AI, How To Lose Money Trading. More Dodgy Dealing In D.C.

Baltic Dry Index. 2991 +159   Brent Crude 101.86

Spot Gold  4696                           Spot Silver 78.19

US 2 Year Yield 3.87 +0.06

US Federal Debt. 39.210 trillion

US GDP 32.095 trillion.

There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.

John Kenneth Galbraith (Plus AI trading programs.)

More dodgy betting on the war in the District of Crooks, who’d have thought it? War, it turns out, is very profitable for a few in America.

In the stock casinos, the GREAT AI Bubble, bubbles on. What could possibly go wrong?

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tops 62,000 for the first time as Asia markets look past Trump’s Iran threats

Published Wed, May 6 2026 7:45 PM EDT

Japan stocks rose more than 5% on Thursday, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 hitting 62,000 for the first time as Asia-Pacific markets rallied despite renewed tensions in the Middle East.

The broader regional advance came after President Donald Trump warned Iran would be bombed “at a much higher level” if it failed to agree to a peace deal.

The Nikkei 225 advanced 5%, led by gains in basic materials, technology and financial stocks. Shares of index heavyweight Softbank surged more than 13%.

Electronics company Ibiden was the top performer, climbing 17%, while manufacturing and metals company Mitsui Kinzoku gained 16%. Renesas Electronics also added 13%, and chemical and materials firm Tosoh Corporation soared 12%.

The Topix also advanced 2.37%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9%.

South Korea’s Kospi reversed gains, falling 0.68%, while the small-cap Kosdaq Index slid 0.56%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 1.47% while mainland China’s CSI 300 edged 0.38% higher.

Trump’s fresh threats came as reports suggested Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement to end the war.

The president in a Truth Social post said the U.S. military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”

If that happened, the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman would “allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote.

West Texas Intermediate futures for June was 0.92% higher at $95.95 per barrel as of 7:19 p.m. ET.

U.S. stock futures were little changed. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both slid about 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 35 points, or less than 0.1%.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks rose following developments in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 advanced 1.46% to 7,365.12, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.02% and ended at 25,838.94. Both indexes touched new highs and closed at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 612.34 points, or 1.24%, to close at 49,910.59.

Asia-Pacific markets today: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

SoftBank shares surge over 16% as Japan tech-fueled rally lifts Nikkei 225 to record highs

Published Wed, May 6 2026 10:40 PM EDT

Shares in Japanese tech-focused investment giant SoftBank Group soared 16.5% Thursday, amid a broader tech-fueled rally that saw Japan’s Nikkei 225 surge to record highs.

Japanese markets reopened after an extended holiday and investors rushed to catch up with a global artificial intelligence-fueled rally, sending Japanese tech names higher.

While SoftBank is on course to record its best day since 2020, if gains hold, chip-testing equipment maker Advantest rose nearly 7.8%, while semiconductor equipment supplier Tokyo Electron surged 9.2%. Chip solutions provider Renesas Electronics jumped 13.8%.

The rally came after Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite hit another record overnight, with U.S. artificial intelligence-linked stocks surging. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. rose 18.6%, Arm Holdings advanced 13% and server maker Super Micro Computer Inc. soared 24.5%.

“Japan was shut for the back end of Golden Week while global risk assets ripped, so today’s move is the Nikkei pricing in three sessions in one,” said Global X ETFs’ investment strategist Billy Leung.

“SPX hit a fresh record and Nasdaq made another all-time high while Tokyo was closed, led by semis and AI names,” Leung said, adding that Advantest and Tokyo Electron are “the most liquid Japanese expressions of that AI semi trade.”

He added that easing geopolitical concerns also helped sentiment, with oil prices falling on signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.

SoftBank’s gains were amplified by its close ties to Arm and artificial intelligence firm OpenAI. “SoftBank is effectively the listed proxy for OpenAI and Arm,” Leung said.

The move also reflected growing investor optimism around data center infrastructure demand tied to AI inference and agentic AI systems.

Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor and infrastructure at The Futurum Group, said the rally reflects growing optimism around the long-term demand outlook for AI infrastructure.

“I think it’s partly a continuation rally on the back of the strong AI-related share performance in the U.S. yesterday, as well as a reaction to AMD’s quarterly report, which has strong read-across for Arm,” Bulk said.

“CPUs are important for AI inference workloads; they handle for instance agent sandboxes, orchestration servers, database and API layers. With inference and agentic AI demand increasing, datacenter CPUs have become one of the key bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure build-out.”

Bulk pointed to AMD’s latest forecast that the total addressable market for datacenter CPUs could reach $120 billion by 2030, growing more than 35% annually.

