Tuesday, 10 March 2026

War Week Two. War To End? An Oil Reserve Release?

Baltic Dry Index. 2066 +56     Brent Crude 92.62

Spot Gold  5177                          Spot Silver 89.25

US 2 Year Yield 3.56 unch.

US Federal Debt. 38.863 trillion

US GDP 31.222 trillion.

The good Lord didn't see fit to put oil and gas only where there are democratically elected regimes friendly to the United States. Occasionally we have to operate in places where, all things considered, one would not normally choose to go. But, we go where the business is.

Dick Cheney

Was that it? Did Monday’s surge in crude oil prices just cause President Trump to blink in his unnecessary, war on the Persian Gulf oil supply?

Backed into a corner of his own making, with US recession odds rapidly rising, hopefully so.

Certainly, markets, Bloomberg and other mainstream media seem to think so. But with an erratic US President who seems to change his mind every few hours, we’ll just have to see what tomorrow brings.

But with massive volatility in the stock casinos and oil markets, where are the losses piling up?

Oil Falls, Stocks Rise as Trump Changes Tune on War

After markets dived and oil neared $120 a barrel, Trump said the war with Iran might be over soon.

March 9, 2026 at 10:19 PM GMT

With markets diving and oil up around $120 a barrel to start the week, Donald Trump on Monday changed his tune about a war that—just days ago—he and his aides had said was just getting started, with the biggest strikes yet to come.

Having started the war along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president today appeared to be walking back threats to bomb other regions of Iran, as he threatened Saturday. Instead, the Republican signaled that the war could be ending soon, saying the campaign was now ahead of schedule. It was also disclosed Monday that Trump had spoken with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin about the war, their first call of the year.

Trump’s nod toward de-escalation was significantly different from what he wrote in the early hours of Saturday morning. In a social media post, Trump, 79, said the US will consider striking areas and groups of people in Iran that were not previously considered targets. “Today Iran will be hit very hard!” Trump said as the US and Israel were bombarding Tehran and other cities over the weekend. The attacks will continue, Trump wrote, “until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse!”

The news that Trump might instead end US hostilities sent a predictable wave of relief across markets, with stocks closing up and oil down to around $92 a barrel. Here’s your markets wrapDavid E. Rovella

Oil Drops, Stocks Rise as Trump Changes Tune on War: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Asia markets rebound as oil plunges after Trump signals Iran war might end ‘soon’

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 7:49 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi opened more than 5% higher Tuesday, leading a rebound in the region, after oil prices fell and Wall Street bounced back as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the conflict with Iran could be nearing its end.

Oil prices fell over 10% after Trump said he was considering seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important chokepoint in world for the crude market. Trump also told a CBS News reporter, who shared the comments in a post on X, that “the war is very complete, pretty much.”

International Brent crude was down 10% at $89.03 per barrel at 9.10 p.m. ET Monday. U.S. crude oil fell more than 9% to $86.05 per barrel. The declines came after oil surged past $100 on Monday.

The declines came after oil surged past $100.

“With 20% of world oil supply stopped, we have the largest interruption ever,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, in reference to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The biggest disruption before the current war was during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, the energy consulting firm told clients in a Sunday note. At that time, roughly 10% of global oil supply was disrupted.

Other Asia stock indexes also gained. The small-cap Kosdaq added over 4%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.35% in early trade.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.66%, while the Topix gained 1.3%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.56%, while the CSI 300 gained 0.9%.

Travel-related stocks also rebounded. Hong Kong-listed shares of Air China rose nearly 3%, while China Eastern Airlines added 2.9%. China Southern Airlines gained 2.85%. Singapore Airlines rose 1.54%.

Overnight in U.S. stocks advanced. The S&P 500 rose 0.83% to close at 6,795.99, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 239.25 points, or 0.5%, and ended at 47,740.80. The blue-chip index is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.38% and settled at 22,695.95.

Those moves mark an impressive turnaround from the losses seen earlier in the day. The Dow was down nearly 900 points at its session low, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had dropped as much as 1.5% each.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

G7 energy ministers to meet Tuesday morning to discuss release of oil reserves, sources say

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 12:33 PM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 2:01 PM EDT

Energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations will hold a virtual meeting Tuesday morning to discuss a possible release of oil reserves to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, sources told CNBC.

G7 finance ministers met Monday to discuss a release of reserves but did not make a decision. The G7 members are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The talks between the G7 have been “positive,” the sources said. Any coordinated action on releasing reserves would occur after the energy ministers’ meeting, they said.

The U.S. believes a joint release of 300 million to 400 million barrels, representing 25% to 30% of the 1.2 billion barrels in the reserve, would be appropriate, sources told CNBC.

“We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release,” the G7 finance ministers said after their Monday meeting.

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel at their highs as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to threats from Iran. It is unclear when the strait may reopen again to traffic.

Prices pulled back Monday on the expectation that a release of oil reserves will occur. U.S. crude was last trading around $95 per barrel while global benchmark Brent was just under $100.

The closure of the strait has triggered the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to analysis from consulting firm Rapidan. About 20% of the world’s oil consumption is exported through the narrow waterway.

Unlike past shocks, there is no spare capacity to address the disruption because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are cut off from the global oil market due to the strait’s closure, Rapidan analysts said.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not sufficient to offset the supply bottled into the Persian Gulf, the analysts said. The U.S. reserve currently has 415 million barrels, about 58% of its total authorized capacity of 714 million barrels, according to the 
Department of Energy.

Member states of the International Energy Agency will come under pressure to release their strategic stocks because this is “the only remaining supply response option,” the Rapidan analysts said.

G7 energy ministers to meet Tuesday to discuss release of oil reserves: Sources

Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon,’ predicts lower oil prices

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 3:29 PM EDT

President Donald Trump at a press conference on Monday said the war against Iran will end “very soon,” and also said that oil prices will drop.

Trump’s rosy prediction came after a weekend that saw the price of oil skyrocket to above $100 per barrel, roiling global financial markets.

“We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective,” Trump said nine days after launching the war on Iran with Israel on Feb. 28.

Trump, who with his deputies has offered shifting explanations of what the war’s objective is, did not on Monday detail his end game, instead touting military successes.

“We’ve wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely,” the president said at his Trump National Doral club near Miami, where he touted the destruction of more than 50 Iranian naval ships, and decimation of its air force and anti-aircraft defenses.

“They have no leadership. It’s all been blown up.”

Asked if the war would end this week, Trump said, “No,” but added, “Very soon.” He proceeded to threaten further military action if he deems it necessary and said the U.S. has not yet hit some of Iran’s most sensitive targets, including its electricity infrastructure.

Earlier Monday, an Iranian official suggested that any oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for crude oil shipments, risked attack by Iran. Only a handful of commercial vessels are moving through the Strait, said Matt Smith, oil analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.

Despite that threat, Trump said oil supplies will be more secure for the world in the long run because of the war and threatened to hit Iran even harder if it withholds crude from markets. While most of the oil that moves through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asia, the U.S. depends on a global supply that is heavy on imports from Asia.

“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Trump said.

He also said that the war would be over when Iran no longer had the capacity to use weapons against the U.S., Israel and other allies for a long time.

Asked by a reporter to explain the difference between his prediction of a quick end to the war and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent comment that the war is just beginning, Trump said both could be true.

“It’s the beginning of building a new country,” Trump said. He has pledged to keep the U.S. out of another lengthy entanglement in the Middle East.

Trump said he is “disappointed” in Iran’s choice of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as the country’s supreme leader. But, when asked at the press conference, he declined to say he would seek to assassinate him.

Trump earlier Monday spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who reportedly shared proposals about the U.S. quickly ending the war.

At his press conference, Trump said Putin “was very impressed with what he saw” the U.S. do in Iran.

“This is an excursion a lot of other people wouldn’t have done,” Trump said. “This was a military success, the likes of which people haven’t seen.”

