War Week Two. Who Won, Who Lost?

Baltic Dry Index. 1919 -147    Brent Crude 87.13

Spot Gold  5210                         Spot Silver 88.41

US 2 Year Yield 3.57 +0.01

US Federal Debt. 38.868 trillion

US GDP 31.225 trillion.

'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.

Friedrich August von Hayek

Day twelve of the war to bring back global inflation. Time to assess early winners and losers.

The early big winners, oil and LNG producers outside of the Persian Gulf.

Iran, obviously, is an early big loser, but if the article below is accurate, maybe not as big a loser as we think.

But so is everyone who is an oil consumer in the global economy. Given the Persian Gulf’s importance in LNG production, aluminium and fertiliser production, other losers are consumers of LNG, aluminium and fertiliser.

Soaring jet fuel prices, diesel and petrol prices make losers of airline companies, shipping companies, trucking companies and eventually retailors as higher costs get passed along and consumers get forced into cutting back on purchases.

Asia-Pacific markets trade higher as investors weigh developments in the Middle East

Published Tue, Mar 10 2026 7:40 PM EDT

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.35% in early trade.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.36%, while the Topix added 1.22%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 3.2%, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.39%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 0.43%, while the CSI 300 added 0.19%.

Oil prices, which spiked to nearly $120 a barrel Monday at the height of fear around the Iran conflict, dropped from their height as traders believed a group of countries would tap emergency crude reserves to mitigate disruption caused by the conflict.

U.S. crude oil was last up 3.24% at $86.15 per barrel.

“The most immediate impact of an oil shock is that it acts like a tax on the economy. When energy prices surge, households spend more on fuel and utilities and less on everything else, which quietly slows consumer demand across the broader economy,” said David Johnson, CEO of financial services firm Vervent.

Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio surged more than 15% after the company reported a sharp improvement in fourth-quarter results, helped by surging deliveries, better product mix and cost cuts.

Fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries jumped 71.7% from a year earlier to 124,807 units, while revenue rose 75.9% to 34,650.2 million yuan ($4,954.9 million) and vehicle margin improved to 18.1% from 13.1% a year ago.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 fell slightly in choppy trading as oil prices pulled back and traders kept an eye on the Iran war.

The broad market index dropped 0.21% to end at 6,781.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 34.29 points, or 0.07%, and closed at 47,706.51. The Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.01% to settle at 22,697.10.

Earlier in the session, the Dow had dropped as much as 296.57 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, at their lows.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway

Published Tue, Mar 10 2026 11:49 PM EDT

Iran has continued to send large amounts of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran has jeopardized broader supplies through the critical waterway.

Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The firm monitors vessel movements with satellite imagery, allowing it to capture vessels that would otherwise go undetected if their tracking systems are switched off. Many vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran threatened to attack any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway.

Shipping intelligence data provider Kpler estimates around 12 million barrels of crude oil to have passed through the strait since the war started. “Given that China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude in recent years, a significant share of these barrels could ultimately head there,” said Nhway Khin Soe, crude analyst at Kpler, adding that confirming the final destination for these vessels had become increasingly challenging.

China’s National Energy Administration did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comments.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has been critical to the transportation of about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has seen shipping traffic slow to a trickle since the war started last month, with tankers largely avoiding the besieged waterway.

Ten vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz came under Tehran’s attack less than two weeks into the war, killing at least seven seafarers onboard, according to the International Maritime Organization.

Oil tankers transiting through the Strait “must be very careful,” a spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in an interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday.

Three of the six tankers captured on satellite imagery that have departed Iran since Feb. 28 were Iranian-flagged, said Madani.

As oil prices have soared on supply disruption fears, U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade that ships stranded near the passageway need to “show some guts” and push through the channel. “There’s nothing to be afraid of, they have no Navy, we sunk all their ships,” Trump said.

Alternative exports outlet?

Kharg island terminal, located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran, has long been the country’s primary oil export facility, handling around 90% of its crude exports before tankers travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments.

An Iranian vessel was loading 2 million barrels of crude oil — only the fifth such loading there in the past five years, according to TankerTrackers.

The renewed activity at Jask signals that Tehran is exploring alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, though the extent to which it can serve as a viable route for shipments remains uncertain, said Soe.

The Jask oil facility — Iran’s only crude export outlet on the Sea of Oman that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely — has rarely been used as it appears far less efficient.

Loading a single Very Large Crude Carrier, a class of supertanker built for long-haul oil transport, can take up to 10 days, Madani said. “It has good domestic propaganda value, but not much in terms of a logistical advantage.” For comparison, a VLCC takes about one or two days to load in the Kharg Island.

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Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway

Soaring fuel prices expected to cast long shadow across US economy

Industries from farming to airlines face long-term higher costs and will raise customer prices in response

11 March 2026

The US energy department has warned petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to recede to prewar levels until mid-2027 at the earliest, ratcheting up costs for industries from trucking and farming to airlines and retailers.

