The Fed Sticks. Stocks Tumble. BoE Next. That Other Evian Conference.

Baltic Dry Index. 2653 -0.17    Brent Crude 77.93

Spot Gold 4316                           Spot Silver 69.71

US 2 Year Yield 4.20 +0.15

US Federal Debt. 39.265 trillion

US GDP 32.223 trillion.

“As government expands, liberty contracts.”

Ronald Reagan

As expected, Trump’s new Chairman of the Fed and the gang, left interest rates unchanged.

US stock casinos sold off. For much of the last few months the stock casinos were betting on an interest rate cut.

US Treasury yields rose. Crude oil slipped, but for other reasons.

Today, it’s the turn of the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, the BoE to play with UK interest rates.

Stock futures rise as Fed hints at possible rate hike in 2026; Nikkei hits 71,000 for the first time: Live updates

Updated Thu, Jun 18 2026 9:39 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures ticked higher on Wednesday night after the Federal Reserve indicated the possibility of a rate hike this year.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 73 points, or slightly more than 0.1%.

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed, with South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumping to fresh records.

The Kospi rose 0.89%. Index heavyweight SK Hynix advanced 3.45% to notch a fresh high, while Samsung Electronics rose 1.23%. The small-cap Kosdaq declined 0.5%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded 1.79% higher to rise above 71,000 for the first time, while the Topix was up 1.48%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 slid 0.29%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.76%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 was flat.

Wednesday marked the first meeting of the Federal Reserve with Kevin Warsh at the helm of the U.S. central bank. At the conclusion of the meeting, the Fed kept the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged and anchored in a range of between 3.5% and 3.75%.

Policymakers’ “dot plot” revealed that several Fed officials now see interest rates increasing in 2026. The median estimate for the year-end interest rate now stands at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in prior projections from March, suggesting that at least one rate hike could be in the picture in 2026.

Complicating the forecast was Warsh’s decision to abstain from submitting a rate forecast.

Following the meeting, stocks fell across the board. The Dow, which had hit a new all-time intraday high earlier in the day, ultimately declined 507.12 points, or 0.98%. The S&P 500 fell 1.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.34%.

On the other hand, bond yields jumped. The two-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.22%.

“The Fed held rates steady but spoiled the mood with a much more hawkish dot plot. Elevated inflation makes that understandable, but the committee is far from united, with only about half still penciling in rate hikes later this year,” said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group. “The bigger point is that policy still looks loose for an economy where inflation remains a problem and the labor market is stabilizing.”

“The market doesn’t like regime change,” added David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Wednesday afternoon.

Accenture and Kroger will report earnings before Thursday’s opening bell. Traders will also watch out for May’s leading indicators and June’s Philadelphia Fed Index reading, alongside initial jobless claims from the week ended June 13.

Stock market today: Live updates

Warsh experiences worst ‘Fed day’ S&P 500 performance for a new chair since 1994

Published Wed, Jun 17 2026 4:14 PM EDT Updated Wed, Jun 17 2026 4:30 PM EDT

If the stock market is a report card, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh isn’t coming out of his first policy meeting with high marks.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.2% in Wednesday’s session, with losses steepening during and after Warsh’s inaugural press conference as chairman.

That marks the worst performance for the broad index on the first “Fed day” under a new chair since 1994, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

To be sure, there have been only three other new Fed leaders named in that timespan: Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen. While those chairs’ first Fed meeting days saw the S&P 500 close lower, none were of the magnitude seen on Wednesday.

Bespoke’s figures go back to 1994 because prior to that year, the central bank did not formally announce its rate target. Greenspan ushered in that practice as chair.

Some investors saw Warsh’s focus on delivering stable price growth as a sign that future interest rate cuts may not be as likely as previously anticipated. The Fed held interest rates steady as the market widely expected on Wednesday — despite the clear push for cuts from President Donald Trump, who nominated Warsh.

“He is absolutely telling you that he plans on delivering on price stability,” DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “That means... we’re not going to have such easy money policy as everybody thought maybe Chairman Warsh would do back in the first quarter of this year, when everyone was counting on rate cuts.”

In fact, traders are increasingly expecting the opposite scenario after several Fed officials signaled a possible rate hike this year. Fed funds futures indicate the central bank could raise rates as soon as October now.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 500 points on Wednesday, giving up a gain on the day from before the Fed decision.

Warsh’s Wednesday debut also offered a clear glimpse into how the “regime change” he’s promised for the central bank will look. He significantly pared down the closely followed Fed meeting statement and announced task forces focused on overhauling the central bank’s operations.

“Investors will ultimately need to stay tuned to see what the task forces deliver, but one thing is clear now,” said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. “A new chapter at the Fed has begun.”

Warsh experiences worst 'Fed day' S&P 500 performance for a new chair since 1994

Warsh’s ‘Price Stability’ Nod Has Street Seeing a Hike

June 17, 2026 at 10:47 PM GMT+1

“Price stability.” Those words were among the first public remarks of the new Fed chair as the central bank predictably did nothing to interest rates on Wednesday. Fed policymakers were nevertheless split over whether they expect to raise them this year. Their new projections indicate nine officials foresee at least one hike, with six anticipating at least two. Another nine expected no move or a cut. Warsh, recently selected by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell as chair, declined to submit a forecast.

