Wednesday, 6 May 2026

Hormuz, Another TACO. Stocks The Greatest Bubble Ever!

Baltic Dry Index. 2832 +102   Brent Crude 107.96

Spot Gold  4648                           Spot Silver 76.18

US 2 Year Yield 3.93 +0.02

US Federal Debt. 39.206 trillion

US GDP 32.092 trillion.

There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of the those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith

President Trump’s Project Freedom, launched Sunday to free roughly 400 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf unable to sail past the Strait of Hormuz, ended Tuesday. Ships “freed”, two.

Not to worry though, global stocks are bubbling like there’s no tomorrow. What’s not to like and yet?

Look away from that normalising US Treasury yield curve now.

South Korea’s Kospi tops 7,000 to hit a new high as heavyweight Samsung surges 15%

Published Tue, May 5 2026 7:47 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi hit another record Wednesday as Asia-Pacific markets saw a broad rally, tracking Wall Street gains overnight after oil prices dropped and strong earnings lifted investor sentiment.

Signaling diplomatic efforts for resolving the Middle East crisis were on track, President Donald Trump said the U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz had been paused.

“We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump said in his Truth Social post.

The U.S. military on Monday began guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday said that “two U.S. commercial ships, along with American destroyers, have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear.”

West Texas Intermediate futures for June was 1.78% lower at $100.45 per barrel as of 11:40 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures for July declined 1.70% to $108.00 per barrel.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 6.68% to scale a new peak, topping 7,000 as it builds on its more than 70% gains this year so far, after markets resumed trading following a holiday. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics reached a record high, rising over 15% to cross $1 trillion in market-cap. SK Hynix also reached an all-time high, gaining more than 10%. The small-cap Kosdaq index slipped 0.88%.

China’s CSI 300 added 1.62% as it resumed trading after Labor Day break. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.62%, while the Hang Seng Tech index gained 1.05%.

India’s Nifty 50 was 0.72% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.87%.

Japan market was closed due to a holiday.

S&P 500 futures added 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.6%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 30 points, or less than 0.1%.

During Tuesday’s regular session, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, hitting a new all-time high and closing at a record of 7,259.22. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.03%, touching a new high and notching a closing record of 25,326.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 356.35 points, or 0.73%, to end at 49,298.25.

Asia-Pacific markets today: Kospi, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Samsung crossses $1 trillion valuation as AI frenzy drives historic rally, lifting shares over 15%

Published Tue, May 5 2026 9:17 PM EDT

Shares of Samsung Electronics surged more than 15% Wednesday, pushing the chip giant’s market capitalization past the $1 trillion mark as investors continued to pile into artificial intelligence-linked stocks.

Samsung became the second Asian company to cross the $1 trillion mark, after TSMC. The company first crossed that $1 trillion market capitalization threshold on Feb. 26, according to FactSet data.

The company’s stock has breached a record high and is on course for the largest single-day gain on record, data from FactSet showed.

The rally followed Samsung Electronics’ record first-quarter earnings last week. Operating profit surged more than eightfold to 57.2 trillion won, while revenue climbed to a record 133.9 trillion Korean won.

Samsung’s first-quarter operating profit also topped its full-year 2025 profit of 43.6 trillion won.

The gains also followed a Bloomberg report that Apple has held exploratory talks with Samsung and Intel to produce chips for Apple devices in the U.S., potentially diversifying beyond longtime supplier TSMC.

Shares of South Korean chip behemoth SK Hynix also jumped more than 10%, helping push the benchmark index Kospi more than 5% to top 7,000 for the first time.

Sales of high-bandwidth memory, or HBM chips, have boosted Samsung’s profitability, but the company continues to face intense competition after losing its early lead in the HBM market to rival SK Hynix.

Samsung has been working to narrow the gap with SK Hynix in the fast-growing AI memory segment. In February, the company said it had become the world’s first firm to begin mass production of HBM4 chips and start deliveries to undisclosed customers.

HBM4 represents the sixth and latest generation of high-bandwidth memory technology. The chips are expected to play a key role in Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin AI architecture, which aims to power advanced AI workloads in data centers.

Analysts said the sharp rally in Samsung Electronics has been driven by booming AI-related memory demand, tightening supply conditions and improving competitiveness in high-bandwidth memory chips.

