Baltic
Dry Index. 2043 -24 Brent Crude 70.88
Spot Gold 5175 Spot Silver 86.85
US 2 Year Yield 3.48 +0.01
US Federal Debt. 38.721 trillion US GDP 31.179 trillion.
“If ignorance is bliss, then politicians must be the happiest people on earth.”
Anon.
An interesting trading week ahead.
Trump’s new temporary tariffs start tomorrow, also the day President Trump gets
to deliver his annual State of the Union address. Will he use his speech to
rant and rail against SCOTUS whose nine members will be sitting in the gallery?
As he speaks will the US military be bombing Iran?
On Friday, Comex March silver first notice day arrives. Will Comex be forced to declare a silver force majeure cash settlement next month?
Stock futures fall amid uncertainty
about Trump new tariffs: Live updates
Updated Mon, Feb 23 2026 9:26 PM EST
U.S. stock futures fell Sunday night
after President Donald Trump said he’s raising his global tariffs to 15% from 10%
after the Supreme Court struck
down the president’s “reciprocal” tariffs. The new tariffs heightened market
uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and global growth.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
dropped 300 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures slid
0.7% and nearly 1%, respectively.
Oil prices sank, with Brent crude futures
declining 0.7% to $71.26 a barrel. U.S. crude futures were at $65.95 a barrel,
down 0.8%.
Bitcoin also slumped, tumbling 5% to
below $65,000 as the cryptocurrency’s sharp sell-off continued.
Those moves come after Trump on
Saturday said he would increase global
tariffs to 15%, up from the 10% he announced on Friday. Trump said the
duties would go into effect immediately, though it was unclear whether any
official documents had been signed regarding the timing.
“I, as President of the United
States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide
Tariff on Countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the U.S. off for
decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and
legally tested, 15% level,” Trump wrote.
Trump also warned that additional
levies would be coming over the next few months.
Wall Street is coming off a choppy
trading session. On Friday, stocks initially rallied after the Supreme Court
struck down a broad swath of Trump’s trade agenda, before pulling back and then
ultimately recovering again.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended
the session higher by more than 230 points, 0.5%, recovering from a 200-point
loss earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%,
while the Nasdaq Composite rose
0.9%.
Investors hoped the Supreme Court
ruling would soothe tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners and lead
to possible refunds to companies affected by the tariffs, but are awaiting more
clarity from the White House.
“It would seem that Wall Street —
and Main Street — are going to be dealing with the issue of trade and tariffs
for some time to come,” Tim Holland, chief investment officer of Orion Wealth
Management, wrote on Friday.
Meanwhile, Iran remains a focal
point for investors. This past week, Trump encouraged Iran to reach a deal over
its nuclear program, warning that otherwise “bad things” might happen.
Trump is scheduled to deliver his
State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday.
Nvidia earnings will be a key focus
this week. The chipmaking giant is set to release results on Wednesday. It’s
one of only two Magnificent Seven stocks to have eked out a gain this year. The
company will have to reassure investors that its artificial intelligence
investment strategy remains intact.
On the economic front, durable goods
orders and factory orders data are set to be released on Monday morning.
Stock
market today: Live updates
South Korea’s Kospi hits fresh high
as Asian markets brush off Trump’s latest tariff moves
Published Sun, Feb 22 2026 6:50 PM
EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday
amid tariff uncertainty as U.S. President Donald Trump announced over
the weekend that he would increase global tariffs to 15% from 10%.
The move came on the heels of a U.S.
Supreme Court decision striking down a broad swath of the president’s trade
agenda enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977,
or IEEPA.
That said, U.S. trading partners are
not off the hook, said Rystad Energy’s chief economist Claudio Galimberti.
“While the Supreme Court’s ruling
invalidates a large share of existing tariffs and weakens the ability to target
individual countries, it does not dismantle the broader tariff framework,” he
wrote in a note following the announcement.
If the upper tariff limit is reached
without prior IEEPA exemptions, the average rate could climb even higher than
under the structure the Supreme Court just struck down, Galimberti added.
South Korea’s Kospi rose for a third
straight session, jumping 1.7% to a fresh record high. Index heavyweights SK
Hynix and Samsung Electronics rose over 3% and 2%, respectively.
