Saturday, 28 February 2026

Special Update 28/02/2026 AI At Work Profitably For Criminals. US Inflation.

Baltic Dry Index. 2140 +23          Brent Crude 72.87

Spot Gold 5279                              Spot Silver 93.29

U S 2 Year Yield 3.38  -0. 04

US Federal Debt. 38.742 trillion

US GDP 31.193  trillion

 “Imagine a world where AI can diagnose diseases earlier, personalize education, and create a more sustainable future. That’s the potential of AI.”

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google

Update 7AM. Israel starts a new war. USA joins in.

For more on AI at work profitably, scroll down to the scandal next section.

Great news, for me at least, on Thursday I was able, after a week of walking, to get my repaired 2012 Ford Focus back after a notorious Ford Focus oil circulation failure, due to known problems with timing belt disintegration blocking the oil filter.

After paying a King’s ransom, Graeme is back to his great relaxation of driving again. I once drove 8,000 miles in 10 days in a Hertz rental, around the wonderful USA and a small part of great Canada, to see Niagara Falls in winter, among other forgotten reasons. If you can, try to see the GREAT Niagara Falls in winter’s depth, as well as in summer.

Two very rainy, but delightful days of that, were spent, with distant, in every sense or the word, relatives in Seattle. The good old days of being a young Anglo-Scot and invincible. Now I have to remember where I left the car and how to get back to it.

But, back to more important things, like trying to stay reasonably healthy and solvent in the 21st century's, increasingly absurd world fiat dollar reserve standard.

Worryingly, is US inflation back?

Dow closes more than 500 points lower after hot inflation report, mounting concerns about AI impact

Updated Fri, Feb 27 2026 4:22 PM EST

Stocks dropped on Friday after the latest producer price index data came in much hotter than expected, adding sticky inflation to a list of concerns that has caused market turbulence this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to close at 48,977.92. The S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.92% to settle at 22,668.21.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished in the red for February amid growing fears about the impact of artificial intelligence on specific industries and the overall economy. Those fears were exacerbated after Jack Dorsey’s fintech company Block said it’s laying off more than 4,000 employees — nearly half of its workforce. Stocks in the financial sector and other areas of the market tied to the economic cycle pulled back Friday.

Stocks linked to private credit were under pressure again as investors anticipated that they could be potentially suffer as a result of UK mortgage provider Market Financial Solutions’ collapse. Apollo and Jefferies were among the laggards, dropping more than 8% and 9%, respectively. Shares of Blue Owl, which has been hit recently in the wake of its liquidity curbs and asset sale, fell about 6%.

Notable software names suffered losses as well Friday as they close out a terrible month. Salesforce tumbled more than 2%, as did Microsoft, which weighed on the Dow. Cybersecurity company Zscaler shed 12% after deferred revenue and billings in the fiscal second quarter missed expectations. CoreWeave fell 18% on disappointing guidance.

Nvidia extended its post-earnings slide with a 4% fall Friday. The stock shed more than 5% on Thursday, a surprise to many investors who remain bullish on the chipmaker given its blowout fourth-quarter results and upcoming product cycle. Market participants attributed the decline in shares to doubts around Nvidia’s deal with OpenAI, weak sentiment over the AI trade and skepticism about whether hyperscalers’ lofty AI capital expenditures are sustainable.

Fueling the downbeat sentiment, January’s producer price index — a measure of wholesale inflation — showed a 0.5% increase for the month. Economists polled by Dow Jones saw the headline reading coming in at 0.3%. Perhaps more concerning is that the core PPI reading, which excludes food and energy prices, recorded a 0.8% gain, much more than the 0.3% rise economists anticipated.

Stephen Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners, views the PPI report as an additional complication for investors on top of the already-existing anxieties surrounding not just AI capex and the risk of its disruption to industries but also other factors such as stress in the private credit market. Noting that the inflation reading seems to be more services driven, he thinks it’s a sign companies are possibly starting to pass through the cost of tariffs to the end consumer in order to maintain their margins.

“Inflation isn’t solved yet,” he said, adding that it creates this conundrum for the Federal Reserve of deciding whether to cut interest rates to spur growth or to hold steady to continue to fight inflation. “It just creates this uncertainty around which way is policy going to go in the remainder of the year.”

