Baltic Dry Index. 2150 +140 Brent Crude 101.75
Spot Gold 1716 US 2 Year Yield 3.13 -0.02
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 18/07/22 World 567,824,848
Deaths 6,378,753
People of the same trade seldom meet
together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a
conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But
though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling
together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to
render them necessary.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
In the Asian stock casinos, more hopium and exit rally. Europe’s markets excluding Italy’s are expected to follow.
But I suspect the week’s big story the week will be Europe’s devastating heatwave and what it’s doing to Europe’s economy and GDP.
Though
by the end of the week this might be replaced by an EUSSR panic story led by
Germany, if Russia doesn’t resume gas shipments via the Nord Stream One
pipeline.
For the lack of
providing Russia with viable security guarantees, the world has gone mad and
embarked mutual assured economic destruction.
Hong Kong stocks
rise more than 2% as Asia markets gain; New Zealand inflation at 32-year high
SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped more than
2%, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Monday.
The benchmark index was
up 2.47%, and the Hang Seng Tech index jumped 2.63%. Meituan shares
soared 6.64% and Longfor popped 6.43%.
Mainland China markets advanced.
The Shanghai Composite was
1.49% higher and the Shenzhen
Component rose 1.12%.
The Kospi climbed 1.78%
and the Kosdaq was up 1.35%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.86%.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.46%.
Japan’s market was closed for a
holiday Monday.
“A positive tone should be the
order of the day in Asian trading in a week with little local macro content to
focus on,” ING’s Robert Carnell and Iris Pang wrote in a note on Monday,
pointing to Wall Street’s rally on Friday and positive U.S. futures.
Vasu Menon, executive director of investment
strategy at OCBC, said he sees more downside risk for volatile markets at this
point given various uncertainties.
“But at the same time, you know,
sentiment can change very quickly especially if you see positive economic data,
positive earnings surprises, so it’s a very fluid situation,” he told CNBC’s
“Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
In economic data, New Zealand’s
consumer price index rose 7.3% in the June 2022 quarter compared to the same
period a year ago, official data showed Monday. That’s a
32-year high for the country, and the main driver was rising prices for
construction and rentals for housing, Stats NZ said.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand
last week raised interest rates by 50 basis points in a bid to fight inflation.
The New Zealand dollar on Monday gained 0.28% to $0.6177.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific
region, Macao’s
government said it would extend a suspension of operations for all industries,
commercial companies and venues in the special administrative region until
Friday.
Casino stocks listed in Hong Kong
were hit last week when the initial announcement was made.
Later this week, investors will
be looking out for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes, China’s
one-year and five-year loan prime rate decision and the Bank of Japan’s
interest rate decision.
On Friday in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared
more than 600 points as markets reacted to bank earnings and economic data.
The Dow jumped 658.09 points or
2.15% to close at 31,288.26, and the S&P 500 rose
1.92% to 3,863.16. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.79% to 11,452.42.
More
Asia
markets: Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 2% as regional shares gain (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for cautiously higher open, continuing positive global trend
LONDON — European stocks are set to open cautiously higher on Monday after
gains seen last Friday, although Italy’s main index is seen opening in negative
territory amid
political uncertainty.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen
opening 12 points higher at 7,129, Germany’s DAX 12 points
higher at 12,881, France’s CAC
40 up 11 points at 6,051 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 51 points
lower at 20,799, according to data from IG.
That comes amid more buoyant global
sentiment. In Asia-Pacific
markets on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped more than 2%,
while U.S.
stock index futures were modestly higher early on Monday
morning after a positive end to the week last week.
Friday’s relief rally came as
traders bet that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive at its upcoming
meeting. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that
the central bank is on track to lift interest rates by 75 basis points at its
meeting later this month, rather than a larger, full-percentage-point increase
that some analysts had forecast.
Recession fears have dominated
trading sentiment in recent weeks as market participants worry that aggressive
action from the Fed — in an effort to tame decades-high inflation — will
ultimately tip the economy into a recession.
Last week, fresh inflation data
showed consumer prices jumped 9.1%
in June, a hotter-than-expected reading and the largest increase
since 1981. That, in turn, led traders to bet that the Fed could raise rates by
a full percentage point at its meeting at the end of July.
Haleon shares are expected to
commence trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market as an independent,
listed company, after GSK shareholders approved the demerger of its consumer
health-care business.
There are no major earnings or data
releases Monday.
European
markets open to close, data, earnings (cnbc.com)
In other news, Europe’s
record breaking heatwave dominates the news. While most of the news focuses on
the rising human tragedy and toll, the hidden story is what economic damage is occurring
to the EU economy.
Crops are withering, shipping
on the Rhine and Danube has been affected by low water, power consumption has
soared as people try to keep cool. This is a great concern as no one knows if
Russia will reopen the Nord Stream One gas pipeline on July 21-22 after its
closure for “maintenance.”
