Baltic
Dry Index. 2567 +44 Brent Crude 90.38
Spot
Gold 4830 Spot Silver 82.43
U
S 2 Year Yield 3.71 -0.07
US
Federal Debt. 39.131 trillion
US
GDP 31.336 trillion
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity,
and I'm not sure about the former.
Albert Einstein
11:00 Update.
The Latest: Iran says it has closed Hormuz
again over US blockade
Updated Sat, April 18, 2026 at 5:56 AM
GMT+1
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important
waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
The announcement Saturday came after U.S.
President Donald Trump said the blockade “will remain in full force” until
Tehran reaches a deal with the U.S., including on its nuclear program. Tehran
had reopened the strait Friday to commercial vessels.
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait and
further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher
once again. Iran’s Friday announcement about the opening of the crucial body of
water, through which 20% of the world’s oil is shipped, came as a 10-day truce between Israel and the
Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon appeared to hold.
Despite the escalation, Pakistani officials
say the United States and Iran are still moving closer to a deal ahead of the
April 22 ceasefire deadline.
The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people
in Iran, nearly 2,300 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf
Arab states. Thirteen U.S. service members have also been killed.
More
The
Latest: Iran says it has closed Hormuz again over US blockade
For
1917, when British diplomacy went wrong, scroll down to the last YouTube item.
Is
the Trump War over? Did Trump win “biggly” yet again? The US stock casinos prodded
by the US Treasury, central bank and stock promoting media think so. Buy the rumour, sell the fact?
A
Cuba invasion next, then China? Russia might be easier, but it’s land mass is
bigger.
Stock
Market on April 17: Dow rallies more than 850 points, S&P 500 tops 7,100
for first time to book fresh record high as investors cheer reopening of Strait
of Hormuz; stocks post big weekly gains
The
U.S. stock market rallied sharply Friday, after President Trump thanked Iran
for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh
record highs.
17
April 2026 at 4:34 pm New York Time
Oil
falls by 13% after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open
Updated: April
17, 2026 at 11:28AM EDT Published: April 17, 2026 at 9:37AM EDT
HOUSTON
-- Oil prices plunged by about 13 per cent on Friday after Iran’s foreign
minister said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz
was open for the remaining ceasefire period and U.S. President Donald Trump
said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again.
Brent
crude futures fell US$12.87, or 12.95 per cent, to $86.52 a barrel by 10:50
a.m. EDT, after falling to a session low of $86.09. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures were down $13.50, or 14.26 per cent, at $81.19 a
barrel, after touching $80.56.
Both
contracts were trading at their lowest since March 10, and set for their
largest daily declines since April 8.
Iranian
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open following the
agreement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.
“Comments
from Iran’s foreign minister indicate a de-escalation as long as the ceasefire
is in place, now we need to see if the number of tankers crossing the Strait
increases substantially,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
Progress
in negotiations
The
U.S. and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page
memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to an Axios reporter on
X.
Prices
had already fallen earlier in the session as possible further talks between the
United States and Iran over the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon
and Israel raised investors’ hopes the war in the Middle East could be nearing
an end.
Addressing
a sticking point in talks, Trump said Tehran had offered to not possess nuclear
weapons for more than 20 years.
“We’re
going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with
Iran,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.
Trump
also said on Friday that the United States has banned Israel from further
bombing in Lebanon, using an a harsher tone than usual with the longtime U.S.
ally.
Shortly
after the announcement that the strait was open, a U.S. official told Reuters
that a military blockade of Iran involving more than 10,000 personnel remains
in effect.
More
Oil
price tumbles after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open
Video
shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz as confusion persists over
whether sea lane is really open
Published
Fri, Apr 17 2026 6:26 PM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 17 2026 7:33 PM EDT
Oil
tankers are remaining cautious about sailing through the Strait of Hormuz after
Iran declared Friday that the sea lane is open to commercial ships, video
footage shows.
Oil
futures contracts tumbled Friday as the market interpreted the
announcement from Tehran as a major breakthrough that will ease the massive
disruption to global energy supplies. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude settled
down 12% Friday at $83.85 per barrel, while Brent crude futures finished
the day down 9%.
But
statements from Iranian officials and President Donald Trump have caused
confusion about whether the strait is really open or not.
