Friday, 6 March 2026

War Day Seven. India Takes A Hit. Tariff Refunds Coming.

Baltic Dry Index. 2138 -95     Brent Crude 84.69

Spot Gold  5135                        Spot Silver 84.44

US 2 Year Yield 3.57 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.847 trillion

US GDP 31.211 trillion.

Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.

George Soros

Day seven of the war to collapse the global economy. As the great war error escalates a rapidly growing crisis in oil and LNG supply, a desperate Trump team is now turning to Russian oil supply.

For now, this is called “temporary.”  But unless Kuwaiti, southern Iraq, Saudi, UAE and Iranian crude oil supply resumes almost immediately, plus LNG shipments from Qatar, Russian oil and gas supply will become permanent.

The Great War Error of 2026, in just about a week, is already threatening to crash the fiat currency global economy, private credit, supply chains, food production and supply, airlines and tourism, and if it continues for much longer, the Dollar Reserve Standard.

Asia markets trade mixed after Wall Street losses, oil prices dip after Thursday surge

Published Thu, Mar 5 2026 6:46 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday, tracking Wall Street losses overnight, as the Iran conflict sends energy prices higher.

Overnight, oil prices broke through the $80 per barrel mark, although Brent futures dipped slightly Friday to trade at $84.64. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, which saw its biggest single day gain since May 2020, was last down 1.12% at $80.12, paring some losses.

More uncertainty was also seen on the global trade front after New York Attorney General Letitia James and the top prosecutors of 23 other states once again sued to block President Donald Trump’s global tariff regime.

This comes after the U.S. Court of International Trade had ruled Thursday that companies were entitled to tariff refunds from Trump’s duties that were struck down by the Supreme Court.

South Korea’s Kospi tumbled once again, falling 1.24%, after marking its best day since 2008 in the prior session. The small-cap Kosdaq, however, extended gains to rise 1.86%. Kosdaq 150 futures spiked 6%, triggering a buy trading curb for five minutes.

Defense heavyweight LIG Nex1 was up more than 12%, and was one of the top Kospi gainers, after South Korean media reported its air defense systems were used to successfully intercept Iranian missiles launched at the United Arab Emirates.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.14%, reversing earlier losses, while the Topix was marginally down.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.12%, dragged by basic materials stocks.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.84%, extending gains from Thursday, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 was up 0.2%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes fell, with the stock sell-off led by BoeingCaterpillar and other names that stand to lose the most if the global economy slows.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.61%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.56%. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.26%.

Asia markets mixed as Iran conflict sends oil prices soaring

CNBC Daily Open: Oil surges as Iran war enters seventh day

Published Thu, Mar 5 2026 8:08 PM EST

What you need to know today

Crude oil crossed $80 per barrel Thursday, as the Iran war enters its seventh day and continues disrupting global fuel supplies. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that his country was “not asking for a ceasefire” from the U.S. and Israel, while President Donald Trump said that his administration will turn its focus to Cuba after the U.S. military operations in Iran are finished.

Besides energy disruption, the turmoil in the Middle East has shattered Dubai’s status as a global wealth hub, as the rich scramble to escape the largely tax-free haven. Over the past week, UAE has seen projectiles hit tourist and civilian spaces, including the 5-star Fairmont The Palm Hotel and the Dubai airport. 

Over in the U.S., the Anthropic-OpenAI rivalry continues. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman took swipes at rival Anthropic on Thursday and said he thinks it’s “bad for society” if companies start abandoning their commitment to the democratic process because “some people don’t like the person or people currently in charge.” That comes after the Department of Defense clashed with Anthropic in recent weeks over how the agency can use its AI models.

Adding another layer of uncertainty to markets, Trump’s tariffs face a new legal battle after New York Attorney General Letitia James and the top prosecutors of 23 other states once again sued to block his global tariff regime, just days after a landmark Supreme Court decision struck down his previous effort.

And finally...

Iran’s Shahed drone: How ‘the poor man’s cruise missile’ is shaping Tehran’s retaliation

The Shahed-136 ‘kamikaze’ drone has become central to Iran’s retaliation strategy against the U.S. and its regional allies, with thousands unleashed so far.

First designed in Iran, the weapon has already become a fixture of modern warfare, with Tehran’s strategic partner, Russia, utilizing the technology in its years-long battle with Ukraine.

Though drone seems unremarkable compared with cutting-edge weapon technologies and the majority have been struck down by American allies, many Shaheds have still managed to hit their targets.

“The Shahed‑136, among other unmanned aerial systems, has allowed states like Russia and Iran a cheap way to impose disproportionate costs,” an analyst said.

— Dylan Butts

CNBC Daily Open: Oil surges as Iran war enters seventh day

U.S. offers India a 30-day waiver for buying Russian oil as Iran war deepens energy supply worries

Published Thu, Mar 5 2026 11:29 PM EST

After slapping 25% “penalty” tariffs on India for buying Russian crude — revoked last month — the U.S. on Thursday issued a 30-day waiver to New Delhi for purchasing crude from Moscow as the Iran war upends global supplies.

The West Texas Intermediate oil surged 8.51%, or $6.35, to close at $81.01 per barrel on Thursday in the biggest single day gain since May 2020. Global benchmark Brent rose 4.93%, or $4.01, to settle at $85.41 per barrel.

The waiver on purchasing Russian oil will help ease supply worries globally, as India is the world’s fourth biggest refiner and and fifth largest exporter of petroleum products. Brent and WTI crude fell over 1% on Friday, and were last trading at $84.42 and $79.92 per barrel, respectively.

New Delhi, also the world’s third largest oil importer, had been replacing Russian oil purchases with supply from Middle East, experts said, but with the conflict affecting energy supplies from the Gulf countries, it is starting to shore up energy from Moscow.

“I’ve heard that Indian refiners have been actively seeking prompt Russian crude supplies since last weekend,” said Muyu Xu, senior research analyst for crude at energy data tracker Kpler, adding that based on “market chatter,” New Delhi is likely to have bought up to 6-8 million barrels of Russian oil over the past 2–3 days.  