Official figures released on Tuesday show US petrol prices rose 19 per cent over the past two weeks to $3.50 a gallon as the Middle East conflict throttled energy supplies, while diesel jumped 28 per cent to $4.86 a gallon.

Petrol is not forecast to drop back below its $2.94 per gallon pre-conflict level before the end of 2027, according to the Energy Information Administration, the energy department’s statistics arm. Diesel — the lifeblood of American industry — will not fall below the $3.81 per gallon it sat at two weeks ago until the middle of next year.

The shift threatens to push up costs for industry, which in turn will ratchet up prices for consumers with far-reaching inflationary impacts.

It will also pile pressure on Donald Trump, who campaigned for the presidency in 2024 on a platform to slash petrol and energy costs. Prices at the pump are now higher than at any time during his two terms in office.

“We’ve got a lot of costs moving their way through the system,” said Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst. “We’re looking at some really scary inflation ratings — pervasive inflation throughout the country.”

The rise in the price of refined fuel products in the US comes as Iran’s threats to strike ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz have all but halted maritime traffic in an artery through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows.

That has prompted crude prices to surge, with West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rising from $61 a barrel before the conflict started to a peak of almost $120 in intraday trading on Monday before falling back. The US benchmark fell 11.9 per cent to $83.45 on Tuesday.

But the impact on fuel prices is set to endure, with sweeping implications for American business and consumers.

The trucking industry, among the most exposed to diesel price fluctuations, said companies would pass much of the increase on to consumers.

“Higher diesel costs . . . remain one of the trucking industry’s largest expenses,” said Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations. “Luckily, most carriers have fuel surcharges so they recoup much, although generally not all, of those expenses from their customers.”

Brian Wanner, owner of trucking group Peters Brothers, said there was “no way” his business could survive without the surcharge.

“Margins are slim in this industry and trucking has been struggling for the past three years, so if you’re not protected it’s not good,” said Wanner, whose business uses more than 1mn gallons of fuel a year.

For farmers, the rise in fuel costs comes just as the industry prepares to plant corn and soyabeans — important inputs to the food, livestock and biofuels industries.

“Farmers [are] facing increased volatility in fertiliser and fuel prices as well as some reports of companies freezing fertiliser sales,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation.

In the US, diesel accounts for a relatively small part of a farmer’s budget, said Gary Schnitkey, professor of farm management at the University of Illinois, but it will feed through to other costs given its use to run farm equipment and haul crops.

“So transportation costs and the costs of other products will go up. It will cause another round of inflation in input prices,” Schnitkey said.

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Soaring fuel prices expected to cast long shadow across US economy

As the Iran war upends energy flows, Russia is emerging as the real winner

Published Tue, Mar 10 2026 5:17 AM EDT

Russia is shaping up to be a major beneficiary of the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran, as higher oil prices and temporary sanctions relief boost the value and volume of its crude exports, analysts told CNBC.

The Middle East conflict has rattled global energy markets, sending oil prices sharply higher amid fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. 

“Russia stands to gain revenue from higher oil prices, especially as the U.S. has relaxed restrictions on selling Russian crude to India,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

Oil prices surged over $100 per barrel on Monday as traders priced in the risk that conflict in the Gulf could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Even as oil fell about 7% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict with Iran could end soon, prices are still around 27% higher compared to before the war started.

For Russia, which remains one of the world’s largest oil exporters despite Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, the price rally directly translates into stronger state revenues.

Henning Gloystein, managing director for energy and resources at Eurasia Group, said Russia has “already hugely benefited” from the crisis after Washington granted India a temporary waiver allowing it to continue purchasing Russian crude.

“Cargoes have been sold around $90 per barrel, so this is a large increase in price and sales volume for Russia,” he said, compared to around $50 from before the Iran war.

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Russia is emerging as the real winner as Iran war upends energy flows

There’s another big reason why shipping companies and insurers aren’t willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 6:08 PM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 6:33 PM EDT

Global insurers, brokers and shipping companies are concerned about an environmental catastrophe if an oil tanker sinks in the Persian Gulf.

It’s a massive risk in a region that stretches from Kuwait to Qatar — an area of glittering high-rise buildings, posh beachfront resorts and booming commercial centers. Its incredible wealth and shift toward tourism is a dramatic change from the late 1980s, when a tanker war between Iraq and Iran threatened the oil trade in the Persian Gulf.

What the region doesn’t have is the kind of sophisticated oil clean-up industry and technology that is readily available in the United States, according to a risk advisor who asked not to be named.

That expensive pollution risk has not yet been addressed by the global insurance market, which doesn’t have the data to calculate business disruption claims should a massive oil spill contaminate destination beaches.