“There is a tremendous shortage in DRAM and NAND memory chips due to torrid AI demand, which is very memory hungry due to AI’s high bandwidth and storage needs,” said Morningstar’s technology equity analyst Yu Jing Jie.

DRAM chips are fast, volatile memory chips that temporarily store data while processors actively use it, while NAND chips are slower, non-volatile storage chips that retain data even when devices are powered off.

While memory makers are scrambling to expand production, Yu also noted that new semiconductor capacity typically takes two to three years to come online, meaning supply is likely to remain constrained in the near term. That has fueled expectations for stronger earnings growth and margins over the next one to two years.

More

Samsung crossses $1 trillion valuation as AI frenzy drives historic rally, lifting shares over 15%

Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress

Published Tue, May 5 2026 7:06 PM EDT

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he is pausing “Project Freedom,” the U.S. military’s effort to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, one day after the operation began.

Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the decision was based in part on “the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement” with Iran.

Project Freedom “will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump wrote.

Stock futures rose following Trump’s announcement, which raised hopes for a peace agreement that would end the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and reopen the economically vital strait.

It also represented a surprising about-face from the Trump administration, which just hours earlier had framed Project Freedom as a matter of life or death for thousands of civilian sailors.

The Trump administration has said that nearly 23,000 sailors on vessels representing 87 countries have been stranded in the Persian Gulf because of Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the White House Tuesday afternoon that the goal of Project Freedom is to “rescue” those sailors, who have been “left for dead” by the Iranian regime.

“Nations from around the world, the overwhelming majority of whom are not even engaged in any military hostilities, are now at risk, not just of losing their cargo, but the lives of their own citizens because of this blockade,” Rubio said.

“They’re sitting ducks. They’re isolated, they’re starving, they’re vulnerable, and at least 10 sailors have already died as a result” of Iran’s blockade, he said.

Trump announced Project Freedom on Sunday evening, saying the U.S. has assured countries whose vessels are stuck due to the war that it will “guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways.”

U.S. Central Command said Sunday evening that the military would deploy “guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members” to support the operation.

Defense and geopolitical experts told CNBC earlier Tuesday they were skeptical that Project Freedom would achieve its goals.

Iran, meanwhile, had responded to the U.S. military moves with renewed hostility, putting further strain on an already shaky ceasefire with the U.S.

The United Arab Emirates said Monday it was attacked with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones coming from Iran, resulting in three injuries.

More

Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress

The World: Can Trump strong-arm Iran?

May 6, 2026

Good morning, world. President Trump clearly wants to end the war in Iran. First, he tried scare tactics. But his ultimatums proved flexible and his threats to wipe out a civilization empty (at least so far). Now he’s trying to inflict financial pain on the Iranian leadership. But his blockade isn’t faring much better. And last night, Trump paused the U.S. operation to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz after just one day.

Trump’s inability to force the Islamic republic to do what he wants, from opening the strait to giving up its nuclear stockpile, points to a larger truth: Maybe America doesn’t understand Iran. Today my colleague Steven Erlanger, our chief diplomatic correspondent, writes about why there may be no easy way to end this war.

The World: Can Trump strong-arm Iran?

‘Misplaced euphoria’: Markets are sleepwalking into a recession amid Iran war oil price shock

Published Mon, May 4 2026 8:50 AM EDT

Global economies could be “sleepwalking” into a “big recession”, as investors continue to underplay the impact of the oil price shock, Amrita Sen, founder and director, market intelligence at Energy Aspect, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time intraday high last week, with the broad market index touching 7,230.12 on May 1. That’s despite a surge in the cost of energy caused by the war in the Middle East — with oil prices soaring more than 50% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on Feb. 28.

“This has been the biggest conundrum for us — if anything, we think oil should be higher and the equity market should be a lot, lot weaker,” Sen said.

“I think we’re sleepwalking into potentially a pretty big recession.”

Sen said there is an “extremely misplaced euphoria” among many investors, who she believes are continuing to dismiss the ongoing energy squeeze as an issue affecting mainly Asian economies.

OPEC has pledged to ramp up its oil production, though Sen cautioned that this increase remains largely symbolic and falls short of what is needed to replace lost supply.