Wall Street traders read the tea leaves and decided to sell. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as the yield on two-year Treasuries climbed 16 basis points to 4.21%. The dollar advanced. Here’s your markets wrap. —David E. Rovella

Fed’s Warsh Nods to ‘Price Stability’: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Here are the five big takeaways from Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman

Published Wed, Jun 17 2026 4:42 PM EDT

The Federal Reserve and Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday followed the script on interest rates closely, voting to keep the benchmark level steady, but dropped several surprises that kept markets guessing about where things are heading. Markets didn’t like it, with major averages swooning after the meeting and as Warsh spoke in his news conference.

Here are the five biggest takeaways:

1. No rate changes, but the hawks are circling: There were no apparent dissents to keep the federal funds rate targeted between 3.5%-3.75%. However, the “dot plot” of expectations further out showed an inclination towards a hike later this year. The Federal Open Market Committee split 9-9 between those expecting steady rates or one cut and those seeing at least one hike, with the median “dot” pointing to a quarter percentage point increase.
2. The dot mystery solved: There was rampant speculation heading into the meeting that Warsh wouldn’t be submitting a dot, and he confirmed that he did not. In the past, the chairman has expressed a disdain for all such “forward guidance” as hamstringing future policy. “It’s been the practice of this committee for participants to submit these projections, and I have encouraged my colleagues to continue to do so. I, however, have refrained from offering any projections of my own consistent with my long-held views on the SEP, at least as currently structured,” he said.
3. Regime change via task force: Warsh has been promising to shake things up at the Fed, and his first steps in doing so came through the announced formation of five task forces. They are charged with studying communication, the Fed’s balance sheet, the data sources on which it relies, productivity and jobs, the impact of artificial intelligence and other transformative technologies, and the central bank’s inflation approach.
4. Tough on inflation: On about a dozen occasions, Warsh used the term “price stability.” For a chairman who had opined often about cutting rates, it was surprisingly hawkish talk about his and the committee’s “unambiguous and unanimous” resolve to get inflation under control. Markets responded in kind, with the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield soaring by 14.4 basis points.
5. Brevity is the soul of wit, and monetary policy: Warsh also promised to revamp communications, and the first visible step was a dramatically abridged post-meeting statement. Prior to the new chairman’s arrival, the statements generally ran in excess of 300 words, consisting of boiler plate language that investors parsed through closely. This time: The statement ran just 130 words, short and sweet with little ambiguity.

More

Here are the five big takeaways from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman

In oil news.

From supply shock to oil glut: IEA flags scale of demand destruction caused by Iran war

Published Wed, Jun 17 2026 4:39 AM EDT

The oil supply shock caused by the Iran war has eroded global demand for crude — but a lasting resolution to the conflict could drive a surge in supply volumes and trigger a major oil overhang next year, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA slashed its 2026 demand outlook to 1.1 million barrels a day year-over-year in 2026. That’s a 700,000-barrel-per-day downgrade from last month’s estimate, after deliveries plunged by 5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the IEA said.

Global supply, meanwhile, slumped to 94.5 million barrels a day in May, down 600,000 barrels a day month-on-month. That dragged output to 13.6 mb/d, well below pre-war levels.

The IEA said global supply is now expected to drop by 3.9 mb/d year-on-year in 2026 to 102.4 mb/d, before rebounding strongly to 110.3 mb/d next year.

The drop in demand reflects the combined pressure of elevated fuel prices and shortages of refined products, the agency noted, underscoring how the conflict has moved beyond a straightforward supply shock.

‘Significant overhang’

However, the IEA said supply is expected to surge by around 8 million barrels per day to roughly 110 mb/d, heavily outweighing a modest recovery in global oil demand of 2 million barrels per day to 105.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

“Our first look at 2027 balances shows a significant overhang emerging next year,” the IEA said.

The report comes as investors weigh how the agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the Middle East conflict, and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, will impact energy markets.

----“If the deal holds, exports and production from the Gulf should see a gradual recovery — not least because Iranian oil exports can fully resume once the U.S. blockade is lifted,” the IEA wrote.

Supply normalization could take months

The report’s authors noted how shipments through the Strait rebounded sharply earlier this month, supported by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, which have helped boost total flows from a May low of 9.6 mb/d to around 12 mb/d.

More

Oil glut may follow Iran war, says IEA, amid demand destruction

In other news, spook world at work for you themselves?

As the G-7 exit Evian, a reminder of an earlier disgraceful conference that left Europe’s Jews to be murdered by Hitler.

A $40 Million Gold Heist Risks Exposing CIA’s Top-Secret Spy Programs

Veterans of the agency worry the case will compromise legitimate, highly classified operations against American adversaries

June 16, 2026 11:45 am ET

Five decades ago, four burglars broke into a billionaire’s safe, setting off a chain of events that exposed and foiled one of the CIA’s most ambitious operations against the Soviets.

Now, Central Intelligence Agency veterans are worried that another seemingly brazen heist—this time allegedly committed by a CIA official—could expose another top-secret program, after authorities say the official walked out of his office with $40 million in gold bars.

The CIA’s David Rush, arrested in May on charges of theft of public money, was a senior supervisor in the agency’s science and technology division. That unit designs the spycraft tools agents use to intercept conversations, procure clandestine photographs and communicate. Rush hasn’t been indicted or publicly responded to the charges in court.

