Monday 30 November 2015

Peak China.

Baltic Dry Index. 581 +19        Brent Crude 44.76

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Nevertheless, there is another threat on the horizon. I see this threat in environmentalism which is becoming a new dominant ideology, if not a religion. Its main weapon is raising the alarm and predicting the human life endangering climate change based on man-made global warming.

Vaclav Klaus

At least “temporarily,” although temporary may be about to get redefined, we may have hit Peak China in 2015. If so, and right now China’s “Wobble” has turned into something far more serious, 2016 will become the year that the Great Disconnect between the Wall Street stock bubble and Main Street reality reconnects.  As West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil flirts with entering the 30s, and industrial commodities slump to six year lows, 2016 promises to be a year of bankruptcy and debt restructuring across a vast armada of sinking commodity behemoths and US oil frackers. When Iranian oil gets released from its storage in tankers, WTI looks set to fulfil Goldman’s recent prophecy of WTI in the 20s. A bleak winter lies ahead.

Emerging Stocks Drop to Two-Week Low as China Selloff Roils Asia

November 30, 2015 — 4:01 AM GMT Updated on November 30, 2015 — 5:24 AM GMT
Emerging-market stocks dropped to a two-week low and a gauge of developing-nation currencies fell toward a record amid a selloff in Chinese equities.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell, with all 10 industry gauges retreating, after a regulatory probe into some of China’s largest brokerages sparked the steepest slump in Shanghai shares in three months on Friday. Indonesia’s rupiah and South Korea’s won led declines in emerging currencies as they dropped for a fourth day. The offshore yuan erased early losses and swung sharply into positive territory on suspected central bank intervention before the International Monetary Fund votes Monday on whether to add China’s currency to its reserves basket.

Samsung Electronics Co. provided the biggest drag to the equities benchmark, which headed for its worst month since August. The Kospi index fell the most since September after a report showed South Korea’s October industrial production missed estimates. Chinese stocks extended their slide, with Haitong Securities Co. leading declines for brokerages after the company joined Citic Securities Co. and Guosen Securities Co. as targets of investigations into alleged margin-financing violations.

“Concerns over slowing growth in China and some parts of the global economy still persist and may last through the first half of 2016,” said Agus Yanuar, president director at PT Samual Aset Manajemen in Jakarta. “Investors should maintain defensive positions until we can see some improvements in leading indicators.”

Iron Ore Breaches $40 in Singapore as Rising Supply to Feed Glut

November 30, 2015 — 2:39 AM GMT Updated on November 30, 2015 — 4:55 AM GMT
Most-active iron ore futures in Singapore sank below $40 a metric ton for the first time on concern that the economic slowdown in China will cut demand as supplies from the largest miners climb.

The SGX AsiaClear contract for January fell 2.4 percent to $39.79 a ton as of 12:45 p.m. in Singapore, heading for the lowest close since trading started in April 2013. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, futures for May delivery sank as much as 3.1 percent to 293 yuan ($45.81) a ton, a record low. 

The raw material has been pummeled since the start of 2014 as surging supplies from low-cost producers including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group in Australia and Brazil’s Vale SA combine with faltering demand in China to spur a glut. Losses in Singapore and Dalian could presage a drop in the benchmark price for spot ore in Qingdao, which will be updated later in the day. The latest sign of new supply came from Australia, with a vessel waiting offshore on Monday to load the first cargo from Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill mine.

----The top miners are betting that higher output will enable them to cut unit costs and defend market share while smaller rivals shut. Mills in China, contending with overcapacity and depressed margins, will cut steel production by almost 3 percent next year, according to the China Iron & Steel Association.

----Rinehart’s $10 billion operation, which targets annual production of 55 million tons, missed an initial deadline to begin shipments earlier this year. The Capesize carrier Anangel Explorer, anchored offshore, will be loaded with the first cargo from the mine, Roy Hill Holdings Pty. confirmed in an e-mail.

While Citigroup Inc. has forecast that the mine’s new supply will contribute to a further slump, the producer has said almost 90 percent of its output is under long-term contract and that it won’t pressure prices.

The World's Largest Elevator Market Is Falling and May Never Recover

November 29, 2015 — 10:00 PM GMT
The world’s biggest elevator maker said China’s best days may be behind it.

After peaking at 600,000 units last year, sales in China may drop to about 500,000 next year amid a surplus of apartments and slowdown of people moving to big cities, Otis Elevator Co. President Philippe Delpech, who heads the world’s largest maker of elevators, said in an interview in Tokyo this month. After that, the market in China, where more than two-thirds of elevators are sold, may stabilize, he said.

