Saturday, 14 March 2026

Special Update 14/03/2026 Trouble, Trouble And More Troubles Galore. Updated.

Baltic Dry Index. 2028 +56    Brent Crude 103.14

Spot Gold 5020                           Spot Silver 81.34

U S 2 Year Yield 3.73 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.880 trillion

US GDP 31.234 trillion

“President Trump threw a hand grenade into the global economic system a year ago with his erratic tariffs. Now he’s thrown another hand grenade with this unprovoked war in Iran.”

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz 

8:00 AM Update.

As the Gulf war escalates, a ground war in eight to ten days? Qui bono?

US hits military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island as war escalates

Published Mar 14, 2026, 07:20 AM Updated Mar 14, 2026, 09:36 AM

WASHINGTON - President Donald Trump said the US had bombed military targets on a critical Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf and threatened additional strikes targeting oil infrastructure if Tehran continued to block energy flows, in the latest escalation of the two-week conflict that has upended the region.

He said the US had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East,” including destroying military targets on Kharg Island.

Mr Trump, writing in a social media post, added that “for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island,” though he warned Iran that he would immediately reconsider that decision if they interfered with ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He also told reporters earlier on March 14 that the US would continue its campaign as long as necessary, while also insisting “we’re way ahead of schedule”.

He also suggested the US Navy would begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz “very soon”.

The 14th day of the war marked the largest attacks yet against the Islamic Republic, with the US and Israel hitting around 15,000 targets since the war began, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said. 

In Iran, officials were defiant.

----The US is also sending the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Middle East, a voyage that is likely to take at least a week.

The unit has up to 2,400 troops and its command vessel, the USS Tripoli, carries a squadron of F-35 fighters, V-22 Ospreys and helicopters. 

Brent crude settled above US$100 a barrel for the second straight session, ending the day at the highest level in more than three years while US crude futures settled near the highest since July 2022.

Millions of barrels of oil remain trapped in the Persian Gulf and traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a standstill. 

Efforts by the Trump administration and other governments to tame soaring energy costs for consumers have so far had little effect.

Asian countries are grappling with shortages of cooking gas and road fuel. In the US, gasoline prices at the pump are already at the highest levels in about two years.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on March 12 said the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

----The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of millions of barrels of oil a day, causing what the International Energy Agency described as the biggest hit to global supply on record.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have all had to curb crude output.

The price surge has also been felt at US gas stations, where the average cost of a gallon of gas at the US pump has risen to US$3.63, the highest since May 2024, according to American Automobile Association data.

Several back channels have opened between Tehran and US allies in recent days about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter, but they were downbeat the attempts would succeed.

An Italian government official separately denied reports on talks with Iran.

Meanwhile, CNN reported Iran was considering allowing a limited number of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan.

US hits military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island as war escalates | The Straits Times

3:00 AM update.

Week three of the war to bring back global inflation to inflate away the US debt approaching 40 trillion fiat dollars.

Trouble, it’s said loves company, well it’s here in spades and it’s only going to get worse with each passing day the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

Wall Street Warning on Oil and Private Credit

For investors, it’s bad news all over thanks to the war and private credit.

March 13, 2026 at 10:32 PM GMT

The US-Israel war with Iran has triggered a major spike in oil prices. Violent rhetoric from Washington and threats of broader retaliation by Tehran have left no visible off-ramp in site. {Sight. Ed.] A diving stock market and worried consumers are facing down grim implications for unemployment and inflation across America— and indeed around the world.

For investors, it’s bad news all over. Throw in a budding private credit crisis, and you might just have an economic disaster on the horizon. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett on Friday zeroed in on two of its potential components—oil and private credit—when he warned that this current state of affairs reminds him of, you guessed it, 2008.

The strategist flagged how oil doubled to $140 a barrel by August 2008 from $70 in July 2007, accompanied by “subprime tremors” that eventually became a Wall Street-induced earthquake that nearly broke the global financial system.

For the moment, the market consensus is the Middle East conflict won’t last too much longer. And Hartnett said the issues with private credit aren’t systemic. But this is encouraging continued bullish positioning as investors bank on their view that policymakers always ride to Wall Street’s rescue. And that’s the kind of thinking that may remind one of 2008 as wellDavid E. Rovella

What You Need to Know Today

Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the second straight session, ending the day at the highest level of the international benchmark in more than three years. US crude futures lingered near their highest point since July 2022. Millions of barrels of oil remain trapped in the Persian Gulf and traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a standstill. In the US, gasoline prices are already at their highest levels in about two years.

Donald Trump meanwhile continued to issue threats against Tehran as the US and Israeli militaries bombed Iran and Lebanon. Almost 2,600 people have died in the war, most of them in Iran, latest tolls from officials and non-government agencies show. Almost 700 people in Lebanon have been killed by Israel, where it’s been targeting Iran-allied Hezbollah. Dozens of others have been killed across the region in retaliatory strikes by Iran.

Warning That It’s 2008 All Over Again: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Think Russian oil will calm the Iran conflict’s supply panic? Here’s what the math reveals.

Russian oil can reach markets fast. The Iran conflict’s supply fears, however, are much bigger.

Published: March 13, 2026 at 4:20 p.m. ET

The U.S. will temporarily allow Russia to sell oil that has already been loaded onto tankers at sea, freeing up 120 million to 130 million barrels of crude in an effort to calm markets rattled by the weeks-long conflict with Iran.

The move could bring some barrels back into circulation relatively quickly as one of the world’s major maritime passageways, the Strait of Hormuz, remains effectively shut.

However, analysts say the amount of oil involved in the brief sanction reprieve is insufficient to meaningfully ease the supply fears in the Persian Gulf that have seized global markets for the past two weeks.

“In global oil terms, that’s just over a day of worldwide demand,” Nigel Green, chief executive officer of deVere Group, told MarketWatch. “As such, it’s not a structural shift in supply,” he said of the Russian oil that would be brought online.

Still, what makes the Russian oil an intriguing development is speed. “These are barrels that already exist and in many cases are already at sea,” Green said, adding that the moment legal restrictions are eased, they can reach refineries in days or weeks.

The U.S. imposed sanctions on oil from Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department said it would authorize until April 11 the delivery and sale of crude and petroleum products from Russia that have already been loaded onto vessels at sea.