SoftBank shares surge as Japan tech stock-fueled rally lifts Nikkei to record high

AI Models Lose Money in Trading Contests

May 6, 2026 at 11:41 PM GMT+1

Yesterday, the bad news for finance professionals was that Anthropic had turned its gaze to their patch with software that may make many on Wall Street redundant. But today, there was a bit of a reprieve. Artificial intelligence isn’t all it’s cracked up to be when it comes to replacing traders. Not yet anyway.

Across a series of contests between the world’s leading AI models, the verdict so far is unflattering. Most of the systems lose money. They trade too much. They make wildly different decisions when given identical instructions. And no one knows if these shortcomings will fade with more powerful iterations—or if they reveal something fundamental about the gap between large language models and how markets actually work. —David E. Rovella

Why AI May Not Be Wall Street-Ready: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Online sleuths are raising more red flags around suspiciously timed Iran-war oil trades

May 6, 2026, 5:24 PM BST

Oil prices have plunged on reports that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal, a development that paid off big for traders that happened to be shorting crude just ahead of the news.

Data flagged by the The Kobeissi Letter shows that nearly $1 billion of crude oil shorts were opened roughly an hour before an Axios report that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to end the war.

The Kobeissi Letter outlined its analysis in a Wednesday morning post:

"At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news.This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is "close" to a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran War.By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million."

Brent oil was down as much as 11.9%, while WTI oil dropped more than 13%. Around 10:20 a.m. Brent and WTI were down roughly 7% at $101.93 and $95.06, respectively.

The plunge reflects investor optimism that the war is nearing an end on the reported agreement. It would also be a windfall for anyone betting on the downward move in crude.

Former JPMorgan quant head Marko Kolanovic reacted to oil price moves on the Axios report, saying "Who knows what happens next in blatantly manipulated markets."

Eric Nuttall, a partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, commented on the analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, saying, "We continue to encourage energy investors to focus on "the day after", as day-to-day volatility may be intentionally induced for nefarious reasons."

The trades highlighted by market watchers online are the latest example of well-timed bets tied to developments in the war. A $950 million oil trade on April 7 and a $760 million bet a week later were put on just minutes before breaking news that moved the price of crude.

Still, as has become common during the ceasfire that's held since early April, conflicting signals on the likelihood of a durable peace have emerged on Wednesday as markets positioned for an end to the war.

Market Pros Flag Well-Timed Oil Shorts Made Before the Iran Peace News - Business Insider

In other news.

Rising tensions and war-driven "demand destruction"

6 May 2026

It seemed like good news when the US Navy managed to escort two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, the Brent crude oil price didn’t rise by much, which probably counts as a success.

But it’s just as easy to cast this as bad news.

First, it’s only two ships. In normal times, there are at least a hundred transits a day.

Second, the Iranians responded with fresh missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates and said they were “just getting started”.

Third, the US said none of this was a ceasefire violation. The Trump administration evidently prefers deadlock to escalation.

This was seemingly confirmed on Wednesday morning, when Trump backed away from the scheme to escort the ship.

Normally, in a peace negotiation, patience is a virtue. But if Hormuz isn’t unblocked soon, things are going to worsen very quickly.

We’ve got by so far on a combination of oil stockpile drawdowns and alternative sources of supply. These tactics are nearing their use-by date.

What happens next? Economists call it “demand destruction”, which sounds a bit technical. The reality is that oil prices rise until we stop wanting to buy oil. Or there’s fuel rationing, which gets to the same result in a different way.

I would say, "Fasten your seatbelts," but we might not be doing much of that. The 13,000 flights that airlines have cancelled this month might be only the beginning.

If nothing changes in the Persian Gulf over the coming weeks, factories will begin curtailing production. Supermarket shelves will thin out; prices will climb.

The trouble is that in Trump’s public utterances, he offers just one alternative: restart the bombing. That isn’t likely to avoid the crunch either.

I’ve been pretty pessimistic about this conflict from the start. I really hope there’s still a way for the world to prove me wrong.

Hans van Leeuwen

Iran has hit far more US military assets than reported, satellite images show

May 6, 2026

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.

The threat of air attacks rendered some of the U.S. bases in the region too dangerous to staff at normal levels, and commanders moved most of the personnel from these sites out of the range of Iranian fire at the start of the war, officials have said.

Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, seven service members have died in strikes on U.S. facilities in the region — six in Kuwait and one in Saudi Arabia — and more than 400 troops have suffered injuries as of late April, the U.S. military said. While most of the wounded returned to duty within days, at least 12 suffered injuries that military officials classified as serious, according to U.S. officials who, among others, spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Satellite imagery of the Middle East is unusually difficult to acquire at present. Two of the largest commercial providers, Vantor and Planet, have complied with requests from the U.S. government — their biggest customer — to limit, delay or indefinitely withhold the publication of imagery of the region while the war is ongoing, making it difficult or impossible to assess Iran’s counterstrikes. Those restrictions began less than two weeks into the war.