Pollution is offered under marine insurance, which also includes coverage for ships’ hulls, machinery and cargo.

Expensive coverage

Hull, machinery and cargo coverage has remained available to shipping companies, even after missiles began flying. But it was expensive — 4-6 times more than the previous week, according to Marsh and Howden Group, two leading global insurance brokers.

Still, sources tell CNBC that President Trump’s commitment to insure tankers and get commerce moving helped reassure the market that the U.S. government would provide appropriate supports.

But the Development Finance Corporation’s rolling $20 billion reinsurance facility, for now, is only intended as a backstop for hull, machinery and cargo — with no mention of essential pollution coverage.

The DFC told CNBC Monday more details would soon be available about the program.

But in the meantime, the pollution risk and potential shutdown in business is considered the kind of unknowable or uninsurable risk that the U.S. faced from terrorism in the aftermath of 9-11. The government then stepped in to create TRIA (Terrorism Risk Insurance Act) in 2002 to help insurance carriers manage catastrophic terrorism risk.

Sources say that without that kind of backstop for environmental risk a kind of quagmire will continue to clog commerce in the Persian Gulf.

One big reason ships and insurers are unwilling to risk Strait of Hormuz

In other news.

The U.S.-Iran war is the biggest oil supply disruption in history

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 9:43 AM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:35 AM EDT

The U.S. war against Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, more than double the previous record set during the Middle East crisis of the 1950s, according to an analysis by consulting firm Rapidan Energy.

About 20% of the world’s oil supply has been disrupted for nine days now as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill. Crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel in response.

The biggest disruption before the current war was during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, the energy consulting firm told clients in a Sunday note. In that crisis, about 10% of the world’s oil supply at the time was disrupted.

The disruption triggered by the closure of the Strait is nearly three times the size of the shock caused by the Arab oil embargo of 1973, Rapidan analysts told clients. The Arab embargo disrupted about 7% of global supplies.

The big difference between the supply shock of the Iran war and past crises is the world has no spare oil capacity to address the problem, the analysts said. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hold the overwhelming majority of swing capacity but they have been cut off from the global oil market by the Hormuz closure, the analysts said.

“The conflict has not only taken offline a historically high share of global supply – it has simultaneously disrupted the primary holders of spare capacity,” the Rapidan analysts said. “The result is a market with no meaningful cushion. There is no swing producer positioned to step in.”

This means that the global oil market will need to balance by destroying demand through sharply rising oil prices, the analysts said. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is “finite and insufficient to fully offset” the supply bottled into the Persian Gulf due to the closure of Hormuz, they said.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently has 415 million barrels, about 58% of its total authorized capacity of 714 million barrels, according to the Department of Energy.

A White House official told CNBC on Friday that the Trump administration believes “the oil markets remain well supplied and if we need to take additional action, we will do so.”

Member states of the International Energy Agency will come under pressure to release their strategic stocks because this is “the only remaining supply response option,” the Rapidan analysts said.

The U.S.-Iran war is the biggest oil supply disruption in history

Trump promised to fill America’s oil reserves ‘right to the top.’ A year later, oil has exceeded $100 and they’re still less than 60% full

Mon, March 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT

In January 2025, the newly elected President Donald Trump declared a “national energy emergency” during his inaugural address. His proposed remedy included a pledge to refill the country’s emergency petroleum reserves.

“We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world,” Trump said.

The president didn’t set a deadline for himself to do so—but in retrospect, an expedient one might have been useful. A little over a year after his declaration, the U.S. is heavily involved in a conflict in the Middle East that has left a hole in globally traded petroleum supply and caused U.S. gas prices to jump. And the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a supply buffer designed to mitigate price shocks by stockpiling emergency stores of crude oil, remains nowhere near full.

The reserve currently holds 416 million barrels of crude oil, out of a maximum capacity of 714 million barrels—around 58%, according to the Department of Energy’s latest inventory report from Feb. 18. Since Trump began his second term, the reserve’s volume has only risen by around 5%.

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Trump promised to fill America’s oil reserves ‘right to the top.’ A year later, oil has exceeded $100 and they’re still less than 60% full

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

The Iran war has put the brakes on the next Bank of England rate cut

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:02 AM EDT

Before the war in Iran erupted, the Bank of England was widely predicted to be on course to cut interest rates at its meeting next week.

But the U.S. and Israel’s attack on major oil producer Iran, and the turmoil engulfing the wider Middle East as the war escalates, have put the brakes on a March rate cut, economists have predicted.

“BoE cuts are possible in the first half of 2026, but March is off the table and April requires a clear calming of geopolitical tensions,” Allan Monks, chief U.K. economist at JPMorgan, said in emailed analysis.

“For now we delay the next cut to April, but the risks are already shifting towards a lengthier pause and larger growth impact,” he added.