‘Massive energy crisis’

“The story is really when Hormuz reopens, and at what capacity and what pace it reopens,” she noted. “If you assume that the Strait remains disrupted for a longer period of time, you are saying that we all need to go back to 2013 demand levels, about 10 million barrels per day less… we’ve added a billion more people. I think that’s the challenge we have right now — we need oil prices to go up so that we can get the demand reduction.”

Looking ahead, Sen said she expects $80-90 a barrel to be the new floor going forward, adding that higher-for-longer prices will reverberate across commodity markets, highlighting the impact on LNG, chemicals and fertilizers, among other assets.

“Just wait for food prices to start going up because of what’s going on; the lack of urea transport; and natural gas prices, or natural gas being curtailed in the fertilizer sector,” she said.  

“This is a massive, massive energy crisis. I have been equally amazed at how the equity market is completely dismissing it, talking about how great Q1 results are. They are not going to be great nearly to the same extent in Q2.”

More

Stock market 'euphoria' masks looming Iran war recession risk

California braces for uncertainty as last shipment of Persian Gulf oil arrives in Long Beach

Sun, May 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM GMT+1

The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

The New Corolla loaded up in Iraq on Feb. 24 — just days before U.S. and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran, plunging the region into turmoil and sparking a double blockade of commercial shipping.

In two weeks, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker will have fully unloaded at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and departed again for distant waters. After that, California must figure out how to replace some 200,000 barrels of oil a day that will no longer be arriving from the Persian Gulf.

California's own supply of crude oil has been declining since the 1980s, due to aging fields and a geology that makes drilling particularly costly. The state's gasoline refining capacity is also falling off, increasing reliance on imports and highlighting California's status as an isolated energy island without gas pipelines to bring in supply from other states.

Now, with the end of the Middle East conflict nowhere in sight and the average cost of California gasoline topping $6 per gallon, some lawmakers are warning of potential oil and gas shortages.

So far during the Iran war, oil deliveries to California have remained relatively steady. The state imports about 75% of its oil from foreign countries and Alaska. Last year it brought in a mix from Brazil, Iraq, Guyana, Canada, Ecuador, Argentina and Saudi Arabia as its top international suppliers, with about 30% coming from the Middle East.

In March and April, that mix didn't change much, with California receiving about 21% and 14% of its foreign oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, respectively, according to the data analytics firm Kpler.

Shipments that left before Iran blocked off the Strait of Hormuz in late February have continued to arrive on a one-to-two-month lag time, about the same time it takes for a tanker to make the voyage. But if the strait remains closed through May, “all bets are off,” said Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking.

"Refineries have to source from elsewhere, and they are scrambling to find where to get that oil," said Susan Bell, a senior vice president at the consulting firm Rystad Energy. "They don't have very many options."

More

California braces for uncertainty as last shipment of Persian Gulf oil arrives in Long Beach

In other news.

HSBC takes $400 million hit from private-credit alleged fraud

5 May 2026

HSBC set aside $400 million relating to an alleged fraud in private markets in the U.K., marring its quarterly results. Shares of the bank fell more than 5% in London.

HSBC gave few details about the incident in its results Tuesday, beyond saying the provision reflected a “fraud-related, secondary, securitisation exposure with a financial sponsor in the U.K.”

On calls with journalists and analysts, Chief Financial Officer Pam Kaur said HSBC had lent to a private-equity company, which in turn had exposure to underlying private-credit assets that had been securitized—i.e., sliced up and parceled into securities for investors to trade.

“We regard this charge as idiosyncratic,” Kaur said. “We have completed a review of the highest areas of risk in our portfolio and haven’t identified any comparable fraud concerns.”

Kaur declined to name the company involved in the alleged fraud. Kaur said HSBC had relied on due diligence by private-equity companies, and would look to toughen up its procedures to prevent a repeat.

The private-credit industry has grown rapidly in recent years, but a series of bankruptcies and alleged frauds over the past year have raised concerns about the quality of loans made by such lenders.

Some of the private-credit blowups have stung banks, raising concerns among investors and regulators about links between private-credit funds and the banking industry.

After the 2008-09 financial crisis, tougher regulations encouraged banks to cut back on some riskier forms of lending. Wall Street investors, often funded by insurers, rushed to fill the gap. The business came to be known as private credit. HSBC, like many other large banks, makes loans to the private-credit industry.

HSBC’s first-quarter net profit was largely flat as higher credit charges amid the Middle East conflict offset the strength in its Hong Kong, U.K. and wealth businesses.