This “short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit” to Russia as it only allows transactions of oil already stranded at sea, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessant said in a post on X.

The U.S. government is taking steps to curb rising oil prices, including offering political risk insurance for tankers transiting the Gulf. U.S. crude prices have climbed about 20% this week on the back of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

“Further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent and ... in the long-term, the actions we’re taking will dramatically increase the stability of the region and oil prices,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday.

“It [the waiver] is a relief valve, in view of the loss of nearly 20 million barrel per day of crude from the Gulf producers,” said Vandana Hari, CEO of energy research firm Vanda Insights, adding that the 30-day waiver was “not nearly enough” and Washington continues to put “band aids on a gunshot wound.”

Hari expects Brent crude to continue “creeping higher than the $80s” as she feels chances of the Hormuz blockade being lifted quickly are “extremely dim.” The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway used for 20% of global oil flows, remains at a standstill following Iranian warnings and surging insurance costs for shippers.

Our data shows that no laden crude tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since last weekend, including vessels that may be bound for India,” said Xu.

Impact on India

India currently has “access to about 100 million barrels,” enough to cover up to 45 days of crude demand, Prateek Pandey, head of APAC oil and gas research at energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, told CNBC’s “Inside India” on Thursday.

Pandey said that Indian refineries will not be impacted over the next three to four weeks, but “there will be concerns,” if the disruption in Middle East continues beyond that.

Sourcing from alternate destinations such as Venezuela poses challenges as these cargoes take almost a month to reach India, he said.

More

U.S. offers India a 30-day waiver for Russian oil amid supply worries

In other news, in the Israeli war on Iran that dragged in Trump, collateral damage spreads.

Russia blames Ukrainian naval drones as tanker sinks in Mediterranean

4 March 2026

A Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker has sunk in the Mediterranean between Libya and Malta after it was hit by explosions and a fire, Libyan port officials have said.

Russia accused Ukraine of targeting the Arctic Metagaz with "uncrewed sea drones" launched from the Libyan coast.

Ukraine's SBU state security service has not commented on the allegation and the Libyan port authority said the cause of the fire was unclear.

The Libyans said the tanker was carrying about 62,000 tonnes of LNG before the blasts and that it sank about 130 nautical miles (240km) north of the Libyan port of Sirte.

Russia's transport ministry said 30 Russians were aboard the Arctic Metagaz. Maltese Home Affairs Minister Byron Camilleri said they were all found "safe and sound in a lifeboat" during a rescue operation by Malta's armed forces.

Unverified night-time footage has emerged purportedly showing the ship ablaze after the attack, which occurred on Tuesday.

Serhii Sternenko, a popular blogger and adviser to Ukraine's defence minister, posted pictures on Wednesday morning of what he said was the tanker in the Mediterranean, which had a "serious hole in the engine room compartment and is beyond repair".

He did not elaborate where the pictures came from and they have not been independently verified.

"This is a terrorist attack," Russia's Vladimir Putin told state TV. "This isn't the first time we've encountered something like this."

Russia's transport ministry called it "an act of international terrorism and maritime piracy", singling out the European Union for complicity.

Moscow said the Arctic Metagaz - which had been en route from Russia's northern port of Murmansk - was carrying cargo cleared in accordance with international rules.

The tanker was apparently heading for Port Said in Egypt and is considered part of Russia's so-called shadow fleet. It has been widely sanctioned by Western countries.

The ministry provided no evidence to back up its claim that the tanker was attacked by Ukrainian sea drones, though there were earlier unconfirmed reports of attacks from the Libyan coast.

The SBU told BBC Ukraine it was not commenting on "the situation with the tanker in the Mediterranean", although a Ukrainian government-linked social media account, United24, teased that the drones were "Definitely. Maybe" not part of the Ukrainian fleet.

Marine tracking data indicated that the day before the fire, the tanker had last reported that it was sailing off the south-east coast of Malta.

It had sailed some considerable distance by the time the fire was reported and it is assumed the crew deactivated its automatic identification system.

Russia has deployed a surging number of vessels to transport oil and gas in an attempt to avoid international sanctions, which are aimed at slashing revenues that have been critical for funding Moscow's war in Ukraine.

Its shadow fleet is largely made up of aged tankers, many with obscure ownership or insurance.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, Kyiv has carried out a number of attacks on such vessels using naval drones.

However, nearly all of such strikes have been in the Black Sea, which Russia and Ukraine both border.

Russia blames Ukrainian naval drones as tanker sinks in Mediterranean - BBC News

Globalisation is under threat from Iran war – and Britain is uniquely vulnerable

5 March 2026

In retaliation for the US-Israeli missile attacks, Iran has launched what amounts to all-out economic warfare. Should the conflict continue even for another week, its impacts will start to be felt around the world as the third price surge since the pandemic washes through global markets.

For Britain, a further turn of the screw on living standards arrives just as political instability mounts at home, with the Labour and Conservative parties facing existential challenges to their left and right.

Keir Starmer’s half-cocked response to war reflects a deeper, strategic problem for the UK: an economy built over decades for a globalised world cannot fit into a world where globalisation is falling apart.

The creation of a tightly woven, world-spanning economy has also created points of huge stress and tension, where the flows of manufactured goods, people and raw materials that sustain it must pass through the narrow spaces of our globe.

These include the 40-mile-wide Malacca strait, a channel for 80% of China’s imported oil flows; the Panama canal, only 91 metres at its narrowest point; the Bab el-Mandeb strait, between Yemen and Eritrea, through which 40% of trade between Asia and Europe passes; and the strait of Hormuz, a route for one-fifth of the world’s oil.

Accidental, natural or intended, the effect of a blockage on any of these channels is the same. When, in 2024, the Panama canal was restricted by drought and the Houthis were blockading Bab el-Mandeb, the combined effect was to contribute 0.6 percentage points, or about one fifth of the global inflation over the year as shipping companies diverted away from both routes. The climate crisis has become a force multiplier for asymmetric warfare: extreme weather, such as central America’s multi-year drought, amplifies the disruptive potential of choke-point closures elsewhere.