Iranian state-affiliated news agencies, however, have from the start regularly published high-resolution satellite imagery on their social media accounts that claimed to document damage to U.S. sites.

For this examination — one of the first comprehensive public accounts of the damage to U.S. facilities in the region — The Post reviewed more than 100 high-resolution Iranian-released satellite images. The Post verified the authenticity of 109 of the those images by comparing them with lower-resolution imagery from the European Union’s satellite system, Copernicus, as well as high-resolution images from Planet where available. The Post excluded 19 Iranian images from the damage analysis because comparisons with the Copernicus imagery were inconclusive. No Iranian imagery was found to have been manipulated.

In a separate search of Planet imagery, Post reporters found 10 damaged or destroyed structures that were not documented in the imagery released by Iran. In all, The Post found 217 structures and 11 pieces of equipment that were damaged or destroyed at 15 U.S. military sites in the region.

More

Iran has hit far more US military assets than reported, satellite images show

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Wetherspoons warns on profits due to ‘substantial’ cost increases

Wed, 6 May 2026 at 8:03 am BST

The boss of pub giant JD Wetherspoon has warned it could miss profit guidance after a jump in costs.

It came as the firm, which has 794 managed pubs and 21 franchise sites, revealed slower sales growth over the latest quarter.

Chairman and founder Tim Martin said the group is among hospitality operators to have seen “substantial increases in costs” recently.

He added that this could therefore result in “profits slightly below market expectations”.

Wetherspoons previously said increases in National Insurance contributions and wages would cost the business around £60 million per year.

It is also facing an extra £1.6 million in tax this year through the Extended Producer Responsibility packaging levy.

On Wednesday, Wetherspoons also reported that like-for-like sales grew by 3.4% in the 13 weeks to April 2026, compared with a year earlier.

Like-for-like sales had risen by 4.8% over the six months to the end of January.

More

Wetherspoons warns on profits due to ‘substantial’ cost increases - Yahoo News UK

Beef prices are near record levels. The DOJ wants to know if something shady is afoot.

Four companies control more than 85% of the beef-processing market, acting attorney general notes

By Bill Peters Published: May 4, 2026 at 3:44 p.m. ET

The summer grilling season, smaller cattle herds, droughts, wildfires, processing-plant closures and other supply disruptions have helped push meat prices to record highs this year. Now, the U.S. government is investigating whether corporate consolidation is also at play.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche on Monday confirmed that the Department of Justice was looking into possible antitrust violations in the U.S. cattle and beef industries and said the government would be announcing a settlement that would “directly affect” the prices of chicken, pork, turkey and other meats this week.

The government made the announcement as consumers continue to see high prices at grocery stores and gas stations. In March, the average price of ground beef in U.S. cities was around $6.70 a pound, according to government data — just below highs seen earlier in the year.

“In the beef industry, the big four processors control over 85% of the beef-processing market,” Blanche said at a press conference on Monday.

“Multiple plant closures across the country, the current market structure and high concentration in the industry indicate anticompetitive activity,” he added.

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said those four companies — Brazilian industry giant JBS; National Beef, which is controlled by a Brazilian company; Cargill; and Tyson Foods — had gotten bigger due to consolidation. The level of concentration in the cattle-processing market, she noted, stood at just 25% in 1977. Those companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

“Together, these companies operate through dozens of subsidiary businesses, creating a landscape that leaves many of our cattle producers with limited marketing options,” Rollins said in a post on X.

She said cattle herds were at lows not seen since the 1950s and that the industry had lost more than 100,000 ranches in the last 10 years.

“For some ranchers this means less marketing opportunities, complicating an already challenging marketplace,” she added.

---- Shares of Tyson were up 4.1% on Monday, after the company topped expectations with its quarterly results and raised its adjusted operating income outlook for the year, helped by increased interest in protein-focused diets.

“Animal protein remains top of mind for consumers and continues to gain momentum as a foundational part of a healthy diet,” Tyson CEO Donnie King said during the company’s earnings call on Monday. “We are directly tied to and stand to benefit from this long-term trend.”

Beef prices were up 11.5% in the latest quarter, the company disclosed.

Beef prices are near record levels. The DOJ wants to know if something shady is afoot. - MarketWatch

Andrew Bailey raises alarm over ‘shadow bank’ risk

Private credit market has not been tested by economic downturn, warns Bank of England Governor

Published 06 May 2026 6:55am BST
Andrew Bailey has raised the alarm about a potential “shadow banking” crisis that could send shock waves through the global financial system.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which is chaired by the Bank of England Governor, warned in a new report that traditional banks, insurers and pension funds had become potentially dangerously intertwined with the $2tn (£1.4tn) private credit market, often dubbed shadow banking.

