Tuesday 19 March 2024

Fed Day One. BOJ Ends NIRP. Nvidia’s Blackwell Apple?

Baltic Dry Index. 2419 +45              Brent Crude  86.68

Spot Gold 2155                    US 2 Year Yield 4.73 +0.01

It's always tempting to do good at someone else's expense.

Frederic Bastiat.

For more on Nvidia scroll down to the technology section.

In the stock casinos, more nervousness. A tepid tech bounce followed by what?

What if Fed Chairman Powell can’t cut interest rates this year, rescuing President Biden Joe Biden?

What if he delivers President Don Trump instead?


European markets set to open lower as investors look ahead to Fed meeting

UPDATED TUE, MAR 19 2024 1:19 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a negative open Tuesday as global investors look ahead to the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.

Recent inflation reports could prompt the central bank to signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. Fed funds futures currently forecast a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, it’s been a dramatic night for Asia-Pacific markets after investors assessed the latest central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The BOJ officially ended its negative interest rate policy at its March meeting, hiking interest rates for the first time in 17 years and raising its benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%. The bank also abolished its yield curve control policy, marking a historic shift in policy. Asia-Pacific markets largely fell Tuesday following the move.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and Fed meeting (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are little changed as investors digest news from Nvidia’s AI conference: Live updates

UPDATED MON, MAR 18 2024 8:01 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed on Monday after a bounce back in tech shares ahead of Nvidia’s inaugural artificial intelligence conference.  Heading into Tuesday, Nvidia shares showed signs of cooling as investors shift their focus to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.12%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 8 points, or 0.02%. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.22% lower. The S&P 500 broke a three-session slump during regular trading. The broad market index and the Nasdaq Composite entered Monday riding two-week losing streaks.

---- Wall Street is awaiting guidance on the path forward for monetary policy as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. A recent slate of worrying inflation reports has investors concerned that the central bank could signal interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. However, fed funds futures currently forecast a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“The Fed is going to be taking a lot of the oxygen out of the room this week as they conclude their March meeting on Wednesday afternoon,” said Sam Millete, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network. “It’s going to be a really interesting meeting because markets don’t expect any interest rate changes at this meeting, and in fact, don’t have any changes priced into the next meeting either.”

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Time is running out for interest rate cuts, market forecaster Jim Bianco warns before Fed meeting

The window for interest rate cuts may be closing.

On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco believes the central bank will likely stay on hold until next year.

“I’m in the camp that the Fed does not change policy in the summer of an election year,” the Bianco Research president told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “If they don’t pull the trigger by June, then it’s November [or] December at the earliest — only if the data warrants it. And, right now, the data isn’t warranting it.”

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut this spring, the economy would have to dramatically weaken, according to Bianco.

“The economy is too strong right now,” he said. “It’s in a ‘no landing phase’ as we like to call it. It’s not a Boeing plane. There’s no parts falling off of it, and it’s just continuing to move along at probably a 2.5% to 3% pace.”

This week’s Fed meeting comes almost exactly two years after policymakers started their rate hike campaign.

“It looks like we’re probably bottoming on inflation at around 3%,” he said. “That’s not 2[%], and the Fed has made it very clear that they need confidence for going to 2[%]. And, we’re not getting that.”

It appears Wall Street may be on notice. The CME FedWatch tool showed on Monday expectations for a quarter point rate cut in June dropped below 50%.

Plus, Treasury yields are climbing higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is yielding 4.328% —its highest level in a month and is inching closer to a four-month high.

“They may even go higher,” added Bianco. “It’s going to be the reality of inflation.”

More

Time running out for rate cuts, Jim Bianco warns before Fed meeting (cnbc.com)

In commodities news, the US intends to restock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by year-end. But why, if we’re all supposed to be going electric?

 

US aims to return emergency oil reserve to prior levels by year-end

By Arathy Somasekhar 

HOUSTON, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at year-end will be at or exceeding the level prior to a massive 180 million barrel sale two years ago, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Monday.

