Under Great Market Pressure, Trump Stalls. The Wars End? Updated.

Baltic Dry Index. 2037-19      Brent Crude 103.93

Spot Gold  4341                          Spot Silver 67.15

US 2 Year Yield 3.83 -0.05

US Federal Debt. 39.027 trillion

US GDP 31.263 trillion.

Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.

Milton Friedman

7:30 AM Update.

Saudis and UAE Weigh Joining Iran War

March 24, 2026 at 6:30 AM GMT
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken some steps toward joining the Iran War, the Wall Street Journal reported — potentially signaling an escalation of the fighting. Saudi Arabia agreed to give the military US access to King Fahd Air Base, the WSJ said, an apparent reversal after saying its bases couldn’t be used to attack its longtime rival. US stock futures fell on the report and oil climbed. Check out our Markets Today live blog for all the latest news and analysis relevant to UK assets.
Just moments after Donald Trump backed down from his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure in a Truth Social post, oil prices plunged over 13%, Treasury yields tumbled and traders signaled that US stocks would surge at the opening bell. It almost didn’t matter that less than an hour later Iran contradicted Trump’s claim that negotiations were underway. On Wall Street, the message was clear: Trump, at least, is eager to end a war that has sent the global economy careening toward a crisis since he started it a little over three weeks ago.
ECB Must Be Vigilant in Face of Stagflation Risks, Vujcic Says
The European Central Bank must be “very agile and vigilant” to keep prices in check as the Iran war brings stagflation risks closer, Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said.

Saudis and UAE Weigh Joining Iran War - Bloomberg

3.30 AM Update.

A Monday for the history books. For whatever reason, President Trump TACOed again, halting for five days, his war on Iran.

Israel, apparently unconsulted, continued its war on Iran and its proxies on Monday.

In the markets, instant relief, followed by rising uncertainty that any meaningful talks are underway or about to get underway in Pakistan.

In Strait of Hormuz news, two tankers exited with LPG for India and an Iraqi oil tanker exited for an undisclosed destination.

Asia-Pacific markets pare gains as oil rebounds on Iran war-linked uncertainty

Published Mon, Mar 23 2026 8:05 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets pared gains Tuesday as oil prices rebounded, underscoring lingering uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.

Brent crude futures for May rose over 3.5% to $103.7 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures jumped 4% to $91.72 per barrel. The uptick follows a sharp sell-off on Monday, when Brent crude fell nearly 11% to around $99 per barrel after topping $112 on Friday.

“Despite the exuberance on Wall Street ... oil is well off its lows after Tehran denied conducting any weekend negotiations with Washington,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, who added that the risk of an extended war remains at the top of the mind for the market.

South Korea’s Kospi had surged over 3% before paring gains to 1.5%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was last up 1.7%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.1%, while the Topix added 1.87% after Japan’s headline inflation rate eased for a fourth straight month in February as the economy cooled on stabilizing food prices and fuel subsidies.

The consumer price index fell to 1.3% last month, according to data released by Japan’s Statistics Bureau Tuesday, marking the lowest since March 2022 and below the central bank’s 2% target, down from 1.5% in January.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.32%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index advanced 1.62%, while the CSI 300 rose 0.52%.

The gains came after U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he had instructed the U.S. military to delay planned strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy facilities for five days, after discussions with Iranian officials.

However, Iranian state media, citing an unnamed senior security official in a Telegram post, disputed Trump’s account, denying that any talks had taken place between Washington and Tehran.

“I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump said Monday in a Truth Social post.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks rallied. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 631 points, or 1.38%, to close at 46,208.47. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% and ended at 6,581.00, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.38% and settled at 21,946.76.

Before Trump’s comments, posted on Truth Social early Monday, futures pointed to more losses for equity markets under siege from skyrocketing oil prices and uncertainty about the duration of the Iran conflict. But after Trump’s comments, Dow futures briefly surged more than 1,000 points.

Spot gold fell about 1.5% to $4,340.18, while spot silver prices fell nearly 3%.

Asia markets: Oil, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, Kospi

Oil rises with Brent crossing $100 a barrel again as Middle East tensions keep traders on edge

Published Mon, Mar 23 2026 9:51 PM EDT

Oil prices gained in Asia trading Tuesday after clocking steep declines overnight, as traders assess developments related to the Middle East conflict.

Brent crude futures for May rose over 3% to $102.96 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures for May jumped 3.6% to $91.27 per barrel.

The uptick follows a sharp sell-off on Monday, with Brent crude falling about 11% to around $99 per barrel on Monday after topping $112 on Friday.