The shadow banking industry is where companies borrow from funds and private equity houses rather than banks. It has expanded rapidly in recent years as regulators around the world have tightened the rules governing mainstream banking.

However, the FSB, which works with central banks and governments around the world, warned that the private credit market had not been tested by a severe economic downturn, meaning any shock could result in unexpected consequences throughout the financial system.

John Schindler, the secretary general of the FSB, warned that private credit “could amplify stress in adverse scenarios, posing broader risks to financial stability”.

He added that it was difficult to monitor the true risks posed by the sector because data was so patchy. Mr Schindler said there were “significant data challenges preventing an accurate assessment of the total outstanding size of private credit markets and of the vulnerabilities that this sector contains.”

The warning came a day after HSBC announced a $400m hit tied to the collapse of Market Financial Solutions (MFS), a British shadow bank that collapsed amid allegations of fraud this year.

HSBC said the loss came after it backed another institution thought to have lent to MFS, highlighting how risk can spread throughout the financial system.

More

Andrew Bailey raises alarm over ‘shadow bank’ risk

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

The future is EV or maybe not.

Nissan Leaf owners sue over battery fire risk and claim recall fix still leaves cars unsafe

May 5, 2026

Remember last year’s Nissan Leaf U.S. recall that included nearly 45,000 vehicles posing a potential battery fire risk?

It looks like Canadian owners from the province of Quebec have grown tired of waiting for an effective fix from the automaker so they filed a class action suit against Nissan Canada.

Lawsuit Alleges Nissan's Promised Software Fix Cannot Solve the Problem

The lawsuit alleges Leaf EVs built for the 2019-2022 model years—the exact same years as those included in the October 2025 recall—are equipped with defective high-voltage batteries that can cause fires.

Despite the recall, the lawsuit alleges that the risk of melting components and battery fires remains. According to CarComplaints, the class action lawsuit includes “all persons in Quebec who own, purchased, lease and/or leased one or more of the Subject Vehicles, namely the 2019–2022 Nissan Leaf vehicles equipped with a Level 3 quick charging port.”

The Leaf vehicles included in the suit include 2019-2022 Nissan Leafs equipped with both the standard 40-kWh or long-range 62-kWh lithium-ion battery packs. The packs are allegedly prone to overheating and suffering short circuits, which can cause melting of the charging components, electrical damage and fires.

The problem is aggravated by Level 3 DC fast charging via the CHAdeMo connector. The class action lawsuit argues that the main problem is excessive lithium deposits on the battery’s anode, something that cannot be remedied by simple software updates Nissan has promised but is yet to deliver. Furthermore, the lawsuit alleges that Leaf high-voltage battery cells are defective and recalls issued by Nissan will not help.

Plaintiffs Calling on Nissan to Replace the Batteries or Buy Back the Cars

According to the plaintiff who sued, Nissan offers only software updates to monitor the Leaf batteries’ state of charge and possible overheating incidents. And because Level 3 fast charging aggravates the existing problem, Nissan has warned customers not to charge the vehicles with fast charging via the CHAdeMO connectors. But since Nissan Leaf customers paid for fast charging capability, they are obviously frustrated that they cannot use the feature until the vehicles get the promised software updates. The plaintiff complains that fast charging is a key reason why consumers purchase or lease the Nissan Leaf, and by not providing that, Nissan hasn’t kept its end of the bargain.

In conclusion, the class action lawsuit claims the only way to repair the affected Leaf EVs is to replace the defective high-voltage batteries, or for Nissan to buy back the vehicles. The class action lawsuit was filed in the Superior Court of Quebec of the District of Montreal Canada and is titled B.S. v Nissan Canada Inc., et al.

It’s worth noting that a similar class action suit was filed in California against Nissan North America over defects in the charging system of 2019-2022 Nissan Leaf vehicles. Brought on behalf of multiple owners and lessees of the affected Leaf EVs, the lawsuit (Proudfoot et al. v. Nissan North America, Inc) alleged that Nissan was aware of the battery defect before the vehicles were sold.

Nissan Leaf owners sue over battery fire risk and claim recall fix still leaves cars unsafe

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

Then came the second Amsterdam discovery, although the principle was known elsewhere. Bank deposits...did not need to be left idly in the bank. They could be lent. The bank then got interest. The borrower then had a deposit that he could spend. But the original deposit still stood to the credit of the original depositor. That too could be spent. Money, spendable money, had been created. Let no one rub his or her eyes. It's still being done-every day. The creation of money by a bank is as simple as this, so simple, I've often said, that the mind is slightly repelled.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Hormuz, Another TACO. Stocks The Greatest Bubble Ever! Updated.

