Saturday 30 July 2022

Special Update 30/7/22 Bad Things Lie Ahead.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1895 -50  Brent Crude 110.01

Spot Gold 1766        US 2 Year Yield 2.89 +0.04 

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 16/07/22 World 581,134,126

Deaths 6,417,955

There are signs some relief may come to world wheat markets soon. The US is poised to deliver a bumper spring wheat crop in the upcoming weeks, which if realized could help relieve the global shortfalls caused by turmoil in the Black Sea. Fields in North Dakota, the top producing US state, are forecast to yield a record high 49.1 bushels per acre, according to the final estimate of a three-day crop tour led by the Wheat Quality Council. While all signs now point to an ample harvest, it’s coming later than normal, so late-season problems could still hurt production.

Bloomberg, Friday.

In the stock casinos, more rear view mirror bubble and froth. Plus dress up Friday for the end of month bonuses.

But the stock market is supposed to be a forward looking casino, valuing stocks on the basis of what’s coming not what’s already past.

On that basis stocks are headed for a fall if not a crash.

Inflation is still rampant everywhere, interest rates are rising everywhere except in Russia where they’re falling.

The oil price is rising again ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting. So much for President Biden’s embarrassing trip to Saudi Arabia.

More and more of the decveloping world is starting to resemble bankrupt Sri Lanka.

Europe is headed into a deep Russian sanctions induced recession.

Higher interest rates have now impacted US real estate demand.

In China, a massive housing demand bubble has burst leading to a massive mortgage payment strike.

In Ukraine, America’s proxy war on Russia goes on, fighting to the last Ukrainian, but all too likely to widen from a proxy war into the real thing.

Next week, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives must put up or wimp out on her visit to China claimed Taiwan. Either way, nothing good comes from the outcome.

With August comes the real start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

On the better news front, this weekend should see the first of the trapped grain ships in Ukraine finally depart, though without others steaming in to load Ukraine’s grain, any food price relief will likely be “transitory.”

All in all, the second half of 2022 looks anything but like pre-Covid 2019.

Stocks rally for a third day to cap a winning week, major averages post best month since 2020

Intel stock closed down 8% on Friday, a day after the company reported disappointing second-quarter earnings that missed on the top and bottom lines. 

Intel’s revenue declined 22% year over year and missed consensus by 14%, the company’s largest top-line disappointment since 1999, according to Refinitiv data. It ended the quarter with a $454 million net loss, compared with net income of $5 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The company also lowered its full-year expectations. Intel said it now sees full-year adjusted earnings of $2.30 per share and revenue of $65 billion to $68 billion, which is lower than guidance from three months ago.

The updated forecast factors in economic weakness that might result in organizations putting off PC refresh cycles, David Zinsner, Intel’s finance chief, told CNBC in an interview. He said small and medium-sized businesses have slowed down their computer purchasing, but the enterprise has been holding up.

“We do think we’re on the bottom,” Zinsner said.

Analysts from Susquehanna downgraded shares of Intel from neutral to negative and said that while they would like to think this was a one-time reset, problems persist. 

“For decades, Intel was able to cover up a litany of failed projects, poor acquisitions, and strategic foibles by pushing Moore’s Law and process leadership,” the analysts wrote in a report on Friday. “Unless they regain this leadership (we think unlikely), or change strategic direction, we expect growth, profitability, and cash flow problems to persist at Intel.” 

Baird analysts also downgraded Intel, citing concerns over supply chain delays and shifts in consumer patterns following the pandemic.


Intel stock slumps 8% after poor earnings show softening demand (

Finally, 5 months of war in Ukraine on and what has the war accomplished so far?

Isolation complication? US finds it’s hard to shun Russia

July 29, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration likes to say Russia has become isolated internationally because of its invasion of Ukraine. Yet Moscow’s top officials have hardly been cloistered in the Kremlin. And now, even the U.S. wants to talk.

President Vladimir Putin has been meeting with world leaders, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is a NATO member. Meanwhile, his top diplomat, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, is jetting around the world, smiling, shaking hands and posing for photos with foreign leaders — including some friends of the U.S.

And on Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he wants to end months of top-level U.S. diplomatic estrangement with Lavrov to discuss the release of American detainees as well as issues related to Ukraine. The call has not been scheduled but is expected in coming days.Updates with hyperlinks.

The handshakes and phone calls cast doubt on a core part of the U.S. strategy aimed at ending the Ukraine war: that diplomatic and economic isolation, along with battlefield setbacks, would ultimately force Russia to send its troops home.