So when will demand bounce back?

“It could be never,” Delpech said. “We will have to adjust the output of the factories to the market. You will have a consolidation in the market and some small companies will disappear.”

As the country heads for its slowest economic growth in a quarter century, the maker of the elevators that lift tourists atop the Eiffel Tower or Empire State Building is among the growing number of companies searching for solutions to cope with a slumping China. For its part, Otis said it’s investing in Japan, where it developed the double-decker elevator used in the tallest building on the planet to come up with more sophisticated models.

“The largest threat facing elevator makers is a slowdown in Chinese demand,” said Johnson Imode and Mustafa Okur, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. Real estate investment remains on a downward trend in China and is increasingly dependent on government stimulus, according to a BI report this month.

Though Otis isn’t listed, it accounts for about 20 percent of sales at its parent, United Technologies Corp., which is. Shares of United Technologies have fallen 15 percent on the New York Stock Exchange, last closing at $97.27.

Oil Set for Monthly Decline as OPEC Seen Standing Firm on Supply

November 30, 2015 — 12:11 AM GMT Updated on November 30, 2015 — 6:21 AM GMT
Oil headed for its largest monthly drop since July as Iran signaled the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t reduce its production target at a meeting this week.

Futures were little changed in New York and down 10 percent in November. Iran expects no major decisions that would change OPEC’s output target when the group gathers Dec. 4 in Vienna, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Saturday at a conference in Tehran. Prices retreated at the end of last week as Libya sought to boost supply and Russia ruled out military retaliation against Turkey for downing its jet near the Syrian border.

Oil is set to average below $50 for a fourth month, the longest stretch since the global financial crisis, as a record supply glut showed no signs of ending amid a producers’ fight for market share. Iran has said it will announce plans during the Vienna meeting to expand output, a year after Saudi Arabia led an OPEC decision to keep pumping and drive out higher-cost shale rivals.

With the “Climate Change” Druids meeting this week and next in Paris, to draw up the anti-carbon rules of the new and expensive New Age  religion, expect a media New Age propaganda blitz over the coming days led by propagandist-in-chief, the ever left wing loony BBC. A ton of bricks will fall on any heretics presenting dissenting opinions.

There is no way that we can predict the weather six months ahead beyond giving the seasonal average”

Stephen Hawking, Black Holes and Baby Universes

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 43.65 Moz, Eligible 115.34 Moz, Total 158.99 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, updates held over from last week. Vale and BHP Billiton have the book thrown at them in Brazil. Volkswagen promises a quick fix for their European killer dirty diesels. Silly me wonders why if the fix is so simple VW didn’t find it before and not deliberately pollute Europe’s cities. But cynical me, maybe the fix isn’t so simple.

Brazil Says BHP-Vale Mine Cleanup Bill May Reach $5.2 Billion

November 27, 2015 — 7:32 PM GMT Updated on November 27, 2015 — 9:28 PM GMT
Brazil will seek as much as 20 billion reais ($5.2 billion) compensation for a dam collapse at an iron-ore venture owned by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA, said Attorney General Luis Inacio Adams.

The Samarco Mineracao SA venture and its owners will have to take responsibility for repairs to property and the environment as well as indemnification, Adams told reporters in Brasilia after meeting with President Dilma Rousseff.

The government is seeking full environmental recovery of the region affected by the Nov. 5 accident, he said, with a request for a judge to seize funds in case companies don’t pay. Rather than being paid upfront, the money will be disbursed according to the companies’ government-approved plans.

Authorities have called the accident the biggest mining disaster in Brazil’s history, with more than 20 people either confirmed dead or still missing after the collapse sent 50 million metric tons of iron-ore waste cascading into a village and into waterways.

The joint venture and its partners are voluntarily setting up funds to help clean up the Rio Doce and its tributaries. Samarco will set aside $260 million to fund emergency measures including prevention, remediation and compensation for the environmental and social effects of the incident, BHP said in a Nov. 17 statement.

While operating permits have been suspended, both owners say they are committed to restoring the venture. Deutsche Bank AG said it may be years before the site reopens.

Volkswagen proposes simple technical fixes for diesel cheat in Europe

Aaron Turpen November 27, 2015
The Volkswagen Group has been in a lot of hot water since the "dieselgate" scandal began. When it came to light that VW had been using a "defeat device" on its diesel vehicles to circumvent official emission testing procedures, the company quickly admitted to its wrongdoing and has been working to comply with regulators and find a fix. In Europe, that fix may be very simple. This week, the German authorities accepted the small technical change and software upgrade proposed by VW.

