Monday, 10 March 2025

US CPI And PPI Week. China Tariffs Canada. China’s US Tariffs Start.

Baltic Dry Index. 1400 +114       Brent Crude 69.96

Spot Gold 2910             US 2 Year Yield 3.99  +0.03  

US Federal Debt. 36.577 trillion!!

Free speech is my right to say what you don't want to hear.

George Orwell.

In the stock casinos, a difficult week.

Normally after last week’s weakness, there ought to be something of a rebound rally, but with China’s extra tariffs on the USA kicking in today, and the latest US inflation numbers coming out on Wednesday and Thursday, it’s hard to see “animal spirits” returning in the stock casinos without very helpful US inflation data.

Below, Asian casinos get off to at best, a mixed start.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed after volatile trading week; Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits fresh high

Updated Mon, Mar 10 2025 12:48 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday after a volatile trading week around the world.

U.S. stocks — which are expected to open lower on Monday — have been on a roller-coaster ride since the start of the month given uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — and their impact on the superpower’s growth and inflation.

Investors were particularly keeping a watch on the shares of steel manufacturers ahead of U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will kick off this Wednesday.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 led gains in Asia, rising 0.24% in choppy trade. The broader Topix index, meanwhile fell 0.26%, reversing course from earlier gains. The country’s cash earnings rose 2.8% year-on-year in January, slowing from December’s revised 4.4% climb.

South Korea’s Kospi added 0.47%, while the small-cap Kosdaq increased 0.53%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.24% in its last hour, after closing at a six-month high in its previous session.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 2.11%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.83%.

Over the weekend, China’s consumer inflation dropped below zero for the first time in 13 months due to seasonal distortions and deflationary pressures. The consumer price index declined 0.7% in February from a year earlier, compared with a 0.5% gain in the previous month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed.

The Asian giant on Saturday also announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian agricultural goods after Ottawa slapped import duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products last year.

Beijing said a 100% tariff would be imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, while a 25% levy would be placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada.

Over in India, the benchmark Nifty 50 began the day 0.32% higher while the BSE Sensex climbed 0.43%.

In the U.S., the three major averages closed higher on Friday after a volatile trading day.

The S&P 500 regained some ground on Friday, but the index still posted its worst week in several months as the salvo of trade policy actions unnerved investors. The broad index rose 0.55% to 5,770.20, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to 18,196.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 222.64 points, or 0.52%, to end at 42,801.72.

Asia markets live: Stocks trade mixed after volatile week

Stock futures fall on Sunday evening after S&P 500′s worst week since September: Live updates

Updated Sun, Mar 9 2025 7:01 PM EDT

Stock futures moved lower on Sunday evening ahead of a packed week of economic data, with investors smarting from losses in early March.

Futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped nearly 1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 268 points, or 0.6%.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.10% for its worst weekly mark since September. The Dow fell 2.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 3.45%.

The struggles came as the market was whipsawed by developments out of Washington, D.C., with negotiations on tariffs between the U.S., Mexico and Canada playing out throughout the week.

In an interview that aired Sunday, President Donald Trump responded to a question on Fox News about the possibility of a recession by saying the economy was going through “a period of transition.”

The political turbulence could continue this week, with a heavy dose of economic data adding to the list of potential market-moving events.

The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations is due out on Monday, and it will pair with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading on Friday.

On the inflation front, the February consumer price index release is slated for Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on Thursday.

“Inflation data will dominate the economic calendar this week. The total and core Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) likely rose at a more moderate pace in February after sharp increases in the prior month, resulting in annual increases holding roughly steady,” Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams said in a statement. “Pushed higher by tariffs and tariff threats, producer prices probably rose faster than consumer prices for a second month running, keeping annual PPI elevated.”

Stock market news today: Live updates

Rocky US stock market faces inflation data test

9 March 2025

NEW YORK (Reuters) -A critical inflation report in the coming week could further rattle an increasingly tumultuous U.S. stock market, with investors worried about an economic growth slowdown and President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Despite a gain on Friday, the benchmark S&P 500 marked its worst week in six months. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on Thursday ended down more than 10% from its December all-time closing high, confirming it has been in a correction for several months.

Investors were grappling with dramatic policy change around the world. Trump's back-and-forth implementation of fresh tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China exacerbated broad concerns about the economy. Markets were also shaken by Germany's surprise spending plans, which drove a selloff in the benchmark German Bund.

As recent U.S. economic data has disappointed, one silver lining for stocks has been markets factoring in more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to account for potential growth weakening. 

But Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index report could scuttle those expectations if it confirms that inflation is still simmering at levels that force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter.

"A hot CPI print will likely scare the market," said Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. "The market still wants the Fed to come to the rescue... Until inflation and inflation expectations come down, the Fed is handcuffed."

Investors are mindful of last month's hotter-than-expected CPI data that saw inflation rise 0.5% in January, its biggest monthly gain since August 2023.

CPI for February is expected to have climbed 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll.

The inflation report will be among the last key pieces of data before the Fed next meets on March 18-19. While the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% at that meeting, Fed funds futures indicate about 70 more basis points of easing are expected through December of this year, according to LSEG data.

"Equities would not enjoy a hot CPI print because... it softens that Fed easing view that has been starting to build in the market," said John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY.

Investors are also increasingly concerned about "stagflation" - slowing growth and rising inflation that is feared to be a toxic combination for a broad range of assets.

An elevated CPI report could "bring the 'S-word' into play," Velis said.

Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth picked up in February, but cracks are emerging in the once-resilient labor market amid chaotic trade policy and federal government spending cuts.

The market's focus will also be on Washington, as lawmakers wrangle over a spending bill that would avert a partial shutdown of agencies late next week.

More

Rocky US stock market faces inflation data test

In other news.

China to impose retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products as trade war heats up

Published Sat, Mar 8 2025 12:09 AM EST Updated Sat, Mar 8 2025 1:08 AM EST

China on Saturday announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian agricultural goods, hitting back after Ottawa slapped import duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products.

Beijing said a 100% tariff would be imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, while a 25% levy would be placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada.

The tariffs are scheduled to come into force from March 20, according to a statement from China’s Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.

The measures come amid a brewing global trade war, following several tariff announcements by the U.S., China, Canada and Mexico in recent months.

Canada imposed 100% import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs from Oct. 1 last year, following in the footsteps of the U.S. and the European Union over concerns related to unfair competition.

Ottawa also applied a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum products from China, which came into effect from Oct. 15.

“Canada’s unilateral imposition of tariffs disregards objective facts and World Trade Organization rules, is a typical trade protectionist practice, constitutes a discriminatory measure against China, seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests, and undermines China-Canada economic and trade relations,” China’s customs authorities said in a statement on a Saturday, according to a Google translation.

Trade war: China to slap retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products

China hits back at US imports as Trump’s fresh tariffs take effect

UPDATED Mar 04, 2025, 03:18 PM  PUBLISHED Mar 04, 2025, 01:18 PM

BEIJING - China on March 4 swiftly retaliated against fresh US tariffs, announcing 10 to 15 per cent hikes to import levies covering a range of American agricultural and food products, moving the world’s top two economies a step closer toward an all-out trade war.

Beijing also placed 25 US firms under export and investment restrictions on national security grounds, but refrained from punishing any household names, as it did when it retaliated against the Trump administration’s Feb 4 tariffs.

Ten of these 25 US firms were targeted by China for selling arms to Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims.

China’s latest retaliatory tariffs came as the extra 10 per cent duty US President Donald Trump threatened China with last week entered into force at 5.01am GMT (1.01pm Singapore time) on March 4, resulting in a cumulative 20 per cent tariff in response to what the White House considers Chinese inaction over drug flows.

China has accused the US of fentanyl blackmail, and it has some of the toughest anti-drug policies in the world.

---- China responded immediately after the deadline, announcing it will impose an additional 15 per cent tariff on US chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and an extra 10 per cent levy on US soya beans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and dairy imports from March 10, the Chinese finance ministry announced in a statement.

More

China hits back at US imports as Trump’s fresh tariffs take effect | The Straits Times

China’s consumer inflation turns negative for the first time in 13 months

Published Sat, Mar 8 2025 10:32 PM EST

China’s national consumer price index (CPI) in February fell into negative territory for the first time since January last year, weighed down by a decline in food, tobacco and alcohol prices.

The CPI declined by 0.7% last month from a year earlier, data published Sunday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed, reversing a year-on-year gain of 0.5% in January.

The reading missed estimates of an annualized contraction of 0.5%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

China’s CPI in February fell 0.2% on a monthly basis, meanwhile, compared to a rise of 0.7% in January.

The data comes as investors continue to look for signs that Beijing’s stimulus measures can help to boost the country’s economic recovery.

China on Wednesday set its GDP target for 2025 at “around 5%” and laid out plans to stabilize economic growth by propping up domestic demand.

Beijing also revised down its annual consumer price inflation target to “around 2%” — the lowest in more than two decades — from 3% or higher in prior years, according to the Asia Society Policy Institute.