Even as he announced plans for the call, Blinken continued to insist Russia is indeed isolated. He argued the travel of its top officials is purely damage control and a reaction to international criticism Moscow is facing for the Ukraine war.

U.S. officials say Russia is trying to shore up the few alliances it has left — some of which are American adversaries like Iran. But countries that are ostensibly U.S. partners, like Egypt and Uganda, are also warmly welcoming top Russians.

And after making the case since February that there’s no point in talking to Russia because Russia is not serious about diplomacy and cannot be trusted, the U.S. has conceded it needs to engage with Moscow as well.

The public outreach to Lavrov combined with the announcement of a “substantial proposal” to Russia to win the release of detained Americans Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner took many by surprise.

Blinken-Lavrov conversation would be the highest-level contact between the U.S. and Russia since Feb. 15, before the Russian invasion, and could set the stage for possible in-person discussions, although administration officials say there are no plans for that.


Isolation complication? US finds it's hard to shun Russia | AP News

Click to copy

Ukraine’s grain is ready to go. But ships aren’t. Why? Risk

July 27, 2022

Shipping companies are not rushing to export millions of tons of grain trapped in Ukraine, despite a breakthrough deal to provide safe corridors through the Black Sea. That is because explosive mines are drifting in the waters, ship owners are assessing the risks and many still have questions over how the deal will unfold.

The complexities of the agreement have set off a slow, cautious start, but it’s only good for 120 days — and the clock began ticking last week.

The goal over the next four months is to get some 20 million tons of grain out of three Ukrainian sea ports blocked since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. That provides time for about four to five large bulk carriers per day to transport grain from the ports to millions of impoverished people worldwide facing hunger.

It also provides ample time for things to go awry. Only hours after the signing Friday, Russian missiles struck Ukraine’s port of Odesa — one of those included in the agreement.

Another key element of the deal offers assurances that shipping and insurers carrying Russian grain and fertilizer will not get caught in the wider net of Western sanctions. But the agreement brokered by Turkey and the U.N. is running up against the reality of how difficult and risky the pact will be to carry out.

“We have to work very hard to now understand the detail of how this is going to work practically,” said Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, representing national shipowners associations that account for about 80% of the world’s merchant fleet.

“Can we make sure and guarantee the safety of the crews? What’s going to happen with the mines and the minefields, as well? So lots of uncertainty and unknowns at the moment,” he said.

Getting wheat and other food out is critical to farmers in Ukraine, who are running out of storage capacity amid a new harvest. Those grains are vital to millions of people in Africa, parts of the Middle East and South Asia, who are already facing food shortages and, in some cases, famine.


Ukraine's grain is ready to go. But ships aren't. Why? Risk | AP News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.     

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

High energy prices push inflation to nearly 9% in 19 euro-using countries

JULY 29, 2022 / 8:36 AM

July 29 (UPI) -- A sharp rise in energy prices aided by Russia's war in Ukraine has helped fuel rising inflation in countries that use the euro, official statistics said on Friday.

According to the figures by Eurostat, prices in the eurozone nations reached a record-high 8.9% over the past 12 months.

The July inflationary increase was up from 8.6% in June. Energy costs rose 42% and continue to be heavily affected by the fighting in Ukraine, which has severely disrupted global energy markets.

Energy prices were expected to continue to rise at a high clip of 39.7% in July.

"Energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in July, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco, non-energy industrial goods and services," Eurostat said in a statement.

While the inflation spike is connected with Ukraine, prices in the 19-nation eurozone have been on the rise since last August when inflation stood at 3.2% and steadily increased over the past 12 months.

Inflation later rose to 5.6% in January, a month before the war in Ukraine, and then 6.2% in February.

Despite the high inflation, economic health in the eurozone was up in the most recent quarter, Eurostat said. Gross domestic product in the zone increased 0.7% for the second quarter and 0.6% in the European Union. The rise follows a 0.5% increase in the first quarter.

High energy prices push inflation to nearly 9% in 19 euro-using countries -

German economy stagnates in second quarter as France resumes growth

With the gas crisis unfolding, growth is expected to slow significantly ahead.


FRANKFURT — German economic growth ground to a halt in the second quarter of this year, disappointing expectations of a slight expansion, according to data released by Germany’s statistics office Friday.

After posting 0.8 percent growth in the first quarter of the year, Europe’s largest economy stagnated.

“Difficult global economic conditions with the ongoing corona pandemic, disrupted supply chains, rising prices and the war in Ukraine are clearly reflected in economic developments,” the statistics office said.

The German release follows French GDP data, which showed the eurozone’s second largest economy expanding 0.5 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.2 percent from January to March.

