Baltic
Dry Index. 2659 +006 Brent Crude 79.60
Spot Gold 4135 Spot
Silver 64.45
US 2 Year Yield 4.19 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 39.269 trillion
US GDP 32.227 trillion
19 June 1588, the Spanish
Armada is heavily damaged in storms in the Bay of Biscay along the Galician
coast of Spain, some ships return to A Coruña for repairs.
In the stock casinos, more mania madness. If
this isn’t the top dinosaur Graeme thinks it’s near the top of stock mania
madness.
Is SpaceX the new South Sea Bubble? Tulipmania?
Almost daily I read of retailers closing on
both sides of the Atlantic, fast food firms failing, airlines, engineering
firms and construction firms closing. The great disconnect gets ever wider.
With Trump’s war folly possibly only postponed
for 60 days, a disaster lies ahead if Trump’s folly resumes.
South Korea’s Kospi extends record run as Asia
markets open mixed; Samsung, SK Hynix hit all-time highs
Updated Fri, Jun 19 2026 11:45 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on
Friday, with South Korea’s benchmark Kospi extending its record-setting run as
shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix climbed to all-time highs.
Investors also assessed the durability of
a U.S.-brokered peace agreement with Iran after U.S. Vice President JD Vance
said any economic relief for Tehran would depend on the country meeting its
obligations under the deal.
“The United States isn’t giving up a cent
of money to Iran,” Vance said. “The only way the Iranians get any of these
resources ... is if they comply fully” with the terms of the deal.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba
Khamenei, likewise described the agreement as conditional, saying on Thursday
that he approved the memorandum only after receiving guarantees that Iran’s
rights and the “resistance front” would be safeguarded.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 opened higher,
advancing 0.6% after hitting a record high on Thursday, while the Topix was
flat.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.8% after
crossing the 9,000 mark for the first time yesterday, while the small-cap
Kosdaq slid 0.39%.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was down
0.74%.
China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are
closed for a holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks closed out
the holiday-shortened week in positive territory. The three major indexes
closed higher after the Federal Reserve indicated the possibility
of a rate hike this year — a move that sparked a sell-off in equities
during the previous session.
The S&P 500 added 1.08%,
closing at 7,500.58, and the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 1.91% to 26,517.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
by 72.15 points, or 0.14%, to end at 51,564.70.
South
Korea's Kospi extends record run as Asia markets open mixed; Samsung, SK Hynix
hit all-time highs
S&P 500 closes higher, Nasdaq climbs nearly 2%
as chips fuel comeback from Fed sell-off: Live updates
Updated Thu, Jun 18 2026 4:32 PM EDT
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, staging a
comeback after the Federal Reserve indicated the possibility of a
rate hike this
year — a move that sparked a sell-off in equities during the previous session.
The S&P 500 added 1.08%,
closing at 7,500.58, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed
1.91% to 26,517.93. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose
by 72.15 points, or 0.14%, to end at 51,564.70.
Intel led chip stocks higher,
rising 10.6% after President Donald Trump said the
company will partner with Apple on designing chips in the
U.S. Fellow semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron Technology were also
higher by about 3% and almost 9%, respectively. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) jumped more
than 6%.
Robert Conzo, chief executive officer at
The Wealth Alliance, said he believes there’s “more bullishness around
companies working together because of [artificial intelligence] infrastructure
and the effects of AI within many, many different competing industries.” He
also said, “I think Apple-Intel was a little proxy for what you could see
happening in the future.”
Wall Street sold off Wednesday after the
Federal Reserve’s first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chairman raised worries
about monetary policy going forward.
Policymakers’ “dot plot” revealed that
nine out of 18 Fed officials now see interest rates increasing in 2026.
Complicating the outlook was Warsh’s decision to
abstain from
submitting a rate forecast. However, the chairman repeatedly emphasized the
goal of achieving “price
stability” during
the press conference, exhibiting a tone seen as rather hawkish.
“There’s uncertainty, but I think
underlying that uncertainty is some pretty positive forces moving forward,”
Conzo added, citing strong earnings, the better-than-expected
May jobs reading and
recent upbeat retail sales figures as drivers.
Stocks closed out the holiday-shortened
week in positive territory. The S&P 500 gained 0.9% in the period for its
11th winning week in 12. The Dow advanced 0.7% for the week, while the Nasdaq
jumped 2.4%.
Stock market news
for June 18, 2026
In Trump war folly news, delusion versus the
new reality.
