Baltic
Dry Index. 1602 -19 Brent Crude 73.63
Spot
Gold 3085 U S 2 Year Yield 3.89 -0.08
US
Federal Debt. 36.655 trillion.
If all
else fails immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Little need for my
input this weekend as the articles below adequately sum up investor fears about
the impact of Trump Tariff Wednesday and the start of Great Depression 2.0.
Dow
closes 700 points lower as inflation and tariff fears worsen
Updated
Fri, Mar 28 20257:13 PM EDT
Stocks sold off sharply on Friday, pressured by
growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy as well as a more grim outlook on
inflation.
The Dow
Jones Industrial Average closed down 715.80 points, or 1.69%, at
41,583.90. The S&P 500 shed
1.97% to 5,580.94, ending the week down for the fifth time in the last six
weeks. The Nasdaq Composite plunged
2.7% to settle at 17,322.99.
Shares of several technology giants dropped, putting
pressure on the broader market. Google-parent Alphabet lost 4.9%, while Meta and Amazon each shed 4.3%.
This week, the S&P 500 lost 1.53%, while the
30-stock Dow shed 0.96%. The Nasdaq declined by 2.59%. With this latest losing
week, Nasdaq is now on pace for a more than 8% monthly decline, which would be
its worst monthly performance since December 2022.
Stocks took a leg lower on Friday after the
University of Michigan’s final read on consumer sentiment for March reflected
the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993.
Friday’s core
personal consumption expenditures price index also came out
hotter-than-expected, rising 2.8% in February and reflecting a 0.4% increase
for the month, stoking concerns about persistent inflation. Economists surveyed
by Dow Jones had been looking for respective numbers of 2.7% and 0.3%. Consumer
spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast, according to
fresh data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
“The market is getting squeezed by both sides. There
is uncertainty around next week’s reciprocal tariffs hitting the major
exporting sectors like tech alongside concerns about a weakening consumer
facing higher prices hitting areas like discretionary,” said Scott Helfstein,
head of investment strategy at Global X.
Helfstein added, however, that the news on inflation
and consumer spending “was not that bad” and could simply represent a hiccup in
near-term sentiment as investors struggle to understand the Trump
administration’s new policies.
“Despite today’s sell-off and broader market
volatility of the past few weeks, there have not been big inflows into money
markets. It seems like a lot of investors are trying to ride this out,” he
said.
The latest inflation report comes amid a flurry of
tariff announcements from the White House, which have roiled the market in
recent weeks. Investors are looking ahead to April 2, when President Donald
Trump is expected to announce further tariff plans, for further clarity.
On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told
Trump that the Canadian government will implement retaliatory tariffs following
Wednesday’s announcements. Bloomberg earlier reported that the European Union
is identifying concessions it could make to Trump’s administration to
reduce the reciprocal tariffs from the U.S.
Trump earlier this week announced a
25% tariff on “all cars that are not made in the United States,” a
decision that hurt auto stocks and raised concerns of an economic slowdown.
Stock
market updates for March 28, 2025
US
Consumers Are Panicking Over Reignited Inflation
March 28, 2025
The Trump administration’s continuing barrage of
tariff threats, as well as the Republican president’s looming deadline for
automakers next week, sent investors running
for the exits again on Friday. With just one session left until
the end of a quarter that’s set to be the worst for the S&P
500 since 2022, the gauge slid another 2%.
It also didn’t help that the latest data showed US
consumer sentiment tumbled to a more than two-year low while long-term
inflation expectations jumped
to a 32-year high as American anxiety over Trump’s handling of the
economy continues to build.
The final March sentiment index declined
to 57 from 64.7 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. The
latest reading was below both the 57.9 preliminary number and the median
estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Consumers
expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.1% over the next five to
10 years, the data released Friday showed. That’s the highest since—wait for
it—1993.
Consumers also see costs rising 5% over the
next 12 months, the highest since 2022. But even more foreboding is what
Americans see for the country’s jobs market. For years, the US has left
the rest of the post-pandemic world behind with low employment levels not seen
since the 1960s, when Richard Nixon was president. “Notably,” said Joanne Hsu,
director of the Michigan survey, “two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment
to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009.”