He operated a highly classified intelligence program approved by Congress several years ago to use large quantities of cash to obtain critical information about American adversaries, according to people familiar with the matter, and held a rank that is the CIA’s equivalent of an army general. 

The case has shone a spotlight on the way the agency conducts its business, and some former CIA officials said details of the legitimate clandestine operations he ran would inevitably surface. The case echoes the circumstances surrounding a 1974 case of a robbery at eccentric aerospace businessman Howard Hughes’ office, which ended up revealing a CIA effort to recover a Soviet nuclear-armed submarine.

“You could start to see things exposed that shouldn’t be discussed, things that are real and truly sensitive,” said Mark Fowler, a former senior CIA officer who ran spying operations against Iran.  

The Federal Bureau of Investigation began looking into Rush, authorities said, after the CIA referred allegations that he had filed false time cards. He had allegedly requested pay for time as a deployed Navy reservist, when in reality he had left the military a decade earlier, authorities said.

Investigators later discovered that, separate from the real national security project Rush was operating, he appears to have created a fake classified program, known as a special access program, people familiar with the matter said. The fake program was supposedly related to the continuity of government operations, the people said, which generally allow Washington to continue functioning in case of a catastrophic emergency.

Rush allegedly conducted a fake briefing with two co-workers on the supposed program, which he claimed was run jointly with the Pentagon. He convinced one of them that it required tens of millions of dollars in funding through a contract; that money was then transferred to a military contractor who provided the bars, the people said.

Investigators learned that the gold he had fraudulently obtained through the fake program was no longer in secure storage, the people said. In May, an FBI search of Rush’s Virginia home uncovered more than 600 pounds of gold bars together with more than $2 million in cash and dozens of Rolexes and other luxury watches.

The exquisite security precautions of such special access programs, also known as black programs, helped enable the scam, the people said. Since the two who were read-on to the program weren’t permitted to discuss it with other employees or supervisors, Rush appeared to have been able to move more than 300 two-pound gold bars to his home before anyone noticed.

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A $40 Million Gold Heist Risks Exposing CIA’s Top-Secret Spy Programs - WSJ

Évian Conference

The Évian Conference was convened 6–15 July 1938 at Évian-les-Bains, France, to address the problem of German and Austrian Jewish refugees wishing to flee persecution by Nazi Germany. It was the initiative of United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt who perhaps hoped to obtain commitments from some of the invited nations to accept more refugees, although he took pains to avoid stating that objective expressly. Historians have suggested that Roosevelt desired to deflect attention and criticism from American policy that severely limited the quota of refugees admitted to the United States.^[1]

The conference was attended by representatives from 32 countries, and 24 voluntary organizations also attended as observers, presenting plans either orally or in writing.^[2] Golda Meir, the attendee from British Mandatory Palestine, was not permitted to speak or to participate in the proceedings except as an observer. Some 200 international journalists gathered at Évian to observe and report on the meeting. The Soviet Union refused to take part in the conference, though direct talks on resettlement of Jews and Slavs between German and Soviet governments proceeded at the time of the conference and after it. In the end, the Soviet Union refused to accept refugees and a year later ordered its border guards to treat all refugees attempting to cross into Soviet territory as spies.^[3]

The conference was ultimately doomed, as aside from the Dominican Republic and later Costa Rica, delegations from the 32 participating nations failed to come to any agreement about accepting Jewish refugees fleeing the Third Reich. The conference thus inadvertently proved to be a useful tool for Nazi propaganda.^[4] Adolf Hitler responded to the news of the conference by saying that if other nations agreed to take the Jews, he would help them leave.^[5]

More

Évian Conference - Wikipedia

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

UK inflation unexpectedly stays at 2.8% with higher transport costs offset by slower food price rises – business live

17 June 2026

Food prices rose at the slowest rate since December 2024 with declines in inflation for meat, cheese, vegetables and cheese.

Economists predict UK inflation peak below 4%

Economists reckon UK inflation will peak below 4% in the coming months.

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, expects a return to interest rate cuts next year.

“What’s striking about these latest figures is just how benign food inflation is right now,” he said.

It’s a key reason why headline CPI unexpectedly stayed at 2.8%, despite upward pressure from air fares and a quirk related to road tax. Food prices fell in May relative to April, a trend we’ve also seen in the eurozone and Eastern Europe. If anything, the latest producer price data suggests food inflation will continue to fall sharply over the next couple of months. That will gradually change, but it’s a reminder that the energy price spike is unlikely to reach its peak impact on food inflation until the first quarter of next year.

In general, it’s too early to see much impact from the Middle East crisis beyond fuel prices. Services inflation is bouncing around, partly due to the timing of Easter this year, but the Bank of England’s preferred gauge of “core services” – which excludes volatile and indexed categories – has been more stable just below 4%. The BoE’s own “Decision Maker Panel” of CFOs points to services inflation staying around current levels through the summer.

We’re still sceptical that the Middle East crisis will generate the widespread “second round” effects that policymakers fear. Evidence from twelve months ago, when a National Insurance (payroll tax) and minimum wage hike failed to do much to the inflation picture, suggests corporate pricing power is considerably weaker than it was during the last energy shock four years ago.