Trump claims Iran deal is ‘unconditional
surrender,’ says his power has ‘no limits’: Axios
Published Thu, Jun 18 2026 8:21 PM EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that
he has unlimited power and insisted the deal reached with Iran amounts to
“unconditional surrender” by Tehran, in an interview
with Axios.
The U.S. and Iran signed the agreement on
Thursday, after three and a half months of conflict that shut the Strait of
Hormuz and rattled global energy markets. Trump said he negotiated the
agreement to prevent the conflict from triggering a global economic depression,
speaking in the interview Thursday evening stateside.
The memorandum of understanding includes a
60-day negotiating period to reach a final deal, a reopening of the critical
Strait of Hormuz and a framework for nuclear negotiations. Several key details
remain unresolved and will be addressed in subsequent negotiations.
Asked what he had learned from the war
about the limits to his power, Trump said that “I haven’t learned that lesson
yet. I know there are, but there are no limits.”
Shipping activity through the Strait of
Hormuz began picking up as the agreement took effect, with cargo ships and oil
tankers resuming transit through the narrow artery.
At least 18 transits were recorded during
the June 17-18 period, the highest count for any comparable timeframe since the
conflict started, according
to maritime intelligence firm Windward.
U.S. Central Command said Thursday that
American forces had lifted all blockade enforcement on maritime traffic
entering and exiting Iranian coastal areas.
“All U.S. military blockade enforcement
efforts have ceased,” CENTCOM said in a social media post, adding that U.S.
naval forces would remain in the general area to ensure all aspects of the
agreement are followed.
A White House spokesperson said U.S. Vice
President JD Vance canceled a planned trip to Switzerland on Friday, where he
had been expected to begin the 60-day negotiations with Iranian officials,
citing logistical reasons.
More
Trump claims Iran
deal is 'unconditional surrender': Axios
How Trump’s ‘Operation Epic Disaster’ turned the
world against America
Donald Trump wanted to bring the Islamic
Republic to its knees. He failed on all counts
Published 18 June 2026 6:31am BST
One month into Operation Epic Fury, Donald
Trump insisted that one of the most intense military campaigns in recent
history would soon be over.
“We are on the cusp of ending Iran’s
sinister threat to America and the world,” the US president said in a primetime
address.
Almost two months later he signed a deal
to end the conflict that
many argue favours Iran and fails to meet his primary objectives.
The Iran war has revealed the limits of US
military power to achieve political objectives. But it has also left allies and
partners questioning their relations with Washington.
“We deployed American power recklessly and
incomprehensibly,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US state department
negotiator and adviser during multiple Republican and Democratic
administrations.
“The moral and strategic argument is that
Operation Epic Fury has been an epic disaster,” he said, adding: “What
significance did this war have to advancing the national interests of the US?”
Mr Trump spent his last day at the G7
summit in Geneva this week trying to quell concerns about the peace treaty.
The page-and-a-half-long deal, signed on
Wednesday night, consists of a broad and apparently flimsy set of principles to
keep peace and kick contentious issues into the long grass.
Among US allies, concerns are being raised
privately that the rushed framework is light on nuclear concessions and heavy
on financial incentives.
A senior European diplomat said: “The deal
will turn out to be a win for Iran. I don’t think Iran will give much in the
coming 60 days of negotiations.
“Obviously, Iran has been degraded
somewhat by the military campaign, but psychologically and politically I think
Iran is the winner, at least for now.”
The conflict put unprecedented strain on
the transatlantic alliance. Some European countries denied American warplanes
use of their airspace, while the refusal of Nato countries to send warships to
help reopen the Strait of Hormuz infuriated
Mr Trump.
It culminated in Mr Trump threatening to
abandon the alliance altogether.
The diplomat added: “The frustration with
the current erratic foreign policy swings is growing and increasingly visible.
We have always answered the phone, when the US has called. For the time being,
those phone calls will be picked up less frequently.”
Militarily, the US has depleted its
critical missile and munitions stockpiles and overstretched its
artillery, forcing the relocation of assets from the Pacific.
The Gulf states have suffered severe
damage to energy facilities and incurred heavy economic losses. Their long-held
image as safe and luxurious tax havens has been shattered.
Israel, still at war with Iran-backed
Hezbollah, has been sidelined in negotiations and forcibly brought to heel by
Mr Trump, while its support in America is being drained.
The Iranian regime is emboldened,
hardliners are empowered, and the civilian population is suffering from
intensified repression.
