Monday, 18 July 2022

Mutual Assured Economic Destruction.

 Baltic Dry Index. 2150 +140   Brent Crude 101.75

Spot Gold 1716          US 2 Year Yield 3.13 -0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 18/07/22 World 567,824,848

Deaths 6,378,753

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

In the Asian stock casinos, more hopium and exit rally. Europe’s markets excluding Italy’s are expected to follow.

But I suspect the week’s big story the week will be Europe’s devastating heatwave and what it’s doing to Europe’s economy and GDP.

Though by the end of the week this might be replaced by an EUSSR panic story led by Germany, if Russia doesn’t resume gas shipments via the Nord Stream One pipeline.

For the lack of providing Russia with viable security guarantees, the world has gone mad and embarked mutual assured economic destruction.

Hong Kong stocks rise more than 2% as Asia markets gain; New Zealand inflation at 32-year high

SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped more than 2%, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Monday.

The benchmark index was up 2.47%, and the Hang Seng Tech index jumped 2.63%. Meituan shares soared 6.64% and Longfor popped 6.43%.

Mainland China markets advanced. The Shanghai Composite was 1.49% higher and the Shenzhen Component rose 1.12%.

The Kospi climbed 1.78% and the Kosdaq was up 1.35%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.86%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.46%.

Japan’s market was closed for a holiday Monday.

“A positive tone should be the order of the day in Asian trading in a week with little local macro content to focus on,” ING’s Robert Carnell and Iris Pang wrote in a note on Monday, pointing to Wall Street’s rally on Friday and positive U.S. futures.

Vasu Menon, executive director of investment strategy at OCBC, said he sees more downside risk for volatile markets at this point given various uncertainties.

“But at the same time, you know, sentiment can change very quickly especially if you see positive economic data, positive earnings surprises, so it’s a very fluid situation,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

In economic data, New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 7.3% in the June 2022 quarter compared to the same period a year ago, official data showed Monday. That’s a 32-year high for the country, and the main driver was rising prices for construction and rentals for housing, Stats NZ said.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week raised interest rates by 50 basis points in a bid to fight inflation. The New Zealand dollar on Monday gained 0.28% to $0.6177.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Macao’s government said it would extend a suspension of operations for all industries, commercial companies and venues in the special administrative region until Friday.

Casino stocks listed in Hong Kong were hit last week when the initial announcement was made.

Later this week, investors will be looking out for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes, China’s one-year and five-year loan prime rate decision and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision.

On Friday in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than 600 points as markets reacted to bank earnings and economic data.

The Dow jumped 658.09 points or 2.15% to close at 31,288.26, and the S&P 500 rose 1.92% to 3,863.16. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.79% to 11,452.42.

More

Asia markets: Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 2% as regional shares gain (cnbc.com)

European markets head for cautiously higher open, continuing positive global trend

LONDON — European stocks are set to open cautiously higher on Monday after gains seen last Friday, although Italy’s main index is seen opening in negative territory amid political uncertainty.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 12 points higher at 7,129, Germany’s DAX 12 points higher at 12,881, France’s CAC 40 up 11 points at 6,051 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 51 points lower at 20,799, according to data from IG.

That comes amid more buoyant global sentiment. In Asia-Pacific markets on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped more than 2%, while U.S. stock index futures were modestly higher early on Monday morning after a positive end to the week last week.

Friday’s relief rally came as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive at its upcoming meeting. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that the central bank is on track to lift interest rates by 75 basis points at its meeting later this month, rather than a larger, full-percentage-point increase that some analysts had forecast.

Recession fears have dominated trading sentiment in recent weeks as market participants worry that aggressive action from the Fed — in an effort to tame decades-high inflation — will ultimately tip the economy into a recession.

Last week, fresh inflation data showed consumer prices jumped 9.1% in June, a hotter-than-expected reading and the largest increase since 1981. That, in turn, led traders to bet that the Fed could raise rates by a full percentage point at its meeting at the end of July.

Haleon shares are expected to commence trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market as an independent, listed company, after GSK shareholders approved the demerger of its consumer health-care business.

There are no major earnings or data releases Monday.

European markets open to close, data, earnings (cnbc.com)

In other news, Europe’s record breaking heatwave dominates the news. While most of the news focuses on the rising human tragedy and toll, the hidden story is what economic damage is occurring to the EU economy.

Crops are withering, shipping on the Rhine and Danube has been affected by low water, power consumption has soared as people try to keep cool. This is a great concern as no one knows if Russia will reopen the Nord Stream One gas pipeline on July 21-22 after its closure for “maintenance.”

