Baltic
Dry Index. 1808 -26 Brent
Crude 81.13
Spot
Gold 2387 U S 2 Year Yield 4.36 -0.05
Government is best which governs least
Thomas Paine.
This weekend's gem, the last YouTube item, how the German Enigma machine worked.
In
the stock casinos, volatility rules for now as month-end approaches.
Volatility,
aka instability, is often a sign of an approaching top or bottom.
Getting
out early, near tops and bottoms, always trumps getting carried out last,
although you’ll never hear that from the Wall Street stock shills who make their
living off suckering in greater fool buyers.
If
next week follows the usual month-end pattern, it’s time once again to dress up
stocks and stock indexes for the all important money manager month-end bonuses.
Shame
about the US real economy entering an autos, goods, logistics, restaurants and consumer
spending recession. Commercial real estate and banking recessions come next.
Stocks
soar, Dow closes 650 points higher buoyed by bullish inflation report: Live
updates
UPDATED
FRI, JUL 26 2024 5:01 PM EDT
Stocks jumped
Friday, and Wall Street capped off a turbulent week on a positive note as
investors weighed fresh U.S. inflation data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied
654.27 points, or 1.64%, to finish at 40,589.34. The S&P 500 climbed 1.11% to
end at 5,459.10, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 1.03% to close at 17,357.88.
Friday’s
moves stem from a combination of oversold sentiment, a stronger-than-expected
GDP report Thursday and the view that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting
rates due to economic resilience, said CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall.
“Today’s
benign PCE report helped talk the market off the ledge,” he added. “With this
pullback, the great rotation lives on and breadth continues to be on our side.”
Investors
continued their pivot into cyclical areas of the market and small caps, with
the Russell 2000 rising 1.67%. Industrials and materials stocks rose, lifting
their respective S&P sectors about 1.7%. 3M skyrocketed
23%, leading
the industrials sector to the upside. The stock notched its best
day since at least 1972.
Some
technology names that have struggled amid this week’s sell-off gained, with
Microsoft and Amazon adding more than 1% each. Meta Platforms climbed nearly
3%. The S&P’s information technology sector surged about 1%.
Wall
Street also assessed June’s
personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation reading that is
preferred by central bank policymakers. On a monthly basis, headline
PCE rose 0.1% and 2.5% from a year ago. That was in line with
estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones.
This
positive inflation news has also lifted investor hopes for more
rate cuts this year, with the fed funds futures market pricing in cuts in
September, November and December.
“The
numbers have been coming in tamer,” said Ken Mahoney, president of Mahoney
Asset Management. “In housing and real estate, you’re starting to see some
cracks. They’re going to stop messing around, start cutting rates.”
That
data comes at the end of a volatile week on Wall Street. The S&P 500
declined 0.8%, while the Nasdaq lost 2.1%. Both indexes posted back-to-back
weekly losses for the first time since April. The Dow outperformed, adding
0.8%, and notching its fourth consecutive positive week for the first time
since May. The action came as investors seemed to participate
in a rotation into small caps and cyclicals.
Stock
market news for July 26, 2024 (cnbc.com)
European
stocks close higher as global selloff eases; NatWest up 7%
PUBLISHED
FRI, JUL 26 2024 2:26 AM EDT UPDATED FRI, JUL 26 2024 11:42 AM EDT
LONDON
— European markets closed higher on Friday as a global stock selloff eased and
investors reacted to U.S. inflation data.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 closed
0.9% higher London time, with nearly all sectors and major bourses across the
region trading in positive territory.
Construction
and material and household goods stocks led gains, up 1.8% and 1.7%
respectively. Travel and leisure stocks were also 1.6% higher.
Autos
recouped losses from earlier in the day after Germany’s Mercedes Benz said it was
narrowing its annual profit margin forecast.
British
bank NatWest rose as much
as 7.2% in afternoon trade after it reported that its pretax
operating profit fell by less than expected in the first half of
the year. The London-listed stock closed 7% higher.
European
equities have closed lower for the last two sessions amid a sharp downturn in
technology stocks stateside.
Overall,
Stoxx losses have eased from last week, when the regional index recorded its
worst performance since October.
The
U.S. personal
consumption expenditures price index for June came in as expected,
increasing 0.1% from the previous month and up 2.5% annually from a year ago.
The data comes ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week.
U.S.
stocks were higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
climbing 1.6%.
Asia-Pacific
markets largely rebounded Friday, as Tokyo’s headline inflation slowed
slightly to 2.2% in July from 2.3% in May.