That’s not to mention the state of the labor market as another worry, Kolano said. Even though job growth last month was much better than expected, the investment chief said he isn’t sure that the labor market is stabilizing given that layoffs have been picking up. In fact, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported earlier this month that layoffs in January hit their highest total for that month since the global financial crisis.

“I don’t see a clear sign that unemployment is not going to move higher just yet,” he said.

The Nasdaq posted a decline of more than 3% in February, seeing its worst monthly performance since last March. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is down nearly 10% for the month, bringing its year-to-date losses to almost 23%. The S&P 500, meanwhile, recorded a loss of close to 1% in February, while the Dow climbed about 0.2%.

Stock market news for Feb. 27, 2026

UBS downgrades the U.S. stock market. Here’s what has the investment bank worried

Published Fri, Feb 27 2026 9:37 AM EST Updated Fri, Feb 27 2026 11:59 AM EST

Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.

The dollar risk is a central concern, Garthwaite wrote. UBS forecasts the euro climbing to $1.22 by the end of the first quarter and sees “asymmetric structural downside risks” to the greenback. Historically, when the dollar’s trade-weighted index falls 10%, U.S. equities underperform by roughly 4% in unhedged terms, according to the bank.

Foreign markets are trouncing the U.S. this year as a weaker dollar and cheaper valuations draw capital overseas. The MSCI World ex-US index has gained about 8% in 2026, compared with the little changed performance for the S&P 500. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has rallied 17% year to date, while the Stoxx Europe 600 is up 7%, underscoring a sharp rotation away from American equities. U.S. stocks struggled again Friday as investors fretted over the potential downsides of the artificial intelligence build-out and persistent inflation at home.

Another pillar of U.S. stock strength — corporate buybacks — is also losing its edge, the bank said. The buyback yield in the U.S. is now only roughly on par with global peers, eroding what had been a key support for earnings per share growth and investor flows, UBS said. The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks in the U.S. is now about half that of Europe, the bank said.

“The buybacks yield is no longer exceptional and this had been an important driver of funds flow, EPS and valuation,” Garthwaite wrote.

Valuations add to the unease. UBS calculates that the sector-adjusted price-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks is 35% above international peers, versus an average premium of about 4% since 2010. Roughly 60% of sectors trade not only at higher multiples than their global counterparts but also above their own historical premium, the strategist wrote.

Policy volatility under President Donald Trump is another headwind. This year has brought shifts in tariff policy, proposals to cap credit card interest rates, potential limits on private equity investment in housing, renewed scrutiny of drug pricing, and suggestions to curb dividends and buybacks for defense companies, UBS said.

Still, the noted strategist stopped short of turning outright bearish. 

More

UBS downgrades the U.S. stock market. Here's what has the investment bank worried

Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected

Published Fri, Feb 27 2026 8:33 AM EST

Wholesale prices rose at a faster-than-expected pace in January, countering hopes that inflation was easing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%.

On an all-items basis, headline PPI rose 0.5%, also above the forecast for 0.3% and 0.1 percentage point more than the prior month.

For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%, while the headline index posted a 2.9% gain. Both figures are well ahead of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation goal and suggest that rising prices are still a factor for the U.S. economy.

Services prices primarily drove the increase, with a 0.8% month increase that was the highest since July 2025. By contrast, goods prices actually fell 0.3%, though core goods prices rose 0.7%.

More than 20% of the increase in services came from margins for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling. On the goods side, energy and food prices both fell while metals prices increased 4.8%.

Trade services prices surged 2.5%, helping boost pressures on wholesale inflation.

The report comes as President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that inflation has been tamed. Pipeline pressures as indicated by the PPI figures could keep the Fed cautious as it weighs its next moves on interest rates. Markets largely expect the Fed to stay on the sidelines until the summer, though Trump and other White House officials have pushed for lower rates.

PPI January 2026:

Why prices are spiking and what it signals for inflation ahead

27 February, 2026

U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in January, likely as businesses passed on higher costs from import tariffs, suggesting inflation could pick up in the months ahead.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% last month after advancing by a downwardly revised 0.4% in December, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.3% after a previously reported 0.5% increase in December.