Baltic Dry Index. 2832 +102   Brent Crude 107.96

Spot Gold  4648                           Spot Silver 76.18

US 2 Year Yield 3.93 +0.02

US Federal Debt. 39.206 trillion

US GDP 32.092 trillion.

There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of the those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Updated May 7, 2026 in the Technology section.

President Trump’s Project Freedom, launched Sunday to free roughly 400 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf unable to sail past the Strait of Hormuz, ended Tuesday. Ships “freed”, two.

Not to worry though, global stocks are bubbling like there’s no tomorrow. What’s not to like and yet?

Look away from that normalising US Treasury yield curve now.

South Korea’s Kospi tops 7,000 to hit a new high as heavyweight Samsung surges 15%

Published Tue, May 5 2026 7:47 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi hit another record Wednesday as Asia-Pacific markets saw a broad rally, tracking Wall Street gains overnight after oil prices dropped and strong earnings lifted investor sentiment.

Signaling diplomatic efforts for resolving the Middle East crisis were on track, President Donald Trump said the U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz had been paused.

“We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump said in his Truth Social post.

The U.S. military on Monday began guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday said that “two U.S. commercial ships, along with American destroyers, have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear.”

West Texas Intermediate futures for June was 1.78% lower at $100.45 per barrel as of 11:40 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures for July declined 1.70% to $108.00 per barrel.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 6.68% to scale a new peak, topping 7,000 as it builds on its more than 70% gains this year so far, after markets resumed trading following a holiday. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics reached a record high, rising over 15% to cross $1 trillion in market-cap. SK Hynix also reached an all-time high, gaining more than 10%. The small-cap Kosdaq index slipped 0.88%.

China’s CSI 300 added 1.62% as it resumed trading after Labor Day break. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.62%, while the Hang Seng Tech index gained 1.05%.

India’s Nifty 50 was 0.72% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.87%.

Japan market was closed due to a holiday.

S&P 500 futures added 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.6%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 30 points, or less than 0.1%.

During Tuesday’s regular session, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, hitting a new all-time high and closing at a record of 7,259.22. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.03%, touching a new high and notching a closing record of 25,326.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 356.35 points, or 0.73%, to end at 49,298.25.

Asia-Pacific markets today: Kospi, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Samsung crossses $1 trillion valuation as AI frenzy drives historic rally, lifting shares over 15%

Published Tue, May 5 2026 9:17 PM EDT

Shares of Samsung Electronics surged more than 15% Wednesday, pushing the chip giant’s market capitalization past the $1 trillion mark as investors continued to pile into artificial intelligence-linked stocks.

Samsung became the second Asian company to cross the $1 trillion mark, after TSMC. The company first crossed that $1 trillion market capitalization threshold on Feb. 26, according to FactSet data.

The company’s stock has breached a record high and is on course for the largest single-day gain on record, data from FactSet showed.

The rally followed Samsung Electronics’ record first-quarter earnings last week. Operating profit surged more than eightfold to 57.2 trillion won, while revenue climbed to a record 133.9 trillion Korean won.

Samsung’s first-quarter operating profit also topped its full-year 2025 profit of 43.6 trillion won.

The gains also followed a Bloomberg report that Apple has held exploratory talks with Samsung and Intel to produce chips for Apple devices in the U.S., potentially diversifying beyond longtime supplier TSMC.

Shares of South Korean chip behemoth SK Hynix also jumped more than 10%, helping push the benchmark index Kospi more than 5% to top 7,000 for the first time.

Sales of high-bandwidth memory, or HBM chips, have boosted Samsung’s profitability, but the company continues to face intense competition after losing its early lead in the HBM market to rival SK Hynix.

Samsung has been working to narrow the gap with SK Hynix in the fast-growing AI memory segment. In February, the company said it had become the world’s first firm to begin mass production of HBM4 chips and start deliveries to undisclosed customers.

HBM4 represents the sixth and latest generation of high-bandwidth memory technology. The chips are expected to play a key role in Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin AI architecture, which aims to power advanced AI workloads in data centers.

Analysts said the sharp rally in Samsung Electronics has been driven by booming AI-related memory demand, tightening supply conditions and improving competitiveness in high-bandwidth memory chips.

“There is a tremendous shortage in DRAM and NAND memory chips due to torrid AI demand, which is very memory hungry due to AI’s high bandwidth and storage needs,” said Morningstar’s technology equity analyst Yu Jing Jie.