----Trump’s statement sent oil lower, while equities jumped. Still, the recovery on Tuesday suggests lingering skepticism over Trump’s claims — that were also refuted by Iran. 

“Despite the exuberance on Wall Street, ladies and gentlemen, oil is well off its lows after Tehran denied conducting any weekend negotiations with Washington,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, who added that the risk of an extended war remains at the top of the mind for the market.

Torres noted that repeated attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East are fueling continued concerns over potential disruptions to production and transportation.

“Additionally, in consideration of the vast number of attacks that have affected critical energy in the Middle East … there’s nervousness that there could be capacity and transportation disruptions that keep costs higher than at the beginning of the year even if there’s a deal,” he wrote in a note published on Tuesday.

The Strait of Hormuz was handling about 20% of global seaborne oil supplies until the war broke out, before Iran virtually stopped flows via the critical waterway. 

Iranian state media said Sunday that Tehran would permit safe transit through the strait, except for ships associated with its “enemies.”

Oil markets: WTI, Brent, Middle East tensions keep markets on edge

Trump Delays Iran Power-Plant Strikes for Five Days

The US president postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, pending what he said were discussions with Iran to end the war. Iran denied talks had happened.

March 23, 2026 at 8:57 PM GMT

US President Donald Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of what he said were talks with Iran to end the war. The delay came after Trump’s original threat on Saturday to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants, beginning with the biggest one, if it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial ship traffic within 48 hours. 

Both sides are keen to “make a deal,” Trump told reporters on Monday — but Iran denied that negotiations are taking place. The semi-official Fars news agency reported there hasn’t been “direct or indirect communication” with the US leader. Government officials have yet to comment.

Still, the Trump post triggered a wild reversal in markets. While Brent crude oil pared its decline after Iran denied the discussions, it still dropped 11% to settle at $99.94 a barrel. The S&P 500 added 1.2%. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated, with traders backing off some of their more hawkish Federal Reserve bets and pricing in a few basis points worth of easing this year. — Jordan Parker Erb

Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying more than 92,600 tons of liquefied petroleum gas were making their way through the Strait of Hormuz, ship-tracking data show, following a route taken by other ships approved by Iran that hews closely to the country’s coastline. The two vessels had earlier signaled Indian ownership with their transponders instead of a destination — a precautionary measure followed by other ships making the crossing. India has been facing acute shortages of LPG and the nation has been in talks with Tehran to secure cargoes of the fuel, used primarily as cooking gas.

Meanwhile, an oil supertanker hauling 2 million barrels of Iraq’s crude got through the Strait of Hormuz, the first vessel observed moving Baghdad’s oil through the vital waterway since it all but closed to commercial shipping. The Omega Trader, managed by Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd, signaled over the past few days that it reached Mumbai, tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Its prior signal before reaching the Indian port city had been from inside the Persian Gulf more than 10 days ago.

Trump Delays Iran Power-Plant Strikes for Five Days - Bloomberg

Volume in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s market-turning post

Published Mon, Mar 23 202 612:19 PM EDT

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

The timing of the earlier volume spikes across both equities and crude caught the attention of traders, particularly given the absence of an obvious catalyst at the moment they occurred.

Early-morning futures markets are typically less liquid, which can make short bursts of buying and selling more noticeable than during regular trading hours. Still, the trades raised some eyebrows because whoever purchased a large amount of stock futures and sold or shorted crude futures at that moment made a lot of money just minutes later.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CME Group declined to comment.

Volume in stock, oil futures surged minutes before Trump's market-turning post

De-escalation arrives just in time as ‘pressure index’ forces Trump’s hand

March 23. 2026

Deutsche Bank has produced a proprietary index calculating various political and economic inputs that might induce President Donald Trump to seek de-escalation with Iran. This pressure would appear to have resulted in a climbdown Monday, with the White House alleging constructive talks with Iran, even as Iran denied them.

Deutsche Bank’s simple index incorporates — with equal weightings — U.S. Treasury bond yields, one-month shifts in Trump’s popularity ratings, one-year inflation expectations and the performance of the S&P 500.

The index shows four spikes in the last 12 months including "liberation day" and its aftermath in April, the controversy surrounding the potential ousting of Fed Chair Jerome Powell last summer, the dispute centered on Greenland in January and the present crisis in the Middle East.

Of these four events, the spike in the pressure index for the latest is the sharpest and may indicate why Trump felt he had no option to de-escalate.