The U.S. is replenishing the SPR, after President Joe Biden's administration announced a sale of 180 million barrels of oil over six months from the reserve, the largest ever SPR sale, in an attempt to lower gasoline prices after Russia invaded Ukraine.

While the Department of Energy only expects to replenish by the end of this year about 40 million barrels since the 180 million sale, another 140 million barrels that would have been drained from 2024-2027 will stay in the SPR due to the cancellation in 2022 of congressionally mandated sales.

The department declined to provide a final number of stocks expected to be in the reserve at the end of the year.

The reserve currently holds about 362 million barrels. Stocks in the reserve stood at 565 million barrels before the announcement of the sale in March 2022.

Other congressionally mandated sales may also be canceled, Granholm said at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.

Having the SPR refilled is a congressional priority and "that's a conversation we'll be having with them," Granholm said.

Completion of maintenance at one SPR storage site will allow the U.S. to buy more oil, Granholm said.

More

US aims to return emergency oil reserve to prior levels by year-end | Reuters

 

Saudi Aramco CEO says energy transition is failing, world should abandon ‘fantasy’ of phasing out oil

HOUSTON — Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Monday that the energy transition is failing and policymakers should abandon the “fantasy” of phasing out oil and gas, as demand for fossil fuels is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.

“In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts as it collides with five hard realities,” Nasser said during a panel interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston, Texas.

“A transition strategy reset is urgently needed and my proposal is this: We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately reflecting realistic demand assumptions,” the CEO said to applause from the audience.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency forecast last year that peak oil, gas and coal demand would come in 2030. Nasser said demand is unlikely to peak anytime soon, let alone by that year. Nasser suggested that the IEA is focusing on demand in the U.S. and Europe and needs to focus on the developing world as well.

Nasser said alternative energy sources have been unable to displace hydrocarbons at scale, despite the world investing more than $9.5 trillion over the past two decades. Wind and solar currently supply less than 4% of the world’s energy, while total electric vehicle penetration is less than 3%, he said.

Meanwhile, the share of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix has barely fallen in the 21st century from 83% to 80%, Nasser said. Global demand has increased by 100 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the same period and will reach an all-time high this year, the CEO said.

More

Saudi Aramco CEO: Energy transition failing (cnbc.com)

Finally, Japan enters a terrifying financial unknown. Well for Japan anyway.

 

Bank of Japan ends negative rates, farewells era of radical policy

By Leika Kihara 

TOKYO, March 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of its unorthodox policy on Tuesday, making a historic shift away from a focus of reflating growth with decades of massive monetary stimulus.

While the move was Japan's first interest rate hike in 17 years, it still keeps rates stuck around zero as a fragile economic recovery forces the central bank to go slow in any further rise in borrowing costs, analysts say.

The shift makes Japan the last central bank to exit negative rates and ends an era in which policymakers around the world sought to prop up growth through cheap money and unconventional monetary tools.

"The BOJ today took its first, tentative step towards policy normalisation," said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

"The elimination of negative interest rates in particular signals the BOJ's confidence that Japan has emerged from the grip of deflation."

In a widely expected decision, the BOJ ditched a policy put in place since 2016 that applied a 0.1% charge on some excess reserves financial institutions parked with the central bank.

 

The BOJ set the overnight call rate as its new policy rate and decided to guide it in a range of 0-0.1% partly by paying 0.1% interest to deposits at the central bank.

The central bank also abandoned yield curve control (YCC), a policy that had been in place since 2016 that capped long-term interest rates around zero.

But in a statement announcing the decision, the BOJ said it will keep buying "broadly the same amount" of government bonds as before and ramp up purchases in case yields rise rapidly.

The BOJ additionally decided to discontinue purchases of risky assets like exchange-traded funds (ETF) and Japanese real estate investment trusts.

"We judged that sustainable, stable achievement of our price target came in sight," the central bank said in a statement explaining the decision to dismantle former Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's massive stimulus programme.

