US Jobs Day. Is China Dropping the Dollar? Tether Gets Gold.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1882 -13    Brent Crude 69.15

Spot Gold  5087                       Spot Silver 82.40

US 2 Year Yield 3.45 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.671 trillion US GDP 31.143 trillion.

"Gold is money. Everything else is credit." 

J.P. Morgan

With Japan’s stock casinos closed today and China getting ready to celebrate the Lunar New Year February 15-23, US retail sales disappointing, a delayed US jobs report due later today and a continued US military build up against Iran, who would want to be a US stock casino gambler today?

Will Trump use the Lunar New Year holiday and next Tuesday’s new moon as perfect timing for a US/Israeli attack on Iran?

Asia markets mostly rise as investors shrug off weak U.S. retail sales, assess China inflation

Published Tue, Feb 10 2026 7:01 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher Wednesday, continuing their rally despite AI fears and weak economic data spooking U.S. investors.

The U.S. December retail sales report showed that consumer spending was flat, missing the 0.4% monthly gain that economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting.

In Asia, investors are assessing the latest data coming out from China.

The country’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January from a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. That’s below economists’ forecast of 0.4% increase in a Reuters poll, a sign of continued deflationary pressure in the absence of stronger stimulus.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.43%.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.6%, on pace for a third day of gains, while the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.55% higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.13%, while the mainland CSI 300 lost 0.26%.

Japan’s markets are closed for a public holiday.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 lost 0.33%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.59% as AI fears took hold on Wall Street. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to post a closing record of 50,188.14.

The index had scored its third consecutive intraday record earlier in the day, a move that comes after it surpassed the 50,000 level for the first time ever last week.

Asia markets mostly rise as investors shrug off weak U.S. retail sales, assess China inflation

The AI threat wrecked software stocks. Now financial stocks look next with LPL closing 8% lower

Published Tue, Feb 10 2026 2:10 PM EST Updated Tue, Feb 10 2026 4:35 PM EST

Shares of financial services firms tanked Tuesday after the launch of a new tax planning tool powered by artificial intelligence that promises to do the work “within minutes.”

LPL Financial closed 8.31% lower after tumbling 11% in midday trading, while Charles Schwab fell 7.42% and Raymond James Financial lost 8.75% amid fears that AI will disrupt their industry next. Morgan Stanley dropped 2.4%.

Tech platform Altruist announced the offering within its AI platform, Hazel, and said it “helps advisors create fully personalized tax strategies for clients by reading and interpreting their 1040s, paystubs, account statements, meeting notes, emails, and custodial and CRM data, and applying deep tax logic to the analysis.”

It appears investors are worried about AI replacing some of the profitable offerings of established financial advisor firms, or at the very least, eating away at their margins.

We saw this earlier this year with the software stocks after Anthropic’s latest AI model appeared able to be allow businesses to do legal work and build programs for which they would otherwise pay an expensive license.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is down by 19% this year as shares of companies like ServiceNow and LegalZoom cratered.

The iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers and Securities ETF was off by 3.13% on Tuesday.

The AI threat wrecked software stocks. Now financial stocks look next with LPL closing 8% lower

In other news, Tether switches to gold. When things go wrong in Italy.

Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.

Alan Greenspan

Tether's gold stash tops $23 billion as buying outpaces nation states, Jefferies says

The Wall Street investment bank estimates the crypto firm holds at least 148 tonnes of physical gold holdings, joining top 30 global holders of bullion.

Feb 9, 2026, 7:28 a.m.

What to know:

• Tether bought an estimated 32 tonnes of physical gold in late 2025 and January 2026, Jefferies analysts said.
• The pace of buying trailed only Brazil and Poland, with firm's total holdings of now rival those of mid-sized sovereign nations, the report said.
• Tether held gold as reserves to back the value of its USDT stablecoin and gold-backed XAUT, while CEO Paolo Ardoino disclosed plans to shift up to 15% of the firm's investment portfolio to the bullion.

Tether, the crypto firm behind the world's most popular stablecoin USDT$0.9993, continued its gold hoarding over the past month, ranking within the top 30 global owners of the metal and surpassing several sovereign nations, according to a Sunday report from Wall Street investment bank Jefferies.

The stablecoin issuer’s gold reserves rose to an estimated 148 tonnes by Jan. 31, valued at roughly $23 billion, after buying about 26 tonnes in the last quarter of 2025 and adding another 6 tonnes in January, Jefferies analysts said.

Jefferies estimates show Tether’s quarterly gold buying exceeded that of most individual central banks, trailing only Poland and Brazil during that period.

At current levels, Tether’s holdings exceed those of countries such as Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, South Korea and Greece, placing the crypto firm among the top 30 holders of bullion worldwide and one of the largest non-sovereign buyers, the analysts said.

The 148 tonnes of bullion is held as reserves backing both its U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin USDT and its gold-backed token XAUT. But the company may hold more gold than disclosed, the report added.

Because Tether is privately held, the figures represent a minimum estimate of its total gold exposure, with undisclosed additional purchases likely made on the company’s balance sheet.

According to the USDT's fourth quarter attestation, some $17 billion of gold was in the reserves, amounting to 126 tonnes as of year-end gold prices.