Meanwhile, the Spanish economy expanded by 1.1 percent on the quarter, its statistics office reported this morning.  

The first second-quarter growth estimate for the wider eurozone is due to be released at 11:00 CET. A Reuters survey of analysts conducted before national data became available showed that they expect growth to slow to a near halt of 0.1 percent, from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.

As the gas crisis is unfolding, growth is set to slow significantly further ahead. The latest PMI survey suggested that eurozone business activity contracted in July.  

German economy stagnates in second quarter as France resumes growth – POLITICO

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

The dodgy BBC “News” undone again.

Has the lab leak theory really been disproved?

There doesn't seem to be a smoking gun in the latest 'evidence'

27 July 2022, 4:19pm

The BBC carried a story this week with the headline ‘Covid origin studies say evidence points to Wuhan market’. Bizarrely the paper in Science they are referring to, by Michael Worobey and colleagues, says no such thing. It says: ‘the observation that the preponderance of early cases were linked to the Huanan market does not establish that the pandemic originated there’.

All three of the scientists quoted in the BBC story have been highly dismissive about even discussing the possibility that the pandemic began as an accident in a Wuhan laboratory. Their vested interest is clear: they worry that the reputation of their field of virology would be threatened by such a discussion. But the many scientists who say such a debate is needed are largely ignored by the BBC: none are quoted in this week’s article.

The Beeb’s story says that ‘this evidence paints a picture that Sars-CoV-2 was present in live mammals that were sold at Huanan market in late 2019’. This too is wrong. Nobody has found any evidence of Sars-CoV-2 in live mammals at the market. They have found some evidence – they cite only a YouTube video – that mammals were on sale in the market, which we already knew, but not that the mammals were infected. That would be the very minimum requirement for asserting that the pandemic began in the market. In 2003 scientists refused to assert that Sars began in markets till they found infected animals.

The new paper shows that lots of early cases had visited the Huanan seafood market or lived near it, which we already knew. But for the first two weeks of January 2020, the Chinese authorities were defining pneumonia cases as (what we now call) Covid only if they had visited or lived near the market: so it is a circular argument. The scientists dismiss this ‘ascertainment bias’ problem by citing one of their own papers, which simply asserted that this problem could be ignored. As Dr Alina Chan of MIT and Harvard puts it: ‘Worobey et al. are claiming that there is no ascertainment bias because their lead author said so.’

The new Science paper has an ignominious history. It began life as a ‘preprint’ whose data and logic were torn apart within days by independent researchers. Even the Chinese Academy of Sciences panned it for ‘obfuscating the epidemic outbreak place…and the origin’ and for ‘overstating conclusions based on limited data and unrealistic simulations’. Senior Chinese scientists published a preprint the same week reiterating their conclusion that the market was a place where the early outbreak was amplified, not where it began. It’s quite something when western scientists go further than those supervised by the Chinese Communist party in trying to exonerate a possible lab leak. Yet its conclusions were reported by the Times as having ‘found patient zero’ and the New York Times as saying 'the virus was present in animals’ at the market – both entirely false claims.

More, much, much more.

Has the lab leak theory really been disproved? | The Spectator

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

The super material reinforcing rinks, cars and buildings

By Chris Baraniuk  Technology of Business reporter

It looked like normal concrete. It poured like normal concrete. But it had a super power.

James Baker, chief executive of Graphene@Manchester, couldn't quite believe what he was seeing as he observed the installation of a new roller disco floor in Manchester's Depot Mayfield development.

The concrete slab was setting so fast, and so strong, that the builders had begun gliding polishing machines over the driest part of the floor while their colleagues were still pouring the other end of the rink.

"Normally, you'd have to wait a week before you could do that," he says. The installation, in October last year, took less than a day.

This concrete was special because it contained a tiny but transformative amount of graphene, microscopic flakes of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb lattice.

Graphene is the strongest material ever discovered but for nearly two decades has struggled to find a revolutionary role in commercial products. Is that about to change?


Besides improving the mechanical properties of certain materials, it is hoped graphene could also make some projects more environmentally-friendly.


"By adding as little as 0.1% graphene into cement and aggregate, you can potentially use less material to get the same performance," explains Mr Baker. Reducing the amount of concrete used in construction for instance by 30%, could lower global CO2 emissions by 2-3%, he estimates.


Besides the roller disco, Mr Baker and his colleagues have also trialled the graphene-infused concrete, known as concretene, in a gym floor in Wiltshire and some road projects, including a section of the A1 several hundred metres long in Northumberland.