Today, the straits of Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz, narrow apertures either side of the Arabian peninsula, are in effect under a blockade. But now it is the other great, global system of the world economy – its financial network – that multiplies the pure military threat. The decision by major insurers to cancel war-risk cover across the Persian Gulf in effect closes both straits to shipping. Washington, scrambling for a response, has pledged to provide its own insurance, plus navy escorts – but both could take weeks to organise.

More

Globalisation is under threat from Iran war – and Britain is uniquely vulnerable

Inside India newsletter: Energy, airlines and now over $50 billion in remittances to India at risk as Middle East conflict deepens

Published Wed, Mar 4 2026 11:06 PM EST

The big story

India can’t seem to escape from the fallout of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. A significant share of the country’s energy imports risk disruptions and its aviation sector is staring at higher costs due to airspace restrictions.

But there’s another multibillion-dollar worry that the country will need to contend with: remittances.

India is the largest recipient of remittances globally and they account for nearly 3.5% of the GDP — that’s higher than the share of exports to the U.S. at 2% of the economy. More than 9 million Indians reside in the Middle East and the money they send home plays a major role in shoring up India’s finances, helping cut its current account deficit.

The Indian diaspora in the Gulf countries contributes nearly 38% to India’s total remittance inflows, according to a Citi report. Based on the inflows of $135.4 billion in financial year 2025, the share of gulf countries is to the tune of $51.4 billion.

To put it in perspective: India’s total trade surplus with the U.S. was $58.2 billion in 2025.

According to experts, Indian workers in the Gulf countries are mostly employed in oil services, construction, hospitality and retail sectors, industries particularly vulnerable to the disruption caused by Iranian attacks.

“A sharp decline [in remittance inflows] – particularly if combined with higher oil prices due to the conflict – would worsen India’s external position and could put some pressure on the rupee,” said Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

In recent years, India’s remittances have exceeded its foreign direct investment flows, with those from the UAE alone contributing nearly one-fifth of the flows, second only to the U.S (27.7%).

Collateral damage

The good news, experts tell me, is that only a prolonged conflict in the Middle East will dent India’s remittance flows enough to impact the economy. The bad news is that no one is certain if this conflict will be a short one.

Hermann told me that a “moderate and temporary disruption” is manageable but “a bigger risk” would be if the conflict leads to a slowdown in construction and services activity in the Gulf, affecting Indian migrant workers.

The U.S.-Iran war is in its sixth day and is spreading into the wider region with the U.S. embassies in Riyadh and Kuwait also coming under attack. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has vowed that the United States and Israel’s offensive against Iran will increase in its scope and intensity.

Deepa Kumar, head of Asia-Pacific country risk and co-lead of India research chapter at S&P told me that if the conflict lasts beyond six months, it will have a material impact on the Indian economy.

In case of a contained conflict “there could be some initial shocks to remittances” from the Middle East but that will be limited to spot worker contracts, Kumar said. Over the next few days her team will start assessing how a prolonged conflict could affect the economy.

Chances of the hostilities lasting longer have risen as both sides intensify their attacks. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said the military operation in Iran could go on “far longer” than the estimated four to five weeks.

Citi in its note on Monday said that if the conflict lasts long, remittances would be “negatively impacted” as income opportunities of the Indian diaspora will get affected. In the short run, however, “there could be a perverse positive impact if ‘risk aversion’ leads to more repatriation,” the note said.

More

Inside India newsletter: Energy, airlines and now over $50 billion in remittances to India at risk as Middle East conflict deepens

Asia scrambles for LNG as Qatar halts output due to Iran war

Tue, 3 March 2026 at 9:50 am GMT

SINGAPORE, March 3 (Reuters) - India began rationing natural gas on Tuesday while countries around Asia looked to the spot market to replace supplies, activated emergency plans and prepared to step up production, ‌as the conflict in the Middle East curtailed shipping and halted Qatari output.

Government officials and company executives in Japan, ‌Taiwan, Bangladesh and Pakistan said they did not expect an immediate impact as some cargoes due this month had already arrived, but they would diversify their import sources ​and buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the spot market if the war drags on.

LNG buyers in Asia account for more than 80% of shipments from Qatar, the world's No. 2 producer after the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

In India, gas firms on Tuesday reduced supplies to companies in anticipation of tighter supply from the Middle East after Qatar halted production, Reuters reported.

Taiwan, which generates more than ‌40% of its electricity from LNG and imports ⁠a third of its supply from Qatar, will buy more from the U.S. and could coordinate with South Korea and Japan if a shipping blockade stretches on, its economy ministry said on Tuesday.

"We will continue ⁠moving in the direction we have been pursuing all along: obtaining sufficient quantities of energy through diversified markets," Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said, adding that an "emergency response mechanism" had been activated to deal with the Qatari supply disruption.

Japan, which is the world's No. 2 LNG importer and sources ​4% ​of its gas from Qatar, could tap the spot market or have ​utilities buy from each other if needed, its trade ‌minister said.

SOUTH ASIA LNG SUPPLY

In Bangladesh and Pakistan, industry officials likened the situation to the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when LNG prices spiked and supply was disrupted, causing prolonged power outages.

While Pakistan's significant solar generation will prevent daytime power cuts, Bangladesh is at risk of shortages and may need to increase coal and power imports from India, industry experts said.

A senior official at state-run Petrobangla said a prolonged disruption would pressure power generation and industrial output as the peak summer season approaches.

So far, four out of ‌Bangladesh's nine scheduled Qatari cargoes for March have crossed through the Strait of ​Hormuz, the official said, adding that Dhaka may seek to acquire spot cargoes.

"The ​real question is where prices will go," the executive ​said. "Prices could rise manyfold and frankly, we simply cannot afford that."

Benchmark Asian LNG prices rose as much as ‌nearly 40% on Monday, while benchmark European wholesale gas ​prices closed around 35% to 40% ​higher.