A 0.8% jump in services accounted for the rise in the PPI. That reflected a 2.5% increase in trade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. There was a 14.4% surge in margins for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, suggesting businesses were passing on tariffs.

Prices also increased for apparel, footwear and accessories retailing, as well as chemicals and allied products wholesaling, bundled wired telecommunications access services, health, beauty and optical goods retailing, and food and alcohol retailing.

In the 12 months through January, the PPI increased 2.9% after rising 3.0% in December. The moderation in the year-on-year producer inflation rate reflected last year's high readings dropping out of the calculation.

The report was delayed by the brief shutdown of the federal government early this month. Producer goods prices fell 0.3%, with the cost of energy declining 2.7% and food decreasing 1.5%. Excluding food and energy, goods prices soared 0.7%.

Some of the components in the PPI report go into the calculation of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Indexes, the inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2% target.

Prior to the PPI data, economists estimated that core PCE inflation increased by as much as 0.5% in January, which would translate to a year-on-year advance of 3.1%.

Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in December and increased 3.0% year-on-year. The government will publish the delayed PCE inflation report on March 13.

Price spikes hint that inflation may rise in coming months

In other news, who invented the zip, when and why.

The History of the Zipper

By Mary Bellis    Updated on May 11, 2025

It was a long way up for the humble zipper, the mechanical wonder that has kept our lives "together" in many ways. The zipper was invented with the work of several dedicated inventors, though none convinced the general public to accept the zipper as part of everyday life. It was the magazine and fashion industry that made the novel zipper the popular item it is today.

The story begins when Elias Howe, Jr. (1819–1867), inventor of the sewing machine, who received a patent in 1851 for an "Automatic, Continuous Clothing Closure." It didn't go much further beyond that, though. Perhaps it was the success of the sewing machine, that caused Elias not to pursue marketing his clothing closure system. As a result, Howe missed his chance to become the recognized "Father of the Zip."

Forty-four years later, inventor Whitcomb Judson (1846–1909) marketed a "Clasp Locker" device similar to system described in the 1851 Howe patent. Being first to market, Whitcomb got credit for being the "inventor of the zipper." However, his 1893 patent did not use the word zipper. 

The Chicago inventor's "Clasp Locker" was a complicated hook-and-eye shoe fastener. Together with businessman Colonel Lewis Walker, Whitcomb launched the Universal Fastener Company to manufacture the new device. The clasp locker debuted at the 1893 Chicago World's Fair and was met with little commercial success.

It was a Swedish-born electrical engineer named Gideon Sundback (1880–1954) whose work helped make the zipper the hit it is today. Originally hired to work for the Universal Fastener Company, his design skills and a marriage to the plant-manager's daughter Elvira Aronson led to a position as head designer at Universal. In his position, he improved the far from perfect "Judson C-curity Fastener." When Sundback's wife died in 1911, the grieving husband busied himself at the design table. By December of 1913, he came up with what would become the modern zipper.

Gideon Sundback's new-and-improved system increased the number of fastening elements from four per inch to 10 or 11, had two facing-rows of teeth that pulled into a single piece by the slider and increased the opening for the teeth guided by the slider. His patent for the "Separable Fastener" was issued in 1917. 

Sundback also created the manufacturing machine for the new zipper. The "S-L" or scrapless machine took a special Y-shaped wire and cut scoops from it, then punched the scoop dimple and nib and clamped each scoop on a cloth tape to produce a continuous zipper chain. Within the first year of operation, Sundback's zipper-making machine was producing a few hundred feet of fastener per day.

Naming the Zipper

The popular "zipper" name came from the B. F. Goodrich Company, which decided to use Sundback's fastener on a new type of rubber boots or galoshes. Boots and tobacco pouches with a zippered closure were the two chief uses of the zipper during its early years. It took 20 more years to convince the fashion industry to seriously promote the novel closure on garments.

In the 1930s, a sales campaign began for children's clothing featuring zippers. The campaign advocated zippers as a way to promote self-reliance in young children as the devices made it possible for them to dress in self-help clothing. 

