By David
Randall , Svea Herbst-Bayliss
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some investors are betting the
technology and communications stocks that drove a massive rebound in U.S.
markets this year will face a tougher slog in coming months, no matter whether
Republican President Donald Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins
Tuesday’s election.
Betting against big technology has been a
risky proposition over the last decade, as stocks like Amazon, Google and
Netflix have shot higher at the expense of so-called value and cyclical stocks
such as banks and energy companies.
Recently, however, some fund managers say
they are growing alarmed by what they see as a consensus in Washington to
tighten regulations, and prospects that another large stimulus bill would bolster
a rotation out of tech and into other sectors including economically sensitive
value stocks.
“There will be a shift and it is starting,
but it will take time,” said Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation at Pacific
Life Fund Advisors, which cut its exposure to large-cap tech in September to
neutral from overweight.
Should Biden win as polls suggest,
technology companies could face higher tax rates and tax-motivated selling as
well as increased regulation, investors said.
Both Trump and Biden have criticized large
tech companies but stopped short of explicitly calling for them to be broken
up. Trump has said “there is something going on in terms of monopoly” when
asked about big tech firms.
Apple Inc AAPL.O MSFT.O AMZN.O FB.O GOOGL.O
Hedge fund
manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, a longtime tech bear, told clients
in a letter this week that tech stocks were in the middle of an “enormous
bubble” that popped when the S&P 500 hit its record high on Sept. 2, 2020.
Technology
stocks tumbled in the past week’s selloff, though earnings results from
companies like Facebook, Alphabet and Amazon have shown how the tech giants
expanded their businesses this year.
“It has
become more difficult for mega-cap tech to surprise on the upside,” analysts at
UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note Friday.
Some
investors pointed to recent hearings in Washington as a sign that increased
regulations will come to the sector no matter which party takes control in
Washington.
The Justice
Department’s lawsuit against Google in late October marked the first time the
U.S. government has cracked down on a major tech company since it sued
Microsoft Corp MSFT.O for anti-competitive practices in 1998.
“This may be
the only bi-partisan issue out there,” Pacific Life’s Gokhman said.
---- Potentially higher taxes under a Biden
administration are another worry. Biden has proposed increasing the corporate
tax rate to 28% from 21%, potentially weighing on companies’ earnings.
A separate
proposal to tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income could prompt
some investors to sell winners in order to lock in lower tax rates, analysts
said.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-street-week-ahead-big-tech-stocks-may-face-post-election-headwinds-no-matter-who-wins-idUKKBN27F31J
French economy now seen contracting
by 11% in 2020 - Le Maire October 30, 20207:34 AM
PARIS
(Reuters) - The French economy is now expected to contract by 11% in 2020,
compared to an earlier forecast for a 10% contraction, French Finance Minister
Bruno Le Maire told radio on Friday.
France’s new
national lockdown - imposed to try and curb a resurgence of the COVID-19
pandemic - is set to hit the economy as many shops and businesses have to close
up again, as they did during an earlier lockdown back in March.
However, Le
Maire reiterated he hoped France could get back to having decent economic
growth figures by 2021.
“From 2021,
we will be capable of being able to find once again growth figures, which will
be good growth figures,” he told France Inter radio.
Le Maire
said this week that the total cost of French financial support for companies
during lockdown will be 15 billion euros (13.6 billion pounds) for each month
of lockdown. The lockdown is due to last until Dec. 1, but could be extended.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-france-economy/french-economy-now-seen-contracting-by-11-in-2020-le-maire-idUKKBN27F0W5?il=0
Exxon, Chevron report more
losses amid weak oil demand Oct. 30, 2020 / 12:31 PM
Oct. 30 (UPI) -- Multinational oil giants Chevron and ExxonMobil each reported
significant losses for the third quarter Friday, due to steep revenue declines
brought on by COVID-19 .
Chevron reported a second consecutive quarterly loss after revenue
fell by 32% year-over-year, while ExxonMobil posted revenue declines of nearly 30%.
Chevron's
quarterly losses totaled $207 million and Exxon's $680 million.
"Third
quarter results were down from a year ago, primarily due to lower commodity
prices and margins resulting from the impact of COVID-19," Chevron
Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth said in a statement.
"The world's economy continues to operate below
pre-pandemic levels, impacting demand for our products which are closely linked
to economic activity."
"We remain confident in our long-term strategy and the
fundamentals of our business, and are taking the necessary actions to preserve
value while protecting the balance sheet and dividend," Exxon Chairman and
CEO Darren Woods said.