More

Asia scrambles for LNG as Qatar halts output due to Iran war

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Morgan Stanley To Lay Off Thousands Of Employees: Here Are Reasons Why

Updated Wed, March 4, 2026 at 10:39 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley is laying off approximately 2,500 employees, representing about three percent of its global workforce, according to an exclusive report by The Wall Street Journal.

The layoffs will impact employees across the multinational company's three major divisions: investment banking and trading, wealth management, and investment management, The Journal reported on Wednesday, March 4.

Reasons Behind Cuts

While Morgan Stanley reported strong financial performance in 2025, the job cuts are part of a broader effort to streamline operations and adapt to changing market conditions.

According to The Journal, the reductions are driven by:

·         Shifting Priorities: The bank is reallocating resources to high-growth areas.

·         Performance Reviews: Some layoffs are tied to individual job performance.

·         Operational Efficiency: The bank is managing costs amid economic pressures.

·         AI, Automation: Increased use of artificial intelligence is automating routine tasks, reducing the need for certain roles.

Broader Industry Trends

Morgan Stanley’s move aligns with a wave of layoffs across Wall Street as major banks adjust to economic uncertainty and technological advancements. Competitors like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have also announced workforce reductions in recent months.

This is not the first time Morgan Stanley has cut jobs. In March 2025, the bank laid off approximately 2,000 employees as part of a similar cost-cutting initiative.

Impact On Employees

Morgan Stanley has not disclosed specific details about severance packages or support for affected workers.

Morgan Stanley’s workforce totaled approximately 80,000 employees at the end of 2025.

Morgan Stanley To Lay Off Thousands Of Employees: Here Are Reasons Why

Judge orders U.S. Customs to process refunds on illegal Trump tariffs

Published Wed, Mar 4 2026 10:34 PM EST

A U.S. trade court judge on Wednesday ordered the government to begin paying potentially billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid tariffs that the Supreme Court said last month were collected illegally.

Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan ordered the government to finalize the cost of bringing millions of shipments into the U.S. without assessing a tariff, according to a court filing. He ordered the refunds to be made with interest.

When merchandise is brought into the United States, an importer pays an estimated amount at entry which is then finalized around 314 days later, a process known as liquidation. Eaton directed Customs and Border Protection to finalize the entry cost on shipments without the tariff being assessed, resulting in a refund.

“Customs knows how to do this,” he told a court hearing on Wednesday, according to a recording on the court’s website. He said the agency should be able to program its system to issue refunds, which are regularly issued when an importer overpays on an estimated duty.

“They do it every day. They liquidate entries and make refunds,” he said.

Eaton also set a hearing for Friday in which he asked for updates on CBP’s refund plans. He said in his order that the court’s chief judge indicated that Eaton is the only judge who will hear tariff refund cases.

Customs and Border Protection has said in court filings that the task of finalizing entry costs without assessing a tariff was “unprecedented” in scale and could require manual review of more than 70 million entries. The agency had said in other court filings it wanted up to four months to assess its options for paying refunds.

CBP did not respond to a request for comment.

More

Judge orders U.S. Customs to process refunds on illegal Trump tariffs

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Revera reaches FID on 400MWh Scotland BESS; GE Vernova providing BESS, Danske to optimise

Revera and Danske have signed a ten-year optimising agreement for the Windyhill battery energy storage system (BESS), which is located just outside Glasgow, Scotland. It is a 10-year revenue floor covering 100% project capacity.

March 2, 2026

Carlyle-backed owner-operator Revera Energy has reached financial close on its 200MW/400MWh Windyhill BESS in Scotland, enlisting energy trader Danske Commodities to optimise it and GE Vernova to supply the batteries. 

The announcements came just days after we discussed the evolution of floors and tolls with a Danske Commodities executive at the Energy Storage Summit 2026. 

Revera and the trading firm have signed a ten-year optimising agreement for the Windyhill battery energy storage system (BESS), which is located just outside Glasgow, Scotland. It is a revenue floor covering 100% project capacity. 

The operator has issued a notice-to-proceed (NTP) to its technology and construction partners, with construction to commence immediately and COD expected in Q1 2028.

BESS and long-term maintenance services will be provided by GE Vernova, the energy technology and services firm spun out of electronics giant General Electric (GE) in 2024. 

Balance of Plant (BoP) works will be provided by G2 Energy, the EPC and grid connection specialist which ceased trading in 2023 before being acquired by outsourcing giant Mitie the following year

It is Danske's biggest BESS asset yet. Danske Commodities last year secured an optimisation deal for a 200MWh co-located BESS at the Kvosted solar and storage plant in Denmark with owner European Energy, then its biggest so far. 

Windyhill is the first project to launch construction in a portfolio (spanning UK and Australia) for which Revera secured a £110 million credit facility last month

More

Revera reaches FID on 400MWh Scotland BESS

NESO awards no contracts to battery storage in Stability Market Round 2

In Stability Market Round 2, all BESS submissions failed at the technical assessment stage, while synchronous condensers and open cycle gas turbines took 7.3 GVAs of contracts, market intelligence and analytics firm Modo Energy said.

March 2, 2026

The UK National Energy System Operator (NESO) awarded no contracts to battery storage projects in the Stability Market Round 2, despite the recent Stability Pathfinder which proved the technology’s capabilities in grid-forming and system stability. 

In Stability Market Round 2, all battery energy storage system (BESS) submissions failed at the technical assessment stage, while synchronous condensers and open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) took 7.3 GVAs of contracts, market intelligence and analytics firm Modo Energy said. 

Some of the failed batteries are already operational with active NESO Stability Pathfinder contracts, added Modo Energy analyst Zachary Jennings, posting the company’s analysis on LinkedIn. 

That is despite NESO having spent £323 million on its Stability Pathfinder programme which set out to show how newer technologies like BESS could provide inertia and other grid stability services which have historically been provided by gas plants. The Stability Market is the regular, long-term procurement mechanism for such stability services. 

