Baltic Dry Index. 1593 +24 Brent Crude 93.79
Spot Gold 1923 US 2 Year Yield 5.10 -0.02
The Battle of Stamford Bridge (Old English: Gefeoht æt Stanfordbrycge)
took place at the village of Stamford Bridge, East Riding of Yorkshire, in England, on 25 September 1066, between an English army under King Harold Godwinson and an invading Norwegian force led
by King Harald Hardrada and the English king's
brother Tostig Godwinson. After a bloody battle, both Hardrada
and Tostig, along with most of the Norwegians, were killed.
Battle of Stamford Bridge - Wikipedia
It is the final trading week of the month and quarter, normally a time to dress up stocks and the stock casino indexes for the all important professional money manager bonuses, but this week, as the Wall Street Journal frets, that looks like requiring a miracle!
Still, on the better news front, the Hollywood writers strike looks to be over, though that anyone outside of the recently impoverished striking writers will notice or care, is debatable. I suspect coming soon to most production companies in Hollywood, a “team” of two or three “writers” plus an AI leftist computer and a technician.
China’s Evergrande hits a snag, as China heads
towards the Golden Week holiday.
Asia markets
mixed as investors look to inflation data across the region
UPDATED SUN, SEP 24 2023 9:51 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets are mixed as investors look toward inflation data from across the
region this week.
Singapore and
Australia are expected to report inflation figures for August this week, while
Japan will release inflation data for the Tokyo region. The capital region’s
inflation data is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
In Australia, futures for the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.29% to start the week.
In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
0.66% and the Topix is up 0.45%, rebounding from losses last week.
South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.28%
and the Kosdaq 1.34% lower, extending losses from the week before.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
0.65%, with mainland Chinese markets also in negative territory. The benchmark
CSI 300 was down 0.33%.
On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes
notched a
fourth straight day of losses as investors continued to grapple
with signals from the Federal Reserve that it intended to keep
interest rates higher for longer, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite notching
their worst weeks since March.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid
0.31%, while the S&P
500 shed 0.23% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.09%.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European markets set to start the week in
negative territory
UPDATED MON, SEP 25 2023 12:34 AM
EDT
European markets are heading for a lower open
Monday as investors reflect on a spate of central bank decisions last week and
the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates.
U.S.
stock futures edged higher in overnight trading Sunday as the
market is set to enter the last week of trading in September with big losses.
Stocks stateside have struggled this month as the
Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer,
sending bond yields rising.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed overnight as investors looked ahead to
inflation data from across the region. Singapore and Australia are expected to
report inflation figures for August this week, while Japan will release
inflation data for the Tokyo region, which is seen as an indicator of
nationwide trends.
European
markets live updates: stock moves, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Wall
Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead
Sep. 24, 2023 7:30 AM ET
Inflation trends will
again be the key focus of investors next week, with the U.S. PCE inflation
reading and flash CPI reports from Europe due to be released. Other economic
reports of interest include updates on durable goods, consumer confidence, new
home sales, and the advanced goods trade balance. Analysts think the overall
balance of data releases could confirm a cooling economy. Core PCE inflation,
also known informally as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is forecast to be
up 0.2% month-over-month to push the year-over-year rate down to 3.8%.
More
Wall
Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha
U.S. Economy Could Withstand One Shock, but Four at
Once?
A
year of surprisingly strong growth is about to be tested by a strike, the
possibility of a government shutdown, student loans and oil prices
Sept. 24, 2023 5:30 am ET
The U.S. economy has sailed through some rough currents this year but now faces a convergence of hazards that threaten to create more turbulence.
Among the possible challenges
this fall: a broader
auto workers strike, a lengthy government
shutdown, the resumption of student
loan payments and rising
oil prices.
Each on its own wouldn’t do too
much harm. Together, they could be more damaging, particularly when the economy
is already cooling due to high
interest rates.
“It’s that quadruple threat of
all elements that could disrupt economic activity,” said Gregory Daco,
chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
Many analysts expect slower economic growth this fall
but not a recession. Daco forecasts economic growth to slow sharply to a 0.6%
annual rate in the fourth quarter from an expected 3.5% gain during the current
quarter. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect growth to cool to a 1.3% rate next
quarter, from a 3.1% gain in the third.