The sanctions relief will “rent some time” and ease some of the physical-market stress the global oil market has been under right now, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. It will not, however, see an end to the geopolitical fear bid in energy markets, he added.

“Only the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will truly eliminate the currently historic supply-side bid” that’s been leading to higher oil prices, Richey said.

More

Think Russian oil will calm the Iran conflict’s supply panic? Here’s what the math reveals. - MarketWatch

Cracks emerged in a resilient US economy before war in Iran sent oil prices rocketing

Updated 5:31 PM GMT, March 13, 2026

WASHINGTON (AP) — The highly resilient U.S. economy was already showing signs of strain even before the launch of the Iran war, data released Friday showed, underscoring the risks that rising gasoline and energy prices may pose.

The economy barely grew in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department said, as it cut its estimate of fourth-quarter growth in half. Consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, was anemic in January, as inflation remained sticky-high. Hiring has also ground largely to a standstill. And Americans’ outlook for the economy tumbled after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to a survey of consumer sentiment also released Friday.

Gasoline prices have raced closer to $4 per gallon during the war, squeezing many household budgets that are already under pressure. Many Americans will receive larger-than-usual tax refunds in March and April because of the passage of President Donald Trump’s tax cut law last year, but higher gas costs, if they persist, could soak up much or even all of those gains.

What’s more, the Dow Jones has now fallen for three weeks straight, possibly impacting the wealthier U.S. households that have helped prop up overall consumer spending as lower-income families pull back.

“Underlying inflation pressures were already rising ahead of the war in the Middle East and are set to intensify,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said. Some Federal Reserve officials could even push for a hike in interest rates at its meeting next week, she added, though the central bank will probably stand pat.

Mortgage rates have been rising since the conflict began, likely because investors expect inflation will remain high. That could further weigh on the U.S. housing market, which has been in a slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows.

More

The US economy stumbled as 2025 came to a close, new data shows | AP News
China orders immediate ban on refined fuel exports. It's Australia's biggest supplier of jet fuel

13 March 2026

China, Australia's largest supplier of aviation fuel, has ordered refineries to halt oil exports, in move that could put further pressure on airfares and will increase concern about a future shortage.

Australia mostly relies on imported jet fuel, with Chinese refineries accounting for 32 per cent of imports in 2025.  The supply supports airports and planes across the country. 

But on Thursday, four sources told Reuters that authorities in Beijing had ordered an immediate ban on refined ​fuel exports for March.

A day later, the move was confirmed by Aldric Chew, the head of oil pricing in Asia Pacific at data service Argus, according to the Australian Financial Review.

Mr Chew said the Chinese government had not issued an official statement but that emails to traders requested their 'understanding to postpone or cancel' cargo contracts. 

It is understood the halt would not impact Australians for a few weeks as tankers travelling from north-east Asia and India can take up to 25 days to arrive.

The Daily Mail has contacted the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) for comment.

The news comes 24 hours after Sydney Airport chief executive Scott Charlton claimed Australia was too reliant on overseas supplies, News Corp reported.

'(This) means the reliability of that 25-day supply depends on international shipping lanes, global refining capacity and geopolitical stability,' he told a conference.

'And when you look at the world today – with conflict in the Middle East and growing tension across global energy markets – you start to see why fuel security matters just as much as emissions.'

Petrol prices nationwide have surged to over $2 a litre, driven by the intensifying conflict involving Iran, the US, Israel, and other nations in the Middle East

Some regional areas in the country have reported fuel shortages.

More

China orders immediate ban on refined fuel exports. It's Australia's biggest supplier of jet fuel

Naval escorts would cap tanker transits at under 10% of normal volumes

By Richard Meade11 Mar 2026

NAVAL escorts for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would effectively cap the flow of tanker movements at just under 10% of normal volumes.

That figure could be significantly lower depending on Iran’s response and availability of naval assets. It would also be heavily contingent on any potential minesweeping operations should Iran deliver on previous threats to mine the strait.

While the US has repeatedly refused requests from the shipping industry to provide naval escorts since the Iranian conflict began on February 28, both US and European Union naval operations are being assessed.

Neither the US nor EU plans are yet at the stage of committing to a deployment of assets, however, a basic naval escort operation would need between eight to 10 destroyers to protect convoys of between five to 10 commercial vessels in each transit.

While the precise number of transits per day will be contingent on the capacity of available naval assets, multiple security agencies and experts consulted by Lloyd’s List have confirmed that a convoy scheme that clusters up to around five to 10 vessels moving under protection is the only viable option to meaningfully resume transits.

Given the length of the transit and that it will be difficult to simultaneously operate convoys in both directions given the narrowness of the strait, any escort system would severely restrict the volume of ships passing through.

Estimates vary, but the consensus across eight well-placed security experts from both naval and commercial operations indicate that a best-case scenario would see just under 10% of the normal flow of 45-50 tankers daily transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Any scheme will almost certainly first prioritise outbound transits, not least because the willingness to take the risk of transiting with US support is likely higher among owners and operators with vessels trapped in the MEG. Protection for inbound vessels would likely only be introduced gradually.

It is also likely that tankers will be given priority over all other vessels and, depending on the detail of who is running the escort service, affiliation to the countries involved in any escorts by flag, ownership, operator, management, chartering arrangements will likely play a part in prioritisation.

Whether such escorts emerge, however, remains unclear.

While US President Donald Trump’s first stated on March 3 that the US was prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway, no such escorts have materialised.

Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, on Tuesday afternoon declared that the US Navy had “successfully escorted” an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, only to delete that announcement, forcing the White House to confirm that no escort had happened.

The response from US navy officials continues to be that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced.

Infomarine On-Line Maritime News - Naval escorts would cap tanker transits at under 10% of normal volumes

Deutsche bank highlights private credit risks as portfolio grows

Posted on March 12, 2026 Last updated: March 13, 2026

FRANKFURT, March 12 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank said on Thursday that its private credit portfolio grew around 6% to nearly 26 billion euros ($30.05 billion) in 2025 as it highlighted risks to the headline-grabbing sector.

Annual Report Disclosure

The disclosure, made in the bank's annual report, comes as investor worries mount for the $2 trillion industry over deteriorating credit quality.

