US Inflation Day. Gulf War Depression Ahead.

Baltic Dry Index. 3001 +23     Brent Crude 104.82

Spot Gold  4729                           Spot Silver 86.72

US 2 Year Yield 3.95 +0.05

US Federal Debt. 39.231 trillion

US GDP 32.111 trillion.

GammaRoad Capital Partners’ CIO Jordan Rizzuto describes as a “show me” market, one in which investors are increasingly unwilling to react to risks unless they materially disrupt economic or corporate fundamentals.

After weathering the pandemic, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes and tariff fears in recent years, investors have become conditioned to buy market weakness rather than retreat from it, he wrote in a note Tuesday.

In the global stock casinos, the greatest disconnect from reality ever. All news is good news! AI forever!!

Dinosaur Graeme doesn’t see it like that. Unless some sanity returns in the District of Crooks and fast, Dinosaur Graeme sees a massively disrupted global supply economy headed into depression no later than 2027. There is simply no sign of sanity returning in the District of Crooks. That’s depression not recession!

My depression prediction of 2027 might be off by as much as six months.

In the USA real pain might hit as early as the Memorial Day holiday, Monday May 25^th, though I think it will hit more severely on the July 4^th Independence Day holiday.

In Asia, the great Trump global supply chain disruption is already hitting daily.  I think it will start hitting in Europe sometime next month.

If I’m even halfway correct in my assessment of what comes next, stocks are heading for a 1929 type of crash. Bonds will probably be the big winner, although at some point physical gold and silver will make a big asset comeback in the global financial economy.

Asia markets trade mixed as investors weigh Trump’s ceasefire warning

Published Mon, May 11 2026 7:41 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors shrugged off fresh doubts over the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire after President Donald Trump warned the truce was on “massive life support.”

Trump on Monday cast doubt on the survival of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, saying the fragile truce was effectively “on life support” after Tehran delivered what he described as an unacceptable response to Washington’s proposal for ending the conflict.

“I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living,’” he said.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.19%, while the Topix rose 0.27%. South Korea’s Kospi gave up earlier gains to fall over 3% after notching a fresh record high on Monday. The small-cap Kosdaq fell over 4%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.82%.

Yields of Japan’s 10-year government bond hit their highest point since 1997, rising to a high of 2.545% after minutes from the Bank of Japan revealed that some board members said that the BOJ should raise rates soon

Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 0.47% while the CSI 300 opened flat.

Despite mounting geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and lingering inflation concerns, global equities have continued to push higher, underscoring what GammaRoad Capital Partners’ CIO Jordan Rizzuto describes as a “show me” market, one in which investors are increasingly unwilling to react to risks unless they materially disrupt economic or corporate fundamentals.

After weathering the pandemic, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes and tariff fears in recent years, investors have become conditioned to buy market weakness rather than retreat from it, he wrote in a note Tuesday.

Rizzuto added that structural factors are also reinforcing the rally, including retail flows into leveraged exchange-traded funds and call options. This has prompted dealers to buy underlying equities as hedges, leading to the rapid expansion of buffer funds and hedged equity strategies that provide additional downside protection.

In the U.S., S&P 500 futures were marginally higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 24 points, or less than 0.1%.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 rose, bolstered by key tech stocks even as oil prices rose after Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.

The broad market index gained 0.19% and closed at 7,412.84, while the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.1% to end at 26,274.13. Both indexes hit fresh all-time intraday highs during the session, and they closed at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 95.31 points, or 0.19%, to 49,704.47.

Asia markets: Kospi, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225

Stock futures slip as traders await inflation reading, monitor Iran war developments: Live updates

Updated Tue, May 12 2026 12:28 AM EDT

U.S. stock futures slipped early Tuesday as traders looked ahead to the release of April’s consumer price index reading.

S&P 500 futures were 0.16% lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.33%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were marginally lower.

During the day’s regular session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to fresh intraday and closing highs. The broad market index added 0.19%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq eked out a 0.1% gain. The Dow gained 95.31 points, or 0.19%.

Oil prices rose on Monday after President Donald Trump called the month-old ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran “unbelievably weak” and said it was “on massive life support” after rejecting an “unacceptable” counterproposal from Tehran to end the war. In its latest counteroffer, Iran has insisted on war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian assets and the need to lift sanctions.

On Tuesday morning, April’s consumer price index reading is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones are calling for headline inflation to have gained 3.7% from a year earlier. They anticipate April’s CPI will have grown 0.6% from the prior month.

