Baltic
Dry Index. 1637 -13 Brent Crude 71.15
Spot Gold 3046 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 36.618 trillion!!
It has long been observed that
at or around the time of one of the two annual equinoxes, stock trends often
reverse course.
At the equinox, the length of
the day equals that of the night (12 hours each!) and essentially, the summer
days turn into autumn nights, and vice versa, twice a year.
Using that analogy, it seems bull trends can turn into bear trends, as traders can flip their perceptions at such times.
Chart of the week: do equinoxes really affect stock trends?
As expected the US central bank stuck to its existing key interest rate, prompting a mild relief and short covering rally in US stocks.
Later today it’s “the old lady of Threadneedle Streets” turn at guessing the appropriate interest rate for the UK economy.
Not that my opinion matters at all, but I think the Fed should have cut yesterday and the BOE should cut later today to try to mitigate the UK’s far left government’s tax increases next month and its heavily anti-business policies.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as China and U.S.
keep interest rates steady
Updated Thu, Mar 20 2025 11:53 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday
as China’s central bank kept interest rates steady, after the U.S. Federal
Reserve kept benchmark rates unchanged overnight.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 1.02%
higher.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.28% while
the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.55%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.36%
and mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.17% after China kept its key
lending rates unchanged as Beijing juggles propping up growth and
stabilizing its currency amid mounting trade frictions.
The People’s Bank of China kept the 1-year
loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, where they have been since
a quarter-percentage-point
cut in October.
Japan markets were closed for a holiday.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates
steady at 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday, while signaling that they anticipate two
rate reductions later in the year. Their economic projection also foresaw
rising inflation and reduced economic growth.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that
while economists sounded the likelihood of a recession, a severe downturn is
not likely. The Fed’s decision comes against a backdrop of festering tensions
between the U.S. and its key trade partners.
U.S. stock futures were little changed
after the three major averages rallied as the Fed maintained its outlook for
two interest rate cuts this year.
The three major U.S. indexes closed
higher. The S&P 500 clawed
back more of the rout since late February that took the benchmark briefly into
correction territory. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average climbed 383.32 points, or 0.92%, and closed
at 41,964.63. The S&P 500 jumped
1.08% to end at 5,675.29, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.41% to settle at 17,750.79.
Asia
markets live: China loan prime rate
Stock futures rise as investors look to extend
rally fueled by Fed’s rate cut outlook: Live updates
Updated Wed, Mar 19 2025 7:58 PM EDT
Stock futures rose on Wednesday night. The
action comes after the major averages rallied after the Federal Reserve stuck
with its outlook for two interest rate cuts in 2025.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
71 points, or just shy of 0.2%. S&P 500 futures were up
nearly 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100
futures climbed about 0.4%.
While the Fed kept the federal funds rate
at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% in a widely
anticipated move on Wednesday, the central bank also maintained a
forecast for two
rate cuts in 2025 despite an economic outlook that called for higher
inflation and lower economic growth.
Stocks climbed, regaining some of their
footing from a market sell-off that has been going on since February. The Dow jumped 0.9% and the S&P 500 surged just over
1%. The Nasdaq Composite gained
1.4%, but remains in correction — that is, the index is still more than 10% off
its high.
The S&P 500, which briefly slipped
into correction territory last week, is now more than 7% off its record high.
The broad market index is also on pace to break a four-week losing streak.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell labeled
the potential
effect of tariffs on inflation as likely being short-lived or
transitory.
″‘Transitory’ is back, or at least that
was the insinuation. The market reaction, to me, says that investors are
willing to believe that tariffs and other policies won’t create lasting
inflationary pressures and that the Fed can stay in control,” said Elyse
Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump
said the economy could see “a
period of transition” as his tariff policies rattled markets. He
granted a
reprieve from duties on select Canadian and Mexican imports, but this
exemption is set to expire April 2.
Investors will monitor weekly jobless
claims data on Thursday, as well as the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey
and a report on existing home sales.
On the quarterly earnings front, Darden Restaurants, Nike, FedEx and Micron Technology are set to
report Thursday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Powell Sees US Growth Slowing and Inflation
Rising
March 19, 2025 at 10:24 PM GMT
Jerome Powell weighed in on the state of
the US economy Wednesday, and while the Fed is holding rates steady, its chairman’s
outlook wasn’t entirely reassuring. Unsurprisingly, he pointed to Donald
Trump’s polices as one reason why inflation
is reigniting. The central bank sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection
and Powell noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing.