More

UK inflation unexpectedly stays at 2.8% with higher transport costs offset by slower food price rises – business live

The world economy will never be the same

Few corners of the world economy have been left untouched by the past four months of war.

June 17, 2026

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East energy exports dried up practically overnight. Oil and gas prices exploded. Inflation surged.

The economic fallout has taken the form of energy rations in Asia, fertilizer shortages in Africa and grounded planes in Europe. It has affected politics, too. President Trump is not the only leader whose ratings have fallen as voters despair about the cost of living.

The huge toll of this war is one of the main reasons Trump has been so eager to end it. It’s also one reason to think the current deal could lead to long-term peace: Many are desperate for this to be over.

But bringing a global economy back online after it has been operating at reduced speed for months is not going to be easy — or fast. As my colleague Patricia Cohen writes, expect the economy to be “kicked onto a path of lower growth and higher prices” for some time to come.

Trust and logistics

When the preliminary agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the U.S. blockade was announced, the relief in markets was immediate. Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since early March.

But as my colleague Rebecca Elliott writes, getting substantial amounts of oil and gas actually flowing again will take a lot longer.

In the best of times, it can take weeks or months to get oil and gas from wells in the Middle East to buyers in China or Japan, and these are far from the best of times.

The strait is not yet open. There are concerns that it could be mined. When it does open, the first step will be getting out the hundreds of stranded vessels. That process alone could take weeks, U.S. officials say.

The next step — firing up oil wells, refineries and other infrastructure that have been idle for months — is another difficult task. Fixing any infrastructure that was damaged in the war will take even more time, and money.

For any of this to happen, energy producers in the Gulf need to trust that the U.S.-Iranian deal will last. The best-case scenario for finding a new equilibrium, Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, told Rebecca, is six to 12 months.

But restarting energy shipping isn’t just about getting trapped ships out through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s also about persuading shipping companies to come back in — and shipping executives are perhaps even more uneasy than energy executives. One told my colleague Jenny Gross it would take weeks or even months for him to feel comfortable sending ships into the Persian Gulf again.

A new global economy

If the U.S. and Iran eventually reach an agreement that enough parties have faith in, there’s a good chance that energy infrastructure in the Middle East will eventually be rebuilt and that shipping will eventually rebound.

But the war has altered the global economic order in ways that already look permanent, or at least enduring.

The cost of shipping may have permanently gone up. Iran wants to impose fees on ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Patricia wrote. And the fact that it has demonstrated its power to disrupt shipping raises insurance costs.

The energy shock of the past four months is also “supercharging the hunt for alternatives” to Middle East oil and gas, as Patricia put it. A push toward renewables looks likely to benefit China, the world leader in producing wind turbines, batteries and solar panels. Russia, the second-largest producer of crude oil and gas after the U.S., has gotten a boost. And countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina and Guyana are all ramping up their oil production capacities.

The Gulf, a wealthy region that includes major global trade and financial hubs, may never be the same. Attacks on five-star hotels and airports have shaken its image as a beacon of stability in a volatile region.

More

The World: A long road to recovery

Japan May exports grow at fastest pace in over three years, beating estimates, as chip demand soars

Published Tue, Jun 16 2026 7:57 PM EDT

Japan’s exports in May grew at their fastest pace since November 2022, rising 17% year on year, driven by robust demand for cars and semiconductors.

Growth was higher than the 16.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and up from the 14.8% in April.

While export value rose, volumes barely shifted, recording just a 0.5% increase, signaling that much of the gains in value were likely due to price and foreign exchange-related impact as the yen stays weak.

The surge in exports was powered by a 17.9% year-on-year jump in shipments to China and a 12.5% surge in exports to the U.S. Beijing is Tokyo’s largest trading partner, while Washington is its second-largest.

Exports to the Middle East took a hit due to the U.S.-Iran war, falling 32%.

The country’s exports of semiconductors surged 61.2% in May from a year earlier in terms of value, powered by booming demand for artificial intelligence technology, while shipments of cars jumped 16.4%, according to the official data.

Exports remain one of Japan’s main economic drivers, with its economy growing 0.5% sequentially in the first quarter and at 1.8% on an annualized basis. However, this growth engine may soon slow, according to Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics.

Yamaguchi expects gains to ease gradually, saying that while robust tech-related demand amid the AI boom will be supportive in the near term, sluggish global growth overall will limit broader demand for Japanese goods, particularly non-AI capital goods.

Japan’s imports rose 12.5% year on year in May, the highest growth since January 2025, but missing Reuters poll estimates of 12.8%. Petroleum imports dropped 28.5% year on year, hit by the Middle East conflict.

The economic data comes after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate on Tuesday by 25 basis points to the highest in over 30 years at 1%, as the country sees rising inflation and as the yen stays weak.

A weak yen is likely to boost exports but also causes domestic worries by pushing up imported inflation and weakening purchasing power.

----The Reuters Tankan survey — which measures business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers and is closely watched by the central bank — climbed to +13 in June, the highest in three months, from +8 in May. The non-manufacturing index rose to +32. A positive figure indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists.

Japan May exports grow at fastest pace in over three years, beating estimates

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Phone sets on fire and 'scorches cabin' on BA flight from Heathrow

16 June 2026

A mobile phone caught fire and “scorched the cabin” aboard a British Airways flight bound for Las Vegas, according to authorities.