US
Consumers Are Panicking Over Reignited Inflation: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
Now Comes The Great Big
Trump-O-Nomics Auto Crash
|
What can you do when the nation elects an economic
crackpot who foolishly thinks that the blessings of trillions in global trade
amount to theft from the United States? And, on top of that folly, has a
wide-open unilateral authority under the various ultra-rubbery trade statutes
to impose billions in “taxation without representation” on the American people
in the guise of import tariffs.
Well, that’s where we are right now—meaning that the
brown stuff will be hitting the fan with relentless caprice from here into
so-called Liberation Day (April 2) and beyond. In fact, today’s installment in
the form of the 25% auto tariff announced last night is utterly irrational and
unjustified, but it’s just the warm-up act: The so-called “reciprocal trade”
levies to be imposed apparently on all 232 of America’s global trading partners
will literally amount to the “Mother of All Shit Shows”, as we have been
documenting in recent days...
More subscription required.
Now
Comes The Great Big Trump-O-Nomics Auto Crash
Flight bookings between
Canada and US down 70% amid Trump tariff war
Airline capacity
between two countries reduced through October 2025 as high-profile incidents of
Ice arrests on rise
Thu 27 Mar 2025 14.38 GMT
Airline travel between Canada and the US is
“collapsing” amid Donald
Trump’s tariff
war, with flight bookings between the two countries down by over 70%, newly
released data suggests.
According to data from the aviation analytics
company OAG,
airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through October
2025, with the biggest cuts occurring between the months of July and August,
which is considered peak travel season. Passenger bookings on Canada to US
routes are currently down by over 70% compared to the same period last year.
Comparing the available bookings from March 2024 to
March 2025, OAG looked at how many people have booked trans-border flights in
the six-month period between April through September. It found that the number
of tickets booked was down anywhere from 71% to 76%.
Total capacity available for passengers on flights
between the two countries has also seen a reduction, likely a response to
decreasing demands. The data shows that more than 320,000 seats have been
removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of
October, with the highest cuts, 3.5%, also occurring during the peak summer
months.
But the steep decline suggests that the current
capacity cuts do not even begin to cover the current disinterest in traveling
to the US.
The dramatic drop in bookings suggests that Canadian
travelers are holding off on making reservations, probably due to ongoing
uncertainty surrounding the tariff war. Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney,
called the latest
round of Trump’s tariffs a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.
Though a decline in travel between Canada and the US was
expected, the substantial 70% drop in bookings could require drastic changes
for airlines, such as Air Canada, which is the airline that has the largest
network of border crossings between the neighboring countries.
Beyond the trade dispute, some Canadians say they
feel increasingly uneasy crossing into the US following several high-profile
incidents of foreign visitors being detained
by Ice.
Flight
bookings between Canada and US down 70% amid Trump tariff war | Air transport |
The Guardian
In other news, is the
sky starting to fall?
Moody's
says US fiscal strength on course for continued decline
26 March 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Ratings agency Moody's said on
Tuesday that the U.S.' fiscal strength is on track for a continued multi-year
decline as budget deficits widen and debt becomes less affordable.
The agency said in a report that the country's
fiscal health deteriorated further since Moody's lowered its outlook on the
U.S. triple-A rating in November 2023.
The report comes amid heightened uncertainty in U.S.
financial markets as President Donald Trump's decision to impose punitive
tariffs on key trading partners has sparked investor fears of higher price
pressures and a sharp economic slowdown.
"Even in a very positive and low probability
economic and financial scenario, debt affordability remains materially weaker
than for other Aaa-rated and highly rated sovereigns," Moody's said.
It projects debt to gross domestic product, a key
ratio in assessing a country's finances, will rise to around 130% by 2035 from
nearly 100% in 2025. Debt affordability will worsen at a faster rate, with
interest payments accounting for 30% of revenue by 2035 from 9% in 2021, it
said.
Moody's is the last among major ratings agencies to
keep a top, triple-A rating for U.S. sovereign debt, though it lowered its
outlook in late 2023 due to wider fiscal deficits and higher interest debt
payments.
Fitch cut the U.S. sovereign rating by one notch to
AA+ from AAA in 2023, citing fiscal deterioration and repeated down-the-wire
debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its
bills. It was the second major rating agency to strip the United States of its
top triple-A rating, after Standard & Poor's did so after the 2011 debt
ceiling crisis.