“Inflation has started to move up,” he said, adding that “there may be a delay
in further progress over the course of this year.”
Investors have reacted negatively to
Trump’s global trade war and the mounting retaliation from abroad, with the
S&P 500 falling close to 10% from mid-February. Trump meanwhile
has done little to ease recession fears, with the Republican saying the economy
faces a “period
of transition” and that his tariffs will eventually mean more US jobs. Some
economists have suggested the opposite, dubbing tariffs a “lose-lose.”
Powell was, as always, more
modulated, saying recession odds have moved up but aren’t high. He
pointed to so-called soft data as a concern, but pushed back against a
University of Michigan survey showing a sharp increase in long-term
inflation expectations. Inasmuch as markets today looked to Powell for
direction, the takeaway was that things could be worse.
Powell
Sees US Growth Slowing and Inflation Rising: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
Bank of England set to keep interest rates on hold
as global uncertainty grows
20 March 2025
UK interest rates are set to stay at 4.5%,
with another cut to borrowing costs unlikely while the Bank of England assesses
mounting global uncertainty, experts have said.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday.
The MPC has been gradually cutting
borrowing costs since August, easing pressure on some borrowers who have been
able to offer lower mortgage rates.
This has been possible while the rate of
UK inflation has been steadily falling from the highs reached in 2023, at the
peak of the cost-of-living crisis.
But the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey has
been keen to stress that the committee wants to take a “gradual and careful
approach” to reducing rates while monitoring changes in the UK and global
economy.
Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose
to 3% in January, with price pressure mainly being driven by energy prices,
water bills and bus fares.
At the same time, the UK economy has been
teetering on the edge of decline – with gross domestic product (GDP) rising by
0.1% over the final three months of the year but contracting by 0.1% in
January.
The UK’s economic forecast was cut this
week by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),
which warned that “further fragmentation of the global economy” was a
significant concern amid trade tensions sparked by US President Donald Trump.
This would likely increase inflation
around the world and have an impact on living standards, the OECD warned.
Robert Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak,
economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the MPC will “have to consider US
President Trump’s actions” which have been “driving an equity market sell-off
and skyrocketing uncertainty” and therefore fuelling concerns over the outlook
for global economic growth.
But they added that the MPC is “as unable
as anyone else to predict Mr Trump’s next move”.
The committee last month insisted that it
is not yet known how tariffs – which have been placed on China, Canada and
Mexico – will impact the UK economy.
More
Bank
of England set to keep interest rates on hold as global uncertainty grows
In other news,BYD promises superfast EV
charging. Well if they say so, but how safe is superfast charging and where
will all the superfast electricity come from?
New BYD charging tech promises to match refuelling
speeds for petrol and diesel cars
19 March 2025
Latest breakthrough aims to 'completely
eliminate' charging anxiety by adding more than a mile of range a second,
Chinese EV-maker claims
Chinese auto maker BYD has today unveiled
a new electric vehicle (EV) charging technology which it claims will match
refuelling speeds of petrol and diesel cars, adding more than a mile of range
for every second charged.
According to the world's largest EV
manufacturer, the Super e-Platform achieves a charging power of 1MW, meaning It
can add two kilometres of range per second and provide a five-minute flash
charge that delivers 400 kilometres of driving range.
BYD claims this means its technology
offers the world's fastest mass-production charging speed, enabled by a new
generation of automotive-grade silicon carbide power chips developed with a
voltage rating of up to 1,500V.
Moreover, it states the Super e-Platform
is the world's first mass-produced passenger car platform to feature an
"all-domain kilovolt high-voltage architecture", while enables
kilovolt-level capacity across the battery, motor, power supply, and air
conditioning systems of a car.
At the platform's launch event in
Shenzhen, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Group, said the new
technology would help to wipe out the biggest remaining "pain point"
for EV users.
"To completely eliminate users'
charging anxiety, our goal is to make EV charging as fast as refuelling a
gasoline car - achieving 'oil-electric parity' in charging speed," he
said.
BYD now plans to build more than 4,000MW
flash-charging stations across China, where its cars account for around
one-in-three of all new EVs sold, including pure battery cars and plug-in
hybrids.
In addition to its own stations, BYD has
developed "dual gun charging" technology that it claims can instantly
upgrade fast chargers to ultra-fast chargers and superchargers to flash
chargers.
This so-called "intelligent
boost" technology - which has been hailed as another world first - ensures
compatibility with public charging stations, enabling convenient ultra-fast
charging in a huge variety of locations.