The new inflation goal would act more as a ceiling than a target to be realized.

Econmists say China’s growth target of around 5% this year may be challenging to achieve, particularly amid persistently weak domestic consumption and an escalating trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

Inflation: China consumer price index drops below zero in February

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Recession fears are being blown out of proportion. Worry about inflation instead

March 9, 2025

Bad news about the US economy travels fast, but examples of a slowing economy are potentially being blown out proportion.

Consumer spending declined in January for the first time in nearly two years, a real-time forecast of economic growth recently turned negative, the housing market was off to a sluggish start this year and the air is rife with uncertainty because of President Donald Trump’s frenetic back-and-forth on tariffs.

The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey even showed that the share of respondents expecting a recession in the coming year jumped in February to a nine-month high.

But data for the beginning of the year was skewed by temporary forces, such as unusually harsh weather and wildfires. The underlying fundamentals remain solid: Employers continue to add jobs at a healthy pace, unemployment has stayed low and wages are still outpacing inflation.

And it’s true that Americans are feeling uneasy because of Trump’s tariffs, but sentiment is not great at predicting future spending behavior.

One cause for concern, though: The Fed still isn’t done bringing inflation to target, and the threat of a global trade war sparked by the Trump administration could jack up consumer prices further.

”Demand is showing some fraying around the edges, but it hasn’t accumulated to enough to be a meaningful risk of a downturn.” Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Investments, told CNN. “Inflation is still a top priority.”

It’s too soon to be worried

In January, large swaths of the United States were buffeted by severe winter storms; over in southern California, deadly wildfires ravaged neighborhoods.

Those events likely curbed economic activity that month, economists say: Consumer spending fell 0.2%, according to government data, as home construction plunged 9.8%. That triggered a real-time forecast of economic growth by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to show the economy contracting a sharp 2.4% in the current quarter. (The numbers will almost certainly change in the government’s official estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter, due in April.)

----Fed officials are worried about inflation, not a recession

Several Federal Reserve officials have recently noted economic uncertainty and signs of slower growth. But none of them mentioned recession worries.

Rather, some of them pointed to the risk of inflation picking back up again, if the tariff spat among the United States and its three biggest trading partners spirals out of control. Trump has imposed additional levies on Chinese imports and has applied — and then suspended — tax hikes on Canadian and Mexican imports. Retaliation and tough rhetoric has escalated trade tensions among the countries — a rapid-fire back-and-forth that’s given consumers and businesses whiplash.

“Based on what we know today, given all the uncertainties around that, I do factor in some effects of tariffs now on inflation, on prices, because I think we will see some of those effects later this year,” New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday at an event hosted by Bloomberg.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Thursday at an event in Philadelphia that price “pressures are building” and that the progress the Fed has seen so far in taming inflation is “at risk.”

The Fed stopped cutting interest rates in January precisely because there was little progress on the inflation front in the final months of 2024. The tide hasn’t turned enough for the Fed to consider lowering borrowing costs again anytime soon, with Wall Street betting that the Fed will hold rates steady again later this month, according to futures.

“With inflation risks decidedly tilted to the upside and labor market conditions still generally solid, we believe a reactive Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach over the coming months and expect only two Fed rate cuts in 2025, in June and December,” Lydia Boussour, senior economist at Ernst & Young, said in commentary issued Friday.

Recession fears are being blown out of proportion. Worry about inflation instead

Mixed US Employment News Ends a Tumultuous Week

March 7, 2025 at 11:44 PM GMT

New numbers in on Friday show US job growth steadied last month, but they also show unemployment rose to 4.1%. Overall, it wasn’t the worst day of economic news for the Trump administration in what’s otherwise been three solid weeks of grim data. Inflation has proven sticky and stagflation is now a threat. As consumers start to pull back on spending, businesses may start to rethink hiring plans. More Americans are permanently out of work and fewer workers are on federal government payrolls. There also was a jump in those working part-time for economic reasons—and the number of Americans holding multiple jobs climbed to a record of nearly 8.9 million.

Nevertheless, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls did increase by 151,000 in February. The advance in hiring was led by health care, transportation and financial activities.

This is the first jobs report fully within Trump’s second term. It’s also the first to reflect the start of his effort to slash the US government, an initiative that’s the subject of widespread litigation for being potentially illegal or unconstitutional. It’s already contributed to the most job-cut announcements since early in the pandemic. Some economists say the US could lose over half a million jobs by the end of the year because of Trump’s firings and their spillover effects on the broader economy. Friday’s jobs numbers—since they don’t include Trump’s recent mass dismissals and those yet to come—could be the calm before the storm.