Trump says Iran war will end 'very soon'

Oil extends slide as investors assess Trump comments on Iran war, Strait of Hormuz

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 9:38 PM EDT

Oil prices plunged as much as 10% Tuesday before paring losses, as investors assessed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and oil flows via the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude was down around 4.3% at $94.62 per barrel as of 11.45 p.m. ET Monday. U.S. crude oil fell 3.8% to about $91 per barrel. The declines come after oil surged past $100 on Monday.

Trump who had signaled Monday that the conflict with Iran could end soon, sending oil prices lower, warned later in the day that Tehran would be hit “twenty times harder” if it attempted to halt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social Monday stateside.

Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait is a vital transit route for global energy markets. Roughly 13 million barrels passed through the waterway in 2025, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne oil flows, according to Kpler.

It connects major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

“This is a gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully, it is a gesture that will be greatly appreciated,” Trump said in his post.

The comments come as a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned on Monday that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz “must be very careful.”

----At a press conference on Monday Trump also said the war against Iran will end “very soon,” and oil prices will drop.

Trump comments have soothed nerves on the energy supply shock, and the disruption to oil flows.

“I think there’s a lot of optimism in the market,” said Bob McNally, president at Rapidan Energy Group. “We saw that today with the collapse in oil prices on what we used to call verbal intervention from the President.”

McNally said the market is still struggling to process the scale of the disruption, noting that for decades traders assumed no country would be allowed to shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

The fact that it has happened at all is “completely calamitous and unexpected,” McNally said, pointing that that even during the tensions of the 1980s the waterway was never fully closed. 

For now, markets appear to be betting the situation cannot last long and that navigation through the Strait will ultimately be restored, he added.

While Trump’s comments have lifted markets, Lipow Oil Associates’ President Andy Lipow said it was too early to draw concrete conclusions.

More

Oil extends slide as investors assess Trump comments on Iran war

Why China can withstand oil’s surge past $100 more easily than other countries

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 3:06 AM EDT

BEIJING — Surging oil prices following the Iran war are expected to impact China less than in past years as the country has built large crude stockpiles and diversified its energy sources, including renewables.

As oil prices climbed past $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, OCBC analysts said China may be “less sensitive to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz than many of its Asian peers.”

“China has accumulated one of the world’s largest strategic and commercial crude reserves,” the analysts said, adding that its “rapid transition toward electric vehicles and renewable energy provides an additional structural hedge.”

China held an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude stockpiles as of January.

That’s about 3 to 4 months of reserves, which will delay the economic impact, Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

“China has taken the last 20 years to reduce some of its dependence on maritime oil flows,” Doshi said, noting that new overland oil pipelines and some diversification to renewables mean the country now only relies on the Strait of Hormuz for about 40% to 50% of its seaborne oil imports.

By 2030, China aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 25%, up from 21.7% in 2025.

The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and global shipping routes. It’s a narrow passage with Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. About 31% of the world’s seaborne oil flows passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, or around 13 million barrels a day of crude, according to Kpler.

However, oil shipments through the strait account for only 6.6% of China’s overall energy consumption, according to Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu.

Natural gas imports through the route account for another 0.6%, he said.

The shift reflects two decades of strategic transition, giving China a unique position in global energy markets.

The U.S. is the world’s largest consumer of oil, followed by China and India, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which was founded in 1960 to coordinate global oil supply.

But China is the largest crude importer, buying nearly twice as much as the U.S., while India ranks third, OPEC data showed.

Of the three, India is the most dependent on petroleum imports, accounting for one-fourth of its total consumption, according to CNBC’s analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data for 2023.

China was lower at 14%, while the U.S. produced most of its petroleum needs, according to the 2023 data, which includes “other liquids” in the petroleum category.

More

Why China can withstand oil's surge more easily than other countries

In other news, though the US media love to cover the gasoline price, it’s the price of diesel that’s more important in driving US inflation.

U.S. Gasoline Prices, Rising Again, Are Now Up 17% Since Conflict Started

Interruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, source of much of the world’s energy, are trickling down to what American drivers pay when they fill up.

March 9, 2026Updated 6:36 a.m. ET

The price of gasoline in the United States jumped again on Monday as the war in the Middle East entered its 10th day.

The average price of U.S. gasoline reached $3.48 a gallon, according to data from the AAA motor club. That is a nearly 17 percent increase since the first U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. Gas hasn’t been at these levels since 2024.

The price of oil jumped above $100 on Monday after attacks intensified, and Iran said it was firing more missiles toward Israel in response to expanding U.S.-Israeli attacks.

The suddenly rising energy costs — everything from jet fuel to diesel for trucks and tractors is more expensive — are rooted in the supply of crude oil coming from the Persian Gulf. The tankers that normally carry oil out of the region are not sailing, cutting the world off from about one-fifth of its oil supply.

There are already big variations in how much drivers pay. Though oil prices make up the largest share of the cost of gasoline — about 60 percent — taxes, refining margins, and distribution costs can raise prices further. Drivers in California, for example, paid an average of $5.20 a gallon on Saturday, the highest in the country, while those in Kansas paid $2.92, the lowest.

Gasoline prices tend to respond to changes in oil prices with a lag of a few days to a week. Because refineries have to pay more for crude oil, they charge more for the fuels they deliver to gas stations, airports and other customers. As a result, fuel prices will most likely climb over the coming days, as long as oil prices remain elevated or rise further.

U.S. Gasoline Prices, Rising Again, Are Now Up 17% Since Conflict Started - The New York Times

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Recession odds jump on Kalshi after oil tops $100

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 9:59 AM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:01 AM EDT

Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year as oil prices soar.

Kalshi’s market for whether the U.S. goes into a recession in 2026 jumped above 34% on Monday — its highest level since November, according to data from the platform. Late last week, the market had a likelihood for that outcome at under 25%.

Monday’s jump in recession odds follows the dramatic rally for U.S. oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark. Crude last passed that level in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Middle Eastern producers cut output in recent days with the key Strait of Hormuz passageway closed amid the U.S.-Iran war, raising concern about supply. West Texas Intermediate crude recorded its biggest gain on record last week as the conflict escalated.

Economists and analysts have warned that the economy could face serious consequences if oil remains above that milestone as higher gas and fuel prices hit consumer and business spending. Monday’s jump in oil prompted a selloff for stocks, signaling more pain ahead for investors after a tumultuous week.

Bettors on a separate Kalshi market predicted an 11% probability that the next U.S. recession begins in the first quarter of this year. Polymarket bettors anticipate a 31% chance of a recession by the end of this year.

Kalshi participants see a roughly 60% chance that the U.S. gas price exceeds $4 this month as crude rallies. The national average for regular gas came in at $3.48 on Monday, according to AAA.

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Recession odds jump on Kalshi after oil tops $100

Hidden danger of Iran war: Fertiliser crisis that could send food prices soaring

Last Updated: 09 March 2026, 02:59 PM IST

As tensions involving Iran escalate, attention has largely focused on the potential disruption of global oil and gas flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. However, beyond the immediate risk to energy markets lies another threat that often receives far less attention, a possible global fertiliser shock that could eventually drive food prices higher and disrupt farming worldwide.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime corridors, carrying a large share of global energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. But the narrow passage is also critical for the movement of agricultural inputs, particularly nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea and ammonia.

Roughly one-third of the world’s traded urea passes through this route. Major producers in the Gulf region, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, rely on the strait to export fertilisers produced using the region’s abundant and inexpensive natural gas resources.

If shipping through Hormuz were restricted or disrupted, the consequences would extend well beyond energy markets. Fertiliser shipments and the  liquefied natural gas used to produce them could face delays, rising transport costs, or even complete stoppages.

Why fertiliser matters for global food supply

Modern agriculture depends heavily on synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, which significantly boost crop yields. These fertilisers are produced through  a chemical process developed by German scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch in the early 20th century.