European
markets: Global selloff eases; earnings, U.S. inflation (cnbc.com)
Next,
ignore the bad signals say the Wall Street stock promoters. This time it’s
different, right?
These
Two Market Indicators Are Flashing Warning Signals For US Stocks
July
25, 2024
The
Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to a three-month high of 18.46 yesterday as
the Q2 earnings season began with lacklustre reports from Tesla and Alphabet,
triggering a sell-off in the US stock market. The VIX, or the fear gauge,
measures the demand for protection against stock fluctuations.
The
S&P 500 dropped 2.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% amid
concerns about the sustainability of the year-long AI rally. The latest
sell-off reflects the stock market's susceptibility to downturns in Big Tech as
company stocks climbed higher to date on the AI hype despite extremely high
valuations.
Meanwhile,
legendary investor Warren Buffett's stock market valuation indicator reached a
record high of 200%, implying that stocks are highly overvalued. In late 2021,
the indicator reached the then-all-time high of 197%, shortly followed by a
year-long bear market. The "Buffett Indicator" divides the total US
stock market capitalisation by the latest quarterly GDP estimate. Buffett said
the metric is "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand
at any given moment." The indicator reached as high as 190% during the
2000 dot-com bubble.
---- Despite
the volatility, industry experts view the development as an orderly retreat.
"We're not seeing a whole lot of fear in the marketplace, meaning that
people aren't going out and trying to buy protection aggressively," said
Matthew Tym, head of equity derivatives trading at Cantor Fitzgerald.
"It's kind of very orderly and kind of passive, which indicates to me that
nobody's in a bad spot right here yet."
He
believes that solid stock market returns in recent months might help investors
overcome the latest uptick in volatility. Meanwhile, Dan Ives, senior equity
research analyst at Wedbush Securities, described the tech
sell-off as a "golden buying opportunity" for long-term investors.
The stock market volatility was also partly triggered by former President
Donald Trump's recent comments on tariffs and Taiwan. Still, Ives said the
former President's rhetoric can represent more "bark than bite."
Meanwhile,
Principal Asset Management's Todd Jablonski sees the sell-off as a tiny blip in
the AI wave and a potential Trump Administration won't impact the momentum of
US tech giants. He believes such volatility is typical during election seasons.
More
These Two Market
Indicators Are Flashing Warning Signals For US Stocks (msn.com)
Finally
in other news.
Ford
is losing $50k per EV - but its profits have plunged for another worrying
reason
PUBLISHED: 20:41,
25 July 2024 | UPDATED: 20:56, 25 July 2024
Shares
of Ford tumbled Thursday after the automaker's profits badly missed Wall
Street's expectations.
A
major reason for this was that it spent more than $2 billion in just three
months fixing customers' cars and trucks.
Another
is that it loses nearly $50,000 on every electric vehicle it sells - since they
cost more to produce.
The
vast losses on EVs and big bills to repair repeatedly faulty new cars landed a
one-two blow to the profits of the US’s second largest automaker.
Late
Wednesday Ford reported profits for the April to June quarter that were well
down on estimates.
Warranty
costs have vexed the nation's second-largest automaker for several years and
lopped billions off of its profits.
In
the second quarter, warranty and recall costs totaled $2.3 billion. That is
$800 million more than the first quarter and $700 million more than a year ago.
Shares
of Ford were tumbling Thursday after the automaker's profits badly missed Wall
Street's expectations.
Analysts
at Piper Sandler cited these 'unwelcome warranty headwinds' as the reason for
the stock slump.
'Ford
referenced quality problems on vehicles from the 2016 and 2021 model years, and
to address these concerns, the company is shouldering a higher-than-expected
warranty burden,' they said.
More
In other international trade news. But what about hackers?
Global
trade to go digital as UK and 90 other countries agree paperless switch
July
26, 2024
The
UK has joined nearly 100 other countries in agreeing to use new digital customs
systems which could save billions of pounds and streamline international trade.
Niniety-one
nations have agreed the E-commerce Joint Initiative at the World Trade
Organisation (WTO),
which commits countries to digitising customs documents and processes – meaning
printing off, filling in by hand and handing in forms at customs points will no
longer be required.
The
new agreement will also see nations use and accept digital forms and
e-signatures, reducing the need for businesses to physically sign contracts and
post them around the world.
The Government said the new
system, once fully implemented around the world, could help boost UK GDP by as much
as £24.2 billion – and even partial adoption could spark a significant boost to
the economy.