Iran’s
Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi initially said the
strait was “completely
open” for the remainder of the ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel. But
Iranian media aligned with the Revolutionary Guard issued conditions for safe
passage that resemble the rules which Tehran has imposed for weeks now.
‘A
false dawn’
A
number of tankers and cargo ships did try to exit the strait Friday via the
route designated by Iran around Larak Island but they suddenly turned back,
said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.
“They’ve
clearly not been given approval to pass through,” Smith said.
Commercial
ships must follow a route designated by Tehran and coordinate with its
military, a source close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council told Tasnim News. Ships are not allowed to pass if they or their
cargoes are linked to hostile nations, according to the Tasnim report.
It
is “unclear whether there’s a dramatic change here,” said Tomer Raanan, a
maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “Iran still wants ships to
transit through its territorial waters.”
Trump,
meanwhile, said the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place. Tehran
threatened to close the strait if the blockade is not lifted.
This
all means that the strait remains functionally closed, said Matthew Wright,
senior freight analyst at Kpler. “It is a false dawn,” Wright said.
More
Video shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran declaring it open
Strait
of Hormuz Questions Linger Amid News Flurry
A
series of statements from Tehran and Washington has some companies playing it
safe.
April
17, 2026 at 11:00 PM GMT+1
Despite
a flurry of news from Tehran and Washington Friday indicating movement toward a
resolution of the war, the day ended with lingering questions about a path to
peace.
An
initial announcement by Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was
fully open, coming a day after Israel agreed to stop bombing Lebanon, was
subsequently qualified to exclude ships and cargoes linked to “hostile”
countries. Iran state media also reported the government would fully close the
strait again if the US didn’t end its blockade of Iranian shipping. In
Washington, President Donald Trump said the blockade would continue. Later, he
revealed plans for new peace talks and Iran’s nuclear program, albeit
without confirmation from Iran.
Despite
the confusion, oil and
European natural gas prices tumbled. Brent futures retreated 9.1% to settle
near $90 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate fell to roughly $84. European
benchmark gas prices fell as much as 10% to end the day near €39 ($46) a
megawatt-hour.
But
for companies with ships idling in the Persian Gulf, the maelstrom of messaging
left little to go on. Bloomberg spoke to over a dozen ship owners, agents,
brokers and traders, most of whom indicated they intended to take a
wait-and-see approach for now. The world’s largest international shipping
association said it believes shipping companies should consider avoiding the
area.
By
late Friday at least eight tankers inside the Gulf appeared to be heading
towards the strait, but for most the watchword appears to be caution. Some
shipowners said privately that they wouldn’t want to be the first to find out
whether the route really is safe and fully open. “Would you be the first
penguin off the ice floe to test the water?” one asked. —David
E. Rovella
Persian
Gulf Shipping Sticks With Caution: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
CNN’s
Richard Quest Reports Ships Aren’t Actually Sailing Through the Strait of
Hormuz Despite Trump’s Assurances
Alex Griffing Apr 17th, 2026, 3:42 pm
CNN’s Richard
Quest reported on Friday that ships are still not sailing through the
Strait of Hormuz despite President Donald Trump’s assurance
that the strait is open, which has led to dropping oil prices and soaring
markets.
“We
lead this hour with breaking news. President Trump telling
Axios that negotiators for the U.S. and Iran will likely meet again this
weekend, and that he expects a deal to end the war in a day or two. This is
happening as Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely
open for commercial shipping, though its Revolutionary Guard is now laying out
conditions for actually getting through,” began anchor Boris Sanchez,
adding:
President
Trump quickly touted the announcement of the strait’s reopening, adding that
Iran also committed to never again closing the vital waterway. The president
also said that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place
until a deal to end the war is complete.
Iranian
state media swiftly responded to that, warning that the strait will close again
if the blockade continues. Today, investors are cheering the news that this
critical passageway for 20 percent of the world’s oil is reopening. You see
stocks have jumped, oil prices have tumbled. CNN business editor-at-large
Richard Quest joins us now. So, Richard, when will shipping firms — I should
say — feel confident enough to send their vessels through the strait again?
