Thursday, 30 April 2026

ECB, BOE D-Day. Stocks, Dress Up Month-End. A World Falling Apart.

Baltic Dry Index. 2670 -07     Brent Crude 125.36

Spot Gold  4547                          Spot Silver 72.26

US 2 Year Yield 3.92 +0.08

US Federal Debt. 39.181 trillion

US GDP 31.371 trillion.

The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem.

Milton Friedman

Little need for my input this morning. Unless sanity returns to the District of Crooks, get ready for Trump’s Great Depression Two.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as oil climbs on Iran tensions, Fed holds rates

Published Wed, Apr 29 2026 7:47 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Thursday, tracking overnight losses in key Wall Street benchmarks as oil prices hit a wartime high following a report that the U.S. military would brief President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.

Oil climbed after Axios, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter, reported that the U.S. Central Command was set to present Trump plans for possible military action against Iran.

Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the naval blockade will remain in place until a broader nuclear agreement is reached. 

June futures for international benchmark Brent crude rose more than 5% to $124.5 a barrel Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added over 2% to $109.41.

Brent crude has surged to its highest levels since mid-2022, LSEG data shows, as the Middle East conflict chokes supplies.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.43%.

Japanese markets declined as trading resumed after a holiday. The benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.91%, while the Topix fell 1.48%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.36% higher while the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.25%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.36%, while the CSI 300 added 0.21%.

In the U.S., futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 128 points, or 0.2%.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower. The 30-stock index fell 280.12 points, or 0.57%, to close at 48,861.81 and notch a fifth straight losing day. The S&P 500 inched down 0.04% to close at 7,135.95, while the Nasdaq Composite crept up 0.04% to 24,673.24.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

Brent crude hits 4-year high, soaring past $126, as U.S. military to reportedly brief Trump on action against Iran

Published Wed, Apr 29 20268:28 PM EDT

Oil hit a 4-year high Thursday following a report that the U.S. military would brief President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran, raising worries that armed conflict could resume, and building on the American blockade of Iranian exports.

Axios reported that the U.S. Central Command was set to present Trump plans for possible military action against Iran, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.

Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the naval blockade will remain in place until a broader nuclear agreement is reached. 

June futures for international benchmark Brent crude rose 6.84% to $126.10 a barrel as of 12:22 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 3.14% to $110.24.

Brent crude has surged to its highest levels since early 2022, LSEG data shows, as the Middle East conflict chokes supplies.

Trump appeared to threaten Iran in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, saying the country “better get smart soon!”

“Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!” Trump said. The post was accompanied by an AI-generated picture of Trump holding a gun with explosions in the background, and the words “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”

Goldman Sachs estimates that exports through the Hormuz chokepoint have fallen to just 4% of normal levels, while stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a continued U.S. blockade tightening supplies. 

Constrained Iranian exports and limited storage capacity could deepen supply disruptions if the blockade persists, the bank’s analysts said, adding that boost to output from the UAE following its OPEC exit is likely to materialize more gradually over the medium term rather than offsetting near-term tightness.

However, the bank flagged emerging downside risks to demand, noting global oil consumption in April may be about 3.6 million barrels per day lower than February levels, with weakness concentrated in jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks.

Brent crude soars past $126 as U.S. military to brief Trump on action against Iran

Finally, a different view on the Great Trump Error on war in the Persian Gulf.

A very different Iran reality provided by President Reagan's Director of the Office of Management and Budget, a conservative Republican.

It might not matter much though as I think the USA and UK and EU have a serious imminent diesel shortage crisis hitting later next month.

Practically all that moves on the Missouri-Mississippi complex, Great Lakes, St. Lawrence Seaway complex, moves by diesel power. Probably the Mackenzie river too.

In Europe, the Rhine complex, the Danube complex, the Elbe, Rhone, River Po, moves by diesel power.

In road transportation, the vast majority of goods transportation also moves by diesel.

David Stockman thinks Iran can hold out for at least another 60 days. I don't think diesel transportation can last, as we know it, for another 30 days.

Hoping again to be wrong.

Soon Comes The Mother Of All Supply Shocks, Part 1

The Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down

Iran war is accelerating shift from an oil market structured around economic efficiency toward one shaped by politics and conflict

By David Uberti April 29, 2026 5:30 am ET

The Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down - WSJ

$200 oil — and two other scenarios — could tip the world into recession, says this global bank

By  Steve Goldstein Published: April 29, 2026 at 5:48 a.m. ET

$200 oil — and two other scenarios — could tip the world into recession, says this global bank - MarketWatch

Airlines across Europe could shut down over high fuel prices, warns Wizz Air CEO

Wizz Air CEO József Váradi said carriers already facing financial difficulties may be especially vulnerable, and suggested British Airways and Air France could also encounter challenges

11:00, 29 Apr 2026Updated 11:10, 29 Apr 2026

Airlines across Europe could shut down over high fuel prices, warns Wizz Air CEO - Daily Star

In other news. 

