Baltic
Dry Index. 2063 -32 Brent Crude 70.46
Spot Gold 5014 Spot Silver 77.82
US 2 Year Yield 3.47 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 38.705 trillion US GDP 31.167 trillion.
Reasonable men are not reasonable when you're in the bubbles which have characterized capitalism since the beginning of time.
Paul Samuelson
We open as usual with the stock casinos, but with America’s latest new war preparations against Iran now complete, is a diplomatic peace deal even possible without President Trump and the USA looking like they just blinked?
Everyone is betting on a quick Iran war and fast USA victory, with very little impact on crude oil prices. Well maybe, but what if the crude oil price surges?
“The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men. Gang aft a-gley.”
South Korea’s Kospi jumps to record high as
regional rally tracks Wall Street gains
Published Wed, Feb 18 2026 6:35 PM EST
South Korea’s Kospi hit a fresh record
high Thursday, as the region tracked gains on Wall Street and several bourses
in Asia resumed trading after the Lunar New Year holiday.
The Kospi index jumped 2.84% to a fresh
record high, with index heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix up 4.14%
and 1.48%, respectively.
“After nearly doubling in 2025, Korea is
again the leading market in Asia Pacific,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a recent
note. “While many investors are asking if they should reduce positions after
such strong performance, we think it is still too early.”
The investment bank forecasts 120% growth
for Korean equity markets in 2026, after rising 36% in 2025.
The small-cap Kosdaq advanced 4.68%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.93%.
Hong Kong and mainland China markets
remain closed for the Lunar New Year break.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 moved higher,
supported by gains in key technology names, as traders weighed the release of
the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting.
The broad-based index climbed 0.56% to end
at 6,881.31, while the Nasdaq
Composite added 0.78% to settle at 22,753.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
0.26% to close at 49,662.66.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Kospi, Nikkei 225, Nifty 50
Stock futures are little changed after major
averages post gains; Walmart earnings loom: Live updates
Updated Thu, Feb 19 2026 7:25 PM EST
Stock futures traded near the flatline
Wednesday night after the major averages posted a winning session. Investors
also looked ahead to quarterly results from retail giant Walmart, due in the morning.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
43 points, or 0.09%. S&P
500 futures slipped 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped
0.1%.
In the regular session, the S&P 500 closed higher by
nearly 0.6%, while the Nasdaq
Composite added 0.8%. The 30-stock Dow gained 129 points, or
about 0.3%.
The indexes were buoyed by gains across
the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks and strength in financials and energy
names. Nvidia added
1.6%, while Amazon rose
1.8%.
“A rebound in mega‑cap stocks, along with
a pause in the rotation and broadening theme that has defined market
performance this year, would not be surprising in the weeks ahead,” said Edward
Jones senior global investment strategist Angelo Kourkafas.
“Selling has been broad and
indiscriminate, and in some cases, valuations may already reflect a substantial
degree of disruption risk relative to current fundamentals,” he added.
To be sure, Kourkafas said that even as
pessimism in the tech sector has likely become overstated, the prospect of the
group “regaining sustainable leadership remains doubtful” as the macroeconomic
environment continues to favor cyclical stocks.
Geopolitical volatility on Wednesday
pushed up oil prices by more than 4%. The move happened after Vice President JD
Vance said that Iran did not address core
U.S. demands in nuclear talks this week. He said that
President Donald Trump maintains the right to use military
force if diplomatic efforts do not stop Iran’s nuclear program.
Elsewhere, investors weighed minutes from
the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, which reflected
a divide among central bank officials on the future outlook for
monetary policy.
On the earnings front, Walmart’s
fourth-quarter report is due on Thursday morning. The company’s results are
often viewed as a bellwether for the U.S. economy and consumer spending. Shares
of Walmart have been on a tear in 2026, up more than 13%. The retailer’s market
capitalization recently put it in the $1
trillion club, which means the stock’s reaction could set the tone for the
major averages.
Traders will also be watching for weekly
jobless claims data due Thursday, as well as the pending home sales report. The
major event in the way of economic releases this week will be Friday’s release
of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a preferred inflation
gauge for the Fed.
Stock
market today: Live updates
U.S. Military Moves Into Place for Possible
Strikes in Iran
President Trump has given no indication that he has made a decision about how to proceed, as diplomatic talks continue.