More

Bank of Japan ends negative rates, farewells era of radical policy | Reuters

Japanese bank trains staff for a novel scenario: positive interest rates

By Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara 

TOKYO, March 18 (Reuters) - As Japan nears an end to eight years of negative interest rates, a regional lender in Kyoto is offering e-learning to train up staff who have no experience lending money or collecting deposits in a positive interest rate environment.

One of the sessions, targeting roughly 3,300 Bank of Kyoto (5844.T), opens new tab employees, explains why interest rates are important, how the lending rate is set and how rising interest rates affect the bank's business and its clients.

In other sessions, the bank's older executives with experience of the days when Japan had positive interest rates share their know-how on convincing borrowers to swallow higher charges.

The e-training, which is offered in sessions of about 30 minutes viewable on smartphones, also aims to get younger staff geared up for intensifying competition to attract deposits, which until now had been a liability as lenders sat on a huge pile of money.

Other sessions offer more practical guidance on how to explain to borrowers that lending rates will rise and to increase deposits through better communication with customers.

"It's pretty basic because we want younger staff, in particular, to understand what it's like in a world where interest rates are positive," Tadashi Shimamoto, deputy general manager at Bank of Kyoto's human resources and general affairs division, said in an interview.

"It's crucial to have our staff understand that things are quite different when interest rates rise, and to change their mindset so we're ready when the moment comes," he added.

More

Japanese bank trains staff for a novel scenario: positive interest rates | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

House prices reach highest level in 10 months in March

MONDAY 18 MARCH 2024 6:00 AM

Green shoots continue to emerge in the property market as March has welcomed the highest rise in house prices in 10 months. 

According to a report by Rightmove, the average price of newly marketed properties rose by £5,279 this month to £368k. 

The figure trumped the average March increase of 1.0 per cent and is the biggest leap in 10 months. 

The number of sales being agreed is now 13 per cent  higher than at this time last year and buyer demand is now eight per cent higher than the year before. 

Despite the above average price increases in the opening three months of the year, asking prices are still £4,776 below their peak last May.

In London house prices rose by 0.9 per cent to £686k, remaining the most expensive in the UK. 

Rightmove said London has seen the biggest increase in buyer demand, both overall and for top-of-the-ladder properties, compared to this time last year. 

“The return to the office, wage increases, stable house prices and the slowing of inflation have all played their part in increasing buyer interest in living in the capital again,” it said. 

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property science, added: “March is typically a strong month for asking price growth, as both buyer and seller activity levels rise and the spring selling season gets underway. 

“However, the stronger than usual price growth this March indicates that new sellers are feeling much more confident, with some perhaps being over-optimistic, that there is enough buyer activity and affordability in their local market to achieve a higher price.”

Britain’s housing market has shown signs of recovery this year despite mortgage rates rising and the economy slipping into a technical recession in the last quarter of 2023. 

The UK economy grew 0.2 per cent in January, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in line with economists’ expectations. This followed a 0.1 per cent fall in December.

House prices reach highest level in 10 months in March (cityam.com)

China's BYD launches new version of Destroyer 07 hybrid at lower starting price

Reuters 

BEIJING, March 18 (Reuters) - Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab launched on Monday a new version of its Destroyer 07 hybrid car at a starting price 11.3% lower than its predecessor, Reuters calculations showed.

China's BYD launches new version of Destroyer 07 hybrid at lower starting price | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, something different, or is it? Could it be Covid related or Covid vaccine related? Could it be related to the massive over use of plastics and massive rise of micro plastics?

Scientists confirm the new number one cause of disease around the world

March 18, 2024

Scientists have confirmed that the new number one cause of disease around the world involves the nervous system.

Thanks to events like the Covid-19 pandemic and the re-emergence of ancient diseases, it can seem like there is no end to the harm humans might face.

But, a major US study has confirmed that the conditions which affect the nervous system, like strokes, migraines and dementia, are the leading cause of ill health. It surpassed heart disease for the first time after strokes were reclassified by the World Health Organisation from cardiovascular to neurological.

The analysis was conducted by hundreds of researchers, who were led by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Their results were published in The Lancet journal last week.