More

The History of the Zipper and How It Became Mainstream

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Today, AI at work profitably. Unfortunately it’s for crooks and fraudsters. Is an AI scandal about to unfold? (Don’t worry, it’s only Australian dollars, not real money dollars, like US dollars. Oh wait…)

Commonwealth Bank urgently calls in the police after $1 billion fraud

27 February 2026

Commonwealth Bank has uncovered what could be the largest fraud ever committed against an Australian bank after an internal investigation into its home loan portfolio - prompting the bank to refer the matter to police. The review was prompted by the so-called Penthouse Syndicate scandal, which allegedly saw NAB defrauded of about $150 million through property purchases. Police are investigating NAB employees accused of facilitating home and business loans as part of an alleged money-laundering scheme. The Penthouse Syndicate is accused of building a Sydney property empire worth tens of millions of dollars using corrupt solicitors, real estate agents and mortgage brokers.

In response, CBA began scrutinising its own lending practices, and uncovered about $1 billion worth of home loans that were allegedly approved using fraudulent documents. Some of those documents are suspected to have been generated using artificial intelligence. Mortgage fraud often originates in broker and referral channels, where third parties gather documents and submit applications on behalf of borrowers. In some cases, dishonest brokers or applicants allegedly inflate incomes, falsify employment details, or alter payslips and tax returns to make borrowers appear more creditworthy than they are. Because banks process thousands of applications each month and rely heavily on electronically submitted documents, falsified paperwork can slip through if verification systems fail to detect inconsistencies.

Once approved, loans provide access to funds that may otherwise have been denied. In more serious cases, criminal groups can use shell companies or fabricated financial records to obtain legitimate mortgages, then use repayments to 'clean' illicit funds. The property may later be sold, allowing money derived from criminal activity to re-enter the financial system appearing legitimate. Penny Dunn, a forensics and financial crime partner at PwC, told The Australian Financial Review that artificial intelligence is making document forgery increasingly sophisticated. 'It's very difficult for the human eye to see,' Ms Dunn said. A CBA spokesperson said: 'This is an industry-wide challenge, with fraud being attempted through mortgage broking and referral channels.'

While AI is helping criminals commit fraud against financial institutions, it's also being used by banks to rake in more profits. Just this week, CBA laid off hundreds of workers in Australia and launched a hiring spree in India after recording a $5billion profit. The Finance Sector Union said it will affect teams across retail, business and institutional banking, and human resources, with the majority of roles impacted in technology. Union national secretary Julia Angrisano said cutting 300 workers was 'totally unacceptable'.

'For years we have seen CBA continue to axe hundreds upon hundreds of jobs while raking in billions in profits,' she said. 'We've heard countless stories of CBA workers being tossed onto the redundancy pile and having to fend for themselves at the whim of the bank. 'These are the very workers who helped generate CBA's massive profits. The least the bank can do is retrain and reskill workers, and provide opportunities for them to remain at CBA.' The bank increased its India-based workforce by 21 per cent to 6,788 in the year to June 2025, a 138 per cent increase since 2022.

More

Commonwealth Bank urgently calls in the police after $1 billion fraud

Next, how AI is polluting YouTube. Caveat Emptor if trading off YouTube. Approx. 19 minutes.

Who is the "AI Asian Guy" and Why is he Manipulating Silver Markets?

Who is the "AI Asian Guy" and Why is he Manipulating Silver Markets?

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Lamborghini kills its electric supercar that nobody wanted

By Abhimanyu Ghoshal  February 23, 2026

Lamborghini seemed awfully keen to make an all-electric supercar a few years ago when it revealed the gorgeous Lanzador concept. But as it turns out, that dream was short-lived. After showing off the EV concept in 2023, the celebrated Italian marque secretly axed the project late last year, apparently to no one's dismay.

That's from The Sunday Times, which reported over the weekend that Lamborghini CEO Stephan Winkelmann said interest in all-electric cars in its target market was "close to zero." He added that he was mulling over what to do with the Lanzador before ultimately deciding to kill it off "after over a year of continuous internal discussion, engaging with customers, dealers, market analysis and global data.”