A solid earnings season has continued to push stocks to new highs in recent sessions. Marci McGregor, head of portfolio strategy, chief investment office, at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday afternoon that she’s still feeling good about the markets overall.

“If we get weakness after this really strong recovery from the March lows, I would see it as a buying opportunity, because this is a market that is being fueled by corporate profits, by capex, and frankly by a strong labor market,” she said. “There’s a lot of reasons to be positive.”

Under Armour, Vodafone, On Holding, Aramark, eToro and Tencent Music Entertainment are among the stocks reporting earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell. In addition to April’s consumer price index reading, traders will also watch for April’s final hourly earnings, average workweek and treasury budget readings.

Stock market today: Live updates

Oil prices extend gains as Trump comments diminish hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal

Published Mon, May 11 2026 8:21 PM EDT

Oil prices rose Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on life support after rejecting Tehran’s counterproposal to end the war, signaling the conflict in the Middle East could drag on.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July gained 0.96% to $105.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June rose 1.10% to $99.15 per barrel.

Trump told reporters that the state of the ceasefire is “unbelievably weak,” calling Iran’s counterproposal to end the conflict “garbage.”

“I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living,’” Trump said.

Since the U.S. and Israeli-led war against Iran started on Feb. 28, WTI and Brent are both up more than 40%. “Oil prices have been volatile and can rise further if US-Iran dealmaking remains thorny,” Citi said in a note.

---- The oil market will take until 2027 to normalize if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked beyond mid-June, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Monday.

“If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will still take months for the market to rebalance, and if its opening is delayed by a few more weeks, then normalization will last into 2027,” Nasser, who heads the world’s largest oil company, told investors on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.

Oil prices today: Brent, WTI rise as Iran tensions escalate

Gulf War Sends World Currencies in Search of Equilibrium

May 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT+1

The world’s currencies are in search of new equilibrium after the war against Iran dislodged business-as-usual in energy and debt markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant landed in Tokyo today to discuss persistent yen weakness. The currency — long a favorite among European traders — has come under fresh pressure following the US-Israeli war against Iran. With more than 95% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, Japan is highly exposed to disruptions in the region.

Closer to home, the strength of Switzerland’s franc is bleeding into the economy. Long seen as a haven in stormy markets, its strength is now forcing domestic watchmakers to lay off workers as their time pieces become more expensive in foreign currencies.

The Persian Gulf conflict is also taking its toll on a lucrative bet on the Turkish lira. That currency is coming under strain as a surge in energy oil import bills threatens to accelerate the currency’s slide. And over in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is appealing to citizens to cut fuel use and limit travel to ease the strain foreign-exchange reserves.

Taken together, the second and third-order impacts of war on Iran are beginning to show in currency markets, where investors are assessing how energy scarcity will impact the broader economy. In Europe, it will likely mean at least two interest-rate hikes before year-end. Check out today’s market wrap for more. —Jonathan Tirone

What You Need to Know Today

There’s a race against time in oil markets as the factors that combined to restrain price rises from the Iran war come under strain if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into June. That’s the assessment of bankers at Morgan Stanley, who warned oil prices could reach $150 a barrel if the chokepoint remains closed past late June. Saudi Arabian exports to China are already plunging and the International Energy Agency warned energy supply chains may be permanently altered.

The US and Iran remain far apart on a framework to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Donald Trump calling the Islamic Republic’s reply to his proposed peace plan unworkable Tehran demanded a lifting of the US naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining a degree of control over traffic through Hormuz.

Gulf War Sends World Currencies in Search of Equilibrium - Bloomberg

In other news.

Modi says Iran war poses severe risks to India, urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases

Published Mon, May 11 2026 12:48 AM EDT

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged citizens to curb fuel use, reduce overseas travel, and pause gold purchases, underscoring the severe impact of the Iran war on the economy.

Global fuel costs have surged, Modi said in a public address in the southern city of Hyderabad, appealing to Indians to use public transport, work from home, and carpool to conserve fuel.

India is the latest among the growing number of Asian countries encouraging lower fuel consumption as energy costs climb amid tensions in the Middle East.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump said Iran’s counterproposal to end the war with the U.S., and Israel was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”, dashing hopes of peace and pushing global oil prices higher.

India imports nearly 85% of its fuel needs and relies on the Strait of Hormuz for about 50% of its crude imports, 60% of its liquefied natural gas, and almost all of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies.

