Baltic
Dry Index. 3124 +39 Brent Crude 97.93
Spot Gold 4374 Spot Silver 72.10
US 2 Year Yield 4.00 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 39.278 trillion
US GDP 32.159 trillion.
In reality there is no such thing as an inflation of prices, relatively to gold. There is such a thing as a depreciated paper currency.
Lysander Spooner
It is day 90 of Trump’s six day war on the global economy and there’s no sign of it ending soon or well for any of the G-7 economies.
With the Gulf of Hormuz still mostly closed and Iran’s oil now blocked from reaching the global economy by Trump’s blockade on Iran’s ports and shipping, the US and global economy are now trading into a new global stagflation.
With no end in sight, at least no win in sight for team Trump worth the increasing cost of the unnecessary optional war, only a bad ending for the global economy and most consumers now lies ahead.
With each passing day we are one day closer to an economic disaster. Keep watching closely the global inventory of diesel fuel.
When lack of supply forces high price rationing, very bad things start happening fast in farming, goods distribution, and commerce in general. My guess and it’s only a guess, is that we are less than thirty days out from a US and European diesel crisis.
Asia-Pacific markets open lower as Iran-U.S.
negotiations remain in focus
Published Wed, May 27 2026 7:53 PM ED
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Thursday
as investors continue to assess mixed signals from the ongoing Iran-U.S.
negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that
talks with Iran have
made some progress and that “we’re going to give it every chance to
succeed,” adding that the U.S. prefers “the negotiated diplomatic route.” That
said, President Donald Trump has said that he will not permit Iran to
control the key Strait of Hormuz as part of a deal.
While a Reuters report said that Tehran
had committed to restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz to prewar levels
within one month of an agreement with the U.S., citing Iranian state media, the
White House said in a social media post that the report about a memorandum of
understanding was “a complete fabrication.”
Meanwhile, U.S. forces launched fresh
strikes in Iran, according to MS Now. These actions were “measured, purely
defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire,” the official said in the
statement, a U.S. official told MS NOW.
West Texas Intermediate futures
for July were 1.66% higher at $90.15 per barrel as of 9:26 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures for
July rose 2.03% to $96.20 per barrel.
South Korea’s Kospi was lower
by 0.36%, while the small-cap Kosdaq extended early losses, falling
2.61%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was marginally
lower, while the Topix declined 0.23%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.79%
lower.
China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.38%, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng dropped
0.69%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose
less than 0.1%. Futures tied
to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 49 points, or 0.1%.
During Wednesday’s regular session,
the S&P 500 ticked
0.02% higher to 7,520.36, another closing record. The 30-stock Dow gained 182.60 points, or
0.36%, for a record close of 50,644.28. The Nasdaq Composite edged up
0.07% to end at 26,674.73.
Asia
markets today: ASX, Kospi, Nikkei, Sensex, Hang Seng, CSI, Iran
S&P 500 futures are little changed as Wall
Street awaits key April inflation reading: Live updates
Updated Thu, May 28 2026 10:13 PM EDT
S&P 500 futures were little changed on
Wednesday night as traders looked ahead to the release of a key inflation
reading.
Futures linked to the broad
market index were marginally lower, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost
about 0.2%. Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 16 points.
Overnight West Texas Intermediate crude oil
futures rose 2% to top $90 a barrel. The action came after Reuters reported, citing a U.S. official, that the U.S.
military conducted new strikes in Iran, targeting a military site.
Shares of Snowflake soared 36% in
Wednesday’s extended trading session after the cloud-based data platform
provider inked a plan to
spend $6 billion on Amazon Web Services over five years. The company
also reported a first-quarter earnings and revenue beat.
The moves came after a decline in oil
prices pushed the blue-chip Dow to
a new intraday and closing record on Wednesday. The 30-stock index popped
182.60 points, or 0.36%. The S&P
500 eked out a gain of 0.02%, also notching a record close, while
the Nasdaq Composite inched
0.07% higher.
Crude oil prices fell in Wednesday’s
regular session after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during a White House
Cabinet meeting that talks with Iran have
made some progress, adding that the administration prefers “the negotiated
diplomatic route and we’re going to give it every chance to succeed.” However,
President Donald Trump said that he will not allow Iran to control the key
Strait of Hormuz as part of a deal.
These comments came after Iranian state
television had earlier said that Tehran is committed to restoring commercial
traffic through the Strait of Hormuz back to prewar levels within one month of
an agreement with the U.S., Reuters reported. The White House denied the report
about a memorandum of understanding as “a complete fabrication.”
Investors are awaiting the release of
April’s personal consumption expenditure price index reading, due out at 8:30
a.m. ET on Thursday. The index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge
of inflation, is especially important now that Kevin Warsh has taken the helm
as Fed chair.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a
month-over-month increase of 0.5% and year-over-year rise of 3.8%. Excluding
volatile food and energy prices, they anticipate gains of 0.3% and 3.3%,
respectively.