Buyers in this segment want something that looks, sounds, and feels like a supercar. “EVs, in their current form, struggle to deliver this specific emotional connection,” said Winkelmann. He emphasized that the noise coming from the engine is a prominent selling point when it comes to luxury vehicles – and you simply don't get that from electric motors.

The Lanzador was a 2+2 seater grand tourer with Lamborghini's signature aggressive styling, and high ground clearance to allow for versatility as a daily driver. The company intended to drop in dual electric motors, a new driving dynamics control system for precise handling, active aerodynamics for increased range and performance, and sustainable materials throughout the interior. It had been slated to go into production in 2028.

----At the same time, from a business perspective, major automakers are moving cautiously when it comes to investing heavily in EVs. For its part, manufacturing the all-new Lanzador would've required Lamborghini to expand its Sant'Agata Bolognese factory and grow its team. “Investing heavily in full-EV development when the market and customer base are not ready would be an expensive hobby, and financially irresponsible towards shareholders, customers [and] to our employees and their families," said Winkelmann.

At this point, Audi-owned Lamborghini is currently all-in on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which combine electric motors to boost acceleration with gas-powered engines for visceral performance. Its current line-up includes the Urus SUV, the Temerario, and the Revuelto, which are all PHEVs. Winkelmann says the company will stick to that lane until the time is right to go fully electric.

Source: The Sunday Times

Lamborghini axes electric supercar Lanzador concept project

 Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Another largely forgotten maestro. Approx. 14 minutes.

Giovanni Punto - Horn Concerto No.11 in E-major

Giovanni Punto - Horn Concerto No.11 in E-major - YouTube

Next, more fun with numbers. Approx.11 minutes.

The Map of Mathematics

The Map of Mathematics

Finally, the GB few know about. Approx. 16 minutes.

50 Geography Facts You Never Knew about the UK

50 Geography Facts You Never Knew about the UK - YouTube

“I’m basically an email typist now, Copilot does the rest.”

Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft


Friday, 27 February 2026

More Cockroaches, Private Credit Reality.

Baltic Dry Index. 2117 -04     Brent Crude 71.02

Spot Gold  5214                         Spot Silver 90.68

US 2 Year Yield 3.42 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.738 trillion

US GDP 31.190 trillion.

Corruption, embezzlement, fraud, these are all characteristics which exist everywhere. It is regrettably the way human nature functions, whether we like it or not. What successful economies do is keep it to a minimum. No one has ever eliminated any of that stuff.

Alan Greenspan

It’s the last trading day of the month. Normally a day to dress up the stock casinos for the all important, professional money manager performance bonuses.

But given what’s unfolding in the private credit, shadow banking sector, that’s a very risky strategy this month-end today.

Next month portends a likely collapse of confidence in the private credit, multi hypothecated, all too often fraudulent private credit sector.

Asia markets open mixed after Wall Street pullback on Nvidia slump

Published Thu, Feb 26 2026 6:57 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday, after U.S. stocks declined overnight as Nvidia shares tumbled despite a quarterly earnings beat.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.6%, while the Topix traded flat. The benchmark Japanese index hit 59,000 for the first time on Thursday before paring gains slightly.

South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.1%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.35%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 0.68%, while the CSI 300 slid 0.49%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was flat in early trade.

Asia tech stocks slid in early trading. SK Hynix, which is a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory to Nvidia, dipped over 2%. Samsung Electronics, which has been a decades-old partner of Nvidia, was down 0.69%.

SoftBank Group, a major investors in AI companies, declined over 3%.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 pulled back after the latest results from tech titan Nvidia and software giant Salesforce failed to boost the broader market.

The broad market index fell 0.54% to end at 6,908.86, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.18% and closed at 22,878.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 17.05 points, or 0.03%, to settle at 49,499.20.

Nvidia shares fell more than 5%, even after the chip giant posted a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat. The stock suffered its worst day since April. Other chip stocks such as BroadcomLam ResearchWestern Digital and Applied Materials also slid.

Asia markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Nifty 50

More Banks See Exposure Amid Loose Underwriting Fears

February 26, 2026 at 11:10 PM GMT

While some may disagree about the threat private credit poses to markets, a new crisis reared its head on Thursday. It seems that Barclays and Atlas Partners—the structured-credit arm of Apollo Global Management—are among firms that helped arrange more than $2.7 billion of loans to a UK mortgage-finance company that’s unraveled amid allegations of financial irregularities.