Higher energy costs are expected to significantly widen the country’s trade deficit and current account deficit. The rupee has also come under strain and is trading near an all-time low against the dollar.

Modi said reducing foreign travel and gold imports would help conserve foreign currency reserves as higher oil prices increase pressure on India’s import bill.

Shares of Indian jewelry companies fell by as much as 10% on Monday, with the stock of the Tata group-owned jeweler Titan falling nearly 6% in early trade.

Shares of Indian flight carrier IndiGo’s also fell 2.8%. The airline is expanding its services on international routes and expects overseas flights to account for 40% of daily services by 2030, according to local media reports.

Economic woes

India spent $174.9 billion on crude and petroleum products, or 22% of its total imports in the financial year ended March 2026, highlighting the economy’s dependence on overseas commodities. The country is the world’s second-largest gold buyer after China, spending nearly $72 billion on gold imports.

About 32.7 million Indians traveled abroad in 2025, including more than 14 million leisure travelers.

“The Middle East conflict represents a historically large energy shock with asymmetric macro risks,” said global brokerage UBS Securities in a May 4 note, lowering its forecast for India’s economic growth in the financial year ending March 2027 to 6.2% from 6.7% earlier.

“I don’t believe that a [economic] shock is around the corner,” said Nirupama Rao, former Indian ambassador to the U.S., China and Sri Lanka, told CNBC’s Inside India on Monday.

However, she said the country faces “difficult times ahead” unless there is peace or a resolution of the crisis in the Middle East.

More

Modi says Iran war poses severe risks to India, urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

UK households bracing for new cost of living crisis, report finds

PwC survey reports fast fall in consumer confidence with people worried about Iran war’s impact on economy and personal finances

Mon 11 May 2026 07.00 BST

British households are bracing for a new cost of living crisis, as the impact of the Middle East conflict dampens confidence in the economy and personal finances, a survey has suggested.

Consumer confidence in the UK has dipped over the last three months at the fastest rate since June 2022, when inflation in the UK was soaring as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the spike in commodity prices.

The quarterly survey from the accountancy firm PwC, which measures factors such as consumers’ spending intentions and how well off they feel, recorded a score of -13 in April, a sharp fall from -1 in January and the lowest level since autumn 2023.

PwC said confidence about household finances was down across all age groups, although young people were still more optimistic than older people, despite there being a 20% fall in those under 35 who feel financially healthy and a 9% increase in those who are struggling or in trouble with their bills and finances.

Almost 90% of 2,068 consumers surveyed by PwC said they were concerned about the cost of living, and almost 80% plan to cut back on their spending in the next three months. The proportion of those who say they will drive less to save money on rising fuel costs has doubled from 12% to 24% since January.

“Rising costs are prompting shoppers to pull back spend across the board, and it’s expected sentiment will get worse before it gets better, as consumers face higher energy and food costs later in the year,” said Sam Waller, the leader of industry for consumer markets at PwC UK.

The PwC report mirrors other consumer confidence surveys, with the data company GfK also reporting last month that UK consumer confidence slid in April to its lowest level since October 2023, amid the mounting economic fallout from the Iran war.

It also reflects the situation in the US, after data on Friday showed consumer confidence there fell to a fresh record low on concerns about higher prices.

The Bank of England said last week that higher inflation in the UK was going to be “unavoidable” due to the Middle East conflict, which will push up the price of fuel, food and energy.

More

UK households bracing for new cost of living crisis, report finds | UK cost of living crisis | The Guardian

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

More on a problem that’s only going to get worse with each passing year.

UK firefighters called to one lithium-ion battery fire every five hours

FoI responses collected by insurer show brigades tackled 1,760 battery-linked fires in 2025, up 147% in three years

Mon 11 May 2026 07.00 BST

Fire brigades across the UK are tackling lithium-ion battery fires at a rate of one every five hours, figures show, as fire chiefs warn that public awareness and government regulation have not kept pace with the ubiquity of this new hazard.

Lithium-ion batteries power most rechargeable devices including mobile phones, electric toothbrushes, toys and vapes, as well as ebikes, e-scooters and electric vehicles.

Data gathered by the global business insurer QBE via freedom of information requests reveals that fire brigades were called to 1,760 fires linked to lithium-ion batteries in 2025, equating to 4.8 fires a day, an increase of 147% over the past three years.

Electric vehicle fires rose by 133% over the same period, while the number of electric vehicles on UK roads tripled during that time.

QBE researchers found that ebike fires made up nearly a third of all lithium-ion battery fires nationally and noted that retrofitted and converted ebikes appeared to be disproportionately involved compared with certified models.