DRAM chips are fast, volatile memory chips that temporarily store data while processors actively use it, while NAND chips are slower, non-volatile storage chips that retain data even when devices are powered off.

While memory makers are scrambling to expand production, Yu also noted that new semiconductor capacity typically takes two to three years to come online, meaning supply is likely to remain constrained in the near term. That has fueled expectations for stronger earnings growth and margins over the next one to two years.

More

Samsung crossses $1 trillion valuation as AI frenzy drives historic rally, lifting shares over 15%

Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress

Published Tue, May 5 2026 7:06 PM EDT

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he is pausing “Project Freedom,” the U.S. military’s effort to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, one day after the operation began.

Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the decision was based in part on “the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement” with Iran.

Project Freedom “will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump wrote.

Stock futures rose following Trump’s announcement, which raised hopes for a peace agreement that would end the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and reopen the economically vital strait.

It also represented a surprising about-face from the Trump administration, which just hours earlier had framed Project Freedom as a matter of life or death for thousands of civilian sailors.

The Trump administration has said that nearly 23,000 sailors on vessels representing 87 countries have been stranded in the Persian Gulf because of Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the White House Tuesday afternoon that the goal of Project Freedom is to “rescue” those sailors, who have been “left for dead” by the Iranian regime.

“Nations from around the world, the overwhelming majority of whom are not even engaged in any military hostilities, are now at risk, not just of losing their cargo, but the lives of their own citizens because of this blockade,” Rubio said.

“They’re sitting ducks. They’re isolated, they’re starving, they’re vulnerable, and at least 10 sailors have already died as a result” of Iran’s blockade, he said.

Trump announced Project Freedom on Sunday evening, saying the U.S. has assured countries whose vessels are stuck due to the war that it will “guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways.”

U.S. Central Command said Sunday evening that the military would deploy “guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members” to support the operation.

Defense and geopolitical experts told CNBC earlier Tuesday they were skeptical that Project Freedom would achieve its goals.

Iran, meanwhile, had responded to the U.S. military moves with renewed hostility, putting further strain on an already shaky ceasefire with the U.S.

The United Arab Emirates said Monday it was attacked with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones coming from Iran, resulting in three injuries.

More

Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress

The World: Can Trump strong-arm Iran?

May 6, 2026

Good morning, world. President Trump clearly wants to end the war in Iran. First, he tried scare tactics. But his ultimatums proved flexible and his threats to wipe out a civilization empty (at least so far). Now he’s trying to inflict financial pain on the Iranian leadership. But his blockade isn’t faring much better. And last night, Trump paused the U.S. operation to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz after just one day.

Trump’s inability to force the Islamic republic to do what he wants, from opening the strait to giving up its nuclear stockpile, points to a larger truth: Maybe America doesn’t understand Iran. Today my colleague Steven Erlanger, our chief diplomatic correspondent, writes about why there may be no easy way to end this war.

The World: Can Trump strong-arm Iran?

‘Misplaced euphoria’: Markets are sleepwalking into a recession amid Iran war oil price shock

Published Mon, May 4 2026 8:50 AM EDT

Global economies could be “sleepwalking” into a “big recession”, as investors continue to underplay the impact of the oil price shock, Amrita Sen, founder and director, market intelligence at Energy Aspect, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time intraday high last week, with the broad market index touching 7,230.12 on May 1. That’s despite a surge in the cost of energy caused by the war in the Middle East — with oil prices soaring more than 50% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on Feb. 28.

“This has been the biggest conundrum for us — if anything, we think oil should be higher and the equity market should be a lot, lot weaker,” Sen said.

“I think we’re sleepwalking into potentially a pretty big recession.”

Sen said there is an “extremely misplaced euphoria” among many investors, who she believes are continuing to dismiss the ongoing energy squeeze as an issue affecting mainly Asian economies.

OPEC has pledged to ramp up its oil production, though Sen cautioned that this increase remains largely symbolic and falls short of what is needed to replace lost supply.

‘Massive energy crisis’

“The story is really when Hormuz reopens, and at what capacity and what pace it reopens,” she noted. “If you assume that the Strait remains disrupted for a longer period of time, you are saying that we all need to go back to 2013 demand levels, about 10 million barrels per day less… we’ve added a billion more people. I think that’s the challenge we have right now — we need oil prices to go up so that we can get the demand reduction.”

Looking ahead, Sen said she expects $80-90 a barrel to be the new floor going forward, adding that higher-for-longer prices will reverberate across commodity markets, highlighting the impact on LNG, chemicals and fertilizers, among other assets.

“Just wait for food prices to start going up because of what’s going on; the lack of urea transport; and natural gas prices, or natural gas being curtailed in the fertilizer sector,” she said.  