Market Financial Solutions collapsed into a UK form of insolvency yesterday, with the judge overseeing the case citing accusations of fraud and double-pledging of assets. Barclays and Atlas each lent it hundreds of millions of dollars. Jefferies Financial Group and Wells Fargo are also among those with exposure.

If this fact pattern sounds familiar, it’s because it is (think cockroaches). The unraveling of MFS is reanimating fears over loose underwriting in credit markets. Last year, the bankruptcies of US auto parts supplier First Brands Group and sub-prime auto lender Tricolor Holdings shook Wall Street. JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned this week that some of his rivals are doing “dumb things” to boost returns, reminding him of the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. David E. Rovella

More Banks Exposed Amid Credit Fears: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Private equity enters its ‘Darwinian’ era as experts warn some funds face extinction

Published Fri, Feb 27 2026 12:22 AM EST

Falling returns, investment exit worries, longer holding periods and tougher fundraising conditions are hobbling the private equity industry, with experts warning that only the strongest will survive.

According to a report by Bain & Co, private equity delivered low payouts to investors for a fourth consecutive year, weighed down by roughly 32,000 unsold companies worth about $3.8 trillion.

It’s taking longer to sell these businesses: about seven years on average now, compared with five to six years between 2010 and 2021, the report released Monday said, adding that exit volumes dropped by 2% last year.

“It’s a very bumpy road right now for PE firms,” said Romain Bégramian, managing partner at GP Score, which evaluates and verifies private equity firms’ value-creation capabilities. “Finally the long needed Darwinian selection is taking place.”

Private equity firms returned only about 14% of the money they’re managing back to investors in 2025, lowest since the 2008-09 global financial crisis

The industry has been grappling with weak exits and stubbornly low distributions to fund investors, known as limited partners, mounting pressure on fund managers to prove if they can still create value.

Fundraising has become increasingly concentrated among established brands with smaller or emerging managers struggling to secure commitments for new vehicles, even as they hold onto aging portfolio companies bought near peak valuations during the low interest rate, liquidity-fueled 2021–2022 easy-money boom, market watchers told CNBC.

“Based on the current environment, where we are seeing many funds, big or small, struggle to raise capital, there will be many managers who have raised their last fund; they just don’t know it yet,” said Kyle Walters, senior analyst at private market data provider PitchBook.

“And those in the former camp will likely wind down quietly, and that will be all you see or hear of it,” Walters added, referring to underperforming managers.

Data from Bain showed that buyout fundraising, or capital raised for funds that typically buy controlling stakes using leverage, fell 16% in 2025 from a year earlier to $395 billion, while the number of buyout funds closed — those that met the targeted fund corpus — dropped 23%, marking their fourth straight annual decline. 

The strain is not evenly distributed. Large-cap buyouts and managers tend to be more insulated, Walters said. Many run multiple strategies and manage huge pools of capital, which gives them a cushion when dealmaking or exits slow down. 

Global buyout deal value jumped 44% to $904 billion, but just 13 megadeals above $10 billion accounted for about 30% of that total, Bain report showed, with most concentrated in the U.S. Overall deal count fell 6%.

“This pressure is more impactful on middle market managers, especially emerging managers, who are trying to set themselves apart from their peers,” said Walters.

Across the board, what is clear is that the playbook of leverage and increasing valuation multiples is no longer sufficient, industry watchers said.

“The current environment is truly testing what managers can add operational value as opposed to relying on some type of financial engineering to generate returns,” he added.

Walters was referring to fund managers’ ability to drive earnings through concrete changes within portfolio companies, such as pricing discipline, working-capital improvements and management upgrades rather than relying mainly on cheap debt to chase valuation multiples.

Continuation, consolidation, extinction

Some industry leaders expect consolidation to accelerate as performance gaps widen and capital becomes more concentrated among top-tier managers.

There being more PE funds than McDonald’s outlets in the U.S. has been highlighted by experts, making a case for consolidation in an industry that seems to have expanded too fast.

Bégramian, however, points to the limits of consolidation as a neat solution. 