This process converts methane into ammonia, which is then used to manufacture fertilisers such as urea.  These products play a crucial role in maintaining the yields of staple crops including wheat, maize and rice that feed billions of people.

Without synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, global agricultural production would fall dramatically, making them a cornerstone of the modern food system.

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Iran conflict: Hormuz tensions could trigger global fertiliser shock, push food prices higher | Mathrubhumi English

China consumer inflation hits three-year high as producer deflation eases

Published Sun, Mar 8 2026 9:48 PM EDT

China’s consumer inflation recorded the biggest jump in more than three years, as an extended holiday bolstered spending while deflation in factory-gate prices moderated.

The consumer price index rose 1.3% in February from a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday, beating economists’ forecasts for a 0.8% increase in a Reuters poll. The increase, following a 0.2% rise in January, marked the strongest rebound since January 2023, according to LSEG data.

On a monthly basis, prices gained 1% in February, above economists’ expectations for a 0.5% rise.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 1.8% last month from a year earlier, matching the pace last seen in March 2019, according to official data compiled by Wind Information.

“The price hikes in the service sector during the Chinese New Year is stronger than market expected [and] whether this effect will be persistent beyond the holiday is not clear at this stage,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note Monday.

Service prices rose 1.1% last month from a year earlier, contributing 0.54 percentage points to the headline CPI, the official data showed, driven by demand for travel, pet care, vehicle maintenance, movies, and dining services during the holiday.

This year’s Lunar New Year holiday ran from Feb.15 to Feb. 23 — the longest on record — compared with eight days spanning late January to early February last year.

China’s producer price index slumped 0.9% from a year ago, better than economists’ expectations of a 1.2% fall, marking the slowest pace of deflation in more than a year, as surging costs for metals and commodities helped put a tentative floor under factory-gate prices.

At a top economic policy-setting meeting last week, China kept its annual consumer inflation target steady at “around 2%” for 2026. First set in 2025, it is the lowest level in more than two decades as Chinese policymakers sought to bolster domestic demand and rein in aggressive price wars sweeping across many industries.

The inflation target acts more as a ceiling than a target to be realized. In 2025, consumer prices were flat overall, while core inflation rose 0.7% as consumer confidence remained soft.

Beijing also lowered its GDP growth target this year to a range of 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious target on record since the early 1990s, as officials acknowledged persistent deflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

To bolster domestic spending, Chinese officials allocated 250 billion yuan ($36.2 billion) in this year’s fiscal budget to subsidize a consumer trade-in program — down from 300 billion yuan in 2025 — along with a 100 billion yuan government fund to support private investment and consumer spending.

“The pace [of these stimulus measures] will remain incremental,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, noting that while policymakers see weak consumption as a structural issue to be addressed, the need for “aggressive consumption stimulus is low” with exports and manufacturing seen to continue powering growth.

“The main swing factor is exports,” Hu said in a note last Thursday. “If exports remain strong, policymakers may continue to tolerate weak domestic consumption. Conversely, if exports falter, they will step up domestic stimulus to defend the GDP target.”

Geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have pushed up gold jewelry and gasoline prices in China by 6.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in February. Factory-gate prices for silver and gold refining jumped 16.9% and 8.4%, while prices for oil and gas extraction climbed 5.1%.

The Middle East war, which has shown little sign of easing, may continue to push China’s producer prices higher at least through March, said Zhang, warning that a prolonged conflict risks tipping the global economy into stagflation.

China may need to implement a more proactive fiscal policy than its budget, unveiled last week, if Middle East tensions fail to de-escalate in the second quarter, Zhang said.

China consumer inflation hits three-year high as producer deflation eases

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Why buy an EV now, if the battery technology is likely to change for the better soon?

Solid state: Why your EV battery could be worthless soon

Story by Rowan Calder March 8, 2026

The lithium-ion battery pack sitting under millions of electric vehicles on the road right now may be approaching a shelf life that has nothing to do with chemistry and everything to do with competition. Federal funding, corporate prototypes, and university research are converging on solid-state battery technology, a design that replaces the liquid electrolyte in conventional cells with a solid material. If solid-state delivers on its promises of faster charging, longer life, and higher energy density, the resale math for current EVs could shift dramatically.

Washington Bets $125 Million on the Next Battery

The clearest signal that solid-state technology has moved beyond lab curiosity is the money flowing from the federal government. The U.S. Department of Energy has directed about $125 million toward research on next-generation batteries and energy storage, establishing a clear federal priority around chemistries that go beyond today’s lithium-ion standard. Among the funded teams is the Energy Storage Research Alliance, led by Argonne National Laboratory, tasked with knitting together national lab, university, and industry expertise.

This program sits within a broader federal research ecosystem that includes the Department of Energy’s advanced projects work and tools such as the Infrastructure Exchange, which helps direct and track federal investments in energy-related projects. Together, these efforts form a pipeline that can move promising battery concepts from basic science through pilot-scale demonstrations and, eventually, into commercial deployments.

The scale of the $125 million investment matters because it signals intent, not just interest. This level of funding is designed for multi-year research hubs with specific mandates to push new battery designs toward commercial viability. For EV owners, it means the technology that could outclass their current battery pack is not a distant concept but an active, well-funded research program with institutional backing and defined milestones.

More

Solid state: Why your EV battery could be worthless soon

 Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

In a world of increasing interdependence, energy security will depend much on how countries manage their relations with one another. That is why energy security will be one of the main challenges of foreign policy in the years ahead. Oil and gas have always been political commodities.

Daniel Yergin

Monday, 9 March 2026

War Week Two. Waiting For The Crash As Crude Oil Soars. Updated.

Baltic Dry Index. 2010 -128   Brent Crude 110.60

Spot Gold  5116                          Spot Silver 83.65

US 2 Year Yield 3.56 -0.01

US Federal Debt. 38.859 trillion

US GDP 31.219 trillion.

There can be no rise in the value of labour without a fall of profits.

David Ricardo

8: 00 AM Update.

Some temporary oil relief? But when it’s gone, it’s gone.

G7 ministers to discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves

9 March 2026

G7 finance ministers are set to discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency in an emergency meeting on Monday, as they look to tackle surging oil prices amid the conflict in the Gulf.

Ministers will hold a call with International Energy Agency’s (IEA) executive director Faith Birol at 8:30am New York time (1:30pm GMT), to discuss the impact of the Iran war, according to people familiar with the situation – including a senior G7 official.

Three G7 countries, including the US, have so far expressed support for the idea, according to people familiar with the reports, the Financial Times reported.

The 32 member countries of the IEA hold strategic reserves as part of a collective emergency system designed for oil price crises, allowing big oil-consuming countries to respond to significant energy shocks.

The emergency petroleum stockpiles were set up as part of the creation of the IEA in 1974, following the Arab oil embargo, which shot up crude oil prices and triggered major fuel shortages in the West.

One person said that some US officials believe a joint release of 300m-400m barrels, which equals roughly 25 to 30 per cent of the 1.2bn barrels in the reserve, would be appropriate.

Pressure piles on Trump

The emergency meeting comes as US President Donald Trump faces increasing pressure to stop the steep rise in the crude oil price since the start of the war.

The average US petrol price rose to $3.45 (£2.45) a gallon by Sunday, from $2.98 a gallon a week ago.

The price is expected to climb further unless Trump can get a handle on prices and reverse the trend.

Surging oil prices over the past week have triggered global fallout, threatening an inflationary surge that has the potential to do lasting damage to economic growth across the world.

China, India, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy and Spain are among the biggest importers of crude, leaving them starkly exposed to price shocks.

---- Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “Stock markets have raced to catch up to all the news, but we are now looking at a vastly increased chance of a US and global recession as inflation surges.

“While a coordinated release of oil reserves provides temporary relief, it is a limited response, and is dwarfed by the loss of oil output from the Hormuz closure and the shutdown of production in the region.”