Tariffs Leave Consumers and Companies Splitting the Tab

Consumers shouldered 43% of the tariff burden during the seven months after the US imposed sweeping levies, according to an analysis by Alberto Cavallo, who has been tracking how tariffs impact prices.

Featuring Alberto F. Cavallo. By Ana Elena Azpúrua on April 27, 2026.

How hard did a year of major tariff announcements, trade negotiations, and rollbacks hit US consumers? Prices surged at first, but then stabilized—until the war with Iran began.

US consumers absorbed up to 43% of the tariff burden after the first seven months of the new tariffs, with the remaining portion borne by US companies, according to estimates by the Harvard Business School Pricing Lab Tariff Tracker. While retail prices rose quickly following each levy announcement in 2025, they gradually leveled off through February 27, the latest data available in the tracker.

“Most of the pass-through has likely already occurred, assuming tariffs do not increase further,” explains Alberto Cavallo, the Thomas S. Murphy Professor of Business Administration at HBS and founder of the Pricing Lab. “This stability may be due to the rollback of certain tariffs by the US government and the increasing likelihood of the Supreme Court ruling against them.”

Cavallo’s team plans to continue its price analysis to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran, which began February 28 and immediately roiled markets and trade. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, jumped to 3.3% in the year through March from 2.4% in February. In the meantime, here’s an updated look at prices during the past year, capturing product shifts and “cheapflation.”

Imported goods saw larger price hikes

Compared to pre-tariff trends, prices for imported goods rose about 7 percentage points, nearly twice the increase for domestic goods (4.6 points).

----Cheapflation hits lower-priced goods harder

Prices accelerated more for budget picks than for premium items within the same category. This trend of "cheapflation" probably had a greater impact on lower-income households.

----From swimwear to coffee, many goods became more costly

Cavallo’s analysis showed that prices of household goods rose the most. While consumers were asked to pay significantly more for coffee and some clothes. Hover over the images to see details:

----Tariffs' impact on US inflation

Researchers found that the contribution of tariffs to the Consumer Price Index has increased over time, as measured by actual price changes relative to pre-tariff trends.

More, plus charts.

Tariffs Leave Consumers and Companies Splitting the Tab | Working Knowledge

Jamie Dimon warns of ‘some kind of bond crisis’ ahead as global debt risks build

Published Tue, Apr 28 2026 11:55 AM EDT Updated Tue, Apr 28 2026 2:44 PM EDT

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned that rising government debt levels could trigger a crisis in the bond market, urging policymakers to act before markets force their hand.

Dimon’s statement was in response to a question about whether he was worried about rising levels of government debt “around the world and in your country.”

“The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it,” Dimon said at an investment conference held by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world.

“I’m not that worried we’ll be able to deal with it,” Dimon said. “I just think maturity should say you should deal with it, as opposed to let it happen.”

Dimon, who runs the world’s largest bank by market cap, said history has shown that today’s growing mix of risks could combine in unpredictable ways. While the timing is uncertain, failing to address those pressures increases the odds that adjustment comes after upheaval rather than deliberate policy moves.

“The level of things that are adding to the risk column are high, like geopolitics, oil, government deficits,” Dimon said. “They may go away, but they may not, and we don’t know what confluence of events causes the problem.”

A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity, where investors rush to sell and buyers recede, typically forcing central banks to step in as buyers of last resort.

A recent example is the 2022 U.K. gilt crisis, when yields on the U.K. government bonds surged and the Bank of England had to step in to stabilize the market.

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon addressed risks he saw in the credit cycle and the pace of artificial intelligence adoption and his insights into setting corporate culture.

While he didn’t think that private credit, at about $1.7 trillion, was large enough to be a systemic risk to the U.S. economy, he did say that the larger risk was that a downturn across all lending categories would be harsher than expected.

“We haven’t had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think,” Dimon said. “It might be terrible.”

Jamie Dimon warns of 'bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build

Panic in India as entire airline industry 'on brink of collapse'

28 April 2026

The Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA) has pleaded for urgent assistance from the Ministry of Civil Aviation, stating that current jet fuel pricing is causing extreme stress on the industry. In a letter to the Centre, the FIA, a premier industry body which represents major domestic airlines including IndiGo, SpiceJet and Air India, said this stress has brought the airline industry to the brink of collapse.

"The airline Industry in India is under extreme stress and is on the verge of closing down or of stopping its operations. The dire condition of the Aviation Sector has been exacerbated by the West Asia War and the exorbitant increase in the price of ATF [Aviation Turbine Fuel]," the letter reads.

The federation added that due to the increase in the price of ATF by Rs.73 (£0.60) per litre for both international and domestic flights, operations have become "completely unviable".

This price increase has resulted in "significant losses for the aviation sector in April 2026," the FIA said, according to the Hindustan Times.

The April 2026 pricing outcomes "do not ensure parity between domestic and international operations," the airline body added.