Investors use credit ratings to assess the risk profile
of companies and governments when they raise financing in debt capital markets.
Generally, the lower a borrower's rating, the higher its financing costs.
Moody's said on Tuesday that lower U.S. debt
affordability has meant that the central role of the dollar and the Treasury
market in global financial markets has become more critical in supporting the
triple-A rating.
However, the potential negative economic impact of
tariffs as well as the prospect of unfunded tax cuts complicates the picture.
"We see diminished prospects that these
strengths will continue to offset widening fiscal deficits and declining debt
affordability," it said.
Republicans are pushing a $4.5 trillion tax cut
extension, but its impact on deficits remains uncertain without major spending
cuts, which could clash with Trump’s pledges to protect social programs.
Moody's said large spending cuts that require
bipartisan support in Congress will be politically difficult to implement.
Other spending cuts, such as the ones spearheaded by
the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk to
reduce wasteful spending, are minor compared to mandatory expenditures and are
unlikely to generate substantial savings in the short term.
Tariffs may offer temporary revenue support, but
over time, persistently high tariffs are likely to hinder growth, counteracting
their positive effect on revenues, it said.
Moody's says US fiscal strength on course for continued decline
Employers
still nervous as £20bn tax rise ‘hangs over like a fog’, survey says
Friday 28 March 2025 6:00 am
Employers remain pessimistic about hiring new staff
as businesses “hoped for more” from the Spring Statement, according to the
Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC).
Chancellor Rachel Reeves‘ Spring Statement saw multi-billion pound spending
commitments on defence and construction as she vowed to “kickstart economic
growth”.
But a new survey of more than 700 UK employers
suggests that businesses remain downbeat about taking on new staff.
The survey was conducted before Reeves delivered
her Spring Statement but a note from REC
said: “Businesses hoped for more from this week’s Spring Statement to help them
drive growth.”
The research showed a “very gentle trend of
improvements” in business confidence but both measures taken – confidence in
hiring and confidence in the UK economy – remained in the red.
Medium-sized and larger employers were more
optimistic than small businesses as confidence among firms with up to 50
employees barely changed, the survey said.
REC’s last survey in January suggested that the rise
in employers’ national insurance contributions had taken its toll on hiring
intentions
Neil Carberry, REC’s chief executive, said that
remained the case in their latest survey.
“We have seen business sentiment begin to improve
this Spring, though the impact of the national insurance hike hangs over this
like a fog,” he said.
The changes to employers’ national insurance contributions, which will
come into effect from next week, will see firms pay an increase rate of 15 per
cent of tax on earnings above a threshold of £5,000.
He urged Reeves to take action and introduce a raft of
business-friendly policies to help the job market.
“Too often, the government talks a good game but
day-to-day action paints business as the problem rather than the solution,” he
said.
Carberry urged the Labour government to revise its
flagship Employment flights Bill and make a “commitment to genuine partnership”
that goes beyond setting up meetings.
“British business wants this government to succeed –
but they need to support us to help them do it.”
Employers in London are negative about hiring in the
short and medium term, representing low expectations among City firms for
substantial economic growth this year.
“[Overall] optimism is tempered only a little by
London, often a bellwether for the economy,” Carberry said.
Employers nervous as tax rise ‘hangs over like a fog’, survey says
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act
The Tariff Act of
1930 (codified at 19 U.S.C. ch. 4), commonly known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff or Hawley–Smoot
Tariff,[1] was a law that implemented protectionist trade policies in the United States.
Sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, it was signed by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. The act raised
U.S. tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods.[2]
Excluding duty-free
imports, when enacted, the tariffs under the act were the second highest in
United States history, exceeded by only the Tariff of 1828.[3] The act prompted retaliatory tariffs by many
other countries.[4]
The act and tariffs
imposed by U.S.'s trading partners in retaliation were major factors in the
reduction of American exports and imports by 67% during the Great Depression.[5]
Economists and economic
historians have agreed that the passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff worsened the
effects of the Great Depression.[6]
The League of Nations held a World Economic Conference at Geneva in 1927 and its final report concluded that "the
time has come to put an end to tariffs, and to move in the opposite direction". Vast debts and reparations
from World War I could be repaid only through gold, services, or goods, but the
only items available on that scale were goods.