Investor Concerns and Sector Risks

"Failures of a select number of sub-prime lenders in the U.S. increased investor focus on risks associated with private credit and raised wider concerns around underwriting standards and fraud risk," Deutsche Bank said.

Deutsche said it applies "conservative underwriting standards" to its portfolio, which rose from 24.5 billion euros in 2024.

Risk Exposure and Regulatory Oversight

Germany's largest lender said it was not exposed to significant risks but "the bank could face potential indirect credit risks through interconnected portfolios and counterparties".

Regulatory Concerns

Regulators have flagged concerns about banks' exposure to private credit in part because disclosures are scant.

Sector-Specific Risks

Private credit has been marred by concerns about deteriorating credit quality and exposure to the software sector - an industry ​seen as ripe for disruption by advances in artificial intelligence.

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In other news, with no Persian Gulf aluminium supply reaching the global economy, price rationing of available supply has taken hold.

Aluminium: Middle East risks keep market tight – ING

03/12/2026 11:30:28 GMT

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report LME Aluminium trading near four-year highs as Middle East conflict-driven supply risks support prices. Rising cancelled warrants and accelerating stock withdrawals point to growing physical tightness, particularly at Port Klang. They argue Aluminium remains structurally tight versus other base metals, suggesting limited downside despite broader macro headwinds.

Supply risks and tight stocks support prices

"LME aluminium prices edged higher, trading around four-year highs, as supply disruption risks linked to the Middle East conflict support the market. The situation remains unstable, leaving aluminium highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and keeping volatility elevated."

"Signs of physical tightness are becoming increasingly pronounced. Cancelled warrants jumped by 96,050t to 178,600t earlier this week, the largest daily increase since May 2024."

"This lifts cancellations to around 40% of total LME aluminium inventories, up sharply from just 9% at the start of the month."

"Aluminium remains structurally tight relative to other base metals. Accelerating stock withdrawals suggest the downside should remain limited despite broader macro headwinds."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Aluminium: Middle East risks keep market tight – ING

Mercuria to withdraw nearly 100,000 tonnes of aluminium from LME as Middle East supply disrupted, sources say

By Pratima Desai March 11, 20263:49 PM GMT Updated March 11, 2026

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Commodity trader Mercuria plans to withdraw large volumes of aluminium from LME warehouses, according to three sources, as the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz freezes Middle East shipments and further strains supplies in Europe and the United ​States.

The Middle East produces about seven million metric tons of primary aluminium annually, or around ​9% of the global total.

The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to ⁠the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has stalled aluminium shipments since last week.

More, subscription required.

Mercuria to withdraw nearly 100,000 tonnes of aluminium from LME as Middle East supply disrupted, sources say | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

March 13, 2026

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period.

For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace.

According to the BEA, the downward revision came due to adjustments in consumer and government spending and exports. A decline in imports, which technically subtract from GDP, also was less than the previous estimate.

On the inflation side, readings for January were mostly in line with estimates, though they showed price increases running well ahead of where the Federal Reserve would like.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's primary forecasting tool for inflation, posted a seasonally adjusted gain of 0.3% for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.

Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. Fed officials focus more closely on the core reading as a better indication of longer-run trends. The core reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Though the numbers are dated, they nonetheless provide a snapshot of inflation pressures heading into the Supreme Court decision that voided many of President Donald Trump's tariffs that he exercised under provisions in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Economists generally assumed that tariffs had added about half a percentage point or a bit more to inflation trends.

The report also predates the early March attacks that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran. Energy prices have surged in the nearly two weeks since the conflict began, with the Brent crude international benchmark touching $100 a barrel Thursday.

Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

Mortgage rates rise on global concerns: Mortgage and refinance interest rates today

Updated Thu, March 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM GMT

Mortgage rates rose this week to above 6%, mirroring market concerns about war, volatile gas prices, the possibility of renewed inflation, and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve meets next week to announce its decision on short-term interest rates. Currently, Wall Street traders expect the Fed to remain on hold through at least September.

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 11 basis points to 6.11% for the week ending on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 15-year loan rates increased by 7 basis points to 5.50%.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage returned to last month’s level of 6.11%,” Sam Khater, chief economist of Freddie Mac, said in a release. “Despite the modest uptick, buyers are responding to rates in this range, with existing-home sales increasing 1.7% in February. Purchase applications also increased this week, a welcome sign as buyers enter spring homebuying season.”

Even with rising interest rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association confirmed that home loan activity is increasing, with a 10% increase in overall purchase volume through March 6. Refinancing remained flat.

The 10-year Treasury topped 4.20%, up from nearly 4% at the month's start.

“The result was a round of lender reprices for the worse that felt larger than usual, not because of a single headline, but because several market mechanics moved against mortgage pricing at the same time,” veteran mortgage industry analyst Rob Chrisman said in a note to clients.

Mortgage rates rise on global concerns: Mortgage and refinance interest rates today

Trump may claim the war is ‘complete,’ but Wall Street expects the Fed to stay hawkish long after the conflict has ended

Wed, March 11, 2026 at 4:39 AM PDT 

While President Trump managed to calm markets somewhat this week by saying the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is “very complete, pretty much,” those assurances from the Oval Office will likely do little to unwind the hawkish stances of the world’s central banks.

The conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices spiralling to more than $100 a barrel over the weekend, with consumers in the 
Western world panic-buying supplies. Oil and energy prices are a key factor in inflation expectations for households, and the reality of any price surges in the commodity increases readings for core inflation data.

This is the concern of a central bank, many of which are mandated to keep prices stable. In countries like the U.S., the Fed even has an inflation target of 2% to maintain. Already, sticky inflation is ahead of where the Federal Reserve would like to be: The latest CPI reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was 2.4% over the past 12 months, with some categories, such as food and energy services, well above that level.

Any upward pressure impacting the finances of households and businesses will work against calls for a lower base rate—an argument President Trump and his cabinet have been making for the past year.

But Trump is likely to be disappointed. Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry say that even if the war in Iran does quickly draw to a close, it will be months before central banks feel confident its inflationary impacts have subsided.

“Pres. Trump’s suggestion that the war will resolve ‘very soon’ may have been merely a reflection of Iran’s degraded capacity to fight back, rather than a tactical retreat by the U.S.,” the duo observed in a note to clients this week. “If so, we can still expect hostilities will wind down, but around month-end, and not now.