It
said the move to digital would also make global trade faster, fairer, cheaper
and more secure.
Business
and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: “We
are proud to play our part in securing the first ever global digital trade
agreement, cutting costs for business and delivering on this government’s
ambition to deliver economic growth.”
“Britain
is back and proudly playing her role as an outward looking trading nation.
Global digital trade is already estimated by the OECD to be worth around £4
trillion and counting but no common set of global rules exist. This is a huge
step forward in correcting that and ensuring British businesses feel the
benefit.”
Science
and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said: “This
global agreement aims to help people use technology safely by protecting them
from fraud, while driving economic growth through the digitalisation of trade
so it’s faster and more secure.”
“We
will leave no stone unturned in our work to share the benefits of technology
and drive economic growth by working with partners around the world to achieve
this.
Global trade to go digital as UK and 90 other countries agree paperless switch (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Fed's
Dudley now calling for Fed rate cut next week amid recession concerns
July 25, 2024
Investing.com -- Former New Federal Reserve
President Bill Dudley on Wednesday called for the Fed to cut rates as soon as
next week amid recession concerns, reversing his long-held view for the U.S.
central bank to persist with its higher for longer rate regime.
"The facts have changed, so I’ve changed my
mind. The Fed should cut, preferably at next week’s policy-making
meeting," Dudley said ahead of the Fed's July 30-31 policy meeting.
For a long while, the strength in the U.S. economy
suggested the Fed wasn't doing enough to slow growth as the stock market surged
and financial conditions remained loose -- but those facts have now
changed.
"Now, the Fed’s efforts to cool the economy are
having a visible effect," Dudley said, flagging that lower income
households are feeling the impact of higher rates on their credit cards
and auto loans at time when the labor market is cooling.
The signs of slowing growth are appearing in the the
labor market, Dudley adds, expressing concern about the three-month
average unemployment rate rising 0.43% from its low point in the prior 12
months to a rate that could spark a recession.
This rate is now very close to "the 0.5%
threshold that, as identified by the Sahm Rule, has invariably signaled a US
recession," the former NY Fed president said.
Dudley concerns about the labor market aren't
without merit as Fed chairman Jerome Powell also signaled recently that
softening in the labor market now warranted a closer eye.
“Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,”
Powell said earlier this month in testimony before the Senate Banking
Committee, noting that the "labor market has cooled really significantly
across so many measures."
Inflation, meanwhile, continues to slow to the Fed's
target. The Fed’s preferred consumer-price indicator, the core deflator
for personal consumption expenditures, was up 2.6% in May from a year earlier,
not "far above the central bank’s 2% objective," Dudley added.
Dudley acknowledges that the Fed may not want to cut
rates too soon and bear the risk of inflation rising once again, while
the Sahm Rule isn't something that holds sway at the Fed discussion table
yet.
At its meeting next week, the voting Fed members are
expected to vote in favor of keeping rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to
5.5%.
About 95% of traders expect the Fed to keep interest
rates steady at the July meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor
Tool.
Fed's Dudley now calling for Fed rate cut next week amid recession
concerns (msn.com)
Mercedes Cuts Margin Outlook After EV,
China Sales Plunge
July 26, 2024
(Bloomberg) --
Mercedes-Benz Group AG’s earnings plummeted 19% in the second quarter as sales
of its passenger electric vehicles dropped sharply and demand in China
weakened.
Group earnings
before interest and tax fell to €4.04 billion ($4.4 billion), Mercedes said
Friday. The company slightly lowered its carmaking margin outlook to as much as
11% from 12%.
Mercedes joins a
growing list of carmakers struggling with weaker demand in China and a drop in
purchases of battery-powered cars in Europe after governments began reducing or
ending financial incentives. Only BMW AG, Mercedes’ biggest premium-car rival,
has bucked the trend in Europe after rolling out several new battery models.
Global sales of
Mercedes’ passenger cars declined 3.7% to around 496,700 vehicles compared to
the same period last year, with sales of fully electric vehicles falling by a
quarter. Citing model changes and subdued demand in China, sales of top-end
models fell 17%.
Mercedes has cut
back electrification plans, including adjusting its battery ambitions, as it
prepares to spend more on its lucrative line-up of combustion-engine cars. At
the same time, it’s planning to roll out new all-electric models after its first generation of battery-powered cars fell short of
expectations.