There were 520 callouts to fires involving ebikes in 2025, compared with 149 in 2022. London fire brigade (LFB) tackled 44% of these, with 230 ebike fires occurring in the capital last year and five related fatalities in the past three years.

LFB’s deputy commissioner for prevention, Spencer Sutcliff, said the brigade remained “extremely concerned” about ebike and e-scooter fires, and public awareness was vital.

“We believe regulation can help improve product safety and reduce the chance of consumers being exposed on online marketplaces to faulty or counterfeit products such as ebike batteries, chargers and conversion kits,” he said.

A blaze that devastated a historic building in Glasgow and resulted in the two-week closure of Central station, Scotland’s largest rail interchange, is believed to have started in a shop selling vapes, which are powered by lithium-ion batteries.

If used incorrectly or damaged, these batteries can cause a hazard called thermal runaway, a dangerous chain reaction where the temperature inside the battery rises uncontrollably, producing a toxic gas that vents at high pressure, creating a flame like a blowtorch, and exploding.

Collating data received from 46 out of 52 fire brigades contacted across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, QBE researchers also found that nearly half (46%) of all lithium-ion fires took place in people’s homes.

More

UK firefighters called to one lithium-ion battery fire every five hours | Firefighters | The Guardian

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later.

Charles Mackay (1852). “Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.

Trump-Xi Meeting. Food Problems “Growing.” US Inflation.

Baltic Dry Index. 2978 -56     Brent Crude 105.62

Spot Gold  4686                           Spot Silver 81.16

US 2 Year Yield 3.90 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 39.227 trillion

US GDP 32.108 trillion.

We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork.

Milton Friedman

A big week ahead. President Trump didn’t like Iran’s reply to his one page so called “peace plan” for ending his Iran war.

Tomorrow we get the latest US inflation figures for April, probably starting to be impacted by Trump’s Persian Gulf war.

Mid-week, the summit in Beijing between Presidents Xi and Trump.

On Friday, it’s Chairman Powell’s last day as Chairman of the US central bank.

South Korea’s Kospi hits fresh record as Asia markets trade mixed amid oil surge, Iran risks

Published Sun, May 10 2026 7:46 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi opened at a fresh record Monday, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets amid rising oil prices and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

President Donald Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal to end the war, however, stoked worries over an elongated Middle East conflict.

Iran submitted a new proposal to U.S. negotiators focused on ending the Middle East conflict. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said that the counteroffer called for an end to the war on all fronts and the lifting of sanctions on Tehran, citing an informed source.

However, Trump said he did not like Iran’s response and called it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” in a Truth Social Post.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that the war with Iran was “not over,” as the U.S. and Israel still aim to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Netanyahu’s comments come ahead of Trump’s trip to China later this week, where he’s expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have spiked global energy costs and sharply raised gas prices in the U.S.

The West Texas Intermediate futures for June was 3.94% higher at $99.18 per barrel as of 9:32 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures for July rose 3.49% to $104.83 per barrel.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.70% after opening to a fresh record, while the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.30% lower. Index heavyweight SK Hynix rose 10.74%, tracking U.S. chip-related equities which surged Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was in choppy trade and was marginally lower, while the Topix gained 0.19%. Nintendo shares fell 5.54%, as investors digested news that the game developer will hike Switch 2 prices while expecting a decline in console sales.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.83% lower.

China’s CSI 300 added 0.58%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 0.48%. Investors were also assessing data showing that China’s consumer and producer inflation rose more than expected in April, driven by higher commodity costs linked to the Middle East conflict.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 143 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each also lost 0.3%.

Sunday’s moves come after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied more than 2% and 4%, respectively, last week. Both indexes recorded their sixth-straight winning weeks — a first for each since 2024.

The Dow rose 0.2% for the week, notching its fifth week of gains out of the last six.

Asia markets today: Nikkei, Kospi, Hang Seng, Sensex, CSI 300

Global week ahead: Crude diplomacy casts shadow over Trump-Xi summit

Published Sun, May 10 2026 5:07 AM EDT

China has quietly amassed the world’s largest stockpile of crude oil.

This is no mean feat for a country that is also the globe’s biggest importer of energy.

It brings a fresh dynamic to Beijing’s relations with the United States, as Premier Xi Jinping prepares to host President Donald Trump for a high-stakes state visit on May 14 and 15.