----Question marks over the pass-through of higher oil prices to consumers will loom large at the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate-setting meeting next week. The factors contributing to the rise in oil prices are also not easily rectified: Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf through which exports from the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq all flow. Shipmasters are now nervous to sail through it.

As well as sourcing insurance guarantees for shipmasters, the White House has offered military escorts to ships along the strait in order to keep the route open. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed on social media yesterday that a U.S. Navy vessel had escorted an oil tanker down the Strait, though this post was later deleted with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later confirming the military had not provided such an escort.

“Almost all [central banks] will tilt to the hawkish side of the rhetorical spectrum while oil prices stay high,” added the Macquarie strategists. They continued: “We would expect that this more ‘hawkish’ disposition persists even after hostilities end, largely because the data may continue to point to inflationary pressures (and hence a shift in public expectations) throughout the period in which inflation may show up in the data—i.e., through the May reporting cycle.”

More

Trump may claim the war is ‘complete,’ but Wall Street expects the Fed to stay hawkish long after the conflict has ended

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Approx. 4 minutes.

Electric School Bus Fire in Vermont Destroys Four Buses

Electric School Bus Fire in Vermont Destroys Four Buses

Why are household batteries dangerous in waste?

11 March 2026

Household batteries, including those found in vapes, toys, headphones and car key fobs, are now one of the biggest and fastest-growing causes of fire in household waste and recycling in the UK.

The States of Guernsey said about 40 separate fire incidents at island waste facilities had been caused by hazardous items including batteries in the last four years.

Recently a Guernsey mother who accidentally threw away toys containing batteries was told she faced a £11,500 fine, later reduced to £1,000.

Faye Grime, Island Waste's director, has shared the reasons why batteries should not be put in waste or recycling and how to dispose of them properly.

Lithium-ion batteries are the growing cause of fires , external according to the Environmental Services Association.

When batteries are discarded in general waste or standard recycling bins, they can be punctured or crushed by heavy machinery during collection or processing.

A lithium battery mixed in with other recycling was thought to have caused a large fire which ripped through a recycling centre in Guernsey in 2018.

skip fire at Guernsey's Household Waste & Recycling Centre in 2025 was also thought to have been caused by an incorrectly disposed item.

Why are batteries dangerous in waste?

"If a battery comes into the waste, it's an immediate risk of fire because if a battery is not handled correctly it can spark and that can cause thermal runway and then create a fire risk," said Grime.

"It's obviously imperative that we safeguard our employees, our customers, any visitors on site, and we want to minimise any risk to them.

"So throwing batteries in your waste is never the right thing to do. It's always posing a danger and should always be disposed of in the correct way.

"It's imperative that everyone really, really checks their waste carefully to make sure there are no batteries in their waste."

How should I dispose of batteries safely?

"There are collection points for batteries at the Household Waste & Recycling Centre and at our sites," said Grime.

"You can call any of our telephone numbers on our website and we're more than happy to help the public dispose of their batteries in the correct way.

"Once we have the batteries... we can properly make sure they are recycled in the correct way and they're exported off island for careful recycling in the UK."

What should I do with items that have hidden batteries?

"Vapes have become a really, really big problem that's arisen in recent years," said Grime.

"Vapes have got batteries in them, and people aren't always aware of that.

"Batteries are in all sorts of things you wouldn't necessarily expect, car keys, toys, anything that you would plug in and recharge at home, or your small household electrical appliances, they usually have batteries in them as well.

"So it's really important that the general public check everything before they throw it away.

"Usually there'll be a symbol on the item to show that there's a battery inside.

"Double check before you throw your rubbish away, really try hard to make sure that there are no batteries in your rubbish at all."

More

The hidden fire risk of throwing batteries in your bin - BBC News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

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Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

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This weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten great.  Approx. 8 minutes.

J. D. Heinichen - Seibel 225 - Flute Concerto in D major

J. D. Heinichen - Seibel 225 - Flute Concerto in D major

Next, Iran’s latest missile. Approx.8 minutes.

This Iranian missile exploded in the sky - and 80 smaller ones fell out

This Iranian missile exploded in the sky - and 80 smaller ones fell out | Watch

Finally, the Chagos islands, and Diego Garcia.  Approx. 14 minutes.

Why Britain Still Owns This Island

Why Britain Still Owns This Island

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz has spelt out a dire warning: the war against Iran will usher in the four horsemen of economic apocalypse, namely “higher oil prices, higher food prices, economic downturn and chaos. The negatives are very clear.”

Friday, 13 March 2026

Friday The Thirteenth. PCE Day. A Long War?

Baltic Dry Index. 1926  +46    Brent Crude 100.12

Spot Gold  5102                           Spot Silver 84.32

US 2 Year Yield 3.75 +0.11

US Federal Debt. 38.876 trillion

US GDP 31.231 trillion.

The Dow Jones consensus calls for the headline PCE to have gained 0.3% on a month-to-month basis and 2.9% from 12 months earlier. The estimate for core PCE, which excludes energy and food prices, is anticipated to have gained 0.4% for the month and 3.1% from a year earlier.

It looks like we’re in for a long war. Time to fill up the car, cut back on driving, and hope the Saudis can get their east-west crude pipeline up from about 5 mbpd to closer to its capacity of close to 7 mbpd.

But even if they can, it’s only an extra 2 mbpd v the shut-in missing about 20 mbpd in the Persian Gulf.

Things in the global economy are about to get ugly fast from here. Look away from those soaring US Treasury long yields now.

Asia-Pacific markets tumble as investors brace for a prolonged war in Middle East

Published Thu, Mar 12 2026 7:54 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday as oil prices soared on renewed fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further crimp energy supplies, stoking fears of a global economic downturn.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a late Thursday speech that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade, should remain shut and that Tehran could open other fronts in the war if the conflict persists.

Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Alireza Tangsiri, also doubled down on the threat in a social media post, warning of “the harshest blows to the aggressor enemy.”

Bettors on prediction market Kalshi raised their wagers that the U.S. economy may enter a recession this year, with the likelihood climbing to 32% — highest level this year.  

International benchmark Brent crude jumped 9.22% to close at $100.46 per barrel on Thursday. It was the first time Brent closed above $100 since August 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 9.72% to settle at $95.73.

Oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term as investors price in the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict, Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday.

But he expects prices to ease towards the end of the year as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to resume. “By December, that [oil] supply will be better, will be higher so if you can make it in December, you will be able to buy oil much cheaper.”

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast Brent to average $98 per barrel in March and April — up 40% from the 2025 average — before falling to $71 by the fourth quarter. In the event that oil flows through the strait are disrupted for one month, Brent will likely average higher at $110 in March before gradually falling to $76 by year-end, according to Goldman.

U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to downplay the rise in oil prices, saying that the U.S., as the world’s largest oil producer, stands to benefit from higher oil prices, while stressing that his priority would be blocking Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday night that the U.S. would temporarily allow the purchase of sanctioned Russian crude that is already at sea to stabilize energy markets, while framing the price spike as a “temporary disruption.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 0.3% in early Asia trade.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2% while the broad-based Topix fell 1.4%. Honda Motor plunged over 6%, the biggest drag on Nikkei, after the automaker forecast its first annual loss in almost 70 years.

South Korea’s blue chip Kospi slumped almost 3% and the small-cap Kosdaq shed nearly 2%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 0.2% while mainland China’s CSI 300 index inched 0.3% higher.

Overnight in the U.S., major stock indexes notched closing lows for 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 740 points to settle below 47,000 for the first time this year.

The S&P 500 shed 1.5% to end the session at 6,672.62, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.8% to close at 22,311.98.

Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow inched down 0.03%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.21%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.12%.

Investors await key U.S. inflation data. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the personal consumption expenditures price index, due to be released on Friday, to have risen 2.9% year on year in January, and the core index is expected to have accelerated to 3.1%.

Asia-Pacific markets today: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng, CSI300

Dow tumbles more than 700 points as oil jumps, closing at new 2026 low under 47,000: Live updates

Updated Thu, Mar 12 2026 5:55 PM EDT

Stocks were under pressure on Thursday as oil prices added to their surge on supply disruption worries while the Iran war continued.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 739.42 points, or 1.56%, closing at 46,677.85. The S&P 500 lost 1.52% and settled at 6,672.62, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.78% to end at 22,311.98. All three indexes posted closing lows for 2026, and the 30-stock Dow ended the session below the 47,000 threshold for the first time this year.

Crude prices continued to climb after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed on March 9, said that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” West Texas Intermediate futures rose 9.72% to settle at $95.73 per barrel. Brent crude futures settled up 9.22% to $100.46 per barrel — its first close above $100 since August 2022.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC Thursday that the U.S. Navy is “not ready” to escort oil tankers through the Strait, though he said it will likely be able to do so by the end of the month. Traffic there has practically reached a standstill as the conflict in the Middle East escalates.

Overnight, three additional foreign vessels were hit in the Persian Gulf, according to authorities. That comes after three separate ships, including one in the Strait, had been struck Wednesday.

U.S. forces on Tuesday sunk 16 mine-laying Iranian ships near the Strait. Insurance company Chubb was announced as the lead underwriter for a U.S. government-led program to provide insurance to ships attempting to traverse the key passageway.

“Iran’s strategy of sowing economic chaos in the Gulf is working as tankers come under attack and Hormuz stays shuttered, pushing Brent up toward $100,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a note. “The U.S. and Israel have military dominance and Iran’s missile/nuclear programs may be degraded, but Tehran’s hardline [government] is firmly entrenched, and its plan now seems to be leveraging oil to push Trump further down an off-ramp.”

To help ease energy costs, Wright said late Wednesday that the U.S. will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It will take about 120 days to deliver the fuel.

The International Energy Agency also on Wednesday agreed to a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil in an effort to combat the supply disruption caused by the war. Oil prices remained higher in the previous session, however, amid worries that the conflict could be drawn out.

President Donald Trump earlier this week said that the war will end “very soon,” which had caused a reprieve in surging oil prices after they topped $100 a barrel.

“If energy costs and gasoline prices remain at current levels or rise for a period due to developments in the Middle East, it may weigh on consumer sentiment and push affordability issues to the forefront as we get closer to the midterm elections,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise.

“That said, overall consumer balance sheets remain in solid condition, income and employment conditions are currently sound, and inflation continues to ease in important pockets, namely shelter,” he continued. “Over time, if inflation continues to ease (outside of temporary energy impacts) and markets and the economy hold on firm footing, Americans’ attitudes about their ability to afford everyday life could improve.”

Despite the ongoing conflict, the S&P 500′s pullback has been relatively tame with the benchmark just more than 4% off its record reached in January.

Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were negative Thursday, with banks and tech stocks in the red. Morgan Stanley led financials lower after capping private credit fund withdrawals. Energy stocks, including Chevron and Exxon Mobil, were among the few stocks in the green.

Stock market news for March 12, 2026

CNBC Daily Open: A prolonged Iran war is on the horizon

Published Thu, Mar 12 2026 9:32 PM EDT

What you need to know today

The Iran war is showing no signs of easing, with Tehran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei saying Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz closure should continue as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” in his first public statement since being appointed. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, told Sky News that the U.S. Navy will begin escorting ships through the critical waterway as soon as “militarily possible.”

Khamenei’s comments sent oil prices soaring, with Brent crude closing above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022. Energy worries sent European and U.S. stocks lower, with the 30-stock Dow ending the session below the 47,000 threshold for the first time this year. Asia markets opened lower Friday.

Attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf have also intensified. Three more foreign vessels were struck Wednesday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, causing a small fire onboard, though all crew were reported to be safe. That comes after two foreign oil tankers were left ablaze in Iraqi waters after having been struck near the port of Umm Qasr, close to the city of Basra, Iraq.

Both sides also have hinted that the war could go on for longer. Iran has warned the world to “get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, said Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Amid fears of a long-drawn war, the U.S. temporarily authorized purchases of Russian oil stranded at sea to stabilize energy markets. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X Thursday that this “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” will not provide “significant financial benefit to the Russian government.”

With all signs pointing to a prolonged war that will continue to disrupt supply of commodities, markets and policymakers appear to be bracing for more impact.

CNBC Daily Open: A prolonged Iran war is on the horizon

Trump Removes Sanctions on Russia to Help Oil Flow Amid Iran Conflict

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was “unfortunate” that the move could benefit Russia, but maintained that it was only for the short term.