The London-based bank said Tuesday that it booked $1.3 billion in expected credit losses and other impairment charges in the first quarter, partly due to a roughly $300 million increase in allowances to reflect heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook following the onset of the war.

The bank, which makes much of its profit in Asia, has significant operations in Middle Eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

HSBC said it would continue to target a return on tangible equity—a key profitability measure for banks—of 17% or better over the next three years, excluding notable items.

On Monday, the lender agreed to sell its retail-banking business in Indonesia to Singapore’s Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. HSBC said strategic reviews remain under way for its retail businesses in Australia and Egypt and its life-insurance business in Singapore.

Chief Executive Georges Elhedery has been pushing the bank to focus on its strengths: retail banking in the U.K. and Hong Kong, acting as a bridge for large companies to global markets, and helping wealthy clients with their finances.

Last week, rival Standard Chartered disclosed $190 million in precautionary credit charges related to the Middle East conflict.

HSBC said Tuesday that net profit rose 0.1% from a year earlier to $6.94 billion for the three months ended March. That missed the $7.02 billion estimate in a poll of analysts by data provider Visible Alpha.

HSBC takes $400 million hit from private-credit alleged fraud

The nuclear option: Atomic energy could offer Europe hope, say analysts — but it won’t be easy

Published Mon, May 4 2026 1:00 AM EDT

Hefty upfront costs, issues disposing of radiation and waste, and memories of terrible accidents have all contributed to Europe’s reluctance to embrace nuclear energy in recent decades.

But the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran war has exposed the continent’s vulnerability to disrupted energy imports – and nuclear may offer Europe a lifeline.

IEA chief Fatih Birol previously told CNBC that nuclear power would get a “boost” from the supply crisis and urged governments to bolster their resilience with alternative energy sources.

Nuclear energy produces significantly fewer emissions than fossil fuels, plants take up minimal space on the landscape, and reactors are extremely reliable in all weather conditions.

“I think nuclear has to play a big role in solving this problem for Europe,” Chris Seiple, vice chairman of Wood Mackenzie’s power and renewables division, told CNBC.

The U.S., China and France are all better placed to deal with the supply shock caused by the war, in part because they are the three largest producers of nuclear energy worldwide. 

“If you don’t have a natural energy supply, then your energy costs are going to be higher to import it from somewhere, or you’re going to have to build some degree of nuclear,” Michael Browne, global investment strategist at Franklin Templeton, told CNBC.

“It’s expensive but very efficient, as France has shown. French energy prices are significantly lower than German prices.”

More

Can nuclear energy solve Europe’s energy crisis? Here's why it won’t be easy

All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.

Friedrich August von Hayek

Australia hikes rates again and warns inflation will stay higher for longer

Published Tue, May 5 2026 12:33 AM EDT

Australia’s central bank on Tuesday raised its policy rate to 4.35%, matching its December 2024 peak, as inflation remains elevated.

The move by the Reserve Bank of Australia was in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists and marked its third consecutive rate increase.

Eight members of the board voted for the hike, while one voted to hold rates at 4.1%.

In its statement, the RBA said inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025, with conflict in the Middle East pushing up fuel and commodity prices.

“As expected, developments in the Middle East are having an impact on inflation. Higher fuel prices are adding to inflation and there are indications that this is likely to have second-round effects on prices for goods and services more broadly,” it added.

The central bank said that inflation is likely to remain above its 2% to 3% target for some time and that the risks remain elevated.

The RBA also appeared to signal that more rate hikes were on the horizon, with its economic forecasts pencilling in a 4.7% policy rate in December 2026, 50 basis points higher than projected in early February.

Should the policy rate exceed 4.35%, it would be the highest since December 2011.

Inflation forecasts for the bank were also upgraded to 4.8% for the June quarter and 4% for the year ending 2026, up from the previous February forecast of 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively.

Economic growth for 2026 was revised down to 1.3% from 1.8%.

ANZ Bank said in a note after the meeting that the RBA’s tone was “more hawkish than we expected,” adding that there was no clear opening to a pause in June as it expected.

“That does not necessarily mean that another rate increase is a foregone conclusion but instead signals that the Board’s preference is to keep its options open,” the bank said.

Australia’s economy grew 2.6% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, its fastest pace in two years, beating expectations.

