Fight Night 3. Mendicant Industries. A Short, Sharp Shock?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1346 -04  Brent Crude 41.49

Spot Gold 1916

Coronavirus Cases 22/10/20 World 41,309,416

Deaths 1,133,065

Blantyre Mining Disaster 22 October 1877.

The Blantyre mining disaster, which happened on the morning of 22 October 1877, in Blantyre, Scotland, was Scotland's worst ever mining accident.^[3][4] Pits No. 2 and No. 3 of William Dixon's Blantyre Colliery were the site of an explosion which killed 207 miners, the youngest being a boy of 11.

---- It is reported that, six months after the accident, Dixon's raised summonses against 34 widows whose husbands had been killed and who had not left the tied cottages which they and their husbands had rented from the mining company. They were evicted two weeks later, on 28 May 1878.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blantyre_mining_disaster

It is fight night three between the defending champion President Grumpy Trump and the aged contender, the much fancied, ex- Senator, ex-Vice President, Sleepy Joe Biden.

To level the fight ring this time round, after the highly entertaining fight night one between the contestants, the partisan organisers have decided to censor the defending champion, by cutting off his microphone from time to time.

Presidents Xi and Putin use slightly more effective measures at rigging outcomes.

By censoring President Trump the organisers have greatly devalued the entertainment level of the show, reducing the entertainment value of Grumpy in favour of Sleepy.

More tomorrow probably.

Below, today’s business news update. Dinosaur Graeme does not like today’s update. The stock casinos get closer to a return to a harsh reality with each passing day. November 4^th?

Asian shares drop as U.S. stimulus talks drag on

October 22, 202012:40 AM By Andrew Galbraith, Jessica DiNapoli

SHANGHAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Thursday and U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower as investors fretted over the slow pace of U.S. stimulus talks and a surge in global cases of COVID-19.

Global investor sentiment took a fresh hit over talks to boost the world’s largest economy after U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday accused Democrats of being unwilling to craft an acceptable compromise on stimulus, following reports of progress earlier in the day.

It remains unclear whether stimulus negotiations would continue ahead of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections on Nov. 3.

“We still think that this deal will remain elusive in the sense that this amount that we are talking about, $1.88 trillion, that’s about 9% of GDP, and 2.2 trillion which is Speaker Pelosi’s package, is even higher at around 10% of GDP,” said Anthony Chan, chief Asia investment strategist at Union Bancaire Privee (UBP) in Hong Kong.

“Even if both sides do manage to reach an agreement, given the tight deadline ahead of the election it’s unlikely that something like that would be able to go through the Senate smoothly.”

In morning trade, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.63%.

Australian shares gave up 0.6%, Seoul’s Kospi was off 0.59% and and Chinese blue-chips dropped 1.1%.

The Nikkei was 0.69% lower.

Uncertainty over the passage of a bill to stimulate a pandemic-ravaged economy comes as the United States faces a new wave of COVID-19 cases.

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. states were in a danger zone of coronavirus spread and six, including election battleground Wisconsin, reported a record one-day increase in COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday.

Against the backdrop of stimulus talks and the spread of the novel coronavirus, Wall Street’s three major averages closed lower on Wednesday after a choppy trading session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower by 0.35%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.22%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.28%.

---- “Markets are now pricing in a strong likelihood of a Biden Presidency perhaps even clean sweep of Congress, and this is weighing on the USD, as they view a less confrontational trade environment. They will also probably be factoring in a large fiscal stimulus early next year, with none of the hold up that is currently preventing a deal,” Rob Carnell, chief economist at ING in Singapore said in a note.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-drop-as-u-s-stimulus-talks-drag-on-idUKKBN2763DA

Oil slips on weaker demand outlook after U.S. gasoline stocks build

October 22, 20202:37 AM  By Sonali Paul

MELBOURNE/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped in early trade on Thursday, adding to heavy losses overnight, after a build in U.S. gasoline inventories pointed to a deteriorating outlook for fuel demand as coronavirus cases soar in North America and Europe.

Brent crude LCOc1 futures retreated 22 cents, or 0.5%, to $41.51 a barrel at 0328 GMT after sliding 3.3% on Wednesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 26 cents, or 0.7%, to $39.77 a barrel, after skidding 4% on Wednesday.

U.S. gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 16, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, compared with expectations for a 1.8 million-barrel drop.