March 12, 2026

The United States on Thursday temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, allowing it to be shipped to buyers around the world as the Trump administration scrambles to contain energy prices that have been soaring because of the war in Iran.

The exemptions, which were issued by the Treasury Department, will be in place until April 11. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated that freeing Russian oil could add hundreds of millions of barrels of crude to global markets, curbing prices that have been hovering near $100 per barrel as a result of the Iran conflict.

The decision was a significant turning point in America’s effort to punish Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Russia has faced punishing sanctions from the United States and the rest of the Group of 7 advanced economies since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Those sanctions have included a price cap on Russian oil and a crackdown on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of unmarked vessels that oil exporters have used to evade sanctions.

As President Trump’s war with Iran has unfolded, his administration has looked for ways to mitigate the economic pain. His administration temporarily freed Russian oil last week that was sitting at sea and was set to be delivered to India. It is also in the process of offering a $20 billion maritime insurance backstop through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, an agency that generally lends to and invests in overseas companies and projects.

More

Trump Removes Sanctions on Russia to Help Oil Flow Amid Iran Conflict - The New York Times

The two oil pipelines helping Saudi Arabia and UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Published Thu, Mar 12 2026 8:52 AM EDT Updated Thu, Mar 12 2026 9:57 AM EDT

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly thrust two alternative oil pipelines into the global spotlight, one in Saudi Arabia and another in the United Arab Emirates.

The first is Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom’s eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The East-West pipeline is estimated to have a total design capacity of 7 million barrels per day, following recent expansions, and Saudi oil giant Aramco said earlier this week that it expects the network to reach full capacity over the coming days.

The second smaller pipeline is the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), or the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline. Spanning around 248 miles from onshore oil facilities at Habshan to Fujairah, the pipeline is estimated to handle 1.5 million barrels per day, with a reported total capacity of close to 1.8 million barrels per day.

Crucially, both alternate pieces of Gulf infrastructure bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil choke point which has been blocked since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.

---- Taken together, energy analysts said the East-West pipeline and ADCOP could help to partially offset the nearly 20 million barrels per day that typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of infrastructure damage amid the sprawling Middle East crisis, however, remains an ongoing challenge.

“Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already increasing utilisation of pipelines that bypass the strait,” Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at global trade intelligence company Kpler, told CNBC by email.

“In the UAE, we estimate the 1.5 mbd ADCOP pipeline is operating at 71% utilization, leaving around 440,000 [barrels per day] of spare capacity. ADNOC can temporarily raise throughput to 1.8 mbd if required,” Das said.

---- “The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) allows crude exports to bypass the Strait via Fujairah, but refined products from the Ruwais complex still largely depend on tanker routes that transit Hormuz,” Srivastava said Thursday.

“As a result, UAE refineries may still need to adjust product exports or manage inventory build-ups if maritime flows remain restricted,” she added.

---- “The longer this conflict goes on, the more these storages fill up and there’s nothing to do but production cuts,” Sasha Foss, energy market analyst at Marex, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Europe” on Wednesday.

He estimated that Iraqi oil production had fallen by as much as 70% due to the Iran war and warned that further production shut-ins could send oil prices even higher.

“When we see the likes of Saudi Arabia and UAE trimming, that’s when it is really going to hit global oil markets hard,” Foss said.

Two pipelines helping Saudi Arabia, UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Bahrain Airport rocked by huge explosion amid Iran attacks on Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar

12 March 2026

Smoke was seen billowing above Bahrain International Airport on Thursday as Iran continues to attack its neighbours in the Middle East.

It remained unclear whether the tanks reportedly hit were part of the airport's kerosene facilities or a different site, local reports added. Reuters agency confirmed "plumes of smoke rising from the vicinity of Bahrain International Airport". Other local reports said air defense systems were active over the airport near the capital Manama and the city of Muharraq, describing "an impact and large fire near Bahrain International Airport, with claims that a fuel depot was struck".

The country's Interior Ministry (MOI) said on X that authorities were taking necessary measures following the attack. It then confirmed the "fuel tank attack" and said: "MOI assures citizens and residents living in the areas surrounding the site of the fuel tank attack in Muharraq that they can resume their normal lives and open their windows." It also said the relevant authorities, and Civil Defence have "successfully contained the fire resulting from the Iranian aggression, and cooling operations are currently underway".

In Bahrain, an Iranian missile also struck the 405,000-barrel-per-day Sitra refinery operated by Bapco Energies on 5 March. The country was also targeted last week, when a fire broke out at the BAPCO oil facility in Bahrain after an attack from Iran, the country's Ministry of Interior said. At the time, "limited damage" was reported, but no casualties.

There are also reports indicating an attack on Dubai International Airport, where a large tower next to the Address Hotel was reportedly struck by a drone.

Recently, Iran started a series of attacks in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes on the country, with a focus on U.S. allies in the Gulf hosting American military bases like Bahrain.

On Tuesday, Abu Dhabi's authorities responded to a fire at the Ruwais Industrial Complex after a drone attack. Officials said the blaze broke out at one of the facilities within the industrial site following the strike.

In Kuwait, debris injured workers at the 346,000-barrel-per-day Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Meanwhile, Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco shut its 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March after debris from intercepted drones fell on the facility, which was targeted again on 4 March.

Bahrain Airport rocked by huge explosion amid Iran attacks on Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar

Asia rolls out four-day weeks and work-from-home as emergency measures to solve a fuel crisis caused by Iran war

March 11, 2026, 10:02 PM ET

Closed schools. Work-from-home demands. Price caps.
Asia’s governments are scrambling to manage a fuel shortage caused by high oil prices and a closed Strait of Hormuz. Asia is particularly dependent on oil exports from the Middle East; Japan and South Korea respectively source 90% and 70% of their oil from the region.
The energy crunch is forcing governments to adopt more extreme measures to save fuel.

On March 10, Thailand ordered civil servants to take the stairs rather than the elevator, and to work-from-home for the duration of the crisis. It increased the air-conditioning temperature to 27 degrees Celsius, and will tell government employees to wear short-sleeved shirts over suits. (Thailand has about 95 days of energy reserves left, according to Reuters).

