Baltic Dry Index. 1436 +12 Brent Crude 69.91
Spot Gold 2917 US 2 Year Yield 3.94 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 36.585 trillion!!
“Tariffs that save jobs in the steel industry mean higher steel prices, which in turn means fewer sales of American steel products around the world and losses of far more jobs than are saved.”
Thomas Sowell.
With US trade policy changing just about every hour, it’s bunker time for most punters in the stock casinos.
On the more positive side, can President Trump bring an end to NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine?
But will that be enough to prevent a stock casino correction turning into a stocks bear market in 2025?
Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports
take effect, Europe retaliates
Published Wed, Mar 12 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs
on steel and aluminum imports came into effect Wednesday, resulting in swift
counter-measures from the European Union.
The White House confirmed the duties —
which will affect Canada, Australia, the EU and others — late Tuesday, but said
that Trump no longer planned to raise tariffs on the metals from Canada to 50%.
The European Union responded swiftly,
saying it would impose counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28.33 billion)
worth of U.S. goods starting in April. The counter-measures are designed to
“protect European businesses, workers and consumers from the impact of these
unjustified trade restrictions,” the European Commission said in a statement.
It marks the latest development in a
simmering trade war that has been marked by bold promises of tariffs — and
subsequent reversals and delays — by Trump.
The trade tensions have hit markets in
recent days amid growing concerns that the duties could push the world’s
biggest economy toward a recession.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
said that Trump’s move to impose the metal tariffs was “entirely unjustified.”
“It’s against the spirit of our two
nations’ enduring friendship and fundamentally at odds with the benefits that
our economic partnership has delivered over more than 70 years,” he said at
a press conference.
Last month, Trump said he was considering
tariff exemptions on Australian steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.
Albanese added that Australia will not
impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports as that would only serve to inflate
prices for Australian consumers.
Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports take effect, Europe retaliates
Trade War Whiplash Continues as Markets Keep
Sinking
March 11, 2025 at 10:06 PM GMT
Stocks whipped around today thanks
to some
wild new tariff threats and reversals from Donald Trump. But when
markets closed, the color on the board was still red as investors continued to
flee equities amid growing uncertainty over the US president’s economic
broadsides.
Trump sent out an all caps post on social
media threatening Canada with even bigger steel tariffs than the ones he
threatened last week, but then promptly
started backpedaling after Ontario announced it would suspend a
largely symbolic 25% surcharge on electricity sent to the US.
Trump has a series of tariff threats and
counter-threats pending against America’s neighbor to the north, some
supposedly set to take effect tomorrow, others contingent on Canada reversing
its own retaliatory levies. For its part, Canada
said it will keep its trade retaliation in place until the US lifts
its own tariffs and commits to free trade. This from Mark Carney, who will
succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister within days.
But the latest tariff drama also sent the Canadian dollar to a weekly low before once again rising. And while some experts increased the odds Trump will bring an end to America’s post-pandemic success story, the US isn’t the only country looking at a potential recession. With the trade war threatening to send its economy into a downturn, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates tomorrow for a seventh straight meeting.
Trade
War Whiplash Continues as Markets Keep Sinking - Bloomberg
Dow drops more than 450 points, S&P 500 posts
back-to-back loss over Trump tariff uncertainty: Live updates
Updated Tue, Mar 11 2025 4:54 PM EDT
The S&P 500 slid in a head-spinning
session for traders as they grappled with new tariffs proposed by President
Donald Trump that were in flux throughout most of Tuesday. The trade policy
uncertainty has brought the benchmark to the brink of a correction, which is
defined as a decline of 10% from its high.
The S&P 500 ended the
session 0.76% lower, falling to 5,572.07. At its low of Tuesday’s session, the
index was 10% below its record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 478.23
points, or 1.14%, to close at 41,433.48. The Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.18%, closing at 17,436.10.
The S&P 500 was in the green at one
point during the trading session before Trump declared on Truth Social that
Canadian steel and aluminum duties would double to 50% from 25%, effective
Wednesday.
The president made the move in response to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s
surcharge on electricity exported to the U.S.
Later in the day, Ford said he was
temporarily suspending the 25% surcharge after talking with Commerce Secretary
Howard Lutnick.
Finally, top Trump trade advisor Peter
Navarro said on CNBC on Tuesday afternoon that Trump would not hike the tariffs
on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. The 25% duty that was originally
planned, however, would still take effect.
This is the latest in a series of
disorderly trade policy moves that have rattled corporate and consumer
confidence and weighed on markets over the past three weeks.
On Monday, the Nasdaq saw its worst day
since September 2022, dropping 4%. The 30-stock Dow lost nearly 900 points.