De-escalation arrives just in time as ‘pressure index’ forces Trump’s hand - MarketWatch

'Trump Backed Down': Iran Media Denies Direct Talks After US Holds Off Energy Strikes

"Trump, fearing Iran's response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum," Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting said in a post on X

Mar 23, 2026 17:53 pm IST

Shortly after US President Donald Trump announced that he is deferring "any and all" strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure on productive resolution talks, Iranian media reports denied any 'direct' or 'intermediary' communication with him. 

"Trump, fearing Iran's response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum," Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting said in a post on X. 

Ebrahim Rezaei, Spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission reiterated the claims and said, "Trump and America have backed down again. The field is still charging forward. Another defeat for the devil," in a post on X.

Iran's Fars news agency also denied claims of dialogue stating that Trump retreated due to Iranian threats. 

Tasnim news media from Tehran alleged Trump of making these announcements just to trim crude oil prices, once again iterating that no talks for resolutions were held. 

The news agency added that Iran will "continue to defend itself".

More

'Trump Backed Down': Iran Media Denies Direct Talks After US Holds Off Energy Strikes

10-year Treasury yield falls after Trump halts strikes against Iran

Published Mon, Mar 23 2026 6:44 AM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 23 2026 4:02 PM EDT

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell on Monday after President Donald Trump said further military strikes against Iran had been postponed after “productive” negotiations between the warring sides.

The benchmark yield was down more than 4 basis points at 4.348%. Earlier in the session, the benchmark security hit its highest level since July as traders had feared the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be lowering interest rates this year and actually could hike as their next move. It then fell sharply, but then turned back to flat before moving lower once again as traders processed the news.

The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year note dropped more than 4 basis points to 3.848%. The 30-year bond yield was off 4 basis points at 4.92%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

----“In order for equities to stabilize, beyond oil price considerations, bond yields need to stabilize too,” said JPMorgan equity strategist Mislav Matejka in a Monday note.

The economic data docket is mostly bare this week. The S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report is due Tuesday morning, which measures the economic health of American manufacturing and services sectors.

February’s PMI report indicated a slowdown of business growth for services firms and employment expansion, and economists expect further softening. A reading above 50 tends to indicate growth, and forecasts predict the latest report to come in at 50.5, down from 51.9 in February.

The University of Michigan will release its consumer sentiment index for March on Friday.

Traders have been worried over the hostilities in the Middle East. Trump had said Saturday that he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran failed to fully reopen the Strait within 48 hours.

Iran responded by escalating threats to target energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the Gulf. Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also said Saturday that entities that purchase American government bonds and “finance the U.S. military budget” would be considered legitimate targets, alongside military bases.

10-year Treasury yield falls after Trump halts strikes against Iran

In other news.

As the U.S. invests in rare earths, a mine that was broke and underwater 10 years ago is now a game-changer

By Jon Wertheim, Aliza Chasan,  Graham Messick, Alex Ortiz

March 22, 2026 / 7:45 PM EDT / CBS News

About a decade after he bought a shuttered rare earths mine that was, literally, partially underwater, MP Materials CEO James Litinsky has transformed his business into a pivotal player in America's national security. 

Since taking over the rare earth industry from the United States in the 1990s, China has dominated the entire supply chain. That includes the mining, processing and especially the making of super-powered magnets using these elemental metals, which are essential components inside smartphones, robotics, fighter jets and drones. When President Trump enacted his tariff plans in April 2025, China responded by restricting sales of some rare earth elements and magnets to the U.S. – and requiring companies to file detailed disclosures for how they would be used.

"As it stands today, we need permission from the Chinese government to make things. We need permission from the Chinese government to make military things," Litinsky said. "The practical reality is, that is not an acceptable condition."

What are rare earths and where are they in the U.S.

Despite the name, rare earths aren't rare; what's actually rare are sites with high enough concentrations of rare earths, and accessible enough locations, to make extraction worthwhile. In all, there are 17 rare earth elements, each one an elemental metal on the periodic table. 

These are not well-known metals like iron, copper and aluminum. There's europium, which enhanced the color red in early television sets, and neodymium, which strengthens and miniaturizes magnets. These so-called "rare earth permanent magnets" are used in everything from high-speed rail and electric vehicles to the tiny motors that make iPhones buzz, according to Julie Klinger, a professor of environmental studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a rare earths expert.

"The thing that distinguishes rare earth elements are their fantastic magnetic, conductive and optical properties," Klinger said. "So they're used often the way you might use spices in cooking, because if you add just a little bit of a certain rare earth element, say, to a magnet, that enables that magnet to be both very small and very powerful."