Flight 271 from London landed at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas at around 2.30pm local time on Monday after a crew member reported a mobile phone fire on board.

In audio obtained by CBS the pilot can be heard saying over the speakers that the inside of the cabin was scorched, but that sparks were under control.

No injuries were reported.

It is unclear how the fire started and what model the phone was.

A spokesperson for British Airways said that the flight “landed safely and customers disembarked normally.”

“The safety of our customers and crew is the highest priority,” they added.

An investigation has now been opened by the Federal Aviation Administration.

According to the FAA, incidents of electronic gadgets emitting smoke, catching fire, or generating extreme heat on flights have reached historically high levels, driven by the sheer volume of lithium-ion batteries carried by passengers.

The FAA verified 93 air incidents in 2025, up from the previous record of 89 incidents in 2024.

Since tracking began in 2006, the FAA has verified more than 670 individual events involving lithium batteries in cabins or cargo holds.

Phone sets on fire and 'scorches cabin' on BA flight from Heathrow

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)   

“The problem is not that people are taxed too little, the problem is that government spends too much.”

Ronald Reagan

Chairman Warsh’s Big Day. The G-7 Ends. Iran War, Who Won?

Baltic Dry Index. 2670 -0.50    Brent Crude 78.75

Spot Gold 4324                           Spot Silver 70.68

US 2 Year Yield 4.05 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 39.261 trillion

US GDP 32.220 trillion.

A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.

Ron Paul

06:30 Update. The race to be first, while the oil price is high?

Three Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade for first time in months as shipowners eye Hormuz in ‘wary disbelief’

Published Wed, Jun 17 2026 12:54 AM EDT Updated 34 Min Ago

At least three Iranian tankers carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil have exited the U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz in the first such outbound shipment in two months, as shipowners cautiously reposition ahead of a U.S.-Iran deal signing in Geneva on Friday.

Two supertankers named Diona and Hero 2 — both owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company and under U.S. sanctions — made it through the U.S. Navy blockade perimeter, carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, according to shipping data provided by Kpler.

A third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude exited the blockade line on Wednesday, according to Kpler.

“Their apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading tankers are also preparing to resume trading,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

The U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony to take place on Friday in Geneva. The pact, whose details have not been disclosed, is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iran’s oil sales.

Washington would allow Tehran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the agreement is signed this week, in exchange for Iran’s commitment to curb its nuclear program, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed before the war, has been effectively shut for the duration of the conflict. The U.S. Navy has blockaded Iranian ports and Iran, targeting vessels linked to nations it deemed adversaries, stranding hundreds of ships and disrupting global energy flows.

The prospect of a reopening prompted some shipowners — battered by months of surging freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums — to begin repositioning vessels toward Gulf ports in anticipation of a surge in restocking demand, while most are more cautious and continued to hold back.

“The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration,” said Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Insurers are holding firm on high war-risk premiums, demanding “solid evidence” that the waterway will remain safe, Lloyd’s analysts said. “While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality,” the analysts said in a client note on Tuesday.

More

Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade ahead of deal signing

It is newbie Fed Chairman Warsh’s Big Day. While most Fed “experts” expect the Fed to leave their key interest rate unchanged, how Chairman Warsh spins it, and his forward guidance will likely make or break Wall Street’s early opinion of Trump’s man leading the Fed.

In Iran war news, US media largely swings against Trump’s folly. How did the “Mouse that roared,” manage to corner Trump’s war on the global economy?

Is Trump already a “lame duck” president even before the November mid-term elections?  If so, what now for the next two and a half years?

Stock futures are higher as Wall Street gears up for Federal Reserve rate decision: Live updates

Updated Wed, Jun 17 2026 12:35 AM EDT

U.S. stock futures rose early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the central bank’s interest rate decision.

S&P 500 futures were 0.26% higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.52%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up just 41 points, or about 0.1%.

During the day’s regular session, the Dow climbed to new intraday and closing highs, ultimately gaining 328.64 points, or 0.64%. The blue-chip index crossed over 52,000 for the first time during the trading session, but ultimately closed a hair below the level. On the other hand, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 0.57% and 1.15%, respectively.

SpaceX shares continued their winning ways, closing up more than 4% in Tuesday’s session. Elon Musk’s space company is up almost 50% from its initial public offering price of $135 a share. The stock extended gains in after-hours trading, last up 2%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a new high, rising 0.91%, while the Topix gained 0.91%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.42% and the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.49%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was 0.58% higher. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index slipped 0.37%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was marginally higher.

The moves came after all three major averages rose on Monday, following an announcement from President Donald Trump that the U.S. and Iran had reached a potential deal to end the war. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that both sides have terminated their military operations, while an official signing ceremony will take place in Switzerland this Friday.

“I think we’re in pretty good shape here for a solid finish to the quarter, and then, as we go into the second half, color us constructive,” said Scott Chronert, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi Research, on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Tuesday afternoon.

The strategist said that he still expects leadership out of the artificial intelligence infrastructure cohort going into the second quarter reporting period. “With oil prices beginning to come off here as we get closer to an Iran conflict resolution, I think we can see the Fed moving to the sidelines,” he said.

