Strait Talking. Stocks, It’s Over! But Is It?

Baltic Dry Index. 2484 +130     Brent Crude 95.03

Spot Gold  4830                           Spot Silver 80.66

US 2 Year Yield 3.76 unch.

US Federal Debt. 39.123 trillion

US GDP 31.330 trillion.

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

Groucho Marx

In his desperation to get the Strait of Hormuz open, and get critical supply chains working again, is President Trump folding?

Settling for a no nukes deal, that Iran had long ago abandoned back in 2003.

Wall Street and the global stock casinos clearly think so.

But what if they’re wrong? What if Iran just runs out the clock?

Wall Street Hits New Record on Peace Hopes

For markets, it seems that no new bad news means good news.

April 15, 2026 at 11:14 PM GMT+1

Tehran and Washington appear to be edging closer to a second round of talks and a ceasefire extension over the US-Israel war with the Iran. Still, Donald Trump’s decision to escalate the standoff by blockading Iranian traffic through the Strait of Hormuz risks doing even more damage to Iran’s biggest oil customers.

Pakistan’s military said a delegation from the country arrived in Iran on Wednesday as Islamabad continues to mediate the exchange of messages between the two sides. Iran sees a prolonging of the US blockade as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire,” said Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, according to state TV. Iran’s armed forces “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea” if the blockade continues, he said.

On Wall Street today, the lack of bad news from the Persian Gulf was taken as good news. Stocks extended their streak of gains, pushing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes to record highs as investors piled into equities on optimism over a ceasefire—and robust corporate earnings. —David E. Rovella

Wall Street Hits Record on Peace Bet: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close at fresh records as traders look past Iran war fears: Live updates

Updated Wed, Apr 15 2026 6:39 PM EDT

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to new all-time highs on Wednesday, building on the week’s strong gains as investors remained hopeful about the Iran war potentially ending soon.

The broad market index gained 0.80%, ending at 7,022.95. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.59% to 24,016.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 72.27 points, or 0.15%, to close at 48,463.72. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at records, with the tech-heavy index posting an 11th day win streak and the broad market benchmark notching its 10th positive session out of 11.

Stocks have been riding high this week on the possibility that a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran could materialize. The S&P 500, which fully recovered from its Iran war losses on Monday, has risen 3% this week. The Nasdaq and Dow, meanwhile, have added nearly 5% and more than 1% week to date.

“The setup coming into [the war] was that market participants had de-risked to a degree in anticipation that maybe things might get bad, and then as that seems like it’s maybe less of a likelihood, they’re needing to buy,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “People don’t want to miss out on an up market.”

President Donald Trump offered more hope to investors that the war may not last much longer, saying in an interview with Fox Business Wednesday that the Iran war is “very close to over” and claiming once again that Iran wants to “make a deal very badly.”

A second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is under discussion, a White House official told CNBC Tuesday. Nothing has been officially scheduled yet, noted the official, who asked not to be named to discuss the administration’s internal plans.

“Is there going to be a deal that will allow the Strait of Hormuz to open up and there to be less rhetoric on stopping the flow of goods? The market seems to be saying that it thinks there will be,” Martin said.

Broadcom was a key winner of Wednesday’s session, rising 4%. This comes on the heels of Meta Platforms extending its partnership with Broadcom to deploy custom chips using the chipmaker’s technology.

Stock market news for April 15, 2026

Japan’s Nikkei 225 hits record high as hopes for U.S.-Iran deal fuel broader rally in Asia stocks

Published Wed, Apr 15 2026 7:48 PM EDT

Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record Thursday amid a broader rally in Asia markets, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street as hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal grew.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.19%, paring earlier gains after hitting a record fueled by technology and consumer cyclical stocks. Daikin Industries was the top performer, after activist investor Elliott Investment Management pushed the company to improve performance and narrow its valuation gap with peers. The Topix gained 1.33%.

Stocks have rallied this week on the possibility of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. The S&P 500, which fully recovered from its Iran war losses on Monday, has risen 3% this week. The Nasdaq and Dow, meanwhile, have added around 5% and more than 1%, respectively.