Feb. 18, 2026
The rapid buildup of U.S. forces in the
Middle East has progressed to the point that President Trump has the option to
take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend, administration and
Pentagon officials said, leaving the White House with high-stakes choices about
pursuing diplomacy or war.
Mr. Trump has given no indication that he
has made a decision about how to proceed. But the drive to assemble
a military force capable of striking Iran’s nuclear program, its
ballistic missiles and accompanying launch sites has continued this week
despite indirect talks between the two nations on Tuesday, with Iran seeking
two weeks to come back with fleshed out proposals for a diplomatic resolution.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly demanded that
Iran give up its nuclear program, including agreeing not to enrich any more
uranium. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, whose country would
potentially take part in an attack, has been pushing for action to weaken
Iran’s ability to launch missiles at Israel.
Israeli forces, which have been on
heightened alert for weeks, have been making more preparations for a possible
war, and a meeting of Israel’s security cabinet was moved to Sunday from
Thursday, according to two Israeli defense officials.
Many administration officials have
expressed skepticism about the prospects of reaching a diplomatic deal with
Tehran. The indirect talks on Tuesday in Geneva ended with what Iran’s foreign
minister said was agreement on a “set of guiding principles.” U.S. officials
said the two sides made progress but added that big gaps remain.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened that
Iran must meet his terms or face severe consequences. But another attack, eight
months after a 12-day war in which Israel and the United States assaulted
military and nuclear sites across Iran, would potentially carry substantial
risks, including that Iran would respond with a ferocious barrage of missile
strikes on Israel and on U.S. forces in the region.
For a president who ran for office
promising to keep the United States out of wars, Mr. Trump is now considering
what would be at least the seventh American military attack in another country
in the past year, and his second on Iran. Last June, after striking three
Iranian nuclear sites, Mr. Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been
“obliterated.” But now he is considering sending U.S. military back to continue
the job.
The U.S. military buildup includes dozens
of refueling tankers, rushed to the region by United States Central Command,
more than 50 additional fighter jets, and two aircraft carrier strike groups,
complete with their accompanying destroyers, cruisers and submarines, U.S.
officials said.
The aircraft carrier U.S.S.
Gerald R. Ford, fresh from the Caribbean where it was part of the naval
fleet pressuring the Venezuelan government of President Nicolás Maduro, was
approaching Gibraltar on Wednesday as it made its way to join the aircraft
carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln in the region.
More
As
Trump Weighs Possible Iran Strikes, U.S. Military Moves Into Place - The New
York Times
In other less war mongering news, higher US
interest rates ahead?
Fed Displays a ‘Hawkish Tilt’ Amid Inflation
Fear
February 18, 2026 at 10:56 PM GMT
Donald Trump has spent his second term
pushing for Federal Reserve rate cuts he
hopes will reignite an economy that a few years ago boasted
unemployment lower than at any time since the Nixon administration.
A lot of that effort has focused on trying
to push out the central bank’s current members with insults, threats, attempted
firings and even an unprecedented criminal probe by his Justice Department. But
even now, Fed officials are signaling renewed worries over inflation, with
“several” policymakers suggesting the central bank may need to raise interest
rates again.
“Several participants” said they would
have preferred a statement that surfaced the possibility of raising
the funds rate “if inflation remains at above-target levels,” minutes of
the central bank’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting showed.
That could put the Fed on a collision
course not only with Trump, but his handpicked successor to be the next Fed
chair. “The minutes carry a distinctly more hawkish tilt,” Gregory Daco,
chief economist at EY-Parthenon, wrote in a note to clients. “This sets up an
interesting dynamic if and when Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed chair.” —David
E. Rovella
Fed
Displays a ‘Hawkish Tilt’ Amid Inflation Fear: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
Japan exports growth surges to over 3-year high,
up nearly 17% in January, as shipments to China soar
Published Tue, Feb 17 2026 7:09 PM EST
Japanese exports climbed 16.8% year on
year in January, sharply beating market expectations and growing at their
fastest rate since November 2022 as shipments to Asia and Western Europe
surged, government data on Wednesday showed.
Growth was higher than December’s 5.1%,
and beat Reuters-polled economists’ estimates of 12%.