Death
toll from brutal heat wave tops 350 in Spain
JULY 17, 2022 / 9:17 AM
The heat wave impacting Spain for several consecutive days has killed at
least 360 people, according to La Vanguardia. On
Friday alone, 123 deaths in the country were attributed to the record-breaking
heat.
Of the 360
deaths reported, the community of Madrid reported 22 deaths, while one
60-year-old municipal cleaning worker died Saturday during work.
On July 10, the first day of the heat wave, 15 heat-related deaths were
recorded. Since then, the number of daily deaths has increased every day. By
Wednesday, daily deaths attributed to the heat rose to 60 as temperatures
surpassed 40 degrees Celsius in parts of the country.
Madrid-Barajas
airport hit 108 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday, which broke its record for the
highest temperature ever recorded in the month of July. Spain reported 93
deaths attributed to the heat on Thursday.
The heat has been baking Portugal
and Spain with temperatures frequently topping 100 since Friday, July 8. Seville,
Spain, has been one of the hottest spots with the mercury soaring at or above
105 for nine consecutive days.
The temperature of 116.6 recorded
in Pinhão, Portugal, on Thursday became the highest
temperature ever recorded in the country in July. The country's
current July record stands at 115.7, which was set in Amareleja in 1995.
This heat wave
is expected to expand across Europe through this week and potentially through
the end of the month for some areas.
"There is
concern that this heat could become a long-duration heat wave (20 or more days)
for many locations from Portugal to central France and interior southeastern
Europe as it could last for the rest of July and continue into August,"
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. This includes the valleys of
Hungary, eastern Croatia, eastern Bosnia, Serbia, southern Romania and northern
Bulgaria.
The severity of
the heat could rival the 2003 heat wave when over 30,000 people lost their
lives, both directly and indirectly, due to the heat, according to Roys. He
added that this could be one of the worst heat waves in Europe since 1757.
The source of the
exceptionally warm air is Africa's Sahara Desert with heat projected to expand
farther north and east each day, reaching Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and
the United Kingdom later this weekend.
"July all-time records are at risk of being approached, tied or
even broken across Ireland and the United Kingdom," Roys said. "This
includes individual cities such as Birmingham, Dublin, Manchester and York."
On Friday, the U.K. Met Office issued
its first Red Extreme heat warning for
Monday and Tuesday, when the "exceptional hot spell" is
expected to take hold and bring "widespread impacts on people and
infrastructure."
Officials say
that during this first-ever-used national heat wave emergency, "illness and death may occur among the
fit and healthy - and not just in high-risk groups."
A new all-time
record high could be set in the U.K. during the peak of the unprecedented heat.
The current record in the country is 102 F (38.7 C), which was set in Cambridge
Botanica Garden on July 25, 2019. Londoners could experience temperatures
approaching the century mark during the peak of the heat early in the week.
In Paris, temperatures early this week could come within a
degree or two of 104 F (40 C). When temperatures reached this territory during
a heat wave in 2019, officials allowed Parisians to cool off in the Trocadero
Fountain near the Eiffel Tower. This measure could be taken again in the coming
days.
More
Death toll from brutal heat wave tops 350 in Spain - UPI.com
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Odds of US Recession
Within Next Year Near 50%, Survey Shows
Fri,
July 15, 2022 at 12:35 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Odds are now close to
even that the US economy will slip into a recession within the next year as
persistent and rapid inflation emboldens the Federal Reserve to pursue larger
interest-rate hikes.
The probability of a downturn over
the next 12 months stands at 47.5%, up sharply from 30% odds in June, according
to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. In March, those odds were
just 20%. The latest survey was conducted July 8-14, with 34 economists
responding about the chances of recession.
The Fed “has made it clear it is
prepared to sacrifice growth as it desperately tries to get a grip on inflation
via higher interest rates,” said James Knightley the, chief international
economist at ING. “This is also contributing to strongest dollar in 20 years,
which will hurt international competitiveness.”
“In this environment, we see the
clear risks of retrenchment in consumer spending while falling corporate profitability
means businesses start to hunker down,” Knightley said.
Economists slashed estimates for
second-quarter growth to a 0.8% annualized rate from a 3% median forecast in
last month’s survey. Growth is estimated to be less than 2% in the back half of
the year.
For 2022, gross domestic product is
seen averaging 2.1%, weaker than the 2.6% growth projection from the prior
month. In 2023, GDP is seen rising an average 1.3%.
Forecasts for the Fed’s key inflation
metric -- the personal consumption expenditures price index -- were raised for
each quarter this year. While most of the estimates were submitted prior to the
Wednesday release of the June consumer price index report, the PCE price gauge
is now seen averaging 6.3% in the current quarter on a year-over-year basis.
That’s 0.3 percentage point higher than last month’s estimate.
