Baltic
Dry Index. 2729 -42
Brent Crude 88.64
Spot Gold 4195 Spot Silver 67.14
US 2 Year Yield 4.05 -0.08
US Federal Debt. 39.240 trillion
US GDP 32.205 trillion.
The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.
Niccolo Machiavelli
Day 104 of The Great Blunder of 2026. Probably The Greatest Blunder (so far,) of The Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, August 15, 1971.
As with August 15, 1971, when the global economy changed irreversibly, February 28, 2026 has also changed the global economy irreversibly. How a mouse that roared back, stalemated the greatest power on Earth.
Unfortunately, with massive disruption to supply chains in crude oil, LNG, LPG, fertiliser, aluminium, sulphur, some refined oil products, plus a giant disruption in shipping, it’s far too early to see clearly just how irreversibly the global economy has changed.
My early guess is that the major global central banks will now tolerate higher inflation and faster fiat currency depreciation. We will get more frequent bouts of stagflation. More and deeper recessions. Greater social discontent.
Another early guess, a faster global retreat from the dollar reserve standard, since blunderer Trump started tariff wars on friend and foe alike; coveted Canada and Greenland; told NATO Europe they were on their own; sucked up to Russia, China, and Netanyahu (causing an unnecessary war.)
Another early guess, crude oil pricing will settle much closer to $100 a barrel, than the pre-blunder price of about $60 a barrel.
Starting 2027 onwards, there will be big changes in the global food supply chain, though I suspect the G-20 countries will be least affected.
All in all, tomorrow will not be like today which was like yesterday. Tomorrow will be more difficult for most, though politicians, I suspect, will try to shift most of the blame onto AI.
In the stock casinos, Tulip Mania 2026 style.
In Trump’s blunder, another TACO.
In shipping, piracy.
SpaceX to Make Musk World’s First
Almost-Trillionaire
June 11, 2026 at 10:59 PM GMT+1
The decision by US President Donald Trump
and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wage a surprise war on Iran,
and the global energy crisis triggered by its retaliation, has
damaged two-thirds of the world’s economies.
This from the World Bank, which on
Thursday cut its outlook for growth in part because of the war’s
disruption of commodity flows and rising import costs. The global economy will
expand 2.5% in 2026, it said, the slowest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic
caused a global recession in 2020.
“This is the biggest supply shock in more
than 50 years,” said Chief Economist Indermit Gill. “If the conflict persists,
the next thing that will be affected is food prices.” The bank said risks to
its outlook are skewed to the downside. Global growth could fall to 1.3% this
year if “energy supply disruptions prove more severe than assumed and are
accompanied by substantial financial stress.” —David
E. Rovella
The
World’s First Almost-Trillionaire: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Oil prices fall on hopes of U.S.-Iran deal despite
Tehran pushback
Published Thu, Jun 11 2026 8:53 PM EDT
Oil prices fell Friday after U.S.
President Donald Trump said Washington had reached a framework agreement with
Iran, raising hopes the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end.
U.S. crude oil futures for
July delivery fell 1.61% to $86.30 per barrel, while August futures for
international benchmark Brent lost
1.75% to $88.8 per barrel.
Speaking at the Oval Office, Trump said he
expects an agreement to be signed “over the next few days,” assertions he has
made several time during the conflict. He also said the Strait of Hormuz would
reopen once a deal is finalized.
Earlier in the day, Trump said he had
called off a planned round of U.S. military strikes against Iran, arguing that
negotiations with Tehran “have been brought to the highest level of Iranian
leadership and approved.”
Tehran pushed back on Trump’s claim, with Iranian state-affiliated outlet Fars reporting on Telegram that Tehran had not approved any draft text for an initial memorandum of understanding with Washington.
In a subsequent post, Fars portrayed
Trump’s announcement as a step back from his earlier military threats, saying
he had failed to present any new elements beyond a proposal Iran had already
submitted.
“The reality is that up until now, not
only has Iran not given a final response, but it is the US that has returned to
its previous demand,” Fars reported in a translated post. “Of course, it seems
that given that the US has accepted the text proposed by Iran, there is a
possibility of re-examining this text,” according to Fars.
BMO Capital Markets said oil prices have
remained surprisingly contained despite the recent fresh exchange of U.S.-Iran
strikes, with ongoing diplomatic efforts, alternative shipping routes around
the Strait of Hormuz and sharply lower Chinese crude imports helping offset
geopolitical risks.