Value of exports to China, Japan’s largest
trading partner, jumped 32%, after rising 5.6% in December at a time when the
two countries are locked in a diplomatic standoff over Prime Minister Sanae
Takaichi’s comments over Taiwan.
Shipments to the U.S. fell 5%, after
declining 11.1% in December. Washington is Japan’s second largest trading
partner.
Region-wise, a near 26% jump in shipments
to Asia and over 25% to Western Europe helped accelerate exports growth, and
more than offset the 3.3% decline in North America.
Food, machinery and electrical machinery —
which includes chips — were commodities that saw the sharpest growth, up 31.3%,
14.3% and 27.3%, respectively.
Transport equipment, which contributed
over 20% to exports, climbed by 0.8%. The segment, which includes cars and auto
parts and has been a key growth driver for Japanese exports, has come under
pressure following U.S. tariffs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index
rose 0.9%, while the broader Topix gained 1.26%. The yen marginally
strengthened to 153.43 against the U.S. dollar, while yield on benchmark
10-year government bonds was was down 1 basis point at 2.119%.
Imports in January fell 2.5% year on year,
compared with Reuters estimates of a 3% rise, and a 5.1% jump in the prior
month.
The stellar growth in outbound shipments
will be a welcome start to the new year after Japan’s exports growth declined
to 3.1% last year, compared to the 6.2% rise seen in 2024.
The Japanese economy expanded
by just 0.1% year
on year in the fourth quarter, supported by private demand, but net
exports shaved 0.8 percentage
point off growth. For the full year, GDP grew 1.1% year on year, also weighed
down by net exports.
Japanese shipments fell during the middle
of 2025, hit by U.S. tariff worries, but saw a rebound toward the end of the
year after a trade deal with the U.S. was announced that saw duties slashed to
15%.
The U.S. on Tuesday announced projects
valued at $36 billion, according to a Reuters report, including an oil export
facility in Texas, an industrial diamonds plant in Georgia and a natural gas
power plant in Ohio, to be financed by Japan as part of its $550 billion U.S.
investment pledge.
“Our MASSIVE Trade Deal with Japan has
just launched! Japan is now officially, and financially, moving forward with
the FIRST set of Investments under its $550 BILLION Dollar Commitment to invest
in the United States of America,” U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on
Truth Social.
Last week, Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei
Akazawa was quoted by public broadcaster NHK as saying he hoped the initial
projects would be finalized before Takaichi and Trump met.
Trump had announced the meeting with
Takaichi just before the Feb. 8 Lower House election, which saw Takaichi lead
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a landslide victory.
Japan exports
growth surges nearly 17% in January as shipments to China surge
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
more UK PM’s Starmer socialism at work.
UK
high street crisis as 151 companies collapse into administration
18
February 2026
The
number of UK businesses entering administration has surged in recent months,
with over 150 businesses collapsing between December and January. According to
official figures from the Insolvency Service, the number of company administrations jumped by 41% to 151 between
December and January. This number is 14% higher than the same period last year.
The
spike reflects mounting pressures on retail and hospitality businesses,
where rising costs, online shopping and subdued consumer spending
have created a challenging trading environment. Several high street giants have entered administration since
the start of 2026.
Some
of these include Claire's, The Original Factory Shop, footwear retailer Russell & Bromley and Revolution Bars owner The
Revel Collective who all entered administration last month. Clothing brand Quiz
and LK Bennett brand went into administration this month.
Game Retail has also confirmed its intention to
appoint administrators, while TGI Fridays was sold in a pre-pack deal to a
subsidiary of Sugarloaf, the firm behind the global brand. However, 16 TGI
restaurants were closed, resulting in 456 job losses.
Fast-food
chain Leon was also hit and filed for administration in
December leading to the closure of 22 locations and cutting 244 jobs as part of
a major restructuring.
Sarah
Rayment, managing director and global co-head of restructuring at Kroll, said:
"The key question at this point in the year is whether distress and
insolvencies will continue to rise given the pressures facing UK businesses.
"There
are signs of resilience in the economy, inflation has steadied and markets
expect interest rate cuts later in the year, but the picture is far from
uniform"
She
added: "There is understandable concern across the high street economy,
particularly retail, leisure and hospitality, where the debate around business
rates reform adds to an already difficult trading environment.