The revised prices for aviation turbine fuel come amid the oil and gas supply crisis brought on by the US and Israel's war on Iran. The ongoing conflict has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for around 20% of the world's energy supply.

The war has driven the price of Brent Crude up from $72 per barrel (£58) to $118 per barrel (£96). Consequently, the ATF price (MOPAG and Premium) has surged from $87.24 (£70) to a high of $260.24 (£211) per barrel - a 295% increase - and is currently trading at $235.63 (£190) per barrel. This marks a significant rise compared to the pricing in March 2025, the FIA added.

The airline body said ATF pricing is usually around 30-40% of the airline's cost. However, with pricing rising due to the US-Iran war, the increase in ATF costs has now pushed airline operating costs to 55-60%.

"Add to this, the Rupee has also depreciated further to its lowest level, adding additional burden on Airlines in terms of ATF Pricing," the body noted.

In response to the ongoing crisis, the airline body has presented three key recommendations to the government. These include the reinstatement of the crack band in line with a pre-agreed formula, which refers to the margins refineries make when converting crude oil into final products. They have also called for a temporary deferment of the excise duty on ATF, which is currently set at 11% for domestic operations.

Finally, the airline body is requesting a reduction in VAT for key states like Delhi and Tamil Nadu, pointing out that cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Kolkata-covering over 50% of airline operations in India- currently face VAT rates ranging from 16% to 20%.

"Applying the same framework consistently will ensure parity, reduce the financial burden and enable Indian airlines to compete more effectively with global counterparts," it said.

Panic in India as entire airline industry 'on brink of collapse'

UK cake factory shuts down after 400 years as 'cost of living crisis accelerates closures'

29 April 2026

A UK cake company has shut down after 400 years of business in yet another blow to Britain's economy.

Oxfordshire-based Brown's Original Banbury Cakes Limited has been managed over the last three decades by family owner Phillip Brown.

The family firm has been making its iconic Banbury cakes for close to four centuries, being based at a site in Parsons Street, Banbury, since the 1600s.

During the 1960s, the family's once-famous shop was closed down and replaced with a Japanese restaurant, but it has continued to trade since then.

A local specialty, Banbury cakes are spicy, currant pastries that are commonly made with mixed peel, brown sugar, rum, and nutmeg.

For centuries, Brown's Original Banbury Cakes Limited has kept its own family recipe for the cakes a secret.

According to documents found on the Companies House website, the company was dissolved on April 7, 2026.

Store and business closures have ramped up in recent years following the Covid-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical shocks.

Recent data suggests that more than 3,000 retail stores shut down for good in 2025, as 54 high street retailers ceased operations.

Critics have placed partial blame on Chancellor Rachel Reeves for this phenomenon due to her changes to the tax regime.

Over two Budgets, the Chancellor has scrapped business relief, raised National Insurance for employers, and hikes the National Living Wage.

Molly Monks F.I.P.A., insolvency specialist at Parker Walsh, said: "The transformation of retail was already underway, but the cost of living crisis has dramatically accelerated the closure of stores that might otherwise have survived another few years.

"Discretionary spending has collapsed in many categories and footfall on high streets outside major city centres remains stubbornly below pre-pandemic levels.

"Meanwhile, business rates continue to penalise physical retail in a way that online competitors simply do not face, an imbalance that the government has failed to correct.

"Wage bill increases flowing from the new National Living Rate and higher employer National Insurance have been the final blow for many. The sad reality is this pipeline of closures is far from over."

UK cake factory shuts down after 400 years as 'cost of living crisis accelerates closures'

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

UK economy set for £35bn hit from Middle East energy crisis, think tank says

Henry Saker-Clark, Press Association Deputy Business Editor

Wed, 29 April 2026 at 10:40 am BST

The Middle East energy shock could wipe around £35 billion from the UK economy over the next two years in a “best-case” scenario, an economic think tank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that a more protracted crisis in the Middle East could see the UK enter a recession in the second half this year.

The group’s latest quarterly economic projections pointed to an increasingly gloomy outlook as the war between US-Israeli and Iranian forces weighs on economies globally, with the UK set for slower growth and rising inflation.

It indicated that the Bank of England’s committee rate-setters are likely to increase interest rates this summer as a result, with the potential for up to six more hikes in a more severe scenario.

On Thursday, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote on whether to keep interest rates at their current level of 3.75%.

Niesr said it expects interest rates to be held at this meeting, but predicted they will be increased to 4% in July – staying at this level through the rest of the year.

However, it said a severe scenario, which would see further inflationary pressure from a continuing conflict, could result in rates rising as high as 5.25%.

In its best-case scenario which would include a resolution in the Middle East this year, the organisation still pointed towards a slowdown in economic growth to 0.9% for 2026, compared with 1.4% growth in 2025.

The group said growth is likely to improve marginally to 1% in 2027.

In its previous outlook, Niesr had predicted 1.4% growth this year and 1.3% growth in 2027.