Citi also echoed in a note on Friday that
sharply lower Chinese crude imports have helped moderate oil prices since the
start of the Middle East conflict, reducing fears of a bidding war for
supplies. The bank estimates China can keep imports near 8.7 million barrels
per day without materially depleting inventories, suggesting demand from China
may not provide a major boost to prices in the near term.
Oil
prices: WTI, Brent on hopes of U.S.-Iran deal despite Tehran pushback
Stock futures tick higher as Wall Street gears up
for SpaceX’s historic IPO: Live updates
Updated Fri, Jun 12 2026 12:14 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures were slightly higher
early Friday as traders looked ahead to SpaceX’s historic initial public
offering on Friday.
S&P 500 futures added
roughly 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100
futures rose 0.2%. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 43 points, or about
0.1%.
Stocks rallied on Thursday, following a
rebound in chip stocks and President Donald Trump signaling that
the U.S. and Iran could soon sign a
peace deal. The S&P
500 rose 1.75%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained
2.54%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average jumped 929.97 points, or 1.86%.
In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi advanced 7.01% on
Friday, while Japan’s Nikkei
225 rose 3.4%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was up
1.54%.
Trump on Thursday told reporters in the
Oval Office that a deal between the U.S. and Iran would have a “signing soon,
and the documents are in pretty final shape. It should be done and it should be
done pretty quickly.” The president added that under the deal, “Iran will never
have a nuclear weapon.” Equities had rallied earlier in the day, after Trump
said in a Truth Social post that he had called off the strikes
on Iran originally planned for Thursday evening.
Heading into Friday, all eyes will be
watching SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket maker, as it debuts on the Nasdaq. SpaceX,
set to go public under the ticker symbol SPCX, has set a fixed price of $135
per share, which would put its valuation at $1.77 trillion.
The company plans to sell 555.6 million
shares, amounting to a $75 billion fundraise that would be the largest
initial public offering in history. It’s more than triple the size of
Alibaba’s $22 billion offering in 2014, currently the biggest U.S. IPO to date.
If the IPO goes according to plan, it
could offer a major catalyst for stocks on Friday. But some investors are
concerned that due to the offering’s sheer size, it could pressure
the market. Even if the market can digest these new shares of SpaceX, IPOs
are known to be volatile, and Friday’s offering could trigger another rotation
in tech leadership as investors find capital to fund their new issues.
“History indicates that large IPO issuance
occurs during periods of strong equity market sentiment, but the added equity
supply can cause some indigestion. Household equity exposure already sits close
to an all-time high, which suggests they may sell existing holdings to fund
these new positions,” wrote Wells Fargo Investment Institute global equity
strategist Douglas Beath. “Combined with the ongoing geopolitical tensions and
the upcoming midterm elections, it could be one more reason for markets to display
greater choppiness in the second half.”
“We remain favorable on the AI theme and
the Information Technology sector but would not chase this run up,” he added,
noting that as of May 29 the sector has gained 37% since April compared to the
S&P 500′s 17% advance in the same period.
Thursday’s rally lifted the S&P 500
and Nasdaq Composite back into the green for the week, with the indexes on pace
to add 0.14% and 0.39%, respectively. The blue-chip Dow trailed behind, on pace
to end the week 0.04% lower.
Investors will also be watching for June’s
preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment index on Friday morning.
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news, piracy, since a blockade is an
act of war and the US has issued no declaration of war on Iran.
An early warning to stock up on basics and relatively cheap stock able foods and to help the poor.
Three Indian sailors dead after US strike on oil
tanker off Gulf of Oman
Thu, 11 June 2026 at 9:08 am BST
All three missing Indian seafarers have
died after a US military strike on a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, Indian
shipping minister Sarbananda Sonowal said on Thursday.
The vessel, identified as the
Palau-flagged oil
products tanker Settebello,
was carrying oil from Iran when it came
under attack. The strike is the latest escalation in a US-led blockade
targeting Iran-linked shipping routes.
According to the US military's Central
Command (Centcom), American forces targeted the tanker after it allegedly
ignored repeated instructions.
A US aircraft "fired precision
munitions into the ship's engine room after the crew repeatedly failed to
comply with directions from American forces", Centcom said.
The US military said it
"disabled" the vessel while it was sailing through the Gulf of Oman
and accused it of violating "the
ongoing blockade by
attempting to transport oil from Iran".
Two Indian sources familiar with the
matter told Reuters that Delhi summoned the US deputy chief of mission and
conveyed a "strong protest" over the incident on 10 June.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
earlier condemned what it described as an "attack on the commercial vessel
Settebello".
"Our embassy in Oman is closely
monitoring the situation and proactively coordinating with the Omani
authorities in the ongoing search and rescue operation," the ministry said
in a statement.