The decision follows recent inflation data showing price pressures remain persistent. Consumer prices rose 4.09% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the highest in more than two years.

In March, inflation climbed to 4.6%, the highest since Australia began publishing monthly consumer price index data in 2025.

The RBA had signaled at its March meeting that further rate increases were likely, though policymakers differed on timing.

“Developments in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, but under a wide range of possible scenarios could add to global and domestic inflation,” the RBA said after its March meeting.

The RBA will hike rates to 4.60% in the third quarter of this year, according to Abhijit Surya, Senior APAC Economist at Capital Economics.

“Given the potential for incoming inflation data to surprise to the upside of the RBA’s expectations, we think further policy tightening remains likely,” Surya added.

Australia hikes rates again and warns inflation will stay higher for longer

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Today, something different. What’s going on/wrong at United.

UAL169 Boeing 767 COLLIDES With Light Pole and Truck | Captain Steeeve

UAL169 Boeing 767 COLLIDES With Light Pole and Truck | Captain Steeeve

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

Liberty not only means that the individual has both the opportunity and the burden of choice; it also means that he must bear the consequences of his actions. Liberty and responsibility are inseparable.

Friedrich August von Hayek

Tuesday, 5 May 2026

More Iran War. Oil Soars. Rising Supply Chain Stress.

Baltic Dry Index. 2730 +44    Brent Crude 113.09

Spot Gold  4539                          Spot Silver 73.18

US 2 Year Yield 3.95 +0.07

US Federal Debt. 39.202 trillion

US GDP 32.089 trillion.

Remember everything is right until it's wrong. You'll know when it's wrong.

Ernest Hemingway

Has the Iran war restarted? Though President Trump claims it’s over, it doesn’t look that way following yesterday’s claims and counter claims.

By the end of today we should know, as should the stock casinos.

If war, get ready for $150 dollar oil, and massive supply chain destruction.

If “peace,” for how long and what kind of “peace?”

Look away from those rising US interest rates now.

Shares slide, oil prices elevated as U.S.-Iran truce prospects dim

Published Mon, May 4 2026 10:54 PM EDT

Stocks in Asia slid on Tuesday while oil prices eased but remained well above $100 a barrel, as the U.S. and Iran continue to work towards a truce while at the same time trading blows over the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders also had their eyes on the yen JPY= after the Japanese currency briefly jumped in the previous session, stoking speculation of another round of intervention from Tokyo.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3%. Shares in Australia fell 0.4% in thinned Asia trade, while markets in Japan and South Korea were closed for a holiday.

Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures edged down about 0.1% each, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.2% and FTSE futures fell 0.75%.

The U.S. and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf on Monday as they wrestled for control over the Strait of Hormuz with dueling maritime blockades, not long after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a new effort to get stranded tankers and other ships through the vital energy-trade chokepoint.

Maersk said the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle carrier operated by its Farrell Lines subsidiary, exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by U.S. military assets on Monday.

Still, the renewed hostilities jolted markets and served as a stark reminder that the war in the Middle East was far from over.

“We started yesterday with high hopes that operation ‘Project Freedom’ would be, I guess, a success on the ground, that it was being pitched as more of a humanitarian effort,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

“But as we saw, the Iranians weren’t taking that bait at all... It really signifies that the stalemate remains in place, it’s been a very shaky start.”

In oil markets, Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 0.5% to $113.85 a barrel while U.S. crude CLc1 slid 1.3% to $105.03, having jumped in the previous session on heightened worries about supply disruption.

Geopolitics aside, investors were also bracing for earnings reports this week, with Advanced Micro Devices and Pfizer among those set to release results later in the day.

Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed 83% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported have beaten EPS estimates and 78.2% of them have beaten revenue estimates.

“With no signs of slowing down, AI-driven spending will likely continue to do the heavy lifting for S&P 500 earnings growth, led by the technology sector,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.

More

Shares slide, oil prices elevated as U.S.-Iran truce prospects dim

Iran attacks UAE; U.S. says it sank boats in Strait of Hormuz

Published Mon, May 4 2026 11:21 AM EDT Updated Mon, May 4 2026 5:42 PM EDT

An already shaky ceasefire between the United States and Iran appeared to be on the verge of collapse Monday, as the United Arab Emirates came under attack from Iranian drones and missiles and the U.S. said it sank Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump, in a Fox News interview later Monday, warned Iran that it will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets U.S. ships that are protecting commercial vessels transiting the strait.