“This is a massive, massive energy crisis. I have been equally amazed at how the equity market is completely dismissing it, talking about how great Q1 results are. They are not going to be great nearly to the same extent in Q2.”

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Stock market 'euphoria' masks looming Iran war recession risk

California braces for uncertainty as last shipment of Persian Gulf oil arrives in Long Beach

Sun, May 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM GMT+1

The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

The New Corolla loaded up in Iraq on Feb. 24 — just days before U.S. and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran, plunging the region into turmoil and sparking a double blockade of commercial shipping.

In two weeks, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker will have fully unloaded at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and departed again for distant waters. After that, California must figure out how to replace some 200,000 barrels of oil a day that will no longer be arriving from the Persian Gulf.

California's own supply of crude oil has been declining since the 1980s, due to aging fields and a geology that makes drilling particularly costly. The state's gasoline refining capacity is also falling off, increasing reliance on imports and highlighting California's status as an isolated energy island without gas pipelines to bring in supply from other states.

Now, with the end of the Middle East conflict nowhere in sight and the average cost of California gasoline topping $6 per gallon, some lawmakers are warning of potential oil and gas shortages.

So far during the Iran war, oil deliveries to California have remained relatively steady. The state imports about 75% of its oil from foreign countries and Alaska. Last year it brought in a mix from Brazil, Iraq, Guyana, Canada, Ecuador, Argentina and Saudi Arabia as its top international suppliers, with about 30% coming from the Middle East.

In March and April, that mix didn't change much, with California receiving about 21% and 14% of its foreign oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, respectively, according to the data analytics firm Kpler.

Shipments that left before Iran blocked off the Strait of Hormuz in late February have continued to arrive on a one-to-two-month lag time, about the same time it takes for a tanker to make the voyage. But if the strait remains closed through May, “all bets are off,” said Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking.

"Refineries have to source from elsewhere, and they are scrambling to find where to get that oil," said Susan Bell, a senior vice president at the consulting firm Rystad Energy. "They don't have very many options."

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California braces for uncertainty as last shipment of Persian Gulf oil arrives in Long Beach

In other news.

HSBC takes $400 million hit from private-credit alleged fraud

5 May 2026

HSBC set aside $400 million relating to an alleged fraud in private markets in the U.K., marring its quarterly results. Shares of the bank fell more than 5% in London.

HSBC gave few details about the incident in its results Tuesday, beyond saying the provision reflected a “fraud-related, secondary, securitisation exposure with a financial sponsor in the U.K.”

On calls with journalists and analysts, Chief Financial Officer Pam Kaur said HSBC had lent to a private-equity company, which in turn had exposure to underlying private-credit assets that had been securitized—i.e., sliced up and parceled into securities for investors to trade.

“We regard this charge as idiosyncratic,” Kaur said. “We have completed a review of the highest areas of risk in our portfolio and haven’t identified any comparable fraud concerns.”

Kaur declined to name the company involved in the alleged fraud. Kaur said HSBC had relied on due diligence by private-equity companies, and would look to toughen up its procedures to prevent a repeat.

The private-credit industry has grown rapidly in recent years, but a series of bankruptcies and alleged frauds over the past year have raised concerns about the quality of loans made by such lenders.

Some of the private-credit blowups have stung banks, raising concerns among investors and regulators about links between private-credit funds and the banking industry.

After the 2008-09 financial crisis, tougher regulations encouraged banks to cut back on some riskier forms of lending. Wall Street investors, often funded by insurers, rushed to fill the gap. The business came to be known as private credit. HSBC, like many other large banks, makes loans to the private-credit industry.

HSBC’s first-quarter net profit was largely flat as higher credit charges amid the Middle East conflict offset the strength in its Hong Kong, U.K. and wealth businesses.

The London-based bank said Tuesday that it booked $1.3 billion in expected credit losses and other impairment charges in the first quarter, partly due to a roughly $300 million increase in allowances to reflect heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook following the onset of the war.

The bank, which makes much of its profit in Asia, has significant operations in Middle Eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

HSBC said it would continue to target a return on tangible equity—a key profitability measure for banks—of 17% or better over the next three years, excluding notable items.

On Monday, the lender agreed to sell its retail-banking business in Indonesia to Singapore’s Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. HSBC said strategic reviews remain under way for its retail businesses in Australia and Egypt and its life-insurance business in Singapore.

Chief Executive Georges Elhedery has been pushing the bank to focus on its strengths: retail banking in the U.K. and Hong Kong, acting as a bridge for large companies to global markets, and helping wealthy clients with their finances.

Last week, rival Standard Chartered disclosed $190 million in precautionary credit charges related to the Middle East conflict.