BYD's latest announcement comes after the
EV giant recently revealed that it has raised $5.6bn to accelerate its overseas
expansion plans as it looks to "put down roots" in Europe.
According to reports earlier this month, the Shenzhen-based firm
sold 129.8 million shares at HK$335.20 in what was the largest share sale in
Hong Kong since food-delivery platform Meituan raised $10bn in 2021.
The company sold 433,000 vehicles outside
of China last year, accounting for more than 10 per cent of its total sales
volume, as it looks to bring its cost-competitive models to a wide range of new
markets.
News of BYD's latest charge point
innovation comes after data from the Department for Transport (DfT) confirmed
the UK's charging network had powered past a 75,000 unit milestone and is now
adding a new charger every 29 minutes.
The department said the charge point roll
out would continue to accelerate, with a further 100,000 on-street and local
chargers set to be installed in the coming years in smaller towns and rural
areas thanks to £381m from the Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Fund
(LEVI).
The charging industry is slated to invest
over £6bn in the coming years, boosting hopes the charging network will expand
fast enough to keep track with soaring demand as more EVs hit the roads.
The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis.
Ben Bernanke
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fleeing the scene: Investors have dumped a record
amount of US stock as stagflation fears bite
March 18, 2025
- Global
fund managers dumped a record amount of US stock during last week's
sell-off, BofA found.
- The
surveyed investors expressed pessimism around the global economic-growth
picture.
- Stagflation
was a commonly-cited fear, with expectations for the scenario at the
highest since late 2023.
As US stocks slipped
into a 10% correction last
week, investors were dumping shares at a record clip.
Global fund managers reduced their
allocations to US equities by the most ever between March 7 and 13, according
to a Bank of America survey featuring 171 investors overseeing a combined $426
billion in assets.
Bank of America says the rotation out of
US stocks into international assets like eurozone, UK, and emerging-market
equities was driven by concerns of an economic
slowdown.
Key among investor worries is the
possibility of stagflation, which involves a
toxic mix of below-trend growth and persistently high inflation. It effectively
ties the Fed's hands, leaving them unable to raise or lower rates in order to
address either situation.
71% of fund managers said they expected a
stagflation to hit the global economy over the next 12 months, the survey
showed.
The main culprit in the stagflation
narrative is Trump's
trade war.
After an initial boom period built around pro-business expectations, the luster
has worn off, and investors and economists alike have started to fret about a
global slowdown.
The chart below shows how pronounced
stagflation worry has become in recent months:
Another common refrain in the fund manager
survey was that US
exceptionalism as
we know it may be over. 69% of fund managers said they think US outperformance
relative to the rest of the world has "peaked."
As such, following the record-sized
allocation trimming last week, fund managers are now positioned 23% underweight
the US equity market, the lowest since June 23.
Bank of America strategists led by Michael
Hartnett do see the possibility of a near-term rebound in US stocks, with
the S&P
500 potentially
climbing past 6,000 in the second quarter if concerns about inflation and the
trade war begin to subside. On the flip side if the economy tips into a
recession, the bank says the S&P 500 could drop below 5,000.
Fleeing the scene: Investors have dumped a record amount of US stock as
stagflation fears bite
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Paxlovid
2.0: Next generation of COVID antiviral hits final human trials
By Rich Haridy March 18, 2025
Back
in 2021, at the height of the pandemic, scientists at Pfizer revealed the
development of a novel antiviral molecule, designed to hinder the SARS-CoV-2
virus’s ability to replicate. Clinical trials
moved quickly,
and by the end of the year we had the very
first oral COVID antiviral, called nirmatrelvir.
The
pace of the drug’s development was astonishing. Despite using the backbone of a
molecule previously produced in the early 2000s to combat the first SARS epidemic,
scientists deployed every bit of cutting-edge technology available to create a
bespoke drug that could target this newly emerged coronavirus.
The
result was a medicine called
Paxlovid.
But as with many things developed quickly, it was far from perfect. One of the
big problems with this novel antiviral molecule was that the human body
metabolized it swiftly. So to slow that process down the molecule had to be
co-administered with another drug called ritonavir.
Ritonavir
was an older drug, originally developed in the 1980s as an antiviral to combat
HIV. While it mildly worked to stifle the replication of HIV, scientists
quickly learned it was even more effective at blocking the activity of a key
enzyme our body uses to metabolize some foreign molecules. So ritonavir
ultimately became a useful drug to give alongside some other drugs to help
boost their efficacy.