The Iran war is “very close to over,” President Donald Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday, again claiming that Tehran wants to “make a deal very badly.”

A White House official told CNBC on Tuesday that a second round of negotiations between Washington and Iran is under discussion. According to the official, who asked not to be named to discuss the administration’s plans, said nothing has been officially scheduled yet.

Oil prices were volatile in Thursday trade. The West Texas Intermediate gained 0.39% at $91.65 per barrel as of 11:46 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent crude was flat at $94.96 per barrel.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.96% while the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.36% higher. India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.56% higher.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.32%. Labor data released Thursday showed that Australian employment rose 1.4% in March from a year ago, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.90%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index extended early gains and rose 1.41%.

China’s economy accelerated in the first quarter, supported by robust export growth, which helped offset tepid domestic demand, even as the growth outlook was clouded by the Iran war-fueled energy shock threatening global demand.

Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed Thursday, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter and exceeding economists’ forecast for a 4.8% growth in a Reuters poll.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded around the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 45 points, or 0.1%.

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.80%, ending at 7,022.95. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.59% to 24,016.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 72.27 points, or 0.15%, to close at 48,463.72.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at records, with the tech-heavy index posting an 11th-day win streak and the broad market benchmark notching its 10th positive session out of 11.

Asia markets rise as hopes of U.S.-Iran deal boost Wall Street benchmarks

Saudi Arabia pressures Trump to scale back war on Iran

Mohammed bin Salman wants the US president to lift quarantine of Iranian ports, say diplomats

Published 14 April 2026 9:47pm GMT+01:00

Saudi Arabia is pressing the United States to scale back its war in the Middle East, fearing Iran could retaliate by blockading the Red Sea and paralysing the kingdom’s economy.

Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, wants Donald Trump to lift his naval quarantine of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and return to negotiations, Gulf diplomats say.

The Saudi lobbying reflects concerns in Riyadh that Tehran would retaliate against the US blockade by instructing its Houthi allies in Yemen to seal the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a Red Sea chokepoint through which much of the kingdom’s oil supplies pass.

The abrupt shift by the Arab world’s lone Iran hawk – first reported by the Wall Street Journal and confirmed to The Telegraph by two Gulf officials — has emerged amid growing regional anxiety about Mr Trump’s handling of the war.

More

Saudi Arabia pressures Trump to scale back war on Iran

Beige Book Captures Initial Toll of Iran War

April 15, 2026 | 14:38

Regional economic conditions deteriorated somewhat and cost pressures intensified due to the Iran conflict, according to the Fed's regional survey of business contacts. The survey, which captured the first two weeks of the conflict, said overall activity increased at a "slight to modest pace" in the majority of districts, a mild downgrade from the prior report's "slight to moderate pace". The blame was put squarely on the Middle East conflict "as a major source of uncertainty", resulting in "many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture" on hiring and investing. Consumer spending increased, albeit slightly, with many Districts reporting "signs of consumer financial strain", now aggravated by rising fuel costs. Business expectations for the economy were marked down from "optimistic" in the prior report to "varied amid widespread uncertainty". Piling on, the New York Fed District reported continued modest declines in economic activity, a counterpoint to its release today of a survey showing improved manufacturing conditions in the region.

The one semi-bright spot in the Beige Book is that employment was reported as "steady to up slightly", a mild improvement from the previous report's description of stability only. This supports recent data that suggest the slowdown in job growth may be ending.

While the report said price growth "mostly remained moderate overall", rising energy prices were pressuring costs for transportation, plastics, and fertilizers. Moreover, "input cost pressures beyond energy-related increases were also widespread", partly due to tariff-driven increases in metal prices.

All told, the stagflation-like tone of the Beige Book will reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see posture.

Beige Book Captures Initial Toll of Iran Wa

In other news.