HSBC said Tuesday that net profit rose 0.1% from a year earlier to $6.94 billion for the three months ended March. That missed the $7.02 billion estimate in a poll of analysts by data provider Visible Alpha.

HSBC takes $400 million hit from private-credit alleged fraud

The nuclear option: Atomic energy could offer Europe hope, say analysts — but it won’t be easy

Published Mon, May 4 2026 1:00 AM EDT

Hefty upfront costs, issues disposing of radiation and waste, and memories of terrible accidents have all contributed to Europe’s reluctance to embrace nuclear energy in recent decades.

But the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran war has exposed the continent’s vulnerability to disrupted energy imports – and nuclear may offer Europe a lifeline.

IEA chief Fatih Birol previously told CNBC that nuclear power would get a “boost” from the supply crisis and urged governments to bolster their resilience with alternative energy sources.

Nuclear energy produces significantly fewer emissions than fossil fuels, plants take up minimal space on the landscape, and reactors are extremely reliable in all weather conditions.

“I think nuclear has to play a big role in solving this problem for Europe,” Chris Seiple, vice chairman of Wood Mackenzie’s power and renewables division, told CNBC.

The U.S., China and France are all better placed to deal with the supply shock caused by the war, in part because they are the three largest producers of nuclear energy worldwide. 

“If you don’t have a natural energy supply, then your energy costs are going to be higher to import it from somewhere, or you’re going to have to build some degree of nuclear,” Michael Browne, global investment strategist at Franklin Templeton, told CNBC.

“It’s expensive but very efficient, as France has shown. French energy prices are significantly lower than German prices.”

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Can nuclear energy solve Europe’s energy crisis? Here's why it won’t be easy

All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.

Friedrich August von Hayek

Australia hikes rates again and warns inflation will stay higher for longer

Published Tue, May 5 2026 12:33 AM EDT

Australia’s central bank on Tuesday raised its policy rate to 4.35%, matching its December 2024 peak, as inflation remains elevated.

The move by the Reserve Bank of Australia was in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists and marked its third consecutive rate increase.

Eight members of the board voted for the hike, while one voted to hold rates at 4.1%.

In its statement, the RBA said inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025, with conflict in the Middle East pushing up fuel and commodity prices.

“As expected, developments in the Middle East are having an impact on inflation. Higher fuel prices are adding to inflation and there are indications that this is likely to have second-round effects on prices for goods and services more broadly,” it added.

The central bank said that inflation is likely to remain above its 2% to 3% target for some time and that the risks remain elevated.

The RBA also appeared to signal that more rate hikes were on the horizon, with its economic forecasts pencilling in a 4.7% policy rate in December 2026, 50 basis points higher than projected in early February.

Should the policy rate exceed 4.35%, it would be the highest since December 2011.

Inflation forecasts for the bank were also upgraded to 4.8% for the June quarter and 4% for the year ending 2026, up from the previous February forecast of 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively.

Economic growth for 2026 was revised down to 1.3% from 1.8%.

ANZ Bank said in a note after the meeting that the RBA’s tone was “more hawkish than we expected,” adding that there was no clear opening to a pause in June as it expected.

“That does not necessarily mean that another rate increase is a foregone conclusion but instead signals that the Board’s preference is to keep its options open,” the bank said.

Australia’s economy grew 2.6% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, its fastest pace in two years, beating expectations.

The decision follows recent inflation data showing price pressures remain persistent. Consumer prices rose 4.09% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the highest in more than two years.

In March, inflation climbed to 4.6%, the highest since Australia began publishing monthly consumer price index data in 2025.

The RBA had signaled at its March meeting that further rate increases were likely, though policymakers differed on timing.

“Developments in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, but under a wide range of possible scenarios could add to global and domestic inflation,” the RBA said after its March meeting.

The RBA will hike rates to 4.60% in the third quarter of this year, according to Abhijit Surya, Senior APAC Economist at Capital Economics.

“Given the potential for incoming inflation data to surprise to the upside of the RBA’s expectations, we think further policy tightening remains likely,” Surya added.

Australia hikes rates again and warns inflation will stay higher for longer

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Update May 7, 2026.

In recently released clearer footage, the plane missed the truck and it was the light pole that hit the truck wind shield.

Today, something different. What’s going on/wrong at United.

UAL169 Boeing 767 COLLIDES With Light Pole and Truck | Captain Steeeve

UAL169 Boeing 767 COLLIDES With Light Pole and Truck | Captain Steeeve

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

Liberty not only means that the individual has both the opportunity and the burden of choice; it also means that he must bear the consequences of his actions. Liberty and responsibility are inseparable.

Friedrich August von Hayek