Citigroup this week lowered its rating
on U.S. stocks to neutral from overweight, pointing to a “pause in U.S.
exceptionalism” as the reason.
“There’s clearly a tolerance for pain on
the part of the administration in pursuit of trade goals that are not
necessarily entirely economic in nature,” said Ross Mayfield, Baird investment
strategist. “At this point I’m still in the camp that we’re not on the doorstep
of a recession, but maybe a slowdown or growth scare. Non-recession sell-offs
tend to be shorter and milder than the recessionary ones.”
Delta Air Lines added to
recession worries Tuesday as the airline slashed its earnings outlook due
to weaker U.S. demand, pushing the
stock down 7.3%. Other travel-related stocks followed suit with Disney and Airbnb both off 5%.
Along with haphazard tariff moves,
comments from the administration in recent days have stoked investors’ fears
about the economy. On Tuesday, Trump again appeared unperturbed by the stock
market’s recent slides. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go
down but, you know what, we have to rebuild our country,” he said when asked
about the stock market, according to the White House pool report.
Investors are eagerly anticipating the
release of February’s consumer price index due Wednesday.
“It’ll be really important that we don’t
see an upside surprise on CPI because at this point, the Fed does have plenty
of dry powder to step in to cut rates and try to boost demand if the economy
were to meaningfully slow,” Mayfield added. “But they can only really do that
if they feel that inflation expectations and inflation are well anchored.”
Stock market news for March 11, 2025
CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. and Canada skirmish over
tariffs, roiling markets
Published Tue, Mar 11 2025 9:03 PM EDT
The White House engaged in a heated — but
brief — tariff skirmish with Canada, doubling levies on its northern neighbor’s
steel and aluminum imports to 50% at one point. That was in response to Ontario
Premier Doug Ford saying he would impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports
to the U.S.
But cooler heads prevailed, and the trade
war has been suspended temporarily. Despite the resolution, investors were
unsettled by the constant ruction over tariffs and sold off stocks, dragging
down S&P 500 to correction territory during the trading session.
What you need to know today
Markets’ downward slide continues
On
Tuesday, the S&P 500 slid 0.76%,
and was 10% below its
record close at its lows during the trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.14%
and the Nasdaq Composite was down
0.18%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 1.7%. Shares
of Volkswagen dropped 1.1%
after the German auto giant reported a 15% year-on-year
drop in annual operating profit on Tuesday.
U.S. CPI projections
The
U.S. consumer price index for February, out Wednesday, is forecast to show an
increase of 0.3% for a broad array of goods and services. That projection holds
both for the all-items measure and the core index that excludes volatile food
and energy prices. On an annual basis, that would put headline inflation
at 2.9% and the core reading at 3.2%, both 0.1 percentage point lower than in
January.
Trading barbs
U.S.
President Donald Trump retracted plans to raise tariffs on
Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50% on Wednesday, top White House
trade advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC on Tuesday. Trump initially doubled
tariffs on Canada because Ontario announced a 25% surcharge on
electricity exports to the U.S. The province later suspended it after U.S.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick agreed to more trade talks.
CNBC Daily Open:
The U.S. and Canada skirmish over tariffs
Stock futures rise as key consumer inflation
report looms: Live updates
Updated Wed, Mar 12 2025 1:34 AM EDT
Stock futures ticked higher early
Wednesday after President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs
on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. took effect. Investors also
awaited a consumer inflation report due Wednesday.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
93 points, or 0.22%. S&P
500 futures were 0.29% higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained
around 0.33%.
The after-hours action comes after a
whirlwind day for tariff policy that ultimately resulted in losses for all
three of the major averages. At its lowest point in the session, the S&P 500 was down 10% from
its closing high. The 30-stock Dow closed
nearly 480 points, or 1.1%, lower, and the Nasdaq Composite posted a
roughly 0.2% decline.
Earlier Tuesday, Trump said he would
double import duties on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50% as of
Wednesday. That move was in response to Ontario’s decision to tack
on a 25% levy on electricity exported to the U.S.
Later in the day, Ontario Premier Doug
Ford said he would pause
the surcharge. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro followed that by
telling CNBC on Tuesday afternoon that Trump
would not raise the Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%.
However, the 25% duty on these metals would still go into effect on Wednesday.
Traders are facing another catalyst on
Wednesday: the consumer
price index reading for February. Economists polled by Dow Jones
expect the CPI rose 0.3% last month and they anticipate headline inflation grew
2.9% from 12 months earlier.
The results will inform the Federal
Reserve’s next policy steps at a time when the market’s worries about inflation
and slowing growth are starting to reignite.