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble | The Economist

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble | The Economist

Here's a look at recent events

15 April 2026

• ----The US and Iran could resume talks "over the next two days", President Donald Trump has said, following the failed negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend
• The US said no ships have passed through its blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas in the first 24 hours. Tracking data, verified by the BBC, showed four Iran-linked ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz after the blockade began
• China has condemned the blockade, calling it "dangerous and irresponsible". Iran said it is a "grave violation" of its sovereignty

Trump says Iran talks could resume 'over next two days' as US says ships turned back by blockade - BBC News

Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates

Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 2:07 PM EDT Updated Tue, Apr 14 2026 2:12 PM EDT

Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.

Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in market volume year-to-date — more than the $51 billion in total prediction market volume in all of 2025.

Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, according to Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a note last week called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote.

While prediction market volumes initially jumped in 2024 around the U.S. presidential election, they eventually surpassed those levels in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts became popular.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total market volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.  

Chhugani expects increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will boost the potential market, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling more liquidity. The makeup of traded contracts is also likely to change, he said.

“We expect [the] institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” he wrote. While sports contracts make up more than 60% of trading volume today, he sees that being cut in half by 2030. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, new names are building a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all starting or have already launched their own prediction market verticals, Bank of America’s Hoover said.

Public proxies

Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the key public market proxies for the private prediction market companies, Chhugani said. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi total volume. The market is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing business, and could encourage Robinhood to develop its own exchange, the analyst said. 

While Chhugani’s long-range estimates assume the resolution of long-term regulatory risk, in the near-term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are engaged in a pitched battle. “Legal action is now pending in 14 states, plus another 4 congressional bills [are] also pending amid concerns around insider trading,” Hoover wrote. 

Some states have begun legal action against prediction markets, citing their authority to regulate sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is fighting states, claiming it has the only authority to regulate prediction markets. 

Still, Chhugani has faith that this won’t derail the multi-year outlook.

“Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” he wrote.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein says

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

US Treasury's Bessent says China has been unreliable partner by hoarding oil during war

By Andrea Shalal Wed, April 15, 2026 at 12:32 AM GMT+1

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday China had been an unreliable global partner during the Middle East war by hoarding oil supplies and limiting exports of some goods, mirroring ‌its actions with medical goods during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bessent told reporters he had spoken with Chinese officials about the ‌issue. He declined to answer a question about whether the dispute would derail U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to visit Beijing in mid-May, but said Trump and ​Chinese President Xi Jinping had a very good working relationship.

"I think the message for the visit is stability. We've had great stability in the relationship since last summer; that emanates from the top down," he said. "I think that communication is the key."

"I think the message for the visit is stability. We've had great stability in the relationship since last summer; that emanates from the top down," he said. "I think that communication is the key."

But Bessent took China to task for its actions during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has sent oil prices up by as much as 50% and triggered supply ‌chain disruptions.

"China has been an unreliable global ⁠partner three times in the past five years; once during COVID, when they hoarded healthcare products, second on rare earth," Bessent said, referring to Beijing's threat last year to curb rare earth exports.

Now it was stockpiling ⁠more oil instead of helping to ease the global demand shortage caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil, he said.

China already had a strategic petroleum reserve that was roughly the same size as that of the entire reserve held ​by ​the 32-member International Energy Agency, but it was continuing to purchase oil. "They ​continued buying, and they've been hoarding, and they have ‌cut off exports of many products," Bessent said.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said the shortages facing the global energy market were rooted in "the tense situation in the Middle East" and called for an immediate end to military operations there.

More

US Treasury's Bessent says China has been unreliable partner by hoarding oil during war

Global recession is inevitable if Strait of Hormuz stays shut, says Citadel’s Ken Griffin

Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 10:36 AM EDT Updated Tue, Apr 14 2026 12:04 PM EDT

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Tuesday that the global economy is headed toward a recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for much longer.

“Let’s assume [the strait is] shut down for the next six to 12 months — the world’s going to end up in a recession,” Griffin said on stage at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, D.C. “There’s no way to avoid that.”

As a result, the world is going to see a massive shift toward alternative fuel sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, he added. To be sure, the hedge fund leader thinks the consequences of the war would have been worse if the U.S. delayed any strikes until Iran’s military capabilities had grown.