Mercedes Cuts Margin Outlook After EV, China Sales Plunge (msn.com)
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Fact Check: Trump Didn't Advise People to 'Inject
Bleach' to Treat COVID-19. But This Is What He Did Say
Nick Hardinges
Thu, July 25, 2024 at 12:33 AM
GMT+1
Claim:
Former U.S. President Donald
Trump once suggested people inject bleach or other
disinfectants into their bodies to treat COVID-19.
What's True:
During an April 2020 media briefing, Trump did ask members of the government's coronavirus task force to look into whether disinfectants could be injected inside people to treat COVID-19. But when a reporter asked in a follow-up question whether cleaning products like bleach and isopropyl alcohol would be injected into a person, the then-president said those products would be used for sterilizing an area, not for injections.
What's False:
However, at no point did Trump explicitly tell people they could or should inject bleach into their bodies.
In late July, 2024, an X
user posted a video of U.S. President Joe Biden claiming former President Donald Trump
once said "just inject a little bleach into your vein" to deal with
COVID-19. Another example of the clip was posted on X in late
April 2024.
Biden repeated the claim
— which related to comments his predecessor made in April 2020 — during the
first presidential candidates' debate of the 2024 election campaign.
In his opening remarks of the CNN television debate in June
2024, the president said the pandemic was "badly handled" by Trump
and "many people were dying." He then claimed (at 3:27 in the video below) the former
president once told people to "inject a little bleach in your arm; it'd be
all right."
Social media users repeated similar versions of this assertion on X in mid-July 2024.
However, examples of this claim had been circulating online for four years, following a media briefing conducted by Trump in late April 2020,
during which the then-president discussed using disinfectants, such as bleach,
in the U.S. government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Though Trump's comments
made little sense and were ridiculed and described as dangerous by experts, under any reasonable
interpretation of his words, he didn't explicitly suggest people should inject
themselves with bleach or other household disinfectants.
Instead, while floating
the idea to the government's coronavirus task force and the media, Trump asked
whether injecting disinfectants "inside" could help fight the virus,
as we further outline below. Therefore, because Biden's remarks were at best a
misinterpretation and at worst a misrepresentation of what Trump said, we rated
this claim "Mostly False."
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Startup makes technology breakthrough that could expedite
development and deployment of solar power plants — here's how it could change
energy
July 25, 2024
Planted Solar, a California-based solar
power plant development startup, is shaking up the solar industry by using
robots and specialized modeling software to speed up deployment.
In response to the urgent need for
quickly scalable carbon-free energy, the team is focused on installing as many
high-density arrays as possible while reducing development costs.
According to Bloomberg, Planted
Solar accomplishes both goals by
installing the panels "like a blanket" on land that is typically
unviable for any other use. Packing the arrays close together minimizes the
space required while allowing for higher energy outputs per acre.
Per CB Insights, the company was founded in 2020 and
has raised over $21 million in Series A funding to support its mission to
streamline solar farm execution and "rapidly power the world with clean
and abundant energy," as its LinkedIn page states.
Most of the company's funding came from
a $20 million investment from Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy Ventures and
Khosla Ventures, as Bloomberg reported.
The team aims to scale up its deployment
to bring terawatts of energy online while reducing the environmental impacts of solar farms. This will result in cheaper solar power for communities and a healthier planet.
Their unique installation system uses
cutting-edge design software to push development plans to construction robots,
which assemble the farm. Relying on robots allows the team to reduce project
time and labor costs, as the company explained to Bloomberg.
Planted Solar says its rapid solar
deployment system can double energy output per acre, producing 1 megawatt of
power per 2 acres instead of the 5 acres needed for most solar farms.
Planted told Bloomberg that this makes project costs 50% cheaper by reducing
the land, resources, and installation time required, giving customers faster
access to affordable, pollution-free power.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another
almost unknown composer to modern audiences. A masterpiece. A German composer who spent his last 14 years
in London stunning audiences. Approx. 14 minutes.
Johann
Carl Christian Fischer (c.1733-1800) - Symphonie mit acht obligaten Pauken
(c.1780)
Johann Carl
Christian Fischer (c.1733-1800) - Symphonie mit acht obligaten Pauken (c.1780)
- YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 10 minutes.
Queen
Sacrifice In the King's Indian Defense!
Queen Sacrifice In
the King's Indian Defense! (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s final diversion. The Enigma
machine that helped end Hitler. Approx.19 minutes.
How
did the Enigma Machine work?
How did the Enigma
Machine work? (youtube.com)
There are two distinct classes of men - those who pay taxes and
those who receive and live upon taxes.
Thomas Paine.