“We’re just waiting on some kind of policy
response, either from the Fed or the administration,” 3Fourteen Research
co-founder Warren Pies told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think that’s
going to be a little bit slow coming. And so I don’t think it’s time to buy the
dip just yet.”
Stock market today: Live updates
Finally, an update on that ship collision (actually an allision,) off the Humber estuary that closed some UK ports. No estimates yet on the collisions cost to UK trade. Approx. 21 minutes.
UPDATE:
Solong Rams Anchored US Tanker Stena Immaculate | Ships Abandoned & On Fire
| Port Closed
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Unsurprisingly,
that US v Canada trade war turned ugly fast only for President Trump to U-turn
within hours. Can President Trump be trusted in any trade deals he might reach?
Donald
Trump throws a strop over Canada's latest move: 'You're not even allowed to do
that'
11
March 2025
Donald
Trump has
warned that the US will respond after Ontario's premier
announced a sizable tax increase on electricity
exports, which
could impact 1.5 million Americans.
In
February, the US president ordered 25
per cent tariffs on
goods from Mexico and Canada, along with 10 per cent tariffs on imports from
China and cited
the reasons behind this
move were to hold these countries accountable "to their promises of
halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs
from flowing into our country".
However,
following retaliatory threats, he paused this plan for a month (until March 4),
while additional tariffs are set to be implemented next month (April 2).
Trump
has suggested that Canada could avoid tariff hikes if the country became the
US' "cherished 51st state," and even called Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau as the "Governor of Canada."
Canada's
response
Unsurprisingly,
this didn't go down too well with Canada, as Trudeau sent a clear message in
response by announcing counter-tariffs would be applied to US goods.
Additionally,
Ontario's Premier Doug Ford also threatened to hike prices or even shut off the
power entirely to neighbouring US states in Minnesota, New York, and Michigan,
where 1.5 million US citizens would be affected.
Consequently,
Americans in these states could see their energy bills increase by around $100.
"If
the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off
completely," he told reporters on Monday (March 10). "Believe me when
I say I do not want to do this, I feel terrible for the American people,
because it's not the American people who started this trade war.
"It's
one person who's responsible. That's President Trump."
Taking
to X, formerly Twitter, Ford warned: "The only thing that's certain today
is more uncertainty. A pause on some tariffs means nothing. Until President
Trump removes the threat of tariffs for good, we will be relentless."
Trump
has since hit back
Following
Canada's latest move, Trump has hit back at Ford's plan, declaring: "We
don't need your Cars, we don't need your Lumber, we don't [need] your
Energy."
In
a post to Truth Social, he wrote: "Despite the fact that Canada is
charging the USA from 250 percent to 390 percent Tariffs on many of our farm
products, Ontario just announced a 25 percent surcharge on 'electricity,' of
all things, and you're not even allowed to do that. Because our Tariffs are
reciprocal, we'll just get it all back on April 2."
He
continued: "Canada is a Tariff abuser, and always has been, but the United
States is not going to be subsidizing Canada any longer. We don't need your
Cars, we don't need your Lumber, we don't your Energy, and very soon, you will
find that out. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"
More
Donald Trump
throws a strop over Canada's latest move: 'You're not even allowed to do that'
Goldman
Sachs slashes US economic forecasts as tariff impacts grow 'considerably more
adverse'
March
10, 2025
Goldman
Sachs is the latest Wall Street firm to grow more
concerned about
the path forward for the US economy as President
Trump's tariff policies become reality.
In
a research note on Monday, Goldman's economics team led by Jan Hatzius slashed
its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4%.
"The
reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become
considerably more adverse," Hatzius wrote.
In
its note, Goldman also boosted its projection for the Fed's preferred inflation
gauge to end the year at 3%, up from a prior call in the mid 2% range.
Hatzius
noted these updates mark the first time in about two and a half years that his
team has projected GDP growth below Bloomberg consensus data, which currently
calls for GDP growth north of 2% this year.
Goldman
is the latest in a slew of forecasting teams that now see a more dire outlook
for the US economy.
In
a note to clients on Friday, Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen
moved his 2025 growth forecast down to 1.5% from 1.9% previously.
Gapen
also sees the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the "core" Personal
Consumption Expenditures index — ending the year higher, projecting core PCE to
end 2025 at 2.7%, up from a previous projection of 2.5%.
3
tariff impacts
In
its note on Monday, Goldman's team said it now sees the average US tariff rate
rising by 10 percentage points this year, twice their previous forecast and
five times the level seen during Trump's first administration.
Tariffs
weigh on the overall economic outlook through three key levers, Hatzius wrote.
