of economic
growth recently
turned negative,
the housing market was off to a sluggish start this year and the air is rife
with uncertainty because
of President Donald Trump’s frenetic back-and-forth on tariffs.
The Conference Board’s latest consumer
survey even showed that the share of respondents expecting a recession in the
coming year jumped in February to a nine-month high.
But data for the beginning of the year was
skewed by temporary forces, such as unusually harsh weather and wildfires. The
underlying fundamentals remain solid: Employers
continue to add jobs at a healthy pace, unemployment has stayed low and wages
are still outpacing inflation.
And it’s true that Americans are feeling
uneasy because of Trump’s tariffs, but sentiment is not great at predicting
future spending behavior.
One cause for concern, though: The Fed
still isn’t done bringing inflation to target, and the threat of a global trade
war sparked by the Trump administration could jack up consumer prices further.
”Demand is showing some fraying around the
edges, but it hasn’t accumulated to enough to be a meaningful risk of a
downturn.” Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Investments, told CNN.
“Inflation is still a top priority.”
It’s too soon to be worried
In January, large swaths of the United
States were buffeted
by severe winter storms; over in southern California, deadly wildfires ravaged
neighborhoods.
Those events likely curbed economic
activity that month, economists say: Consumer spending fell 0.2%, according to
government data, as home construction plunged 9.8%. That triggered a real-time
forecast of economic growth by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to show the
economy contracting a sharp 2.4% in the current quarter. (The numbers will
almost certainly change in the government’s official estimate of gross domestic
product for the first quarter, due in April.)
----Fed officials are worried about
inflation, not a recession
Several Federal Reserve officials have
recently noted economic uncertainty and signs of slower growth. But none of
them mentioned recession worries.
Rather, some of them pointed to the risk
of inflation picking back up again, if the tariff spat among the United States
and its three biggest trading partners spirals out of control. Trump has
imposed additional levies on Chinese imports and has applied — and then
suspended — tax hikes on Canadian and Mexican imports. Retaliation and tough
rhetoric has escalated trade tensions among the countries — a rapid-fire
back-and-forth that’s given consumers and businesses whiplash.
“Based on what we know today, given all
the uncertainties around that, I do factor in some effects of tariffs now on
inflation, on prices, because I think we will see some of those effects later
this year,” New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday at an event
hosted by Bloomberg.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
said Thursday at an event in Philadelphia that price “pressures are building”
and that the progress the Fed has seen so far in taming inflation is “at risk.”
The Fed stopped cutting interest rates in
January precisely because there was little progress on the inflation front in
the final months of 2024. The tide hasn’t turned enough for the Fed to consider
lowering borrowing costs again anytime soon, with Wall Street betting that the
Fed will hold rates steady again later this month, according to futures.
“With inflation risks decidedly tilted to
the upside and labor market conditions still generally solid, we believe a
reactive Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach over the coming months and
expect only two Fed rate cuts in 2025, in June and December,” Lydia Boussour,
senior economist at Ernst & Young, said in commentary issued Friday.
Recession fears are being blown out of proportion. Worry about inflation instead
Mixed
US Employment News Ends a Tumultuous Week
March
7, 2025 at 11:44 PM GMT
New
numbers in on Friday show US job growth steadied last month, but they
also show
unemployment rose to 4.1%. Overall, it wasn’t the worst day of
economic news for the Trump administration in what’s otherwise been three solid
weeks of grim data. Inflation has proven sticky and stagflation is now
a threat. As
consumers start to pull back on spending, businesses
may start to rethink hiring plans. More Americans
are permanently out of work and fewer workers are on federal government
payrolls. There also was a jump in those working part-time for economic
reasons—and the number of Americans holding multiple jobs climbed to a
record of nearly 8.9 million.
Nevertheless,
according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls did
increase by 151,000 in February. The advance in hiring was led by health
care, transportation and financial activities.
This
is the first jobs report fully within Trump’s second term. It’s also the first
to reflect the start of his effort to slash the US government, an
initiative that’s the subject of widespread litigation for being potentially
illegal or unconstitutional. It’s already contributed to the most job-cut
announcements since
early in the pandemic. Some economists say the US could lose over half a million jobs by the
end of the year because of Trump’s firings and their spillover effects on
the broader economy. Friday’s jobs numbers—since they don’t include Trump’s
recent mass dismissals and those yet to come—could be the calm before the
storm.