The “Teapot” Party

There is already controversy. China’s Commerce Ministry banned Chinese companies from complying with U.S. sanctions on small refineries that purchase Iranian crude. The so-called “teapot refineries” have been encouraged by Chinese authorities to import Iranian oil because they are seen as immune to foreign sanctions, according to Teneo. The research house warns that China’s non-compliance with the sanctions could prompt Washington to launch a second round of restrictions to clamp down on the Sino-Iranian trade.

Stockpiles

Oil markets are no longer dealing with a flow disruption, but with a rapidly compounding stock shock, according to Kpler. The analytics group says that most Middle East cargoes loaded before the war have now been discharged, meaning the inventory drawdown will accelerate and local refining will slow.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil to strategic reserves in 2025, with “preliminary government data indicating that China has continued to build inventories in 2026” ahead of the Iran conflict.

This means that government and commercial oil stockpiles in China averaged around 360 million barrels in December 2025, which compares to America’s strategic reserves of nearly 414 million barrels over the same period.

China’s crude buying binge has helped to prevent even higher spikes in oil prices amid the Strait of Hormuz deadlock. It has also provided a lifeline to Asian importers that have been most directly impacted by the halt in Middle East energy deliveries.

Crude Diplomacy

For China, heightened tensions with the U.S. and sanctions-related disruption mean strategic petroleum reserves are acting as a hedge against supply constraints, price volatility and currency volatility, according to the Oxford Energy Institute.

The war in Iran is expected to dominate the meeting between President Trump and Premier Xi Jinping, potentially at the cost of other agenda items like tariffs, rare earths and AI. Beijing’s quiet power play to build strategic oil reserves shifts the energy dynamic between China and the U.S., adding another layer of complexity to this critical meeting.

More to watch this week:

Monday: EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting

Tuesday: German inflation data, U.S. inflation data

Wednesday: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, IEA Oil Market Report

Thursday: U.K. GDP data, BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting

Friday: Credit rating reviews: Germany, Italy and Ukraine

Global week ahead: Crude diplomacy casts shadow over Trump-Xi summit

Gold falls on oil-driven inflation worries as U.S.–Iran peace talks falter

Published Sun, May 10 202611:01 PM EDT

Gold prices fell on Monday, as a lack of progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations pushed oil prices higher, fueling concerns that elevated inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer.

Spot gold fell 0.6% at $4,684.32 per ounce, as of 0223 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery lost 0.8% at $4,692.70.

The dollar firmed, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal for peace talks, dashing hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that has caused widespread damage in Iran and Lebanon, paralyzed maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and driven up global energy prices.

“We’re essentially seeing an unwinding of hopes for an imminent (peace) deal, and gold is feeling the pinch from the renewed rise in crude prices,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Oil prices jumped as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, keeping global energy supplies tight.

Rising crude oil prices risk pushing inflation higher, increasing the prospects of elevated interest rates. While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, high interest rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding asset.

The ongoing war with Iran and its shock to oil prices and supplies have rocketed to the top of the list of concerns for financial stability, according to a semi-annual Federal Reserve report released on Friday.

Investors are now looking out for April’s U.S. Consumer Price Index data, due later this week, for further clues on the Fed’s monetary policy direction.

Meanwhile, China’s gold production fell in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, the China Gold Association said on Saturday, as safety inspections led some smelters to suspend production for maintenance.

“In the near-to-medium term, the $4,400 to $4,800 range still looks firmly in play while we remain in this ceasefire-without-a-peace-deal stalemate,” Waterer added.

More

Gold falls on oil-driven inflation worries as U.S.–Iran peace talks falter

In other commodities news, worrying times. Price rationing in wheat will be partially mitigated by last year’s excellent wheat harvest, but will the high cost of fertiliser and diesel impact the rest of the world’s wheat crops?

‘The worst time for wheat’: US farmers face losses to extreme heat and drought

Temperature swings have left crops across the Plains in terrible conditions, with some farmers opting not to harvest

Fri 8 May 2026 11.00 BST

Merrill Nielsen’s wheat crop looked healthy after he planted it in the fall on his 2,500-acre farm in north-central Kansas, about 50 miles west of Salina, the plants benefiting from higher-than-normal November rainfall.

But an abnormally warm and dry winter, followed by extreme temperature variability, stressed the developing wheat. In the winter-to-spring transition, temperatures fluctuated from 70 to 80F on some days and lows in the teens or low 20s on other days.

He jokes that the wheat “wasn’t sure whether or not to have its Bermuda shorts and sunglasses on and bake in the sun … or to have its winter coat on”.