"But
the reality is that every sector will face headwinds this year."
Despite
the recent surge in administrations, overall company insolvencies in January
rose 4% month-on-month but remained 14% lower than a year ago, according to the
new figures.
Other
figures also show the scale of the challenge facing UK businesses. According to
the latest analysis from full-service law firm Shakespeare Martineau, published
on January 9, 1,631 UK businesses went into administration in 2025.
Although
this represents a 5% drop compared with 2024, it remains 22% higher than in
2022.
UK
high street crisis as 151 companies collapse into administration
UK packaging companies plunge into administration - only bought in 2023
18 February 2026
Three UK-based companies
have plunged into administration as the number of collapsing businesses surges
across the country. Beltline Capital, a Manchester-based firm incorporated in April 2023, bought manufacturing firms
Leighton Packaging and First Packaging in the same year. But the business,
which acquired the two assets through a "buy and build" growth
strategy, appointed administrators on February 18, alongside its two
acquisitions.
Beltine also reportedly
bought Bury-based Expert Packaging Ltd in August 2024, with the help of a £2.25
million funding package from Arbuthnot Commercial Asset Based Lending. Expert
Packaging doesn't appear to have filed for administration, but the deal - which was heralded as a "step
change in the group's revenue and profit profile" at the time - doesn't
seem to have achieved its desired result.
The Joint Administrators,
the firm appointed to Beltline Capital, and Expert Packaging Ltd have been
contacted for comment.
It comes amid a spike in
administration filings across the UK, with the number of collapsed firms
surging by over 40% in January, according to the Insolvency Service.
Official figures suggest
that the number of company administrations jumped by 41% to 151 between
December and January, and also marked a 14% year-on-year rise.
As well as impacting
sectors such as manufacturing and construction, the trend has hit major high
street retailers, including Claire's, The Original Factory Shop and Russell and Bromley.
Firms have come under
increasing pressure in recent months from soaring wage costs and subdued
customer spending, with business rates also set to surge higher in April
following reforms announced in last November's budget.
Sarah Rayment, managing
director and global co-head of restructuring at financial advisory company
Kroll, said: "The key question at this point in the year is whether
distress and insolvencies will continue to rise given the pressures facing UK
businesses.
"There are signs of
resilience in the economy, inflation has steadied and markets expect interest
rate cuts later in the year, but the picture is far from uniform. The reality
is that every sector will face headwinds this year."
UK packaging companies plunge into administration - only bought in 2023
Historic UK construction company plunges into administration - after 142
years
Employees and suppliers were left shocked by the sudden closure.
08:39, Wed, Feb 18,
2026 Updated: 08:42, Wed, Feb 18, 2026
A UK construction company
has collapsed into administration after operating for 142 years. It comes as a wide range of
businesses, including fashion retailers, pubs, and restaurants, are suffering
from financial challenges, forcing owners to shut shop.
Jerram Falkus
Construction firm suddenly shut down this week, with the notice of appointment
of an administrator confirmed on Tuesday, February 17. People have been left
shocked and confused by the news, as the closure seemed to come out of the blue.
One supplier told the
Construction Enquirer: "We turned up at one of their jobs to make a
scheduled delivery on Monday, and the gates were locked.
"Their people seemed
in total shock as to what's going on."
The established
family-run business had been operating across London and the South-East since
1884, working on projects between £2 million and a staggering £40 million.
More
Luxury UK chocolate maker collapses into administration – 40 years in
business
18 February 2026
A luxury UK chocolate
maker has entered administration after 40 years in business.
Marasu’s Petit Fours was
founded in 1986 by patissiers Rolf Kern and Gabi Kohler, who wanted to
make premium chocolates for elite establishments. It was acquired by
the Prestat Group in 2006 and has since supplied Prestat, Fortnum & Mason,
Selfridges, and Harrods.
It was London's largest
producer of premium chocolates with an annual production of more than 300
tonnes from its 25,000 sq ft facilities in Park Royal but it has faced
difficult market conditions recently.
Marasu’s appointed
administrators on February 6, and the specific reason for its collapse is not
yet known, with Alessandro Sidoli and Jessica Barker of Xeinadin Corporate
Recovery Limited named as joint administrators.