The small-cap Kosdaq added 0.74%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.17%
in early trade.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped over
2%.
Markets in China and Japan were
closed for a holiday.
Bitcoin fell more than 3%
to below $65,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise
global tariffs to 15%.
“The move lower in bitcoin looks
less like a crypto‑specific shock and more like a classic risk‑sentiment
reset,” said Christopher Hamilton, head of client investment solutions, APAC
ex-Japan.
“Bitcoin has become increasingly
sensitive to global liquidity conditions. When markets reprice growth,
inflation or policy risks as we’re currently seeing with tariffs, bitcoin often
acts as a high‑beta expression of risk rather than a defensive asset.”
Oil
prices were last seen trading lower, erasing earlier gains.
International benchmark Brent crude
futures fell 0.6% to $71.33 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures
were 0.78% lower at $65.96.
“The Supreme Court ruling is a
setback ... but it is not an end to his policy agenda,” said Arthur
Laffer, Jr., president of Laffer Tengler Investments.
Laffer said countries such as
Vietnam and India that struck trade deals with the U.S. should think twice
before backing away from those agreements, arguing that trade remains a central
pillar of Trump’s political and economic strategy and that the president is
likely to keep pressing the issue.
On Friday, U.S. stocks rose after
the Supreme Court ruling, potentially providing relief for companies burdened
by higher costs from the duties and easing concern about sticky inflation still
plaguing the U.S. economy.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.69%
and closed at 6,909.51, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%
and settled at 22,886.07. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 230.81 points, or 0.47%, and ended at
49,625.97. The 30-stock index recovered from a 200-point loss earlier in the
session on disappointing economic data.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Hang Seng Index, Nifty 50, Kospi
In Trump tariff chaos news, exactly
how does a 15 percent tariff for 150 days solve anything? Trump’s new tariffs end on July 24, about
100 days out from the US mid-term elections.
Other than getting passed straight
on to the US consumer, in effect a consumer tax; if any of the rest of the
world bring in retaliatory tariffs, their tariffs aren’t limited to 150 days
but could in theory be permanent.
If a US consumer can hold off buying
a tariffed import for 151 days, why wouldn’t they just wait?
Given that Trump changed his mind
and raised his 10 percent tariff to 15 percent in a matter of hours, what is
the point of trying to negotiate anything with President Trump?
Trump to hike global tariffs to 15%
from 10%, ‘effective immediately’
Published Sat, Feb 21 2026 11:23 AM
EST Updated Sat, Feb 21 2026 1:49 PM EST
President Donald
Trump on Saturday said he would
increase global tariffs to 15% from 10%, one day after the Supreme Court struck down a
broad swath of the president’s trade agenda.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the new tariffs will be “effective
immediately.” He also warned that additional levies would follow.
“I, as President of the United
States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide
Tariff on Countries, many of which have been “ripping” the U.S. off for
decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and
legally tested, 15% level,” he wrote.
“During the next short number of
months, the Trump Administration will determine and issue the new and legally
permissible Tariffs,” he added.
Trump’s announcement claimed that
the new tariffs will take effect without delay, but it is unclear if any
official documents have been signed detailing the timing. A White House fact sheet issued Friday said the original 10% tariffs would go
into effect on Tuesday, Feb. 24, at 12:01 a.m. ET.
The White House did not immediately
respond to a CNBC request for clarification.
Trump, who is scheduled to deliver his
State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, was dealt a blow Friday when
the Supreme Court decided in a 6-3 tariff ruling that the president wrongfully invoked the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement his levies.
On Friday, Trump responded hours
after the ruling with a 10% global tariff that
he invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The statute allows the
president to impose temporary levies for 150 days. Any extension requires
congressional approval.
The president was scathing in his
remarks against the Supreme Court decision, calling the ruling “ridiculous,
poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American” in a social media post.
He also attacked Justices Neil
Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett after they voted with the majority in the ruling.
----On Friday, stocks rallied initially
following the Supreme Court decision, before pulling back and then recovering
again. Investors expect the ruling could allay tensions between the U.S. and
its trading partners, and possibly refund affected companies and reduce
inflation.