Tackling the crisis

Last Tuesday, the IEA held an emergency meeting to consider options to tackle an emerging oil supply crisis, with a document prepared for the meeting saying the IEA stood “ready to act to support the stability of oil markets”.

The confidential document noted that IEA countries held more than 1.24bn barrels of public stocks in addition to another 600m or so barrels of industry stocks that could bring additional supply if required.

More

G7 ministers to discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves

7:00 AM Update.

Black Monday ahead? Crude oil prices eased slightly after reports of Saudi's oil supply via Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Well yes, but Yanbu's oil isn't extra oil, it's already counted in the overall supply chain. The media and the US media in particular, are trying to big up a mostly non event as extra Saudi oil supply. 

In payback for EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas, President Putin is thinking about sanctioning the EU back.

Russia a 'big winner' in oil crisis sparked by Middle East war and Strait of Hormuz closure

March 8, 2026

In short:

Russia is set to be a "big winner" from the oil crisis created from the Middle East war, experts say.

President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged oil prices are rising and has promoted Russia as a "reliable supplier".

He also threatened to withdraw Russian gas supply to Europe, blaming the European Union for any crisis the region might face over shortages.

The longer the oil crisis sparked by the Middle East war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the better for Vladimir Putin and Russia.

The war in the Middle East has disrupted oil and gas supplies across the world, and soaring prices are strengthening Russia's ability to profit from its energy exports.

Oil and gas revenue is a key pillar of the Kremlin's budget and it directly helps pay for its war in Ukraine.

Thirty per cent of the Russian federal budget comes from oil and gas tax revenues, and 40 per cent of that budget is spent on military and security, figures from the Russian government show.

"Russia is a big winner from the war-related energy turmoil," said Simone Tagliapietra, energy expert at the Bruegel think tank.

"Higher oil prices mean higher revenues for the government and therefore stronger capability to finance the war in Ukraine."

Russian Urals crude oil has risen to $US72 ($102) a barrel, up from $US40 in December last year. Crude oil from outside of Russia remains higher, rising to more than $US100 per barrel. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged oil prices were rising as a result of the "aggression against Iran" and Western restrictions on Russian oil.

The European Union (EU) is about to adopt its 20th set of sanctions on Russian oil exports to constrain Moscow's ability to fund its war efforts.

Speaking on Russian television, Mr Putin took the opportunity to promote Russia as an oil provider and issue a threat to the EU.

"Russia has always been and remains a reliable supplier of energy resources for all our partners," he said.

"Maybe it would be more beneficial for us to halt [gas] supplies now to the European market and leave."

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Russia a 'big winner' in oil crisis sparked by Middle East war and Strait of Hormuz closure - ABC News

Asia markets tumble as oil nears $120 a barrel; marks largest one day gain in almost 40 years

Published Sun, Mar 8 2026 7:55 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi triggered its second circuit breaker in four sessions on Monday, leading a broader regional sell-off as oil prices neared $120 per barrel for the first time since 2022.

The index plunged over 8%, triggering a 20 minute suspension in trading from 10.31 a.m. local time. The index was last 8.58% down.

Heavyweight Samsung Electronics plunged more than 10%, while chip counterpart SK Hynix shed 12.3%.

A circuit breaker was activated last week when the benchmark tumbled more than 12% Wednesday to record its worst single-day decline.

Brent futures spiked 26.1% to $116.08, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 27.6% to $116.03. The jump in oil prices is the largest one day gain since late 1988, according to LSEG data.

The surge comes after major Middle Eastern oil producers, including Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, cut oil production following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 7.05%, falling below the 52,000 mark for the first time since January, while the Topix was down 5.36%.

Softbank Group Corp was among the largest losers on the index, falling over 11%, while chip-related stocks such as Advantest and Lasertec was also down over 13% and 11%, respectively.

Chinese markets saw smaller losses, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng index falling 2.75%, and the CSI 300 on mainland China down 1.65%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 3.2%, paring earlier losses.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, posted on Truth Social that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Only fools would think differently!” Trump added.

U.S. stock futures also tumbled on higher oil prices, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down over 800 points or 1.75% lower.

S&P 500 futures were down 1.59%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slid 1.6%.

South Korea's Kospi sinks, triggering circuit breaker amid broader Asia market rout

Dow futures tumble over 1,000 points as U.S. oil nears $120 a barrel to begin the week’s trading: Live updates

Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:35 PM EDT

Stock futures were plunging to start the week’s trading as U.S. oil prices neared $120 a barrel amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, raising fears higher energy prices could dramatically slow the U.S. economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year.

Futures tied to the Dow fell 1,026 points, or 2.33%. S&P 500 futures lost 2.05% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 2.34%.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 25% to above $113 a barrel, its first time above the $100 level since 2022, when investors were reacting to the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International benchmark Brent crude added 24% to above $115 a barrel. U.S. oil prices began the year below $60 a barrel.

Oil futures jumped on Sunday night after major Middle East producers slashed their output due to the continued closure of the key Strait of Hormuz passageway. Kuwait announced cuts but did not say by how much, while Iraq has reportedly seen its production fall 70%.

The $100 oil level was seen by many on Wall Street as a breaking point for the economy unless the war is resolved quickly and prices retreat.

Trump posted Sunday evening that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

The war showed little signs of easing despite Trump’s claim it was “already won” with Iran naming Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as its new supreme leader, according to reports.

Sunday’s moves follow a rough week on Wall Street as the U.S.-Iran war sent crude prices spiking. U.S. crude soared more than 35% last week, marking its biggest weekly gain since the futures contract began trading in 1983.

The Dow slid around 3% last week, its worst weekly decline since President Donald Trump’s initial tariff announcement roiled markets in early April 2025. The broad S&P 500 shed 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended the week 1.2% lower.

“Markets are clearly jittery as the impact, and duration, of the war in the Mideast are very uncertain, with a potentially wide range of outcomes for economies and important market influences,” BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder wrote to clients on Friday. “These events are creating some extreme movements in areas of the markets as market participants are clearly looking to reduce overweight positions or hedge embedded risk.”

There’s no economic data of note slated for Monday, but investors will follow releases on inflation, employment and gross domestic product due throughout the week. Investors will monitor Hewlett Packard Enterprise earnings after the bell on Monday, followed by Kohl’sOracleDollar General and Dick’s Sporting Goods later in the week.

Stock market today: Live updates

Global week ahead: Diplomacy in ruins as G7 meets on Iran

Published Sun, Mar 8 2026 7:12 AM EDT

The war in Iran will present the G7 countries with one of the most significant diplomatic tests in modern history.

The group - comprising the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom - has come under strain during both of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tenures.

However, the decision by Washington and Tel Aviv to attack Iran on Feb. 28 and trigger a widespread wave of strikes across the Middle East and international military bases in the region, will test the alliance under extreme circumstances.

France, which currently holds the G7 presidency, has called an emergency meeting to address the Middle East. Finance Minister Roland Lescure said he and his counterparts, as well as G7 central bank governors, will meet over the coming days.

Speaking to Franceinfo radio, he said: “I have spoken to various counterparts, in particular [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent ... to discuss the state of the situation, so we can assess any responses that might be needed.”

Diplomacy in tatters

The dispute between the U.S. and Spain will be a particular source of tension. Madrid’s refusal to allow the U.S. military access to its bases has led Trump to threaten to “cut off all trade with Spain”, while Bessent told CNBC that “the Spanish put American lives at risk.”

European leaders have rallied around Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, in a bid to protect Europe’s sovereignty. However, each G7 nation is also navigating their own path through this international dispute.

France First

With an election year just around the corner, France is walking a particularly high-stakes line.

President Emmanuel Macron branded the U.S.-Israel led attacks as “outside the framework of international law”, while also pledging to strengthen its nuclear arsenal to protect Europe, sending an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean for deterrence.

But the prospect of how persistently higher energy prices could impact inflation at home at a sensitive time for the economy is also influencing Macron’s response. Finance Minister Roland Lescure, who will lead the G7 meeting, said “in a conflict that has global repercussions, it is obviously essential that we coordinate.”