Death toll from brutal heat wave tops 350 in Spain

JULY 17, 2022 / 9:17 AM

The heat wave impacting Spain for several consecutive days has killed at least 360 people, according to La Vanguardia. On Friday alone, 123 deaths in the country were attributed to the record-breaking heat.

Of the 360 deaths reported, the community of Madrid reported 22 deaths, while one 60-year-old municipal cleaning worker died Saturday during work.

On July 10, the first day of the heat wave, 15 heat-related deaths were recorded. Since then, the number of daily deaths has increased every day. By Wednesday, daily deaths attributed to the heat rose to 60 as temperatures surpassed 40 degrees Celsius in parts of the country.

Madrid-Barajas airport hit 108 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday, which broke its record for the highest temperature ever recorded in the month of July. Spain reported 93 deaths attributed to the heat on Thursday.

The heat has been baking Portugal and Spain with temperatures frequently topping 100 since Friday, July 8. Seville, Spain, has been one of the hottest spots with the mercury soaring at or above 105 for nine consecutive days.

The temperature of 116.6 recorded in Pinhão, Portugal, on Thursday became the highest temperature ever recorded in the country in July. The country's current July record stands at 115.7, which was set in Amareleja in 1995.

This heat wave is expected to expand across Europe through this week and potentially through the end of the month for some areas.

"There is concern that this heat could become a long-duration heat wave (20 or more days) for many locations from Portugal to central France and interior southeastern Europe as it could last for the rest of July and continue into August," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. This includes the valleys of Hungary, eastern Croatia, eastern Bosnia, Serbia, southern Romania and northern Bulgaria.

The severity of the heat could rival the 2003 heat wave when over 30,000 people lost their lives, both directly and indirectly, due to the heat, according to Roys. He added that this could be one of the worst heat waves in Europe since 1757.

The source of the exceptionally warm air is Africa's Sahara Desert with heat projected to expand farther north and east each day, reaching Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom later this weekend.

"July all-time records are at risk of being approached, tied or even broken across Ireland and the United Kingdom," Roys said. "This includes individual cities such as BirminghamDublinManchester and York."

On Friday, the U.K. Met Office issued its first Red Extreme heat warning for Monday and Tuesday, when the "exceptional hot spell" is expected to take hold and bring "widespread impacts on people and infrastructure."

Officials say that during this first-ever-used national heat wave emergency, "illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy - and not just in high-risk groups."

A new all-time record high could be set in the U.K. during the peak of the unprecedented heat. The current record in the country is 102 F (38.7 C), which was set in Cambridge Botanica Garden on July 25, 2019. Londoners could experience temperatures approaching the century mark during the peak of the heat early in the week.

In Paris, temperatures early this week could come within a degree or two of 104 F (40 C). When temperatures reached this territory during a heat wave in 2019, officials allowed Parisians to cool off in the Trocadero Fountain near the Eiffel Tower. This measure could be taken again in the coming days.

More

Death toll from brutal heat wave tops 350 in Spain - UPI.com

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Odds of US Recession Within Next Year Near 50%, Survey Shows

Fri, July 15, 2022 at 12:35 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Odds are now close to even that the US economy will slip into a recession within the next year as persistent and rapid inflation emboldens the Federal Reserve to pursue larger interest-rate hikes.

The probability of a downturn over the next 12 months stands at 47.5%, up sharply from 30% odds in June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. In March, those odds were just 20%. The latest survey was conducted July 8-14, with 34 economists responding about the chances of recession.

The Fed “has made it clear it is prepared to sacrifice growth as it desperately tries to get a grip on inflation via higher interest rates,” said James Knightley the, chief international economist at ING. “This is also contributing to strongest dollar in 20 years, which will hurt international competitiveness.”

“In this environment, we see the clear risks of retrenchment in consumer spending while falling corporate profitability means businesses start to hunker down,” Knightley said.

Economists slashed estimates for second-quarter growth to a 0.8% annualized rate from a 3% median forecast in last month’s survey. Growth is estimated to be less than 2% in the back half of the year.

For 2022, gross domestic product is seen averaging 2.1%, weaker than the 2.6% growth projection from the prior month. In 2023, GDP is seen rising an average 1.3%.

Forecasts for the Fed’s key inflation metric -- the personal consumption expenditures price index -- were raised for each quarter this year. While most of the estimates were submitted prior to the Wednesday release of the June consumer price index report, the PCE price gauge is now seen averaging 6.3% in the current quarter on a year-over-year basis. That’s 0.3 percentage point higher than last month’s estimate.