How the U.S. government will proceed
with refunds remains a question. By one estimate, the U.S. government
could owe more than $175 billion in
refunds to importers following the Supreme Court decision.
Trump to hike global tariffs to 15% from 10%, 'effective
immediately'
Australia examining ‘all options’ as
Trump vows universal tariff hike
Australia has responded to US
President Donald Trump’s latest tariff vow, with its trade chief saying “all
options” are on the table.
Joseph Olbrycht-Palmer February 22, 2026 - 2:45PM
The country’s trade chief says
Canberra is “working with our embassy in Washington to assess implications and
examine all options” after Donald Trump vowed to hike his universal tariff to
15 per cent.
The US President’s pledge on Sunday
(AEDT) came after the US Supreme Court struck down his signature trade policy.
“Based on a thorough, detailed, and
complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily
anti-American decision on Tariffs issued yesterday, after MANY months of
contemplation, by the United States Supreme Court, please let this statement
serve to represent that I, as President of the United States of America, will
be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries … to
the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level,” Mr Trump posted on social
media.
At reporting, the new rate had not
been officially implemented.
Australia had avoided the worst of
Mr Trump’s tariffs, with its rate kept at 10 per cent – the lowest in the
world.
But it was unclear whether
Australian producers would be captured by the new hike if it were to manifest.
“Australia believes in free and fair
trade,” Trade Minister Don Farrell said.
“We have consistently advocated
against these unjustified tariffs.
More
Australia mulling examining ‘all options’ as Trump vows
universal tariff hike | Sky News Australia
US businesses clamor for refunds
after supreme court strikes down Trump’s tariffs
Refunds were not addressed by
supreme court ruling, and they’ll likely play out in lower courts over extended
period
Sat 21 Feb 2026 16.20 GMT
Top associations of American
businesses are demanding to be repaid for Donald Trump’s tariffs following Friday’s supreme court ruling.
The US National Retail Federation,
which represents a number of US retailers, from Walmart to small brands and
manufacturers, called for “a seamless process to refund the tariffs to US
importers”.
“The refunds will serve as an
economic boost and allow companies to reinvest in their operations, their
employees and their customers,” it said.
The US Chamber of Commerce, too,
called for swift return of an estimated $133bn in collected tariffs covered by
the ruling. Its chief policy officer, Neil Bradley, said: “Swift refunds of the
impermissible tariffs will be meaningful for the more than 200,000 small
business importers in this country and will help support stronger economic
growth this year.
“We encourage the administration to
use this opportunity to reset overall tariff policy in a manner that will lead
to greater economic growth, larger wage gains for workers and lower costs for
families,” he added.
The supreme court did not address
the issue of whether the Trump administration would
have to repay the tariffs it has collected since the US president upended the
global economic order by slapping wildly varying levies on different countries
apparently at a whim.
The court said Trump had exceeded
his authority, but it also left lower courts to sort out the issue of
repayments, which many observers say could be a mess, particularly given that
Trump immediately attempted to reintroduce 10% tariffs on all countries via a
different law after the ruling on Friday.
Dan Anthony, director of the
business coalition We Pay the Tariffs, noted that the impact of the tariffs has been particularly
hard on small businesses, which have taken out loans, delayed hiring and
canceled expansion plans to accommodate import tariffs.
Refunds, he predicted, would allow
businesses to reverse those trends.
The body published a national sign-on letter that
said it was “imperative that that money is then given back without some of
these onerous processes”.
“Full, fast automatic refunds is
really where our focus is going to be,” it added.
“They’ve taken out loans just to
keep their doors open. They’ve frozen hiring, canceled expansion plans, and
watched their life savings drain away to pay tariff bills that weren’t in any
budget or business plan,” the statement said. “But a legal victory is
meaningless without actual relief for the businesses that paid these tariffs.”
The American Apparel and Footwear
Association called on the Customs and Border Protection agency, which levies
import duties, to “move quickly and provide clear guidance to American
businesses on how to obtain refunds for tariffs that were unlawfully collected”.
But without a framework, and Trump’s
apparently intention to impose tariffs by other legal means, refunds are likely
not an immediate prospect.