Exxon said Thursday it will lay off almost 2,000 workers
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/10/30/Exxon-Chevron-report-more-losses-amid-weak-oil-demand/3111604063487/
BP to close Australian oil
refinery, losses seen outlasting pandemic October 30, 20203:59 AM By Sonali
Paul
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - BP plc BP.L plans to stop producing
fuel in Australia and will convert its loss-making Kwinana oil refinery, the
biggest of the country's four, into a fuel import terminal because of tough
competition in Asia, the global major said on Friday.
BP is the
first of Australia’s four refiners to pull the plug on its plant in the wake of
this year’s slump in demand, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. Two rivals
have also flagged that they are considering the future of their plants.
BP said it
would wind down operations at the 146,000 barrels per day (bpd) plant in
Western Australia over the next six months, affecting 650 jobs, but did not say
how much the closure and conversion would cost.
Frédéric
Baudry, BP’s Australia head, said the refinery had been making “considerable
losses” even before the pandemic, and the company expected losses to persist as
the plant was unable to compete with huge refineries in Asia.
“COVID
perhaps has exacerbated the losses, but the economic fundamentals are one of
supply-demand in the eastern hemisphere,”Baudry told Reuters.
---- The company estimates that refinery
overcapacity in the region stands at 7 million to 8 million barrels per day.
“We don’t
see that being corrected for the foreseeable future,” Baudry added.
BP’s move is
a blow to government efforts to strengthen national fuel security and revive
jobs in the wake of the pandemic, through incentives of A$2.3 billion (1.3
billion pounds) to Australia’s four refiners to keep their plants open.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-australia-refinery-bp/bp-to-close-australian-oil-refinery-in-wake-of-pandemic-slump-idUKKBN27F0EB?il=0
Coronavirus, consolidation
taking toll on energy jobs October 30, 20205:07 AM By Jennifer
Hiller
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Oil and gas companies worldwide
are taking an axe to their employment rolls, shedding workers to survive what
is expected to be a prolonged stretch of weak demand.
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM.N said it will cut its
workforce by 15%, or about 14,000 people, along with oil majors Chevron Corp CVX.N and Royal Dutch Shell
Plc RDSa.L .
All told, more than 400,000 oil and gas
sector jobs have been cut this year, according to Rystad Energy, with about
half of those in the United States, where several big exploration companies and
most large oil service companies are headquartered.
Coronavirus has devastated swathes of the
global economy, with energy, travel and hospitality among the industries hit
hardest. Energy companies were already struggling with weak returns,
particularly those operating in U.S. shale regions, but have had to double down
on cost cuts as investors pressure companies to improve margins.
“The COVID-era reality across the oil
industry is austerity on an epic scale. There is no escaping the fact that this
means, among other things, job losses,” said Pavel Molchanov, analyst at
Raymond James.
In addition to Exxon, Chevron Corp,
Australia's Woodside Petroleum Ltd WPL.AX and Canada's Cenovus
Energy Inc CVE.TO all
announced plans in recent weeks to cut staff.
Global fuel demand slumped by more than a
third in the spring. While consumption has recovered somewhat, it remains lower
than a year ago with major economies resuming lockdowns to contain the
pandemic.
---- Currently, futures markets suggest
crude prices LCOc1 CLc1 may not advance beyond $40 a
barrel for at least two more years due to weak demand, and that could limit
hiring.
“The practical reality is when you have oil
prices in the $30 to $40 range, I don’t think many companies have the luxury to
wait for a recovery,” said Alex Pourbaix, chief executive at Cenovus.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-energy-jobs/coronavirus-consolidation-taking-toll-on-energy-jobs-idUKKBN27F0IE
“The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the
community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil.”
John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
This
week, England, UK, duelling coronavirus statistics. Imperial v Kings going to
the dogs. ONS figures different again!
"There are three kinds of lies: lies,
damned lies, and statistics."
Benjamin Disraeli.
Coronavirus infections rising
rapidly in England, REACT study shows by Justine
Alford 29 October 2020
An interim report led by Imperial College London and Ipsos
MORI, which includes tests taken between 16th and 25th October, shows that the
prevalence of infection has more than doubled since
the last round of testing , with 1.28% infected. This means an estimated 128
people per 10,000 of England’s population has the virus that causes COVID-19,
compared to 60 as of 5th October.
This corresponds to 96,000 new infections each day.
Infections have increased across all age groups and areas
of the country, with the North remaining the worst affected. Young people aged
18-24 continue to have the highest prevalence of infection but the steepest
rise was seen in adults aged 55-64, which saw rates triple compared to the
previous round.