Even with a swift resolution to the conflict, Niesr said the UK economy will be around £35 billion smaller in 2026 and 2027, casting uncertainty over the Chancellor’s ambitions to grow the UK economy.

However, Niesr’s deputy director for macroeconomics Stephen Millard said an adverse situation is likely to knock around 0.4 percentage points off growth over the next two years.

The forecasts also indicated that inflation, which lifted to 3.3% last month, will slow to 2.5%.

But it is then expected to shoot higher as higher energy prices drive further inflation, with it expected to peak at 4.1% in January next year.

Niesr said it expects inflation will not drop back to the Bank of England’s 2% target rate until 2028 as a result.

Inflation is set to surpass wage growth, which is predicted to slow to 3.3% next year, putting pressure of household finances.

More

UK economy set for £35bn hit from Middle East energy crisis, think tank says - Yahoo News UK

'Gold is money': Billionaire Ray Dalio urges investors to put 5–15% into gold as Iran war threatens 20% of global oil supply

April 28, 2026

As the conflict involving Iran enters its ninth week, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a clear message to global investors. In times of uncertainty, he says, gold remains one of the most reliable stores of value.

Speaking in a recent interview, Dalio warned that the ongoing war is reshaping financial and geopolitical stability. He advised that investors should consider allocating between 5 and 15 per cent of their portfolios to gold.

A War With Global Consequences

The conflict has already begun to disrupt key global supply chains. At the centre of concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit routes.

Before the war, the narrow passage handled roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil. Since hostilities escalated, access has been severely restricted. This has raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions and sustained pressure on energy prices. Oil markets have reacted sharply. Prices have surged this year, reflecting both reduced supply and growing uncertainty over how long the disruption may last.

Dalio noted that control over the strait will be a decisive factor in how the conflict unfolds. He also pointed to broader concerns within the US, including rising fuel costs and political pressures linked to domestic elections.

Gold as a Form of Money

Dalio's argument rests on a simple premise. Gold is not just a commodity. It is, in his words, a form of money. He described gold as one of the oldest and most trusted stores of value. Central banks continue to hold it as a key reserve asset, second only to the US dollar. In periods of instability, investors often turn to gold as a hedge against volatility.

He also stressed its role as a diversifier. In uncertain markets, assets that move independently of stocks and currencies can help reduce overall risk. Gold prices have shown mixed movement during the conflict. While the metal has lost ground at certain points, it remains higher for the year overall. This reflects a balance between short-term market shifts and long-term demand for safe assets.

A Changing Financial Order

Beyond the immediate impact of the war, Dalio pointed to deeper structural changes in the global economy. He said the world is moving towards a more multipolar system. This includes a growing role for currencies such as China's renminbi in international trade. It also reflects the increasing use of sanctions, which has altered how countries manage reserves and conduct transactions.

These shifts, he argued, are changing the nature of money itself. In such an environment, traditional stores of value such as gold may regain prominence. Dalio also warned that the US could face a period of stagflation. This is marked by rising inflation alongside slower economic growth and weaker employment conditions.

More

'Gold is money': Billionaire Ray Dalio urges investors to put 5–15% into gold as Iran war threatens 20% of global oil supply

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Want to know how to kill the world? Just ask AI.

A.I. Bots Told Scientists How to Make Biological Weapons

Scientists shared transcripts with The Times in which chatbots described how to assemble deadly pathogens and unleash them in public spaces.

April 29, 2026

One evening last summer, Dr. David Relman went cold at his laptop as an A.I. chatbot told him how to plan a massacre.

A microbiologist and biosecurity expert at Stanford University, Dr. Relman had been hired by an artificial intelligence company to pressure-test its product before it was released to the public. That night in the scientist's home office, the chatbot explained how to modify an infamous pathogen in a lab so that it would resist known treatments.

Worse, the bot described in vivid detail how to release the superbug, identifying a security lapse in a large public transit system, Dr. Relman said, asking The New York Times to withhold the name of the pathogen and other specifics for fear of inspiring an attack. The bot outlined a plan to maximize casualties and minimize the chances of being caught.

Dr. Relman was so shaken he took a walk to clear his head.

“It was answering questions that I hadn’t thought to ask it, with this level of deviousness and cunning that I just found chilling,” said Dr. Relman, who has also advised the federal government on biological threats. He declined to disclose which chatbot produced the plot, citing a confidentiality agreement with its maker. The company added some safety guardrails to the product after his testing, he said, though he felt they were insufficient.

Dr. Relman is part of a small group of experts enlisted by A.I. companies to vet their products for catastrophic risks. In recent months, some have shared with The Times more than a dozen chatbot conversations revealing that even publicly available models can do more than disseminate dangerous information. The virtual assistants have described in lucid, bullet-pointed detail how to buy raw genetic material, turn it into deadly weapons and deploy them in public spaces, the transcripts show. Some have even brainstormed ways to evade detection.