At a testy news conference on
Friday, Trump said it was “crazy” that the court justices had not addressed the
issue of refunds. “It’s not discussed,” he said. “We’ll end up being in court
for the next five years.”
More
Consumer
class action lawsuits anyone?
In other news, welcome to India.
Chaos, confusion and $200 billion dreams: What I
saw at India’s AI summit
Published Sat, Feb 21 2026 3:50 AM EST
India hosted one of the world’s biggest AI
events this week, but it was marred by chaos and confusion, apparently not the
message it’s trying to send as it strives to become a leading artificial
intelligence player.
Despite the drama, U.S. tech firms in
particular couldn’t resist the temptation of the Indian market, talking up the
country’s AI potential and making a number of announcements.
I have been on the ground in New Delhi
since Monday and I can honestly say that the AI Impact Summit has been one of
the most challenging reporting assignments of my career.
Traffic has been a nightmare more than
usual in the Indian capital. There were times it didn’t move at all. On
Wednesday, I had events and interviews at three different hotels and getting
the team around to these appointments on time was a real challenge.
At one point on Thursday, were weren’t
even sure if we’d be able to enter the Bharat Mandapam, the venue where the
summit took place. That’s because instructions were not clear on when media
would be allowed in on Thursday when Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated
the event.
We eventually found out we could enter at
6 a.m. local time. When we turned up, security did not let us in until later,
not before a crowd of media had gathered at the gates. Inside, security were
giving out conflicting instructions.
Several delegates expressed to me their
frustrations over the organization of the summit.
The event itself was marred by other
controversies. Bill Gates, who was named in the Epstein files, was scheduled to
give a keynote address. There was then uncertainty if he would even turn up.
The Gates Foundation had said earlier in the week that he would give the
speech, but then on Thursday said the billionaire had
pulled out.
Meanwhile, a university was reportedly
kicked out of the summit for suggesting a robot dog they were showcasing was
its own creation. A professor at Galgotias University told state-run
broadcaster DD News that the robot, which was actually made by Chinese firm
Unitree, was “developed” by the academic institution.
Online users called out the university,
highlighting that the robot was made by a Chinese firm. The university denied
claiming it had built the robot.
“We would like to clearly state that the
robotic programming is part of our endeavor to make students learn AI
programming and develop and deploy real-world skills using globally available
tools and resources, given developing AI talent is [the] need of the hour,” the
university said, according to media reports.
Indian IT minister Ashwini Vaishnaw
apologized on Tuesday for the “problems” on day one.
Then, there was the hand-holding moment
that went viral between two AI giants. Modi had delegates on stage with
everyone holding hands. But OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario
Amodei didn’t do as they
they’d been instructed, in a moment that instantly got scrutinized across
social media. Altman later explained that he was “confused” and wasn’t sure
what he should be doing.
Days earlier, Anthropic ran a Super Bowl
ad taking digs at
OpenAI’s decision to
test advertisements in ChatGPT.
India’s lure
Despite all of these moments, the event
pulled in a who’s who of tech names from Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai to Altman,
all of whom talked up India’s advantages from a huge talent pool to a large
consumer market.
“The excitement here, it’s just been
incredible to watch,” Altman told me.
These tech firms used the week to make
announcements and form partnerships around India.
OpenAI said it would be the first customer
of Tata Consultancy Services’ data center business. Google announced
partnerships with researchers and education institutions for its Gemini
artificial intelligence feature.
More
Chaos and $200
billion dreams: What I saw at India’s AI summit
Tech giants commit billions to Indian AI
as New Delhi pushes for superpower status
Published Sat, Feb 21 2026 2:30 AM EST
Tech giants have committed to funneling
hundreds of billions of dollars into Indian AI efforts, against the backdrop of
a major summit in the country that’s brought together world leaders and AI
execs.
Record sums are being ploughed into AI as
governments and companies across the globe race to roll out the technology.
Hyperscalers — including the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet — announced capital
expenditure that could hit $700 billion on AI this year.
The past week has seen Indian tech
group Reliance reportedly
announcing plans to invest
$110 billion into
data centers and other infrastructure, and compatriot Adani outlining a $100 billion AI
data center buildout
over the next decade.