“Not all PE firms can be bought by BlackRock and Apollo, and they’re not in the market to buy everybody,” he said. adding that there was not infinite appetite among mega platforms to scoop up “every struggling general partner,” especially when what’s being sold is essentially fee revenue tied to portfolios that may include hard-to-exit or hard-to-value, so-called “gray” assets.

More

Private equity funds face closure and 'extinction' in Darwinian era

In other news, more resource nationalism?

Zimbabwe bans exports of all raw materials

Originally planned for 2027, the mines ministry announces an export freeze on raw minerals and lithium concentrate with immediate effect.

Published 25 Februay at 15:24 pm (GMT +1)

Zimbabwe has frozen exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrate, the mines ministry said on Wednesday, tightening control over materials key to clean‑energy technologies and defence industries.

The ban takes immediate effect, covers all raw minerals already in transit and will remain in place until further notice, the ministry said.

“Government expects cooperation of the mining industry on this measure which has been taken in the national interest,” minister of mines Polite Kambamura said in a statement.

Securing access to rare earths and other strategic minerals has become a global priority, given their role in smartphones, green energy systems, military equipment and many other goods.

This has prompted many producing nations to tighten controls and plug leaks in their supply chains.

Ensuring transparency

Zimbabwe “will be engaging the industry in the near future on new expectations and way forward”, said Kambamura.

“Government remains committed to ensuring transparency, in-country value addition and beneficiation, compliance and accountability in the exportation of Zimbabwe’s mineral resources.”

The export ban on lithium concentrates had originally been scheduled to start in January 2027, a deadline the government hoped would push mining companies to begin processing and refining the mineral locally.

The southern African nation holds the continent’s largest lithium reserves and ships much of its production to China for further processing into battery‑grade materials.

Mining is Zimbabwe’s second‑largest contributor to the country’s GDP, accounting for 14.3% of output after manufacturing, according to World Bank data.

On the same day, Zimbabwe pulled out of negotiations with the United States on a new health deal intended to replace the aid programme disbanded by President Donald Trump, the US embassy in Harare said.

Zimbabwe bans exports of all raw materials

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Gold to take centre stage at PDAC, with some predicting prices will hit $10,000

After years in the 'wilderness,' gold bugs get sweet vindication at the annual mining event amid bullion's historic run

By Gabriel Friedman  Published Feb 26, 2026

John Ing has been bullish on bullion for more than five decades, and he’s not about to change his tune as gold rips to US$5,000 per ounce.

“I keep on telling everyone the best is yet to come,” the chief executive of investment adviser Maison Placements Canada Inc. in Toronto said. “Yeah, it looks like a bubble, but when you look at the supply and demand, my sense is we haven’t seen anything yet.”

Gold in 2025 turned in its best annual performance as an investment since 1979, rising 65 per cent to US$4,547 per ounce by year-end. But it wasn’t done yet, as it kept smashing records to briefly hit nearly US$5,600 per ounce before settling down about 10 per cent to around US$5,000.

But one thing is abundantly clear as tens of thousands of geologists and mining professionals from all over Canada and the world converge in downtown Toronto this coming week for the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference: after years of optimism about bullion, even as its price sat in the doldrums, gold bugs have finally been vindicated as just about everyone else has now bought into their beliefs.

Ing said gold’s sudden surge will likely be a motif at this year’s PDAC, a convention he’s attended for decades, and the mood may be more celebratory than in previous years.

----The point, Ing said, is that gold bugs have suffered through some rough patches and some quiet periods, but, ultimately, everyone who invests makes money over the long term.

By his account, gold’s current bull run, though historic, would barely qualify as one if it ran out of steam now. Despite bullion’s meteoric rise since early 2024, he described it as just the “third” best gold run he’s witnessed in his career.

The first big boom took place in the 1970s, when gold rose to US$850 per ounce from around US$35. A nearly two-decade lull followed in which gold dipped back to US$250 per ounce. During the 2000s, gold heated up again, peaking at US$1,900 per ounce in 2011, followed by a long period of middling prices until more recently, when things went into overdrive.

“For a while, I and others were in the wilderness,” Ing said. “We’ve always said gold is a hedge against uncertainty, against inflation. It’s a barometer of investor uncertainty. For a while, I’ve been writing that and now others have adopted it.”