The ministry added that 21 Indian crew
members had been rescued.
"The targeting of commercial shipping
and civilian infrastructure in the region must end," it said.
The tanker reported an engine room fire
about 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Sohar port, according to the United
Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency.
The Omani Navy responded to the distress
call, according to British maritime risk management group Vanguard.
Data from ship-tracking platform
MarineTraffic showed that the tanker was partially loaded and was last recorded
off the Omani coast on 1 June.
The attack comes amid a broader US
campaign against Iran-linked shipping. The blockade began on 13 April after
Iran sharply restricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of
the world's most important oil and gas routes.
Centcom said its forces have disabled
eight vessels since the blockade began. It said 134 ships had changed course
after complying with US instructions, while 42 vessels carrying humanitarian
supplies were allowed to continue.
The military said there had been no
reported deaths linked to previous blockade operations.
More
Three Indian
sailors dead after US strike on oil tanker off Gulf of Oman - Yahoo News UK
El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes,
scientists say
11 June 2026, 14:01 BST
El Niño - the natural Pacific weather
pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has officially begun, US
scientists say.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Niño conditions are now under way in
the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in
recent months.
Many forecasts suggest this could end up
as a so-called "super" El Niño, and even be among the strongest ever
recorded.
Coming on top of decades of human-caused
warming, it could bring another record-hot year - most likely in 2027 - with
disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.
This announcement by NOAA is not a
surprise as forecasters have expected this warming phase, after the cooler
"sister" pattern, La Niña, ended earlier this year.
Sea surface temperatures in the central
and tropical Pacific have now passed the 0.5C-above-average threshold that US
scientists use to define an El Niño event.
"El Niño conditions developed over
the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," the agency said.
NOAA has also seen the winds above the
equatorial Pacific begin to shift - a sign that the atmosphere is now
responding to the warmer ocean, not just the ocean warming on its own.
What has surprised the researchers is how
confident the computer models already are about its strength.
El Niño's intensity is measured by how far
sea surface temperatures rise above average in a key zone of the Pacific.
A strong event is defined as more than
1.5C above average; a very strong one above 2C.
According to NOAA's June outlook,
"there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January,
that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going
back to 1950," the agency said.
The three strongest events since then have
been in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.
Some of the latest US and European (ECMWF)
models go further, showing temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially
climbing more than 3C above average by the end of the year.
But the US agency urged some caution on
what their strength prediction implies.
"Even very strong El Niño events do
not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more
significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes."
El Niño has begun, scientists say,
and could bring record heat - BBC News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
ECB
hikes interest rates for first time since 2023 as Iran war ramps-up energy
costs
Published
Thu, Jun 11 2026 8:16 AM EDT
The
European Central Bank announced a quarter-point rate hike on Thursday, bringing
its key interest rate to 2.25% as the Iran war continues to blow inflation off
target.
Markets
had been pricing in a near-100% chance of the ECB raising rates by at least 25
basis points ahead of its June Governing Council meeting, according to LSEG
data.
The
ECB’s Governing Council said the decision had been made in a bid to ward off
inflationary pressures generated by the U.S.-Iran war.
“The
war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to
raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock
might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area,” it said in
a statement announcing the decision.
The
central bank also raised its inflation forecasts, saying it now expects
headline inflation in the euro zone to average 3% in 2026 before cooling to
2.3% next year and 2% in 2028.
Officials
said the growth outlook had been trimmed to reflect “a more pronounced impact
of the war on commodity markets, real incomes and confidence.”
“The
outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks
for economic growth,” the statement said. “The full implications of the war for
medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of
the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect and second-round
effects.”
The
Iran war — which recently crossed the 100-day mark — has caused
a global energy price shock, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz waterway
and destruction of energy production facilities in the Middle East have created
severe supply constraints. A fragile ceasefire remains in place, but tensions have escalated between
Washington and Tehran in recent days.
More
ECB hikes interest
rates for first time since 2023 as Iran war ramps up energy costs
Wholesale
prices rose 1.1% in May, more than expected
Published
Thu, Jun 11 2026 8:33 AM EDT
Wholesale
prices rose more than expected in May, indicating that pipeline inflationary
pressures are percolating higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
Thursday.
The
producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased a seasonally
adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at
6.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a monthly move of
0.7%.
The
annual headline inflation rate was the highest since November 2022. The monthly
gain matched the April increase.
However,
excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared to the
consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of
the inflationary burden.
Taking
out food, energy and trade services, PPI accelerated 0.8%, the biggest
one-month move since March 2022. On a 12-month basis, the core excluding trade
services rose 5.1%, the most since October 2022.