XAUT's supply grew to 712,000 tokens worth $3.2 billion by the end of January, an increase of 6 tonnes of gold backing the tokens. CEO Paolo Ardoino told CoinDesk in an October interview that the gold-back enjoyed strong retail demand mainly from emerging markets.

The accumulation coincided with a record-breaking rally in gold, topping $5,000 per ounces last month and advancing nearly 50% since September. The driving forces behind the move is central bank demand, rising long-term government bond yields and efforts by some investors to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

The company's buying spree may continue, Jefferies noted. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company plans to allocate 10%-15% of its investment portfolio to physical gold, formalizing a strategy that has already played out over several years.

Tether's investment portfolio was valued at $20 billion as of the end of last year, CoinDesk reported.

Tether's gold stash tops $23 billion as buying outpaces nation states, Jefferies says

Who's Mariah Carey? Italian journalists to strike after commentator's blunders at opening ceremony

9 February 2026

Misidentifying Mariah Carey. Mistaking the Olympics' top boss for the Italian president’s daughter. Confusing the location of the opening ceremony. These gaffes at the Milan Cortina Winter Games by a top Italian broadcaster's commentator so thoroughly embarrassed its staff that they're going on strike.

Journalists from RaiSport announced on Monday that they were adopting protest measures — including strikes after the Games end — following RaiSport director Paolo Petrecca’s blunder-strewn commentary on Friday.

The channel is part of Rai, the Italian state-owned network that is broadcasting free-to-air coverage of its home Games.

A spokesperson for the broadcaster told The Associated Press that Petrecca has been removed from the commentary team for the Feb. 22 closing ceremony after a meeting on Monday afternoon with Rai CEO Giampaolo Rossi.

One blunder after another

First among Petrecca's many mistakes, he welcomed viewers to the “Stadio Olimpico” (In English, “Olympic Stadium”), the name of a massive arena in Rome. In fact, he was standing inside the iconic San Siro, known across Italy as the home to legendary soccer clubs Inter Milan and AC Milan.

“The show continues with Mariah Carey,” he said as the camera locked onto Italian actress Matilda De Angelis, who is known throughout the country. Carey is more than 25 years older than her, and a global superstar. (De Angelis has since posted photos of the ceremony to Instagram with the caption: “Please, call me Mariah.”)

And when Italian President Sergio Mattarella walked into the stadium with International Olympic Committee President Kirsty Coventry, Petrecca announced “Mattarella … and his daughter.”

The channel’s Comitato di Redazione — the internal union body that represents its journalists — issued a statement on Monday that all reporters and commentators would withhold their bylines until the end of the Winter Olympics, and that there would be three days of strikes after the Games.

“We have all been embarrassed, no one excluded, and through no fault of our own,” read the statement. “It is time to make our voices heard because we are facing the worst-ever figure of RaiSport in one of the most eagerly awaited events ever.”

Petrecca wasn't supposed to commentate on the opening ceremony, but decided to replace Auro Bulbarelli, who removed himself from the team after spoiling what was meant to be the surprise arrival of Mattarella aboard one of the city’s classic orange trams, driven by former motorcycle racer Valentino Rossi.

Among his other errors during Friday’s commentary was evidently failing to recognize Italy’s male and female volleyball teams. Both are world champions, and the women are also the reigning Olympic champions. Representatives from both carried the Olympic flame toward the end of the ceremony.

Petrecca named only one of the women, while referring to the remaining five champions as “other torchbearers.”

“Thanks to the commentators,” men’s captain Simone Giannelli commented on a post on Instagram, followed by three laughing-crying emojis.

Who's Mariah Carey? Italian journalists to strike after commentator's blunders at opening ceremony

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

This is what happens when you weaponise the dollar, putting into question the safety of using the dollar reserve standard.

China asks banks to curb US Treasury exposure as bond market jitters grow

Tuesday, February 10, 2026 | 09:17 AM IST

Treasuries extended losses after Chinese regulators were said to have advised the nation’s financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US government bonds due to concerns over market volatility.

Yields on benchmark Treasuries climbed as much as four basis points to 4.25 per cent . In London, the yield was up 2 basis points at 4.22 per cent and the rate on the 30-year bond rose three basis points to 4.88 per cent . The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2 per cent .

Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to pare their positions, according to sources. The officials didn’t give any specific target on size or timing and the directive doesn’t apply to China’s state holdings of Treasuries. The request may reinforce a recent global trend that has seen the likes of India and Brazil lower their exposure to the world’s biggest bond market amid growing doubts about the appeal of US assets. 

China-based investors’ holdings of Treasuries have halved to $682.6 billion, the lowest level since 2008, from a peak of $1.32 trillion reached in late 2013, according to official US data. Taken together with Chinese holdings of US agency bonds and equities, the Asian nation’s outstanding investment in American securities has remained relatively stable since late 2023. China is the third-largest foreign holder of Treasuries, after Japan and the UK.

China asks banks to curb US Treasury exposure as bond market jitters grow | World News - Business Standard

US Consumer Delinquencies at the Highest Since 2017

February 10, 2026 at 11:17 PM GMT

Delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt in the fourth quarter, the highest level since 2017, driven by rising defaults among low-income and young borrowers.

While the overall share of loans in some stage of default is near pre-pandemic averages, the rise in delinquencies among the lowest earners adds to evidence of an increasingly bifurcated economy, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit released Tuesday showed.