Geologists found rare earths at Mountain Pass, California, in 1949. By the 60s, individual rare earths were being mined, separated and utilized. Mountain Pass was considered the world's main rare earth mine for decades.

But the process eventually moved offshore because China could do it cheaper.

"It's a dirty business. It's a risky business," Klinger said. "It's a difficult business to really break even."

Mountain Pass fell victim to globalization, and also to U.S. environmental regulators in the 1990s after low levels of radioactive water and residue leaked into the Mojave Desert. The mine languished for a decade until a new company, Molycorp, tried, unsuccessfully, to compete with China and revive the business. Molycorp filed for bankruptcy in 2015.

More

As the U.S. invests in rare earths, a mine that was broke and underwater 10 years ago is now a game-changer - CBS News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Now it depends on the outcome of the next five days.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Yes, yet another battery fire. Approx. 5 minutes.

Power Bank Car Fire in Seconds: Why Battery Fires Spread Fast

Power Bank Car Fire in Seconds: Why Battery Fires Spread Fast

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The combination of economic and political power in the same hands is a sure recipe for tyranny.

Milton Friedman

War Week 4, Day 24. From Bad To Very Much Worse.

Baltic Dry Index. 2056 -01      Brent Crude 112.78

Spot Gold  4360                           Spot Silver 65.90

US 2 Year Yield 3.88 +0.09

US Federal Debt. 39.023 trillion

US GDP 31.260 trillion.

It is easy to be conspicuously 'compassionate' if others are being forced to pay the cost.

Murray Rothbard

Little need for my input today, the articles and the experts quoted speak loudly for themselves.

Unless Caesar Trump halts his insane war today, very bad things will begin happening in the global economy from this week.

But Caesar is doubling down on extending his war, possibly putting US Marines onto Iran’s Strait of Hormuz islands later this week!

How far off an international economic collapse is, is anyone’s guess, but bad is about to get far worse. An industrial commodities collapse looms.

South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei tumble more than 5% as Trump-Iran threats escalate

Published Sun, Mar 22 2026 8:05 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets sold off sharply on Monday, with major indexes in Japan and South Korea falling more than 5%, as investors fled risk assets amid escalating conflict in the Middle East that has entered its fourth week.

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global energy flows — within 48 hours

Iran pushed back, threatening to target energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the Gulf if the U.S. carries out its ultimatum.

Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Saturday that attacks on the country’s power plants would “immediately” be met with retaliatory strikes on energy and oil infrastructure across the region.

“Critical infrastructure and energy and oil infrastructure throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and irreversibly destroyed, and oil prices will rise for a long time,” Ghalibaf said on X.

On Sunday, Ghalibaf extended the threat to holders of U.S. Treasurys, warning financial entities that purchase American government bonds and “finance the U.S. military budget” would be considered legitimate targets, alongside military bases.

Crude prices whipsawed in volatile trading on Monday. Brent crude reversed earlier losses to gain 0.65% to $112.68 per barrel as of 10:57 p.m. EST. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.8% at $99 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs has sharply raised its oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to average $110 in March-April, up from $98 previously, and WTI to average $98 in March and $105 in April.

“We now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery,” the Wall Street bank said, noting that prices are likely to trend higher over that period until investors gain confidence that a prolonged disruption can be ruled out.

The spread between Brent and WTI exceeded $14 a barrel, the steepest price difference between the benchmarks for U.S. and international crude oil in years.

That widening gap may indicate a “peak intensity of this oil crisis,” Chris Verrone, chief market strategist at Strategas Research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. Elevated Brent crude prices will likely prompt traders to price in a longer-lasting conflict, he added.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined nearly 5%, widening losses from the earlier session, while the broad-based Topix dropped 4.4%.

South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi plunged more than 6%, and the small-cap Kosdaq fell nearly 5%. The Korean exchange briefly suspended trading after the Kospi 200 futures index fell by over 5%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 2.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the mainland CSI 300 dropped nearly 2% on the open.

Overnight in the U.S., stock futures were little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat and the S&P 500 shed 0.1% while the Nasdaq Composite futures pulled back by 0.2%.

The three major indices ended last week lower, with the S&P 500 declining by more than 1.5% and falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Dow, which saw its first four-week losing streak since 2023, and the Nasdaq each fell around 2% for the week.

Asia markets live updates today: March 23

Global LNG supply bracing for a jolt as supply from West Asia may come to an end in 10 days: Report

23 March 2026

A global energy crunch is fast approaching, with countries bracing for a sharp drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies as shipments from the Gulf near a halt within the next 10 days, according to a report by the Financial Times.