Economists were confident that the central bank’s policymaking committee, the MPC, would lean toward a rate cut to stimulate the British economy amid lackluster growth, a weakening jobs market, and a downward trend in the inflation rate.

The war has damaged oil and gas infrastructure and led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime corridor, jeopardizing global supplies and driving up energy prices.

The meeting on March 19 is likely to be overshadowed by heightened uncertainty around the trajectory of energy prices and their impact on the inflation and growth outlook, Anna Titareva, European economist at UBS Investment Bank, said on Monday, predicting policymakers would prefer “to wait for more clarity and stay on hold” in March.

“With the geopolitical situation remaining highly uncertain, we think that by the time of the March meeting, the MPC will not be able to determine the nature of the shock with sufficient certainty,” she said.

While the BOE could look through “short-lived shocks,” larger and more persistent shocks could require a monetary policy response, she said.

UBS forecast that the next rate cuts were now due in April and July, rather than March and June. “That said, we see significant risks to our baseline depending on the developments in the Middle East and implications for energy prices,” Titareva said.

Energy price shock

The U.K. is highly sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices, given it imports around 40% of its oil supplies and up to 60% of its natural gas, 2025 data shows, despite having some dwindling oil and gas production of its own in the North Sea.

This makes energy price rises for consumers likely.

The U.K.’s inflation had been high but had been falling amid expectations that energy prices would fall in spring. The last inflation reading in January showed the rate of price rises had cooled to 3% in January, down from 3.4% the previous month.

That had spurred hopes that the BOE’s forecast for inflation to fall toward the bank’s 2% target was on track, and that a rate cut, from the current level of 3.75%, was warranted and just around the corner.

What comes next largely depends on how long the war on Iran lasts and the degree to which energy supplies are disrupted, economists say.

“The current spike in energy prices leaves the BOE with a real dilemma,” JPMorgan’s Monks noted.

“Still restrictive rates and an ongoing deterioration in the jobs market creates pressure for it to ease further.

“But the Bank now faces another wave of inflation barring a significant and rapid de-escalation in the Middle East,” he said, noting that the BOE had been “scarred by the stickiness of U.K. inflation versus other economies, and one vulnerability is the UK’s high dependence on natural gas.”

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The Iran war puts the brakes on next Bank of England rate cut

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Yet another battery fire. Approx.. 4 minutes.

Vape Shop Fire Destroys Glasgow’s Historic Train Station

Vape Shop Fire Destroys Glasgow’s Historic Train Station - YouTube

 Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The chief evil is unlimited government, and nobody is qualified to wield unlimited power.

Friedrich August von Hayek

 

War Week Two. War To End? An Oil Reserve Release?

Baltic Dry Index. 2066 +56     Brent Crude 92.62

Spot Gold  5177                          Spot Silver 89.25

US 2 Year Yield 3.56 unch.

US Federal Debt. 38.863 trillion

US GDP 31.222 trillion.

The good Lord didn't see fit to put oil and gas only where there are democratically elected regimes friendly to the United States. Occasionally we have to operate in places where, all things considered, one would not normally choose to go. But, we go where the business is.

Dick Cheney

Was that it? Did Monday’s surge in crude oil prices just cause President Trump to blink in his unnecessary, war on the Persian Gulf oil supply?

Backed into a corner of his own making, with US recession odds rapidly rising, hopefully so.

Certainly, markets, Bloomberg and other mainstream media seem to think so. But with an erratic US President who seems to change his mind every few hours, we’ll just have to see what tomorrow brings.

But with massive volatility in the stock casinos and oil markets, where are the losses piling up?

Oil Falls, Stocks Rise as Trump Changes Tune on War

After markets dived and oil neared $120 a barrel, Trump said the war with Iran might be over soon.

March 9, 2026 at 10:19 PM GMT

With markets diving and oil up around $120 a barrel to start the week, Donald Trump on Monday changed his tune about a war that—just days ago—he and his aides had said was just getting started, with the biggest strikes yet to come.

Having started the war along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president today appeared to be walking back threats to bomb other regions of Iran, as he threatened Saturday. Instead, the Republican signaled that the war could be ending soon, saying the campaign was now ahead of schedule. It was also disclosed Monday that Trump had spoken with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin about the war, their first call of the year.

Trump’s nod toward de-escalation was significantly different from what he wrote in the early hours of Saturday morning. In a social media post, Trump, 79, said the US will consider striking areas and groups of people in Iran that were not previously considered targets. “Today Iran will be hit very hard!” Trump said as the US and Israel were bombarding Tehran and other cities over the weekend. The attacks will continue, Trump wrote, “until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse!”