Most
of the acceleration in the PPI — nearly 80% — came from a 2.8% surge in final
demand goods prices, the biggest increase ever in a data series going back to
December 2009. In turn, 80% of that increase came from a 10.7% jump in energy.
Producer price
index May 2026:
Germany
risks recession as Iran energy shock hits growth, DIW economists say
11
June 2026
Germany’s Recovery Has Hit Another Energy Wall
Germany had been trying to climb out of years of weak
growth.
Now DIW Berlin says that recovery is at risk of
slipping into a technical recession. The institute expects output to contract
slightly in both the second and third quarters of 2026 before stabilizing late
in the year. Economists commonly define a technical recession as two
consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
That is the central warning.
Germany may still post modest annual growth, but the
path through the year could include a mid-year contraction.
DIW Cut Its Forecast In Half
DIW now forecasts German growth of 0.5% in 2026 and 0.8%
in 2027.
That is around half a percentage point lower than the
institute expected in spring. The downgrade reflects the effect of the Iran-war
energy shock on Europe’s largest economy.
This is not a collapse forecast.
It is a warning that the recovery is too fragile to
absorb a major energy shock without stalling.
The Energy Shock Is Hitting Households First
Higher oil and gas prices feed quickly into consumer
costs.
DIW expects German inflation to reach 2.9% in
2026 and 3% in 2027, above the European Central Bank’s 2%
target. Higher energy costs reduce household purchasing power, especially when
wages and benefits do not immediately keep pace.
That matters because consumption was supposed to help
support the recovery.
If households spend more on fuel, heating, transport,
and food, they have less left for everything else.
Companies Face A Confidence Problem
The shock is also hitting firms.
Energy costs raise production expenses, especially for
manufacturers, transport companies, chemicals, metals, and other
energy-intensive sectors. At the same time, uncertainty makes firms more
cautious about investment, hiring, and expansion.
The European Commission’s spring forecast described the
Middle East conflict as a major energy shock, noting that gas prices rose 50%
and crude oil prices 65% between February 27 and April 29, the cut-off date for
its forecast assumptions.
For Germany, that kind of shock lands on an economy
already struggling with weak industrial momentum.
This Is Not 2022, But It Rhymes
DIW’s head of forecasting, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, said
the shock is “noticeably slowing the recovery,” but added that Germany is not
seeing a repeat of 2022–23. The reason is that energy supply is more secure and
Germany is less dependent on fossil fuel imports than it was after Russia’s
full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
That distinction is important.
Germany is less vulnerable than it was during the
Russian gas crisis, but less vulnerable does not mean safe. A global oil and
LNG shock can still raise costs, squeeze consumers, and slow industry.
More
Germany risks
recession as Iran energy shock hits growth, DIW economists say
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Today, an Ebola update. Not
good.
DR Congo Ebola cases rise to 635,
recoveries reach 30: health minister
Source: Xinhua| 2026-06-11 02:41:00
KINSHASA, June 10 (Xinhua) --
The number of confirmed Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(DRC) has risen to 635 as of June 9, Health Minister Roger Kamba said
Wednesday.
In a post on social media
platform X, Kamba said the outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo Ebola virus,
continues to pose challenges, but the response is gaining momentum, with more
patients recovering and contact tracing improving.
According to Kamba, the
proportion of contacts under follow-up has increased to 61.1 percent, up from
56.4 percent a day earlier. He said health authorities are monitoring
"every zone, every alert and every signal," as vigilance remains
high.
Kamba also announced eight
new recoveries, including seven in Nyankunde and one in Mongbwalu, both in the
eastern province of Ituri. The new recoveries brought the total number of
recovered patients to 30.
"Each recovery sends a
strong message: come for treatment, as early care saves lives," he said.
The minister added that 490
tonnes of medicines have been deployed, laboratories strengthened and response
teams mobilized around the clock in Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu provinces.
The DRC declared its latest
Ebola outbreak on May 15. On May 17, the World Health Organization declared the
outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
DR Congo Ebola cases rise to 635, recoveries reach 30: health
minister-Xinhua
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a never-ending war weekend or a peace weekend? Something in
between? Have a great weekend everyone. King Charles Trooping the Colour spectacle
tomorrow.
It should be borne in mind that there is nothing more difficult
to arrange, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through than
initiating changes. The innovator makes enemies of all those who prospered
under the old order, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who
would prosper under the new. Their support is lukewarm ... partly because men
are generally incredulous, never really trusting new things unless they have
tested them by experience.
Niccolo Machiavelli