But the volatile weather destroyed his crop. This week, a crop insurance adjuster told Nielsen that, at best, his fields would yield two bushels per acre, compared with the normal upper-40s to mid-50s bushels per acre. “Crop will be terminated,” he texted a reporter, deciding not to harvest what little wheat grew.

Nielsen has farmed for about 50 years, and grows wheat, grain sorghum, soya beans and alfalfa on the farm his great-grandfather established in 1871. He says this year’s season was one of his worst in years. He’s not alone.

Farmers in the central and southern Great Plains grow much of the country’s bread-type wheat, hard red winter. It’s sown in the fall to establish roots ahead of winter so it can start growing before the summer heat sets in. Kansas is the largest US producer, with Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska big growers as well.

Numbers bear out Nielsen’s observations, as Kansas and Oklahoma had their second-warmest year from March 2025 to March 2026. In March, temperatures were 10 to 11F above normal, says Shel Winkley, a Texas-based meteorologist at Climate Central, a non-profit research organization. It was the third-warmest March on record for Kansas, with record warmth for Oklahoma, allowing drought conditions to set in further.

This year’s winter wheat crop condition in the Plains is one of the poorest in recent history, rivaling 2023, another drought year. The weekly crop condition report issued by an arm of the US Department of Agriculture rates the 44% of Kansas’s and 49% of Oklahoma’s wheat in very poor to poor condition, with similar ratings elsewhere.

The extreme March heat has the fingerprints of the climate crisis, Winkley says, because of the drought and prolonged heat the area was already experiencing.

“It wasn’t just a weird, wonky March. We understand there’s something bigger here,” he says. “Especially at the peak of the heat in March, we know that those temperatures would be rare or almost virtually impossible at that time of the year in the central Plains, without an influence of climate change.”

Farmers in north-central and north-west Kansas were hit hard this season, and Romulo Lollato, the wheat and forages production professor at Kansas State University, expects affected producers in this area may follow Nielsen’s decision not to harvest.

Other Kansas farmers are doing slightly better but will also see some yield loss. Ben Palen, a fifth-generation farmer in north-east Kansas, near Lawrence, farms 15,000 acres of corn, sunflowers, millet, grain sorghum and organic wheat. He may only yield 30% of his normal crop. He’s waiting on an estimate of how much he might be able to harvest this year.

Vance Ehmke, who farms 11,000 acres in Lane county, in south-west Kansas, saw 90F temperatures in early January, with freezing weather after. In late April, rainfall of less than an inch fell on his parched crops, which perked up the plants.

“That helped a whole bunch, but we’re so far behind that it’s not even funny now,” says Ehmke, who has farmed for more than 50 years.

There’s still some time for crops to benefit from moisture before harvest starts in early June, but longer-range forecasts between May and July call for below-average rainfall in Kansas and Nebraska, Winkley says.

Wheat is a resilient crop and can improve even with modest amounts of rain, so estimating yields and crop size before final harvest is tricky. But wheat experts say with a combination of reduced planted acres and potential abandonment, US total wheat production will fall. Earlier this year, the USDA estimated that US wheat acreage will be the lowest since 1919.

US wheat seedings have trended lower in recent years because planting corn and soya beans was more lucrative, at least until recently. Now, no crops are profitable as costs outweigh current grain prices. That will factor into wheat farmers’ decisions whether to salvage some production.

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‘The worst time for wheat’: US farmers face losses to extreme heat and drought | Farming | The Guardian

In other news, starting wars is easy, ending them not so, as President Trump found out. Nor are wars cheap, when you mess up the world’s supply chains of oil, LNG, LPG, fertiliser, aluminium, urea, sulphur, and shipping, to name just a few, (fiat dollar demand?)

Trump Is ‘Bored’ With the War He Started

He wants out, but Iran could likely keep going for months.

By Jonathan Lemire May 8, 2026, 12:28 PM ET

President Trump really, really wants the war with Iran to end. He has declared victory many times, including about three weeks ago, when Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He has repeatedly extended his cease-fire deadlines instead of following through on his (sometimes-apocalyptic) threats to resume hostilities. This week, his administration abruptly abandoned an effort to escort ships through the strait in part because of a fear that it could provoke violent, escalating confrontations.

Trump is tired of the war, which has proved far more difficult and lasted far longer than he had expected. His party is warily watching rising gas prices and falling poll numbers. He doesn’t want to be bogged down in a Middle East conflict like some of his predecessors were. He doesn’t want it to upend his high-stakes summit next week in China. He is ready to move on.