The overall reproduction number (R) has increased to 1.6,
with infections doubling every 9 days, meaning that the epidemic is continuing
to grow across the country.
These findings from the REal-time
Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT 1) programme are available in
a pre-print report and will be submitted for peer-review.
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at
Imperial, said: “These interim findings paint a concerning picture of the
situation in England, where we’re seeing a nation-wide increase in infection
prevalence, which we know will lead to more hospitalisations and loss of life.
We’re also detecting early signs that areas which previously had low rates of
infection are following trends observed in the country’s worst-affected areas.
Now more than ever we must all work together to curb further spread of the
virus and avoid subsequent overwhelming of the health service.”
More
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/
COVID rates are not surging October 29, 2020
According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection
Survey figures, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the UK are continuing
to steadily increase and not surging as other sources have suggested this week.
Key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study
UK Infection Survey this week:
There
are currently 43,569 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 25 October (excluding care homes) This
compares to 36,251 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago Rates
in the North of England are still around four times higher than the South
of England although the gap is narrowing In
Scotland cases are potentially levelling off London
rates continue to climb in a steady linear fashion (see full table of
regional results below) The
doubling rate for cases is currently 28 days The
UK R value is 1.1 Regional
R values are: England 1.1, Wales 1.2 and Scotland 1.1 Infections
nationally have stopped increasing in children and are still rising
fastest in 30-59 year olds with only gradual increases in the over 60s
(see graph below) ---- Tim Spector,
Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King's College London, comments:
“While cases are still rising across
the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of
control, as has been recently reported from other surveys. We are still seeing
a steady rise nationally, doubling every four weeks, with the possible
exception of Scotland which may be showing signs of a slow down. With a million
people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates
are in line with the ONS survey.
“Data on covid-19 can be confusing
for the public and we can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths,
without putting them into context. Hospital admissions are rising as expected,
but deaths are still average for the season. As we become citizen scientists
it’s important to look at multiple sources to get a broader view. Trends can be
different at the local level and our app allows users to monitor this
themselves.”
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-rates-are-not-surging
Coronavirus (COVID-19) roundup
(Office for National Statistics
Figures.) Headline figures An
estimated 568,100 people in the community in England had COVID-19 between
17 and 23 October 2020 (1.04% of the community population). Analysis |
Data The
number of deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales in the
week ending 16 October 2020 (Week 42) was 670 (6.4% of all deaths in that
week). Analysis |
Data The
percentage of adults in Great Britain that said their well-being was being
affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak was 49% between 21 October
and 25 October 2020. Analysis |
Data According
to the latest Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey, nearly
half (47%) of currently trading UK businesses reported that their turnover
had decreased below what is normally expected for this time of year. Analysis |
Data More
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Lies, Damned Lies and Health
Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives 20 September
2020 by Dr Michael Yeadon
---- So, to this article. Its about the testing we do
with something called PCR, an amplification technique, better known to
biologists as a research tool used in our labs, when trying to unpick
mechanisms of disease. I was frankly astonished to realise they’re sometimes
used in population screening for diseases – astonished because it is a very
exacting technique, prone to invisible errors and it’s quite a tall order to
get reliable information out of it, especially because of the prodigious
amounts of amplification involved in attempting to pick up a strand of viral
genetic code. The test cannot distinguish between a living virus and a short
strand of RNA from a virus which broke into pieces weeks or months ago.
I believe I
have identified a serious, really a fatal flaw in the PCR test used in what is
called by the UK Government the Pillar 2 screening – that is, testing many
people out in their communities. I’m going to go through this with care and in
detail because I’m a scientist and dislike where this investigation takes me.
I’m not particularly political and my preference is for competent, honest
administration over the actual policies chosen.
More.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/
U.S. shatters record with
almost 90K new cases in major COVID-19 spike Oct. 30, 2020 / 9:45 AM
Oct. 30 (UPI) -- The United States has added close to 90,000 new COVID-19 cases --
the most ever for a single day -- and the nation's top diseases expert says
there's "a whole lot of pain" to come unless things change, and
quickly.
Updated data from Johns
Hopkins University on Friday showed an addition of 88,500 cases for
Thursday, the most for one day in the United States since the virus arrived
early this year.
Thursday's number was an increase of almost 10,000 cases.
The previous highs, about 84,000 cases, were seen last weekend. There were also
about 1,000 new deaths, the data showed.
The dramatic spike has pushed the U.S. case total close to
the 9 million mark. About 228,700 people have died nationwide since the start
of March, according to Johns Hopkins. There have been close to 550,000 new
cases and 5,600 deaths in the United States in the past week alone.