The report said only a handful of final cargoes are still en route after exports from Qatar, which accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG supply, were disrupted following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and missile strikes on the Ras Laffan processing hub.

Many shipments that had already departed before the conflict are still reaching buyers, delaying the full impact. But once these deliveries are exhausted, import-dependent economies are expected to face immediate shortages and sharply higher prices, the Financial Times reported.

Supply shock already hitting markets

The disruption has already pushed LNG prices significantly higher. According to the Financial Times, Asian benchmark prices have doubled since the conflict began, reaching around $23 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

Higher shipping costs, driven by longer routes and elevated charter rates, are compounding the pressure on buyers, the report added.

Pakistan among the worst affected

Pakistan is emerging as one of the most vulnerable economies, the Financial Times reported. Nearly 99% of its LNG imports came from Qatar last year, and its last shipments arrived in the early days of the conflict.

Its two LNG terminals have scaled down operations and are expected to stop gas dispatch entirely by the end of the month.

“After that we’ll run dry,” Iqbal Ahmed, chair and chief executive of Pakistan GasPort, told the FT. “We do not know when the next cargo will come in.”

Efforts to secure alternative supplies have so far failed, with offers from Europe, the US, Oman and other regions proving too expensive, according to the report.

Asia braces for shortages

Other Asian economies are also under strain. Bangladesh has introduced gas-rationing measures, including shutting universities, while Taiwan has moved to secure replacement cargoes to avoid immediate disruption.

Even so, risks remain. Kevin Li from the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center warned of “severe energy shortages” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to the Financial Times.

Japan and China are expected to turn to spot markets and alternative fuels such as coal, though buyers are proceeding cautiously.

“Our plan is to buy in the spot market from JKM to cover supplies,” one Japanese LNG trader told the Financial Times.

Long-term damage to the supply

Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, supply constraints are likely to persist due to damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility.

Qatar’s energy minister Saad Al-Kaabi said around 17% of the country’s LNG capacity could remain offline for three to five years.

“This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts,” Al-Kaabi said, as quoted by the Financial Times.

A widening global energy risk

With nearly 90% of Gulf LNG exports typically heading to Asia, the disruption is exposing vulnerabilities across global energy supply chains, as per the report.

Global LNG supply bracing for a jolt as supply from West Asia may come to an end in 10 days: Report

Iran US war live updates: Blasts cause fire near Tehran; IEA chief says 40 energy assets 'severely damaged'

23 March 2026

Columns of fire and smoke reportedly rose over the city of Karaj, west of Tehran in Iran, following an air strike, Al Jazeera reported.

More than an hour after reports of explosions in Tehran, a thick plume of black smoke could still be seen billowing from a single point in the eastern part of the Iranian capital, AFP reported.

US President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social website early Monday: “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, TO PUT IT MILDLY!!!”

The top commander of the US military’s Central Command said the campaign against Iran is “ahead or on plan," as the Israeli military began what it called "a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting Iranian terror regime infrastructure” early Monday.

US Navy Admiral Brad Cooper gave his first one-on-one interview of the war to the Farsi-language satellite network Iran International, which aired it early Monday. Iranian media reported new airstrikes targeting Tehran without identifying the sites being hit.

Indonesia is eyeing up to 80 trillion rupiah ($4.7 billion) in savings to cushion its economy from the fallout of the war in the Middle East, according to the government.

Southeast Asia's largest economy is also mulling fuel-saving measures, including one day of remote work per week for government and certain public-sector workers, as US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory response in the Gulf have sent global oil prices soaring.

UAE airlines are running a limited flight schedule to key destinations as weather disruptions and regional conditions continue to affect operations. Passengers are advised to check flight status before travelling, follow official airline updates, and only go to airports with confirmed bookings.

Adverse weather is expected to impact flights over the coming days. Airlines, including flydubai and Air Arabia, recommend allowing extra time for journeys, keeping contact details up to date, and using online booking tools to rebook or request refunds to ensure a safe and smooth travel experience.

Iran's media has confirmed one dead in an attack on a radio broadcaster in the coastal region, AFP reported.

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia has accused US President Donald Trump of “sending our sons and daughters to war” because he is still unable to accept that he lost the 2020 election.

----The Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) said that its emergency personnel are at the site of a residential area that was destroyed in an air attack in northwestern Urmia, near Iran's borders with Turkey and Iraq.