Stocks have managed to rebound back to where they were before the U.S. first attacked Iran in February, but the optimistic sentiment among investors is contingent on the duration of the war in the Middle East. Many expect risks of an escalation in tensions between the two countries are not at all priced into the market.

Global economies especially in Asia remain vulnerable to spikes in oil prices, which remain elevated at around $100 a barrel. That’s off their highs during the conflict, but remain far above where they were before the war, at just below $70 a barrel.

Citadel's Ken Griffin: Global recession inevitable if Strait of Hormuz stays shut

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Woman forced to leap from balcony to avoid terrifying e-scooter battery fire

The London Fire Brigade said the woman was left trapped in a bedroom with 'smoke travelling in' after the bike battery caught alight at a flat complex in Lewisham, south-east London

11:41, 14 Apr 2026

A woman who was forced to vault a balcony to escape a suspected e-scooter battery fire was rushed to hospital with a "serious injury" after she plunged three storeys.

The London Fire Brigade (LFB) has issued an e-bike and e-scooter safety warning after a lithium battery ignited at a flat on Reculver Road in Lewisham, southeast London, following a "catastrophic failure" on April 12. The bike was believed to have been charging for 12 hours when it caught alight, damaging part of a hallway and coughing out smoke.

The LFB said one woman was left trapped in a bedroom with smoke travelling in, forcing her to jump down from a third-floor balcony and onto the street below in a desperate bid to escape the house fire.

The service said she was assisted by firefighters before being taken to a local hospital by attending paramedics from the London Ambulance Service (LAS) after being injured. She was treated for smoke inhalation and "serious" injuries sustained from her fall. A second occupant, a man, was led to safety by firefighters.

It is believed the fire was caused by "the catastrophic failure of an e-bike battery that was being charged in the flat’s hallway", and had been on charge for up to 12 hours.

Woman forced to leap from balcony to avoid terrifying e-scooter battery fire - The Mirror

Approx. 5 minutes.

Massive BYD Fire: How Many EVs Burned?

Massive BYD Fire: How Many EVs Burned? - YouTube

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

A strong nation, like a strong person, can afford to be gentle, firm, thoughtful, and restrained. It can afford to extend a helping hand to others. It's a weak nation, like a weak person, that must behave with bluster and boasting and rashness and other signs of insecurity.

Jimmy Carter

Blocking Iran’s Oil, Day 2, Gulf Oil Day 47! China Warns. Talks Hopium.

Baltic Dry Index. 2354 +104     Brent Crude 95.57

Spot Gold  4825                           Spot Silver 79.87

US 2 Year Yield 3.76 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 39.119 trillion

US GDP 31.328 trillion.

“Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honour those agreements and expect others not to interfere in our affairs.”

China Defence Minister Dong Jun

Having backed himself into a corner of his own making, Trump and Team Trump are desperately spinning that new talks with Iran are at hand.

But even if such talks are real, why would Iran concede now? Iran holds almost all the cards. The global economy is maybe ten days away from starting to sieze up.

A seizure that will be globally blamed on Israel and Trump’s very rude America.

Having insulted most of the world, friend and foe alike, coveted Canada and Greenland, started a war with no end plan, blockaded Iran’s oil exports, further rapidly stressing the global economy, Trump and Team Trump are facing a looming global economic disaster.

Iran has merely to run out the clock. Trump has to fold or take the global consequences. But don’t expect mainstream media to report it truthfully.

Without Trump concessions and fast, bad things start happening in the markets once reality sets in.

Iran and US Look to Arrange More Peace Talks

After a failed first round, both sides appear headed back to the table.

April 14, 2026 at 10:57 PM GMT+1

According to the Trump administration, six merchant vessels complied with instructions from American forces to turn around and re-enter an Iranian port during the first day of its promised blockade, as traders watched for signs of ships testing the restrictions.

No vessels made it through the flotilla, the US said, which is made up of more than a dozen warships and 10,000 service personnel. The administration says it is enforcing the measures in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, lying in wait for Iranian vessels that try to sail out of the Persian Gulf. That means some ships can cross the Strait of Hormuz but still not break the blockade.