Owner-operator ZenobÄ“ has been the leading player in deploying BESS within the Pathfinder scheme, with two projects online: the Blackhillock and Kilmarnock South projects

Comments from industry sources on Modo’s post showed frustration and concern at the lack of BESS awards despite the Pathfinder programme. 

Multiple commenters suggested NESO favours synchronous/thermal assets over proven zero-carbon alternatives, with eligibility criteria appearing ‘written around incumbents rather than outcomes’, according to one. 

However, one commenter said that NESO was being ‘reassuringly conservative’ when it came to procuring inertia, considering how critical the services are to a stable grid. 

More

NESO gives no contracts to batteries in Stability Market Round 2

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and another war weekend at that. Another 20 million barrels per day of Gulf oil missing from the global economy. Have a great weekend everyone.

For every mistake that you learn from you will save thousands of similar mistakes in the future, so if you treat mistakes as learning opportunities that yield rapid improvements you should be excited by them. But if you treat them as bad things, you will make yourself and others miserable, and you won’t grow.

Ray Dalio

Thursday, 5 March 2026

War Day Six. NATO Turns On NATO. More Tariff Inflation.

Baltic Dry Index. 2233 -09     Brent Crude 84.47

Spot Gold  5175                        Spot Silver 84.44

US 2 Year Yield 3.54 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.843 trillion

US GDP 31.208 trillion.

“President Trump’s frustration with the Spanish government is justified, that first of all, they have been terrible actors. They are the only NATO member not meeting their NATO requirement. That’s known as a free rider.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

In the stock casinos, great volatility meets greater volatility daily.

Will the Israeli-Trump war on Iran really be good for stocks, global commerce, inflation, employment, the G-7 economies?

Or will oil led rising inflation cause western consumer to start cutting back, leading to rising unemployment?

Into this mix of global uncertainty, President Trump thinks this is just the right time to raise US tariffs from ten percent to fifteen percent 

Dinosaur Graeme sees a global commerce crash starting in 2026. Look away from the crude oil price and rising US Treasury yields now.

Dow closes more than 200 points higher, S&P 500 rises as traders look past Iran war: Live updates

Updated Wed, Mar 4 2026 4:57 PM EST

Stocks rose on Wednesday, building on the momentum seen late in the previous session, as the surge in oil prices pulled back following developments in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and fears about a U.S. economic growth scare faded.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 238.14 points, or 0.49%, to close at 48,739.41. The 30-stock index snapped a three-day run of losses. The S&P 500 gained 0.78% and ended at 6,869.50, while the Nasdaq Composite moved 1.29% higher and settled at 22,807.48.

Technology stocks supported the broader market, particularly those in the chips space. Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices each advanced more than 5%. Broadcom and Nvidia climbed more than 1% apiece.

A couple of strong economic data releases bolstered sentiment among investors Wednesday. Firstly, ADP reported that private sector companies added more jobs than anticipated in February. On top of that, the U.S. nonmanufacturing sector recorded better-than-expected growth last month with easing inflation pressures.

“The concerns of a softening labor market at least maybe turning into a deteriorating labor market [are] being kind of challenged right now,” said Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene. “The U.S. economy stands on firm ground.”

The reaction to the economic data occurred alongside the rally in oil prices losing steam after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Wednesday that the U.S. is going to make “a series of announcements” to support the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf. Brent crude oil futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased on Wednesday, with the international benchmark settling flat and WTI closing up 0.13%.

Oil’s recent rally abated after President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. would provide risk insurance to all maritime trade through the Gulf in an effort to get tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through the Strait — the world’s most vital transit route for crude oil — came to a halt after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander threatened to set fire to ships attempting the route.

“If we get to a more disruptive Middle East environment, you will see larger knock-on effects across global markets and asset prices and maybe outlooks for the economy,” Saglimbene said, before adding that “it’s too soon to make those assessments.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s 15% global tariff announced late last month will be implemented this week, Bessent also said Wednesday. Still, he believes U.S. tariff rates would “within five months” return to levels prior to the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the president’s tariff policy.

Stock market news for March 4, 2026

S&P 500 futures slide after major averages rebound, traders’ U.S.-Iran fears ease: Live updates

Updated Thu, Mar 5 2026 11:43 PM EST

S&P 500 futures slid on Wednesday night after major averages posted gains in the previous session, as investor jitters around the U.S.-Iran war eased.

Futures tied to the broad market index fell 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.18%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 140 points, or 0.28%.

Stocks rebounded in Wednesday’s regular session, buoyed by gains in technology and semiconductor giants. The Dow jumped about 238 points, or 0.5%, ending a three-day losing run. The S&P 500 closed up 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%.

Nvidia shares rose more than 1%. Chipmakers BroadcomMicron TechnologyAdvanced Micro Devices and Intel also notched gains. Consumer staples, energy and materials were the only S&P 500 sectors that posted losses on the day.

“Things are changing around the edges. We have a geopolitical shock, obviously, and we’re still parsing that in terms of how it could impact the risk premium for equities,” said Bank of America Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”

“But beyond that, I think what we’re seeing is the tide slowly going out for some of the beneficiaries of a very low interest rate environment,” she added.

Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after this week’s surge, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settling up 0.13% and international benchmark Brent crude oil futures ending the session at the flatline.

Fears of disruption to regional oil and gas supplies subsided after President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. is preparing to provide risk insurance and escorts to ships in the Persian Gulf in an effort to ensure traffic can move through the Strait of Hormuz. To be sure, the White House would not provide a timeline for when the strait, which is responsible for roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, will be safe for oil tankers.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday in a briefing with reporters that the U.S. is “winning decisively” in its conflict with Iran and that more forces are arriving to the region.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that Trump’s recently announced 15% global tariff will likely go into effect this week.

Investors are awaiting earnings results due Thursday morning from retailers KrogerBurlington and BJ’s WholesaleCostco and Marvell Technology will report results after market close.

On the economic front, weekly jobless claims are also due Thursday.