Trump also said in a Truth Social post that a South Korean cargo ship had come under fire from Iran in the waterway. “Perhaps it’s time for South Korea to come and join the mission!” Trump wrote in the post.

Stock market indices closed sharply lower and oil prices rose on Monday, as investors’ fears grew that the war’s impact on the global economy could be exacerbated or prolonged.

The escalation came less than a day after Trump announced “Project Freedom,” an attempt by the U.S. to “free” ships that have been stranded as a result of Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the hostilities, Trump avoided saying that the ceasefire with Iran — which he announced on April 7 and later extended unilaterally — had been violated, ABC News journalist Jonathan Karl said after speaking with the president on the phone.

More

UAE says Iran launched missile attack despite ceasefire

Iran War May Reignite Over Strait Stalemate

May 4, 2026 at 11:23 PM GMT+1

Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates on Monday for the first time in almost a month as the weeks-long stalemate between the US and Iran showed signs of devolving into conflict again. The UAE said its air defense systems engaged with 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones fired from Iran at different parts of the Gulf country. Alerts in the UAE came hours after a tanker owned by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. was said to have been fired upon by Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz. And an oil terminal part owned by Vitol Group was said to have been attacked in the port city of Fujairah.

The strikes came as the US military said it helped two American-flagged ships go through the strait as part of a new effort announced by President Donald Trump to open a lane through the waterway. The US said it fought off attacks from Iranian drones, missiles and armed small boats. While one shipping company appeared to confirm the American operation, saying its ship was escorted from the area, the broader details of the plan remain unclearDavid E. Rovella

----Oil prices surged on the new hostilities in the Gulf area as critical energy infrastructure and tankers came under attack. Brent futures shot up 5.8% to settle above $114 a barrel. The global market loses millions of barrels of oil supplies for every day that the key shipping lane remains blocked, heightening fears of demand destruction and a global economic recession.

Equities meanwhile dropped from all-time highs. And with oil prices not far from a four-year peak, the decline in Treasuries sent 30-year yields above 5%. Here’s your markets wrap.

Strait Stalemate May Reignite War: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Global oil prices top $114 and settle at 4-year high after Iranian attacks on U.A.E. revive worries of further supply disruptions

U.A.E. issues a missile-threat alert for the first time since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a cease-fire in early April

Last Updated: May 4, 2026 at 3:43 p.m. ET First Published: May 4, 2026 at 7:16 a.m. ET

Global oil prices on Monday surged back above $114 per barrel and settled at its highest level in nearly four years, after Iran ramped up attacks on energy facilities in United Arab Emirates and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the worst escalation in Middle East tensions ever since the U.S.-Iran cease-fire about a month ago.

The United Arab Emirates on Monday issued a missile-threat warning for the first time since the U.S. and Iran agreed to the cease-fire in early April, and the Associated Press reported that an Iranian drone sparked a fire at an oil facility in the U.A.E.’s eastern emirate of Fujairah.

Fujairah is the Emirates’ primary port and oil-storage facility on the Gulf of Oman and has been used during the Iran war to ship some oil to avoid going through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed to commercial traffic since early March.

----Investors also weighed conflicting reports of an Iranian strike on a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning. In a post on X, an account for Iran’s Fars News Agency said that two Iranian missiles struck a U.S. Navy ship after it “violated security protocols for transit and navigation with the intent to pass through the Strait of Hormuz” and ignored warnings from the Iranian navy.

But U.S. Central Command denied that report and said “no U.S. Navy ships have been struck. U.S. forces are enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports.”

The latest development came after President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social over the weekend that the U.S. would launch a new effort starting Monday called Project Freedom to help get ships from neutral countries moving through the vital waterway.

Trump also said there had been “very positive discussions” with Iran, which “could lead to something very positive for all,” although he didn’t provide details on either development.

More

Global oil prices top $114 and settle at 4-year high after Iranian attacks on U.A.E. revive worries of further supply disruptions - MarketWatch

In commodities news, confusion.

Study Group shines some light on Doctor Copper's confusion

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Where next for Doctor Copper?

After January's frenzied rush to record highs, the copper market is now nervously treading water, bobbing to the ever-changing news flow around the Iran crisis.

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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is both bullish and bearish for the copper price.