Their results found that in 2021, over 3.4 billion people experienced a neurological condition – 43 per cent of the world’s population. Experts were stunned by the results, which far exceeded the numbers they previously thought.

Neurological conditions have increased by 59 per cent over the last three decades. The rise may be attributed to our ageing and growing populations.

According to lead study author Jaimie Steinmetz of the IHME, the results show that nervous system conditions are currently “the world's leading cause of overall disease burden”.

Between 1990 and 2021, the researchers analysed how 37 different neurological conditions had an impact on ill health, disability and premature death across 204 countries and territories.

Using the data, it was calculated how many years of healthy life are lost to different conditions, with experts naming this number the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

Around the world in 2021, over 443 million DALYs were lost to disorders of the nervous system. The figure is up by 18 per cent from 1990. However, when the figure was adjusted for age and population size, DALYs and deaths fell by a third.

Stroke emerged as the worst neurological condition as it counted for 160 million years of healthy life lost.

Scientists confirm the new number one cause of disease around the world (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’

Nvidia on Monday announced a new generation of artificial intelligence chips and software for running artificial intelligence models. The announcement, made during Nvidia’s developer’s conference in San Jose, comes as the chipmaker seeks to solidify its position as the go-to supplier for AI companies.

Nvidia’s share price is up five-fold and total sales have more than tripled since OpenAI’s ChatGPT kicked off the AI boom in late 2022. Nvidia’s high-end server GPUs are essential for training and deploying large AI models. Companies like Microsoft and Meta have spent billions of dollars buying the chips.

The new generation of AI graphics processors is named Blackwell. The first Blackwell chip is called the GB200 and will ship later this year. Nvidia is enticing its customers with more powerful chips to spur new orders. Companies and software makers, for example, are still scrambling to get their hands on the current generation of “Hopper” H100s and similar chips.

“Hopper is fantastic, but we need bigger GPUs,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Monday at the company’s developer conference in California.

Nvidia shares fell more than 1% in extended trading on Monday.

The company also introduced revenue-generating software called NIM that will make it easier to deploy AI, giving customers another reason to stick with Nvidia chips over a rising field of competitors.

Nvidia executives say that the company is becoming less of a mercenary chip provider and more of a platform provider, like Microsoft or Apple, on which other companies can build software.

“Blackwell’s not a chip, it’s the name of a platform,” Huang said.

More

Nvidia announces GB200 Blackwell AI chip, launching later this year (cnbc.com)

Hot rock batteries are coming to Europe — soon

March 16, 2024

For investors in new decarbonisation technologies, there is one question that trumps all others. When will they become competitive with existing fossil fuel alternatives?

Solar and wind power have crossed the line; electric vehicles are close. The next candidate for this coveted position is the heat-based battery for plants and factories. 

Such electro-thermal installations, variously made of rocks, bricks and other materials heated with an electric coil, aim to solve one of the energy transition’s largest and least talked-about problems. Delivering high temperatures — anything from 100 to 1,500 degrees — to make food, beverages, paper, chemicals and a host of other materials accounts for about a quarter of current fossil fuel consumption globally. This is also 20 per cent of carbon emissions. 

Potential solutions, such as burning hydrogen or capturing carbon, are almost by definition more expensive than existing gas-fired boilers. So is using electricity directly: wholesale prices in the UK are around £60/MWh, almost three times the cost of natural gas. 

That is now changing. Advances in heat pumps, which get over the cost hurdle by delivering two to three times the energy they need to run, make them a candidate for temperatures up to 200C. Beyond that, electro-thermal batteries lead the field. 

Their selling point is that they can heat up bricks and such using the cheapest six hours of electricity in any given day. These can soak up the midday glut in southern European solar power, or a midnight excess of northern European wind. Then these batteries discharge heat over the next 18 hours.

Today, that would cut perhaps 30 to 40 per cent off the cost of electricity from wholesale prices. As more renewables enter the mix, midday prices might fall to zero or even negative.