The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, with New York Fed researchers finding them particularly high in lower-income zip codes. Student-loan delinquencies, which have surged following the end of a pandemic pause in payment requirements and Donald Trump’s new effort to crack down on indebted student borrowers, have contributed to the rise in defaults.

The increased struggle among low-income and young borrowers unable to pay their loans is consistent with elevated unemployment rates among some parts of the US population. The jobless rate for workers 16 to 24 years old stood at 10.4% in December, near the highest levels since the depths of the pandemic.

US Delinquencies at Their Highest Since 2017: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Disappointing holiday season: December retail sales were flat, falling well short of estimate

Published Tue, Feb 10 2026 8:33 AM EST Updated Tue, Feb 10 2026 11:05 AM EST

Consumer activity slowed sharply for the December holiday shopping season amid a spate of rough weather, tariff impact and persistently higher inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

Retail sales were flat on the month following a 0.6% increase in November, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 0.4%. Excluding autos, sales also were unchanged, against the estimate for a 0.3% increase.

On an annual basis, sales rose 2.4%, a considerable step down from the 3.3% pace in November. Sales ex-autos were up 3.3% annually in December. A measure known as the “control group” of sales that excludes a number of items and feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations showed a 0.1% drop for the month.

The report puts a downbeat end to an otherwise solid year for shopping activity, with higher-end consumers spending briskly through much of 2025, though those on the lower end of the income spectrum were more cautious.

The shopping pace failed to keep up with inflation, as the consumer price index for December posted a 2.7% increase.

For December, multiple categories posted losses while only a few showed notable gains.

Miscellaneous retailers and furniture stores posted declines of 0.9%, while clothing and accessories stores were off 0.7%, and electronics and appliances saw a drop of 0.4%. Online outlets sales rose just 0.1%, while building materials and garden centers saw the strongest gain, up 1.2%.

“This is a K-shaped economy with strong spending from the top and much more cautious spending from middle- and lower-income consumers,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Retail sales were flat in December, driven by soft spending on autos, home furnishings, appliances and clothing. These items were hard hit by tariffs in 2025 and consumers shifted their spending elsewhere.”

More

Disappointing holiday season: December retail sales were flat, falling well short of estimate

There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be shaped into ingots, bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence.

Charles de Gaulle

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

‘Impossible’: Taiwan pushes back against Washington’s 40% chip supply relocation goal

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 11:05 PM EST

Taiwan has told Washington that its proposal to move 40% of the island’s semiconductor supply chain to the U.S. was “impossible,” Taipei’s top tariff trade negotiator said in an interview.

Speaking on a local television broadcast Sunday, Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun said she had made it clear to Washington that the country’s semiconductor ecosystem, built over decades, could not simply be relocated.

Taiwan’s international expansion, including its investments in the U.S., is predicated on the notion that the industry remains’ rooted in Taiwan and continues to expand domestic investments, she said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

The comments push back against onshoring targets outlined by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a CNBC interview in January, shortly after the latest U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement. Lutnick said he wanted 40% of Taiwan’s entire chip supply chain to shift to the U.S. within President Donald Trump’s ongoing term.

Under the deal, the Taiwanese government promised $250 billion in direct investments by its tech companies, with an additional $250 billion in credit provided for them to expand their production capacity in the U.S.

Washington on its part lowered levies on most goods from Taiwan to 15% from 20%, waived tariffs on generic drugs and ingredients, aircraft components and natural resources unavailable domestically, and promised higher quotas for tariff-free exports of Taiwanese chips to the U.S. 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world’s leading contract chipmaker and producer of the most advanced semiconductors, has already been working to better align with U.S. policy interests.

The company has committed more than $65 billion to U.S. manufacturing in recent years, with plans to expand that to $165 billion, as it produces chips for American clients Apple and Nvidia. The investments have also leveraged grants under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act.

But according to Lutnick, Washington is also looking for hundreds of other smaller companies in the chip supply chain to come to the U.S.

“We’re going to build giant semiconductor industrial parks in America ... This is a $500 billion down payment on let’s bring those semiconductors home,” he said in January, adding that Taiwan-based chip companies that don’t build in the U.S are likely to face a 100% tariff Trump has threatened against the sector.

However, semiconductor analysts broadly agree with Cheng’s assessment that Washington’s most ambitious onshoring plans are unfeasible, citing the difficulties of relocating such an advanced supply chain.

Analysts and industry officials point to Taiwan’s deeply integrated semiconductor ecosystem, U.S. labor shortages and elevated costs as some of the key obstacles.

More

 'Impossible': Taiwan pushes back against Washington’s 40% chip supply relocation goal

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent of the changing, ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence.

Ludwig von Mises

Iran War Next Weekend? Sooner?

Baltic Dry Index. 1895 -28    Brent Crude 68.86

Spot Gold  5062                      Spot Silver 81.31

US 2 Year Yield 3.48 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 38.667 trillion US GDP 31.141 trillion.

“Finance is the art of passing currency from hand to hand until it finally disappears

Robert Sarnoff

Is the Trump Department of War again using the cover of talks, as they did last June, for a surprise joint US Israeli attack on Iran, possibly as soon as the end of this week?

II don’t know either, but it certainly looks to me that the US War Department has another Venezuela or worse planned.

Time to fill up the car just in case.