Germany’s grip on Europe

Germany has taken a more diplomatic tack, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying “now is not the time to lecture our partners and allies,” ahead of his meeting with President Trump in Washington D.C. last week.

However, the economic reality of a prolonged war in the Middle East is already of concern to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, who is expected to attend the G7 talks this week. He told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach that “this war is a burden for the economy in Germany, in Europe and for the whole world.”

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Global week ahead: Diplomacy in ruins as G7 meets on Iran

 3 AM Update.

Once upon a time, in a shipping channel, near far away prosperous global oil, LNG, aluminium and fertiliser suppliers, peace reigned and goods moved freely and relatively cheaply between exporters and importers.

Not anymore, since February 28th  when a seeming all-against-all war broke out!!

Though western media is busy misleading their public about just how lopsided in favour of the west, this war is progressing, that’s only partially true militarily. In the great global commerce war, after just a mere week of disruption, the commerce war has been lopsided in favour of Iran.

For now, some of Iran’s oil continues to flow, primarily to Asia, but some in America are calling on the US Navy to start seizing Iranian tankers, Venezuelan style.

The downside, cutting off Iran’s very limited oil exports, incentivises Iran to actually mine the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The mere threat of doing so threatens a global commerce calamity and fast.

With no apparent US ending game plan except President Trump’s “unconditional surrender,” improbable for many weeks, the global economy stands on the cusp of a repeat of 1929-1933.

Bad things are happening fast in the global economy from week two in the unnecessary, war in the Persian Gulf.

As the price of diesel and natural gas soars in America and around the planet, inflation, bankruptcies and massive unemployment follow within weeks if not days.

South Korea’s Kospi sinks over 8%, triggering circuit breaker amid broader Asia market rout as oil crosses $110

Published Sun, Mar 8 20267 :55 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi triggered its second circuit breaker in four sessions on Monday, leading a broader regional sell-off as oil prices breached $110 per barrel for the first time since 2022.

The index plunged over 8%, triggering a 20 minute suspension in trading from 10.31 a.m. local time. Heavyweight Samsung Electronics plunged more than 10%, while chip counterpart SK Hynix shed 11.6%.

A circuit breaker was activated last week when the benchmark tumbled more than 12% Wednesday to record its worst single-day decline.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 6.48%, falling below the 53,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 6, while the Topix was down 5.8%.

Softbank Group Corp was among the largest losers on the index, falling over 11%, while chip-related stocks such as Advantest and Lasertec was also down over 10% and 9%, respectively.

Brent futures spiked 23.38% to $114.30, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 26.35% to $114.85.

The surge comes after major Middle Eastern oil producers, including Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, cut oil production following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 4.15%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index also fell 3%, while the CSI 300 on mainland China was down 2%.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, posted on Truth Social that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Only fools would think differently!” Trump added.

U.S. stock futures also tumbled on higher oil prices, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down over 800 points or 1.75% lower.

S&P 500 futures were down 1.59%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slid 1.6%.

South Korea's Kospi sinks, triggering circuit breaker amid broader Asia market rout

Oil surges above $110 a barrel; Trump says ‘small price to pay’ for defeating Iran

Published Sun, Mar 8 2026 6:03 PM EDT

Crude oil prices crossed $110 per barrel on Sunday, after major Middle East producers cut output because the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Iran war.

West Texas Intermediate jumped 26.5%, or $24, to $114.9 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent advanced 23%, or $21.56, to $114.25. U.S. crude oil surged about 35% last week in its biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983. The last time oil prices topped $100 per barrel was after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Shortly after oil blasted past $100 at the open of trading Sunday evening, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Only fools would think differently!” Trump added.

Kuwait, the fifth-biggest producer in OPEC, announced precautionary cuts Saturday to its oil production and refinery output due to “Iranian threats against safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.” The state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation did not detail the size of the cuts.

Output in Iraq, the second-biggest OPEC producer, has effectively collapsed. Production from its three main southern oilfields has fallen 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, three industry officials told Reuters Sunday. Those fields produced 4.3 million bpd before Iran war.

And the United Arab Emirates, the third-biggest producer in OPEC, said Saturday that it is “carefully managing offshore production levels to address storage requirements.” The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) said its onshore operations are continuing normally.

Gulf Arab states are cutting production because they are running out of storage space, as oil barrels pile up with nowhere to go due to the closure of the Strait. Tankers are unwilling transit the narrow waterway because they are worried Iran will attack them. About 20% of the world’s oil consumption is exported through the Strait.

The war showed little signs of easing despite President Donald Trump’s claim it was “already won.” Iran named Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as its new supreme leader, according to reports. The U.S. and Israel killed Khamenei in the opening days of the war.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday traffic through the Strait will resume after the U.S. has destroyed Iran’s ability to threaten tankers.

“We’re not too long away before you’ll see more regular resumption of ship traffic through the Straits of Hormuz,” Wright told CNN in an interview. “We’re nowhere near normal traffic right now. That will take some time. But again, worst case that’s a few weeks, that’s not months.”

Oil surges above $110 a barrel; Trump says 'small price to pay' for defeating Iran

Iran's miscalculation has 'destroyed everything', Qatar's PM says

8 March 2026

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani has described Iran's strikes on Gulf countries as a "dangerous miscalculation" - warning the escalation risks destabilising the region and sending shockwaves through the global economy.

Speaking to the media for the first time since Qatar has come under repeated missile and drone attacks, the prime minister told Sky News that the country had entered what he called "a very difficult period" - but praised the professionalism of its defence and security forces.

For a man who has mediated some of the world's most complex crises, what stood out to me was how angry he was about Iran's actions.

"It is a big sense of betrayal," he told me. "Just an hour after the start of the war, Qatar and other Gulf countries have been attacked. We made clear that we were not going to take part in any wars against our neighbours."

----Yet even as he condemned the strikes, the prime minister repeatedly stressed that military escalation would only deepen the crisis - and that the responsibility to step back lies with all sides.

"We continue to seek de-escalation," he said. "They are our neighbours - it's our destiny."

His message was directed not only at Tehran. He also called on the US to reduce tensions, warning of the risk that the entire region slides into war.

Diplomacy, he argued, remains the only viable path out of the crisis.

"The miscalculation by the Iranians to attack Gulf countries has destroyed everything," he said, but insisted the answer now must be renewed negotiations.

----Over and over again, he returned to the global stakes - and that what happens in the Gulf won't stay in the Gulf.

Qatar supplies roughly 20% of the world's gas and is one of the planet's largest fertiliser producers - meaning any sustained disruption would impact markets, food supplies and people worldwide.

Even as the Gulf states insist this is not their fight, however, they are an integral aspect of it.

And that, perhaps, is the central danger of this moment - a war that began between the US, Israel and Iran is now dragging in countries that want no part of it, but increasingly find themselves on its front lines.

Iran's miscalculation has 'destroyed everything', Qatar's PM says

Cost of plane tickets likely to soar as Iran war brings huge fuel price surge — United CEO says impact will ‘probably start quick’

By Andrew Court  Published March 7, 2026, 11:52 a.m. ET

The war in Iran has already caused the cost of plane tickets to rise, experts say.

Jet fuel, which accounts for about one-fifth of airlines’ operating expenses, surged a staggering 56% in the days following the initial Feb. 28 US and Israeli strikes on Iran, per CBS News.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key Middle East trade route for oil and liquefied natural gas, is effectively closed amid the conflict.

Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, told the outlet that airlines “began increasing airfares this week as spot jet fuel prices started to spike.”

The expert said increases have usually been for premium seats, such as those located in first-class and business.

“They are trying to find a balance between how much they can increase fares to cover substantially higher fuel costs and how high is too high,” he stated.

Meanwhile, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby says the war’s impact on ticket prices will “probably start quick.”