The news that Trump might instead end US hostilities sent a predictable wave of relief across markets, with stocks closing up and oil down to around $92 a barrel. Here’s your markets wrap. —David E. Rovella

Oil Drops, Stocks Rise as Trump Changes Tune on War: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Asia markets rebound as oil plunges after Trump signals Iran war might end ‘soon’

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 7:49 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi opened more than 5% higher Tuesday, leading a rebound in the region, after oil prices fell and Wall Street bounced back as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the conflict with Iran could be nearing its end.

Oil prices fell over 10% after Trump said he was considering seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important chokepoint in world for the crude market. Trump also told a CBS News reporter, who shared the comments in a post on X, that “the war is very complete, pretty much.”

International Brent crude was down 10% at $89.03 per barrel at 9.10 p.m. ET Monday. U.S. crude oil fell more than 9% to $86.05 per barrel. The declines came after oil surged past $100 on Monday.

The declines came after oil surged past $100.

“With 20% of world oil supply stopped, we have the largest interruption ever,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, in reference to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The biggest disruption before the current war was during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, the energy consulting firm told clients in a Sunday note. At that time, roughly 10% of global oil supply was disrupted.

Other Asia stock indexes also gained. The small-cap Kosdaq added over 4%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.35% in early trade.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.66%, while the Topix gained 1.3%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.56%, while the CSI 300 gained 0.9%.

Travel-related stocks also rebounded. Hong Kong-listed shares of Air China rose nearly 3%, while China Eastern Airlines added 2.9%. China Southern Airlines gained 2.85%. Singapore Airlines rose 1.54%.

Overnight in U.S. stocks advanced. The S&P 500 rose 0.83% to close at 6,795.99, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 239.25 points, or 0.5%, and ended at 47,740.80. The blue-chip index is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.38% and settled at 22,695.95.

Those moves mark an impressive turnaround from the losses seen earlier in the day. The Dow was down nearly 900 points at its session low, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had dropped as much as 1.5% each.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index

G7 energy ministers to meet Tuesday morning to discuss release of oil reserves, sources say

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 12:33 PM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 2:01 PM EDT

Energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations will hold a virtual meeting Tuesday morning to discuss a possible release of oil reserves to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, sources told CNBC.

G7 finance ministers met Monday to discuss a release of reserves but did not make a decision. The G7 members are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The talks between the G7 have been “positive,” the sources said. Any coordinated action on releasing reserves would occur after the energy ministers’ meeting, they said.

The U.S. believes a joint release of 300 million to 400 million barrels, representing 25% to 30% of the 1.2 billion barrels in the reserve, would be appropriate, sources told CNBC.

“We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release,” the G7 finance ministers said after their Monday meeting.

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel at their highs as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to threats from Iran. It is unclear when the strait may reopen again to traffic.

Prices pulled back Monday on the expectation that a release of oil reserves will occur. U.S. crude was last trading around $95 per barrel while global benchmark Brent was just under $100.

The closure of the strait has triggered the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to analysis from consulting firm Rapidan. About 20% of the world’s oil consumption is exported through the narrow waterway.

Unlike past shocks, there is no spare capacity to address the disruption because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are cut off from the global oil market due to the strait’s closure, Rapidan analysts said.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not sufficient to offset the supply bottled into the Persian Gulf, the analysts said. The U.S. reserve currently has 415 million barrels, about 58% of its total authorized capacity of 714 million barrels, according to the Department of Energy.

Member states of the International Energy Agency will come under pressure to release their strategic stocks because this is “the only remaining supply response option,” the Rapidan analysts said.

G7 energy ministers to meet Tuesday to discuss release of oil reserves: Sources

Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon,’ predicts lower oil prices

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 3:29 PM EDT

President Donald Trump at a press conference on Monday said the war against Iran will end “very soon,” and also said that oil prices will drop.

Trump’s rosy prediction came after a weekend that saw the price of oil skyrocket to above $100 per barrel, roiling global financial markets.

“We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective,” Trump said nine days after launching the war on Iran with Israel on Feb. 28.

Trump, who with his deputies has offered shifting explanations of what the war’s objective is, did not on Monday detail his end game, instead touting military successes.

“We’ve wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely,” the president said at his Trump National Doral club near Miami, where he touted the destruction of more than 50 Iranian naval ships, and decimation of its air force and anti-aircraft defenses.

“They have no leadership. It’s all been blown up.”

Asked if the war would end this week, Trump said, “No,” but added, “Very soon.” He proceeded to threaten further military action if he deems it necessary and said the U.S. has not yet hit some of Iran’s most sensitive targets, including its electricity infrastructure.

Earlier Monday, an Iranian official suggested that any oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for crude oil shipments, risked attack by Iran. Only a handful of commercial vessels are moving through the Strait, said Matt Smith, oil analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.

Despite that threat, Trump said oil supplies will be more secure for the world in the long run because of the war and threatened to hit Iran even harder if it withholds crude from markets. While most of the oil that moves through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asia, the U.S. depends on a global supply that is heavy on imports from Asia.