The Gulf is a major ​exporter of sulphur and copper miners using leaching technology need a lot of sulphuric acid. Solvent extraction and electrowinning accounts for a quarter of global refined metal output.

But the ‌broader economic fallout from higher energy prices threatens a slowdown in manufacturing activity and therefore copper demand. It's a risk that grows with each day the Strait remains closed.

The Iran crisis accentuates the confused and confusing play of opposing forces in the copper price.

Supply is problematic. So too is demand. At $13,000 per metric ton, London Metal Exchange three-month copper is pricing scarcity. Yet exchange warehouses are full of metal and time-spreads are in deep contango, signalling abundance.

The latest ​forecasts from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shed some welcome statistical light on Doctor Copper's current dilemma.

FINELY BALANCED

Copper's fundamental outlook depends on which deteriorates faster - supply or demand.

Global mined production ​grew by just 0.9% in 2025 relative to 2024 after big production hits in ChileIndonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The lingering impact of those incidents has ⁠caused the ICSG to revise downwards expected mine production growth this year to 1.6% from 2.3% when it last met in October.

The ongoing squeeze in the copper concentrates segment of the market, reflected ​in historically low smelter treatment charges, is expected to restrain refined metal production growth to just 0.4% this year.

So far, so bullish.

But the ICSG also cut its copper usage forecast for this year to ​1.6% from October's 2.1%, citing the Iran crisis, which is "likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand".

The Group has flipped its 2026 market balance assessment from October's anticipated shortfall of 150,000 metric tons to a small 96,000-ton supply surplus.

Relative to the 29 million tons of copper that will be used this year, this is a marginal change but one that captures copper's fine balancing act between simultaneous risks on both supply and demand ​sides of the equation.

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Study Group shines some light on Doctor Copper's confusion | Reuters

In other news. What could possibly go wrong?

Private credit turns to financial alchemy as an antidote to ‘peak anxiety’

Published Sat, May 2 2026 9:39 AM EDT

Ghosts of the 2008 financial crisis are haunting Wall Street as private equity firms are pooling and repackaging troubled corporate debt in a bid to raise liquidity.

Redemptions from private credit funds have been spiking on fears of potentially bad loans in application software and other sectors, driven by the ascent of artificial intelligence and hurt by a higher-for-longer short-term interest rate regime.

Private equity firms are securitizing those loans, and combining them with higher quality debt into larger investment vehicles in order to extend their shelf lives ahead of maturities. They’re also selling off portions of larger funds to manage exposures.

“This obviously is an attempt to take the proverbial sow’s ear and turn it into a silk purse,” Westwood Capital cofounder Dan Alpert told CNBC. “That follows the same pattern that we saw during the 2008 crisis: Let’s see if we can take the remainder of the unleveraged portion of the private credit loan and package it in securitizations.”

Panelists at a private credit conference in Nashville earlier this month described the private credit environment as “one of ‘peak anxiety,’” according to analysts at KBRA, a credit rating agency.

While loan defaults haven’t occurred en masse, default rates are elevated, multiple ratings agencies say. In the first quarter, a record number of companies were downgraded two or more levels in KBRA’s default monitor range, the agency said Thursday.

KBRA chief ratings officer William Cox told CNBC that securitizations and other efforts to extend debt maturities are acting to soften any blows in the sector.

“What we’re seeing is that those different vehicles in the spreading around of the loans, and therefore the risk, [have] actually been a shock absorber for these relatively elevated – but still manageable – rates of default,” Cox said.

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Private credit turns to financial alchemy as an antidote to 'peak anxiety'

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

How fiat money fails, gradually then suddenly, with apologies to Earnest Hemingway.

Price of a pint crosses £10 in London for the first time

Bryony Gooch Mon, 4 May 2026 at 6:24 am BST

The cost of a pint has passed £10 in London as the price of beer continues to soar.

A number of high-end bars are now charging £10 or more for draught or bottled beer. Stanley’s rooftop bar in Mayfair is one of many establishments that has hiked the cost of its beer.

A pint of Moretti or Heineken is sold at £11, while a half pint is going for £8. Guinness is sold at £10 a pint, according to the menu for the bar, attached to the Chesterfield hotel.

The cost of bottled beer is even steeper; the Connaught Grill in Mayfair is charging £12.50 for a 330ml bottle of Noam lager or Curious IPA.