But Iran, it seems, does not want the war to come to a close. Or at least not with any sort of outcome that could be acceptable to American negotiators. Trump is now in a bind. The president, five aides and outside advisers told me, is convinced that he can sell any sort of agreement as a win. But at least for now, the man who wrote The Art of the Deal can’t even get Iran to the negotiating table. Today, Washington is still waiting for Iran to respond to the latest offering, a one-page memorandum of understanding that is far more of an extension of the cease-fire than a treaty to end the conflict.

Trump is left with a vexing question: How do you end a war when your opponent won’t budge? And while Trump grasps for an exit, the hard-liners in Tehran have used the war to tighten their grip on power. Iran seems hell-bent on pulling off something it’s historically done well: humiliating an American president.

Trump never thought it would turn out like this. After the impressive military operation to snatch Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, the president set his eyes on Iran, telling confidants that it would “be another Venezuela,” a pair of outside advisers told me. They, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy. Trump believed that the U.S. military was unstoppable, and that he had a chance to topple Tehran’s theocracy, a prize that had eluded his predecessors. He was redrawing the world’s maps and expected a victory to come in days, a week or two at most. The initial U.S.-Israel onslaught killed Iran’s supreme leader and included waves of bombings that reportedly obliterated much of the country’s missile capabilities. But Tehran did not capitulate, and instead attacked its Persian Gulf neighbors and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. With a mix of mines, small attack boats, and drones, Iran effectively closed the waterway. Energy prices soared. The conflict settled into a stalemate and then a fragile cease-fire. One high-profile, official round of negotiations failed. No more are scheduled.

Outwardly Trump has expressed nothing but confidence. Sometimes, he downplays the war, calling it a “little excursion” or “detour” or “mini war.” He has proclaimed imminent victory nearly every day, a braggadocio that’s matched by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at his Pentagon briefings. Behind closed doors, the volume is lower, but U.S. officials do believe a naval blockade of Iran’s ports, installed last month, is working and squeezing the country’s economy. Facing collapse, two officials predicted, Iran will be forced to negotiate.

But the real question is the timing: A number of experts have forecast that Iran can withstand pressure from the blockade for months, not weeks. A U.S. intelligence assessment delivered to policy makers this week agrees, suggesting that Iran could make it at least three or four more months. If so, and Iran continues to keep the strait closed, then prices will continue to rise in the West, including in the United States during a midterm-election year. It then becomes a matter of pain: Which side can withstand the most economic hardship?

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Trump Is ‘Bored’ With the War He Started - The Atlantic

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Iran war is crushing Asia’s farmers, threatening global food supply

Prices of fuel and fertilizer are pushing farmers to make irreversible cuts as they enter key planting seasons.

9 May 2026

SUPHAN BURI, Thailand — Saithong Jamjai has just finished harvesting the rice on the 19 hectares of farmland she owns in central Thailand and now is the time to sow again. But she won’t, she said, because of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

She has gone over the math for weeks. Because of surging prices, driven by the war, of fuel, fertilizer, plastics and other necessities, planting and harvesting will cost her at least $33,000, she said. The grain that she’ll produce, she estimates, will sell in August for only $22,000.

“A confirmed loss,” Saithong, 53, concluded. She’d rather let her land bake under the yellowing husks from last season. “We’re not going to sink the resources,” she said. “Not in this situation.”

The standoff between President Donald Trump and Iran that has brought shipping to a virtual halt in the Persian Gulf has set off supply chain shocks that are upending lives thousands of miles away in Asia, raising costs for farmers at the start of key planting seasons that will sharply reduce crop yields in the second half of the year and beyond, according to government officials, economists and farming groups.

Addressing world leaders in Rome on Thursday, Dongyu Qu, the director general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, said the war had created not only a geopolitical crisis but “a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system.”

Iran’s destruction of gas infrastructure in the Gulf and the dueling U.S.-Iran efforts to choke the Strait of Hormuz have prevented crucial supplies of fuel and its derivatives like urea — a potent source of nitrogen that enhances harvests — from leaving the Middle East. Because fuel infrastructure takes years to build, there is no ready replacement for these supplies.

In effect, 30 percent of the world’s urea has been “wiped out,” said Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst at the market intelligence firm CRU Group. China, a major fertilizer producer, has restricted exports to ensure its farmers have enough. Russia, another big manufacturer, is seeing demand soar, potentially boosting its economy and aiding its war in Ukraine. On what is known as the spot market, urea prices are up 40 percent since February.