He made the claim during a discussion at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences on Thursday, as cited by The Street.

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Plane ticket prices likely to soar as Iran war brings huge fuel price surge: United CEO says impact will 'probably start quick'

Iran Is Hitting the Radars That Underpin U.S. Missile Defenses

Tehran is carrying out many of the strikes with one-way attack drones

March 7, 2026 1:25 pm ET

Iran is targeting the radar systems that serve as the eyes of the air defenses in the Middle East, hitting several in recent days and degrading the ability of the U.S. and its allies to track incoming missiles.

Iranian strikes in retaliation for the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign have hit radar, communications and air defense systems in Qatar, the U.A.E., Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, according to U.S. officials, military analysts and commercially available satellite images.

The strikes are often carried out by Iran’s one-way attack drones, such as its Shaheds, which are a fraction of the cost of the missiles that the sophisticated U.S. systems were designed to defend against. Iran has fired fewer missiles in recent days.

“Overall, our defenses are doing quite well. That said, it is clear that the Iranians have a sense of what type of targets they want to continue to press against, and that includes command and control and our ability to detect inbound missiles and drones,” said Ravi Chaudhary, a former assistant secretary of the Air Force in charge of installations.

A spokesman for U.S. Central Command said the military remained at full combat capability despite the hits. The U.S. has been bolstering its defenses in the region, sending in more equipment and interceptors, U.S. officials said.

The U.S. says it is degrading Iran’s ability to launch attacks by the day. Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, said Thursday that ballistic-missile attacks had decreased by 90% and drone attacks had dropped by 83% since the war began.

The U.S. and its partners in the region use a network of Thaads, Patriots and other air-defense systems to shoot down missiles, drones and rockets fired by Iran and its allied militias in the region.

Those air defense batteries depend on radar to detect incoming missiles and drones. Those systems are often rare and expensive. The conflict has also chewed through U.S. stocks of interceptors it uses to fend off missiles. 

One of the most significant strikes hit a sophisticated early-warning radar system at Qatar’s Al-Udeid, which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The attack damaged the AN/FPS-132 radar, hindering its ability to function, according to satellite imagery and a U.S. official.

---- Satellite images from Planet Labs show damage to the radar installation in Qatar. The images show debris on the northeastern face of the domed radar installation, the side facing Iran, along with water runoff, likely from efforts to put out a fire, according to Sam Lair, a researcher with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

“It demonstrates the fragility of some of these kind of higher tier radars,” said Lair, who published an analysis of the satellite image.

Iran also struck a TPY-2 radar attached to a Thaad battery in Jordan, according to satellite imagery and a U.S. official. The radar is a critical component of the ground-based missile-defense system, which intercepts ballistic missiles above the atmosphere.

Satellite images reviewed by The Wall Street Journal also show damage to three radar domes at Camp Arifjan, a base used by U.S. forces in Kuwait, and damage to a satellite communications system at the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

In Saudi Arabia, a satellite image taken on March 1 shows smoke billowing from a building at a radar site at the kingdom’s Prince Sultan Air Base.

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Iran Is Hitting the Radars That Underpin U.S. Missile Defenses - WSJ

Iran wipes out America's $300M missile shield system: How THAAD radar was destroyed in Jordan strikes

March 7, 2026

Iran has dealt a heavy blow to the United States after it destroyed a key $300 million radar system crucial to directing US missile defence batteries in the Gulf. Satellite photos show that an RTX Corp. AN/TPY-2 radar and support equipment - used by US THAAD missile defence systems - was destroyed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan in the opening days of the war, CNN reported, citing commercial satellite imagery. The destruction risks further straining the region's ability to counter future attacks, according to a US official.

Data gathered by the Foundation for Defence of Democracies think tank shows two reported Iranian strikes in Jordan: one on February 28 and one on March 3. Both were reported to have been intercepted, Bloomberg reported.

"If successful, an Iranian strike on a THAAD radar would mark one of Iran's most successful attacks so far," said Ryan Brobst, deputy director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. However, he added that "the US military and its partners have other radars that can continue to provide air and missile defense coverage, mitigating the loss of any single radar."

Why this is a big blow to the US

The US has eight THAAD systems globally, including in South Korea and Guam. US Terminal High Altitude Area Defence, or THAAD, units are meant to destroy ballistic missiles at the edges of the atmosphere, enabling them to engage more difficult threats than shorter-range Patriot batteries. The batteries cost about $1 billion each, with the radar comprising about $300 million of that, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

With this AN/TPY-2 radar out of commission, missile interception duties will fall onto the Patriot systems, for which PAC-3 missiles are already in short supply.

"These are scarce strategic resources and its loss is a huge blow," Tom Karako, a missile defence expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg. The Army's current "eight-battery force is still below the force structure requirements of nine set back in 2012, so there aren't exactly any spare TPY-2 lying around," he said.

A THAAD battery consists of 90 soldiers, six truck-mounted launchers and forty-eight interceptors - 8 per launcher - one TPY-2 radar, as well as a tactical fire control and communication unit. Each interceptor missile, manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp., costs about $13 million.

Earlier in the war, an AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar was also damaged during an Iranian attack, according to research from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. That system is an early warning radar, designed to spot threats at extreme distances but without the precision needed to launch weapons at them.

Air and missile defence systems in the Gulf region have been stressed, and the strikes and counterstrikes in the region have prompted fears that stockpiles of advanced interceptors such as THAAD and PAC-3 could soon run dangerously low. On Friday, defence contractors, including Lockheed and RTX, met at the White House as the Pentagon pushes to speed weapons production.

Iran wipes out America's $300M missile shield system: How THAAD radar was destroyed in Jordan strikes

Iranian drone damages desalination plant in Bahrain

8 March 2026

An Iranian drone attack caused “material damage” to a desalination plant, Bahrain said Sunday morning.

It was the first time an Arab country has reported Iran targeting a desalination plant during the nine-day war.

Hundreds of desalination plants sit along the Persian Gulf coast, and the Arab countries in the region rely heavily on the facilities for their drinking water.

Iranian drone damages desalination plant in Bahrain

US aluminium buyers hunt for alternatives as Iran war upends global supply

The Middle East supply turmoil comes at a particularly fragile moment for American aluminium consumers

Published Sat, Mar 7, 2026 · 03:27 PM

[NEW YORK] Aluminium buyers in the US are rushing to secure alternative supplies from Asia as the war on Iran disrupts a major foreign source, a development that threatens to hike the cost of the metal used in auto parts, appliances and beverage cans.

An effective halt on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has already prompted two top producers in the region, Qatar and Bahrain, to suspend deliveries to customers. The US relies heavily on imports, with the Middle East supplying nearly a fifth of its aluminium last year, according to government data.

Andy Massey of Bonnell Aluminum said the company, which molds aluminium into shapes that can be used in products including cars and construction materials, is looking to source the metal from markets such as India and Australia. The Georgia-based manufacturer may even tap the domestic market for near-term deliveries if there’s metal that is not tied up in annual contracts.

“We are all scrambling to figure out what’s happening on the ground” in the Middle East, said Massey, Bonnell’s vice-president of metals, procurement and transportation. “I need to find alternative supplies over the next two days – fast – and make sure we don’t overpay.”

The Middle East supply turmoil comes at a particularly fragile moment for American aluminium consumers. They have already been squeezed by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs on the metal, which have driven up domestic prices and constrained flows from Canada, the largest foreign supplier to the US. Even brief interruptions to the supply of aluminium, prized by manufacturers for its abundance and low cost, can cause chaos for factories that tend to buy it on a just-in-time basis.

RM-Metals, a New Jersey-based supplier of speciality metal products, is facing a quandary similar to Bonnell’s. It’s seeking alternative sources as some of its shipments remain stuck in Dubai, according to vice president Sam Desai.

“Korea is a great option right now,” said Desai, adding that his firm is also looking at supplies from northern Europe. “It’s becoming very hard because the cost of aluminium itself has gone up” since the Iran war started.