Many of the governments
represented by the delegates to the conference did the opposite, however, and
in 1928, France was the first, passing a new tariff law and quota system.[7]
By the late 1920s, the
U.S. economy had made exceptional gains in productivity because of electrification, which was a critical factor in mass production. Another contributing factor to economic
growth was replacing horses and mules with motorcars, trucks, and tractors.
One-sixth to one-quarter of farmland that had been devoted to feeding horses
and mules, was freed up, contributing to a surplus in farm produce. Although
nominal and real wages had increased, they did not keep up with the productivity gains.
Senator Smoot contended
that raising the tariff on imports would alleviate the overproduction problem,
but the market reality was that the United States had been running a trade account surplus, and although manufactured goods imports were
rising, manufactured exports were rising even faster. Food exports had been
falling and were in a trade account deficit, but the approximate values of food
imports only amounted to half the value of manufactured imports.[8]
---- Smoot was a Republican from Utah and chairman of the Senate
Finance Committee. Willis C. Hawley, a Republican from Oregon, was chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means. During the 1928 United States presidential election, one of Herbert Hoover's campaign promises was to help beleaguered
farmers by increasing tariffs on agricultural products. Hoover won, and
Republicans maintained comfortable majorities in the House and the Senate during 1928. The
House passed a version of the act in May 1929, increasing tariffs on
agricultural and industrial goods alike. The House bill passed on a vote of 264
to 147, with 244 Republicans and 20 Democrats voting in favor of the bill.[10] The Senate debated its bill until March 1930,
with many members trading votes based on industries in their states. The Senate
bill passed on a vote of 44 to 42, with 39 Republicans and 5 Democrats voting
in favor of the bill.[10] The conference committee then unified the two versions, largely
by raising tariffs to the higher levels passed by the House.[11] The House passed the conference bill on a vote
of 222 to 153, with the support of 208 Republicans and 14 Democrats.[10]
In May 1930, a petition
was signed by 1,028 economists in the United States asking President Hoover to
veto the legislation. The petition had been organized by Paul Douglas, Irving Fisher, James T. F. G. Wood, Frank Graham, Ernest Patterson, Henry Seager, Frank Taussig, and Clair Wilcox.[12][13] Automobile executive Henry Ford also spent an evening at the White House trying to convince Hoover to veto the bill,
calling it "an economic stupidity".[14] J. P. Morgan's Chief Executive Thomas W. Lamont said he "almost went down on [his]
knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley–Smoot tariff".[15]
While Hoover joined the
economists in opposing the bill, calling it "vicious, extortionate, and
obnoxious" because he felt it would undermine the commitment he had
pledged to international cooperation, he eventually signed the bill after he
yielded to influence from his own political party (Republican), his Cabinet
(who had threatened to resign), and other business leaders.[16] After the bill had become law, in retaliation,
Canada and other countries raised their own tariffs on U.S. goods.[17] Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke against the act during his
successful campaign for president during 1932.[11]
More
Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act - Wikipedia
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Fire likely caused by
dumped lithium battery
26 March 2025
A
large blaze at a recycling centre was likely caused by a used lithium-ion
battery, firefighters have said.
The fire affected 35 tonnes of waste
at the Cordon's Farm site in Long
Green Road, Braintree, on Monday.
Essex County Fire and Rescue Service watch manager
Darren Hockley said residents must check with their local council how to
dispose of lithium-ion batteries properly and "not in a skip or with
domestic household waste".
Tom Cunningham, the Conservative cabinet member for
environment at Braintree District Council, thanked firefighters for their
"swift action".
"This incident serves as a reminder to us all
of the importance of taking extra care when disposing of batteries," said
Cunningham.
Braintree District Council has details on its
website about how to dispose of
electrical items, external.
Braintree recycling fire likely caused by lithium battery - BBC News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten maestro. Approx. 11 minutes.
Johann
Samuel Endler (1694-1762) - Sinfonia (in D) à 6 strumenti (1757)
Johann Samuel
Endler (1694-1762) - Sinfonia (in D) à 6 strumenti (1757) - YouTube
This
weekend’s history diversion. The fight to abolish slavery in the British Empire
1833. Approx. 52 minutes.
Why Did Britain
Abolish Slavery in 1833? (Pt 2) | Watch
All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another,
has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of
payment.
John Kenneth Galbraith
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