As the blockade continues, Iran and the US are said to be looking to arrange a second round of peace talks following a failed first round, with Tehran mulling a pause in shipments through the strait to help ease the path toward an agreement on time and place. The stated objective is to hold more discussions before a ceasefire in the US-Israel war with Iran expires next week.

With the possibility of further peace talks, stocks continued their climb on Tuesday, putting the S&P 500 Index within sight of a fresh record. —Jordan Parker Erb

Stocks Rise on Iran War Talks Push: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Asia markets open higher as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal rise and oil prices drop

Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 7:45 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Wednesday, tracking overnight gains in U.S. stocks, as oil prices fell amid rising hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict.

A White House official told CNBC on Tuesday that a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran was under discussion. Nothing has been officially scheduled yet, the official said, who asked not to be named to discuss the administration’s internal plans.

“We’ve been called by the other side,” President Donald Trump said Monday. “They’d like to make a deal very badly, he added.

The West Texas Intermediate was down 0.34% at $90.97 per barrel as of 11:46 p.m. ET. Brent crude reversed early losses, rising 0.33% to $95.10 per barrel.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 2.84% while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 2.61%. Shares of information technology services provider Samsung SDS rose 20% following news that private equity firm KKR will buy $820 million of its convertible bonds.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.88% higher, while the Topix rose 0.60%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was flat.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index inched 0.2% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 0.80% higher. China’s finance ministry said it will issue 15.5 billion yuan-denominated treasury bonds in Hong Kong on April 22, according to Reuters.

India’s Nifty 50 was trading 1.61% higher following a holiday on Tuesday.

Futures tied to the broad market index and Nasdaq 100 futures were last trading marginally lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 17 points, or less than 0.1%.

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 1.18%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.96%, while the blue-chip Dow advanced 317.74 points, or 0.66%.

The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high of 7,002.28, reached on Jan. 28.

Asia markets today: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, CSI 300

Trump’s Hormuz blockade puts China, India in crosshairs as U.S. pressure on Iran spills over

Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 11:51 PM EDT

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only squeezing Iran but also ratcheting up pressure on two of its most consequential relationships in Asia — India and China.

With roughly 98% of Iranian oil exports bound for China, and a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping weeks away, Washington’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran risks destabilizing the fragile detente that the administration has carefully cultivated with Beijing.

India, with its complicated ties with the U.S., is increasingly finding U.S. policy at odds with its economic interests — most acutely in the energy shock now rippling through its economy.

Trump is scheduled to visit China in mid-May, and the administration signaled repeatedly in recent weeks that it wants the bilateral relationship stable enough to keep the high-stakes meeting on track.

“The Iran conflict, particularly the blockade, may upend this effort,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator.

Signs of friction are already emerging. Beijing, which had kept its stance on Trump’s blockade largely restrained, appeared to harden its tone on Tuesday. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun slammed the move as “dangerous and irresponsible,” and it will only “exacerbate tensions.”

More than a month into the war, Trump pulled a familiar playbook when he threatened to hit China with a 50% tariff if Beijing supplies weapons to Iran. Beijing pushed back, with Guo rejecting what he called “groundless smears and malicious linkage.”

“China will resolutely retaliate with countermeasures against any U.S. attempt to use weapons sales as a pretext for additional tariffs,” Guo said.

India, in the meantime, is facing a different type of pressure. Its heavy reliance on imported energy has left it increasingly exposed to the economic fallout from the conflict.

Earlier this month, India resumed purchases of Iranian oil and gas after a seven-year hiatus, having secured safe passage for its ships through the strait from Tehran, under a temporary U.S. waiver.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after a nearly 40-minute call with Trump on Tuesday, said the two leaders had a “useful exchange of views” on the Middle East conflict and that India “supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest.”

Even if Washington carves out special provisions for India, they are unlikely to cover the full scale of New Delhi’s gas needs, said Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia geopolitical risk advisor at consultancy Teneo.