Prices of the lightweight metal traded on the London Metal Exchange soared to the highest since 2022 this week. The so-called US Midwest premium – the amount added to global benchmarks to deliver aluminium to that region – climbed to a fresh record of US$1.075 a pound. Before the Iran crisis, American manufacturers were already paying among the highest aluminium prices worldwide due to Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs.

While aluminium from India is the most likely seaborne replacement for American consumers, shipping it across the Pacific takes about 60 days, according to Jean Simard, chief executive officer of Aluminium Association of Canada. Other alternatives include Brazil, Indonesia, Iceland and Norway, said Timna Tanners, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities.

Meanwhile, shipments from Canada, the most obvious alternative for US buyers, have continued to decline under Trump’s tariffs. Producers there have increasingly favoured Europe, where net returns have been more attractive than selling into the US market. At the same time, expectations that the levies could be eased or repealed in the coming months have made US buyers wary of locking in large volumes, for fear of overpaying if the tariffs are later rolled back.

It could be “a timely moment to review” the US tariffs on Canadian aluminium, Simard said. Those levies, which fall under a law that allows duties on certain sectors to protect national security, were not affected by the recent Supreme Court decision that struck down other Trump tariffs.

About six million tonnes of primary aluminium, metal that has not yet been recycled, is now stranded in the Middle East, according to Simard. There is about 30 days’ supply of alumina, the raw material used to make aluminium, left for most smelters in the region, he said.

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US aluminium buyers hunt for alternatives as Iran war upends global supply - The Business Times

Maritime insurance premiums surge as Iran conflict widens

March 6, 2026 11:06 AM GMT Updated March 6, 2026

March 6 (Reuters) - As the conflict in the Gulf widens, maritime insurance premiums for war coverage are surging -- in some cases by more than 1000% -- dramatically driving up the cost of moving energy through a ​critical maritime corridor.

The conflagration sparked by Saturday's Israeli-U.S. air strikes against Tehran has paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping chokepoint. Iran on Monday said ‌it would fire on any ship trying to pass, and at least nine vessels have suffered damage in the area since the conflict began.

War risk insurance allows ship owners to claim against any damage to their vessel or the cargo resulting from conflict or terrorism. Policies are typically annual, although some cover one-off voyages through risky waters, including war zones.

The spike in premiums underscores how the war is raising costs for ship owners, traders and energy companies moving cargo through ​the Strait, adding to fears the conflict -- which shows no signs of abating -- could stoke inflation if it goes on, said analysts.

"The hull war market has reacted more immediately," due to ​the risk of large, concentrated losses if multiple vessels are hit in the same area, said Stephen Rudman, head of marine, Asia, at global insurance ⁠broker Aon, adding that if the situation escalates materially, further rate correction is likely.

"Additional premiums for vessels transiting high-risk waters are rising sharply and may continue to fluctuate in the short term," he said.

Cargo ​war risk premium rates are also increasing, with quotes being reviewed on a voyage-by-voyage basis, particularly for energy and bulk commodity trades, he said.

Analysts at Jefferies estimated on Thursday that potential industry losses from ​at least seven vessels reported damaged, at the time its note was published on March 5, could reach up to $1.75 billion.

With most tankers valued between $200 million and $300 million, the new insurance rate of 3% would imply a hull war risk premium of about $7.5 million, up from around 0.25%, or $625,000, before the conflict began, the brokerage added.

Angus Blayney, marine divisional director at Gallagher, a major insurance broker, told Reuters that rates have increased and are changing daily depending on ​vessel type and individual circumstances, but he did not provide specific figures. He added that cover remains available.

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Maritime insurance premiums surge as Iran conflict widens | Reuters

In our increasingly unstable, insane world, Ukraine’s Zelensky threatens to assassinate Hungary’s Orban.

Hungary seizes millions of euros in cash and gold from Ukrainian convoy

Seven Ukrainians arrested and money-laundering investigation launched in latest spat between Kyiv and Budapest

Fri 6 Mar 2026 16.00 GMT

Hungary seizes millions of euros in cash and gold from Ukrainian convoy

Seven Ukrainians arrested and money-laundering investigation launched in latest spat between Kyiv and Budapest

An increasingly acrimonious spat between Hungary and Ukraine has escalated further, as Budapest impounded two Ukrainian armoured bank vehicles carrying millions of euros of hard cash as well as bars of gold.

Seven Ukrainian citizens accompanying the convoy were also arrested. Hungarian officials said the detained Ukrainians had intelligence links and suggested the money could be of dubious origin, while Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, accused Budapest of “taking hostages and stealing money”.

Sybiha also accused the pro-Russian Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, of cooking up the scandal for political gain, ahead of Hungarian elections next month.

Hungary’s national tax and customs administration said it had opened a money-laundering investigation over the shipment, which it said was made up of $40m and €35m in cash, as well as 9kg of gold. It said one of those arrested was “a former Ukrainian intelligence service general”.

Oschadbank, Ukraine’s state savings bank, said its staff were transporting cash and gold between between Austria and Ukraine in a “routine trip”, carried out by land because of restrictions on air travel in Ukraine.

But Orbán’s political director, Balázs Orbán, cast doubt on the shipment: “Armoured vehicles full of cash and gold moving across Hungary is not how legitimate financial transactions usually work,” he wrote on X. “The real question is simple: who stands behind this money and what is it meant to finance?”

The seizure follows a dispute over gas supplies, in which Hungary and Slovakia have accused Kyiv of deliberately stalling on repairs to an oil pipeline after it was hit in an apparent Russian drone attack. In response, Orbán vetoed further EU sanctions on Russia as well as an additional €90bn loan for Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to the loan veto on Thursday with what sounded like a physical threat to Orbán. “We hope that one person in the European Union will not block the 90 bn Otherwise we will give this person’s address to our armed forces, to our guys. Let them call him and talk to him in their own language,” he said, in comments that caused shock in Budapest.

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Hungary seizes millions of euros in cash and gold from Ukrainian convoy | Hungary | The Guardian

In other news, the first British cockroach arrives.

Bank of England investigates collapse of £2bn shadow bank

6 March 2026

The Bank of England is investigating the collapse of a £2bn British “shadow bank” as fears about the sector rip through stock markets.

Officials at the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) have requested information from lenders including Barclays that backed Market Financial Solutions (MFS), a private credit provider that was placed into administration amid allegations of fraud last week.

PRA, a division of the central bank that regulates lenders, is reportedly concerned about insufficient risk assessment and due diligence by banks of MFS and its related companies, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the news.

The PRA is also investigating whether banks have indirect exposure through lending to private capital groups that may have backed MFS independently.

A Bank of England spokesman said: “We are constantly monitoring the financial system and wider markets and stay in close contact with firms. It is the responsibility of firms to manage the risks to which they are exposed.”

The enquiries come amid a broader upheaval in the private credit sector. Shares in BlackRock tumbled by 6pc in the US on Friday after the asset manager limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds for the first time.

Blackrock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund, which is marketed to individuals, said it would not offer redemptions above the traditional 5pc limit each quarter, despite receiving requests to redeem 9.3pc of shares in the most recent quarter.

Private credit funds, often called “shadow banks”, extend loans but do not take deposits and so are not subject to the same kind of strict regulations as banks. The sector has exploded in size since the financial crisis as banks have faced stricter regulation.

However, there are concerns about loose lending standards and the opacity of the sector. Several Wall Street leaders have expressed worries about private credit, with Lloyd Blankfein, the former boss of Goldman Sachs, saying he could “smell” a crash on the horizon and Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan, warning of “cockroaches” in the sector.

MFS described itself as a specialist provider of buy-to-let mortgage lending and bridging finance. It was part of a fast-growing crop of so-called bridging lenders in the UK. These firms provide short-term, property-backed loans to borrowers who may not qualify for traditional bank financing and often charge higher interest rates.