A rally in the technology sector has been
to thank for the move higher this year into new records for the stock market.
But Adam Crisafulli, founder and president of Vital Knowledge, believes that
investors should begin broadening their trades into the rest of the market.
“I definitely think that tech, at this
point, is very, very stretched on the upside. You’ve had a bunch of
bell-ringing events, whether it’s some of these IPOs that have been launching
or about to launch; trillion-dollar market-cap club,” he said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime”
on Wednesday afternoon. “So I think rotation is going to be kind of the game
plan for the rest of the summer.”
Royal
Bank of Canada, Dollar
Tree, Hormel Foods, Burlington Stores and Kohl’s will report earnings
before Thursday’s opening bell. Traders will also watch out for other economic
data releases like weekly jobless claims, April’s new home sales, personal
income and preliminary durable goods orders reports.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Piper
Sandler says Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for months and oil to hit new
highs
Published
Tue, May 26 2026 3:43 PM EDT
Piper
Sandler isn’t buying the talk that an Iran deal is nearing, telling clients
that the Strait of Hormuz will largely stay closed and oil will hit new highs.
“We
think the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for months yet, meaning
shortages become more urgent and oil hits new highs this Summer,” according to
a recent note from the investment bank’s energy and macro teams.
West Texas
Intermediate Futures are
down since Friday but bounced
back some on Tuesday with mixed messaging on a possible Iran deal over the long
weekend. The U.S. military said it conducted “self-defense
strikes”
in southern Iran, which included targeting Iranian missile launch sites and
vessels placing mines around the Strait of Hormuz. The news came after
President Donald Trump said Saturday that an agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated”, with details to
be announced shortly. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry has said navigation
through the vital shipping channel “will have costs.”
Piper
Sandler said it has very little confidence that the commercial traffic through
the Strait would return to even 50% of its pre-crisis levels, either next week
or next month.
The
U.S. has been “unwilling to press the fight” because the scale of Iran’s
retaliation could have broader implications for its neighbors and may further
disrupt global supply chains, the note said.
The
bank also argued that Iran’s leaders are unwilling to settle for any compromise
because they believe they have leverage, reinforcing concerns that the Strait
closure could extend for months.
Various
economies in the Middle East, Asia and Europe rely heavily on shipment through
the Strait, which is particularly important for oil and LNG exports from the
Middle East to Asia. The narrow passage that once carried about one-fifth
of the world’s seaborne oil has seen historic dips, with tracking data showing
vessel traffic falling sharply to near zero since the war escalated.
WTI
crude futures neared $120 a barrel during the onset of the conflict, but were
last trading around $94 a barrel. If Piper Sandler’s call for a new high comes
true, it would send quite a jolt to the global economy and undermine the stock
market comeback that has come as oil traded off that war-time high.
Piper Sandler says
Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for months and oil to hit new highs
In other news.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge On Lower Output,
Higher LNG Flows
By Alex Kimani - May 26, 2026, 2:30 PM CDT
U.S. natural gas prices surged on Tuesday,
with a combination of declining domestic output and an improving demand outlook
helping the gas market break past prior downward pressure from seasonal
maintenance. Henry Hub, the primary benchmark price for the North American
natural gas market, spot gas prices jumped 5.1%
to trade at 3.06/MMBtu in Tuesday’s mid-day session, with gas prices now
trading nearly 16% higher over the past month.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48
states slipped to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), with energy firms
dialing back production following a prolonged period of low spot prices. Daily
production fell by roughly 4.0 bcfd to a 15-week low of 106.1 bcfd, primarily
led by declines in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Meanwhile, feedgas flows to
liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities have begun recovering after spring
maintenance at major facilities like Freeport LNG and Golden Pass initially
restricted flows to 17.0 bcfd earlier in the month. Total LNG export demand
clocked in at roughly 3.0 bcfd higher year-over-year over the past 30 days,
with projections that total feedgas flows will climb steadily through the
summer and potentially reach up to 22 bcfd by year-end. Additionally, the early
arrival of cooling degree days (CDDs) across the East and South East has
boosted cooling demand at a time when the Middle East has restricted competing
global LNG flows. This has added a structural risk premium to U.S. contracts as
European and Asian buyers aggressively bid for American cargoes.
More
U.S. Natural Gas
Prices Surge On Lower Output, Higher LNG Flows | OilPrice.com
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
As
goes America, so goes the world?
Energy
inflation has been more persistent than expected: Fed’s Goolsbee
Published
Wed, May 27 2026 10:04 PM EDT
Energy
inflation tied to the war in Iran has lasted longer than expected, creating a
“stagflationary shock” for Asian economies, Chicago Federal Reserve President
Austan Goolsbee said Thursday.