U.S. urges ships to stay ‘as far as possible’ from Iran’s waters in Strait of Hormuz after boarding attempts

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 8:39 PM EST

U.S.-flagged ships have been advised to stay “as far as possible” from Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated.

In a notice issued Monday, the U.S. Maritime Administration said ship captains should decline permission for Iranian forces to board U.S. vessels.

Boarding attempts, including moves to force commercial vessels into Iranian waters through small boats and helicopters, have occured as recently as Feb. 3, the agency under the Department of Transportation said.

Should Iranian forces board a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel, crews were advised not to “forcibly resist the boarding party,” the notice said. It added that refraining from forcible resistance does not imply consent or agreement to that boarding.

The advisory recommended that ships transiting eastbound in the Strait of Hormuz stay close to the Omani side of the waterway.

The guidance followed a round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran held in Oman on Friday, centered on how to approach discussions over Tehran’s nuclear program. The meeting marked the first talks between the two countries since U.S. bombers struck three Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day war with Iran last June.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian described the talks as “a step forward,” while signaling they would be the opening stage of a longer diplomatic process rather than a path to a quick resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also told state media that the talks were a “good start.”

President Donald Trump said the Oman talks were “very good” and that more sessions were planned, even as he warned Iran that failure to reach a deal would carry “very steep” consequences for Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet Trump in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the U.S.-Iran talks. Israel, a close U.S. ally, has lobbied Washington to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, curb its ballistic missile program and end its support for militant groups in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, has returned to the spotlight this year after Trump warned of possible military action against Tehran.

About 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to data from market intelligence Kpler, accounting for nearly a third of global seaborne crude flows.

Any disruption to those flows would ripple through global energy markets. Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait during past confrontations, raising the prospect of higher oil prices.

U.S. urges ships to stay 'as far as possible' from Iran's waters in Strait of Hormuz

At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: 'Desert Storm Levels'

by Tyler Durden  Sunday, Feb 08, 2026 - 05:15 PM

An eye-opening and massive number of C-17 Globemaster military transport and cargo planes have been observed heading to Europe and the Middle East, in what some monitors have forewarned looks like the build-up to major war in Iran.

One regional watcher and pundit commented in response: "112 C-17s are in or on their way to the Middle East. Guys, that’s a lot. Like Desert Storm a lot. Stay tuned."

This as on Friday the prominent open source account Armchair Admiral and others used public flight tracking data to tally that the huge armada of US Air Force C-17s and counting are en route - a trend since mid-January.

"A total of 112 U.S. Air Force C-17's have now either arrived or are en route to the Middle East with a further 17-18 in-progress flights, a number of Royal Air Force logistics flights from RAF Marham to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, and movement on U.S. Air Force CORONETs," the source said.

C-17s are massive, and can deliver huge amounts of equipment or large numbers of troops in a single go. The US military lists some of the following key capabilities:

• Payload capacity of over 170,000 pounds
• Ability to operate on short, austere runways as small as 3,500 feet
• Intercontinental range, with in-flight refueling extending reach even further
• Rapid load/unload design to keep missions moving under pressure

More

At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: 'Desert Storm Levels' | ZeroHedge

Trump and Netanyahu to meet for Iran discussions

8 February 2026

The US president and Israel's prime minister will meet on Wednesday in Washington to discuss negotiations with Iran, according to Benjamin Netanyahu's office.

On Friday, Iranian and US officials met in Muscat, Oman, to hold indirect nuclear talks.

The talks came amid a continued American naval build-up near Iran, which Donald Trump has described as an "armada".

The US president has repeatedly threatened to take military action since the Iranian regime launched a bloody crackdown against protesters who took to the streets of cities across the country last month.

Both sides said more talks are expected to be held soon.

More

Trump and Netanyahu to meet for Iran discussions

In ordinary news.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 nears record 58,000 level as Asian stock markets mostly rise

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 6:55 PM EST

Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued its post-election rally and reached new highs on Tuesday, amid gains in the broader Asian markets.

The Japanese market continues to ride the “Takaichi trade” in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the Lower House.

The Nikkei 225 rose 2.77%, within striking distance of the 58,000 mark, while the Topix was up 2.07%, also pushing record highs.

Shares of Softbank Group Corp spiked as much as 11.95% on Tuesday after its subsidiary company upgraded its full-year forecasts for its financial year ending March 31. This follows a 6.3% gain on Monday.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.24%, paring some gains, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell into negative territory and was 1.16% lower.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 0.63%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was unchanged.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.16%, extending gains to a third day.

Overnight in the U.S., tech stocks powered the S&P 500 to back-to-back gains, with the broad-based index rising 0.47%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was marginally up to a record high of 50,135.87, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 nears record 58,000 level as Asian stock markets mostly rise

Gold and silver price swings are powering algo traders and machine-learning funds

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 1:04 AM EST

As gold and silver prices continue to seesaw, one corner of the hedge-fund industry is mining an opportunity from the huge swings in precious metals.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), also known as trend-following or managed futures funds, are computer-driven investment strategies that trade investment trends across different futures markets, including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Such strategies use a complex mix of statistical models, machine-learning algorithms, factors and other quantitative signals to identify — and bet on — upward and downward moves in markets, removing human emotion and biases from the investment process.