As the U.S. blockade takes hold, India will likely halt its crude imports from Iran, said Chaturvedi, otherwise “we will see the relationship between New Delhi and Washington deteriorate.”

For now, “there is no incentive for India to risk its relationship with Washington any further, and bring [it] close to a point of no return,” Chaturvedi added. 

More

Iran war: Trump’s Hormuz blockade tests U.S. ties with China and India

Global economy to grind to a halt as chilling 10-day meltdown warning issued

14 April 2026

The global economy has been issued a 10-day warning as Iran's and US's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz could bring global trade close to a halt.

Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago, said he believes the economic consequences of the war are about to expand far beyond the price of oil-and he says the effects will be felt in days, Business Insider reported.

"Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical good. Not just higher prices - Shortages. Markets are not ready for this," he said.

Quoted by Business insider, he said: "Once inventories run down, this stops being about expensive inputs. It becomes about missing inputs. Factories don't slow because costs rise. They stop because materials don't arrive."

He also added that America's energy independence "won't spare the US economy from more pain to come, echoing other commentators who have said recently that the US isn't isolated from the disruptions", the same outlet reported.

Business Insider also spoke to Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Private Bank who also said that the US's energy independence "won't shield the US from energy shocks," the Insider wrote.

Cembalest, quoted by the same publication, said: "When supply chains seize, the shock transmits via trade reductions," Pape added. "This is the real shift: prices no longer determine outcomes. Access does. By the time shortages show up in headlines, it's already too late. That's how these shocks work."

More

Global economy to grind to a halt as chilling 10-day meltdown warning issued

In other news, about those Gulf blockades. First there was one blockade then another came along. Approx. 16 minutes.

Strait of Hormuz and Dueling Blockades - The United States and Iran Block Access to the Persian Gulf

Strait of Hormuz and Dueling Blockades - The United States and Iran Block Access to the Persian Gulf

Don't interfere: China fires warning shot at US over Hormuz blockade

13 April 2026

A senior Chinese official has warned the United States against imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and cautioned it not to interfere in China's bilateral relations with Iran.

Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun's warning coincided with the start of the US naval blockade at 7:30 pm IST on Monday.

"We have trade and energy agreements with Iran; we expect others not to interfere in our affairs," said Jun, adding that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for China.

The waterway is extremely crucial for Beijing as it supplies nearly 40 per cent of its oil and at least 30 per cent of its LNG needs. Hence, China has been pushing for a ceasefire to secure the critical waterway in the Gulf.

China's Foreign Ministry has also said that "maintaining the waterway's safety, stability and unimpeded passage serves the common interests of the international community."

"The root cause of disruptions to navigation through the strait lies in the conflict involving Iran, and the way to resolve this issue is to achieve a ceasefire and end hostilities as soon as possible," SCMP quoted spokesperson Guo Jiakun as saying on Monday.

He also added that China is ready to play a positive and constructive role in ending the conflict in the Middle East.

More

Don't interfere: China fires warning shot at US over Hormuz blockade

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

Surcharges Are Suddenly Everywhere—And Grumpy Americans Are Paying Up

The add-ons were a feature during Covid and are once again sneaking their way onto bills. ‘I feel like I need to be my own detective.’

April 12, 2026 8:00 pm ET

An extra 3% for paying with a credit card. A 5% involuntary contribution to a restaurant’s employee wellness fund. $25 a month in addition to rent for trash collection.  

Consumers already weary of rising inflation are now contending with a new crop of costs that are hidden in plain sight. New fees or surcharges are popping up everywhere as companies search for ways to recoup their own rising costs while blaming outside pressures.

In recent weeks, package-delivery companies and airlines have announced new or higher fees, citing increasing fuel prices. Economists expect more to follow unless oil prices rapidly fall.

Surcharges increase pressure on consumers, whose spending drives the economy. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers reported its lowest-ever sentiment reading, beating out the 2008 recession and the pandemic, pointing to Americans’ increasing concerns over rising prices.

Yet there is a simple reason why companies like these types of fees, which often don’t show up until a customer is already checking out: They work. 