IRCS said relief workers were providing aid to “injured compatriots”. It was not immediately clear how many people were wounded.

The Fars news agency is now reporting that at least one child was killed in the strike on the residential building in the city of Khorramabad, located west of Tehran.

According to Fars, several people were wounded.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Monday as an escalating Middle East conflict stoked concerns about sustained disruption to energy supplies, threatening the outlook for Asia's third-largest economy.

The rupee fell to 93.84 against the US dollar, eclipsing its previous low of 93.7350 hit on Friday.

Asian currencies were down between 0.1% to 0.8% as hopes for an off-ramp to hostilities dimmed over the weekend, with Washington and Tehran trading threats as the war entered its fourth week.

Australia and Singapore will ramp up coordination to ensure uninterrupted trade in key energy supplies, including diesel and liquefied natural gas, and bolster supply chain resilience, the leaders of both countries said in a joint statement on Monday.

"We are committed to working together to strengthen energy supply chain resilience, including by deepening regional cooperation, accelerating renewable energy transition, addressing unjustified import and export restrictions, and maintaining open trade flows," the statement said.

Major Asian stock markets fell sharply on Monday after the US and Iran threatened to intensify hostilities as the war entered its fourth week.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down by 4.8% in early trading, while the Kospi in South Korea was more than 5.5% lower.

----IEA chief Fatih Birol has revealed that at least 40 energy assets have been everely' damaged in the Mideast war so far.

More

Iran US war live updates: Blasts cause fire near Tehran; IEA chief says 40 energy assets 'severely damaged'

Middle East crisis live: IEA chief says Iran war energy crunch worse than 1970s oil crises and Ukraine war combined

Fatih Birol says world is losing 11m barrels of oil per day, more than the 1973 and 1979 energy shocks combined; IRGC threatens to completely close strait of Hormuz if Trump acts on infrastructure threats

Mon 23 Mar 2026 04.52 GMT

50m ago04.18 GMT

IEA will release more stockpiled oil if needed, chief says

The International Energy Agency is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil “if necessary” due to the Iran war, its executive director has said.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Fatih Birol said on Monday. “We look at the conditions, we will analyse, assess the markets and discuss with our member countries.”

IEA member nations agreed on 11 March to release a record 400m barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat the spike in global crude prices. The drawdown represented 20% of overall stocks.

There would not be a specific crude price level to trigger another release, Birol said in an address to Australia’s national press club in the capital of Canberra, Reuters reports.

He said:

A stock release will help to comfort the markets, but this is not the solution. It will only help to reduce the pain in the economy.

Birol is beginning a world tour in Canberra because the Asia Pacific is at the forefront of the oil crisis, he says, given its reliance on oil and other crucial products such as fertiliser and helium transiting the strait of Hormuz.

After meeting Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese, Birol is to travel to Japan this week before a Group of Seven meeting.

More

Middle East crisis live: IEA chief says Iran war energy crunch worse than 1970s oil crises and Ukraine war combined

Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous

Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war 

Mar 22nd 2026

The third Gulf war is now in its fourth week. Every day that Iranian strikes on ships keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world’s output of oil and liquefied natural gas (lng) remains stranded. Every day, therefore, traders update how much supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices. Brent crude, at $112 a barrel, is 54% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas prices in Europe are up by 85%.

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Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous

In other news.

Diesel prices in Germany surge to near record high

March 21, 2026

The price of diesel in Germany has risen by more than 12 cents in the space of two days amid the war in the Middle East, according to data from the ADAC motoring association.

On Friday, the nationwide daily average price for a litre of diesel stood at €2.291 ($2.655), according to ADAC data.

That is just 3 cents less than the all-time high recorded four years ago, after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

The price of E10 premium petrol also continued to rise, with a litre costing €2.086 on Friday, up 4.2 cents compared to on Wednesday.

On Friday, a litre of diesel was 54.5 cents more expensive than on the day before the US and Israel launched the war against Iran, and a litre of petrol was 30.8 cents more expensive.

The increase has been driven by higher crude oil prices linked to the war, though there has also been criticism of oil companies for raising prices disproportionately relative to oil costs.

The first prices on Saturday pointed to a slight further rise in diesel and relatively stable prices for E10. However, recent volatility makes short-term forecasts highly uncertain.

Diesel prices in Germany surge to near record high

Work from home, drive slower and don’t use gas cookers: IEA advice on weathering the global energy crisis

Published Fri, Mar 20 2026 8:00 AM EDT

Supply measures alone won’t be enough to mitigate “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency warned on Friday.