On Monday, Trump said the United States would guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz but then quickly reversed himself after reports that two U.S. destroyers had come under attack while transiting the strait. Even if ship traffic resumes, however, it would take at least a month or two for cargo to arrive at destinations and for markets to stabilize, Goyal said.

The longer the production plants in the Middle East stay closed, the longer they will take to restart. “This problem builds in a nonlinear fashion,” Goyal said.

So do its repercussions.

In Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Australia, which are the first since the war to enter key sowing periods, farmers are choosing to skip or reduce planting, or cut fertilizer use, which will lower yield.

As the war stretches deeper into the crop calendar, farmers from more countries will be forced to make similar choices, said Maximo Torero, chief economist for the FAO. “Right now, the impacts are more severe in Asia,” Torero said. “But clearly, this is moving east to west and south to north.”

In June, India and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest agricultural producers, will ramp up orders for urea. If, by then, vessels carrying urea are not sailing, there will be “significant yield loss” across many countries, Torero said. Commodity prices will climb, stoking inflation. The hit to economic growth, he said, will be “very close to what happened in covid-19.”

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Iran war is crushing Asia’s farmers, threatening global food supply - The Washington Post

FAO head: Strait of Hormuz crisis will affect 2026, 2027 crops

May 8, 2026

Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Qu Dongyu today told a group of ministers from Mediterranean countries that the global fertilizer scarcity caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will lead to lower yields and tightening food supplies in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027.

The director general spoke at the ministerial meeting of the MED9++ Countries on “Supporting Food Security and Access to Fertilizers” co-chaired by FAO, Italy and Croatia.”We meet at a moment of profound strain,” the director-general said. “This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system.

“Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed,” he said. “Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.”

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 FAO head: Strait of Hormuz crisis will affect 2026, 2027 crops | TSLN.com

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

‘A share in the delight’: the people investing in the UK’s first community-owned solar battery

Oxfordshire’s Ray Valley Solar already generates clean energy for 7,000 homes, and is now crowdfunding storage to marry daylight with evening demand

Fri 8 May 2026 10.00 BST

Tucked away among hedgerows on a large field between a motorway and the River Ray, one of the UK’s largest community-owned solar parks is hard to spot from the surrounding country lanes.

But the nearly 36,000 solar panels installed on the site are literally a shining example of what can be achieved when a renewable energy project is co-owned by local people.

Ray Valley Solar, south of Bicester in Oxfordshire, generates enough clean electricity to power about 7,000 homes for a year, and uses its profits to provide grants to community initiatives that help reduce carbon emissions and make homes, schools and businesses across Oxfordshire more energy efficient.

Now, plans to install battery storage at the site with investment from members of the public – the first community-owned battery at a renewable energy project in the UK – will, it is hoped, give the project a big boost.

On very sunny days, Ray Valley Solar – which uses efficient double-sided solar panels that can capture sunlight that bounces back from the ground at the rear of the panels – produces more clean electricity than the local grid can take, resulting in some energy being wasted.

Storage is a critical challenge for the young technology around renewable energy. But plans to install a battery here mean the project will capture surplus solar power during the day and store it until it can be released during the peaks of demand in the evening, when the grid is more carbon intensive and electricity more expensive.

“This will allow the community solar park to generate more power and therefore to earn more money, which is reinvested into local sustainability and emission-cutting projects,” said Barbara Hammond, the chief executive of the Low Carbon Hub, one of the biggest community energy organisations in the country, which set up the solar park in 2022.

With capacity to store 12 megawatt hours of electricity every day, the battery is expected to save enough electricity to power an additional 300 homes a year. By selling the electricity for a higher price during the evening peak, Low Carbon Hub estimates it can increase its community benefit contribution to £1m over the battery’s 15-year lifetime.

Batteries, however, are still extremely expensive, although the race is on globally to find cheaper ways to produce them. In order to finance the installation of this particular lithium-ion battery, planned for October, the Low Carbon Hub is seeking to raise between £500,000 and £1.3m. People and organisations can buy shares between £100 and £100,000 in the hub’s Community Energy Fund via the investing platform Ethex until late June, with investors forecast to receive up to 5% return on their investment.

The hub, which has more than 2,000 shareholders in its fund so far, has successfully raised large amounts of money to fund community energy projects before, including £3m to establish Ray Valley Solar.

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‘A share in the delight’: the people investing in the UK’s first community-owned solar battery | Solar power | The Guardian

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

Alan Greenspan