Hospitalizations are up almost 50% this month, according
Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says the trajectory of this new surge in cases
will lead to many more deaths this winter.
"If things do not change, if they continue on the
course we're on, there's going to be a whole lot of pain in this country with
regard to additional cases and hospitalizations, and deaths," Fauci told CNBC .
"We are on a very difficult trajectory," he said.
"We are going in the wrong direction."
Fauci and numerous other health experts have been saying
for weeks that the data wasn't looking good for the colder months, when more
people gather indoors and spread the coronavirus. He said the greatest impact
will probably hit the Midwest and Northwest, where health facilities are less
equipped to handle large surges in cases.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/10/30/US-shatters-record-with-almost-90K-new-cases-in-major-COVID-19-spike/3101604056087/
Next, more going to the dogs. No more ruinous lock downs.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-27/first-trial-at-train-station-for-dogs-that-can-smell-covid-19-in-humans
Next, some very useful vaccine
links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization -
Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
FDA information . https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, and science in general, I’ve
added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Reliable quality-control of
graphene and other 2D materials is routinely possible Date: October 28, 2020
Source: DOE/Ames Laboratory
Summary: Scientists have discovered and
confirmed a method which could serve as an easy but reliable way to test the
quality of graphene and other 2D materials.
Graphene and
other single-atom-thick substances are a category of wonder materials, with
researchers the world over investigating their electronic properties for
potential applications in technologies as diverse as solar cells, novel
semiconductors, sensors, and energy storage.
The greatest
challenge for the design of these single-layer or 2D materials into all their
myriad potential uses is the need for an atom-by-atom perfection and uniformity
that can be difficult and painstaking to achieve at such small scales, and
difficult to assess as well.
"We are
trying to be more clever than nature in assembling these materials," said
Michael C. Tringides, a senior scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's
Ames Laboratory and professor of physics at Iowa State University, who
investigates the unique properties of 2D materials and metals grown on
graphene, graphite, and other carbon coated surfaces. "And to do so, we're
forcing atoms to assemble in ways they normally would not. One of the major
challenges of the field is to reliably produce high quality graphene and other
materials like it."
Tringides
and other scientists at Ames Laboratory have discovered and confirmed a method
which could serve as an easy but reliable way to test the quality of graphene
and other 2D materials. It takes advantage of the very broad background in
surface electron diffraction, named the Bell-Shaped-Component (BSC) which
strongly correlates to uniformly patterned, or "perfect" graphene.
Understanding
the correlation has implications for reliable quality control of 2D materials
in a manufacturing environment.
"This
discovery challenges conventional wisdom, but the correlation between this
strange phenomenon and high quality graphene is unmistakable. In practical
application, we see it extending to other high-interest 2D materials that are
similar to graphene in having similar uniformity of a single layer," said
Tringides.
More
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201028171426.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29
Finally, the ultimate Christmas gift?
This $22,000 Book Features
Life-Size Photos of the Sistine Chapel’s Art The pricey tome consists of
three 25-pound, two-foot-tall volumes Anyone who’s visited the Sistine Chapel can testify that it’s difficult to examine
the space’s meticulously painted frescoes up close—partly because of
the high
volume of people in the chapel at any given time, but also due to the sheer
height of its 68-foot-tall ceiling.
Luckily, a soon-to-be released book titled The
Sistine Chapel
As Katie Rothstein writes for artnet News Callaway Arts and
Entertainment , the Vatican Museums, and Italian publisher Scripta
Maneant —features the “most precise images of the artwork ever produced,”
rendering paintings by Michelangelo ,
Sandro Botticelli , Perugino
and other artists on a 1:1 scale with 99.4 percent color accuracy.
This level of detail, however, comes at a steep price:
$22,000 (excluding tax, but inclusive of shipping and handling).
According to a statement ,
publishers plan on printing just 1,999 copies—including 600 English sets—of the
822-page book. Each of the three volumes measures 24 by 17 inches and weighs a
whopping 25 pounds.
More
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/20000-book-shows-sistine-chapel-real-scale-180976152/?utm_source=smithsoniandaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20201029-daily-responsive&spMailingID=43795096&spUserID=NjUwNDIzNTUzNDE0S0&spJobID=1862425424&spReportId=MTg2MjQyNTQyNAS2
I have actually seen the Sistine
Chapel’s ceiling. I was not impressed. At 15 years old and on a school trip to
Rome, if you’ve seen one painted ceiling many feet up in the air, you’ve seen
enough.
This weekend’s musical diversion. Vivaldi again but in a minor key. 