First,
the new duties are expected to push up consumer prices and, therefore, cut real
income for consumers. Second, they usually come alongside tighter financial
conditions. And third, the uncertainty surrounding the tariff implementation
will likely prompt businesses to "delay investment."
Hatzius
believes the combination of slower growth and sticky inflation can still leave
room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year in June and
December.
But
for now, Trump's policy uncertainty likely keeps the central bank holding rates
steady.
More
Goldman Sachs
slashes US economic forecasts as tariff impacts grow 'considerably more
adverse'
Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They
Might Be Maxed Out.
Recession fears rekindle concerns that
Americans are overstretched on debt
By Telis Demos March 11, 2025 5:30 am ET
American consumers and their credit cards
have helped the U.S. economy weather many rough moments. Now, as recession fears resurface, the worry is that they might be
maxed out.
The stock market’s recent plunge has been
broad. But it has been sharper in a few sectors. Among the most notable is in
consumer lending. Major lenders and card companies American
Express AXP -2.27%decrease;
red down pointing triangle, Capital One
Financial COF 0.93%increase;
green up pointing triangle, Discover
Financial DFS 0.50%increase;
green up pointing triangle and Synchrony
Financial SYF -0.59%decrease;
red down pointing triangle were all down more than 4% on Monday. So
far this year those four are down an average of around 12%, compared with a
4.5% fall in the S&P 500.
This isn’t the first time consumer
lenders’ stocks have borne the brunt of economic concerns. At several points in
the past couple of years, surges in late payments or in banks’ charge-offs of
consumer loans have sent consumer lenders’ shares tumbling; charge-offs are
loans that have been written off as a loss. A big worry is that if Americans
aren’t paying their debts, they won’t be able to spend like before—removing a
critical pillar of the economy.
Those recent incidents were often false signals. Rising delinquency rates were in
many cases concentrated among certain groups of borrowers, in particular people
who took on a lot of new debt during the years of 2021 and 2022. During that
time, many consumers were able to borrow more than they usually could because
they were flush with stimulus payments and the savings forced on them by
lockdowns. Many banks have since made it harder to get cards.
Now, a lot of those bad debts are being finally digested and worked through. Moody’s
Ratings projects auto-loan and credit-card loan charge-offs are actually set to
decline, albeit very modestly, in the latter part of this year.
Yet investors suddenly have fresh
concerns. For one, Americans’ inflation-adjusted debt burdens are starting to
grow further beyond prepandemic levels on a per-household basis. As of the
fourth quarter of 2024, the average household’s credit-card debt surpassed
$10,000, adjusted for inflation, for the first time since 2009, according to
data compiled by consumer-finance website WalletHub.
Then there is the rising risk of an
economic downturn, or even an outright recession. Investors are clearly
concerned about the fallout from President Trump’s tariff policies. The
market’s alarm level only rose on Monday after administration officials and
Trump himself signaled a willingness to accept near-term pain—in the markets and the
economy—to achieve long-term aims that are less than clear. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent said the economy could need “a detox period”
to reduce dependency on government spending.
Lenders often say that the biggest input
on their credit modeling is employment. Whatever is happening with economic
growth, or stock prices, so long as people are working they are likely to keep
up with their payments. So lenders could be sensitive to job losses, even if
they are concentrated among federal workers or people who work in sectors that
rely on imported goods.
More
Consumers
Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out. - WSJ
Dick’s
Sporting Goods is latest retailer to forecast rocky 2025 as recession fears
swirl
Published
Tue, Mar 11 2025 7:08 AM EDT
Dick’s Sporting
Goods on
Tuesday said it’s expecting 2025 profits to be far lower than Wall Street
anticipated, making it the latest retailer to forecast a rocky year ahead as
consumers contend with tariffs, inflation and fears around a potential
recession.
In
an interview with CNBC, executive chairman Ed Stack said the company’s exposure
to China, Mexico and Canada for sourcing is very small, but it recognizes that
falling consumer confidence could impact spending.
“I
do think it’s just a bit of an uncertain world out there right now,” said
Stack. “What’s going to happen from a tariff standpoint? You know, if tariffs
are put in place and prices rise the way that they might, what’s going to
happen with the consumer?”
Despite
the weak guidance, the sporting goods retailer posted its best holiday quarter
on record. Its comparable sales rose 6.4%, far ahead of the 2.9% growth that
analysts expected, according to StreetAccount.
Here’s
how Dick’s did in its fiscal fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was
anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per
share: $3.62
vs. $3.53 expected
- Revenue: $3.89
billion vs. $3.78 billion expected
The
company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 1 was
$300 million, or $3.62 per share, compared with $296 million, or $3.57 per
share, a year earlier.