It
was an imperfect, but effective solution.
This
combination of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir was undeniably valuable, helping
vulnerable patients clear the virus from their system and reducing rates of
death and hospitalization. However, the side effects from ritonavir were
problematic. Anyone who has taken Paxlovid is likely familiar with the awful
metallic taste that comes with taking it. This is from ritonavir.
But
more dangerous are the effects ritonavir has on other drugs a patient may be
taking. The enzyme ritonavir inhibits doesn’t just block the body’s metabolism
of the coronavirus antiviral. It also slows the body metabolizing a whole
assortment of drugs, from opioids like oxycodene to immunosuppressive medicines
and even some sedating drugs like midazolam.
Basically,
Paxlovid was unsafe for a whole bunch of patients.
So
for the last couple of years scientists at Pfizer have been doing some nifty
chemistry, tweaking the nirmatrelvir molecule in the hopes of finding a way to
slow how quickly the body metabolizes it without the need for ritonavir.
Through a combination of machine learning and AI-driven modeling, the
scientists could simulate the effects of scores of different molecules before
finally homing in on the most likely effective candidate. The result is a
new molecule that has been called ibuzatrelvir.
Preclinical
and preliminary human tests in 2024 revealed ibuzatrelvir was safe and
potentially at least as effective as its first-generation counterpart. In
December 2024 Pfizer initiated
the last phase of testing, a large Phase 3 trial.
---- If all goes to
plan ibuzatrelvir could be available as soon as 2026.
Paxlovid 2.0: Next
gen COVID antiviral in final human trials
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
World's
first long-life sodium-ion power bank launched
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal March 18, 2025
Japanese hardware brand Elecom has just launched what
it claims is the world's first power bank to feature a sodium-ion battery inside. It promises significantly longer cycle
life than traditional lithium-ion batteries, as well as the ability to operate
in extremely hot and cold climes.
On the outside, the affectionately named DE-C55L-9000
looks similar to the vast majority of power banks on the market, with a rounded
brick shape housing its 9,000-mAh battery, a 45-W USB Type-C and an 18-W Type-A
port, and charging indicator LEDs.
What's
more interesting than the rest is the tech inside. A sodium-ion battery is
pretty similar to a lithium-ion battery in terms of how it works and how it's
constructed – but it uses cheaper and more
abundantly available sodium for the cathode material, and sodium salts
instead of lithium salts for the electrolyte.
That means you don't need to mine as many valuable
metals like lithium, cobalt, and copper to make these batteries. Elecom's power
bank also works safely at temperatures ranging from -30 °F (-34 °C) to 122 °F
(50 °C), which means it could be a good choice for people working in difficult
conditions outdoors. And due to the properties of the batteries' materials,
they pose a far lower risk of catching on fire.
The other big draw with this tech is that it has a much
longer cycle life – the number of times it can be charged and discharged before
the cell's energy density drops – than lithium-ion batteries. Elecom says its
power bank is good for 5,000 charge cycles, compared to lithium-ion's usual
range 500 to 1,000 cycles.
This is cool to see, because it's one of the first
major commercially available sodium-ion products on the market. This battery
tech has been in the works since the 1970s, and it potentially presents a lower cost per kWh than lithium-ion. Plus, it not only works the same way as lithium-ion batteries, but can
also be manufactured similarly too – so producing more of these won't require
substantial tooling costs.
Sodium-ion batteries can also be shipped at zero volts
– in stable and inactive state, if you will – which means they can be
transported with a far lower risk of fires.
What's more, it could reduce our dependence on harmful
mining operations to extract the metals needed for lithium-ion batteries, like
cobalt, copper, and graphite. Sodium is abundantly available in sea salt, as
well as in the crust of the earth.
Now, back to that power bank. Elecom's portable puck
costs 9,980 JPY (US$67) in Japan, and is available in limited quantities.
That's actually a fair bit more expensive than two comparable 10,000-mAh power banks from Anker that I looked at, which will set you back by about $16 - $24. This one is also heavier at
12.3 oz (350 g) than Anker's offerings (7.5 oz - 8.6 oz/212 g - 244 g).
More
World's first
sodium-ion power bank launched
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
To
avoid large and unsustainable budget deficits, the nation will ultimately have
to choose among higher taxes, modifications to entitlement programs such as
Social Security and Medicare, less spending on everything else from education
to defense, or some combination of the above.
Ben Bernanke
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