More
Odds of US
Recession Within Next Year Near 50%, Survey Shows (yahoo.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The
Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Japan's
COVID-19 cases surge past 100,000 daily in near record
JULY 17, 2022 / 11:59 AM
July 17 (UPI) -- COVID-19 cases
are spiking again in Japan with infections topping 100,000 for the first time
since a record in February during the emergence of the Omicron subvariant.
On Sunday,
Japan reported 105,564 cases for a total of 10,335,243 in 13th place worldwide
as the BA.5 Omicron subvariant spreads worldwide. Deaths rose by 17, bringing
the total to 31,615 in 31st.
In the first peak, cases hit 26,184 on Aug. 22, amid the Delta surge and
two weeks after the close of the 2020 Olympics in
Tokyo, which were delayed one year because of the pandemic. The cases record is
105,816 on Feb. 6.
Before the
Delta surge, the record was 7,785 on Aug. 19, 2021. In 2020, the most was 3,717
on Dec. 31.
Worldwide, in the past week,
infections dropped 3% at 6,387,270 with a daily average of 873,525, the highest
in three months, according to tracking by Worldometers.info. On Jan. 21, the
daily record was set at 3,840,795. The total so far Sunday is 567,072,826,
including 663,237 Saturday.
More
Japan's
COVID-19 cases surge past 100,000 daily in near record - UPI.com
WHO
advises against fluvoxamine, colchicine for COVID-19
JULY 15, 2022 / 10:18 AM
People shouldn't take the drugs colchicine and fluvoxamine to treat mild
to moderate COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) is warning.
The antidepressant drug fluvoxamine (Luvox) and the gout drug colchicine are commonly used and inexpensive drugs that
have received considerable interest as potential COVID-19 treatments.
However, there is insufficient evidence that either drug improves
important outcomes for patients, according to a WHO report produced by a panel
of experts and recently published online in The BMJ.
Fluvoxamine should only be used in clinical trials, the WHO report
advised, based on data from three randomized controlled trials involving more
than 2,000 patients.
The organization strongly advised against using colchicine at all, based
on data from seven clinical trials involving nearly 16,500 patients.
After reviewing the evidence, the WHO panel concluded that almost all
well-informed patients should choose not to take either drug for COVID-19.
Previously, the WHO has strongly recommended the use of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir in treating COVID-19. It has also issued
conditional recommendations for sotrovimab, remdesivir and molnupiravir for high-risk patients with non-severe
COVID-19.
For patients with severe COVID-19, the WHO strongly recommends
corticosteroids, with the addition of IL-6 receptor blockers or baricitinib,
the panel said in a journal news release.
More
WHO advises against fluvoxamine, colchicine for COVID-19 - UPI.com
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene-based bot developed to clean-up
microplastics
By Dr. Tim SandlePublished July 16, 2022
Scientists
from Sichuan University have developed tiny fish-shaped robots that are designed
to ‘swim’ around picking up microplastics, removing them from source, and
thereby helping to address the polluting effect from the worst excesses of
human existence. The bots represent a further advance with soft robotics.
As Digital Journal has
described, microplastics are formed by weathering and
physicochemical or biological degradation processes from macroscopic plastic
products, such as the tonnes of plastic waste in the oceans. Microplastics are
found nearly everywhere on Earth and can be harmful to animals if they’re
ingested.
Clearing
microplastics is challenging, especially when they settle into nooks and
crannies at the bottom of waterways. To address this, light-activated robotic
fish have been developed. These bots move (or ‘swim’) around quickly,
collecting and removing microplastics from the environment.
The robots are small, flexible and self-propelled devices
and they have been designed to reach these pollutants and clean them up. Since
traditional materials used for soft robots – hydrogels and elastomers – can be
damaged easily in aquatic environments, an alternative material has been
sourced. This material is inspired by nacre, which is strong and flexible, and
is found on the inside surface of clam shells. Using this concept, the
researchers developed their own synthetic equivalent.
For
this, the Chinese scientists linked β-cyclodextrin molecules to sulfonated
graphene, to develop composite nanosheets. Following this, the solutions of the
nanosheets were incorporated with different concentrations into polyurethane
latex mixtures.
By
using a layer-by-layer assembly method, it was possible to create an ordered
concentration gradient of the nanocomposites through the material. This
provided the template for the tiny fish robot.
The
robot is only 15 millimetres long and it moves by rapidly turning a
near-infrared light laser on and off, enabling a speed of move 2.67 body
lengths per second (equivalent to the velocity achieved by active phytoplankton
moving in water).
Trials
have demonstrated how the bot can repeatedly adsorb nearby polystyrene
microplastics and transport them elsewhere.
The research appears in the journal Nano Letter, with
the paper titled “Robust, Healable, Self-Locomotive Integrated Robots Enabled
by Noncovalent Assembled Gradient Nanostructure.”
Graphene-based
bot developed to clean-up microplastics - Digital Journal
There is no art which one government
sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the
people.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
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