He predicts gold will run even higher in 2026, suggesting a 20 per cent rise to US$6,000 per ounce is reasonable by year-end, with a combination of rising geopolitical tensions, rising United States debt levels, central banks diversifying foreign asset reserves by purchasing gold and stock market uncertainty driving prices upward.

Gold’s price rise has also finally spilled over into the gold mining sector in particular and the mining sector in general.

In 2025, mining companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange turned in their best performance in a decade, raising $16 billion in equity capital, up 60 per cent from the $10 billion raised in 2024. It also accounted for about 48 per cent of the $33 billion in total raised by all listed companies in 2025. But that’s still below the $22 billion the mining sector raised in 2009.

More

Gold bugs converge for PDAC with new credibility | Financial Post

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

How can batteries respond to energy price volatility in Europe?

By JP Casey  February 24, 2026

Constantly fluctuating power prices in Europe present opportunities for the continent’s battery energy storage system (BESS) developers, but business cases need to be flexible to keep up with changes in the industry.

This was the sentiment expressed by panellists speaking on day one of Solar Media’s Energy Storage Summit 2026, held this week in London, who gave a number of examples of fluctuations in European power prices as an example of the kind of opportunities for the BESS sector to provide flexibility in the continent’s energy mix.

“Volatility exists where we have the transition to renewables, or we have an amount of renewable penetration that’s quite high,” said Dan Moore, head of BESS asset management at Root Power. “Those markets are the most interesting ones—they’re certainly the most volatile ones.”

“Germany is the market, in Europe, that has the most sustained merchant opportunity, driven by the depth of its intra-day market [and] the depth of its trading opportunities,” said Alexa Strobel, head of strategy and analysis at Field Energy, starting a discussion on the power price environment that spanned several individual European countries.

Strobel went on to explain that high solar generation—she said that Germany added 17GW of new solar capacity in 2025, compared to ”like 2GW of operational batteries” at present—drove spot prices to lows of -€450/MWh in May last year, and this trend is unlikely to stop as more renewable energy capacity is deployed across the continent.

----Building a BESS business case

Pino argued that deploying batteries in a manner in which they can be easily added to or expanded will be vital, as the rate of technological innovation in the BESS space continues to move quickly.

“We are building a 2-hour system, [and are] already prepared when it comes to foundations and electrical works to make an update to 4-hours quite easily,” he said. “You need to be quite careful on this saturation point; it already happened in the UK, that within the life cycle of a battery, the business case will change three, four, five or even ten times! You need to be prepared for that.”

The alignment of renewable energy generation capacity and battery capacity could happen sooner than expected in some countries, too. While Stober argued that many markets will see saturation happen “much slower” than in the UK, Koen Broess of Energy Storage NL (ESNL) said the mere announcement of longer-duration projects in some countries means their storage industries are entering a new phase of maturity.

“Saturation will happen, and probably sooner than most will expect,” he said. “The first 1GW 4-hour duration projects are being announced in Germany; if you build a project of this size, the solution of ancillary services will happen, for sure. Just make your business case not only dependent on ancillary services.”

Broess went on to suggest that developers could build batteries of different sizes, in order to participate in different parts of the market, and strengthen the business case of individual projects.

“If you build out 1- or 2-hour systems, you build them for ancillary systems,” he said. “If you build 4+ hour projects, you build them for trading and day-ahead market [involvement].”

More upcoming energy storage summits.

How can batteries respond to energy price volatility in Europe? - Energy-Storage.News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the start of a new trading month on Monday.  The start of Comex March silver deliveries too. Hopefully, an orderly, normal delivery process with most of the longs rolling forward to the May futures contract. Hopefully no new US war in the Middle East. Hopefully an end to the Washington-London War Party proxy war on Russa in Ukraine. Have a great weekend everyone.

“I would say with the amount of debt the U.S. has, US$10,000 an ounce, that’s where the gold price belongs.”

Harvey Organ, a retired pharmacist in Toronto, [who] has spent more than two decades dutifully blogging and reporting on gold trading activity on the Commodity Exchange Inc. (Comex),