Overall product supplied, a proxy for demand, averaged 18.3 million barrels per day in the four weeks to Oct. 16, the EIA said - down 13% from the same period a year earlier.

“The latest EIA report showed an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories, which came at the same time as reduced gasoline output because of refinery outages due to Hurricane Delta. So the implication is gasoline demand is pretty soft,” said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research at National Australia Bank.

With new daily COVID-19 infections hitting records in several U.S. states and in Europe, new lockdowns and China’s clampdown on outbound travel to help stem the spread of the disease bode ill for fuel demand.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-slips-on-weaker-demand-outlook-after-u-s-gasoline-stocks-build-idUKKBN27703I

Over half Europe's small firms fear for survival, survey finds

October 22, 20204:03 AM  By Mark John

LONDON (Reuters) - Over half the small and medium-sized companies which together provide jobs for two-thirds of European workers fear for their survival in the coming 12 months, according to a survey released by management consultancy McKinsey on Thursday.

The survey was conducted in August, before the current acceleration in new coronavirus cases across Europe that is forcing governments to impose new restrictions on activity and prompting speculation of fresh national lockdowns.

The finding comes as warnings multiply of an impending wave of business insolvencies and as the International Monetary Fund and others urge the region’s governments to double down on state support to help companies weather the coronavirus pandemic.

The McKinsey survey of more than 2,200 companies in five countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Britain - found that 55% expected to shut down by September next year if their revenues remained at current levels.

At the current trajectory, one in 10 small and medium-sized companies were expected to file bankruptcy within six months.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-economy-smallbusiness/over-half-europes-small-firms-fear-for-survival-survey-finds-idUKKBN27709T

12 million people in Britain will struggle to pay bills, watchdog says

October 22, 202012:11 AM  By Reuters Staff

LONDON (Reuters) - Some 12 million people in Britain are likely to struggle with bills and loan repayments as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak economic havoc, a Financial Conduct Authority survey tracking consumer financial resilience showed on Thursday.

The survey, conducted in July, found 12 million people in Britain had low financial resilience and also found that one-sixth of those people had become financially vulnerable since February, after lockdowns to control the virus slashed incomes and led to thousands of job cuts.

The survey, in which 7,000 people took part, showed that almost a third of adults have suffered a drop in income, while income for households has fallen by a quarter on average.

Black and Minority Ethnic respondents fared even worse, with 37% reporting a hit to their incomes.

More than a third of respondents, who already had low financial resilience and had a mortgage, said they were likely to fall behind on mortgage payments, while 42% of renters said they were worried about falling behind on their obligations.

36% of people feared falling behind on repayments linked to loans or credit cards.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-fca/12-million-people-in-britain-will-struggle-to-pay-bills-watchdog-says-idUKKBN2763C5

Finally, waiting for the next lock down, our new 2020 mendicant industries?

Airlines. Airline manufacturers including engine manufacturers. Barbers. Bars. Cafes. Caterers. Churches. Cinemas. Corner shops. Cruise lines. Farmers. Hospitality providers. Hotels. Nightclubs. Pubs. Public transport. Shopping malls. Theatres, including Concert Halls and Comedy Clubs (Parliament excepted.) Wedding venues.

“To sit in solemn silence on a dull, dark dock
in a pestilential prison with a life-long lock
awaiting the sensation of a short, sharp shock
from a cheap and chippy chopper on a big, black block.”

W. S. Gilbert, The Mikado

Winter Watch.

The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum.

Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving norther hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season.

Adding to this year’s winter concerns, a developing La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. While the La Nina effect on the winter weather of western Europe is weaker than that of an El Nino pattern, which tends to make for a milder winter, a La Nina pattern tends to make for a colder winter.

The early take, Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October. North America is now playing catchup. The Arctic sea ice expansion is slow, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, will probably now speed up.

If I had to bet, I’d bet on a colder than average winter in Europe. The USA? With all that hot election air, who knows.

US National Ice Center.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Japan researchers show masks do block coronavirus, but not perfectly

October 22, 20205:35 AM

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese researchers showed that masks can offer protection from airborne coronavirus particles, but even professional-grade coverings can’t eliminate contagion risk entirely.

Scientists at the University of Tokyo built a secure chamber with mannequin heads facing each other. One head, fitted with a nebulizer, simulated coughing and expelled actual coronavirus particles. The other mimicked natural breathing, with a collection chamber for viruses coming through the airway.