The team will also pour concretene in an as-yet undisclosed project in the United Arab Emirates this year.


These early trials have comprised fairly straightforward projects, Mr Baker explains - floor slabs, rather than walls or elevated platforms, which might be more risky. So far, the concretene has performed as expected, though.


The super material reinforcing rinks, cars and buildings - BBC News 

This weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi again with an exceptional violin US genius. From New Jersey, no less! Approx. 7 minutes.

Vivaldi: Concerto in D Major RV 212 "St. Antonio," Alana Youssefian & Voices of Music, with cadenza!

Vivaldi: Concerto in D Major RV 212 "St. Antonio," Alana Youssefian & Voices of Music, with cadenza! - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 15 minutes.

Master of the Mystic Arts! || Réti vs Alekhine || Baden-Baden (1925)

Master of the Mystic Arts! || Réti vs Alekhine || Baden-Baden (1925) - YouTube

This week’s maths update.  Approx. 12  minutes.

Multiplying monkeys and parabolic primes

Multiplying monkeys and parabolic primes - YouTube

July 30, 1914 - Austrian warships bombard Belgrade, capital of Serbia.

July 31, 1914 - Reacting to the Austrian attack on Serbia, Russia begins full mobilization of its troops. Germany demands that it stop.

August 1, 1914 - Germany declares war on Russia. France and Belgium begin full mobilization.

August 3, 1914 - Germany declares war on France, and invades neutral Belgium. Britain then sends an ultimatum, rejected by the Germans, to withdraw from Belgium.


Friday 29 July 2022

August 2020 v August 1914.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1945 -62  Brent Crude 107.04

Spot Gold 1761         US 2 Year Yield 2.85 -0.11

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 29/07/22 World 579,780,429

Deaths 6,414,615

Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.

Don’t look now, but the USA has fallen into the recession that isn’t. 

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting GDP fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the April-to-June quarter, according to the advance estimate. GDP slipped 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

Of course, GDP falling for two consecutive quarters doesn’t automatically make it a recession in the USA, a bunch of elderly economic academics in America get to pontificate on recession starts and endings.

Quite often by the time they declare a US recession started, the USA is well on its way out of recession, but they are only economists after all. Their guess is about as good as anyone else’s.

Still, despite the US stock casinos soaring on the bad news, the US bond yields dropped in anticipation that the recession is real and pretty soon the US central bank will blink and stop raising interest rates into the new arriving recession.

So are recessions really good for stocks? I think we all know the answer to that, although right now in the summer of 2020 we seem to be doing a good modern version of 1914, but hopefully with a different August ending.


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng drops around 2% with tech stocks under pressure

SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell around 2% on Friday as tech stocks came under pressure.

The benchmark index slipped 2.16%, while the Hang Seng Tech index dropped around 4%.

Hang Seng heavyweights Alibaba and Meituan dropped more than 5% each. Alibaba is on track for a third straight session of losses following news that several Ant Group executives have stepped down as Alibaba partners.

Meituan shares plunged after reports that the company has been summoned by Hangzhou’s market regulator.

Real estate stocks in Hong Kong also fell Friday.

Chinese leaders on Thursday signaled Beijing is unlikely to try to boost the economy, and downplayed the country’s GDP target of “around 5.5%.”

“This hints that the government is not going to overly spend on infrastructure projects to achieve that target. Our view is that this is not such a bad thing,” ING said in a Friday note.

“This would give more room for the central government to solve the problem of uncompleted construction projects,” the authors added.

In mainland China, the  was 0.74% lower and the  dipped 1.04%.

Elsewhere, in Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.32% while the Topix index was about flat.

The country’s industrial output jumped 8.9% in June from the previous month, the ministry of economy, trade and industry said Friday. The print surprised to the upside after falling in May.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.85% and the Kosdaq advanced 0.9%.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was up 0.78%.

----Major U.S. indexes rallied at least 1% each overnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 332.04 points, or 1%, to 32,529.63. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 4,072.43, and the Nasdaq Composite added nearly 1.1% to 12,162.59.

U.S. futures rose further after tech companies like Apple and Amazon reported strong earnings.

Those moves came despite the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting GDP fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the April-to-June quarter, according to the advance estimate. GDP slipped 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

While that is the second-straight negative GDP report, official declarations on whether the U.S. is in a recession come from the National Bureau of Economic Research. That determination could take months or even longer.


Asia Markets: Hong Kong tech stocks drop, Asia markets (

China signals no big stimulus is coming, while Covid controls remain

U.S. trucking CEOs expect to maintain pricing power even with volumes softening in the second half of 2022 as retailers, manufacturers and consumers adjust to disruptions from Covid lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation.