“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Trump said.

He also said that the war would be over when Iran no longer had the capacity to use weapons against the U.S., Israel and other allies for a long time.

Asked by a reporter to explain the difference between his prediction of a quick end to the war and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent comment that the war is just beginning, Trump said both could be true.

“It’s the beginning of building a new country,” Trump said. He has pledged to keep the U.S. out of another lengthy entanglement in the Middle East.

Trump said he is “disappointed” in Iran’s choice of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as the country’s supreme leader. But, when asked at the press conference, he declined to say he would seek to assassinate him.

Trump earlier Monday spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who reportedly shared proposals about the U.S. quickly ending the war.

At his press conference, Trump said Putin “was very impressed with what he saw” the U.S. do in Iran.

“This is an excursion a lot of other people wouldn’t have done,” Trump said. “This was a military success, the likes of which people haven’t seen.”

Trump says Iran war will end 'very soon'

Oil extends slide as investors assess Trump comments on Iran war, Strait of Hormuz

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 9:38 PM EDT

Oil prices plunged as much as 10% Tuesday before paring losses, as investors assessed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and oil flows via the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude was down around 4.3% at $94.62 per barrel as of 11.45 p.m. ET Monday. U.S. crude oil fell 3.8% to about $91 per barrel. The declines come after oil surged past $100 on Monday.

Trump who had signaled Monday that the conflict with Iran could end soon, sending oil prices lower, warned later in the day that Tehran would be hit “twenty times harder” if it attempted to halt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social Monday stateside.

Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait is a vital transit route for global energy markets. Roughly 13 million barrels passed through the waterway in 2025, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne oil flows, according to Kpler.

It connects major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

“This is a gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully, it is a gesture that will be greatly appreciated,” Trump said in his post.

The comments come as a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned on Monday that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz “must be very careful.”

----At a press conference on Monday Trump also said the war against Iran will end “very soon,” and oil prices will drop.

Trump comments have soothed nerves on the energy supply shock, and the disruption to oil flows.

“I think there’s a lot of optimism in the market,” said Bob McNally, president at Rapidan Energy Group. “We saw that today with the collapse in oil prices on what we used to call verbal intervention from the President.”

McNally said the market is still struggling to process the scale of the disruption, noting that for decades traders assumed no country would be allowed to shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

The fact that it has happened at all is “completely calamitous and unexpected,” McNally said, pointing that that even during the tensions of the 1980s the waterway was never fully closed. 

For now, markets appear to be betting the situation cannot last long and that navigation through the Strait will ultimately be restored, he added.

While Trump’s comments have lifted markets, Lipow Oil Associates’ President Andy Lipow said it was too early to draw concrete conclusions.

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Oil extends slide as investors assess Trump comments on Iran war

Why China can withstand oil’s surge past $100 more easily than other countries

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 3:06 AM EDT

BEIJING — Surging oil prices following the Iran war are expected to impact China less than in past years as the country has built large crude stockpiles and diversified its energy sources, including renewables.

As oil prices climbed past $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, OCBC analysts said China may be “less sensitive to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz than many of its Asian peers.”

“China has accumulated one of the world’s largest strategic and commercial crude reserves,” the analysts said, adding that its “rapid transition toward electric vehicles and renewable energy provides an additional structural hedge.”

China held an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude stockpiles as of January.

That’s about 3 to 4 months of reserves, which will delay the economic impact, Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

“China has taken the last 20 years to reduce some of its dependence on maritime oil flows,” Doshi said, noting that new overland oil pipelines and some diversification to renewables mean the country now only relies on the Strait of Hormuz for about 40% to 50% of its seaborne oil imports.

By 2030, China aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 25%, up from 21.7% in 2025.

The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and global shipping routes. It’s a narrow passage with Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. About 31% of the world’s seaborne oil flows passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, or around 13 million barrels a day of crude, according to Kpler.

However, oil shipments through the strait account for only 6.6% of China’s overall energy consumption, according to Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu.

Natural gas imports through the route account for another 0.6%, he said.

The shift reflects two decades of strategic transition, giving China a unique position in global energy markets.

The U.S. is the world’s largest consumer of oil, followed by China and India, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which was founded in 1960 to coordinate global oil supply.

But China is the largest crude importer, buying nearly twice as much as the U.S., while India ranks third, OPEC data showed.

Of the three, India is the most dependent on petroleum imports, accounting for one-fourth of its total consumption, according to CNBC’s analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data for 2023.

China was lower at 14%, while the U.S. produced most of its petroleum needs, according to the 2023 data, which includes “other liquids” in the petroleum category.

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Why China can withstand oil's surge more easily than other countries

In other news, though the US media love to cover the gasoline price, it’s the price of diesel that’s more important in driving US inflation.