More

A.I. Bots Told Scientists How to Make Biological Weapons - The New York Times

Longi sets world records for silicon solar cell and module efficiency

By Zheng Xin | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-04-28 13:40

Solar giant Longi Green Energy Technology Co announced two major technological breakthroughs, setting new world records for the conversion efficiency of both its crystalline silicon solar cells and modules.

The company's self-developed Hybrid Interdigitated-Back-Contact (HIBC) solar cell achieved a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 28.13 percent, according to an authoritative certification by the Institute for Solar Energy Research Hamelin (ISFH) in Germany.

The milestone marks another significant stride toward the theoretical efficiency limit of crystalline silicon solar cells, surpassing the company's previous record of 28.04 percent set in January 2026.

Longi also announced that its solar module — based on HIBC cell technology — reached an efficiency of 26.4 percent. Certified by the United States-based National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NLR, formerly NREL), the achievement breaks the company's prior module efficiency ceiling of 26 percent, it said.

Technological advancements by Chinese PV firms like Longi are crucial for driving down the levelized cost of electricity derived from solar power, making it an even more competitive and attractive energy source globally.

The company remains committed to developing groundbreaking technology and relentlessly driving improvements in converting solar energy to electricity in order to produce green, renewable, and cost-effective photovoltaic energy, it said.

Longi sets world records for silicon solar cell and module efficiency - Chinadaily.com.cn

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

The key insight of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations is misleadingly simple: if an exchange between two parties is voluntary, it will not take place unless both believe they will benefit from it. Most economic fallacies derive from the neglect of this simple insight, from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie, that one party can gain only at the expense of another.

Milton Friedman

 

Wednesday, 29 April 2026

UAE To Leave OPEC. Fed D-Day. ECB Day One.

Baltic Dry Index. 2677 +11     Brent Crude 111.27

Spot Gold  4617                          Spot Silver 73.80

US 2 Year Yield 3.84 +0.06

US Federal Debt. 39.177 trillion

US GDP 31.368 trillion.

Opec, a cartel of oil-producing nations, said output in Iraq was 61pc lower in March compared with February, with Kuwait down 53pc and the UAE cutting output by 44pc.

Production in Saudi Arabia fell 23pc even as it uses its crucial East-West pipeline to reroute barrels from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export.

It is decision day at the US central bank, no change to their key interest rate is expected.

Tomorrow it’s the turn of the ECB and BoE, again no change is expected, although Trump’s Gulf war supply disruptions bringing in higher prices make all three central banks likely to raise interest rates later inn the year.

Yesterday’s big news was the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC on Friday. Basically, once normality returns to Gulf oil shipments the UAE wants to start the process of raising their oil production  from an OPEC limit of 3.5 mbpd to closer to 5 mbpd.

Will any other OPEC members follow their lead in May?

Asia-Pacific markets open mixed after OPEC shock, tech jitters drag Wall Street lower

Asia-Pacific markets open mixed Wednesday, after Wall Street declined overnight as investors assess the latest developments concerning OPEC, as well as a report that pointed to weakness in OpenAI.

The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.

Optimism around tech stocks took hit as the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI’s revenue and new users growth was below its own targets. The report added that CFO Sarah Friar told the company leadership that she was concerned OpenAI may not be able to pay computing contracts in the future if its top line doesn’t expand fast enough.

South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.39%, while the small-cap Kosdaq traded flat. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.28%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 1.2%, while Mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.26%.

Japan markets were closed for a holiday.

S&P 500 futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 63 points, or 0.1%.

Overnight in the U.S., The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday, weighed down by the report on OpenAI as well as a rise in oil prices. Traders await quarterly earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, as well as the conclusion of what could be Jerome Powell’s final policy meeting as Federal Reserve chair.

The broad market index fell 0.49% to close at 7,138.80, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 0.9% and ended at 24,663.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 25.86 points, or 0.05%, to settle at 49,141.93.

Asia markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

S&P 500 futures are flat as Wall Street looks ahead to ‘Mag 7’ earnings and Fed decision: Live updates

Updated Wed, Apr 29 2026 9:38 PM EDT

Futures linked to the S&P 500 were flat Tuesday night as traders awaited quarterly earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, as well as the conclusion of what could be Jerome Powell’s final policy meeting as Federal Reserve chair.

S&P 500 futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 63 points, or 0.1%.

The biggest after-hours movers included Starbucks, which jumped 5% after raising its full-year outlook. Shares of Robinhood fell 9% after its first-quarter results fell short of expectations. Both Seagate Technology and NXP Semiconductors popped about 16% after posting earnings beats and sharing positive revenue guidance.

In Tuesday’s regular session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both retreated from their records. The broad market index shed 0.49%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gave up 0.9%. The blue-chip Dow lost 25.86 points, or 0.05%.

Stocks were led lower by losses in the technology sector that came after a The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI recently missed its own revenue and user growth targets. Tech giant Oracle, which has a $300 billion, five-year partnership to supply computing power to OpenAI, slid 4%, while chip giants Broadcom and Nvidia fell 4% and more than 1%, respectively.