On top of that, bricks and rocks are cheap — costing perhaps 15-20€/MWh compared with electro-chemical batteries at €150/MWh — and lose very little energy in the process. They are already competitive in Spain. Portuguese utility EDP last week joined up with San Francisco-based hot-brick maker Rondo to pitch this to clients across Europe.

There are still hurdles to clear. Today’s heat batteries only reach 400 degrees, according to a report by Systemiq, although some manufacturers say they can go to 650 degrees heating with steam. The lower limit would lop off around half of the addressable market.

Meanwhile, much of Europe has been saddled with an electricity-pricing mechanism that does not pass on the full benefits of cheap peak renewable production and lower grid congestion. But this is changing. Thus the business of hot rocks already has a solid future.

camilla.palladino@ft.com

Hot rock batteries are coming to Europe — soon (msn.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Life, liberty, and property do not exist because men have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.

Frederic Bastiat.

Monday 18 March 2024

Fed Week. BOJ Day. Oil Worries. The Vernal Equinox.

Baltic Dry Index. 2374 +24              Brent Crude  85.68

Spot Gold 2148                    US 2 Year Yield 4.72 +0.04

The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

Not much need for me to comment today, the articles speak loudly for themselves as to what’s happening this week in the stock casinos.

To no one’s surprise, President Putin got re-elected to a fifth term in Russia.

As the BOJ winds up its policy meeting on Tuesday, the US Fed starts day one of its two days of meetings.  On Thursday it’s the BOE’s turn to play God with the price of money.

Depending on where you are in the world, in the northern hemisphere the Spring equinox happens on the 19th or 20th. In the southern hemisphere it’s the Autumn equinox, same dates.

 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 leads gains in Asia markets ahead of BOJ meeting; China shares rise after data

UPDATED SUN, MAR 17 2024 10:58 PM EDT

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index led gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Monday, while China shares extended gains after data showed its economy kicked off the year on a strong note.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will start its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. A Reuters poll of economists is expecting the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5%.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 4.35% when it concludes its meeting on Tuesday.

In contrast, a Reuters poll expects the Bank of Japan to exit its negative interest rate policy and lift its benchmark rate to 0% from -0.1% when it makes its announcement on Tuesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.2%, while the Topix climbed 1.6%.

In Europe, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%.

Data showed retail sales and industrial production in China rose more than expected in the first two months of the year. The unemployment rate for cities was 5.3% in February.

China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.49% after the data.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index pared declines to trade near the flatline after opening nearly 0.3% lower.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.06%.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.42% higher after recording an almost 2% loss on Friday, while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 1.45%.

The Taiwan Weighted index was 0.41% higher, with shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company up 1.2%.

Asia markets live: Nikkei, CSI 300 gain; BOJ meeting; strong China data (cnbc.com)

 

Goldman Sachs now expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates Tuesday

Goldman Sachs now expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years at its March meeting this week, bringing forward its previous forecast for an April decision.

The bank’s senior Japan economist Tomohiro Ota cited stronger-than-expected salary gains at the annual “shunto” wages negotiations and subsequent Japanese news reports of an exit from negative rates at the BOJ’s March meeting that ends Tuesday.

“The BOJ has not sent any signal denying the news so far,” Ota wrote in a Monday note. “Together, these developments imply that the BOJ probably no longer needs more data for the policy change, nor to wait to justify the policy change with the quarterly Economic Outlook report in April.”

While a slim majority of economists are still expecting the central bank to raise rate in April, an increasing number of economists have moved their forecasts forward to March in the last two weeks amid signs that salary negotiations this year will be far more robust than expected.

Ota said he expects the BOJ to abolish its yield curve control policy, which the central bank employs to target longer-term interest rates, by buying and selling bonds as necessary. Still, he expects the central bank will “not explicitly commit” to the size of its Japanese government bond purchases or the cessation of its ETF purchases.

“The overshooting commitment, by which the BOJ commits to increase monetary base, is likely to be abolished as well,” he added.

While the central bank has effectively loosened its yield curve control policy over longer term interest rates over the past 16 months, it has kept interest rates at -0.1% and still maintains an upper limit for 10-year Japanese government bond yield at 1% as a reference.