The software defeat device that the Volkswagen Group (which includes VW, Porsche, Audi, and others) used to cheat regulations was implemented on several of the company's diesel vehicles globally. In Europe, two of the engines under investigation are a 1.6-liter and 2.0-liter diesel labeled EA 189. These utilized engine software that detected when the vehicle was being compliance tested and changed the output metrics in order to win approval. Thus the recorded nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions were compliant despite being much higher than allowed during normal use.

Volkswagen has proposed a simple engine change and a software fix that would force the two EA 189 engines to be compliant with European emissions regulations. The proposal has secured the approval of the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrtbundesamt or KBA). With the KBA's ratification, VW is now working on technical updates that will start being rolled out to the first recalled vehicles in January 2016. Volkswagen's other brands, including Audi, SEAT, SKODA, and their commercial vehicle arm, will be creating corresponding measures for their affected vehicles.

The fix for the 1.6-liter diesel engine is the replacement of a section of clean air intake to add a straight, non-baffled piece of pipe called a "flow transformer" directly ahead of the air mass sensor (also called an air flow meter). This sensor determines the amount of air mass throughput, which in turn affects engine management parameters for optimum combustion. The new pipe, which extends from the air filter to the air mass sensor, will allow a straight flow of air for a much more accurate measurement of air mass passing through to the intake.

Volkswagen says that the current flow pipe in that location baffles the air, making measurements inaccurate. Once the new flow straightener is installed, a software update will be performed to accommodate the new addition. VW estimates that the time for these fixes will be less than an hour. The larger 2.0-liter engines will only require changes to the software and, as such, the update should take around half an hour to complete.


Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Solar power sharing scheme launched in Germany

26 November 2015
A German battery maker has launched a solar energy sharing scheme that makes households equipped with photovoltaic panels and battery storage systems less dependent on major utilities by enabling them to trading their electricity.
The sonnenCommunity, as the battery maker Sonnerbatterie has dubbed the scheme, aims to improve distribution of renewable energy and cut electricity costs for participants.
For €3,599, each sonnenCommunity member can purchase an intelligent battery system for storing surplus energy generated by their household's solar panels. The energy is than offered online for other members to purchase.
“With the sonnenCommunity, we offer all households that want to determine their own energy future access to affordable, clean electricity for the first time,” said Christoph Ostermann, CEO of Sonnenbatterie.
The platform, controlled via self-learning software, takes into account weather forecast and real-time consumption data to balance supply and demand.
Sonnenbatterie said that even households without photovoltaic installations can take part in the scheme by purchasing cheaper electricity than is available from the major suppliers.
The initiative comes at a time when large-scale battery technology, long seen as expensive, is approaching a point where ordinary households can afford it.
Sonnenbatterie has sold 8,500 lithium battery units. In Germany around 25,000 solar power storing batteries are in operation, while around 1.5 million households have solar panels installed.
US electric vehicle maker Tesla is also looking to enter the market. It plans to start delivering wall-mounted batteries that can store solar-generated power to German customers in early 2016.

Musk's Tesla faces German battle over battery-powered homes

Fri Nov 27, 2015 | 1:01 PM EST
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - If Elon Musk's vision of millions of households producing all their own power becomes a reality, it will probably happen first in Germany. But he will face a battle for market share against local firms with years of experience in renewable energy.
The technology does not yet allow most users to disconnect from the grid - the German solar industry association BSW estimates batteries currently raise solar power self-sufficiency to at least 60 percent.
Then there is the price. Buying and installing solar panels and batteries costs around 10,000 euros ($10,600) or more.
But the technology is improving, and costs falling, and some analysts think Germany - with more solar panels than anywhere in the world and sky-high power prices - could become the industry's first mass-market.
"The business model of power batteries is becoming increasingly attractive," said Norbert Schwieters, global utilities leader at consultants PwC, noting market estimates that sales in Germany could reach half a million within a decade, up from around 25,000 now.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October

DJIA: +31 Down. NASDAQ: +125 Down. SP500: +53 Down. 

Saturday 28 November 2015

Weekend Update 28/11/2015 – World Government & Brexit.

“Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order [referring to the 1991 L.A. Riots]. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond [i.e., an “extraterrestrial” invasion], whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

Henry Kissinger, 1992 Bilderberg Meeting at Evians, France.