“What this ultimately does is extend the broadening playbook, which has been underway for the past month or so, all of which gives us, in our view, a path higher as we go into the back half of the year,” Chronert said.

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting marks the first one with new Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm of the U.S. central bank. Investors are largely expecting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers anticipate that Warsh won’t submit a “dot” to the FOMC’s quarterly update of where individual officers expect rates to head from here.

CarMax and Jabil are set to report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell. Traders will also watch out for May’s retail and pending home sales readings.

Stock market today: Live updates

US and Iran Prepare to Sign Deal, Both Claim Victory

June 16, 2026 at 5:06 PM GMT+1

The Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have been the focus of this year’s G7 summit taking place in France. The text of the deal has not yet been published but it has been agreed it will be signed on Friday near Lucerne in Switzerland.

US President Donald Trump has framed the agreement with Iran as a victory, saying it will ensure Iran never develops a nuclear weapon without offering details. He said the US won’t fund the rebuilding of the country, while also holding open the door to American investments down the road.

The president described Hezbollah as a “pinprick” that risks derailing peace. He suggested Syria [TGKZPCKIUPUQ]should take on the militant Lebanese Shia group, while criticizing Israel for operations in Lebanon, saying “too many people are being killed.”

As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump wants it opened as quickly as possible, but discussions over how to clear Iranian mines from the waterway are complicated. The US is short of demining capabilities that it can deploy to the Middle East and so it needs the help of its allies. Europeans raised questions about what exactly was agreed to before committing to do that.

Ukraine was also a topic among leaders in the French Alps. Trump confirmed he met with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and called on Russia to strike a deal. — Caroline Alexander

Leaders Meeting in Evian for G7 Focused on Iran Deal, Hormuz Opening - Bloomberg

Trump Stages an Iran Retreat

The regime gets financial relief to reopen Hormuz and hold more nuclear talks.

Updated June 15, 2026 5:19 pm ET

President Trump is touting his latest cease-fire deal with Iran as peace in our time, but the world is more likely to see it as a strategic retreat short of achieving his war aims. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump is accepting Iran’s promises merely to negotiate over its nuclear program.

Most of the press has been hostile from the start, but we’ve supported the President’s Iran policy. We’ve done so because a nuclear Iran would be an existential threat, and because we want Presidents to succeed when they go to war.

Mr. Trump’s willingness to use military force when no one else would has set back Iran’s nuclear program, military and industrial base. The result isn’t “Obama deal 2.0” because, unlike in 2015, Iran’s key nuclear facilities are in rubble and its enrichment of uranium has been halted for the first time in 20 years. The media critics and Democrats who now savage the President would have stood by while a nuclear bomb became a fait accompli, as in North Korea.

But there’s no denying that Mr. Trump is retreating from his main goals as political pressure has built at home and finishing the job requires greater military risk. Despite Israel’s urging, he never authorized a mission to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. He never tried to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Those who say Mr. Trump had no alternative to this retreat ignore that the U.S. blockade was squeezing Iran more by the day, while Iran’s blockade was leaking. Mr. Trump simply didn’t want to endure higher oil prices for longer. This is his choice, not a strategic imperative.

The new deal extends the cease-fire for another 60 days, though our guess is that it will be renewed, perhaps many times. The U.S. blockade will end, as Iran de-mines the Strait on a timetable so traffic can be unrestricted. This seems to be Mr. Trump’s main goal, which will mean lower gasoline prices before the midterm elections. But Tehran says Hormuz won’t return to the status quo ante, and it claims it will charge “fees” not tolls, as if that’s more than a semantic difference.

The full memorandum of understanding text hasn’t been released, and Mr. Trump says some of it is “a little conceptual.” Which is the problem. It would defer most matters of the nuclear program to 60 more days of talks, with oil and other sanctions relief along the way in exchange for diplomatic progress.

This linkage is crucial, but pushing off the most difficult nuclear issues in talks with “dishonorable people” who don’t deal “in good faith,” as the President called them on Friday, doesn’t inspire confidence. If the regime won’t agree to dismantle its nuclear program now, why would it do so after weeks of oil exports and other relief?

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Trump Stages an Iran Retreat - WSJ

The Iran War Permanently Altered the Global Economy

The global order has been altered, and economies are unlikely to simply pick up where they left off before the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran.

June 16, 2026

The framework deal between the United States and Iran sets the stage for an end to the bursts of violence and debilitating disruption of energy deliveries and trade in the Persian Gulf. But don’t expect economies around the globe to simply pick up where they left off before the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28.

The war has set in motion changes that will be hard to reverse.

The global energy order is being reshaped.

The near shutdown in oil and gas deliveries from the Middle East and the leap in prices are causing a shift in power. Energy producers from the Gulf to the Americas are jockeying to maintain or increase their dominance, and customers are struggling to reduce their dependency and shore up their supply.

As a result, the energy market is changing, the energy mix is changing and the energy players are changing.

The profound vulnerability of countries throughout Asia, Europe and elsewhere that depend on imported energy is supercharging the hunt for alternatives. In some places, like South Korea and Japan, that has led to an increased use of dirtier fuels like coal.

But over the longer term, this energy shock — the second in just four years — is likely to accelerate a transition to renewables like solar and wind as well as nuclear power.

More, subscription required.