More

BOJ meeting: Goldman expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates in March (cnbc.com)

 

China kicks off the year on strong note as retail, industrial data tops expectations

BEIJING —  China’s economic data for the first two months of the year beat analysts’ expectations across the board on Monday.

Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth.

Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2%, more than the 3.2% estimated by analysts.

The unemployment rate in February for cities came in at 5.3%.

Online retail sales of physical goods rose 14.4% from a year earlier during the first two months of the year.

Investment into real estate fell 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. Investment in infrastructure rose by 6.3% while those in manufacturing increased by 9.4% during that time.

“We believe China’s sequential growth momentum remained solid in Q1 despite notable divergence across sectors,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Monday following the data release.

“However, to secure the ambitious “around 5%” growth target this year, more policy easing is still necessary, especially on the demand-side (e.g., fiscal, housing and consumption).”

Despite the upbeat results, National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua cautioned that domestic demand remains insufficient.

---- When asked about the unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24, Liu said the figures would be released a few days after the monthly press conference on economic data.

Economic figures for January and February are typically combined in China to smooth out variations from the Lunar New Year, which can fall in either month depending on the calendar year. It is the country’s biggest national holiday, in which factories and businesses remain closed for at least a week.

More

China retail sales, industrial data for first 2 months beats expectations (cnbc.com)

But, there’s many a slip ‘tween cusp and lip, all the more so in property depression China.

 

China February new bank loans dip more than expected, lending growth at record low

New bank lending in China fell more than expected in February from a record high the previous month, even as the central bank seeks to spur sluggish economic growth and fight deflationary pressures.

Chinese banks extended 1.45 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion) in new yuan loans in February, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the People’s Bank of China, or PBOC, down sharply from January and falling short of analysts’ expectations.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 10.1% from a year earlier — the lowest on record — compared with 10.4% growth in January. Analysts had expected 10.2%.

A pull-back in February from January was widely expected, because Chinese banks tend to front-load loans at the beginning of the year to get high-quality customers and win market share.

The timing of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in February this year versus late January in 2023, may also have weighed on lending activity last month.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would fall to 1.50 trillion yuan in February from 4.92 trillion yuan the previous month and against 1.81 trillion yuan a year earlier.

“Aggregate financing and new loans came in weaker than expected amid limited high-quality borrowing demand, showing the limited immediate impact of February’s cut in the required reserve ratio,” analysts at ING said in a note.

“Although the PBOC has signaled further RRR cuts to come, a lack of high-quality borrowing demand could limit the effectiveness of RRR cuts in stimulating the economy.”

More

China February new bank loans dip more than expected, lending growth at record low (cnbc.com)

 

Oil prices build on last week's gains as supply risks rise

By Mohi Narayan and Colleen Howe 

NEW DELHI, March 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up in Asian trade on Monday, extending gains from last week when prices rose nearly 4% on the view that supply was tightening, with the risks heightened by further attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Brent crude oil futures for May delivery climbed 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.66 a barrel by 0416 GMT. The April contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 40 cents, or 0.5%, at $81.44. The more active May delivery contract for WTI traded 37 cents, or 0.5%, higher at $80.95 per barrel.

"The strikes on Russian refineries added $2-$3 per barrel of risk premium to crude last week, which remains in place as we start this week with more attacks over the weekend," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

But for the next substantial move up or down, crude will await fresh signals, Hari added.

On Saturday, one of the strikes sparked a brief fire at the Slavyansk refinery in Kasnodar, which processes 8.5 million metric tons of crude oil a year, or 170,000 barrels per day.

A Reuters analysis found the attacks have idled around 7% of Russian refining capacity in the first quarter. The refining complexes process and export crude varieties to several markets including China and India.

In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Sunday he will proceed with plans to push into Gaza's Rafah enclave where more than 1 million displaced people are sheltering, defying pressure from Israel's allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the step would make regional peace "very difficult".