Stock market today: Live updates

Iran War Brings Strait of Hormuz Traffic to a Halt

March 4, 2026 at 11:08 PM GMT

Decades of theorizing about the consequences of war between the US and Iran tended to circle around the same fear: the world’s most famous chokepoint for fossil fuels, the Strait of Hormuz, would become a battlefield. Today that fear came true.

By the fifth day of the US-Israeli war with Iran, shipping has effectively stopped in the crucial channel. And less than a day after President Donald Trump spoke of escorting and insuring shipping through the Strait, a container vessel there was attacked and disabled. It now floats abandoned in the waterway

The death toll in the Iran War is near 1,000 people, with the dead mostly Iranians, including 165 who were killed when the US and Israel allegedly destroyed an elementary school for girls. The US said it’s investigating. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday the US and Israel are close to controlling Iranian airspace, which he said would allow them to deliver “death and destruction from the sky all day long.” Senate Republicans late today rejected a bill to stop the war.

Since the first attacks Saturday, another expected consequence of a Western conflict with Iran has come to pass: oil prices are up 12% and American consumers are witnessing record jumps in gasoline prices. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for much longer, the pain is expected to spread. And fastDavid E. Rovella

Iran War Brings Strait of Hormuz Traffic to a Halt: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Middle East conflict poses fresh test to central banks as oil shock fuels inflation

Published Wed, Mar 4 2026 12:08 AM EST

A widening Middle East conflict has posed a fresh test for global central banks, as fears of an oil shock and renewed inflation risks complicate policymakers’ calculus for shoring up growth.

Crude prices soared on Monday after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Tehran responded with missile attacks targeting multiple Gulf countries.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical chokepoint for oil shipments, has effectively stalled as the threat of attacks from Iran deterred vessels from passing through the waterway.

Brent crude prices extended four days of gains, rising 1.6% to $82.76 a barrel on Wednesday, hovering near the highest level since January 2025. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices also rose for a third day to $75.48.

Higher energy prices would ultimately filter through to consumer and producer prices, particularly for economies that rely heavily on Middle East oil imports, leaving central banks scrambling to reassess their interest rate trajectory.

“The ongoing Iran conflict solidifies the case for many central banks to hold rates steady for now,” a team of economists at Nomura said in a note on Sunday.

Central banks on alert

As heightened tensions weigh on economic activity, policymakers are juggling a delicate task of balancing inflationary risk against slowing growth.

The European Central Bank is caught in what ING economists called a “genuine dilemma,” as an oil shock could push already sticky inflation higher while its growth outlook weakens under the strain of higher U.S. tariffs. They added that “to see a rate hike, the eurozone economy would have to show clear resilience.”

Europe imports nearly all of its oil and a significant share of its liquefied natural gas, raising the risk of a dual energy and trade shock, the bank said.

ECB council member Pierre Wunsch said this week officials would avoid reacting hastily to any movements in energy prices. “If it lasts longer, if the increase in energy prices is higher, then we will have to run our models and see what happens,” Wunsch said.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the conflict could hit U.S. economic growth and fuel inflationary pressures, holding the Federal Reserve back from cutting rates.

“The recent Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates than they were before this happened,” Yellen said Monday.

U.S. inflation stood at 2.4% in January, above the Fed’s 2% target. Yellen warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could push annual inflation to at least 3%.

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Middle East conflict puts central banks on edge as oil shock fears mount

Higher tariffs likely this week, says US Treasury

4 March 2026

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US was "likely" to implement a 15% global tariff this week, following conflicting statements from President Donald Trump about the rate.

The new tariff is intended to replace the sweeping global import taxes Trump imposed last year but were recently struck down by the Supreme Court.

The White House responded to that ruling by imposing a levy at 10% - despite Trump claiming on social media it would be 15%.

The contradiction sparked widespread global confusion at the time, with businesses and world leaders calling for clarity.

White House officials have previously said they were working on paperwork to align the duties with Trump's statements.

They have dismissed the significance of the court ruling, saying they can use other legal tools to restore the tariff policies, which they say will help rebalance trade, boost domestic manufacturing and pay down US debt.

To impose the 10% tariff, the White House used an untested trade authority known as Section 122, which authorises the US president declare a tariff of up to 15% without congressional approval for 150 days under certain conditions.

The White House has said it will also turn to other legal tools as it seeks to restore its tariff regime more permanently.

"It's my strong belief that the tariff rates will be back to their old rate within five months," Bessent told CNBC.

He has said he does not expect the Supreme Court ruling to affect the revenue the US takes in from tariffs going forward.

The administration is currently facing claims from firms who had previously paid the tariffs the Supreme Court struck down. Experts say the government could owe up to $130bn (£97.2bn) in refunds as a result.

A study from the Cato Institute estimated US taxpayers could be on the hook for $23m in interest for each day that refunds are delayed — adding up to some $700m a month.

Significant questions remain about what US import tax policies will look like going forward.

Last April, Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs on dozens of countries, with rates starting at 10% and climbing toward 50% in some cases.

The duties kicked off a flurry of trade negotiations as countries pushed to secure lower rates in exchange for promises of investment and other changes.

The US Supreme Court's judgement struck down those "Liberation Day" tariffs, as well as some the administration had previously announced on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, citing emergency powers.

Trump responded by announcing a 10% global tariff, which he claimed on social media the next day he was increasing to 15%. However, the levy eventually came into force at the lower rate.

The move to an across-the-board tariff of 10%, with carve-outs for some kinds of goods, put shipments from all countries on an even footing.

It raised questions about the fate of the deals allies had secured after "Liberation Day", while removing the advantage that some countries such as the UK had agreed to in those deals.

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Higher tariffs likely this week, says US Treasury - BBC News

In other news, bizarrely in a gift to Russia, China and Latin America, NATO turns on itself.

Donald Trump declares US 'ending all trade to Spain' with threat to seize NATO bases

3 February 2026

Donald Trump has threatened to cut off trade with a major European power.

Trump railed against Spain at a press conference this afternoon during a briefing to journalists at the White House. "We're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain," the US president said.