Four of the “Magnificent Seven” tech titans are on the docket to report their earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell: AlphabetAmazonMeta Platforms and Microsoft. Investors have high expectations for these company to show the revenue that will justify the capital they have spent on artificial intelligence investments.

“These companies, last time they reported, they increased full-year capex — just those four companies — by $94 billion. Let’s see what they say tomorrow,” said Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at CIO Group, on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday will also see the conclusion of the April Fed policy meeting, which will likely be Fed Chair Powell’s last before his term ends in May. Kevin Warsh, Powell’s successor, appears on track to take the helm at the central bank. The market does not expect the Fed to make any adjustments to the current federal funds rate.

Stock market today: Live updates

UAE Quits OPEC Just as War on Iran Throws Markets Into Turmoil

April 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT+1

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC after six decades of membership, dealing a significant blow to the group just as the supply disruption caused by the Iran war roils oil markets. The UAE was the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ third-biggest producer before the conflict started, accounting for about 12% of its overall supply.

Longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia led the UAE to talk in the past about quitting the group. But now, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told us the war’s disruptive impact means its a good time to chart its own path in energy markets.

The UAE’s decision to quit OPEC will likely have limited impact in the short term, as the war chokes off crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are still elevated at over $110 a barrel. But Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said it could impact “Saudi Arabia’s role as the market’s central stabilizer.” Our columnist Javier Blas calls it “the biggest existential crisis” OPEC has ever faced.

Iran has signaled it may be willing to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait in exchange for an end to the blockade, but US President Donald Trump and his national security team are skeptical of its proposal, the Wall Street Journal reported. — Philip Lagerkranser

UAE Quits OPEC Just as War on Iran Throws Markets Into Turmoil - Bloomberg

United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC, effective May 1

Published Tue, Apr 28 2026 8:31 AM EDT

The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.

The shock announcement Tuesday comes after the UAE was the target of missile and drone attacks for weeks by fellow OPEC member Iran. Tehran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has also severely constrained the UAE’s ability to export oil, threatening the foundation of its economy.

The UAE has played an influential role in OPEC’s decisions over nearly six decades. It was the group’s third-largest oil producer in February behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Gulf state joined OPEC in 1967, seven years after the organization was founded.

The UAE gave vague reasons for leaving OPEC now. It came to the conclusion that exiting the group was in its national interest following a comprehensive review of its production policy and capacity, the energy ministry said in a written statement.

Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei subsequently told CNBC that the UAE made the decision to leave OPEC at a time when it would be the least disruptive to the other producers in the group.

“Our exit at this time is the right time for it, because it will have a minimum impact on the price and it will have a minimum impact on our friends at OPEC and OPEC+,” Al Mazrouei said.

The UAE has the ambition to achieve 5 million barrels per day of capacity by 2027 and wants more freedom of action to pursue that goal, the energy minister added. The decision to leave OPEC is not a response to years of production cuts led by Saudi Arabia, he said.

More

United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC, effective May 1

1 big thing: What Japan signals about the war-hit economy

April 28, 2026

The Iran war is trapping the world's central banks with an energy shock that simultaneously undermines growth and stokes inflation, with no good policy response to either.

  • Each of the world's most important central banks faces that dilemma in policy meetings this week.

Why it matters: From Tokyo to Washington, central banks that were on track to normalize policy are now paralyzed, unsure whether the energy price shock will prove more consequential in causing sustained inflation or in sapping growth.

  • The longer the war drags on, the more the global economy will have to grapple with a stagflationary problem that no interest rate decision can solve.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
  • The Bank of Japan was the first to deal with this dilemma earlier today, as it elected to leave rates steady. The Fed follows tomorrow, and the European Central Bank and Bank of England each meet on Thursday.

What they're saying: Like the BOJ, other central banks this week will "hold rates steady as they all face slightly different versions of the same dilemma," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at global payments firm Corpay, wrote in a note this morning.

  • Namely, "whether the energy shock rippling through global markets will prove transitory or become embedded in prices, echoing the post-pandemic inflation surge."

Driving the news: The BOJ held its benchmark rate steady at 0.75% today. Before the war, central bank watchers had expected a rate increase — a continuation of the gradual tightening cycle that the BOJ began in March 2024, when it raised rates for the first time in 17 years as it escaped decades of deflation and negative borrowing costs.

  • Three of nine board members dissented in favor of an immediate hike — a sign that some top officials believe that the inflation threat feels urgent enough that waiting carries its own risks.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
  • The bank slashed its 2026 growth forecast in half, to 0.5%, while raising its core inflation outlook 0.9 percentage point, to 2.8% — the arithmetic of a stagflation trap.

Zoom in: Japan is particularly exposed to Iran war fallout: It sources more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, nearly all of it through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

The big picture: In the context of several reoccurring shocks over the past six years, central banks are questioning whether war-related effects will scramble the usual playbooks.