A cotton mask reduced viral uptake by the receiver head by up to 40% compared to no mask. An N95 mask, used by medical professionals, blocked up to 90%. However, even when the N95 was fitted to the face with tape, some virus particles still sneaked in.

When a mask was attached to the coughing head, cotton and surgical masks blocked more than 50% of the virus transmission.

“There was a synergistic effect when both the virus receiver and virus spreader wore masks,” the researchers wrote in a study published on Wednesday.

There has been a growing consensus among health experts that the COVID-19 virus can be spread through the air. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revised its guidance this month to say the pathogen can linger in the air for hours.

A separate team of Japanese researchers used supercomputer simulations to show that humidity can have a significant effect on the airborne dispersion of virus particles.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-japan-masks/japan-researchers-show-masks-do-block-coronavirus-but-not-perfectly-idUKKBN2770DF?il=0

Britain partners with Oxford firm to assess coronavirus vaccine T cell responses

October 22, 20205:03 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain on Thursday said it would partner with an Oxford-based firm to provide testing for the T cell response of coronavirus vaccine candidates to try to assess their immune responses.

T cell immunity is thought to be essential to protection against infection from the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus, and could provide longer term immunity than antibodies.

The UK Vaccine Taskforce has chosen Oxford Immunotec to supply T cell testing for its assessment of different vaccine candidates.

“It is important to be able to assess the different vaccines head-to-head and the T cell response is part of our portfolio of accredited assays that we are employing for cross comparisons,” Kate Bingham, chair of the UK Vaccines Taskforce, said in a statement.

Britain has signed supply deals for six different coronavirus vaccine candidates, including those being made by AstraZeneca AZN.L and Pfizer PFE.N and BioNTech 22UAy.F, seen as among the frontrunners in the race for a vaccine.

Oxford Immunotec said its techonology platform enabled the centralisation of fresh blood samples from different locations to measure the T cell response in a standardised way.

It said the platform, known as T-SPOT, was being used to identify the T cells made in response to the pathogen that causes tuberculosis.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-tcell/britain-partners-with-oxford-firm-to-assess-coronavirus-vaccine-t-cell-responses-idUKKBN2770BC?il=0

AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine trial Brazil volunteer dies, trial to continue

October 21, 20206:04 PM  By Eduardo Simões, Ludwig Burger

SAO PAULO/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Brazilian health authority Anvisa said on Wednesday that a volunteer in a clinical trial of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University had died but added that the trial would continue.

Oxford confirmed the plan to keep testing, saying in a statement that after careful assessment “there have been no concerns about safety of the clinical trial.”

AstraZeneca declined to comment immediately.

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters the trial would have been suspended if the volunteer who died had received the COVID-19 vaccine, suggesting the person was part of the control group that was given a meningitis jab.

The Federal University of Sao Paulo, which is helping coordinate phase 3 clinical trials in Brazil, said an independent review committee had also recommended the trial continue. The university earlier confirmed the volunteer was Brazilian but gave no further personal details.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-trial-brazil-volunteer-dies-trial-to-continue-idUKKBN2762OT

New German coronavirus cases rise by more than 10,000 for first time - RKI

October 22, 20203:45 AM

BERLIN (Reuters) - The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany rose by more than 10,000 in a single day for the first time, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed on Tuesday.

The institute recorded 11,287 new cases in its daily update for a total of 392,049. The previous day’s increase was 7,830.

The reported death toll rose by 30 to 9,905, the tally showed.

While Germany’s infection rates are lower than in much of Europe, they have been accelerating rapidly since the onset of cooler weather, with politicians warning that stricter social distancing rules may be needed if the trend continues.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-cases/new-german-coronavirus-cases-rise-by-more-than-10000-for-first-time-rki-idUKKBN27707T?il=0

Barcelona hospitals brace as second wave of COVID admissions builds

October 21, 202011:14 AM

BARCELONA (Reuters) - For Julio Pascual, a sharp rise in coronavirus admissions at the Barcelona hospital he serves as medical director carries an unwelcome sense of deja vu.

As Spain’s total registered cases near one million, daily admissions at the Catalan capital’s Hospital del Mar have more than doubled to around 16 over the past few days.

Situated in a pandemic hotspot, the hospital is better prepared to treat COVID-19 patients than it was in March, but Pascual is concerned over a chronic shortage of nurses, and risks that overworked staff could burn out.

“It is not the speed of the first wave but there’s an evident uptick in cases,” he told Reuters.