Vietnam also called on businesses to let people work-from-home to “reduce the need for travel and transportation.” The Philippines is pushing for a four-day work week, and has ordered officials to limit travel “to essential functions only.”

South Asia is getting hit hard too. Bangladesh brought forward the Eid-al-fitr holiday, allowing universities to close early in a bid to save fuel. Pakistan also instituted a four-day week for government offices and closed schools. India suspended shipments of liquefied petroleum gas to commercial operators to prioritize supplies for households, leading to worries from hotels and restaurants that they may be forced to close without fuel supplies.

Asian countries are also intervening more directly into fuel markets.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Monday said the country would introduce a price cap on petroleum products, and warned that the current crisis presented a “significant burden on the country’s economy.” Around 1.7 million barrels of Korea-bound oil has been held back per day due to the ongoing conflict, presidential policy advisor Kim Yong-beom noted during a March 9 press briefing.

Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s industry minister, didn’t rule out dipping into Japan’s national oil reserves on Wednesday, adding the country “will take all possible measures to ensure stable supplies of energy”.

On Monday, Indonesia’s finance minister said the Southeast Asian country would set aside 381.3 trillion rupiah ($22.6 billion) for energy subsidies and pay state energy firms like Pertamina to keep fuel and electricity prices affordable for its residents. 

Thailand plans to freeze cooking gas prices until May, and encourage consumers to use alternative energy sources, like biodiesel and benzene. Vietnam is also considering scrapping its tariffs on fuel imports. 

More

Asia rolls out 4-day weeks, work-from-home to solve fuel crisis caused by Iran war | Fortune

In other news, guess what. Just don’t tell President Trump.

Pentagon finds US was behind deadly strike which killed more than 170 Iranian schoolchildren

Published March 12, 2026 7:21am Updated March 12, 2026 8:00am

A preliminary investigation from the Pentagon found that the US was behind the strike on an Iranian school that killed 175 children.

The discovery comes days after President Donald Trump suggested Iran was behind the strike, which saw an American Tomahawk missile strike Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school.

The White House has not yet addressed the investigation’s findings, telling reporters in a press conference: ‘As The New York Times acknowledges in its own reporting, the investigation is still ongoing.’

Investigative group Bellingcat found a video which appeared to contradict Trump’s previous claim that Iran was behind the strike.

Experts cited satellite image analysis and said the school was likely struck amid a quick succession of bombs dropped on the compound.

The video shared by Bellingcat is a three-second clip of a video taken the day the school was struck and circulated on Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency.

The video shows a munition falling on a building, sending a dark plume into the air that mingles with smoke that likely came from earlier strikes on the compound.

Trevor Ball, a Bellingcat researcher, geolocated the video to a site near the school, something also done by the AP.

Ball identified the munition as a Tomahawk cruise missile, which only the US is known to possess in this war. It is the first evidence of a munition used in the strike.

US Central Command has acknowledged using Tomahawk missiles in this war and even released a photo of the USS Spruance, part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group located within range of the school, firing a Tomahawk missile on February 28.

When asked by a reporter on Saturday whether the US was responsible for the blast, which killed mostly children, Trump responded, without providing evidence: ‘No, in my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.’

Janina Dill, an expert on international law at Oxford University, wrote that even if the strike was a misidentification – and the attacker believed that the school had been a part of the neighbouring IRGC base – it would still be ‘a very serious violation of international law’.

----Witnesses from the Red Crescent, which responds to emergency situations, said children were killed in a ‘double tap’ strike – where, after an initial strike, a second is fired to kill survivors and medics.

‘When the first bomb hit the school, one of the teachers and the principal moved a group of students to the prayer hall to protect them,’ a medic told Middle East Eye.

‘The principal called the parents and told them to come and pick up their children. But the second bomb hit that area as well. Only a small number of those who had taken shelter survived.’

More

Pentagon finds US was behind deadly strike which killed more than 170 Iranian schoolchildren | News World | Metro News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

John Maynard Keynes

U.S. economic outlook cut by Goldman over the Iran war — and the fear goes beyond oil

Every 10% rise in oil increases inflation by two-tenths, Goldman calculates

Last Updated: March 12, 2026 at 9:44 a.m. ET

First Published: March 12, 2026 at 6:46 a.m. ET

Things aren’t looking so great on the economic front 12 days into the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Not only did oil prices again touch triple-digit levels, there are worries about supplies of everything from fertilizer to helium, important not just for party balloons, but semiconductor production.

Goldman Sachs economists Manuel Abecasis and David Mericle in a new research note looked at the economic implications of the Iran war on the U.S. economy. 

And, to be clear, the main risk really is oil. “The main transmission channel from the war with Iran to the U.S. economy is the price of oil,” they said. Goldman’s oil team just raised their forecasts for the second time in little over a week, now expecting the Brent contract  to average $98 for March and April – up 40% from the 2025 average.

Their rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% increase in oil boosts the inflation rate by 0.2 percentage points, and the core inflation rate by 0.04 points. Similarly, a sustained 10% rise in oil lowers GDP growth by a tenth, though that could be tempered depending on how domestic producers respond.

The impact of tighter financial conditions also weighs on the economy. For every 1 percentage point tightening in their financial conditions index, GDP growth is hurt by 1 point over the following year. So far, Goldman’s financial conditions index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points.

But the economy can be impacted by more than just swings in financial markets. The Goldman team cite Federal Reserve research that higher geopolitical risk weighs on both hiring and capital expenditure. When the shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously -– like right now – the impact is twice as large. Higher geopolitical risk and oil prices also weigh on consumer confidence, although only briefly, the research finds.

More

U.S. economic outlook cut by Goldman over the Iran war — and the fear goes beyond oil - MarketWatch

Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge

March 11, 2026

March 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street banking giant Morgan Stanley has limited redemptions at one of its private credit funds after investors sought to withdraw almost 11% of shares outstanding, a regulatory filing showed on Wednesday.

A flurry of bad news following several credit issues in recent months has drawn fresh scrutiny to the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, as investors question the health of loan portfolios and the resilience of borrowers in a higher interest rate environment.

Morgan Stanley Private Credit said in a letter to investors that the North Haven Private Income Fund (PIF) returned roughly $169 million or about 45.8% of investors' tender request for the quarter.

The Wall Street powerhouse signaled that the private credit industry faces several challenges, including uncertainty around an M&A recovery, speculation about credit deterioration and a contraction in asset yields.