These systematic models pounced on the upward price momentum in precious metals in recent months, helping trend-following quant funds to recoup losses sustained in last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ turmoil.

And despite the sharp reversal in both gold and silver, performance for the sector has held up.

Societe Generale’s SG CTA Index, the main performance benchmark for the CTA sector, rose 5% in January. Meanwhile, the SG Trend Index, a daily performance tracker of the 10 biggest trend-following hedge funds, had advanced 6.9% by Jan. 29. That made January one of the best months for the index since 2000.

Both benchmarks remain up more than 4% year-to-date as of Feb. 4 — suggesting trend-following quant managers are successfully navigating wild swings in gold and silver.

‘Nimble and flexible’

So how are they doing it?

“CTAs are nimble and flexible,” said Andrew Beer, managing member at Dynamic Beta Investments. “The sharp reversal in gold and silver last week will cause many to derisk, but most will still bet on further moves upward,” Beer said. “CTAs were early, contrarian and right about gold and precious metals. Last Friday’s reversal was merely giving back some profits.”

Industry insiders explained how the assortment of signals and models underpinning the algorithms are helping the sector navigate precious metals’ wild ride. While short-term trading models — which have smaller trading windows and chase shorter-lived trends — are designed to enter and exit trades earlier, medium- and longer-term models are often more responsive to larger, more meaningful moves — such as the falling yen, the rise in gold, and the rotation into non-U.S. equities. That helps them avoid sharper hits from sell-offs and boost returns.

Jon Caplis, founder and CEO of hedge fund industry data provider PivotalPath, said medium-term trend followers, which dominate its Managed Futures Index, have generated consistent performance across several drivers, including long bets on precious metals.

“While gold and silver ended the month with a significant selloff, gold still finished the month up 9.3% while silver was up 11.2%,” Caplis told CNBC in an email. “In fact, most strategies have been reducing precious metals positions since September as volatility continued to increase, so benefited significantly on the way up while mitigating some of the losses during the sudden reversals.”

More

Gold and silver moves are powering machine-learning trading strategies

In other news.

Yen near 160, a record Nikkei 225, higher yields: What experts expect after Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 2:15 AM EST

A yen nearing 160 to the dollar, record Japanese equities and higher Japanese government bond yields could be on the table after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi romped to a landslide victory in the country’s snap election Sunday.

Takaichi led the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a supermajority in the Lower House, securing 316 seats in the party’s largest election victory since World War Two.

The result gives her the power to override any legislative veto from the Upper House, strengthening her ability to push her agenda through Japan’s legislature.

‘Takaichi Trade’ returns

Analysts said that her victory will lead to a revival of the so-called “Takaichi trade,” which typically involves a weaker yen, rising equities, and higher long-dated Japanese government bond yields. The trend reflects Takaichi’s dovish stance on monetary policy and expectations of expanded fiscal stimulus.

Some early signs of these emerged Monday. The benchmark Nikkei 225 soared past the 57,000 mark to a record high, while the broader Topix rose to an all-time peak of 3,825.67, exceeding Citi analysts’ pre-election expectations.

“The strong LDP win is warming the hearts of investors,” said Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC. “Equities, in particular, are celebrating the surprising election result, re-loading the ‘Takaichi-trade.’”
“The hope is that the strong majority will give the LDP more leeway in pursuing growth-friendly policies,” Neumann added.

This is echoed by Adrian Wong, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who said the victory would lead to proactive fiscal measures, such as the two-year consumption tax cut, to increased corporate investment and aggressive corporate reforms.

More

Yen near 160, record Nikkei 225, higher JGB yields: What experts expect after Sanae Takaichi's landslide

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

U.S. Treasury yields move higher as investors await busy week of economic data

Published Mon, Feb 9 2026 3:29 AM EST

U.S. Treasury yields were up to begin the week as investors looked ahead to a flurry of economic data, including the delayed January jobs report.

At 2:48 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up over 2 basis points to 4.231%, and the 30-year Treasury yield was 1 basis point higher at 4.874%. The 2-year Treasury note yield rose more than 1 basis point to 3.514%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Investors are expecting a flurry of economic data this week, much of which was delayed due to the partial U.S. government shutdown. This includes the delayed nonfarm payrolls report for January, which was initially scheduled for last Friday, but which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will now release on Wednesday morning.

The report is forecasted to show a gain of 60,000 jobs for the month, after a 50,000 increase in December, per economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.4%.

The January consumer price index reading, also delayed by the shutdown, is due out on Friday morning.

In addition to these reports, investors will await retail sales for December on Tuesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.

U.S. Treasury yields: investors await busy week of economic data

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Another day, another battery fire.

Fire department urges caution after lithium ion battery starts fire at London school

Sat, 7 February 2026 at 12:42 am GMT

The London Fire Department is warning the public of the dangers of lithium ion batteries after a student's backpack caught fire at Northridge Public School.

Fire crews responded to a call at the northeast London elementary school around midday on Feb. 2, and arrived to find there had been a fire on the second floor.

The cause had been a damaged portable phone charger, which a student had placed unattended in a backpack, according to Platoon Chief Jamie Britton.

"We're trying to put that safety message out there that if you do have a lithium battery, to not charge them in a backpack or leave them charging unattended," Britton said. "We do have instances of this quite often."