Today, as the EUSSR Bilderberger project increasingly crashes from Merkel’s folly in inviting all the world’s economic migrants to move to Germany, the secret 1950s US/UK plan for one world government exposed. The United States of Europe was just supposed to be step one to world government.  Brexit gets better with each passing week.

How a secretive elite created the EU to build a world government

Voters in Britain's referendum need to understand that the European Union was about building a federal superstate from day one

By Prof Alan Sked 8:30AM GMT 27 Nov 2015
As the debate over the forthcoming EU referendum gears up, it would be wise perhaps to remember how Britain was led into membership in the first place. It seems to me that most people have little idea why one of the victors of the Second World War should have become almost desperate to join this "club". That's a shame, because answering that question is key to understanding why the EU has gone so wrong.

-----What about geopolitics? What argument in the cold light of hindsight could have been so compelling as to make us kick our Second-World-War Commonwealth allies in the teeth to join a combination of Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Germany and Italy?

Four of these countries held no international weight whatsoever. Germany was occupied and divided. France, meanwhile, had lost one colonial war in Vietnam and another in Algeria. De Gaulle had come to power to save the country from civil war. Most realists must surely have regarded these states as a bunch of losers. De Gaulle, himself a supreme realist, pointed out that Britain had democratic political institutions, world trade links, cheap food from the Commonwealth, and was a global power. Why would it want to enter the EEC?

The answer is that Harold Macmillan and his closest advisers were part of an intellectual tradition that saw the salvation of the world in some form of world government based on regional federations. He was also a close acquaintance of Jean Monnet, who believed the same. It was therefore Macmillan who became the representative of the European federalist movement in the British cabinet.

In a speech in the House of Commons he even advocated a European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) before the real thing had been announced. He later arranged for a Treaty of Association to be signed between the UK and the ECSC, and it was he who ensured that a British representative was sent to the Brussels negotiations following the Messina Conference, which gave birth to the EEC.

In the late 1950s he pushed negotiations concerning a European Free Trade Association towards membership of the EEC. Then, when General de Gaulle began to turn the EEC into a less federalist body, he took the risk of submitting a full British membership application in the hope of frustrating Gaullist ambitions.

His aim, in alliance with US and European proponents of a federalist world order, was to frustrate the emerging Franco-German alliance which was seen as one of French and German nationalism.
Monnet met secretly with Heath and Macmillan on innumerable occasions to facilitate British entry. Indeed, he was informed before the British Parliament of the terms in which the British approach to Europe would be framed.

Despite advice from the Lord Chancellor, Lord Kilmuir, that membership would mean the end of British parliamentary sovereignty, Macmillan deliberately misled the House of Commons — and practically everyone else, from Commonwealth statesmen to cabinet colleagues and the public — that merely minor commercial negotiations were involved. He even tried to deceive de Gaulle that he was an anti-federalist and a close friend who would arrange for France, like Britain, to receive Polaris missiles from the Americans. De Gaulle saw completely through him and vetoed the British bid to enter.

Macmillan left Edward Heath to take matters forward, and Heath, along with Douglas Hurd, arranged — according to the Monnet papers — for the Tory Party to become a (secret) corporate member of Monnet’s Action Committee for a United States of Europe.

According to Monnet’s chief aide and biographer, Francois Duchene, both the Labour and Liberal Parties later did the same. Meanwhile the Earl of Gosford, one of Macmillan’s foreign policy ministers in the House of Lords, actually informed the House that the aim of the government’s foreign policy was world government.

Monnet’s Action Committee was also given financial backing by the CIA and the US State Department. The Anglo-American establishment was now committed to the creation of a federal United States of Europe.

Today, this is still the case. Powerful international lobbies are already at work attempting to prove that any return to democratic self-government on the part of Britain will spell doom. American officials have already been primed to state that such a Britain would be excluded from any free trade deal with the USA and that the world needs the TTIP trade treaty which is predicated on the survival of the EU.

Fortunately, Republican candidates in the USA are becoming Eurosceptics and magazines there like The National Interest are publishing the case for Brexit. The international coalition behind Macmillan and Heath will find things a lot more difficult this time round — especially given the obvious difficulties of the Eurozone, the failure of EU migration policy and the lack of any coherent EU security policy.

Most importantly, having been fooled once, the British public will be much more difficult to fool again.

Alan Sked is the original founder of Ukip and professor of International History at the London School of Economics. He is presently collecting material for a book he hopes to publish on Britain's experience of the EU

“We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years … It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national autodetermination practiced in past centuries.”

David Rockefeller, 1991 Bilderberg Meeting at Baden, Germany (a meeting also attended by Bill Clinton)