Morgan Stanley said the PIF was invested in 312 borrowers across 44 industries as of January 31, and that credit fundamentals at the fund remain broadly stable.

"As marketed and consistent with the disclosure in our private placement memorandum, we will be fulfilling tender requests for 5% of units outstanding, as of December 31," the bank's investment management arm said in the letter.

Morgan Stanley added that limiting withdrawals will help avoid asset sales during "periods of market dislocation" and maximize risk-adjusted returns for investors over time.

"Dispersion between stronger and weaker credit is increasing," it said.

PRIVATE CREDIT FEARS GROW

Fears that AI could erode the earnings power of software companies and weaken their ability to repay loans are rippling through private credit, a key lender to the technology sector, prompting investors to reassess exposure, redemption risks and fundraising prospects, analysts have said.

Concerns have been compounded by renewed troubles at Blue Owl over asset sales, triggering a sharp selloff in shares of alternative asset managers with a footprint in the private credit market.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase has reduced the value of some loans ‌to private credit funds after reviewing the impact of market turmoil around software companies, two people familiar with the situation told Reuters on Wednesday.

Analysts still point to JPMorgan ‌CEO Jamie Dimon's warning in October of "more cockroaches" lurking in the credit market as a potential source of investor anxiety, even though the issues so far do not appear to be systemic.

Earlier this month, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, disclosed that it has limited withdrawals from a flagship debt fund after a surge in redemption requests.

Alternative asset manager Blackstone on March 2 also disclosed that its ​private credit fund, known as BCRED, faced a surge in withdrawals in the first quarter.

Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge

Is The Private Credit Party Over?

Mar. 12, 2026 7:15 AM ET

Are there cockroaches still crawling around? Private credit fears are on the rise again as major funds reveal redemption pressures and banks move to cut their risk tied to the sector. It's also creating a big dilemma for the industry, whose loan holdings and values are quite opaque and cannot offer immediate liquidity due to long-term investor capital. Private credit crisis is a result of 'really bad underwriting'

Backdrop: The modern private credit industry opened for business after the global financial crisis, as all types of caps and limits were slapped on banks. Private credit firms emerged, and initially funded loans to businesses that weren't able to access financing, but these higher interest rates ended up being highly attractive to many investors. As funds piled in from institutions, private equity firms like Blackstone (
BX) and Apollo (APO) set up their own credit shops. Lending expanded to larger companies to fund everything from data centers to AI startups, and the products were eventually marketed to the retail crowd.

Eye on the shadows: As long as defaults are low, private credit can be a lucrative investment, with double-digit returns on lending. The problem is that there 
is not much insight into how the entire market is leveraged and how much risk is being taken on to underwrite new loans and capital. If things also go south in a sector that is highly funded by private credit, like an AI disruption to software companies, it can also have knock-on effects on the entire system. Apollo aims to mark private credit daily, eventually

Red flags first appeared 
in the fall after auto parts maker First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings went bankrupt. Things escalated last month, as redemption requests spiraled at direct lender Blue Owl (OWL), while BlackRock (BLK) later curbed withdrawals from one of its largest private credit funds. Now, JPMorgan (JPM) is reportedly marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups, and Morgan Stanley (MS) and Cliffwater have restricted redemptions at their multibillion-dollar private credit funds. Cliffwater gets redemption requests totaling 14%

Moment of reckoning? "Liquidity never matters until it matters" is the famous investing maxim, and so far, there has only been redemption pressure, not a full-blown private credit crisis. While banks have largely moved away from direct riskier lending, they do finance private credit firms indirectly in the form of business loans. As of now, it looks like broader panic has been contained, though there can be significant losses in the sector, as there are in any credit cycle.

Is The Private Credit Party Over? | Seeking Alpha

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Perovskite solar cell breakthrough hits among top reported efficiencies

March 10, 2026

A flexible perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell has reached a certified 29.88% power conversion efficiency, placing it among the highest recorded results for this class of device and bringing the technology within striking distance of the 30% threshold. The result, reported in a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Communications, was achieved on a device with an aperture area of 1.04 square centimeters and a steady-state efficiency of 29.2%. For an industry that has spent years trying to push thin, bendable solar cells past the mid-20s in efficiency, the gap between lab promise and practical performance just narrowed considerably.

How the 29.88% Figure Was Reached

The team behind the result built a monolithic tandem cell that stacks a perovskite absorber on top of a silicon base, a design that lets each layer capture a different portion of the solar spectrum. Perovskite materials are prized for their ability to absorb specific wavelengths very effectively, and the U.S. Department of Energy describes these semiconducting compounds as a versatile family that can be tuned for high photovoltaic performance. Pairing a carefully engineered perovskite layer with crystalline silicon allows the combined device to convert more incoming energy than either material could alone, because the top cell harvests higher-energy photons while the bottom cell captures lower-energy light that passes through.

What distinguishes this device from earlier high-efficiency tandems is its flexibility. Rigid tandem cells have posted strong numbers before, but bending a multi-layer stack without cracking the perovskite or degrading the interface between layers has been a persistent engineering problem. The researchers addressed this through two specific technical strategies: achieving phase homogeneity within the perovskite layer and engineering stress release at the interface between the perovskite and silicon. In the Nature Communications report, accessible through the journal’s main article page, the authors describe how a uniform crystal structure reduces mechanical weak points while tailored interlayers help dissipate strain.

Phase homogeneity means the perovskite film maintains a consistent crystal phase across its area, rather than forming mixed domains that respond differently to stress. Inhomogeneous regions can act as crack initiation sites when the device is bent. By contrast, a single dominant phase distributes strain more evenly. At the same time, stress release at the interface prevents the mismatch in stiffness between perovskite and silicon from concentrating force in one narrow region. The team used compositional engineering and interface design to spread mechanical loads, allowing the stack to flex without severe delamination or fracture.

More

Perovskite solar cell breakthrough hits among top reported efficiencies

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and yet another war weekend and for what? In tomorrow’s update, Iran’s latest missile surprise and the story of Diego Garcia, the island not some poor Latin American. Have a great weekend everyone and don’t forget to fill up the car.

The study of economics does not seem to require any specialised gifts of an unusually high order.

John Maynard Keynes