Britton said the battery caused a two-foot flame to come off the student's backpack, and the school's vice principal was able to put it out with a fire extinguisher before firefighters arrived.

No one was injured, but students were evacuated until crews confirmed the fire was out and the smoke was contained to the second floor of the building, he said.

"It's a good thing it was quickly noticed by the teacher, and it was a very quick evacuation by the staff and students."

Battery fires difficult to extinguish, says fire department

Lithium ion batteries have become commonplace in households. They're found in many rechargeable items, including phones, laptops, tablets, and portable chargers. They're also used in e-bikes and electric vehicles.

They become dangerous when they get damaged, overcharged or overheated and go into "thermal runaway," Britton said, a self-sustaining chain reaction in which the heat generated by the battery exceeds dissipation, leading to a fire that is difficult to extinguish.

Lithium ion batteries were blamed for an aggressive fire in December at a hobby shop in Norfolk County that was housing e-bikes and other battery-powered equipment. Twenty-five firefighters from four different stations were called to the scene to fight the blaze.

"It's just the simple fact that they do generate so much heat," Britton said. "It's just one of those things that we're going to have to keep a very close eye on while they're being charged."

If a battery has been impacted by a fall or through overcharging, Britton recommends not keeping it inside the home, putting it in a backback or leaving it anywhere unattended.

Even with a properly functioning battery, take care not to leave it charging on soft surfaces, such as a bed, couch or any other flammable surface, he added.

When getting rid of old or damaged batteries, refrain from putting them in the garbage, and instead dispose of them at one of London's four EnviroDepots, or community drop-off containers.

Fire department urges caution after lithium ion battery starts fire at London school - Yahoo News UK

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“It is not true that Congress spends money like a drunken sailor. Drunken sailors spend their own money. Congress spends our money.”

Dr. Art Laffer

Stocks, Precious Metals, Cryptos – Japan To The Rescue?

Baltic Dry Index. 1923 -13    Brent Crude 67.38

Spot Gold  5045                      Spot Silver 81.59

US 2 Year Yield 3.50 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.663 trillion US GDP 31.138 trillion.

A businessman cannot force you to buy his product; if he makes a mistake, he suffers the consequences; if he fails, he takes the loss. If bureaucrat makes a mistake, you suffer the consequences; if he fails, he passes the loss on to you.

Ayn Rand

Did Japan’s voters just rescue stocks and cryptos although probably with little direct effect on commodities? Precious metals are already rebounding due to demand as a hedge against US weaponised dollar debasement.

Japan’s “Margaret Thatcher” just won a landslide election victory, as our brave 21^st century world keeps moving to the right.

AFD in Germany and Reform in GB next?

Japan’s Nikkei 225 crosses 57,000 for the first time as Takaichi secures historic mandate

Published Sun, Feb 8 2026 6:50 PM EST

Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 5.6% to hit 57,337, while the Topix advanced over 3%, also notching a record high.

A decisive win for Takaichi could be the “best outcome” for markets over the medium term, as strategic investments and tax reform bolster equities, said Sree Kochugovindan, senior research economist at Aberdeen Investments.

Japanese stocks have hit several highs over the past few months, driven by the so-called “Takaichi trade” as markets expect the prime minister’s economic policies — seen as growth‑focused continuation of Abenomics — to boost equities, while weakening the yen as she pushes for a looser monetary policy and higher government spending.

The real estate sector was leading Nikkei gains, up over 7%, followed by healthcare and industrials sectors, data from LSEG showed as of 8.11 p.m. ET Sunday.

Japanese internet company CyberAgent Inc was the index’s top gainer, up more than 16%. Semiconductor equipment maker Advantest surged over 12%, followed by Sumitomo Electric Industries which posted gains of more than 11%.

The Japanese yen strengthened to 156.88 against the dollar. Yields on the 10-year Japanese government bonds rose nearly 4 basis points to 2.274%, while yields on 20-year JGBs added about 3 basis points to 3.158%.

Takaichi’s administration has gained stronger momentum to pursue a major shift toward proactive fiscal policy, backed by a clear public mandate, Crédit Agricole CIB echoed in a note following her victory.

U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated Takaichi on her victory in a TruthSocial post.

″She is a highly respected and very popular Leader. Sanae’s bold and wise decision to call for an Election paid off big time,” he wrote. “The wonderful people of Japan, who voted with such enthusiasm, will always have my strong support.”

The election follows political upheaval last year, when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House, and a Lower House defeat in 2024, which prompted then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign in September.

Other Asian markets also traded higher, with South Korea’s Kospi jumping 4.15%, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 2.97%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.65% in early trading.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.5%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 climbed 0.9%.

U.S. futures inched higher in early Asia hours.

Last Friday in the U.S., stocks surged as tech names recovered following several days of heavy selling in the sector and bitcoin rebounded following a rout that took the popular cryptocurrency down more than 50% from its high in October last year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1,206.95 points, or 2.47%, closing at 50,115.67. Friday marked the first time the Dow exceeded the 50,000 level. The S&P 500 jumped 1.97% and ended at 6,932.30, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.18% to 23,031.21. With those moves, the S&P 500 climbed back into the green for 2026.

Even with Friday’s pop, the S&P 500 posted a 0.1% decline for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 1.8% on the week. The 30-stock Dow rose 2.5% week to date, benefiting from some rotation into some economically cyclical stocks even as the overall market was weighed down by tech selling.