A recent survey of customers by SAIA, a trucker for Starbucks, Home Depot and Lowe’s, found the majority of companies are still working to figure out their next step and what the “new normal” is for their business, according to CEO Fritz Holzgrefe.

“They were talking a lot about continuing to rebuild inventory positions, straightening out their supply chains through the balance of the year, even into the first part of next year,” Holzgrefe told CNBC. “Maybe things have slowed a bit, but customers are still continuing to re-sort their supply chain position to more effectively to achieve their goals in their respective businesses.”

The supply chain is improving and past the worst, according to Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprise, which moves freight for Amazon, Walmart and Target. But, he warned, headwinds for truckers will keep rates well above prepandemic levels for the rest of 2022.

“You’ll see rates hold up for the remainder of the year. Our cost increases are real. Our customers understand that,” Leathers said. “We’re talking large scale successful winning brands like [Amazon and Walmart] and many others that know the reliance on their carrier is a competitive advantage. They want good quality transportation, on time, every time safely. To do that they work with large well capitalized carriers.” 

----Spot trucking saw a boom at the height of the pandemic as companies adjusted to snarled supply chains and were willing to pay historic rates to transport goods during the e-commerce boom. However, the majority of trucking is still done through contracts with carriers and their customers like large retailers.

The leading companies in the three major segments of trucking make the majority of revenue from contracts — Knight Swift (full truckload), FedEx (less than truckload) and JB Hunt (container shipping) — have reported double-digit rate increases in their most recent earnings.

“We believe the contract rates will hold up. We believe contract rates are going to be at a place that is going to allow trucking companies to be remarkably profitable.” Deustche Bank transportation analyst Amit Mehrotra told CNBC.


Trucking CEOs expect high prices, demand in second half of 2022 (

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

The CDC ended its COVID-19 program for cruise ships. What does that mean for travelers?

Thu, July 28, 2022 at 8:04 PM

After the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended its COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships last week, cruise lines have announced changes to their health and safety protocols.

The CDC issued new COVID-19 guidance for cruise ships on July 20, with updated health and safety recommendations. The agency said cruise lines should consider mandating viral tests for travelers close to departure, and "highly" recommended testing within one day of embarkation.

However, some lines have dropped those rules. Here's what passengers can expect.

Royal Caribbean Group will drop its testing requirement for vaccinated passengers on some voyages, the company said Thursday. Beginning on August 8, testing will be only be required for vaccinated guests on sailings that are six or more nights, and will be required for unvaccinated guests on all trips according to a news release.

President and CEO Jason Liberty told USA TODAY that "sometime in the next 30 to 45 days" the company also expects to drop the testing rule for vaccinated passengers on longer voyages, where local requirements allow.

"We're highly focused on making sure that our guests and our crew are safe and healthy at all times," he said, and noted that the company will continue to operate "highly vaccinated" sailings.

Liberty added that Royal Caribbean Group will monitor the situation and "modify protocols as needed."


The CDC ended its COVID-19 program for cruise ships. What does that mean for travelers? (

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Something different again today, earthquake predicting.

Researchers discover way to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy

By studying changes in the Earth's ionosphere, an Israeli research team discovered a method to predict earthquakes 48 hours ahead with 80% accuracy.

 Published: JULY 25, 2022 04:59  Updated: JULY 26, 2022 10:33

Israeli researchers have discovered a method to predict earthquakes 48 hours ahead with 80% accuracy, as detailed in a peer-reviewed study published in the scientific journal Remote Sensing in May.

How did they work it out?

By studying changes in the Earth's ionosphere, the sliver of atmosphere which meets the vacuum of space, the Ariel University and Center for Research & Development Eastern Branch research team was able to evaluate potential precursors to several major earthquakes that occurred in the past 20 years.

The researchers defined major earthquakes as those surpassing Mw 6 on the Moment magnitude scale, which measures an earthquake's magnitude based on its seismic movement.

The method developed by the team saw them implement a machine learning support vector machine (SVM) technique, applied with GPS map data of ionospheric total electron content to calculate its electron charge density.

Through this technique, they managed to find that an earthquake can be accurately predicted with 80% accuracy.

Moreover, the researchers were also able to accurately predict when an earthquake will not occur in a specified area with 85.7% accuracy.


Researchers discover way to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy - The Jerusalem Post (

Another weekend and still the proxy war with Russia goes on with no one anywhere trying to end it. Have a great weekend everyone before this useless war widens.

Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.

Oscar Wilde.