It comes months after Guinness makers Diageo revealed draught prices would surge by 5.2 per cent in April as operational costs continue to rise for the business. Pub owners told the Morning Advertiser that Diageo seemed “hell-bent on having the first £10 a pint beer.”

London is one of the most expensive places in the country to buy a pint, with the Morning Advertiser putting the average price at £6.50, below Oxford at £6.75.

As the £7 pint becomes commonplace in the capital, industry experts are warning that the government needed to do more to keep prices affordable.

Ash Corbett-Collins, Camra’s chair, told The Telegraph: “It’s not surprising pint prices are rising across London and the UK, but our pubs and breweries should not be blamed. Extreme financial pressures from the Government are forcing publicans to either raise their prices or consider closing for good.

“The Government must recognise pubs for the essential wellbeing benefits their community spaces provide, and their essential contributions to the economy.

“They must recognise increased employer National Insurance contributions are adding to cost pressures, commit to a fairer business rates system, lower VAT on food and drink for hospitality businesses as well as alcohol duties so publicans can keep their doors open and pub-going becomes affordable again.”

The average pint price in the UK is £4.52, according to the British Beer and Pub Association, with lager costing £4.82. Meanwhile, the number of pubs continues to go down across the country.

Pub landlords welcomed the news in January that the government planned to U-turn business-rate relief for the hospitality industry.

Rachel Reeves had previously announced plans to scale back the business-rate discount that has been in force since the pandemic, from 75 per cent to 40 per cent.

Price of a pint crosses £10 in London for the first time - Yahoo News UK

Several UK high street giants set to close down this week - see full list

3 May 2026

A string of well-known British brands have become the latest high street casualties this week as they've pulled down the shutters. Numerous businesses are battling amid a surge of cost increases.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has disclosed that UK retailers have been hammered with a "£5.6 billion wave of additional costs" spanning 2025 and 2026. Expenses include a cut in rates relief, increased wages, fresh packaging levies and the April 2026 surge in property values.

Additionally, further rises loom on the horizon as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has cautioned that the economic impact from the Iran war will "go on". Regrettably, several shops have vanished from the high street this week as they took the difficult decision to shut down.

Claire's

In a devastating blow, Claire's shuttered all 154 of its UK outlets this week. Administrators at Kroll confirmed the closures and revealed that approximately 1,300 staff will lose their jobs as a consequence.

The decision didn't impact Claire's 356 concessions, including numerous branches in Asda stores, and its headquarters. Nevertheless, the Guardian reports that Claire's might be poised to relaunch four to 10 shops weekly from June onwards.

Claire's had previously closed 145 outlets, with roughly 1,000 positions axed, during the earlier administration last year.

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Several UK high street giants set to close down this week - see full list

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Three-phase battery kit offers alternative to diesel generators

03 May 2026

Clayton Power has introduced a 400V three-phase battery system that can do the job of a large diesel generator.

The E-gen system is designed to sit in the back of a van or pickup, allowing welders, compressors and other high-output equipment to be run without the need to have an engine revving away.

It’s also capable of putting out 230V and 12V supplies, giving the option of running lower powered gear for extended periods of time.

Output can be tailored to the task at hand by daisy chaining the appropriate number of 6kW battery packs together.

These are joined by cables, which are then hidden behind covers to give a neat, uncluttered finish.

Charging takes about eight hours, so users need to make sure they have enough capacity for a full day’s work and then replenish the cells overnight.

For now, Clayton Power is offering the E-gen as a hire only system, which means users can get them for specific contracts and, if using them for extended periods of time, need not worry about any long-term battery degradation.

Prices start at about £400 a month which, according to the firm, can be less than the monthly fuel bill of running a large diesel generator day in, day out.

Three-phase battery kit offers alternative to diesel generators - Farmers Weekly

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

China has installed the world’s largest floating offshore wind turbine, taking a big step forward in deep-sea renewable energy.

The 16-megawatt turbine, named “Three Gorges Pilot,” was set up on Saturday more than 43 miles (70 kilometers) off the coast of Yangjiang in Guangdong Province, according to the project’s developers.

The new system centers on a 16 MW wind turbine supported by a floating structure. Unlike traditional offshore turbines, this one can work on a semi-submerged base, allowing it to operate in deeper waters where winds are stronger.

Interesting Engineering.