Japan's Nikkei 225 crosses 57,000 for the first time as Takaichi secures historic mandate

Global week ahead: Tech rotation puts European stocks back in play

Published Sun, Feb 8 2026 1:53 AM EST

When the U.S. sneezes, it seems Europe may not catch its cold in the same way it used to.

The Stoxx 600 is sitting close to record highs after recording its 7th positive week in eight, despite the tech-led devastation around it.

It’s been a different story across the pond. In a recent note, Deutsche Bank has started drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000, and says the recent sell-off in AI and software-exposed stocks is showing no signs of easing. This week’s declines leave the S&P 500 down almost 30 percent from their October 2025 peaks.

Broader European stocks meanwhile, are looking more resilient.

The spike in volatility comes at a sensitive time for the corporate world, with earnings season in full swing. The big-tech releases from last week did little to calm nerves stateside, while some of Europe’s biggest names are preparing to report this week.

Banking on M&A

CNBC’s Carolin Roth will breakdown UniCredit’s results in Milan on Monday, speaking with the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel. The lender remains a key M&A player in Europe, with its minority stakes in Commerzbank and Greece’s Alpha Bank returning around 20 percent returns on investment, according to the bank.

In Frankfurt, we will hear from rival Commerzbank’s CEO Bettina Orlopp on Wednesday, who told Squawk Box during the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that a deal with UniCredit is “not sensible” given the German bank’s high valuation.

Shares in financial stocks across Europe had a rollercoaster week, ending the week in the red.

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Global week ahead: Tech rotation puts European stocks back in play

Private credit worries resurface in $3 trillion market as AI pressures software firms

Published Sun, Feb 8 2026 11:41 PM EST

Private credit markets are facing fresh uncertainty as AI-driven tools start to pressure software companies, a major borrower group for private lenders.

The software industry came under renewed pressure last week after artificial intelligence firm Anthropic unveiled new AI tools, sparking a sell-off in software data provider shares.

The AI tools, developed by Anthropic, are designed to perform complex professional tasks that many software companies currently charge for, raising fresh concerns that AI could weaken traditional software business models.

Shares of asset managers with large private credit franchises tumbled this week as investors fretted about how AI could upend borrowers’ business models, pressure cash flows and ultimately lift default risks.

Ares Management fell over 12% last week, while Blue Owl Capital lost over 8%. KKR declined almost 10%. TPG lost about 7%. Apollo Global and BlackRock fell over 1% and 5%, respectively. For comparison, the S&P 500 declined by about 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.8%.

The moves bring to fore a growing unease around private credit market which now has to brace for the impact from AI-driven disruption to the software sector that is heavily exposed to buyouts financed with opaque, illiquid loans, according to market watchers.

“Enterprise software companies have been a favored sector for private credit lenders since 2020,” PitchBook wrote in a report last week following the fallout, adding that many of the largest-ever unitranche (two or more loans combined into one) loans, the favorite structure of the private credit market, have been to software and tech companies.

Software makes up a significant share of loans held by U.S. business development companies, accounting for about 17% of BDC investments by deal count, second only to commercial services, data from PitchBook showed.

That exposure could prove costly if AI adoption accelerates faster than borrowers can adapt. UBS Group has warned that, in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could climb to 13%, significantly higher than the stress projected for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, which UBS estimates could come to around 8% and 4%, respectively.

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Private credit's software blind spot sparks fresh fears for $3 trillion sector

In other news, more red flags.

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as Wall Street Gets Bad News About President Trump's Tariffs. History Says This Will Happen Next.

Sat, February 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM GMT·

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has essentially traded sideways in 2026, but history says the benchmark index could decline sharply in the coming months.

Several recent studies show President Trump's tariffs are siphoning money away from U.S. companies and consumers, and the S&P 500 just flashed a warning last seen during the dot-com crash in October 2000.

Recent studies suggest President Trump's tariffs will slow economic growth

President Trump has repeatedly argued that foreign exporters will pay his tariffs for the privilege of doing business in America. He went further last month in an editorial published by The Wall Street Journal, claiming foreign companies were "paying at least 80% of tariff costs." He even linked a study from the Harvard Business School to validate his claim.

What's the problem? The study Trump linked made no such claim. In fact, the researchers arrived at the opposite conclusion. The report states, "Our results suggest that U.S. consumers paid up to 43% of the tariff burden, with the rest absorbed by U.S. firms."

Those results roughly align with research from other institutions. Goldman Sachs economists report that U.S. companies and consumers collectively paid 84% of tariffs in October 2025. And they estimate consumers alone will bear 67% of the burden by July 2026.

Similarly, the Kiel Institute examined shipments totaling $4 trillion between January 2024 and November 2025, and the researchers concluded, "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden." The other 96% is passed along to U.S. importers and consumers.

Trump's tariffs are effectively a tax on consumption, which means they reduce buying power for consumers and raise input costs for businesses. That's a problem because consumer spending and business investments account for approximately 85% of GDP. By siphoning money away from consumers and businesses, tariffs threaten to slow economic growth.

The stock market sounds an alarm last witnessed during the dot-com crash

The S&P 500 recorded an average cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of 39.9 in January 2026, marking the fourth consecutive monthly reading above 39. Prior to that, the S&P 500 last recorded a monthly CAPE ratio over 39 during the dot-com crash in October 2000. The CAPE ratio is used to determine whether entire stock market indexes are overvalued, and multiples above 39 have historically correlated with dismal future returns.