Speaking
to CNBC’s Kaori Enjoji at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, Goolsbee said that
initial estimates in the futures markets had expected energy prices to be “a
lot lower” than current levels.
While
oil prices have eased recently on signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks,
prices remain well above levels seen before the war.
Brent crude futures,
the international benchmark, gained over 1.81% to $96 per barrel, while
the West Texas Intermediate
futures gained 1.71% to $90.21 per barrel.
That
compares with $72 price for Brent, and $67.02 for WTI the day before the U.S.
and Israel launched strikes on Iran.
Goolsbee
also sounded a warning for Asian economies, saying that, because they are
energy importers, “it’s more just a stagflationary shock of the old-fashioned
variety.”
The
Chicago Fed President, who voted
against the Federal Reserve’s final rate cut in 2025, said he
dissented because he wanted evidence that inflation would not be persistent.
“I don’t regret dissenting at that meeting, because the inflation has not
proved as temporary as was advertised at the beginning,” he added.
Still,
Goolsbee said that if inflation starts moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target,
interest rates would “ultimately settle at some place well below where they are
today.”
AI
‘overheating’ the economy
Asked
about the possibility that artificial intelligence could boost productivity,
Goolsbee said he was concerned financial markets may run ahead of the actual
economic benefits from AI adoption.
“My
concern is that future increases in productivity that make us rich may fuel
high equity prices that they are a increase in your wealth today, to know that
you’re going to be rich sometime in the future,” Goolsbee said.
“That
can encourage people to spend out of this wealth in the stock market or others,
and before the AI has actually increased the productivity, you can overheat the
economy in the near term.”
Goolsbee
said policymakers should watch for signs that stock market gains linked to AI
are spilling into broader inflation pressures.
More
Energy
inflation has been more persistent than expected: Fed's Goolsbee
Americans
Are About to Pay Even More at the Grocery Store
Wed,
May 27, 2026 at 3:30 PM GMT+1
(Bloomberg)
-- As Americans confront a surge in prices at the pump, another inflation wave
is headed for the grocery store.
A
combination of factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle
herd are already pushing up grocery prices at an above-average pace. In April,
they rose by the most in nearly four years, and economists say the impact of
the Iran war and a potential El Niño weather pattern will only add to pressures
into 2027.
The
hit to US household finances from higher grocery bills is set to intensify just
ahead of the November midterm elections, amplifying affordability as a defining
issue. And to a greater extent than the surge in gas prices, the slower-moving
food shock will be difficult to reverse quickly because the size of autumn
harvests is determined by planting decisions made in the spring.
“It’s
going to be a challenging year,” said Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at
California Polytechnic State University who previously worked at the US
Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. “Food is going to become
less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it.”
The
latest USDA food price outlook, published Friday, projected a 3.2% advance in
grocery prices this year, while Volpe said he expects inflation more on the
order of 4% to 4.5%.
James
Giese of Madison, Wisconsin said he lives on his own but is making adjustments
with rising grocery prices like cutting back on prepared foods and meat. Giese,
62, is even trying to grow potatoes in his backyard to supplement his food
budget.
“I’m
very concerned,” he said. “I’m probably considered middle-income, but it’s
starting to pinch.”
Outsize
price increases so far in 2026 have reflected a mix of bad luck, trade policy
and slower-moving pressures linked to climate change. The weather in particular
has not been kind to American farmers, who have endured outbursts of
record-breaking heat, historic cold, ping-pong size hail and wildfires.
The
US saw its warmest-ever start to the year, with temperatures running about 6F
(3C) above average through the end of April, according to the National Centers
for Environmental Information. The early heat prompted some domestic crops to
begin blossoming weeks ahead of schedule instead of remaining dormant
throughout the winter, leaving them exposed to subsequent frosts, according to
Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist.
Beef
prices, among the most politically sensitive in the US, rose to a record in
April thanks to the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, squeezed by drought and
high production costs.
Tomato
prices, meanwhile, surged 33% over the last two months after two winter storms
brought widespread damage during the peak of the growing season in Florida —
while shipments from Mexico were declining following the Trump administration’s
imposition of duties on imports.
More
Americans Are
About to Pay Even More at the Grocery Store
Mortgage
refinance demand drops 18% as rates hit highest level since August
Published
Wed, May 27 2026 7:00 AM EDT
Mortgage
rates continued their climb last week, making it harder for current homeowners
to save on a refinance. Potential homebuyers also pulled back a bit, causing
total mortgage application volume to drop 8.5% last week compared with the
previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally
adjusted index.
The
average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming
loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.65% from 6.56%, with points
rising to 0.65 from 0.60, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20%
down payment. The 30-year fixed rate has climbed 30 basis points over the past
five weeks to its highest level since August 2025.