Trump said the United States would cut off all trade with Spain after it refused to let the US military use its bases for missions linked to strikes on Iran. "Spain has been terrible," Trump told reporters during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, adding that he had told Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to "cut off all dealings" with Spain.

"It started when every European nation, at my request, made 5%, which they should be doing. Everybody was enthusiastic - Germany, everybody - but Spain didn't do it."

In response, Trump said Spain revoked the US access to its NATO bases. "And that's all right, we can use their bases if we want," Trump said. "We can just fly in and use it. Nobody is going to tell us not to use it. They were unfriendly."

At the same press conference, Trump took the opportunity to share his displeasure with Britain as well, following wrangling over the use of the UK's airbase on Diego Garcia for initial US strikes against Iran.

Referring to the UK's Chagos Islands deal, he said: "That island that you read about, the lease, for whatever reason, he made a lease of the island, somebody came and took it away from him.

"And it's taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land, it would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours.

"So we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with," he said of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Starmer had refused to let the United States use the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, for the initial strikes on Iran. However, the US will now be allowed access to UK bases for limited strikes on Iranian missile capabilities.

"President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes, but it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest," Starmer told MPs.

The Prime Minister has since confirmed the deployment of a Royal Navy Destroyer and anti-drone helicopters, amid news that RAF F-35 fighter jets have shot down Iranian drones over Jordan.

Starmer said that the situation changed on Sunday when Iran's attacks on targets across the Middle East became "a threat to our people, our interests and our allies."

Donald Trump declares US 'ending all trade to Spain' with threat to seize NATO bases

‘No to war’: Spain PM hits back over Trump’s threats to cut trade over military base access

Published Wed, Mar 4 2026 5:01 AM EST

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday doubled down on his criticism of the U.S strikes against Iran, describing the escalating Middle East conflict as a “disaster.”

His comments come after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to cut off trade with Madrid after Spain’s government prevented two jointly operated bases in its territory from being used in the strikes.

“Spain has been terrible,” Trump said on Tuesday, during a White House news conference alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain,” he added.

In a televised address on Wednesday morning, Sánchez said: “Very often great wars start with a chain of events spiralling out of control due to miscalculations, technical failures, and unforeseen circumstances. Therefore, we must learn from history and cannot play Russian roulette with the fate of millions,” according to a CNBC translation.

Sánchez warned of “repeating the mistakes of the past,” drawing a comparison with the invasion of Iraq in the early 2000s, and summarized the government’s position as: “No to war.”

Spain’s socialist prime minister has emerged as one of the leading critics of the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran among leaders of EU nations.

Trump’s latest comments follow his condemnation of Madrid’s refusal to meet the NATO defense spending target of 5% of GDP.

Spain’s Ibex 35 index traded 1.4% higher at around 10:17 a.m. London time (5:17 a.m. ET), reversing earlier losses amid U.S. trade jitters. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index, meanwhile, advanced around 1.2%.

Trump’s threat to punish Spain on trade would be challenging, given that the 27 EU nations negotiate trade agreements collectively.

“It’s naive to believe that democracy or respect among nations can spring from ruins, or to think that blind and servile obedience is a form of leadership. On the contrary, I believe this position is leadership,” Sánchez said.

“We will not be complicit in something that is bad for the world and contrary to our values ​​and interests simply out of fear of reprisals from someone,” he added.

Spain PM Sánchez brushes off Trump's threat to cut off all trade

Carney U-turns on support for Trump’s Iran strikes

4 March 2026

Mark Carney has backtracked on his support for the US military campaign against Iran.

In an initial statement on Sunday, the Canadian prime minister expressed “support” for the attacks and said they were necessary to “prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon”.

But speaking in Sydney on Wednesday, he told reporters that the strikes appeared “to be inconsistent with international law”.

Mr Carney joined a chorus of world leaders speaking out against the joint US-Israeli operation, which entered its fifth day on Wednesday.

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Tuesday that while Iran bore responsibility for the war, the attacks by the US and Israel were “outside the bounds of international law”.

He was the second Western leader to question the legality of the conflict outright after Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, criticised the “spiral of violence”.

Mr Sánchez reiterated his stance on Wednesday morning in a defiant address to the nation, telling the US president: “No to war.” The Left-wing leader said: “Our position is coherent. We are not going to go against our own values out of fear of someone’s threats.”

An independent UN inquiry has also condemned the attacks by Israel and US.

On Wednesday, the UN Independent International Fact-Finding ‌Mission on Iran said: “These attacks, which were followed by ⁠Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region, run counter to the ‌UN Charter, which prohibits the use of ‌force against the ⁠territorial integrity or political ⁠independence of any state.”

Mr Carney’s about-turn sets Canada on a collision course with Mr Trump, who threatened Spain with an outright trade embargo as punishment for its refusal to allow the US to use its bases to bomb Iran.

The US president has also been critical of Sir Keir Starmer, who has not publicly questioned the legality of the war but said earlier this week that the UK Government did not “support regime change from the skies”.

Mr Trump said he was “not happy” with the lack of support from Britain and accused Sir Keir of tarnishing relationships by initially refusing to allow US bombers to use Diego Garcia, the joint military base on the Chagos Islands, to launch strikes on Tehran.

“This is not Winston Churchill we’re dealing with,” Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, echoing criticisms he had made to The Telegraph on Sunday night. “They ruin relationships. It’s a shame.”

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Carney U-turns on support for Trump’s Iran strikes

“And then it was unacceptable over the weekend that the Spanish were highly uncooperative regarding the U.S. bases and what we could do with our planes as we began executing on Operation Epic Fury.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Interest rates 'could rise back above 4%' to deal with inflation shock

4 March 2026

The Bank of England could raise interest rates back above 4 per cent if soaring energy prices lead to a fresh inflation shock, according to a new report.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warned borrowing costs could be driven higher as war in the Middle East pushes up the price oil and gas.

That would be a bruising setback for millions of families pinning their hopes on cheaper mortgages.

The Bank has cut rates six times since August 2024 – bringing them down from 5.25 per cent to 3.75 per cent – and it was hoped further rate cuts would follow this spring.