Instead of waiting for disrupted production to recover, lowering demand could ease pressure on consumers and help bring prices down more quickly.

Minimizing road and air transport, working from home where possible, and switching to electric cooking could significantly help cushion the shock for consumers, the agency said.

Heightened geopolitical risk has rattled traders, sending not only crude prices higher but also sharply increasing costs for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, which directly impact transportation, logistics and consumer prices.

Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022 as supply has been severely disrupted, mostly due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The strait is a narrow maritime corridor off Iran’s coast that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and normally carries about a fifth of global oil consumption. 

Countries have already begun tapping strategic petroleum reserves, with hundreds of millions of barrels slated for release. 

The IEA last week agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war — the largest such action in the organization’s history — without providing a timeline for when the stocks would enter the market. 

Lowering oil demand

While policymakers continue to manage supply disruptions, coordinated efforts to reduce consumption could provide the fastest relief. 

“Addressing demand is a critical and immediate tool to reduce pressure [on] consumers by improving affordability and supporting energy security,” the IAE said Friday, as it laid out a range of measures that can be taken by households and businesses to lower demand.

Among the most impactful steps are encouraging remote work where possible, increasing carpooling and public transit use, and cutting back on non-essential air travel.

Measures focus primarily on road transport, which accounts for around 45% of global oil demand.

Working from home where possible reduces fuel demand for commuting, while lowering speed limits, shifting from private cars to public transport, and alternating private vehicle access in cities, could further reduce congestion and fuel consumption, the agency said. 

Measures to shift liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) use away from transport and towards essential applications like cooking can also help keep prices lower, as can adopting alternative clean cooking solutions that reduce reliance on LPG.

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How to weather the global energy crisis: IEA

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

West Asia conflict may trigger global inflation shock if disruptions spread; India relatively insulated: SBI Research

The report cautioned that escalating geopolitical tensions could create ripple effects across energy markets, trade and financial systems globally

Updated - March 21, 2026 at 03:18 PM.

A widening conflict in the West Asia could trigger a fresh wave of global inflation if it spreads across supply chains, asset classes and jurisdictions, though India may remain relatively insulated compared with many economies, according to a report by SBI Research.

The report cautioned that escalating geopolitical tensions could create ripple effects across energy markets, trade and financial systems globally. "Should the raging conflict in West Asia proliferate asymmetrically across jurisdictions, asset classes and supply chains, the cumulative shock could trigger a new wave of inflation globally: India still a notable exception," the report said.

The report added that while the immediate economic impact may be limited, disruptions to trade routes, supply chains and business sentiment could have broader implications for the global economy. "The immediate inflationary impact of widening conflict in the West Asia is likely to be limited. But potential trade and supply chain disruptions, weakening business sentiment and elevated uncertainty could have major consequences for the global economy," it said.

For India, the report noted that the key channels of impact could be remittances from Gulf countries and crude oil imports.

"The impact on India's economy may be a short-term impact on remittances and crude oil imports," the report said.India receives a significant share of its overseas remittances from the Gulf region, making oil price dynamics an important factor.

"India's personal remittances increased 15 per cent to $138 billion in FY25... GCC countries account for around 38 per cent of the total remittances that India receives," the report noted. Energy security is another critical aspect, as India remains heavily dependent on imported crude.

"India imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements," the report said, adding that a significant portion of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route. At the same time, the report highlighted that India has taken steps to diversify its crude sourcing in recent years.

"India... has strategically shifted to import oil from more than 40 countries, more from Russia since 2022," it said, which helps reduce supply risks.

The report also warned that higher oil prices could have broader macroeconomic consequences if the conflict prolongs. It is estimated that "for every ~$10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices may widen the CAD by 36 basis points and lead to a 35-40 basis point rise in inflation."

Overall, the report suggested that while global markets could face renewed inflationary pressures if geopolitical tensions escalate further, India's diversified energy sourcing and policy responses may help cushion the impact compared with many other economies.

West Asia conflict may trigger global inflation shock if disruptions spread; India relatively insulated: SBI Research - The HinduBusinessLine

Recession is guaranteed if crude oil hits this price... and Wall Street warns it is alarmingly close

Published: 05:08, 21 March 2026 | Updated: 05:09, 21 March 2026

America’s economy is holding up well despite surging oil prices - for now - but alarm bells are ringing on Wall Street.

Iran has closed off a key oil export route, disrupting global crude supplies and making everything from gasoline to airline tickets much, much more expensive.

A survey published this week found that many experts see the war’s impact on the economy as limited as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long.