“I
think they will only do that when they’ve received guarantees, however they’d
be given, from the Iranians that their ships are not at risk. We’ve heard from
Maersk, we’ve heard from Hapag-Lloyd, and their CEOs have all told us: yes,
we’re ready to sail, but only once it’s safe. And that is certainly not the
case at the moment,” Quest replied, adding:
Boris,
if you just look at the introduction that you’ve just given — the number of
“this has happened but dependent upon that,” “over there’s going to do this but
only if this happens,” “perhaps over that” — there are so many ifs, conditions,
and preconditions that nobody can say with any certainty that this deal, this
opening of the Hormuz Strait, will continue for any length of time.
We
haven’t actually seen the ships, by the way, going through. And so yes, the
market has given an extremely positive reaction because this is what they want
— this is exactly what they want — but whether these gains hold in the short to
medium term relies on actual evidence of it taking place.
Reuters’s
Chief National Security Reporter Phil Stewart added on
Friday afternoon, “Significant differences between Iran and the United States
remain to reach a deal aimed
at ending the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday, adding
that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is ‘conditional on U.S. adherence to the
terms of ceasefire.’”
Ships Not Transiting Strait of Hormuz Yet: CNN's Quest
A
US Navy Aircraft Carrier Is Circling Africa To Reach The Middle East
Apr
14, 2026, 09:21am EDT
The
United States Navy’s 10th and final Nimitz-class nuclear-powered
supercarrier, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), was spotted
off the coast of Namibia on Monday. The warship will sail around the southern
tip of the African continent, where she will cross from the Atlantic into the
Indian Ocean at the Cape of Good Hope.
The
aircraft carrier is believed to be en route to the Middle East, where she will
join the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), which has been
operating in the region since February. The Pentagon didn’t announce why
CVN-77, which departed Naval Station Norfolk in
late March,
is taking what is, in essence, the long way. The normal transit for the U.S.
Navy’s East Coast carriers heading to the Middle East is to pass through the
Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea, then through the Suez Canal
into the Red Sea.
The
answer in this case may be straightforward enough.
As
USNI News reported,
“The path around Africa allows the carrier and its escorts to avoid transiting
the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, which were both hubs of activity for the
Houthis in their drone and missile attacks on U.S. and commercial shipping in
2024 and 2025.”
The
USS George H.W. Bush may not be the only carrier headed to the
region.
The
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the newest and largest
operational supercarrier, departed Split, Croatia, last week and, as of Monday,
was operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. The U.S. Navy hasn’t indicated if
CVN-78 will transit the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, where she was operating
until the middle of last month.
Bab
el-Mandeb Is The Other Middle East Chokepoint
Much
of the world’s attention has been on the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the
Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, and where the U.S. has imposed a partial
blockade. However, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is another significant global
chokepoint.
Its
name, which means “Gate of Grief/Tears,” may seem especially fitting in the
modern era, but it has also been known for eons as a potential navigation
hazard due to its shallow waters, reefs, and unpredictable winds that can
create high waves capable of swamping small watercraft.
The
strait, just 20 miles (32 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point, is a vital
waterway, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is divided
into two channels, with the Western Dact-el-Mayun being approximately 16 miles
wide, and the Eastern Alexander’s Strait or Bab Iskender, which is much
shallower and only two miles wide. The former is used for large international
shipping vessels and tankers. It is the channel almost always employed by any
U.S. Navy warship, with the shallower channel mostly used today for local
traffic.
Despite
the dangers, more than 20,000 vessels had passed through the Bab el-Mandeb
Strait annually, accounting for roughly 12% of global trade. It was also a
major conduit for oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf region to Europe.
More
A US Navy Aircraft
Carrier Is Circling Africa To Reach The Middle East
Howard
Lutnick tells Canada ‘they suck’ and vows to wind back trade deal with US
Fraught
talks set to resume to end dispute that is costing America more than $1bn a
month
17
April 2026
US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has slammed Canada in the lead-up to tense
trade talks, calling the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement a “bad deal” that needs to
be reworked.
Lutnick
said US President Donald Trump thought the USMCA “needs to be reconsidered and
reimagined correctly” when new negotiations begin in July.
Speaking
in Washington at a Semafor media event, Lutnick said reports that Canada is
slowing down trade talks with the US “is like the worst strategy I’ve ever
heard. They suck.” Trump signed the 2020 trade deal during his first term to
replace Nafta.
“[Prime
Minister Mark] Carney has a problem with us,” he said.