Refinance
demand took the hardest hit, with those applications down 18% for the week.
They were still 19% higher than the same week one year ago. Last year at this
time the 30-year fixed rate was 33 basis points higher.
“There
were large declines in applications across loan types – conventional refinances
were down 14 percent, along with an 18 percent decrease for FHA applications
and a 34 percent decrease for VA applications. Overall, refinance applications
accounted for 38 percent of applications, the lowest share since June 2025,”
said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA, in a
release.
Applications
for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 0.4% for the week and were just 5%
higher than the same week one year ago.
“The
average loan size for a purchase application reached another survey high at
$473,600, as borrowers with smaller loan sizes were less active given the
higher rate environment and its negative impact on their purchasing power,” Kan
added.
Mortgage
rates moved very slightly lower to start this week, according to a separate
survey from Mortgage News Daily. Investors saw a potential de-escalation in the
war with Iran, which caused bond yields to drop and mortgage rates to follow.
Mortgage refinance
demand drops 18%
A new stagflation scare?
Global economy hits a wall as war, oil and inflation collide again
S&P
Global flash PMI surveys show Europe slipping into decline, US growth slowing
and inflation pressures intensifying as the West Asia conflict disrupts global
business activity.
MAY 25, 2026 / 13:38 IST
Global business growth
grinds to a halt in May as the conflict in West Asia exerted a growing toll on
major economies, according to Flash PMI surveys from S&P Global.
The report mentioned that
Europe is faced with the most severe impact, with the economies of both the
United Kingdom and the eurozone slipping into decline, while expansions in the
United States and Japan shifted into lower gears.
The report noted that
major economies faced stagflationary conditions, creating a significant
challenge for central bank policymakers.
"Services have
generally reported the worst deterioration in demand, whereas manufacturers
have continued to benefit in May from stockpiling....Manufacturing input price
inflation accelerated sharply among the major economies to reach a four-year high,
with energy prices also pushing up service inflation," the report said.
The report highlighted
that inflation updates for many of the world's largest economies will be in the
spotlight in the coming week as policymakers and markets assess the likely next
moves in interest rates.
After the US consumer
price index showed the annual rate of inflation rising to 3.8 per cent in
April, its highest since May 2023, the coming week's updated core PCE inflation
measure, which is widely touted as the Fed's preferred gauge, will be eagerly awaited.
"Kevin Warsh has
taken over as Chair of the US Fed's rate setting committee as inflation
indicators are flashing red," the report added.
As per S&P Global,
the CPI index previously rose at a 3.2 per cent annual rate in March, up 0.3
per cent from the prior month. The report observed that any large uplift would
add to market speculation that rates remained on hold for the rest of the year,
or that the next move could even be a hike.
"S&P Global's
flash US PMI survey hinted at yet another rise in price pressure in May as the
war triggered more cost growth among businesses," the report stated.
More
A new stagflation scare? Global economy hits a wall as war, oil and
inflation collide again
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Adani Green commissions largest battery storage system outside
China with 3.37 GWh capacity
Adani
Green Energy has commissioned a 3.37 GWh battery energy storage system at
Khavda, Gujarat, marking the world’s largest single-location BESS deployment
outside China. The company plans to scale storage capacity to 50 GWh over the
next five years.
May 26, 2026 18:54 IST
Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL), on Tuesday said it has commissioned a
3.37 Gigawatt-hour (GWh) battery energy Storage system (BESS), which it said is
the world’s largest single-location battery storage deployment outside
China and among the fastest executed globally.
The deployment includes the 1.37 GWh
capacity commissioned in March 2026, taking AGEL’s total operational BESS
capacity at Khavda, Gujarat to 3.37 GWh. The project was delivered within just
10 months of commencement of on-site construction, marking one of the
fastest utility-scale battery storage deployments globally.
The commissioning marks a major
milestone in strengthening grid reliability, peak-hour supply and enabling
renewable energy to deliver dependable, round-the-clock power at scale.
AGEL plans to add over 10 GWh of battery storage capacity in FY27 and
scale this to 50 GWh over the next five years.
AGEL’s 3.37 GWh BESS can store enough
clean energy to power nearly one million homes for an entire day,
supporting peak electricity demand of cities like Indore, Chandigarh or the
entire state of Goa. It can also power more than 12 million LED bulbs
continuously for ten hours.
Sagar Adani, Executive Director, AGEL,
said, “Large-scale energy storage will play a defining role in the next
phase of India’s clean energy transition. As renewable energy capacity scales
rapidly, storage infrastructure becomes critical for delivering reliable,
round-the-clock clean power.
Our investments in battery storage
reflect a long-term commitment to building future-ready clean energy
infrastructure at global scale.”
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Depressions and mass unemployment are not caused by the free
market but by government interference in the economy.
Ludwig von Mises