The Wall Street Journal polled economists to see how high oil prices would have to rise - and how long they'd have to stay elevated - to push the US economy towards recession.

They said that oil would have to stay around $138 a barrel for about three months to push the US economy towards a recession.

So far, the Iran war has lasted almost three weeks and US oil prices have been hovering around $95 - compared to an average price of $65 in February.

‘I think that if oil were to hold above $100 for the next three months, we’d likely see very challenging economic conditions in the US,’ Tim Rezvan, managing director oil & gas equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets, told the Daily Mail.

Rezvan emphasized that even if the war were to end in a week, the lasting economic damage from higher oil prices could pose long-term challenges for the US economy

The Wall Street Journal asked 50 economists for their estimates on recession and oil prices on March 16-18.

Their answers ranged from four weeks to 55 weeks - or an average estimate of 14 weeks - that oil prices would have to stay elevated to bump the US towards recession.

When asked how high oil prices would need to go to lift the probability of a US recession, responses ranged from $90 a barrel to $200 - with an average estimate of $138.

According to oil market expert Dan Doyle, founder of Reliance Well Services and Arena Resources, domestic US oil production will not save us.

‘The longer the war goes on, the greater the recessionary risk,” Doyle told the Daily Mail’

Economist Robert Fry said oil would need to be at $125 for eight weeks for the economy to be headed for recession.

‘My forecast is contingent on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open to tanker traffic by mid-April,’ Fry told the Wall Street Journal. ‘If it isn’t, oil prices will go much higher, and I will put a recession in my forecast.’

The economists see the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 32 percent - that’s up modestly from the 27 percent probability in the January survey. 

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Recession is guaranteed if crude oil hits this price... and Wall Street warns it is alarmingly close | Daily Mail Online

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Scientists develop bio-based graphene foams that can be used to build aerospace objects

March 21, 2026

The search for materials that combine high performance with environmental responsibility has led researchers toward nature-inspired solutions. Among the most promising outcomes of this approach is the development of bio-based graphene foams.

These are lightweight, porous structures engineered using renewable resources and advanced nanotechnology

In the EU project Bio.3DGREEN, 14 partners under the coordination of Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) have developed graphene foams from renewable raw materials.

Sustainable lightweight materials for automotive, aerospace applications

They aim to create a sustainable alternative to conventional damping and lightweight materials for automotive, aerospace and marine applications.

These materials reflect the efficiency of natural systems while offering exceptional mechanical and functional properties for industrial use.

Many biological systems—such as spongy bone or plant tissues—exhibit remarkable strength despite being highly porous. Scientists have drawn inspiration from these structures to design graphene-based foams with similar characteristics. By organizing graphene into a three-dimensional network, researchers have created materials that can endure repeated compression and still regain their original shape.

Bio-based graphene foams

What makes this innovation particularly significant is the shift toward bio-derived precursors. Instead of relying on fossil-based chemicals, renewable sources are used to produce these foams, reducing environmental impact and supporting sustainable manufacturing practices.

One of the defining advantages of bio-based graphene foams is their ability to combine low density with high mechanical resilience. These materials can absorb mechanical shocks efficiently, making them suitable for applications where energy dissipation is critical. Unlike conventional foams that may degrade over time, graphene-based foams maintain their structural integrity even after repeated stress cycles, according to reports.

This balance between flexibility and strength positions them as strong candidates for replacing traditional materials in demanding environments.

Since this material is being used in additive manufacturing for the first time, developing the printing process is challenging: the paste made from coated metal particles and plant oil requires a specially developed feeding system. Additionally, the team will determine the optimal laser wavelength for precise material processing, reported Nanowerk.

With the Bio.3DGREEN project, the partners aim to demonstrate that additive manufacturing with graphene foams can be a high-performance and sustainable alternative for the production of shock-absorbing, sound-reducing, and/or lightweight structures.

As research progresses, bio-based graphene foams are expected to gain increasing attention in sectors that demand both performance and sustainability. Advances in fabrication techniques and growing environmental awareness will likely accelerate their transition from laboratory innovation to commercial application.

Bio-based graphene foams represent a new generation of materials that successfully merge strength, flexibility, and sustainability. By drawing inspiration from nature and utilizing renewable resources, they offer a forward-looking solution to many industrial challenges. With continued development, these materials could play a key role in shaping a more sustainable and efficient future.

Scientists develop bio-based graphene foams that can be used to build aerospace objects

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Gold and Silver have always had value, never gone to zero. Can you say the same for stocks and bonds?

Mark Skousen