U.S. Gasoline Prices, Rising Again, Are Now Up 17% Since Conflict Started

Interruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, source of much of the world’s energy, are trickling down to what American drivers pay when they fill up.

March 9, 2026Updated 6:36 a.m. ET

The price of gasoline in the United States jumped again on Monday as the war in the Middle East entered its 10th day.

The average price of U.S. gasoline reached $3.48 a gallon, according to data from the AAA motor club. That is a nearly 17 percent increase since the first U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. Gas hasn’t been at these levels since 2024.

The price of oil jumped above $100 on Monday after attacks intensified, and Iran said it was firing more missiles toward Israel in response to expanding U.S.-Israeli attacks.

The suddenly rising energy costs — everything from jet fuel to diesel for trucks and tractors is more expensive — are rooted in the supply of crude oil coming from the Persian Gulf. The tankers that normally carry oil out of the region are not sailing, cutting the world off from about one-fifth of its oil supply.

There are already big variations in how much drivers pay. Though oil prices make up the largest share of the cost of gasoline — about 60 percent — taxes, refining margins, and distribution costs can raise prices further. Drivers in California, for example, paid an average of $5.20 a gallon on Saturday, the highest in the country, while those in Kansas paid $2.92, the lowest.

Gasoline prices tend to respond to changes in oil prices with a lag of a few days to a week. Because refineries have to pay more for crude oil, they charge more for the fuels they deliver to gas stations, airports and other customers. As a result, fuel prices will most likely climb over the coming days, as long as oil prices remain elevated or rise further.

U.S. Gasoline Prices, Rising Again, Are Now Up 17% Since Conflict Started - The New York Times

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Recession odds jump on Kalshi after oil tops $100

Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 9:59 AM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:01 AM EDT

Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year as oil prices soar.

Kalshi’s market for whether the U.S. goes into a recession in 2026 jumped above 34% on Monday — its highest level since November, according to data from the platform. Late last week, the market had a likelihood for that outcome at under 25%.

Monday’s jump in recession odds follows the dramatic rally for U.S. oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark. Crude last passed that level in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Middle Eastern producers cut output in recent days with the key Strait of Hormuz passageway closed amid the U.S.-Iran war, raising concern about supply. West Texas Intermediate crude recorded its biggest gain on record last week as the conflict escalated.

Economists and analysts have warned that the economy could face serious consequences if oil remains above that milestone as higher gas and fuel prices hit consumer and business spending. Monday’s jump in oil prompted a selloff for stocks, signaling more pain ahead for investors after a tumultuous week.

Bettors on a separate Kalshi market predicted an 11% probability that the next U.S. recession begins in the first quarter of this year. Polymarket bettors anticipate a 31% chance of a recession by the end of this year.

Kalshi participants see a roughly 60% chance that the U.S. gas price exceeds $4 this month as crude rallies. The national average for regular gas came in at $3.48 on Monday, according to AAA.

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Recession odds jump on Kalshi after oil tops $100

Hidden danger of Iran war: Fertiliser crisis that could send food prices soaring

Last Updated: 09 March 2026, 02:59 PM IST

As tensions involving Iran escalate, attention has largely focused on the potential disruption of global oil and gas flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. However, beyond the immediate risk to energy markets lies another threat that often receives far less attention, a possible global fertiliser shock that could eventually drive food prices higher and disrupt farming worldwide.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime corridors, carrying a large share of global energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. But the narrow passage is also critical for the movement of agricultural inputs, particularly nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea and ammonia.

Roughly one-third of the world’s traded urea passes through this route. Major producers in the Gulf region, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, rely on the strait to export fertilisers produced using the region’s abundant and inexpensive natural gas resources.

If shipping through Hormuz were restricted or disrupted, the consequences would extend well beyond energy markets. Fertiliser shipments and the  liquefied natural gas used to produce them could face delays, rising transport costs, or even complete stoppages.

Why fertiliser matters for global food supply

Modern agriculture depends heavily on synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, which significantly boost crop yields. These fertilisers are produced through  a chemical process developed by German scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch in the early 20th century.

This process converts methane into ammonia, which is then used to manufacture fertilisers such as urea.  These products play a crucial role in maintaining the yields of staple crops including wheat, maize and rice that feed billions of people.

Without synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, global agricultural production would fall dramatically, making them a cornerstone of the modern food system.

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Iran conflict: Hormuz tensions could trigger global fertiliser shock, push food prices higher | Mathrubhumi English

China consumer inflation hits three-year high as producer deflation eases

Published Sun, Mar 8 2026 9:48 PM EDT

China’s consumer inflation recorded the biggest jump in more than three years, as an extended holiday bolstered spending while deflation in factory-gate prices moderated.