  • Japan could raise rates because energy costs and a weakening yen are forcing the bank's hand, not because the economy is chugging along and can digest higher borrowing costs.

"Our decision today is based on the view that central banks should look through temporary supply shock-driven inflation," BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda said at the press conference.

  • "But if such shock brings about second-round effects on underlying inflation, we must raise interest rates," Ueda added.

More

Axios Macro

In other news.  Hmm.

SAIL STRAIT THROUGH 

Sanctioned Russian billionaire’s vast £370m superyacht mysteriously sails through WW3 flashpoint Strait of Hormuz

Published: 11:56, 27 Apr 2026

A SANCTIONED Russian billionaire’s £370million superyacht has brazenly sailed through the volatile Strait of Hormuz at the heart of the Iran war.

The floating palace, linked to oligarch Alexey Mordashov, mysteriously slipped through the world’s most dangerous shipping lane, where tensions remain sky-high.

Shipping data shows the colossal 142-metre vessel Nord slipped out of Dubai on Friday afternoon before cruising through the World War Three flashpoint and docking in Muscat on Sunday.

Valued at around £370million, the luxury vessel boasts multiple decks and jaw-dropping features, and its daring route through the blockade has raised serious questions.

It is not clear how the superyacht gained permission to use the route.

Iran‘s bloodthirsty Revolutionary Guards have heavily restricted traffic in the strait for two months, choking a vital waterway that usually carries around a fifth of the world’s oil.

Only a handful of ships now pass through each day, mostly merchant vessels, compared to as many as 140 daily crossings before fighting erupted on February 28.

The US has hit back by blockading Iranian ports, leaving the region on a knife edge despite an uneasy ceasefire.

Mordashov, a steel tycoon with close ties to Vladimir Putin, is not officially listed as the yacht’s owner.

But records show the vessel is tied to a Russian firm owned by his wife, registered in Cherepovets, the same town as his steel giant Severstal.

The oligarch was slapped with sanctions by the US and EU over his links to the Kremlin after Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Nord is among the largest yachts on the planet, boasting 20 luxury cabins, a swimming pool, helipad and even its own submarine, according to industry insiders.

Meanwhile, Iran has offered Donald Trump a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.

Tehran’s proposal would  bring an end to the bitter conflict and reopen the key trade route – while protecting its nuclear ambitions, Axios reports.

But putting an end to the conflict and lifting the blockade would remove Trump’s leverage over Iran.

More

Sanctioned Russian billionaire’s vast £370m superyacht mysteriously sails through WW3 flashpoint Strait of Hormuz

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Global oil stockpiles being depleted 'at record pace'

27 April 2026

Global stockpiles of oil are being depleted at a record pace as the Iran war continues to choke off supplies to the world, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Between 11 million and 12 million barrels of crude have been drawn from inventories each day this month, the Wall Street bank estimated, as it raised its forecast for oil prices this year.

Analysts at the investment giant said the “extreme” drawdowns of worldwide reserves were being driven by the dramatic reduction in oil production across the Middle East.

As a result, the bank said the price of Brent crude would average $90 a barrel during the fourth quarter of this year, up from its previous estimate of $80.

Neil Crosby, an analyst at Sparta, said introducing measures to lower demand for oil was the only way to address the sharp drop in production.

He said this had happened “pre-emptively” to an extent, with airlines cutting flights and restrictions imposed in some South-east Asian countries.

‘There will be real shortages’

The Philippines has told civil servants to work from home, while Thailand has urged workers to limit use of air conditioning and encouraged people to wear short-sleeved shirts to the office.

Mr Crosby said: “The rate at which we’re drawing down means we can do this for maybe three months.

“If we maintain the situation where Hormuz is closed, eventually there will be real shortages.”

He added: “And then either we’re going to have a panicked market where it’s not managed by governments ... or we’re going to have a managed market, which is going to involve government measures on top of the price doing its job, which is going to be a high price and consumers are going to have to cut back.”

The international oil benchmark was trading at $108 a barrel on Monday even as Iran submitted a new peace proposal to the US, offering to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Goldman Sachs said the Iran war had cut production in the Gulf by around 14.5 million barrels a day (mb/d) as containers have been unable to move through the waterway. This outweighs the drawdowns of reserves by at least 2.5mb/d.

The bank added that it expected the Gulf to recover only 70pc of the lost crude production by July.

As a result, global demand for oil is expected to drop by 1.7mb/d during the second quarter of this year as countries are forced to cut back to avoid shortages.

Daan Struyven, the head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, said: “Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.”

More

Global oil stockpiles being depleted 'at record pace'

Barclays sets aside £823m for bad debts after fraud hit but profits rise

28 April 2026

Barclays has revealed it set aside more than £800 million for bad debts related to the collapse of a mortgage lender and as it builds a buffer amid geopolitical turmoil despite reporting an uptick in earnings for the first quarter.

The £823 million provision for loans expected to turn sour was increased from £643 million a year ago.