It follows Prestat also
going into administration with a deal set to see it sold to L’Artisan du
Chocolat, which is owned by Polus Capital Management. This agreement was
arranged before administrators were formally appointed and means Prestat is
expected to continue as an online-only brand.
The luxury chocolatier,
founded in 1902, shut its historic Piccadilly shop in central London last week,
following mounting financial pressure from poor sales and soaring cocoa prices,
reported the Express.
In recent years, the
chocolate industry has struggled with global cocoa prices surging to record
highs in 2024 and cocoa crops being hit by disease and extreme weather, including flooding and
droughts, in key producing countries such as Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which
together account for about 60% of the world's production.
The company also
reportedly faced difficulties after attempting to expand its market using
premium cocoa varieties such as Criollo, leaving it vulnerable to cheaper
competitors.
The closure comes as part
of a prepack administration deal that will see Prestat taken over by chocolate
maker L’Artisan du Chocolat, which is owned by Polus Capital Management.
Prestat held two Royal
Warrants and counted the Royal Family, including Princess Diana, among some of its most
famous customers. In 2003, The Economist magazine even named it as one of the
top three chocolate shops in the world.
The Piccadilly shop
inspired Roald Dahl, who referenced Prestat’s truffles in his novel My Uncle
Oswald. The store, which was one of the few to continue making its own
chocolates, is also said to have inspired the fantastical sweet shop in Charlie
and the Chocolate Factory.
Luxury UK chocolate maker collapses into administration – 40 years in
business
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Nvidia is partnering with major Indian VC firms in search for the
country’s next AI start-ups
Published Tue, Feb 17 2026 10:51 PM EST
American AI chip darling Nvidia is expanding its partnerships in
India, including with venture capital firms, as it bets on the country’s AI
ecosystem that has drawn massive Big Tech investments.
The company in statement on Wednesday said it was working with
several venture capital firms, including Peak XV, Z47, Elevation Capital, Nexus
Venture Partners and Accel India to identify and fund AI startups.
This comes as venture capital investors have been increasingly
showing interest in India’s technology
startups, with the country’s strong initial public
offerings market providing lucrative returns.
India is currently holding an AI summit that has seen major tech
CEOs as well as heads of states participate in the event. Nvidia top boss
Jensen Huang was also expected to attend it but withdrew due to “unforeseen
circumstances.”
More than 4,000 AI startups in India’s have already joined
Nvidia’s global
startup program, which helps tech startups build, scale, and go to market,
according to the chip designer.
The world’s largest company by market cap also said it was
collaborating with government agencies and research institutions, as well as
continuing efforts to build the country’s domestic data centers.
Nvidia’s efforts are framed around New Delhi’s “IndiaAI mission,”
aimed at strengthening the country’s AI capabilities and free up funding for
its AI entrepreneurs.
More broadly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has set
goals for India to grow into a global tech superpower. As of September last
year, New Delhi had approved $18 billion worth
of semiconductor projects as it looks to build a domestic
supply chain.
Nvidia has also partnered with Indian cloud providers such as
Yotta, Larsen & Toubro, and E2E Networks to provide its AI chip clusters
and help build data centers in the country.
A New Delhi official reportedly said
Tuesday that the country expects as much as $200 billion in investments for
data centers over the next few years.
India’s Adani has announced plans
to invest $100 billion toward renewable energy-powered AI-ready data centers.
American tech firms including hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft and Google
have committed more
than $50 billion toward AI infrastructure and chips in the country.
Meanwhile, Nvidia said it was also supporting India’s AI companies
through its “NVIDIA Nemotron models” — a family of Nvidia AI models that
organizations can use to build new chatbots, agents, and speech systems.
These Nvidia models can be used by Indian companies to train new
AI systems on India-specific data and language, aligning with the the country’s
goal of build sovereign AI.
Sovereign AI refers to a country’s ability to build artificial
intelligence based on its own infrastructure, data and industry, so that
increasingly critical AI systems don’t depend on foreign providers.
Nvidia is
partnering with major Indian VC firms in search for the country's next AI
start-ups
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Macroeconomics, even with all of our computers and with all of
our information - is not an exact science and is incapable of being an exact
science.
Paul Samuelson