But
rather than start your weekend on a sour note, here’s some calming news from
none other than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While acknowledging
with his usual understatement that there’s increased uncertainty in the US
economic outlook, Powell said the economy “continues to be in
a good place.” —David E. Rovella
Mixed US
Employment News Ends a Tumultuous Week: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
THE
GREAT COVID COVER-UP
‘This
is the Chernobyl of Biology’ Sun documentary exposes Wuhan ‘lab leak’ behind
Covid… and US’s shock role in it
Our
exclusive documentary also probes links between a British-born businessman and
American funding into bat virus research at the Wuhan Institute
Imogen Braddick, Assistant Foreign Editor Published:
18:00, 7 Mar 2025 Updated: 22:36, 7 Mar 2025
FEW
of us had heard of the Chinese city of Wuhan when the world was first paralysed
by Covid-19 five years ago.
Today,
the sprawling metropolis is synonymous with the pandemic that claimed
227,000 lives in the UK — along with its sinister labs where top secret
biological experiments are carried out.
Within
the first few days of Britain’s initial lockdown in March 2020, as
millions were confined to their homes, questions were already being
asked about whether Wuhan’s Institute of
Virology could
be behind the outbreak.
Now,
as the country marks the five-year anniversary of Covid-19, an exclusive documentary by The Sun
reveals the experts, scientists and investigators who not only believe the
virus was caused by a lab leak, but that American scientists helped to cover up
the scandal.
Our
documentary took me to the heart of the origins of Covid and explores
whether China was trying
to cover up the creation of a biological weapon by blaming
the pandemic on a wet food market 17 miles away.
We
also reveal that, while scientists publicly insisted the disease came from
“natural” sources, behind the scenes they were exchanging messages about a
laboratory leak.
One
expert told us: “Watergate was nothing compared to this.
“This
is the Chernobyl of biology.”
Dr
Robert Redfield, the former head of the US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, said that a few months before the pandemic, the Wuhan Institute was
taken over by the Chinese military while officials deleted its databases and
took on a contract for a new ventilation system.
‘Aggressively
silenced'
We
now know that three lab researchers fell ill in November 2019 — a month before
the first Covid cases were reported to the World Health
Organisation.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Team hits breakthrough in perovskite solar
cells
Updated: 2025-03-07 20:19
research team from
Shanghai-based East China University of Science and Technology has made a
significant breakthrough in the field of perovskite solar cells, which may
provide a new solution for their industrial application.
They uncovered the key
mechanism behind the instability of such cells, and developed a novel solar
cell device that can operate for a record-breaking 3,670 hours.
The operation was under
standard illumination and high temperature of 90 C, and only the period before
the efficiency reduced to 97 percent was calculated.
A paper about the research by
a team from the university's School of Materials Science and Engineering was
published on the website of the journal Science on Friday.
Perovskite solar cells, as a
promising new photovoltaic technology, offer advantages, such as high
efficiency, low cost, flexibility, and lightweight properties, making them
crucial for addressing energy and environmental challenges.
However, device instability
remained a primary obstacle to their industrial development.
Researchers identified the
crucial mechanism causing such instability — the photo-mechanical degradation
effect — and proposed a novel approach involving graphene-polymer mechanical
reinforcement of perovskite materials.
They discovered that under
sunlight, perovskite materials exhibit significant photo-induced expansion,
leading to compression between crystals and the accumulation of local stress
near grain boundaries, accelerating defect formation and resulting in performance
losses in perovskite solar cells.
"Through the assembly of
a single-layer graphene onto the surface of perovskite thin films using PMMA
polymer as an interfacial coupling layer, we successfully created a new type of
perovskite solar cell device," said Hou Yu, a lead researcher on the team.
"Leveraging the
excellent mechanical properties of graphene and the coupling effect of the
polymer, the modulus and hardness of the perovskite thin film were doubled,
significantly restraining lattice dynamic expansion effects under illumination
conditions," he said.
In their research, they
demonstrated that the graphene-polymer bilayer structure reduced lattice
deformation rates from +0.31 percent to +0.08 percent, effectively mitigating
material damage caused by expansion near grain boundaries.
Through a combination of
dynamic structural evolution experiments and computational modeling, the
research team validated the long-term stability of this perovskite device under
conditions of illumination, high temperature and vacuum environment, providing
support for the reliability and stability of perovskite solar cells.
Team hits breakthrough in perovskite solar cells - Chinadaily.com.cn
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
In a
time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
George
Orwell.
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