More

Oil prices build on last week's gains as supply risks rise | Reuters

Next up, more on that cashless society future nightmare.

 

Sainsbury's and Tesco IT meltdown highlights 'catastrophic' dangers of cashless society and our reliance on 'digital infrastructure', tech experts warn - after thousands of shoppers were left without groceries

March 17, 2024

The IT meltdowns suffered by Sainsbury's and Tesco highlight the dangers of relying on cashless payments which puts our society 'at risk', experts have warned.

On Saturday morning, Sainsbury's experienced a 'technical issue' which created chaos for thousands of people on one of the busiest shopping days of the week.

The supermarket chain cancelled online orders and couldn't accept contactless payments - so shoppers either had to pay in cash, or scramble to try and remember their PIN.

While people desperately queued to use nearby ATMs - the dramatic uptick in cash withdrawal meant many of the machines ran out.

Many loyal shoppers turned to rival chain Tesco - it also experienced issues with online orders, with a small proportion being cancelled. 

An expert has told MailOnline how depending on a cashless society could be 'catastrophic' - as frustrated shoppers take to social media to vent their anger.

More

Sainsbury's and Tesco IT meltdown highlights 'catastrophic' dangers of cashless society and our reliance on 'digital infrastructure', tech experts warn - after thousands of shoppers were left without groceries over payment glitch (msn.com)

Finally, yet another warning on Uncle Scam’s rising out of control debt. Not that anyone cares (yet.) Debt is never a problem, until one day it is.

 

Rogoff Says Biden, Trump Favor ‘Blowing Up’ US Debt

Wed, March 13, 2024 at 5:41 PM GMT

(Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said both President Joe Biden and his predecessor and challenger Donald Trump risk sending US debt levels into dangerous territory as Washington fails to grasp that the era of ultra-low interest rates won’t come back.

 

“Washington in general has a very relaxed attitude towards debt that I think they’re going to be sorry about,” Rogoff said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. “It’s just not the free lunch that Congress and perhaps the two presidential candidates have gotten used to.”

While an exact “upper limit” for the federal debt cannot be known — it’s estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to climb to 116% of US gross domestic product by 2034 from 99% today — Rogoff warned that there will be challenges as the level increases.

The former International Monetary Fund chief economist said the escalating borrowing load will create volatility in inflation and interest rates, and encourage political pressures on the Federal Reserve. Current CBO projections also leave “a lot of room for accidents” that drive debt even higher.

You’re taking bigger and bigger risks,” Rogoff said. “We will feel that.”

Both candidates may favor policies that will drive borrowing higher, he said. “Biden’s speech suggested blowing up the debt,” he said — even after the president in his State of the Union address last week proposed tax hikes to help to pay for spending priorities.

“We have really no idea what Donald Trump will do, but that’s what he did last time he was president — good guess he will do it again,” Rogoff said, referring to widening fiscal deficits when Trump was president 2017-21.

More

Rogoff Says Biden, Trump Favor ‘Blowing Up’ US Debt (yahoo.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US Economy Shifts 'From Goldilocks To Stagflation': Top Wall Street Analyst Explains Why Crypto, Gold Are At All-Time Highs

Mar. 15, 2024, 11:17 AM

Bank of America’s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, expects the U.S. economy to shift in 2024 from a ‘goldilocks’ phase into a ‘stagflation’ scenario.

This transition is characterized by a slowdown in growth to below 2%, while inflation stubbornly hovers between 3-4%.

Crypto: The Time Of Monsters?

Hartnett also highlighted the record-breaking week for cryptocurrency. About $3.4 billion was funneled into crypto funds. So far this year, there has been a 57% surge in crypto asset prices.

To highlight the significance of these movements, he invokes the words of Marxist theorist and social activist Antonio Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters.”

Inflation And Debt Trends: Risks Of Policy Credibility For The Fed?

Hartnett underlined the recent uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, projecting an increase to 3.6% for the headline CPI and 4% for the core CPI on a year-on-year basis by June.

This comes at a critical moment when the market anticipates a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a challenging road ahead for policymakers.