A
commerce department spokesperson said Lutnick had been misquoted.
“Secretary
Lutnick, describing our unfair trade imbalance with Canada, explained how
Canada sucks off of our $30tn economy,” the spokesperson said.
Relations
between Canada and the US have deteriorated since Trump launched a trade war
shortly after retaking power in January 2025. The Canadian consumer boycott
launched in response is costing the US more than $1bn every month in lost goods
trade alone.
Trump
has called Canada the “51st state” of the US and imposed punitive tariffs on
its closest ally, sparking a quiet revolt that has included “made in Canada”
shop signs, “Canada is not for sale” hats and provincial governments cutting
contracts with Elon Musk’s Starlink.
As
a result, Canadian travel numbers have plummeted by a quarter while American
products, in particular alcohol, are no longer sold in most government-run
stores.
Kenneth
Frankel, president of the Canadian Council for the Americas, said US government
officials had expressed concerns over the boycotts but there was little they
could do about it.
“Canadian
consumers are choosing and feeling empowered by their choices,” he said, adding
that “it may irritate the US government, but provincial officials are
responding to popular sentiment”. Carney has led the charge with a series of
“Buy Canada” procurement policies aimed at reducing the country’s reliance on
US suppliers, in particular in defence.
US
goods exports to Canada totalled $336.5bn in 2025, down 3.8 per cent or
$13.4bn, from 2024, the US Trade Representative reported at the end of March.
Canada
is the top source of international visitors to the US, with 20.4mn visits in
2024, generating $20.5bn in spending, according to the US travel association.
But those numbers have been declining since Trump came to power.
The
Royal Bank of Canada reported this month that Canadians returning from the US
shrank 25 per cent year over year in 2025, with increased travel within Canada
as well as to non-US destinations.
More
Howard
Lutnick tells Canada ‘they suck’ and vows to wind back trade deal with US
In
other news.
Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold
The De-Escalatory Logic That Will Shape
Negotiations
Gideon Rose April 11, 2026
In the wake of agreeing to a two-week
cease-fire on April 7, both the United States and Iran are claiming victory in
their war. Each says the same thing: We held out and the other guy blinked
first. In fact, both decided to call it a draw. And some sort of outcome like
this was always likely, because the structure of the game constrained the
decision-making of the players—even players as idiosyncratic as U.S. President
Donald Trump and the leaders of the Islamic Republic.
Wars have three phases: an opening, a
middle game, and an endgame. As in chess, the opening involves deploying forces
and engaging the enemy. If that doesn’t produce a quick victory, the contest
moves into a middle game in which the two sides fight it out and try to get one
another to surrender. As the trends in battle become clear, eventually the
rough shape of a logical outcome emerges and the war enters its endgame, during
which the details of the final settlement are hammered out.
In Iran, the endgame began with Trump’s
threat of massive destruction if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, and it will
continue until the belligerents come to a stable agreement ending hostilities.
The cease-fire is likely to hold for the same reason it was agreed to in the
first place: both sides were hurting and would hurt even more if the war
escalated instead of ending.
The Trump
administration launched
the war confident that the conflict would be relatively quick and cheap and
that Iran wouldn’t be able or willing to hit back. Neither assumption proved
true, and as the fighting continued, the war started looking not like chess but
a deadly game called “the dollar auction,” which traps the players in
unprofitable escalation.
The concept is straightforward: Two
players bid for a prize of one dollar, with both agreeing to pay their last bid
whatever happens. At first, the players bid eagerly in hopes of making a
profit. As the price rises, the trap springs shut. The first player to bid $1
would come away even. But the other player would be out almost a dollar (his
last bid) and so has an incentive to bet a little more—say, $1.05—in hopes of
at least losing less (only five cents). Unfortunately, the same logic applies
to the first player, who now has an incentive to raise as well. From here on
in, the game has no internal stopping point; seemingly fruitless costs pile up
as the players bet more and more until they walk away or bleed out.
Wars often become dollar auctions because
the costs mount inexorably for both sides alike as the fighting continues. The
belligerents pay incrementally along the way, often far more in total than what
they initially thought the objective was worth. By late March, when it was
clear neither side would give in easily, the Iran war reached the inflection
point and slipped into the red for everybody.