Tehran will commit to fully reopening the
Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and reiterate its pledge to never produce a
nuclear weapon – positions it held before the war began.
The White House has insisted “no dust, no
dollars”, meaning Iran has to surrender its 430kg of highly enriched uranium
before it gets sanctions relief. But such nuclear concessions were already on
the table in February, days before the war began.
The terms have led allies to privately
ask: What exactly did Mr Trump go to war with Iran for?
More
How the Iran war
irreparably damaged US credibility
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
Tehran Is Poised to Overplay Its Hand
Nate Swanson June 18, 2026
When the United States and Israel launched
their war on Iran in late February, the regime in Tehran was in an
unprecedented position of weakness. It faced existential economic and
environmental crises, diminished defensive capabilities, and internal turmoil
and external scrutiny following a brutal January crackdown on protests that
killed thousands of its own people. But after 40 days of war and two months of
shaky cease-fire, the Islamic Republic has emerged intact, emboldened, and
armed with a new deterrent that appears even more powerful than all the weapons
its adversaries damaged with airstrikes: its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
In late April, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that the strait
had become Iran's “economic nuclear weapon.” The world now understands that if
Iran is attacked, it will shut the strait, disrupting energy markets worldwide.
Put plainly, U.S. President Donald Trump lost both
the war and the negotiations to end it. But if Tehran overplays its hand, it
could lose the peace that follows. The memorandum of understanding signed by
Iran and the United States postpones the resolution of most of the difficult
issues (including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program) to a 60-day
negotiating period. But the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be far more
difficult to finesse than most realize. The MOU will provide for the safe
passage of commercial vessels at no charge for 60 days while Iran and,
presumably, the United States seek to define the strait’s postwar
administration. But whether a final deal is struck or not, Iran has made clear
that it intends to impose new restrictions and fees on commercial vessels
transiting the Strait after the negotiation period ends. Iran’s lead
negotiator, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Ghalibaf, said outright that
“the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its previous condition” and
“naturally, we will charge fees in return for the services we provide.”
It is understandable why such an
arrangement would tempt Iran. The country suffered immense economic damage
during the war, and it is eager to quash any lingering notions that it is weak.
But pressing for a status quo that does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz to all
maritime traffic without fees or tolls risks undermining Iran’s newfound
deterrence and makes a return to conflict more likely. It could upend global
shipping permanently and, by accelerating the world’s effort to find
alternative routes, lower the costs Iran’s adversaries face in launching a
future war. The Strait of Hormuz could thus become the locus of postwar
instability. And just as Trump overestimated his strategic advantage when he
launched the war, Tehran could be poised to make the same mistake now that the
war has ended.
More, much more.
Iran Won the War
but May Lose the Peace | Foreign Affairs
In other news, better news.
Strait of Hormuz threat level downgraded after
Iran deal, says U.S.-led maritime security group
Published Wed, Jun 17 2026 9:32 AM EDT Updated
Wed, Jun 17 2026 2:46 PM EDT
The threat to ships transiting the Strait
of Hormuz has lessened following the announcement of the Iran deal, a naval coalition led by the
United States told shippers in a notice this week.
The Joint
Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat level in Hormuz to
“substantial” from “severe” in an advisory note published Tuesday. The center
is a maritime security organization headquartered in Bahrain that coordinates
among allied navies and merchant ships in the Middle East.
Shippers should nevertheless remain aware
that “an attack is still a strong possibility” when navigating the strait, the
JMIC said in its notice. Mines also remain a threat and “caution is advised on
all approaches.”
But the behavior of Iran’s Revolutionary
Guard “has become less volatile” following the announcement of the U.S.-Iran
deal, the JMIC said. The U.S. Navy continues to “provide stabilizing
oversight,” according to the notice.
Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz has not
significantly increased since the U.S. and Iran announced the deal on Sunday.
Six tankers were among 13 commercial ships that transited Hormuz on Tuesday,
according to data shared by Kpler. More than 100 vessels sailed through the
strait daily before the war.
“Strait of Hormuz traffic remained
significantly reduced,” the JMIC said in its Tuesday notice.
The security situation in Hormuz was
classified as “critical,” the highest threat level issued by the JMIC, as
recently as June 4. The CEO of oil tanker company Frontline told CNBC
last week that some shippers were waiting for the threat level to be downgraded
before transiting the strait.