But the chances of such a move have been severely dented by surging energy prices the US-Israel war with Iran spreads through the region.

According to bets on financial markets, there is now just a one-in-five chance the Bank of England will cut rates again this month, down from around four-in-five last week.

And NIESR said the next move in interest rates may in fact be up.

The group said a ‘persistent shock to energy prices may force the Bank of England to raise rates back above 4 per cent’.

NIESR economist Ed Cornforth said: ‘The conflict in the Middle East will have material implications for the economic outlook.

‘The Bank of England will have to contend with a shock to global energy prices, with the question of persistence hanging over their heads.

‘This will cause problems for Rachel Reeves as financing costs increase, putting further pressure on an already precarious fiscal outlook.’

The surge in energy prices has revived memories of runaway inflation seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

That sent inflation in the UK up to 11.1 per cent - and forced the Bank of England to raise rates sharply to 5.25 per cent.

It was hoped inflation was finally coming back under control, paving the way for further rate cuts.

But the war in the Middle East has cast a major shadow over the outlook and fuelled fears of a new inflation shock.

That will put the Bank of England and its governor Andrew Bailey on high alert.

Mortgage lenders have already started ditching plans to cut the price of home loans.

Borrowing and savings specialists Moneyfacts said 'several lenders have pushed pause on planned rate cuts' – dashing the hopes of millions of families hunting for cheaper home loans.

It said the moves have come 'in response to the conflict in the Middle East and its potential economic repercussions'.

Interest rates 'could rise back above 4%' to deal with inflation shock

Eurozone inflation sees unexpected rise: Is the worst yet to come?

Tue, 3 March 2026 at 12:34 pm GMT

Eurozone inflation rose unexpectedly in February, fresh data showed on Tuesday, complicating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) disinflation narrative just as a fast-moving war in Middle East threatens to reignite a new energy shock for Europe.

Euro area annual inflation came in at 1.9% in February 2026, up from 1.7% in January, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate. Economists had expected the rate to hold steady.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.7% — the strongest monthly rise since March 2024.

Core inflation, which strips out energy and food, climbed to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.2%, also above expectations.

Crucially, this data was collected before the latest Middle East escalation began to disrupt energy markets.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned on Tuesday that a prolonged war could push eurozone inflation higher and weigh on growth, while stressing that the medium-term outcome will depend on the conflict’s scope and duration.

Service pressures re-emerge, core inflation ticks higher

Eurostat said services inflation is expected to run at 3.4% year on year in February, up from 3.2% in January. Food, alcohol and tobacco held steady at 2.6%, while non-energy industrial goods accelerated to 0.7% from 0.4%.

Energy prices were still falling compared with a year earlier but less so than in January (-4.0%), hinting that the drag from energy is fading even before inflation statistics fully digest the latest geopolitical turmoil.

Notably, February’s flash estimate predates the most acute market moves triggered by the widening conflict in the Middle East — meaning the bigger concern for inflation is what comes next.

Iranian forces have retaliated with strikes targeting critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region.

On Monday, a senior commander of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps announced to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude oil and natural gas flows.

Trading in the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, with ships damaged or stranded and insurers pulling back war-risk cover — factors that can quickly translate into tighter gas supply and higher delivered prices for Europe.

The disruption is already feeding memories of the 2022 energy crisis when gas prices surged, industrial output faltered and consumer inflation soared into double digits.

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Eurozone inflation sees unexpected rise: Is the worst yet to come?

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

JinkoSolar achieves record-breaking 26.66% efficiency for TOPCon solar cell based on M10-size wafer

The Chinese manufacturer claims the new efficiency result sets a world record for industrial-scale TOPCon solar cells on M10-size wafers. The achievement was verified by an undisclosed independent third-party organisation in China.

March 3, 2026 Emiliano Bellini

Chinese solar module manufacturer JinkoSolar achieved a power conversion efficiency of 26.6% for an industrial-scale TOPCon solar cell based on an M10-size wafer.

The achievement, which represents a world record for industrial-scale solar cells, was certified by an independent, undisclosed organisation in China.

The device was developed with the support of scientists from the Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering (NIMTE) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), in collaboration with scientists from Soochow University and Jiliang University. It was described in the paper “Dual-side electrical refinement enables efficient industrial tunnel oxide passivating contact silicon solar cells,” published in nature energy.

The team used an M10 wafer with an effective area of 313.3 cm², consistent with modern industrial-scale production standards.

On the cell’s front side, the researchers combined high-sheet-resistance boron emitters with optimized grid designs, improving surface passivation and reducing carrier transport losses. On the rear, they implemented a novel double-layer tunnel oxide/polysilicon structure to mitigate metallization-induced degradation.

This design includes a highly crystalline inner polysilicon layer and an outer barrier layer that blocks silver diffusion from the electrodes into the silicon substrate, ensuring excellent interfacial passivation, according to the research team.

Tested under standard illumination conditions, the cell achieved an efficiency of 26.6%, an open-circuit voltage of 744.6 mV and a fill factor of 85.57%. Thinning the rear polysilicon layer further increased the cell’s bifaciality to 88.3%, boosting overall energy yield.

“The device has achieved 83.8% of the theoretical efficiency limit, outperforming conventional TOPCon solar cells,” said the study’s lead author, Jichun Ye.

JinkoSolar currently also holds the world record efficiency of 27.02% for a lab-scale TOPCon solar cell, verified by China’s National Photovoltaic Industry Measurement and Testing Center (NPVM).

By 2028, JinkoSolar expects to cross the 28% threshold, it said in a recent white paper.

The company also recently announced it achieved a power conversion efficiency of 25.58% for a TOPCon panel, with the result being certified by certification body TÜV SÜD.

JinkoSolar achieves record-breaking 26.66% efficiency for TOPCon solar cell based on M10-size wafer – pv magazine Australia

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“Anything that slows down our ability to engage and prosecute this war in the fastest, most effective manner puts American lives at risk. The Spanish put American lives at risk.”

 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent