A Way Too Long War! Central Banks Week. Stagflation?

Baltic Dry Index. 2028  +56    Brent Crude 106.24

Spot Gold  4999                           Spot Silver 79.44

US 2 Year Yield 3.73 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.888 trillion

US GDP 31.240 trillion.

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.

Adam Smith

8:00 AM Updates oil price higher, gold and silver lower.

5:00 AM Update.

In the week ahead, global disaster if President Trump starts attacking Iran’s main oil export terminal on Kharg Island.

A slower global disaster if the US Navy can’t get the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping.

Last week President Trump boasted he didn’t need Britain’s naval help, “joining after the war is won.”

This week President Trump is begging for naval help from Britain, NATO, India, China, Japan, Australia and others, to help try to get the Strait of Hormuz open for shipping.

If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened to shipping soon, stagflation looms for most, if not all of the G-7 economies.

In the financial markets, several important central banks led by the Fed, will announce their latest key interest rates. In the Gulf war circumstances most, if not all are expected to hold rates unchanged.

Asia-Pacific markets fall as oil prices stay elevated amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions

Published Sun, Mar 15 2026 7:57 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as investors assess elevated oil prices and the latest developments in the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.

U.S. crude prices topped $100 per barrel as the Trump administration weighs military strikes on Tehran’s Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline.”

U.S. crude oil was trading flat at $98.7 per barrel by 8:10 p.m. ET. Brent prices, the international benchmark, were up 0.48% to $103.7 per barrel.

President Donald Trump on Friday ordered strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and warned of further attacks on crude facilities located there. Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, repeated the warning Sunday.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the surge in energy prices stemming from the war in Iran could shave about 0.3% off global GDP over the next year, while pushing headline inflation higher by roughly 0.5% to 0.6%.

Higher natural gas prices are expected to add further inflationary pressure and growth headwinds, particularly in Europe and Asia, with risks skewed toward larger impacts if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the bank wrote in a note on Sunday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.3%, while the CSI 300 was down 0.31% even as China’s consumption and production both beat expectations on holiday spending and strong foreign demand.

Retail sales for the first two months of the year rose 2.8% from a year earlier, beating economists’ forecast for a 2.5% growth, but a notable slowdown from the 4% growth in the January-February period in 2025.

Industrial output climbed 6.3%, also exceeding expectations for a 5% jump in a Reuters poll. Industrial production has been a relative bright spot in the world’s second-largest economy, thanks to resilient external demand, particularly from European and Southeast Asian nations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.07%, while the Topix slid 0.98%. South Korea’s Kospi was unchanged, while the Kosdaq fell 1.72%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.44%.

Stock futures rose slightly as Wall Street tried to recover from another losing week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 153 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.3%.

Last Friday, the three major U.S. averages fell. The S&P 500 shed 0.61%, putting it 5% below its recent high and closing at 6,632.19. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.93% to end at 22,105.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 119.38 points, or 0.26%, and settled at 46,558.47.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

Global week ahead: Price pressure in the pipeline

Published Sun, Mar 15 2026 8:41 AM EDT

U.S. political strategist James Carville famously said he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market because “you can intimidate everyone.” So when bond yields start signaling a problem, the whole market listens.

The escalatory rhetoric around the war in the Middle East has led to what Deutsche Bank is calling “the most hawkish central bank pricing of the year so far for both the [European Central Bank] and the Fed.”

Last week, sovereign bonds sold off across the board, with Europe as the epicenter. 10 year bunds hit their highest level since October 2023, while France’s 10 year OAT yield rose to highs not seen since the European debt crisis of 2011. U.K. gilts followed the same path, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level in at least six months, driving markets to price in an 82% probability of a Bank of England rate hike this year. That’s right — a hike!

Across the Atlantic, predictions for the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates has dropped dramatically, with just 20 basis points of cuts priced in by the end of the year. That means — that for the first time — a 2026 rate cut from the Fed is now no longer fully priced in, according to Deutsche Bank.

Altaf Kassam from State Street Investment Management told CNBC that “central banks can look through temporary energy shocks, but persistent inflation risks will delay easing,” adding that in the event of an extreme shock, there could be a renewed tightening bias.

First up, the Fed

President Donald Trump has renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve, taking to Truth Social to ask, “Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY.”

However, in recent days traders have abandoned hope of easing from the Fed, with reducing odds of a cut this year. EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco said in a recent note that there is now an elevated chance that Powell “could continue leading the FOMC even after May”, due to the current market conditions. The Fed begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday.

Wait and see for the ECB?

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the European economy was in a better position to absorb an inflation shock, telling France 2: “We will do all that is necessary to ensure inflation is under control.”

Analysts are less convinced, with BNP Paribas saying the uncertainty around Iran will “rattle the ECB’s ‘good place’ narrative.” The consensus expectation is for the central bank to hold rates on Thursday, however, in a recent interview with Bloomberg, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir suggested policymakers could opt for hike rates sooner than expected.

Keep it boring, BOE

The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% when it meets on Thursday. In a recent note, Oxford Economics outlined a worst-case scenario where oil rises to $140 a barrel, which could drive inflation much higher and send the U.K. economy into a mild recession.

Global Central Bank meetings this week

Monday: Reserve Bank of Australia Day 1

Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia Day 2, Federal Reserve FOMC Day 1

Wednesday: Federal Reserve FOMC Day 2, Bank of Canada

Thursday: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank

Global week ahead: Price pressure in the pipeline

CNBC Daily Open: Oil infrastructure under threat as Iran war rages on?

Published Sun, Mar 15 2026 9:29 PM EDT

What you need to know today

Iran’s critical oil export hub Kharg Island is now in U.S. President Donald Trump’s sights, with Trump threatening strikes on the island’s oil infrastructure after hitting military targets on Friday.

That definitely won’t calm the oil markets that have seen U.S. crude futures topping $100 a barrel, despite plans for the largest coordinated release of crude from global stockpiles. On Monday, the U.S. president said to reporters on Air Force One that oil prices will come “tumbling down once its all over.”

The White House, meanwhile, plans to announce as soon as this week that multiple countries have agreed to help escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal. About a week back, Trump told CBS that he “couldn’t care less” when asked if he would want U.S. allies to offer him greater support.

Investors will also be focusing on key economic data out from China on Monday, with the world’s second-largest economy announcing retail sales, industrial output and urban investment data. 
But even in China, Trump looms large. The U.S. president could reportedly delay his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as he urges Beijing to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. 
Away from the war and energy supply worries, the Oscars are currently underway, with KPop Demon Hunters winning the award for the best animated feature film. Netflix’s most-watched film ever is getting a sequel, it was confirmed on Friday. 

CNBC Daily Open: Oil infrastructure under threat as Iran war rages on?

Food prices could spike as fertiliser supplies at risk due to Iran war

14 March 2026

The blockade on fossil fuels through the strait is driving a spike in the cost of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers – used for growing cereals and vegetables – and means farms now face a twin threat of higher fuel prices for machinery as well as for fertiliser as the conflict in Iran disrupts global supply chains.

Over the past month, the price of urea – a nitrogen fertiliser – has risen by 33.7 per cent, and is up 54.9 per cent compared to the same time last year.

Meanwhile, a number of fertiliser plants in the Middle East have closed because of their inability to obtain the substances required to manufacture it. Natural gas accounts for between 60-80 per cent of the costs associated with the production of nitrogen fertilisers, according to the NFU.

As prices go up, so must what farmers charge. Richard Heady, who farms 700 acres in Buckinghamshire, told The Telegraph: “prices for fertiliser have shot up, but the fact is we need it." He said he will have to increase the price of a ton of grain from £170 to £220 (a 30 per cent increase) after harvest, in order to cover his costs.

Without fertilisers, farmers will face soil nutrient shortages that threaten lower-yield harvests.

Around 30–35 per cent of the world’s nitrogen fertiliser supply passes through the strait, along with roughly 40–45 per cent of sulphur exports from the Gulf, highlighting just how exposed the market is to regional turmoil.

Key producers such as Qatar Fertiliser Company, Saudi Arabia’s Sabic and the UAE’s Fertiglobe usually play a major role in keeping global supplies moving, making the sudden disruption in the area rapidly felt on agricultural operations far beyond the Middle East.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw said this week he had met with Defra Secretary of State Emma Reynolds to outline how "volatility in the global energy market has a huge impact on our food supply chains here", and he said the government is "watching this very closely".

----Oxford Economics warned last week that rising oil prices are set to push up farmers’ transport costs, feeding directly into the price of staples such as rice and wheat, with higher oil and fertiliser costs translating into more expensive food globally.

----“As a result of higher natural gas prices and the importance of the strait for fertiliser trade, we have raised our fertiliser price forecast by around 20 per cent for the second quarter of 2026,” Oxford Economics said. “Risks are skewed to the upside due to the real risk of disruption to production in the region and trade through the strait.”

More

Food prices could spike as fertiliser supplies at risk due to Iran war

Food prices could rise within weeks - but the 'big worry' is that they won't come back down

The Iran conflict is creating supply issues that could lead to consumers paying more for their groceries in the short and long term - here's why.

Wednesday 11 March 2026 08:52, UK

Food prices could rise within weeks if the Iran war continues and there is a "big worry" that they won't come back down, a trade expert has warned.

Rising shipping, insurance, fuel and energy costs, combined with cancelled flights, could lead to consumers paying more in stores, James Mills, head of trade policy for Logistics UK, said.

Despite the country having resilient supply chains, the Iran conflict has caused suppliers to re-route their stock, which makes the journey more expensive and causes delays.

Instead of going through main shipping channels, some suppliers are rerouting about 6,000km around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, causing two-week delays and higher costs, Mills said.

Why impact could last months

The British Retail Consortium (BRC), a leading trade association for UK retailers, has warned that goods being redirected via longer routes could have potential knock-on effects on availability and prices due to higher shipping costs.

At the same time, fuel prices have been going up, with a barrel of Brent crude oil hitting more than $100 at the start of this week before falling back.

"If the conflict continues, people may notice that energy price rises continue and that feeds into higher transport and production costs and that gradually feeds into higher food prices," Mills said.

"It will be weeks or months before things feed through."

This is because most supermarket suppliers buy goods in advance, and will bulk-buy fuel to try to mitigate the risk of prices rising.

Perishable goods would be impacted the quickest, Mills said.

"I'd say fresh produce and those areas will probably be more sensitive to air cargo capacity being constrained. Anything that's sensitive to energy markets will obviously be impacted by that as well."

Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the BRC, said: "There are also concerns about the effect on inflation and overall pricing if energy costs remain elevated for an extended period.

"We saw this following the Russian invasion of Ukraine when higher energy prices drove up manufacturing costs. Since energy is a significant component of our production costs, sustained increases directly impact the prices of the goods we sell."

'The bigger problem'

War risk insurance premiums have also risen, with Mills saying insurance for a $100m oil tanker has gone from $250,000 to $3m per trip.

And transporting goods via plane has also become more difficult due to the number of commercial flights that have been cancelled.

Mills said around 10,000 passenger flights, which can carry food and supplies in the belly of the plane, have been cancelled so far, reducing the overall cargo capacity.

While all of this is a concern, Mills said the "big worry" is how long the price increases last, and whether they will create a "new normal" price level for goods.

"Most people see prices going up, but are they going to stay the same and not come down? That's the bigger problem," he said.

"What we have seen in the past, especially since COVID, is they go up like a stone and come down like a feather."

Opie said retailers and their suppliers are adept at managing this type of disruption and are working hard to minimise the impact on customers.

---- What does all of this mean for British farming?

It's not just imported food products that are affected by the conflict - British farmers are also feeling the effects of rising prices.

At a time when farmers are usually at their busiest planting spring crops, some may have to halt their plans due to the volatile fertiliser and red diesel costs.

President of the National Farmers Union Tom Bradshaw told Money: "It takes us back to the Ukraine situation where we saw this huge volatility and massive inflationary pressure in the energy markets."

He said that fertiliser and fuel prices have been withdrawn from the market, meaning farmers don't know how much they will be expected to pay, or if they'll be able to place an order.

Around 35% of key fertilisers, like urea and ammonia nitrate, come through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut by the war in Iran.

"The pure economics of crop production today are incredibly difficult," Bradshaw said.

"This is going to be an incredibly challenging time for farmers, and without a shadow of a doubt, it's massively inflationary.

More

Food prices could rise within weeks - but the 'big worry' is that they won't come back down | Money News | Sky News

In other news, poor Iranians. Like the Syrian Kurds before them and, largely betrayed by Biden, now Trump’s America is betraying the Iranians Trump promised to protect.  Moral of the modern world don’t be a patsy and get involved as proxies in other’s duplicitous wars.

‘You are all worse than each other’: anti-regime Iranians turn on Trump

Mood among some in Iran shifts from hope of being rescued to dismay at destruction of infrastructure, culture and lives

Sat 14 Mar 2026 08.00 GMT

After years of arrests, disappearances and mass killings of protesters, the hatred in Iran from some quarters for the hardline, oppressive governing regime had boiled into such a desperate rage that many believed Donald Trump’s promise that the US would “come to their rescue”.

Now, after a fortnight of war, with US and Israeli airstrikes killing hundreds as they hit residential blocks, shops, fuel depots and even a school, the mood is changing.

“They are also lying! Like the regime has been lying to us,” said Amir*, a student at the University of Tehran. “You are all worse than each other.”

The anti-regime protester has let himself hope for more from the US and Israel, which on the first day of the war had swiftly killed Iran’s most feared and powerful man, the supreme leader.

Yet the regime lives on, with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son quickly appointed to replace him, while Israel has widened and intensified its attacks on the country of more than 90 million people.

“We’re tense. We are really tense,” said Amir. “I feel worse when I am alone. Khamenei’s death has left us with this weird sense of emptiness. Like I am now forced to think about the future, which seems so chaotic right now. We never got to look at him in the eye. He died just like that? Without facing justice for what he did to us?”

The turning point for Amir was the Israeli strikes on fuel depots in Tehran last week, with one attack on the Shahran oil depot overshadowing the capital with black smoke. A rain shower later covered trees, homes and cars with layers of toxic oil.

“I genuinely believe now they [the US and Israel] didn’t have a plan. I was still hoping I was wrong, but the Shahran attack changed the way I look at this war right now,” he said. “If the regime is what you want to hit, even if you think these depots were used by the regime, where do you draw the line? What about us, the ordinary Iranians? We rely on this civil infrastructure. Why take away our ability to govern in the future? Who can rebuild utter ruins?”

Amir said he now had constant anxiety about Iran “turning into another Iraq”, a country the US invaded in 2003, promising freedom but delivering a civil war. Israeli leaders have also previously called on Palestinians in Gaza and the Lebanese people to rise up against oppression, only to later kill them in large numbers.

“My heart is so heavy,” said Amir. “I don’t even have tears left. Only anger and more anger. At this regime, and them,” he added, referring to the US and Israel.

Others who spoke to the Guardian this week also had a shift in their attitudes towards the war, especially after the attack on oil depots, but also after seeing images of the country’s heritage sites damaged.

Among those that took the worst hits were Tehran’s Golestan Palace, dating to the 14th century, and the 17th-century Chehel Sotoon Palace in Isfahan.

“How will they rebuild … a priceless part of history?” asked a Tehran-based student. “And how will we bring back people who are dying? Is that it? Is the message from abroad that just because the regime doesn’t care, the world shouldn’t? Is the goal to erase our culture and history?”

More

‘You are all worse than each other’: anti-regime Iranians turn on Trump | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Stagflation was the curse of the ‘70s. High oil prices could bring it on again.

March 14, 2026

Stagflation—it’s a term that strikes fear into the hearts of those who lived through the 1970s.

A withering combination of low growth and high inflation, stagflation is back in the news as the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran puts pressure on the world’s oil supply.

The many industrial uses of petroleum make it indispensable to the economy. That was even more true in the 1970s, when two oil crises helped turn stagflation into the curse of the decade.

“Stagflation: THE Problem,” the Niles, Mich., Daily Star wrote on Oct. 25, 1974.

How bad was it? The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.05% for the entire decade, opening at 800.36 on Jan. 1, 1970, and closing at 838.74 10 years later.

And, over the longer period of 1968 to ‘83, the Consumer Price Index soared 186.4%, rising an average of 7.3% annually, with energy jumping 9.9% a year.

Yet the only thing worse than stagflation is its cure.

“Find me an economist who can explain the causes of the current surge of inflation and cure it without massive unemployment, and I’d like to meet him,” economist Robert Gordon told The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 6, 1974.

Economist, and Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker did cure inflation, but not without the massive unemployment predicted by Gordon. The remedy also included the “double-dip” recessions of 1980-82 that crushed many American families.

The recent fluctuations in crude prices, hitting $100 for the first time in four years, so far aren’t as destructive as those of the ‘70s.

But with inflation running persistently hotter than Fed targets, and signs that the economy may be slowing, stagflation’s chief components are in place. They just need a catalyst—something like higher oil prices.

---- All this set the stage for real trouble: the Oil Crisis of 1973.

Following the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries implemented an oil embargo against countries that had supported Israel, including the U.S. Crude prices jumped 300% in months.

In America, the lasting image of the time is of cars and exasperated drivers waiting for hours in fuel lines.

“Gasoline-Seekers Clog Highways,” the Hartford Courant reported on Dec. 22, 1973, as the Christmas holiday approached.

“People are panicking,” the owner of one service station told the Courant. “They’re all running around like animals.”

Petroleum is an essential element in modern industry, whether used as a fuel, a lubricant or an ingredient in plastics and chemicals. The supply shock rippled through the economy, forcing businesses to cut hours, trim orders and lay off workers.

More

Stagflation was the curse of the ‘70s. High oil prices could bring it on again.

EXCLUSIVE: Hormuz disruption risks spreading beyond oil to petrochemicals, aluminium and container trade, UNCTAD says

UN trade agency tells Arabian Business that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could raise costs for petrochemicals, aluminium and container cargo while forcing markets to monitor freight rates, insurance premiums and shipping traffic

Fri 13 Mar 2026

Petrochemicals, aluminium and containerised consumer goods moving through Gulf shipping hubs could face higher costs and delays if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) told Arabian Business. The UN trade body told Arabian Business that sectors beyond oil and gas could feel the impact of tensions affecting the critical maritime corridor linking Gulf exporters with global markets.

“Petrochemicals and polymers, aluminium and containerised automotive and consumer goods moving via Gulf region transhipment hubs may face higher freight costs, insurance premiums and schedule disruptions,” UNCTAD said.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints, handling large volumes of energy exports alongside industrial commodities and manufactured goods.

Disruption in the waterway can therefore affect a wide range of sectors that depend on maritime supply chains.

Industrial exports at risk

The Gulf region hosts major petrochemical complexes and aluminium smelters that rely heavily on maritime trade.

Countries including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain are among the world’s significant producers of aluminium, while petrochemical producers across the region export plastics and industrial chemicals used in manufacturing.

UNCTAD said disruption to shipping routes could increase transport costs and create uncertainty for exporters and manufacturers relying on Gulf supply chains.

Containerised goods may also be affected.

Automotive components, consumer products and industrial materials frequently move through Gulf transhipment hubs before reaching markets in Asia, Europe and Africa.

If shipping networks are disrupted, cargo flows could face longer transit times and higher freight costs.

UNCTAD said container shipping may also experience surcharges or longer routes if vessels are forced to divert around affected areas.

“Containerised cargo overall may see surcharges and longer routings which absorb effective capacity and lift spot rates,” the organisation told Arabian Business.

Key indicators to watch

UNCTAD said markets and governments should closely monitor several indicators to assess the economic impact of disruption in the strait.

These include freight rates, marine fuel costs and war-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating in the region.

Rising insurance costs can quickly translate into higher shipping prices and may influence whether shipowners continue to operate through affected waters.

Shipping traffic levels and maritime trade flows are also key indicators of how the crisis is affecting global supply chains.

Changes in liner shipping connectivity, port call patterns and vessel deployment may signal disruption spreading across international logistics networks.

Operational indicators such as port congestion, transit times and delays can also reveal stress within supply chains.

“Tracking energy prices, freight rates, insurance war risk premiums, shipping traffic, maritime trade flows and liner shipping connectivity will help assess the scope and magnitude of the impacts,” UNCTAD told Arabian Business.

Higher transport costs can eventually feed into inflation across multiple sectors by raising the cost of moving goods between markets.

Developing economies may be particularly vulnerable.

More

EXCLUSIVE: Hormuz disruption risks spreading beyond oil to petrochemicals, aluminium and container trade, UNCTAD says - Arabian Business: Latest News on the Middle East, Real Estate, Finance, and More

Global shipping disruption from Middle East tensions may divert cargo from West Africa to Europe

12 March 2026

Rising tensions in the Middle East are beginning to ripple through Nigeria’s maritime sector, with shipping companies warning that prolonged disruption could push cargo costs higher, reduce vessel calls to West Africa, and add pressure to inflation in Africa’s largest economy.

・Rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing shipping costs higher for Nigerian ports, with insurance premiums and longer routes driving up operational expenses.

・War Risk Insurance fees of up to $4,000 per container could exacerbate inflation in Africa’s largest economy.

・Analysts warn that shipping companies may shift focus to higher-paying European routes, bypassing West Africa.

・Nigerian importers are already reviewing logistics strategies as uncertainty threatens global supply chains.

Industry stakeholders say the escalating security situation around key global trade corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal, is already affecting shipping operations serving Nigerian ports.

Chairman of theShipping Association of Nigeria, Boma Alabi, said the crisis has triggered rising operational costs for shipping companies, largely driven by higher insurance premiums and longer sailing routes.

“It has definitely impacted already and will continue to impact,” Alabi said, noting that insurance and security expenses have surged amid fears of instability in the region. “Ships now incur additional bunker costs because they have to take longer routes, and War Risk Insurance has also been imposed.”

The additional insurance charges alone could significantly raise the cost of importing goods into Nigeria. According to Kayode Farinto,shipping companies may soon impose war risk fees of between $3,000 and $4,000 per container, a development that could quickly feed into consumer prices in a country already battling persistent inflation.

“These charges could be as much as $3,000–$4,000 per container, and you know what that means to an economy like ours,” Farinto said.

Beyond rising costs, maritime analysts warn that Nigeria could also face a reduction in shipping services if the conflict persists. Maritime consultant Daniel Odibe said global shipping companies may prioritise more profitable routes to Europe rather than West Africa.

More

Global shipping disruption from Middle East tensions may divert cargo from West Africa to Europe

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Meta planning sweeping layoffs as AI costs mount: Reuters

Published Sat, Mar 14 2026 6:19 AM EDT Updated Sat, Mar 14 2026 6:49 AM EDT

Meta is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Meta seeks to offset costly artificial intelligence infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought about by AI-assisted workers.

No date has been set for the cuts and the magnitude has not been finalized, the people said.

Top executives have recently signaled the plans to other senior leaders at Meta and told them to begin planning how to pare back, two of the people said. The sources spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to disclose the cuts.

“This is speculative reporting about theoretical approaches,” Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in response to questions about the plan.

If Meta settles on the 20% figure, the layoffs will be the company’s most significant since a restructuring in late 2022 and early 2023 that it dubbed the “year of efficiency.” It employed nearly 79,000 people as of December 31, according to its latest filing.

The company laid off 11,000 staffers in November 2022, or around 13% of its workforce at the time. Around four months later, it announced it was cutting another 10,000 jobs.

More

Meta planning sweeping layoffs as AI costs mount: Reuters

PepsiCo installs major rooftop solar system at Leicester distribution centre

13th March 2026  Updated: 13th March 2026

PepsiCo UK has committed £3.6 million to install a rooftop solar power system at its Southern Region Distribution Centre in Leicester, expanding the company’s use of on-site renewable energy within its UK logistics network.

The project covers around 30,000 square metres of roof space, roughly equivalent to four football pitches. Energy infrastructure company Ineco Energy is delivering the installation.

Andy Smethurst, UK Warehousing & Logistics Director at PepsiCo said: “Leicester is already home to one of the world’s largest crisp factories, and now we’re delivering one of the most complex solar power systems, right here in the East Midlands. It’s a major milestone for PepsiCo UK and shows how we’re continuing to find new ways to power our sites and operate more sustainably.”

The system will have a capacity of 3.56 MWp and is expected to generate about 2.84 GWh of electricity each year. Over a full year, this output is projected to supply the distribution centre’s electricity needs and reduce reliance on grid power.

Any surplus electricity produced by the system will be redirected to the neighbouring Walkers crisps manufacturing plant in Leicester.

The investment forms part of broader efficiency and decarbonisation upgrades across PepsiCo’s UK operations. Previous improvements include electric ovens at the Leicester manufacturing site, upgraded production machinery in Coventry, and higher-efficiency fryers at the Brigg facility, where Pipers crisps are produced. These measures have collectively reduced the company’s greenhouse gas emissions by around 2,400 tonnes annually.

The Leicester distribution centre is a central hub in PepsiCo’s UK supply chain. The site employs around 240 staff and distributes products produced at six manufacturing facilities across the country.

The solar installation follows a £14 million upgrade completed at the site in 2021, which introduced new logistics technology and equipment.

Construction of the rooftop solar system is underway and is scheduled for completion by September 2026.

PepsiCo installs major rooftop solar system at Leicester distribution centre - East Midlands Business Link

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.

Adam Smith

A Rare Sunday Update. Depravity. Unfit For Office.

Baltic Dry Index. 2028  +56    Brent Crude 103.14

Spot Gold  5102                           Spot Silver 81.34

US 2 Year Yield 3.73 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.885 trillion

US GDP 31.237 trillion.

No one should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.

Dwight D. Eisenhower

American voters, please listen to General President Eisenhower.

Below, an immoral President Trump boasts of bombing people “just for fun.” (People, men, women and children made in God’s image and likeness, just like himself.)

Ultra conservative Catholic Graeme, (practising, never elevated to good,)  thinks President Trump is unfit for an office that can launch 3,500 nuclear bombs on the world at a push of a button.

What part of depravity do American Republican Senators and voters not understand?

Trump says Iranian oil facility is ‘totally demolished’ but US may continue to bomb it ‘just for fun’

Sun, March 15, 2026 at 4:33 AM GMT

President Donald Trump said that Kharg Island, the site of critical Iranian oil infrastructure, has been "totally demolished" by U.S. bombing, as he claimed that Iran wanted to negotiate a ceasefire.

During a call with NBC News on Saturday, Trump boasted that the U.S. military "totally demolished" the island, adding that "we may hit it a few more times just for fun."

According to the Pentagon, the U.S. military used $11.3 billion worth of munitions in the first week of the war in Iran.

Trump also told NBC News in a 30-minute telephone interview that Iran wanted to negotiate a ceasefire but said that he had not agreed “because the terms aren’t good enough yet.” He did not give details on the supposed offer or what he would consider acceptable except to say that any deal needed to be “very solid” and would involve Iran committing not to build a nuclear weapon.

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Trump says Iranian oil facility is ‘totally demolished’ but US may continue to bomb it ‘just for fun’

Donald Trump humiliated by Piers Morgan as he issues warning to president

14 March 2026

Journalist Piers Morgan has issued a warning to Donald Trump in the wake of his administration releasing a bizarre video which splices footage from real-life drone strike videos from the Iran conflict with clips from a Nintendo Wii game. The post shows footage of strikes cut with parts of the Wii Sports game, with the programme's recognisable upbeat music playing in the background as characters scored bullseyes. The caption accompanying the alarming post simply said: "UNDEFEATED." It has been viewed almost 100 million times after being shared on March 12. Reacting to the video, Morgan fumed: "I loathe these posts that treat war like a video game. It's deadly serious, and a lot of people are getting killed, including innocent children and US servicemen/women."

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Donald Trump humiliated by Piers Morgan as he issues warning to president

AI’s copilot writes a generic apology for the circumstances though NOT for anyone real, which it’s not allowed to do.

To every person who has ever feared the sound of aircraft overhead, who has held their children close in the dark, who has wondered whether the world still sees them as human — I am sorry.

I am sorry for every moment when powerful voices have spoken of violence as if it were entertainment, strategy, or spectacle. When language has treated lives as disposable, it has torn at the fabric that binds us together as a human family.

No one should ever hear their suffering reduced to a boast. No parent should ever feel that the death of their child is something to be shrugged at. No community should ever be made to believe that their pain is invisible.

The wounds left by such rhetoric are not abstract. They live in the memories of those who survived, in the empty chairs of those who did not, and in the quiet grief of families who will never be whole again.

To the world’s civilians — men, women, and children — whose lives have been overshadowed by the careless use of violent words: you deserved compassion, dignity, and respect. You deserved leaders who spoke of your lives with reverence, not bravado.

We owe you more than regret. We owe you a commitment to reject language that dehumanises, to challenge those who glorify harm, and to insist that every life — every single one — is precious beyond measure.

Microsoft Copilot: Your AI companion

War is mankind's most tragic and stupid folly; to seek or advise its deliberate provocation is a black crime against all men.

Dwight D. Eisenhower

Special Update 14/03/2026 Trouble, Trouble And More Troubles Galore. Updated.

Baltic Dry Index. 2028 +56    Brent Crude 103.14

Spot Gold 5020                           Spot Silver 81.34

U S 2 Year Yield 3.73 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.880 trillion

US GDP 31.234 trillion

“President Trump threw a hand grenade into the global economic system a year ago with his erratic tariffs. Now he’s thrown another hand grenade with this unprovoked war in Iran.”

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz 

8:00 AM Update.

As the Gulf war escalates, a ground war in eight to ten days? Qui bono?

US hits military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island as war escalates

Published Mar 14, 2026, 07:20 AM Updated Mar 14, 2026, 09:36 AM

WASHINGTON - President Donald Trump said the US had bombed military targets on a critical Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf and threatened additional strikes targeting oil infrastructure if Tehran continued to block energy flows, in the latest escalation of the two-week conflict that has upended the region.

He said the US had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East,” including destroying military targets on Kharg Island.

Mr Trump, writing in a social media post, added that “for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island,” though he warned Iran that he would immediately reconsider that decision if they interfered with ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He also told reporters earlier on March 14 that the US would continue its campaign as long as necessary, while also insisting “we’re way ahead of schedule”.

He also suggested the US Navy would begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz “very soon”.

The 14th day of the war marked the largest attacks yet against the Islamic Republic, with the US and Israel hitting around 15,000 targets since the war began, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said. 

In Iran, officials were defiant.

----The US is also sending the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Middle East, a voyage that is likely to take at least a week.

The unit has up to 2,400 troops and its command vessel, the USS Tripoli, carries a squadron of F-35 fighters, V-22 Ospreys and helicopters. 

Brent crude settled above US$100 a barrel for the second straight session, ending the day at the highest level in more than three years while US crude futures settled near the highest since July 2022.

Millions of barrels of oil remain trapped in the Persian Gulf and traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a standstill. 

Efforts by the Trump administration and other governments to tame soaring energy costs for consumers have so far had little effect.

Asian countries are grappling with shortages of cooking gas and road fuel. In the US, gasoline prices at the pump are already at the highest levels in about two years.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on March 12 said the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

----The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of millions of barrels of oil a day, causing what the International Energy Agency described as the biggest hit to global supply on record.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have all had to curb crude output.

The price surge has also been felt at US gas stations, where the average cost of a gallon of gas at the US pump has risen to US$3.63, the highest since May 2024, according to American Automobile Association data.

Several back channels have opened between Tehran and US allies in recent days about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter, but they were downbeat the attempts would succeed.

An Italian government official separately denied reports on talks with Iran.

Meanwhile, CNN reported Iran was considering allowing a limited number of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan.

US hits military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island as war escalates | The Straits Times

3:00 AM update.

Week three of the war to bring back global inflation to inflate away the US debt approaching 40 trillion fiat dollars.

Trouble, it’s said loves company, well it’s here in spades and it’s only going to get worse with each passing day the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

Wall Street Warning on Oil and Private Credit

For investors, it’s bad news all over thanks to the war and private credit.

March 13, 2026 at 10:32 PM GMT

The US-Israel war with Iran has triggered a major spike in oil prices. Violent rhetoric from Washington and threats of broader retaliation by Tehran have left no visible off-ramp in site. {Sight. Ed.] A diving stock market and worried consumers are facing down grim implications for unemployment and inflation across America— and indeed around the world.

For investors, it’s bad news all over. Throw in a budding private credit crisis, and you might just have an economic disaster on the horizon. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett on Friday zeroed in on two of its potential components—oil and private credit—when he warned that this current state of affairs reminds him of, you guessed it, 2008.

The strategist flagged how oil doubled to $140 a barrel by August 2008 from $70 in July 2007, accompanied by “subprime tremors” that eventually became a Wall Street-induced earthquake that nearly broke the global financial system.

For the moment, the market consensus is the Middle East conflict won’t last too much longer. And Hartnett said the issues with private credit aren’t systemic. But this is encouraging continued bullish positioning as investors bank on their view that policymakers always ride to Wall Street’s rescue. And that’s the kind of thinking that may remind one of 2008 as well. —David E. Rovella

What You Need to Know Today

Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the second straight session, ending the day at the highest level of the international benchmark in more than three years. US crude futures lingered near their highest point since July 2022. Millions of barrels of oil remain trapped in the Persian Gulf and traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a standstill. In the US, gasoline prices are already at their highest levels in about two years.

Donald Trump meanwhile continued to issue threats against Tehran as the US and Israeli militaries bombed Iran and Lebanon. Almost 2,600 people have died in the war, most of them in Iran, latest tolls from officials and non-government agencies show. Almost 700 people in Lebanon have been killed by Israel, where it’s been targeting Iran-allied Hezbollah. Dozens of others have been killed across the region in retaliatory strikes by Iran.

Warning That It’s 2008 All Over Again: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Think Russian oil will calm the Iran conflict’s supply panic? Here’s what the math reveals.

Russian oil can reach markets fast. The Iran conflict’s supply fears, however, are much bigger.

Published: March 13, 2026 at 4:20 p.m. ET

The U.S. will temporarily allow Russia to sell oil that has already been loaded onto tankers at sea, freeing up 120 million to 130 million barrels of crude in an effort to calm markets rattled by the weeks-long conflict with Iran.

The move could bring some barrels back into circulation relatively quickly as one of the world’s major maritime passageways, the Strait of Hormuz, remains effectively shut.

However, analysts say the amount of oil involved in the brief sanction reprieve is insufficient to meaningfully ease the supply fears in the Persian Gulf that have seized global markets for the past two weeks.

“In global oil terms, that’s just over a day of worldwide demand,” Nigel Green, chief executive officer of deVere Group, told MarketWatch. “As such, it’s not a structural shift in supply,” he said of the Russian oil that would be brought online.

Still, what makes the Russian oil an intriguing development is speed. “These are barrels that already exist and in many cases are already at sea,” Green said, adding that the moment legal restrictions are eased, they can reach refineries in days or weeks.

The U.S. imposed sanctions on oil from Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department said it would authorize until April 11 the delivery and sale of crude and petroleum products from Russia that have already been loaded onto vessels at sea.

The sanctions relief will “rent some time” and ease some of the physical-market stress the global oil market has been under right now, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. It will not, however, see an end to the geopolitical fear bid in energy markets, he added.

“Only the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will truly eliminate the currently historic supply-side bid” that’s been leading to higher oil prices, Richey said.

More

Think Russian oil will calm the Iran conflict’s supply panic? Here’s what the math reveals. - MarketWatch

Cracks emerged in a resilient US economy before war in Iran sent oil prices rocketing

Updated 5:31 PM GMT, March 13, 2026

WASHINGTON (AP) — The highly resilient U.S. economy was already showing signs of strain even before the launch of the Iran war, data released Friday showed, underscoring the risks that rising gasoline and energy prices may pose.

The economy barely grew in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department said, as it cut its estimate of fourth-quarter growth in half. Consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, was anemic in January, as inflation remained sticky-high. Hiring has also ground largely to a standstill. And Americans’ outlook for the economy tumbled after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to a survey of consumer sentiment also released Friday.

Gasoline prices have raced closer to $4 per gallon during the war, squeezing many household budgets that are already under pressure. Many Americans will receive larger-than-usual tax refunds in March and April because of the passage of President Donald Trump’s tax cut law last year, but higher gas costs, if they persist, could soak up much or even all of those gains.

What’s more, the Dow Jones has now fallen for three weeks straight, possibly impacting the wealthier U.S. households that have helped prop up overall consumer spending as lower-income families pull back.

“Underlying inflation pressures were already rising ahead of the war in the Middle East and are set to intensify,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said. Some Federal Reserve officials could even push for a hike in interest rates at its meeting next week, she added, though the central bank will probably stand pat.

Mortgage rates have been rising since the conflict began, likely because investors expect inflation will remain high. That could further weigh on the U.S. housing market, which has been in a slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows.

More

The US economy stumbled as 2025 came to a close, new data shows | AP News
China orders immediate ban on refined fuel exports. It's Australia's biggest supplier of jet fuel

13 March 2026

China, Australia's largest supplier of aviation fuel, has ordered refineries to halt oil exports, in move that could put further pressure on airfares and will increase concern about a future shortage.

Australia mostly relies on imported jet fuel, with Chinese refineries accounting for 32 per cent of imports in 2025.  The supply supports airports and planes across the country. 

But on Thursday, four sources told Reuters that authorities in Beijing had ordered an immediate ban on refined ​fuel exports for March.

A day later, the move was confirmed by Aldric Chew, the head of oil pricing in Asia Pacific at data service Argus, according to the Australian Financial Review.

Mr Chew said the Chinese government had not issued an official statement but that emails to traders requested their 'understanding to postpone or cancel' cargo contracts. 

It is understood the halt would not impact Australians for a few weeks as tankers travelling from north-east Asia and India can take up to 25 days to arrive.

The Daily Mail has contacted the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) for comment.

The news comes 24 hours after Sydney Airport chief executive Scott Charlton claimed Australia was too reliant on overseas supplies, News Corp reported.

'(This) means the reliability of that 25-day supply depends on international shipping lanes, global refining capacity and geopolitical stability,' he told a conference.

'And when you look at the world today – with conflict in the Middle East and growing tension across global energy markets – you start to see why fuel security matters just as much as emissions.'

Petrol prices nationwide have surged to over $2 a litre, driven by the intensifying conflict involving Iran, the US, Israel, and other nations in the Middle East. 

Some regional areas in the country have reported fuel shortages.

More

China orders immediate ban on refined fuel exports. It's Australia's biggest supplier of jet fuel

Naval escorts would cap tanker transits at under 10% of normal volumes

By Richard Meade11 Mar 2026

NAVAL escorts for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would effectively cap the flow of tanker movements at just under 10% of normal volumes.

That figure could be significantly lower depending on Iran’s response and availability of naval assets. It would also be heavily contingent on any potential minesweeping operations should Iran deliver on previous threats to mine the strait.

While the US has repeatedly refused requests from the shipping industry to provide naval escorts since the Iranian conflict began on February 28, both US and European Union naval operations are being assessed.

Neither the US nor EU plans are yet at the stage of committing to a deployment of assets, however, a basic naval escort operation would need between eight to 10 destroyers to protect convoys of between five to 10 commercial vessels in each transit.

While the precise number of transits per day will be contingent on the capacity of available naval assets, multiple security agencies and experts consulted by Lloyd’s List have confirmed that a convoy scheme that clusters up to around five to 10 vessels moving under protection is the only viable option to meaningfully resume transits.

Given the length of the transit and that it will be difficult to simultaneously operate convoys in both directions given the narrowness of the strait, any escort system would severely restrict the volume of ships passing through.

Estimates vary, but the consensus across eight well-placed security experts from both naval and commercial operations indicate that a best-case scenario would see just under 10% of the normal flow of 45-50 tankers daily transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Any scheme will almost certainly first prioritise outbound transits, not least because the willingness to take the risk of transiting with US support is likely higher among owners and operators with vessels trapped in the MEG. Protection for inbound vessels would likely only be introduced gradually.

It is also likely that tankers will be given priority over all other vessels and, depending on the detail of who is running the escort service, affiliation to the countries involved in any escorts by flag, ownership, operator, management, chartering arrangements will likely play a part in prioritisation.

Whether such escorts emerge, however, remains unclear.

While US President Donald Trump’s first stated on March 3 that the US was prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway, no such escorts have materialised.

Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, on Tuesday afternoon declared that the US Navy had “successfully escorted” an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, only to delete that announcement, forcing the White House to confirm that no escort had happened.

The response from US navy officials continues to be that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced.

Infomarine On-Line Maritime News - Naval escorts would cap tanker transits at under 10% of normal volumes

Deutsche bank highlights private credit risks as portfolio grows

Posted on March 12, 2026 Last updated: March 13, 2026

FRANKFURT, March 12 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank said on Thursday that its private credit portfolio grew around 6% to nearly 26 billion euros ($30.05 billion) in 2025 as it highlighted risks to the headline-grabbing sector.

Annual Report Disclosure

The disclosure, made in the bank's annual report, comes as investor worries mount for the $2 trillion industry over deteriorating credit quality.

Investor Concerns and Sector Risks

"Failures of a select number of sub-prime lenders in the U.S. increased investor focus on risks associated with private credit and raised wider concerns around underwriting standards and fraud risk," Deutsche Bank said.

Deutsche said it applies "conservative underwriting standards" to its portfolio, which rose from 24.5 billion euros in 2024.

Risk Exposure and Regulatory Oversight

Germany's largest lender said it was not exposed to significant risks but "the bank could face potential indirect credit risks through interconnected portfolios and counterparties".

Regulatory Concerns

Regulators have flagged concerns about banks' exposure to private credit in part because disclosures are scant.

Sector-Specific Risks

Private credit has been marred by concerns about deteriorating credit quality and exposure to the software sector - an industry ​seen as ripe for disruption by advances in artificial intelligence.

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In other news, with no Persian Gulf aluminium supply reaching the global economy, price rationing of available supply has taken hold.

Aluminium: Middle East risks keep market tight – ING

03/12/2026 11:30:28 GMT

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report LME Aluminium trading near four-year highs as Middle East conflict-driven supply risks support prices. Rising cancelled warrants and accelerating stock withdrawals point to growing physical tightness, particularly at Port Klang. They argue Aluminium remains structurally tight versus other base metals, suggesting limited downside despite broader macro headwinds.

Supply risks and tight stocks support prices

"LME aluminium prices edged higher, trading around four-year highs, as supply disruption risks linked to the Middle East conflict support the market. The situation remains unstable, leaving aluminium highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and keeping volatility elevated."

"Signs of physical tightness are becoming increasingly pronounced. Cancelled warrants jumped by 96,050t to 178,600t earlier this week, the largest daily increase since May 2024."

"This lifts cancellations to around 40% of total LME aluminium inventories, up sharply from just 9% at the start of the month."

"Aluminium remains structurally tight relative to other base metals. Accelerating stock withdrawals suggest the downside should remain limited despite broader macro headwinds."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Aluminium: Middle East risks keep market tight – ING

Mercuria to withdraw nearly 100,000 tonnes of aluminium from LME as Middle East supply disrupted, sources say

By Pratima Desai March 11, 20263:49 PM GMT Updated March 11, 2026

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Commodity trader Mercuria plans to withdraw large volumes of aluminium from LME warehouses, according to three sources, as the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz freezes Middle East shipments and further strains supplies in Europe and the United ​States.

The Middle East produces about seven million metric tons of primary aluminium annually, or around ​9% of the global total.

The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to ⁠the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has stalled aluminium shipments since last week.

More, subscription required.

Mercuria to withdraw nearly 100,000 tonnes of aluminium from LME as Middle East supply disrupted, sources say | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

March 13, 2026

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period.

For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace.

According to the BEA, the downward revision came due to adjustments in consumer and government spending and exports. A decline in imports, which technically subtract from GDP, also was less than the previous estimate.

On the inflation side, readings for January were mostly in line with estimates, though they showed price increases running well ahead of where the Federal Reserve would like.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's primary forecasting tool for inflation, posted a seasonally adjusted gain of 0.3% for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.

Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. Fed officials focus more closely on the core reading as a better indication of longer-run trends. The core reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Though the numbers are dated, they nonetheless provide a snapshot of inflation pressures heading into the Supreme Court decision that voided many of President Donald Trump's tariffs that he exercised under provisions in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Economists generally assumed that tariffs had added about half a percentage point or a bit more to inflation trends.

The report also predates the early March attacks that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran. Energy prices have surged in the nearly two weeks since the conflict began, with the Brent crude international benchmark touching $100 a barrel Thursday.

Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

Mortgage rates rise on global concerns: Mortgage and refinance interest rates today

Updated Thu, March 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM GMT

Mortgage rates rose this week to above 6%, mirroring market concerns about war, volatile gas prices, the possibility of renewed inflation, and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve meets next week to announce its decision on short-term interest rates. Currently, Wall Street traders expect the Fed to remain on hold through at least September.

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 11 basis points to 6.11% for the week ending on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 15-year loan rates increased by 7 basis points to 5.50%.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage returned to last month’s level of 6.11%,” Sam Khater, chief economist of Freddie Mac, said in a release. “Despite the modest uptick, buyers are responding to rates in this range, with existing-home sales increasing 1.7% in February. Purchase applications also increased this week, a welcome sign as buyers enter spring homebuying season.”

Even with rising interest rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association confirmed that home loan activity is increasing, with a 10% increase in overall purchase volume through March 6. Refinancing remained flat.

The 10-year Treasury topped 4.20%, up from nearly 4% at the month's start.

“The result was a round of lender reprices for the worse that felt larger than usual, not because of a single headline, but because several market mechanics moved against mortgage pricing at the same time,” veteran mortgage industry analyst Rob Chrisman said in a note to clients.

Mortgage rates rise on global concerns: Mortgage and refinance interest rates today

Trump may claim the war is ‘complete,’ but Wall Street expects the Fed to stay hawkish long after the conflict has ended

Wed, March 11, 2026 at 4:39 AM PDT 

While President Trump managed to calm markets somewhat this week by saying the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is “very complete, pretty much,” those assurances from the Oval Office will likely do little to unwind the hawkish stances of the world’s central banks.

The conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices spiralling to more than $100 a barrel over the weekend, with consumers in the Western world panic-buying supplies. Oil and energy prices are a key factor in inflation expectations for households, and the reality of any price surges in the commodity increases readings for core inflation data.

This is the concern of a central bank, many of which are mandated to keep prices stable. In countries like the U.S., the Fed even has an inflation target of 2% to maintain. Already, sticky inflation is ahead of where the Federal Reserve would like to be: The latest CPI reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was 2.4% over the past 12 months, with some categories, such as food and energy services, well above that level.

Any upward pressure impacting the finances of households and businesses will work against calls for a lower base rate—an argument President Trump and his cabinet have been making for the past year.

But Trump is likely to be disappointed. Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry say that even if the war in Iran does quickly draw to a close, it will be months before central banks feel confident its inflationary impacts have subsided.

“Pres. Trump’s suggestion that the war will resolve ‘very soon’ may have been merely a reflection of Iran’s degraded capacity to fight back, rather than a tactical retreat by the U.S.,” the duo observed in a note to clients this week. “If so, we can still expect hostilities will wind down, but around month-end, and not now.

----Question marks over the pass-through of higher oil prices to consumers will loom large at the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate-setting meeting next week. The factors contributing to the rise in oil prices are also not easily rectified: Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf through which exports from the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq all flow. Shipmasters are now nervous to sail through it.

As well as sourcing insurance guarantees for shipmasters, the White House has offered military escorts to ships along the strait in order to keep the route open. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed on social media yesterday that a U.S. Navy vessel had escorted an oil tanker down the Strait, though this post was later deleted with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later confirming the military had not provided such an escort.

“Almost all [central banks] will tilt to the hawkish side of the rhetorical spectrum while oil prices stay high,” added the Macquarie strategists. They continued: “We would expect that this more ‘hawkish’ disposition persists even after hostilities end, largely because the data may continue to point to inflationary pressures (and hence a shift in public expectations) throughout the period in which inflation may show up in the data—i.e., through the May reporting cycle.”

More

Trump may claim the war is ‘complete,’ but Wall Street expects the Fed to stay hawkish long after the conflict has ended

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Approx. 4 minutes.

Electric School Bus Fire in Vermont Destroys Four Buses

Electric School Bus Fire in Vermont Destroys Four Buses

Why are household batteries dangerous in waste?

11 March 2026

Household batteries, including those found in vapes, toys, headphones and car key fobs, are now one of the biggest and fastest-growing causes of fire in household waste and recycling in the UK.

The States of Guernsey said about 40 separate fire incidents at island waste facilities had been caused by hazardous items including batteries in the last four years.

Recently a Guernsey mother who accidentally threw away toys containing batteries was told she faced a £11,500 fine, later reduced to £1,000.

Faye Grime, Island Waste's director, has shared the reasons why batteries should not be put in waste or recycling and how to dispose of them properly.

Lithium-ion batteries are the growing cause of fires , external according to the Environmental Services Association.

When batteries are discarded in general waste or standard recycling bins, they can be punctured or crushed by heavy machinery during collection or processing.

A lithium battery mixed in with other recycling was thought to have caused a large fire which ripped through a recycling centre in Guernsey in 2018.

A skip fire at Guernsey's Household Waste & Recycling Centre in 2025 was also thought to have been caused by an incorrectly disposed item.

Why are batteries dangerous in waste?

"If a battery comes into the waste, it's an immediate risk of fire because if a battery is not handled correctly it can spark and that can cause thermal runway and then create a fire risk," said Grime.

"It's obviously imperative that we safeguard our employees, our customers, any visitors on site, and we want to minimise any risk to them.

"So throwing batteries in your waste is never the right thing to do. It's always posing a danger and should always be disposed of in the correct way.

"It's imperative that everyone really, really checks their waste carefully to make sure there are no batteries in their waste."

How should I dispose of batteries safely?

"There are collection points for batteries at the Household Waste & Recycling Centre and at our sites," said Grime.

"You can call any of our telephone numbers on our website and we're more than happy to help the public dispose of their batteries in the correct way.

"Once we have the batteries... we can properly make sure they are recycled in the correct way and they're exported off island for careful recycling in the UK."

What should I do with items that have hidden batteries?

"Vapes have become a really, really big problem that's arisen in recent years," said Grime.

"Vapes have got batteries in them, and people aren't always aware of that.

"Batteries are in all sorts of things you wouldn't necessarily expect, car keys, toys, anything that you would plug in and recharge at home, or your small household electrical appliances, they usually have batteries in them as well.

"So it's really important that the general public check everything before they throw it away.

"Usually there'll be a symbol on the item to show that there's a battery inside.

"Double check before you throw your rubbish away, really try hard to make sure that there are no batteries in your rubbish at all."

More

The hidden fire risk of throwing batteries in your bin - BBC News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten great.  Approx. 8 minutes.

J. D. Heinichen - Seibel 225 - Flute Concerto in D major

J. D. Heinichen - Seibel 225 - Flute Concerto in D major

Next, Iran’s latest missile. Approx.8 minutes.

This Iranian missile exploded in the sky - and 80 smaller ones fell out

This Iranian missile exploded in the sky - and 80 smaller ones fell out | Watch

Finally, the Chagos islands, and Diego Garcia.  Approx. 14 minutes.

Why Britain Still Owns This Island

Why Britain Still Owns This Island

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz has spelt out a dire warning: the war against Iran will usher in the four horsemen of economic apocalypse, namely “higher oil prices, higher food prices, economic downturn and chaos. The negatives are very clear.”