The Iran War Permanently Altered the Global Economy - The New York Times

Kevin Warsh’s Fed is not expected to make any change to rates for a while, according to CNBC Fed Survey

Published Tue, Jun 16 2026 7:05 AM EDT

Amid heightened anticipation, Kevin Warsh will head his first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman but is expected do very little, at least initially, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

The 32 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, as a group see no rate change at this meeting or any meeting through 2027. But 88% do expect the Fed at this week’s meeting to remove the easing bias in the statement that has signaled the Fed’s next move would likely be a cut.

Warsh comes in as the hand-picked nominee of a president who has been bullying the Fed for years for lower rates. But high inflation, spurred in part by the President Donald Trump’s tariffs and war with Iran, have taken those cuts off the table for now and pushed them out of the forecast horizon for the Fed Survey and the Fed Funds futures markets.

“While Warsh is generally perceived as dovish, he will inherit a committee that has become noticeably more hawkish,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. “Several policymakers have recently argued that rate hikes should remain an option if inflation remains above target, and concerns around energy-driven inflation pressures have only reinforced that bias.”

Warsh himself has said rates could be lower but has not said if his outlook has changed amid the recent surge in inflation and stronger jobs numbers. The announcement of a potential deal with Iran, which came after the survey was taken, could give Warsh flexibility to cut rates sooner than currently expected. As it is now, respondents don’t believe that high oil prices will lead the Fed to hike but see the funds rate basically unchanged from the current level of 3.62% through 2027.

On the plus side, the survey shows Warsh taking the helm of an economy that has been resilient to recent shocks and expected to remain that way. Forecasters nudged up their growth outlook, lowered the probability of recession from 33% in April to 25% and reduced their expectations for the unemployment rate.

Economist Hugh Johnson writes in: “Improving economic and employment conditions and modestly rising stock prices are common characteristics of the current stage of the stock market-economic-interest rate cycle. Early warning signs of a bull market-ending recession have not as yet surfaced.”

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Kevin Warsh's Fed is not expected to make any change to rates for a while, according to CNBC Fed Survey

In other news, how long will shipping remain disrupted?

Strait of Hormuz reopening won't end shipping risks

A proposed US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is raising hopes for global shipping and oil markets. But naval mines, high insurance costs and geopolitical risks mean disruption could persist for months.

15 June 2026

US President Donald Trump on Sunday hailed a framework agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending hostilities in the Gulf that have reduced commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle for more than three months.

The deal, scheduled to be signed on Friday in Switzerland, reopens the strait to shipping without tolls, lifts the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and allows Tehran to resume oil exports under limited sanctions relief.

The framework also extends the current ceasefire for at least 60 days while launching broader talks on Iran's nuclear program.

Yet, unlike reopening a highway after a car wreck, restoring prewar oil, gas and container traffic through this vital chokepoint faces significant hurdles.

Greek maritime risk management agency MARISKS warned in a research note on Monday that the framework agreement should be viewed as "the beginning of a de-escalation process rather than the immediate restoration of normal trading conditions."

When can Gulf shipping safely resume?

Assuming attacks from both the US and Iran have ended for good, Iran must first find and clear the naval mines it deployed during the conflict to make the waterway passable once again

Most could be located fairly quickly using minesweepers, underwater drones and sonar. But some mines may have drifted or be hard to find, say maritime experts.

Independent observers will then need to verify that the waterway is safe for shipping.

The process could take 40 to 50 days, according to maritime security sources cited by Reuters news agency on Monday.

Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, told Reuters that Hormuz transits right now would be "very risky" and called for "mine-free routes" to be established.

War-risk insurance is still a major hurdle

Even when the mines are cleared, shipping firms will be looking for much lower war-risk insurance costs for transiting Hormuz before confidence is restored.

Currently, premiums remain extremely high, at 1% to 4% of a vessel's value per transit, compared with prewar rates below 0.1%, according to a report in The New York Times. 

For a typical $200-million (€172-million) tanker, this has added between $2 million and $8 million per transit, compared with less than $200,000 before the war.

Shipping data and analysis company Lloyd's List on Monday cited an unnamed insurance underwriter based in Singapore who described premiums as "quick to go up, slow to go down."

Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, warned that shipowners would assess the pros and cons based on their own risk tolerance.

"The Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up," Singh told Bloomberg.

When can stranded ships start moving?

Once safe corridors in the strait have been established, hundreds of commercial vessels and their crews that have been stranded for months in the wider Gulf region can begin moving.

Bloomberg cited data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler that 300 fully loaded vessels are currently sitting in the Gulf, while a further 250 are empty and awaiting loading, once the strait reopens.

Nearby in the Gulf of Oman, a further 300 empty tankers are awaiting permission to enter the Gulf.

---- Damaged energy facilities and a return to normal

Gulf countries, meanwhile, can now begin to ramp up oil and gas production. But this requires safety inspections of energy facilities, repairs to any damaged infrastructure and the phased return of workers and maintenance crews.

A full restart will hinge on restoring shipment schedules, securing enough tankers and convincing international buyers that energy flows are reliable again.

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at UK-based Capital Economics, projected Monday that it would take until the end of September for around 80% of energy flows through Hormuz to resume.