There were also big announcements from
U.S. tech firms.
Microsoft said at the Indian AI Impact
Summit that it was on pace to invest $50
billion in
AI in the Global South by the end of the decade. OpenAI and chipmaker AMD both announced partnerships with
Tata Group to build AI capabilities, and U.S. asset manager Blackstone also said it
had participated in a $600 million equity raise for Indian AI infrastructure
Neysa.
More
Tech giants commit
hundreds of billions of dollars to Indian AI
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Walmart CFO warns of 'hiring recession' as GDP disappoints — is a 2026
recession coming?
February 20, 2026
Walmart WMT CFO John
David Rainey doesn’t mince words, citing a “hiring recession,” rising
student loan delinquencies and trade uncertainty as reasons for a cautious
FY2027 outlook.
Despite Walmart beating
on revenue and EPS, the stock is down nearly 9% over the last 5 days.
More unsettling details were buried in the CEO comments.
The majority of Walmart’s
market share gains came from households earning over $100,000, while those
below $50,000 are “managing spending paycheck to paycheck.”
When America’s discount
retailer is being carried by its wealthiest shoppers, the broader consumer
picture looks shakier than the headline numbers suggest.
The GDP Print
One day later, the
Commerce Department confirmed the nerves were warranted.
Q4 2025 GDP came in at
just 1.4% annualized, less than half the 2.9% Wall Street expected, and a cliff-drop from
Q3’s 4.4% surge.
Overall, the economy grew
2.2% in 2025, the slowest annual pace since the pandemic.
Federal government
spending collapsed 16.6% in the quarter, taking over a percentage point off the
headline number.
The 43-day government
shutdown takes most of the blame, and most economists expect a bounce in Q1.
But with Q4 already at
1.4%, just one quarter of negative growth would put the U.S. on the doorstep of
a technical recession.
What Traders Are Pricing
Polymarket’s “U.S. recession by end of 2026?” market is currently priced at 23%, up slightly from yesterday.
Polymarket traders are
still relatively optimistic about Q1 2026 growth, with the chance of 1.5%
growth or less priced at just 18%.
Despite the soft print,
don’t expect the Fed to ride to the rescue. The March Polymarket gives a
94% chance of no change, meaning rate cuts remain firmly off the table for
now.
Oxford Economics expects
the shutdown drag to reverse in Q1.
If recession fears fade
with it the massive capital expenditures required for AI infrastructure could
face fewer macroeconomic headwinds.
That would reinforce the
‘soft landing’ narrative that’s been quietly underpinning AI-adjacent names,
and stocks like Palantir Technologies PLTR and Nvidia NVDA, which have priced in a
resilient macro environment, could get a tailwind.
Walmart CFO warns of 'hiring recession' as GDP disappoints — is a 2026
recession coming?
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Graphene Manufacturing Group and Tickford Racing Unite to Push
Performance Efficiency On and Off the Track
Fri, February 20, 2026 at 12:55 PM GM
Brisbane, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. -
February 20, 2026) - Graphene Manufacturing Group Ltd. (TSXV: GMG) (OTCQX:
GMGMF) ("GMG" or the "Company") is delighted to announce a
new partnership with Tickford Racing, bringing together two high-performance
organisations to celebrate a shared obsession: turning small, hard-earned gains
into potentially big competitive advantages. As part of this partnership,
Tickford Racing, one of Australia's leading Supercars teams, will trial GMG
liquid graphene products including G® LUBRICANT and THERMAL-XR® as detailed
below, display the GMG logo on its race cars, promote GMG on its website and in
social media and host track/pit customer events.
This collaboration marks an exciting
milestone for GMG as it showcases how graphene-enabled technologies can be
explored in one of the most demanding and visible performance arenas in the
world — top-tier Supercars racing. The partnership recognises motorsport as a
stage where preparation, innovation and execution are publicly tested at pace,
and where every marginal gain matters.
Tickford Racing and GMG will celebrate
this shared performance mindset through a "test, learn and scale"
approach — starting with targeted trials, capturing real-world performance
data, and building credible proof points that have the potential to extend
beyond the circuit into everyday industrial applications.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it
everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”
Groucho Marx, attributed.