More

Odds of US Recession Within Next Year Near 50%, Survey Shows (yahoo.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Japan's COVID-19 cases surge past 100,000 daily in near record

JULY 17, 2022 / 11:59 AM

July 17 (UPI) -- COVID-19 cases are spiking again in Japan with infections topping 100,000 for the first time since a record in February during the emergence of the Omicron subvariant.

On Sunday, Japan reported 105,564 cases for a total of 10,335,243 in 13th place worldwide as the BA.5 Omicron subvariant spreads worldwide. Deaths rose by 17, bringing the total to 31,615 in 31st.

In the first peak, cases hit 26,184 on Aug. 22, amid the Delta surge and two weeks after the close of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, which were delayed one year because of the pandemic. The cases record is 105,816 on Feb. 6.

Before the Delta surge, the record was 7,785 on Aug. 19, 2021. In 2020, the most was 3,717 on Dec. 31.

Worldwide, in the past week, infections dropped 3% at 6,387,270 with a daily average of 873,525, the highest in three months, according to tracking by Worldometers.info. On Jan. 21, the daily record was set at 3,840,795. The total so far Sunday is 567,072,826, including 663,237 Saturday.

More

Japan's COVID-19 cases surge past 100,000 daily in near record - UPI.com

WHO advises against fluvoxamine, colchicine for COVID-19

JULY 15, 2022 / 10:18 AM

People shouldn't take the drugs colchicine and fluvoxamine to treat mild to moderate COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) is warning.

The antidepressant drug fluvoxamine (Luvox) and the gout drug colchicine are commonly used and inexpensive drugs that have received considerable interest as potential COVID-19 treatments.

However, there is insufficient evidence that either drug improves important outcomes for patients, according to a WHO report produced by a panel of experts and recently published online in The BMJ.

Fluvoxamine should only be used in clinical trials, the WHO report advised, based on data from three randomized controlled trials involving more than 2,000 patients.

The organization strongly advised against using colchicine at all, based on data from seven clinical trials involving nearly 16,500 patients.

After reviewing the evidence, the WHO panel concluded that almost all well-informed patients should choose not to take either drug for COVID-19.

Previously, the WHO has strongly recommended the use of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir in treating COVID-19. It has also issued conditional recommendations for sotrovimabremdesivir and molnupiravir for high-risk patients with non-severe COVID-19.

For patients with severe COVID-19, the WHO strongly recommends corticosteroids, with the addition of IL-6 receptor blockers or baricitinib, the panel said in a journal news release.

More

WHO advises against fluvoxamine, colchicine for COVID-19 - UPI.com

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene-based bot developed to clean-up microplastics

By Dr. Tim Sandle  Published

 

Scientists from Sichuan University have developed tiny fish-shaped robots that are designed to ‘swim’ around picking up microplastics, removing them from source, and thereby helping to address the polluting effect from the worst excesses of human existence. The bots represent a further advance with soft robotics.

As Digital Journal has described, microplastics are formed by weathering and physicochemical or biological degradation processes from macroscopic plastic products, such as the tonnes of plastic waste in the oceans. Microplastics are found nearly everywhere on Earth and can be harmful to animals if they’re ingested.

Clearing microplastics is challenging, especially when they settle into nooks and crannies at the bottom of waterways. To address this, light-activated robotic fish have been developed. These bots move (or ‘swim’) around quickly, collecting and removing microplastics from the environment.

The robots are small, flexible and self-propelled devices and they have been designed to reach these pollutants and clean them up. Since traditional materials used for soft robots – hydrogels and elastomers – can be damaged easily in aquatic environments, an alternative material has been sourced. This material is inspired by nacre, which is strong and flexible, and is found on the inside surface of clam shells. Using this concept, the researchers developed their own synthetic equivalent.

For this, the Chinese scientists linked β-cyclodextrin molecules to sulfonated graphene, to develop composite nanosheets. Following this, the solutions of the nanosheets were incorporated with different concentrations into polyurethane latex mixtures.

By using a layer-by-layer assembly method, it was possible to create an ordered concentration gradient of the nanocomposites through the material. This provided the template for the tiny fish robot.

The robot is only 15 millimetres long and it moves by rapidly turning a near-infrared light laser on and off, enabling a speed of move 2.67 body lengths per second (equivalent to the velocity achieved by active phytoplankton moving in water).

Trials have demonstrated how the bot can repeatedly adsorb nearby polystyrene microplastics and transport them elsewhere.

The research appears in the journal Nano Letter, with the paper titled “Robust, Healable, Self-Locomotive Integrated Robots Enabled by Noncovalent Assembled Gradient Nanostructure.”

Graphene-based bot developed to clean-up microplastics - Digital Journal

There is no art which one government sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the people.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

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