A number of large banks gave capital to MFS to lend, including Santander, Jefferies and Barclays, which has between £500m and £600m tied up in the firm.

Private capital firms including Apollo’s Atlas SP Partners and Castlelake also extended financing to the failed mortgage lender. Some of these firms may have used leverage from banks to make these loans in the first place.

Last week, a court placed MFS into administration amid accusations of fraud. It has been estimated that there is a shortfall on its balance sheet of as much as £930m.

Investors reportedly first noticed financial irregularities in November. Barclays, which also provided banking services to MFS, froze the bridge loan provider’s accounts in January.

Bank of England investigates collapse of £2bn shadow bank

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US pump prices surge as Iran war upends global energy supply

March 7, 2026 12:59 AM GMT

MARIETTA/NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices are soaring as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran constrains oil and fuel exports, which could be a political test for President Donald Trump's Republican Party ahead ​of midterm elections in November.

Fuel prices jumped more than 10% this week as oil rose above $90 a barrel, its highest in years, adding pain at the ‌pump for consumers already strained by inflation. Trump on Thursday shrugged off higher gasoline prices in an interview with Reuters, opens new tab, saying "if they rise, they rise."

The president had vowed to lower energy prices and unleash U.S. oil and gas drilling during his second term, but much of his tenure has been marked by volatility and uncertainty amid shifts in policies like tariffs and geopolitical turmoil. The U.S. is the world's largest oil producer. It is a major exporter ​but also imports millions of barrels a day since it is the world's largest oil consumer.

As of Friday, the national average prices for regular gasoline stood at $3.32 a ​gallon, up 11% from a week ago and the highest since September 2024, according to data from the motorists association AAA. Diesel was at $4.33, ⁠up 15% from a week ago, surging to the highest since November 2023.

MIDWEST, SOUTH FEEL THE PINCH

U.S. motorists in parts of the Midwest and the South, including states that supported Trump, have ​seen some of the steepest increases in fuel costs since the conflict in Iran started.

In Georgia, a swing state, average retail gasoline prices rose 40.1 cents a gallon over the past week, ​according to fuel tracking site GasBuddy.

Andrenna McDaniel, a healthcare insurance worker in South Fulton, Georgia, said she was surprised to see prices skyrocket overnight.

"They jumped up so quickly," she said on Friday, adding that she does not agree with the war at all.

McDaniel, a Democrat, said that for now she is only driving for the most important things, and feels lucky that she works from home so she does not have to drive as ​much as other people do.

Georgia voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

Other states, including Indiana and West Virginia have seen prices rise by 44.3 cents and 43.9 cents, respectively.

PRICES MAY RISE FURTHER

More pain may be on the way, analysts said, as oil prices continue to trend upward. On Friday, U.S. oil futures settled at $90.90 a barrel, up nearly $10 and the biggest single-day rise since April 2020.

"Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist," GasBuddy analyst Patrick De ​Haan said.

The disruptions in the Middle East and ​the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade ⁠conduit, have boosted demand for U.S. oil abroad, which in turn has driven up prices for domestic refiners too.

"The U.S. has weaned itself off of its dependence on Middle Eastern crude, but obviously Asian refineries, and to a lesser extent, European refineries have not," Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil ​analyst with OPIS. "That's what you're seeing happen in the spot market, because the demand for U.S. exports rise, and so the price rise."

Seasonal ​factors could add further ⁠pressure. Gasoline prices typically go up in the spring and peak in the summer due to higher gasoline demand and production of summer-blend gasoline, which is more costly to produce.

Diesel fuel saw an even more aggressive jump since Iran began retaliating against U.S. and Israeli strikes, significantly disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Global diesel inventories have remained in tight supply due to heavy demand for heating and power generation ⁠during a ​prolonged winter in the U.S. and other parts of the world and a structural tightness of refining capacity.

Sticker prices ​of everything from food to furniture go up when the cost of diesel goes up, as the fuel is mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and global shipping, analysts said.

"In a world where buzzword seems to be 'affordability', that is ​certainly not going to help," Cinquegrana said.

US pump prices surge as Iran war upends global energy supply | Reuters

Trump tariffs: Customs and Border Protection tells judge it can’t comply with refund order

Published Fri, Mar 6 2026 10:59 AM EST Updated Fri, Mar 6 2026 4:16 PM EST

U.S. Customs and Border Protection told a U.S. Court of International Trade judge on Friday that it is not currently able to comply with his order to begin refunding about $166 billion collected in reciprocal tariffs imposed last year by President Donald Trump.

CBP, in a court filing, cited its existing technology, processes and manpower requirements as the reasons it could not immediately comply with the conditions of Judge Richard Eaton’s order on the so-called IEEPA tariffs. The Supreme Court recently ruled those duties are illegal.

But CBP also suggested in the new filing that it could begin issuing refunds by late April after revamping its technology.

Brandon Lord, executive director of the trade programs directorate at CBP’s Office of Trade, in the filing said that as of Wednesday, more than 330,000 importers have made a total of over 53 million
entries “in which they have deposited or paid duties imposed pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.”

Trump had invoked that act to slap reciprocal tariffs in various amounts on imported products from most of the world’s countries, without authorization from Congress.

The filing came as Eaton was set to hold a hearing Friday on the refund issue at the Court of International Trade in New York.

Eaton has been designated as the only CIT judge who will hear lawsuits from importers seeking refunds on Trump’s tariffs in light of the Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling invalidating them on Feb. 20, in the case known as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump.

CBP in the filing said it “is confident that it can develop and implement” new functionality in its Automated Commercial Environment — the system for tracking imported merchandise — “that will streamline and consolidate refunds and interest payments on an importer basis,” instead of issuing more than 54 million separate refunds.

“CBP is making all possible efforts to have this new ACE functionality ready for use in 45 days,” the agency said. “This new process will require minimal submission from importers.”

The agency said it estimates that changing the ACE system “will save CBP over 4 million hours” of work by employees.

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Trump tariffs refunds: Customs and Border Protection can't comply with order

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

The Rise of “Stealth Solar”: How Balcony Power Is Quietly Changing the Energy Landscape

March 5, 2026

Across cities and suburbs, a quiet energy revolution is unfolding. Instead of large rooftop arrays installed by contractors, a growing number of households are experimenting with small, plug-in solar systems mounted on balconies, backyard sheds, and apartment railings. Often called “balcony solar” or “plug-in solar,” these compact photovoltaic systems allow people to generate electricity without major installation costs or construction work.

The appeal is straightforward: lower electricity bills and greater energy independence. A typical plug-in solar setup includes one to four solar panels connected to a small inverter and plugged into a household outlet. The electricity produced offsets a portion of the home’s baseline consumption—powering appliances such as refrigerators, routers, lighting, and electronics.

In an era of rising energy prices and climate concerns, these small systems are becoming a gateway technology for households that cannot install full rooftop arrays.

How Plug-In Solar Systems Actually Work

Unlike traditional solar installations that require professional electrical integration, balcony solar systems are designed to be simple and modular. The panels convert sunlight into electricity, which flows through a micro-inverter and then into the home’s electrical circuit.

Because these systems operate on a small scale, their goal is not to power an entire house. Instead, they help offset everyday energy demand.

These systems can cover roughly 15–25% of the electricity used by an average apartment, depending on sunlight and energy consumption patterns.

In dense urban environments—where rooftop access may be limited—this small contribution can still make a meaningful difference.

Why Balcony Solar Thrives Overseas

The concept of plug-in solar is far from new. In Europe, particularly Germany, balcony solar systems have become a mainstream technology. By 2024, more than 700,000 balcony solar units were installed in Germany alone, reflecting strong consumer demand for small-scale renewable solutions.

Several factors helped drive that growth:

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The Rise of “Stealth Solar”: How Balcony Power Is Quietly Changing the Energy Landscape - EarthTimes

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

There is no way of keeping profits up but by keeping wages down.

David Ricardo