At the same time, the fiscal landscape presents its own challenges, with a 9% year-on-year increase in government spending on military and interest payments in the last five months. This has contributed to a 15% increase in the budget deficit, on track to hit $2.0 trillion annually, and has led to U.S. government debt increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days, Hartnett noted.

The resulting pressure on U.S. Treasury bond yields, now threatening to break out towards 4½%, cannot be ignored.

The Fed’s implicit tolerance of higher inflation may serve to ease the burden of U.S. debt, but Hartnett warns this comes at the cost of policy credibility and potentially leads to a weaker currency.

This environment, he argues, is why cryptocurrencies and gold are reaching all-time highs, as investors seek refuge in assets perceived to be safer or more resilient to inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty.

Stagflation’s Silver Linings: Investment Opportunities

More

US Economy Shifts 'From Goldilocks To Stagflation': Top Wall Street Analyst Explains Why Crypto, Gold Are At All-Time Highs | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Doctor Challenges Official Narrative on COVID-19 Vaccine Safety

March 15, 2024

From President Joe Biden to the former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to your local physician, those in authority repeated the mantra that COVID-19 vaccines were “safe and effective.”

 

However, Dr. Pierre Kory, a pulmonary critical care physician and the head of a team of medical professionals who develop prevention and treatment protocols for COVID-19, begged to differ. Appearing on “The Tucker Carlson Encounter” on X, Kory said the data didn’t support such a statement but actually supports the opposite conclusion.

 

Kory is president of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance, an organization started by five intensive care unit doctors who were on the front lines of patient treatment when the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. He gained national attention for advocating widespread off-label use of certain drugs such as ivermectin as treatments for COVID-19.

Kory told Carlson that excess fatalities and disability claims started to skyrocket when people started taking the COVID-19 vaccines. He said data showing a dramatic increase in deaths among young people and white-collar workers drew him to ask these questions: “Why was there an explosion in dying in the youngest and healthiest sectors of society, and why did the employed fare far worse than those that weren’t?”

 

Americans’ life expectancy dropped by three years during the three years of the pandemic, he said, and in those same three years, 4 million Americans joined the disability rolls.

Since the pandemic, Kory said he has seen more people coming into his clinic complaining about a whole series of problems they developed after taking the vaccines.

More

Medical Expert Exposes COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation (dailysignal.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

So you really, really, really want to ride in an electric bus? Approx. 8 minutes.

Electric Bus Fires Worldwide

Electric Bus Fires Worldwide (youtube.com)

And this week’s March Equinox.

March equinox 2024: All you need to know

March 17, 2024

What is it? The March equinox – aka the vernal equinox – marks the sun’s crossing above Earth’s equator, moving from south to north. Earth’s tilt on its axis is what causes this northward shift of the sun’s path across our sky at this time of year. Earth’s tilt is now bringing spring and summer to the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, the March equinox marks the beginning of autumn – and a shift toward winter – in the Southern Hemisphere.
When is it? The sun will cross the celestial equator – a line directly above Earth’s equator – at 
3:06 UTC on March 20, 2024 (10:06 p.m. CDT on March 19).

No matter where you are on Earth, the equinox brings us a number of seasonal effects, noticeable to nature lovers around the globe.

Equal day and night on the equinox?

At the equinox, Earth’s two hemispheres are receiving the sun’s rays equally. Night and day are often said to be equal in length. In fact, the word equinox comes from the Latin aequus (equal) and nox (night). For our ancestors, whose timekeeping was less precise than ours, day and night likely did seem equal. But today we know it’s not exactly so.

Fastest sunsets at the equinoxes

The fastest sunsets and sunrises of the year happen at the equinoxes. We’re talking here about the length of time it takes for the whole sun to sink below the horizon.

More

March equinox 2024: All you need to know (earthsky.org)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Inflation is probably the most important single factor in that vicious circle wherein one kind of government action makes more and more government control necessary. For this reason all those who wish to stop the drift toward increasing government control should concentrate their effort on monetary policy.

Friedrich August von Hayek.