The table shows the S&P 500's best, worst, and average performance over different time periods following a monthly CAPE reading above 39.

As shown, after recording a monthly CAPE ratio above 39, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 0% during the next six months. But the index has declined by an average of 4% in the next year, and it has declined by an average of 20% in the next two years.

The big picture

The S&P 500 currently trades at an expensive valuation that has historically portended steep losses. Such an outcome is arguably more likely in the current market environment because President Trump's tariffs threaten to slow economic growth.

Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results. Investors may tolerate higher valuation multiples because artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to drive higher earnings growth in the future. Indeed, S&P 500 companies reported an acceleration in earnings in 2025, and Wall Street expects another acceleration in 2026.

So, investors should not sell their portfolios in anticipation of a market drawdown. Instead, now is a good time to sell any stocks in which you lack conviction. It's also a good time to be more conservative when you put money into the market. Rather than investing every dollar, consider building a cash position in your portfolio.

Above all, focus on creating wealth over the long term rather than navigating volatility in the short term. The S&P 500 has returned 10.2% annually over the last 30 years, and there is no reason to believe the next 30 years will be much different.

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The stock market sounds an alarm as Wall Street gets bad news about President Trump's tariffs. History says this will happen next.

Bankruptcy filings hit 3-year high across U.S., with 1 in 15 cases filed in Texas

Filings in Travis and Bexar counties increased at nearly twice the pace of cases filed across the U.S. as inflation, high rates and tariffs took a toll.

Fri, February 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM GMT

Bankruptcy filings hit a three-year high in 2025 — and 1 of every 15 of those was in a Texas bankruptcy court. Across the state, more than 38,000 individuals and businesses filed for protection from creditors in 2025, up more than 20% from 31,520 a year earlier.

With Texas and the nation facing rising economic pressures tied to nagging inflation, the impact of tariffs and higher lending rates, bankruptcy filings across the U.S. jumped 11% last year to 574,315 from 517,308 in 2024, according to new data from the Federal Courts of the United States.

The pace of increase in Texas — and in Travis and Bexar counties — was roughly twice that. In Travis County, 905 people and businesses filed bankruptcy last year, up 24% from 728 cases in 2024. In Bexar County, courts saw 2,300 filings last year, up about 18% from 1,948 in 2024.

The annual increase was expected, as the rate of filings was seen rising in quarterly data releases through the year. But it comes after bankruptcy filings had fallen from a 2010 high of 1.6 million to a June 2022 low of 380,634. The rise has mainly corresponded with the aggressive increase in interest rates, which is pushing up the cost of borrowing and eating up cash flow of businesses and people with floating rates.

Though it was a three-year high, the 2025 total is still far below historical highs, according to courts data.

Through 2025, nearly 25,000 businesses filed for some form of bankruptcy protection, a 7.1% increase from the year before. 

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Bankruptcy filings hit 3-year high across U.S., with 1 in 15 cases filed in Texas

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Approx. 3 minutes.

U.S. Layoff Tsunami: 108K Jobs Axed in January, Worst Since '09 Crash | GRAVITAS

Bing Videos

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

A clever quantum trick brings practical quantum computers closer

Date:  February 6, 2026

Source:  ETH Zurich

Summary:  Quantum computers struggle because their qubits are incredibly easy to disrupt, especially during calculations. A new experiment shows how to perform quantum operations while continuously fixing errors, rather than pausing protection to compute. The team used a method called lattice surgery to split a protected qubit into two entangled ones without losing control. This breakthrough moves quantum machines closer to scaling up into something truly powerful.

Quantum computers have the potential to transform fields ranging from materials science to cryptography, but today they remain extremely difficult to build and operate. One of the biggest challenges comes from decoherence, a process that introduces errors into quantum systems. These errors usually take the form of bit flips or phase flips. A bit flip occurs when a qubit unexpectedly switches between '0' and '1'. A phase flip happens when the phase of a quantum superposition suddenly reverses, changing from positive to negative.

Because these changes can happen at random, even a single error can disrupt a calculation. Preventing that disruption is one of the central problems facing quantum engineers.

Protecting Information With Logical Qubits

To reduce these errors, researchers combine many physical qubits into a single logical qubit and apply continuous error correction. This strategy helps preserve quantum information over time, making storage relatively stable. But storing information is only part of the task. To run a quantum algorithm, qubits must be actively manipulated using quantum gates, which are the basic operations that power quantum computation.

Applying those operations without introducing new errors has proven far more difficult than simply keeping qubits stable at rest.

A New Way to Compute While Fixing Errors

A team led by D-PHYS Professor Andreas Wallraff has now demonstrated a method that tackles this problem directly. Working with researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) and theorists led by Professor Markus Müller at RWTH Aachen University and Forschungszentrum Jülich, the group showed how to perform quantum operations between superconducting logical qubits while correcting errors at the same time. Their findings were recently published in Nature Physics.

The work marks an important advance toward fault tolerant quantum computing, where calculations can proceed without being derailed by constant errors.

More

A clever quantum trick brings practical quantum computers closer | ScienceDaily

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism - by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide.

Ayn Rand