But rather than start your weekend on a sour note, here’s some calming news from none other than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While acknowledging with his usual understatement that there’s increased uncertainty in the US economic outlook, Powell said the economy “continues to be in a good place.” David E. Rovella

Mixed US Employment News Ends a Tumultuous Week: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

THE GREAT COVID COVER-UP 

‘This is the Chernobyl of Biology’ Sun documentary exposes Wuhan ‘lab leak’ behind Covid… and US’s shock role in it

Our exclusive documentary also probes links between a British-born businessman and American funding into bat virus research at the Wuhan Institute

Imogen Braddick, Assistant Foreign Editor Published: 18:00, 7 Mar 2025 Updated: 22:36, 7 Mar 2025

FEW of us had heard of the Chinese city of Wuhan when the world was first paralysed by Covid-19 five years ago.

Today, the sprawling metropolis is synonymous with the ­pandemic that claimed 227,000 lives in the UK — along with its sinister labs where top secret biological experiments are ­carried out.

Within the first few days of Britain’s initial lockdown in March 2020, as millions were confined to their homes, questions were already being asked about whether Wuhan’s ­Institute of Virology could be behind the outbreak.

Now, as the country marks the five-year anniversary of Covid-19, an exclusive documentary by The Sun reveals the experts, scientists and investigators who not only believe the virus was caused by a lab leak, but that American scientists helped to cover up the scandal.

Our documentary took me to the heart of the origins of Covid and explores whether China was trying to cover up the creation of a ­biological weapon by blaming the pandemic on a wet food market 17 miles away.

We also reveal that, while scientists publicly insisted the disease came from “natural” sources, behind the scenes they were exchanging messages about a laboratory leak.

One expert told us: “Watergate was nothing compared to this.

“This is the Chernobyl of biology.”

Dr Robert Redfield, the former head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that a few months before the pandemic, the Wuhan Institute was taken over by the Chinese military while officials deleted its databases and took on a contract for a new ventilation system.

‘Aggressively silenced'

We now know that three lab researchers fell ill in November 2019 — a month before the first Covid cases were reported to the World Health Organisation.

More

'This is the Chernobyl of Biology' Sun documentary exposes Wuhan 'lab leak' behind Covid... and US's shock role in it | The Sun

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Team hits breakthrough in perovskite solar cells

 Updated: 2025-03-07 20:19

research team from Shanghai-based East China University of Science and Technology has made a significant breakthrough in the field of perovskite solar cells, which may provide a new solution for their industrial application.

They uncovered the key mechanism behind the instability of such cells, and developed a novel solar cell device that can operate for a record-breaking 3,670 hours.

The operation was under standard illumination and high temperature of 90 C, and only the period before the efficiency reduced to 97 percent was calculated.

A paper about the research by a team from the university's School of Materials Science and Engineering was published on the website of the journal Science on Friday.

Perovskite solar cells, as a promising new photovoltaic technology, offer advantages, such as high efficiency, low cost, flexibility, and lightweight properties, making them crucial for addressing energy and environmental challenges.

However, device instability remained a primary obstacle to their industrial development.

Researchers identified the crucial mechanism causing such instability — the photo-mechanical degradation effect — and proposed a novel approach involving graphene-polymer mechanical reinforcement of perovskite materials.

They discovered that under sunlight, perovskite materials exhibit significant photo-induced expansion, leading to compression between crystals and the accumulation of local stress near grain boundaries, accelerating defect formation and resulting in performance losses in perovskite solar cells.

"Through the assembly of a single-layer graphene onto the surface of perovskite thin films using PMMA polymer as an interfacial coupling layer, we successfully created a new type of perovskite solar cell device," said Hou Yu, a lead researcher on the team.

"Leveraging the excellent mechanical properties of graphene and the coupling effect of the polymer, the modulus and hardness of the perovskite thin film were doubled, significantly restraining lattice dynamic expansion effects under illumination conditions," he said.

In their research, they demonstrated that the graphene-polymer bilayer structure reduced lattice deformation rates from +0.31 percent to +0.08 percent, effectively mitigating material damage caused by expansion near grain boundaries.

Through a combination of dynamic structural evolution experiments and computational modeling, the research team validated the long-term stability of this perovskite device under conditions of illumination, high temperature and vacuum environment, providing support for the reliability and stability of perovskite solar cells.

Team hits breakthrough in perovskite solar cells - Chinadaily.com.cn

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

George Orwell.


No comments:

Post a Comment