The consumer price index rose 1.3% in February from a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday, beating economists’ forecasts for a 0.8% increase in a Reuters poll. The increase, following a 0.2% rise in January, marked the strongest rebound since January 2023, according to LSEG data.

On a monthly basis, prices gained 1% in February, above economists’ expectations for a 0.5% rise.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 1.8% last month from a year earlier, matching the pace last seen in March 2019, according to official data compiled by Wind Information.

“The price hikes in the service sector during the Chinese New Year is stronger than market expected [and] whether this effect will be persistent beyond the holiday is not clear at this stage,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note Monday.

Service prices rose 1.1% last month from a year earlier, contributing 0.54 percentage points to the headline CPI, the official data showed, driven by demand for travel, pet care, vehicle maintenance, movies, and dining services during the holiday.

This year’s Lunar New Year holiday ran from Feb.15 to Feb. 23 — the longest on record — compared with eight days spanning late January to early February last year.

China’s producer price index slumped 0.9% from a year ago, better than economists’ expectations of a 1.2% fall, marking the slowest pace of deflation in more than a year, as surging costs for metals and commodities helped put a tentative floor under factory-gate prices.

At a top economic policy-setting meeting last week, China kept its annual consumer inflation target steady at “around 2%” for 2026. First set in 2025, it is the lowest level in more than two decades as Chinese policymakers sought to bolster domestic demand and rein in aggressive price wars sweeping across many industries.

The inflation target acts more as a ceiling than a target to be realized. In 2025, consumer prices were flat overall, while core inflation rose 0.7% as consumer confidence remained soft.

Beijing also lowered its GDP growth target this year to a range of 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious target on record since the early 1990s, as officials acknowledged persistent deflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

To bolster domestic spending, Chinese officials allocated 250 billion yuan ($36.2 billion) in this year’s fiscal budget to subsidize a consumer trade-in program — down from 300 billion yuan in 2025 — along with a 100 billion yuan government fund to support private investment and consumer spending.

“The pace [of these stimulus measures] will remain incremental,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, noting that while policymakers see weak consumption as a structural issue to be addressed, the need for “aggressive consumption stimulus is low” with exports and manufacturing seen to continue powering growth.

“The main swing factor is exports,” Hu said in a note last Thursday. “If exports remain strong, policymakers may continue to tolerate weak domestic consumption. Conversely, if exports falter, they will step up domestic stimulus to defend the GDP target.”

Geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have pushed up gold jewelry and gasoline prices in China by 6.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in February. Factory-gate prices for silver and gold refining jumped 16.9% and 8.4%, while prices for oil and gas extraction climbed 5.1%.

The Middle East war, which has shown little sign of easing, may continue to push China’s producer prices higher at least through March, said Zhang, warning that a prolonged conflict risks tipping the global economy into stagflation.

China may need to implement a more proactive fiscal policy than its budget, unveiled last week, if Middle East tensions fail to de-escalate in the second quarter, Zhang said.

China consumer inflation hits three-year high as producer deflation eases

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Why buy an EV now, if the battery technology is likely to change for the better soon?

Solid state: Why your EV battery could be worthless soon

Story by Rowan Calder March 8, 2026

The lithium-ion battery pack sitting under millions of electric vehicles on the road right now may be approaching a shelf life that has nothing to do with chemistry and everything to do with competition. Federal funding, corporate prototypes, and university research are converging on solid-state battery technology, a design that replaces the liquid electrolyte in conventional cells with a solid material. If solid-state delivers on its promises of faster charging, longer life, and higher energy density, the resale math for current EVs could shift dramatically.

Washington Bets $125 Million on the Next Battery

The clearest signal that solid-state technology has moved beyond lab curiosity is the money flowing from the federal government. The U.S. Department of Energy has directed about $125 million toward research on next-generation batteries and energy storage, establishing a clear federal priority around chemistries that go beyond today’s lithium-ion standard. Among the funded teams is the Energy Storage Research Alliance, led by Argonne National Laboratory, tasked with knitting together national lab, university, and industry expertise.

This program sits within a broader federal research ecosystem that includes the Department of Energy’s advanced projects work and tools such as the Infrastructure Exchange, which helps direct and track federal investments in energy-related projects. Together, these efforts form a pipeline that can move promising battery concepts from basic science through pilot-scale demonstrations and, eventually, into commercial deployments.

The scale of the $125 million investment matters because it signals intent, not just interest. This level of funding is designed for multi-year research hubs with specific mandates to push new battery designs toward commercial viability. For EV owners, it means the technology that could outclass their current battery pack is not a distant concept but an active, well-funded research program with institutional backing and defined milestones.

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Solid state: Why your EV battery could be worthless soon

 Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

In a world of increasing interdependence, energy security will depend much on how countries manage their relations with one another. That is why energy security will be one of the main challenges of foreign policy in the years ahead. Oil and gas have always been political commodities.

Daniel Yergin