So far in 2023, robust consumer spending and historically low
unemployment have supported solid
U.S. economic activity, despite the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates
to the highest
level in 22 years to fight inflation by slowing growth. Growth in
Europe and China,
meanwhile, has slowed sharply.
One economic threat is a wider and more prolonged
strike by the United
Auto Workers against three Detroit automakers. Nearly 13,000 workers
began striking three plants on Sept. 15. And UAW President Shawn
Fain said Friday the strikes would expand to 38 General Motors and Stellantis parts-distribution
centers across 20 states.
The initial impact of the limited strike is expected to be modest,
but a broader work stoppage could curb auto production and drive up vehicle
prices. Workers at auto-parts suppliers could also lose their jobs.
----The next bump could be a partial government
shutdown. Congress has until the end of September to agree to fund the
government. For now, lawmakers
are far apart.
If they can’t reach a deal, all but the government’s most essential
workers would be furloughed, perhaps as many as 800,000 nationwide. Those
workers would likely spend less during the shutdown and the government would
temporarily buy fewer goods and services.
----Another bump will be the resumption of federal student loan payments
Oct. 1. The restart could divert roughly $100 billion from Americans’ pockets over the coming year, according to an
estimate from Wells Fargo economist Tim Quinlan.
That would be the first time many borrowers make
payments since March 2020, when the Education Department paused them to help
cushion the financial effects of Covid-19. That freed people up to spend the
money on other things as the economy rebounded, helping prop up growth.
Monthly payments for the tens of millions of student-loan borrowers
affected average between $200 and $300 per person. Even though they make up a relatively
small slice of $18 trillion in annual U.S. consumer spending, they are still a
worry to Walmart,
Target and other
large retailers.
Higher gasoline prices add to that pressure. Brent crude oil prices
have hovered above $90 a barrel for the past few days, up from just above $70
this summer. Gasoline prices surged 10.6% in August from the prior month, the
largest one-month increase since June 2022, according to Labor Department data.
More
U.S.
Economy Could Withstand One Shock, but Four at Once? - WSJ
Hollywood writers
and studios reach tentative deal to end strike after nearly 150 days
Hollywood’s writers
and studios have a preliminary labor agreement.
Talks between the
Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television
Producers resumed last week after months of starts and stops, ultimately
leading to a tentative deal that would end the ongoing writers strike.
The WGA and AMPTP are
still drafting the final contract language.
---- The WGA did not disclose what provisions ultimately made
it into the preliminary contract, but told union members that “this deal is
exceptional – with meaningful gains and protections for writers in every sector
of the membership.”
Once the WGA and
AMPTP agree on the language within the contract, the negotiating committee will
vote on whether to recommend the agreement and send it to the WGAW Board and
WGAE Council for approval. Then, the board and council will vote on whether to
authorize a contract ratification vote by membership.
WGA leadership noted
that the strike is not over and no members of the guild are to return to work
until that agreement is officially ratified. Members were encouraged to
continue standing in solidarity with striking actors on the picket lines.
More
Hollywood
writers and studios reach tentative deal to end strike after nearly 150 days
(cnbc.com)
In other news, China’s property sector rescue hits a problem.
Evergrande's debt
revamp roadblock hits China property investors' sentiment
September 25,
20234:26 AM GMT+1
HONG KONG, Sept
25 (Reuters) - China Evergrande Group's latest trouble in firming up a
long-pending debt restructuring plan led to a sell-off in its and peers' shares
on Monday, as worries resurfaced about the crisis-hit property sector after a
brief respite.
Evergrande, the
world's most indebted property developer, which has become the poster child of
China's property crisis, has been working to get its creditors' approval for a
debt restructuring plan after having defaulted in 2021.
Under
the plan unveiled in March this year, Evergrande (3333.HK) proposed
options to offshore creditors including swapping their current debt
holdings into new notes with maturities of 10 to 12 years.
In an unexpected
development, the embattled developer said late on Sunday it was unable to issue
new debt due to an ongoing investigation into its main domestic subsidiary,
Hengda Real Estate Group Co Ltd.
Hengda said last
month it was being investigated by China's securities regulator for suspected
violation over the disclosure of information.
Shares
in Evergrande plunged as much as 24% on Monday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng
mainland property sector index (.HSMPI) was
trading 3.7% lower.