The banking group’s impairment charge was largely driven by a one-off loss surrounding a single company affecting its investment banking operations.

It is understood that this refers to the collapse of UK property lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS) earlier this year amid allegations of fraud.

Group chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan, known within the bank as Venkat, said he was “disappointed” by the hit which related to a “well-publicised sophisticated fraud”.

“This fraud, as with the one in Tricolor, indicates to us the importance of strong financial controls of borrowers, and the difficulty of identifying fraud,” he said.

“As such, we are constraining lending to certain structured finance counterparties who operate more vulnerable business models and cannot convince us of the quality and independence of their financial controls.”

The bank suffered a separate impairment last year linked to the collapse of US subprime lender Tricolor.

Venkat stressed that efforts to restrict lending to more risky borrowers were not having any significant impact on the business but that he wanted to “give our investors a sense of how we’re thinking about the environment”.

Meanwhile, Barclays also warned that “geopolitical uncertainty persists” which was reflected in the latest buffer.

Venkat said the bank was “vigilant about the inflationary impact of the rising energy crisis” linked to the war in Iran.

He added: “The higher oil prices and the longer it goes on will have an impact on the economy.

More

Barclays sets aside £823m for bad debts after fraud hit but profits rise

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Shocking?

World's first electric airline plunges into liquidation less than three years after launching

27 April 2026

A UK airline has entered liquidation just a few years after launching - and it never got one plane in the air. 

The Scottish carrier, Ecojet, was founded by controverisial British entrepreneur - and Just Stop Oil backer - Dale Vince in 2023 who had big plans for it to be the 'world's first electric airline'.

However, the airline has now closed down after it reportedly tried to raise £20million, according to the Express

Opus Restructuring has been appointed as provisional liquidators and the advisory group explained how it was a 'voluntary liquidation initiated by the company's board'.

It company added: 'Ecojet was a start-up business and has no material assets. 

'The members have elected to fund the liquidation process to ensure that the company's employees receive their full statutory entitlements.' 

Ecojet had not yet launched any flights, but had planned routes between Southampton and Edinburgh on planes retrofitted with hydrogen-electric engines.

It also intended to spread its wings further afield to mainland Europe and had long-haul trips to the likes of the US and Asia as the ultimate goal.

The carrier had the eco-friendly values implemented throughout its plans and even intended to feed its passengers plant-based meals served by staff in environmentally friendly uniforms. 

Vince - who is a multi-millionaire vegan eco-tycoon and has donated money to the Labour party and climate activists Just Stop Oil - intended for Ecojet to be the airline that made zero carbon, emission-free air travel possible for the first time.  

More

World's first electric airline plunges into liquidation less than three years after launching

American Airlines is the latest carrier to restrict portable chargers on planes. Here’s what to know about the new policy

Tue, 28 April 2026 at 5:09 am BST

American Airlines is the latest carrier to restrict portable chargers on planes amid fears of the devices catching fire.

Airlines have been slowly limiting the number of portable chargers allowed on planes over concerns about the lithium batteries inside the devices. The Federal Aviation Administration has warned that lithium batteries can catch fire if damaged.

American Airlines passengers will only be allowed to carry two portable lithium chargers each starting on Friday, an American Airlines representative told The Independent. Neither power bank can exceed 100 watt-hours.

Currently, American Airlines allows up to four lithium batteries in a carry-on bag if they don’t exceed 100 watt-hours. Passengers may also bring two spare lithium batteries that produce between 100 and 160 watt-hours in their carry-on bag under the current policy.

American Airlines also directs passengers to keep portable chargers visible while they are using them, according to the representative.

The chargers are banned from being stored in overhead bins, and customers are directed to keep the devices nearby when they are tucked away in carry-on bags.

Portable chargers also cannot be recharged while on board the flight, the representative said.

“To support safety on board while ensuring our customers continue to have the ability to charge when on the go, American is requiring customers to keep these devices easily accessible during flight,” the carrier said in a statement to The Independent.

Last week, Southwest Airlines changed its policy on portable chargers, only allowing one power bank per customer that doesn’t exceed 100 watt-hours.

The device cannot be put in the overhead bin, must be visible when in use and cannot be recharged on board.

There are also federal rules regarding portable chargers. The FAA warns that the devices cannot exceed 160 watt-hours and cannot be put in checked bags, only carry-ons.

There have been more than 700 verified lithium battery incidents involving “smoke, fire or extreme heat” on aircraft since March 2006, according to the FAA. As of April 15, there have been 22 incidents this year.

South Korean airline Air Busan banned power banks in overhead bins after one of its planes burst into flames on the runaway in January 2025.

American Airlines is the latest carrier to restrict portable chargers on planes. Here’s what to know about the new policy - Yahoo News UK

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

It is the highest impertinence and presumption, therefore, in kings and ministers to pretend to watch over the economy of private people, and to restrain their expense. They are themselves, always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society.

Adam Smith