Sales
rose to $3.89 billion, up about 0.5% from $3.88 billion a year earlier. Like
other retailers, Dick’s benefited from an extra week in the year-ago period,
which has skewed comparisons. But unlike many of its peers, Dick’s still
managed to grow both sales and profits during the quarter, even with one less
selling week.
In
the year ahead, Dick’s is expecting earnings per share to be between $13.80 and
$14.40, well short of Wall Street estimates of $14.86, according to LSEG. It
anticipates net sales will be between $13.6 billion and $13.9 billion, which at
the high end is in line with estimates of $13.9 billion, according to LSEG.
Dick’s expecting comparable sales to grow between 1% and 3%, compared to
estimates of up 2.5%, according to StreetAccount.
The
gloomy earnings outlook comes after a wide array of other retailers gave weak
forecasts for the current quarter or the year ahead amid concerns about sliding
consumer confidence and the impact tariffs and inflation could have on
spending.
More
Dick's Sporting
Goods (DKS) earnings Q4 2024
“The
benefits of a tariff are visible. Union workers can see they are “protected”.
The harm which a tariff does is invisible. It’s spread widely. There are people
that don’t have jobs because of tariffs but they don’t know it.”
Milton
Friedman.
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Something different for a change today. Today that Beechcraft Bonanza crash in Lancaster PA. Many years ago I took flying lessons in Bonanzas, though not this model, and Cessnas at Teterboro airport, New Jersey. The good old days. Approx. 5 minutes.
Lancaster
Beechcraft Bonanza Crash: How This Pilot Saved Lives | Captain Steeeve Reacts
Lancaster Beechcraft Bonanza Crash: How This Pilot Saved Lives | Captain Steeeve Reacts - YouTube
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Hmm, Big Brother in Brussels is about
to go after you via a digital euro.
ECB
Targets October to Finish Digital Euro Preparation Phase
Mon,
March 10, 2025 at 11:51 AM GMT
European Central Bank President Christine Largarde has
said the ECB is looking to finish the preparation phase of the digital euro by
October 2025. Though, lawmakers recently raised doubts on whether a digital
euro can take flight according to a Reuters report on Monday.
Lawmakers are hesitant to trust the ECB with the
running of a digital euro following an outage that occurred with the Target 2
(T2) payment system last month where it could not settle transactions for a
day. T2 handles big transactions. Though an ECB official said, according to the
Reuters report, the digital euro would be similar to its instant payments
system TIPS which is 24/7 and handles smaller transactions.
"The recent outage doesn’t undermine the
robustness of the digital euro infrastructure, which is being designed to
guarantee that payments continue to function smoothly for users, even when
technical issues arise," an ECB spokesperson said after this article was
published.
The ECB is keen to ensure the digital euro goes live.
"Fabio Panetta on the Board and then Piero
Cipollone, who has replaced Fabio, have taken the lead together with a very
good team, which is focused on accelerating the pace and hopefully campaigning
enough with all the stakeholders – meaning the European Parliament, European
Council, European Commission – so that we can eventually, not put to bed, but
put to reality this digital euro," Lagarde said at a press conference on Friday.
The ECB is aiming to finish the preparation phase of
the digital euro by October, the ECB spokesperson clarified. The preparation phase began in November 2023. During this phase the ECB will be testing and discussing with various
stakeholders, as well as developing a rulebook for the digital euro.
A decision by the EU's Governing Council on whether or
not to issue a digital euro is expected to occur after legislation takes effect. The Governing Council includes Lagarde, Panetta alongside other members of
the ECB board plus the governors of national central banks.
The digital euro - which would be the EU's central bank
digital currency (CBDC) - a digital token that a central bank issues - has been
met with different viewpoints throughout the years. Some countries like Spain
in the past have not seen a digital euro as something that their nation needs.
Lagarde emphasised that the need is pressing.
"I think it is critically important, and for the
agnostics or the sceptics, it now seems more relevant and more imperative than
ever before, both on the wholesale and on the retail level," Lagarde said.
Should the EU decide to issue a digital euro it will be
following in the steps of countries like the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria who have
launched their CBDC's and veering away from the U.S.'s stance to not produce one.
ECB Targets
October to Finish Digital Euro Preparation Phase
Central Bank Digital Currency .
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
In a
world dependent on international trade and commerce, and staggering under a
heavy load of international debt, no policy is more destructive than
protectionism. It cuts off markets, eliminates trade, causes unemployment in
the export industries all over the world, depresses the prices of export
commodities, especially farm products of the United States. It is the crowning
folly of government intervention.
Hans F.
Sennholz.
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