Shearing warned that natural gas flows "will be slower to return," citing damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas hub — where attacks knocked out about 17% of the country's export capacity, likely for several years.

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Strait of Hormuz reopening won't end shipping risks

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Has Trump’s foolish war finally caught up with China?

China economy weakens further in May as retail sales post first drop in over three years

Published Mon, Jun 15 2026 10:08 PM EDT

China’s retail sales fell for the first time in more than three years in May while urban investment contracted more than expected, piling pressure on Beijing to roll out meaningful stimulus to spur consumption, even as de-escalation in Middle East tensions offers some near-term relief.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, declined in May for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. The Labor Day holiday at the start of May failed to offset sluggish consumer spending, with Beijing scaling back trade-in subsidies earlier this year.

The sales contraction was a surprise as economists polled by Reuters had estimated flat growth. Fu Linghui, the bureau’s spokesperson, highlighted retail sales in goods and services combined eked out a 2.8% jump over the five months.

China’s urban fixed-asset investment, including real estate and infrastructure, contracted 4.1% this year as of end-May from a year earlier, compared with the estimated 2% decline and steepening from the 1.6% drop in the first four months this year.

Real estate dragged on investment, with inflows falling 16.2% in the January-to-May period. Manufacturing fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since December 2020, Wind data showed, despite resilience in high-tech and policy-supported manufacturing. Investment in infrastructure grew 0.6% from a year earlier.

Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rising 4.5% in May to top estimates of 4.3% growth and rebounding from April’s near three-year low of 4.1%.

“The domestic imbalance between strong supply and weak demand is acute,” the statistics bureau said. “Some enterprises are facing considerable pressure in their operations,” the authority said, calling for development of new technology and greater employment support to achieve “an appropriate increase in economic output.”

The economy has shown signs of faltering following a strong first quarter. Growth slowed across the board in April, with industrial output and retail sales recording their weakest gains in years. In May, the official gauge on manufacturing activity slowed to 50, the threshold separating expansion from contraction.

During the extended holiday in early May, while boosting travel and dining activity, per capita spending lagged behind the same period in 2025, as consumers have grown more price-conscious.

“The weak retail sales data puts pressure on the government to consider policy measures to stabilize consumption,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, expecting the policy “fine-tuning” to come in July following the release of second-quarter GDP data.

The national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April.

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China economy weakens further in May as retail sales post first drop in over three years

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Interesting, but unlike a regular airplane, an E-plane doesn’t get lighter as the energy gets consumed. The take-off weight will also be the landing weight.

World’s first crewed solid-state flight electrifies aviation's future

June 12, 2026

On June 5, test pilot Miguel Iturmendi lifted off from Zephyrhills Municipal Airport in Florida at the controls of the Helios Horizon – the first crewed, fixed-wing aircraft ever to fly on solid-state batteries. The flight was neither spectacular in distance nor in duration – it was a series of short tests to validate the aircraft's weight and balance after the new batteries had been installed – but it didn't need to be to make history.

Electric aviation has always been held back by the same physics problem. Conventional lithium-ion batteries, the chemistry behind most electric cars, use a liquid electrolyte to move charge between electrodes. That liquid architecture stores too little energy per kilogram to make commercially useful flights realistic.

Solid-state batteries replace that liquid with solid materials, making cells more resistant to impact, puncture, and heat, dramatically reducing fire risk, and – most importantly – packing far more energy into the same weight.

The Helios Horizon's previous lithium-ion pack delivered 260 Wh/kg (watt-hours per kilogram, a measure of how much energy a battery holds relative to its weight). The new solid-state cells hit 410 Wh/kg, a 60% jump. Chief test pilot and company founder Miguel Iturmendi expects that figure to grow another 40% within two years.

Though the battery pack can be topped up over any AC outlet, no special infrastructure needed, fast-charging is also supported for up to 80% capacity in under 15 minutes. The aircraft also recovers energy in flight through wing-mounted solar panels and a regenerative system that spins the propeller as a wind turbine during glides and descents. "Regenerative flight can significantly extend the aircraft's range," Iturmendi said after the test flights.

The Helios Horizon itself started life as a Pipistrel Taurus motorized glider. Iturmendi's team added proprietary battery management, a custom propulsion stack, thermodynamic controls, and solar panel wing extensions. The aircraft already holds the world altitude record for electric planes in its weight class, having reached 24,000 ft (7,315 m). The next goal is 40,000 ft (12,192 m), commercial cruising altitude, in stratospheric flights planned for later this year.

The Helios Horizon isn't alone in chasing solid-state aviation, though it is ahead. Chinese eVTOL maker EHang has tested its two-seat EH216-S with lithium-metal solid-state cells developed alongside Inx Energy, logging a 48-minute continuous flight at 480 Wh/kg. Battery giant CATL has shown off its "condensed battery" technology at around 500 Wh/kg and says aeronautical testing is underway. Airbus and Renault also have a joint R&D agreement targeting roughly double current energy densities to enable hybrid and electric medium-haul aircraft by the 2030s.

Almost all of these programs remain at the demonstrator stage, far from regulatory certification. The Helios Horizon flight is the first real step across that line. If solid-state energy density keeps improving at the pace Iturmendi projects, the history it made earlier this month may just be the beginning.

First crewed solid-state flight may electrify aviation

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)   

Near the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.

Martin Zweig