A JD Power study released in 2025 found that 34% of small businesses were adding credit-card surcharges. A fifth of restaurant operators, meanwhile, now add fees or surcharges to customer checks, according to a 2025 report from the National Restaurant Association, up from 16% in 2022.

“Consumers tend to pay less attention to surcharges than to base prices,” said Vicki Morwitz, a marketing professor at Columbia University.

Researchers call this phenomenon a “lock-in effect.” By the time a surcharge appears at the end of a transaction, consumers have already committed to the purchase and are far less likely to abandon it than if they had seen the full price from the start. That makes them mad. But it doesn’t cause them to change their behavior.  

---- How much a surcharge irritates consumers depends largely on where it appears in a transaction. Fees disclosed upfront and included in an initial purchase price are generally better-received than those that show up only at checkout, a practice known as drip pricing.

The Federal Trade Commission banned drip pricing in short-term lodging and live-event ticketing in 2025, citing research showing that consumers were manipulated by low initial prices even when the full cost was eventually disclosed.

Companies sometimes prefer surcharges to straight price increases because they shift blame to an external force. When airlines or shipping companies label a fee a “fuel surcharge” they are pointing at a circumstance outside of their control rather than appearing to pad their margins, said Rebecca Hamilton, a marketing professor at Georgetown University. 

---- Not everyone is convinced the current wave is as justified—or as temporary—as companies claim. 

Corey Andrews, 32, views the fees as a one-way street.

“If jet fuel goes back down, the baggage fees won’t,” he said, referring to nearly every major U.S. carrier’s recent decision to raise prices for checked baggage. Andrews, a laid-off market strategist in Denver, tries to avoid fees in his day-to-day life. He has at times not returned to restaurants that pass wellness service charges on to customers, and he avoids fee-heavy food-delivery apps. He waits until he has multiple items to buy from a retailer to avoid paying for shipping, and signs up for credit cards with travel-status points that make checked baggage free.

“I consider myself a savvy consumer,” Andrews said. “But when everything goes up, you run out of levers.” 

More

Surcharges Are Suddenly Everywhere—And Grumpy Americans Are Paying Up - WSJ

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

This new chip could slash data center energy waste

Date: April 10, 2026

Source: University of California - San Diego

Summary: A new chip design from UC San Diego could make data centers far more energy-efficient by rethinking how power is converted for GPUs. By combining vibrating piezoelectric components with a clever circuit layout, the system overcomes limitations of traditional designs. The prototype achieved impressive efficiency and delivered much more power than previous attempts. Though not ready for widespread use yet, it points to a promising future for high-performance computing.

As data centers consume more energy to support growing digital demands, engineers at the University of California San Diego have introduced a new chip design that could make powering graphics processing units (GPUs) more efficient. The innovation focuses on a key function in electronics: converting high voltages into the lower levels required by computing hardware. In laboratory testing, a prototype chip successfully performed this type of voltage conversion with high efficiency under conditions similar to those found in modern data centers.

The findings, published in Nature Communications, suggest the potential for smaller and more energy-efficient systems in advanced computing environments.

Rethinking DC-DC Converters for Modern Electronics

At the center of the new design is an improved version of a widely used component known as a DC-DC step-down converter. These converters are found in nearly all electronic devices and serve as a critical link between power sources and sensitive circuits. Their job is to take a high incoming voltage and reduce it to the exact level needed for safe operation.

In data centers, electricity is often distributed at 48 volts, while GPU processors typically require much lower voltages, usually between 1 and 5 volts. Efficiently managing this large voltage drop has become increasingly challenging as computing systems grow more powerful and compact.

Limits of Traditional Power Conversion Technology

More

This new chip could slash data center energy waste | ScienceDaily

Journal Reference:

Jae-Young Ko, Wen-Chin B. Liu, Patrick P. Mercier. A hybrid piezoelectric resonator-based DC-DC converter. Nature Communications, 2026; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-70494-0

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

“Contrariwise,' continued Trump, 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.”

With apologies to Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland / Through the Looking-Glass