“When some of these red lights become
orange or yellow, you’re going to see a fairly quick move of owners starting to
call and go through the Hormuz Strait,” said Frontline CEO Lars Barstad.
The U.S.-Iran deal promises to open Hormuz
to commercial ships and lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran. Washington and
Tehran are scheduled to formally sign the deal Friday in Geneva.
Traffic through Hormuz plunged after the
U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Tehran retaliated by targeting ships
sailing through the strait, effectively closing the sea lane and triggering the
biggest oil supply disruption in history. About 20% of global oil supplies
passed through Hormuz before the war.
The global shipping trade group Bimco said
Monday that “credible assurances” are needed from Iran and the U.S. before
traffic through Hormuz can return to prewar levels.
“Due to lack of details and a history of
overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the
shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for
ships to commence transits at this point,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and
security officer at Bimco.
“The threat of mines in the area remains a
concern immediately as well as further down the line and mine-free routes need
to be established,” Larsen said.
Hormuz threat
downgraded after Iran deal, says U.S.-led naval group
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
US-Iran
deal calms oil markets, reduces recession risk but concerns persist
Traders interpreted the breakthrough as a signal that
the most severe phase of the crisis may be over, helping push oil prices to
their lowest levels in several months
PUBLISHED: Tue 16 Jun 2026, 12:04 PM
The US-Iran agreement has
removed a key trigger for a global recession by easing concerns over oil
supplies and restoring confidence in energy markets.
While the accord has helped calm investors and lower
risk premiums, analysts warn it is not a silver bullet for an economy still
grappling with slowing growth and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Markets responded enthusiastically to the announcement,
with Brent crude prices falling sharply as traders scaled back expectations of
prolonged supply disruptions. Global equities advanced and measures of market
volatility declined as investors judged that the risk of a major energy crisis
had receded.
----According to Oxford Economics, the agreement
represents a significant diplomatic breakthrough and a meaningful step towards
a broader settlement, even though substantial challenges remain. "While
this is a significant step towards reaching a full-blown deal, there will
likely be bumps in the road," said Ben May, director of Global Macro
Research at Oxford Economics.
He argued that the most important consequence of the
announcement is the reduction in the risk of an extreme oil supply shock rather
than any immediate increase in oil shipments. Oxford Economics had already
assumed in its June baseline forecast that shipping through the Strait of
Hormuz would begin recovering in late July. Consequently, the latest agreement
does not necessarily imply a faster restoration of oil flows than previously
anticipated.
What has changed is the balance of risks.
Before the agreement, economists had warned that a
prolonged disruption could sharply reduce global oil inventories, triggering a
surge in energy prices and creating renewed inflationary pressures across major
economies. Such a scenario would have increased the likelihood of recession in
economies already grappling with weak growth and elevated borrowing costs.
"The fact that both sides have announced an
agreement reduces the tail risk of dwindling oil inventories prompting a
recession-inducing oil price spike," May said.
Bridget Payne, Head of Oil and Gas Forecasting at
Oxford Economics, said the easing of geopolitical tensions has materially
improved the near-term outlook for energy markets.
While shipping levels may still take time to return to
pre-conflict levels, Payne argued that the probability of a severe inventory
squeeze has declined substantially. As a result, Oxford Economics now expects
to revise its near-term oil price forecasts lower in its forthcoming June
update.
The reaction in energy markets suggests investors share
that assessment. Brent crude prices fell around 5 per cent following news of
the agreement, reflecting growing confidence that the worst-case scenario for
global oil supplies is becoming less likely.
Independent analysts have reached similar conclusions.
Reuters reported that traders interpreted the
breakthrough as a signal that the most severe phase of the crisis may be over,
helping push oil prices to their lowest levels in several months. Investors
increasingly believe that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will
gradually normalise, reducing the likelihood of a prolonged supply shock.
However, industry experts caution that a return to
normal conditions will not happen overnight.
Shipping companies, tanker operators and maritime
insurers have warned that vessel traffic remains constrained by security
concerns, de-mining operations and elevated insurance costs. Several major
operators have indicated they will only gradually resume normal operations once
safety conditions are verified. Industry observers suggest that a full return
to pre-conflict shipping volumes could take months rather than weeks.
That view closely aligns with Oxford Economics'
assessment that the agreement does not automatically translate into a rapid
increase in oil shipments. While markets have become more optimistic, the
practical process of restoring maritime trade remains complex.