More
Why the Cease-Fire
With Iran Will Hold | Foreign Affairs
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Commodities exports through Strait of Hormuz
collapse, except for Iran
16 April 2026
Iran was the top exporter
of commodities through the Strait of Hormuz in March, as shipments from other
countries fell off a cliff with Tehran's blockade of the vital waterway, data
by analytics firm Kpler showed.
Iran is usually the fifth
largest exporter of commodities -- goods such as crude oil and other petroleum
products, liquified natural gas (LNG), and dry bulk including fertilisers --
through the strait.
But shipments by Saudi
Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Qatar dropped by at least 96 percent
each in March compared to the previous 12 months' average, according to
Kpler.
Iran's shipments did also
fall -- but by only 26 percent, the data showed.
Tehran's forces choked
off the strait after Iran was attacked by the United States and Israel on
February 28. Since then it has allowed only a trickle of ships to pass through.
Around a fifth of the
world's crude oil and LNG normally passes through the strait, and Tehran's
paralysing of it ignited fears of a global energy crisis, with Asian countries
in particular impacted in recent weeks.
A US blockade of Iranian
ports has appeared to further curb traffic of the trade route already paralysed
by Iranian forces in recent days.
Bahrain and Kuwait did
not ship any commodities through the strait in March.
Qatar, normally a major
LNG supplier, exported just 45,000 tonnes of butane and propane through the
strait in March, and no LNG.
Crude oil made up 81
percent of Iran’s exports through the Strait of Hormuz last month, up from 62
percent on average from March 2025 to February 2026.
Commodities exports through Strait of Hormuz
collapse, except for Iran
VIDEO: World on brink of global recession if oil
price shock continues: IMF
World on brink of global recession if oil
price shock continues: IMF - ABC News
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
But what about the
fire risk?
Designs for world-first battery powered cruise ship revealed
16 April 2026
The technology and designs are available
to build the world’s first 100 per cent battery-powered cruise ship by 2031, and it could mean more space on the sun deck for passengers.
Speaking at the Seatrade Cruise Global
industry trade show, Meyer Werft – the German shipyard behind ships such
as Anthem of the Seas and Disney Destiny – presented concept designs for a fully battery-powered cruise ship known as “Project Vision”.
The proposed ship is 275 metres long,
accommodates 1,856 passengers and has a size of around 82,000 gross tonnes.
The battery system is supplied by Corvus
Energy from Norway and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a vessel by up
to 95 per cent.
Project Vision includes new ship designs
that do not have the traditional vertical shaft running through the ship for
exhaust treatment, or the funnel.
This could create an entirely new sun
deck design with unobstructed views for passengers.
Thomas Weigend, chief sales officer at
Meyer Werft, said: “If ordered this year, the shipyard could already deliver
the first fully battery powered vessel in 2031.”
Newer cruise ships are taking steps to
be more sustainable. Vessels such as P&O Cruises Arvia, MSC World Europa and Star Princess use liquefied natural gas (LNG).
VIking Libra, which
is launching in November 2026, can operate on hydrogen power for part of a
voyage.
Cruise lines that focus on the Norwegian
coast, such as Hurtigruten and Havila Voyages, are moving towards hydrogen power and have also completed voyages on
biofuels.
Havila Voyages’ ships can operate on
battery power for up to four hours.
Some cruise ports offer onshore power
for ships when docked so they can turn off their diesel engines.
Dover was named the UK’s first net-zero
port this week, which was attributed to initiatives such as using onsite solar
power and purchasing sustainably sourced hydrotreated vegetable oil to operate
machinery.
Designs for world-first battery powered cruise ship revealed
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’ s music diversion. A 1907 March. Approx. 5 minutes.
Florentiner
Marsch
Next,
fun with maps. Who really discovered Australia and when? Approx. 10 minutes.
The Map
Given to a King in 1542 That Shows a Continent Discovered in 1770
The Map Given to a King in 1542 That Shows a Continent Discovered in 1770
Finally, when British diplomacy went wrong. Ignore the misleading title, it’s far more complicated and nuanced. Approx. 27 minutes.
Britain Sold Palestine to Pay Its WWI Debt
— The Balfour Declaration Was a Banking Deal
Britain Sold Palestine to Pay Its WWI Debt — The Balfour Declaration Was a Banking Deal
A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it.
Albert Einstein