"Its debt
restructuring plan is now stuck and can't go any further," said Steven
Leung, sales director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. "Other options, such
as converting the debt into shares of other listed units, are also seen not
workable now."
Evergrande's
offshore debt restructuring involves a total of $31.7 billion, which includes
bonds, collateral and repurchase obligations, potentially making it one of the
world's biggest such exercises.
The
developer's latest woes reverse a brief respite for the Chinese property
sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the economy, on the back of
Beijing's support measures and two other major developers forged
debt deals with their creditors.
More
Evergrande's debt revamp roadblock hits China property investors' sentiment | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Alarm
bells ring through EU as Sweden's 'problematic' debt unmasked in new report
September 23. 2023
Sweden
may be seen by some as paradise on Earth, especially since its people are amongst the happiest people on Earth, but the reality of
things reveals more than meets the eye.
A
recent report by Statista reveals that Sweden is actually one of the
most debt-riddled countries in the world - and that it's third only behind the
Netherlands and Denmark. Loans, mortgages, and credit card debt are crippling the
Swedes into a life of near indentured servitude, and according to one marketing
expert, it's become quite the problem.
"That
Swedes' debt is the third highest in Europe is is problematic," said
Pontus Wiss of Likvidum,
which aims to help Swedes get out of debt.
"We
must navigate these financial waters carefully to ensure a sustainable future
for generations to come."
The debt was
measured relative to the average Swedish income, and it was determined that the
average resident of Sweden has a debt-to-income ratio of 180 percent.
That means
that for every $1 a Swedish person makes, they owe $1.80 back to their lenders
- and personal loans are the biggest culprit.
"It is
imperative for banks and lenders in Sweden to prioritize responsible lending in
our marketing and communication regarding private loans," said Wiss.
Interestingly,
however, Solvenia, Hungary, and Poland have the least amount of debt-to-income
ratio.
Wiss is joining
the chorus of brokers who have demanded that the Swedish government do its part
to counter-act over-indebtedness.
He says that
the laws in Sweden, as they exist now, are designed to be predatory in nature,
and he wants that to change
"The
Swedish government has put forward a proposal for a debt and credit register to
counteract risky lending and over-indebtedness," he said. "We at
Likvidum as loan brokers welcome such measures to strengthen consumer
protection."
Alarm bells ring through EU as Sweden's 'problematic'
debt unmasked in new report (msn.com)
AI Fantasy Fades as Wall Street Reels From Real-World
Rate Jump
Fri, September 22, 2023 at
9:31 PM GMT+1
(Bloomberg) -- For stock investors for much of this year, the trillion-dollar AI promise has masked a big threat in this era of Federal Reserve hawkishness: Real-world borrowing costs have jumped across Corporate America.
Now Wall Street is fretting over the
monetary danger in a week that Jerome Powell signaled his resolve once again to
keep the policy stance tight — sparking a rout across Big Tech and beyond.
His tool of choice to cool the
still-hot US economy: Ensuring interest rates adjusted for inflation — seen as
true cost of money for borrowers — stay elevated. Real yields, which touched
decade-highs this week, need to stay meaningfully positive “for some time,” the
Fed chief said at the policy gathering.
It’s a chilling message for the
top-heavy US equity market. Double-digit gains this year have been fueled by
optimism that nascent technologies such as artificial intelligence will unlock
a new wave of growth for technology companies, justifying the sector’s
eye-watering valuations. Yet skepticism is setting in as the cost of capital
climbs, threatening to pressure companies big and small.
“A higher cost of capital is
detrimental to equity valuations,” said Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of
equity strategies at Research Affiliates. “That said, big tech are unique
companies with low leverage, fat cash flows, and wide economic moats, and these
characteristics justify higher than average valuations. But at some point, the
absolute and relative valuation can’t be stretched more, and we may be
approaching that point for several tech names.”
The
prospect of higher rates hit assets across the board. Homebuilders fell for the
seventh time in eight weeks as a group, while a basket of unprofitable
technology firms tumbled with echoes of the market turmoil in March. No wonder:
Benchmark 10-year real rates climbed as high as 2.12% intraday on Thursday, the
highest level since 2009.
----Sustainably high real rates serve to tightening financial
conditions — an oft-stated goal of the Fed chair. More expensive funding costs
increase the cost of doing business and put pressure on the likes of tech
shares because their long-term earnings prospects now have to be discounted at
higher rates. At the same time assets that lack income streams like
cryptocurrencies look less appealing given the opportunity costs to hold them
compared to a Treasury bond that pays out a real return.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has dropped
more than 5% so far in September, on track for a back-to-back loss and its
worst monthly showing of 2023 as high-flyers such as Tesla Inc. and Microsoft
Inc. stumble. Even with the hosing, the index is trading at more than 31 times
annual earnings — lower than the halcyon days of 2021, but higher than almost
any point in the past decade.
More
AI Fantasy Fades as Wall Street Reels From Real-World Rate Jump (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Pfizer-Funded
Study Shows Poor Effectiveness for COVID-19 Vaccine in Young Children
Three doses of the Pfizer vaccine provided little protection
against emergency room visits, urgent care encounters, or outpatient visits.
9/21/2023 Updated: 9/22/2023
A new study funded by Pfizer
found the company's COVID-19 vaccine did not perform well in children under 5.
Children aged 6 months to 4 years
are supposed to receive three shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The number
was increased from two when early testing showed little effectiveness.
Three doses of the Pfizer
vaccine provided little protection against emergency room visits, urgent care
encounters, or outpatient visits, according to the new study.
Pfizer-funded researchers
analyzed records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. They included
patients who tested for COVID-19 at an emergency department, urgent care, or
outpatient setting, along with being diagnosed with acute respiratory
infection. The date range was July 23, 2022, through May 19, 2023.
Positive cases were those with
a positive test result. Controls tested negative and had no evidence of prior
infection in the past 90 days. Children were only counted as vaccinated if they
received a second or third shot two or more weeks before being exposed to
COVID-19. Children were excluded if they only received one dose, received any
doses from a different company, or did not follow the recommended dosing
schedule.
After adjusting for factors
such as age and sex, researchers estimated just 12 percent effectiveness
against medically-attended encounters for children who completed the three-dose
primary series.
Confidence intervals
crossed well over one, indicating that the effectiveness might actually be
worse or even negative.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Space-Based
Solar Power Could Become A Reality
There’s been story after story about the potential
for space-based solar power this year, as the ambitious energy plan gains the
backing of prominent figures, tech companies and academic institutions. What
seemed a pipedream just a few years ago now appears increasingly viable as the
rise in investments in green technologies expands the potential for innovative clean
energy projects immensely.
Solar energy generation from space
is expected to work by using solar panel-equipped, energy-transmitting
satellites to collect high-intensity, uninterrupted solar radiation. Using
giant mirrors, solar rays could be reflected onto smaller solar collectors
before being wirelessly beamed to Earth in the form of either a
microwave or laser beam.
In May, a public-private Japanese partnership
announced plans to run a trial of a solar farm in space as early as 2025. The
industry-government-academia project led by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry is supported by researchers at Kyoto University. This is just one of
several groups worldwide with ambitious plans to generate solar power this way.
An increasing number of companies have been testing new technologies to see if
solar power converted into microwaves can be beamed to receiving stations on
Earth. If successful, this would mark a huge breakthrough in renewable energy
as we could harness the power of the sun, day and night, irrespective of
weather conditions.
However, achieving this will be no
easy feat. One of the biggest hurdles is the extremely high costs involved with
setting up a solar space project. Installing giant solar panels, big enough to
generate 1 GW of electricity, could cost over $7.2 billion. Despite the high cost,
researchers in Japan are growing increasingly optimistic about the viability of
the project, particularly since the Japanese group already carried out successful tests of microwave power transmission
horizontally in 2015 and vertically in 2018. Naoki Shinohara, the scientist
leading the experiments, stated “If we can demonstrate our technology ahead
of the rest of the world, it will also be a bargaining tool for space
development with other countries.”
But Japan is not
the only country making progress in space-based solar power, as the U.K. also
invests heavily in new projects. In June, it was announced that a group of U.K.
universities and tech companies were to receive government funding of almost
$5.3 million to develop space-based solar power. One of the recipients is Cambridge University, which
is developing ultra-lightweight solar panels that can withstand the high
radiation levels in space. Meanwhile, Queen Mary University of London is
developing a wireless system to safely beam the solar power to Earth.
More
Space-Based Solar Power Could Become A Reality |
OilPrice.com
Glory is fleeting, but
obscurity is forever.
Napoleon Bonaparte,
French Emperor.