Shipping companies, tanker operators and maritime
insurers have warned that vessel traffic remains constrained by security
concerns, de-mining operations and elevated insurance costs. Several major
operators have indicated they will only gradually resume normal operations once
safety conditions are verified. Industry observers suggest that a full return
to pre-conflict shipping volumes could take months rather than weeks.
That view closely aligns with Oxford Economics'
assessment that the agreement does not automatically translate into a rapid
increase in oil shipments. While markets have become more optimistic, the
practical process of restoring maritime trade remains complex.
Geopolitical analysts have also urged caution. Several
experts have described the agreement as an important breakthrough but
emphasised that it remains a framework rather than a comprehensive settlement.
Difficult negotiations still lie ahead over sanctions relief, security
guarantees and longstanding disputes linked to Iran's nuclear programme.
Those uncertainties help explain why economists remain
cautious about the broader economic implications.
Lower oil prices are expected to reduce headline
inflation across many advanced economies. Households and businesses should
benefit from lower fuel and transport costs, easing some of the pressure
created by recent energy market volatility.
However, Oxford Economics argues that the resulting
boost to economic activity is likely to be modest.
More
US-Iran deal calms oil markets, reduces recession risk but concerns persist
| Khaleej Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Portugal plans capacity market with dedicated battery storage
auction
Portugal
is developing a capacity market open to batteries, power plants and flexible
demand, and has reaffirmed plans to auction 750 MVA of battery storage
capacity.
18 Jun 2026
Portugal has begun work on a new
capacity mechanism designed to safeguard electricity supply as electrification
accelerates, renewable energy expands and power demand is expected to rise over
the coming decade.
The measure, announced by the Ministry
of Environment and Energy, would remunerate resources that can be available
during periods of peak demand through competitive processes open to generation
assets, energy storage and demand-side flexibility.
The initiative draws on the findings of
the Electricity Supply Security Assessment Report (RMSA-E), prepared jointly by
the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG), Portuguese transmission
system operator REN and energy regulator ERSE.
To assess the future resilience of the
power system, Portuguese authorities adopted a reliability standard of 1.46
hours per year, representing the maximum level of outage risk considered
acceptable under the European methodology for security of supply following
consultations with consumers and businesses.
According to the study, maintaining that
standard will require additional sources of flexibility and dispatchable
capacity capable of complementing the rapid growth of renewable generation.
The remuneration mechanism will be open
to a range of technologies able to provide firm capacity to the system,
including conventional generation, energy storage systems, demand response
programmes and aggregated flexibility resources.
A central element of Portugal’s strategy
is the explicit inclusion of energy storage within its security-of-supply
framework, with the government arguing that batteries and other storage
technologies will be essential to manage the growing variability associated
with solar and wind generation.
In this context, the government
reiterated plans to launch a dedicated auction for 750 MVA of battery
storage capacity. The strategy will also include the development of new
pumped hydro projects, which Portugal sees as a key source of long-duration
storage.
The government also envisages investment
in combined-cycle gas plants, which it said will continue to provide backup
capacity during the large-scale integration of renewable energy.
As in Spain, the mechanism will require
approval from the European Commission before it can be implemented.
Portugal will now begin the
pre-notification process with Brussels, the first step towards the formal
approval required under European Union state aid and electricity market rules.
Portugal plans capacity market with dedicated battery storage auction -
pv magazine Global
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a “ceasefire” weekend at that, though no one in Israel seems to
know what “ceasefire” means. With luck, the ships stuck in the Persian Gulf since
February 28th, will now travel out, but will any ships travel in to
restart vital supply chains? Have a great weekend everyone.
In tomorrow's LIR update, The Great AI Danger.
Battle of Seven Oaks
The Battle of Seven Oaks—also known as the Seven Oaks
Massacre and the Seven Oaks Incident—was a violent confrontation of
the Pemmican
War between the Hudson's
Bay Company (HBC) and the North
West Company (NWC) which occurred on 19 June 1816 near modern-day Winnipeg,
Manitoba.[2]
Resulting in a decisive victory for the NWC over their rivals in
the North American fur trade, the
confrontation was the climax in a long series of dispute in the Canadas.[3]
The battle is also known as the Victory of the Frog
Plain (French: la Victoire de la Grenouillère)
among Métis People, whose members fought
for the NWC during the battle.[2][4] The
event would mark one of the first times the Métis asserted themselves as la Nouvelle Nation ('the
New Nation') and fly the flag of the Métis
Nation.[4]
More
Battle of Seven
Oaks - Wikipedia