“If the rhythm (of COVID hospitalisations) of the past week continues, rescheduling and suspending some non-priority activities will become unavoidable.”

With the most confirmed cases in Western Europe, Spain is struggling to manage its second wave.

Restrictions have been imposed across the country, notably in the two hardest hit regions, with Madrid placed on partial lockdown and Catalonia shutting bars and restaurants.

“We need to convince people not to socially interact. What’s at stake are the non-COVID patients ... The resources that were working well until a week ago are simply not enough anymore,” said Xavier Borras, medical director at the Hospital de Sant Pau, also in Barcelona.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-spain-hospitals/barcelona-hospitals-brace-as-second-wave-of-covid-admissions-builds-idUKKBN2761AJ?il=0

Slovenia, Croatia reach daily records in COVID-19 cases

October 21, 202010:49 AM

ZAGREB (Reuters) - Slovenia reported on Wednesday a record 1,503 daily cases of COVID-19, and Croatia posted a record high of 1,424 new infections.

This week Slovenia introduced a curfew from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. and a 30-day state of emergency to cope with the coronavirus.. Slovenia has altogether had 15,982 cases of COVID-19 and 200 fatalities.

Croatia, which so far has had 28,287 cases and 393 deaths, said it was not yet considering such measures. At the moment, Croatia mandates wearing face masks indoors, limits the number of customers in bars and restaurants, and receive a limited number of guests, and requires gatherings of more than 50 people to get approval from the authorities.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-croatia-slovenia/slovenia-croatia-reach-daily-records-in-covid-19-cases-idUKKBN27617S?il=0

What you need to know about the coronavirus right now

October 21, 20206:34 AM

(Reuters) - Here’s what you need to know about the coronavirus right now:

Chinese city offers residents experimental vaccines

Shaoxing city in China’s Zhejiang province will offer experimental coronavirus vaccines to its residents, as China broadens an emergency use programme to people in non-priority groups, the city’s health commission said on Tuesday on its WeChat account.

It did not name the vaccine, say when inoculation would start or how many doses would be offered. Residents aged between 18 and 59 who are not in priority groups, can apply online for inoculation. Applicants will need to give reasons for wanting the vaccine on their applications and will be charged 400 yuan ($60) for two doses, with an additional inoculation fee of 28 yuan per dose, the city said.

Hundreds of thousands of people have already taken experimental COVID-19 vaccines in China since it launched its emergency use programme in July aimed at essential workers and other limited groups of people at higher risk of infection. Last week, Zhejiang became the first Chinese province to offer the voluntary inoculation to non-priority residents via the emergency use programme, without specifying how many people will be vaccinated.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-snapshot/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-coronavirus-right-now-idUKKBN2760KB

Finally, why we shouldn’t be rushing out half tested coronavirus vaccines. While it’s not certain this flu vaccine was the cause of the deaths, the suspicion is high.  Big pharma, and politicians should not be promoting half tested vaccines on the public.

Five South Koreans die after getting flu shots, sparking vaccine fears

October 21, 20207:19 AM  By Sangmi Cha

SEOUL (Reuters) - Five people have died after getting flu shots in South Korea in the past week, authorities said, raising concerns over the vaccine’s safety just as the seasonal inoculation programme is expanded to head off potential COVID-19 complications.

Authorities said there was no reason to believe the deaths were linked to the vaccine but an investigation, including post mortems, was underway.

“It makes it hard for us to put out a categorical statement,” Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told a briefing on Wednesday about the deaths, which include a 17-year-old boy and a man in his 70s.

Coming just weeks after the rollout of the national vaccine programme was suspended over safety worries, the deaths have dominated headlines in South Korea.

Officials last month announced plans to procure 20% more flu vaccines for the winter than the previous year to inoculate 30 million people in a bid to prevent the health system being overloaded by patients with flu and COVID-19 exposure.

However, the start of a free jab programme for around 19 million eligible people was suspended for three weeks after it was discovered that some 5 million doses, which need to be refrigerated, had been exposed to room temperature while being transported to a medical facility.

Boosting public trust in vaccines has become a major global challenge this year, as some countries rush to approve experimental COVID-19 vaccines before full safety and efficacy studies have been completed.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea-flushot/five-south-koreans-die-after-getting-flu-shots-sparking-vaccine-fears-idUKKBN2760NG?il=0

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

“I'm really very sorry for you all, but it's an unjust world, and virtue is triumphant only in theatrical performances.”

W. S. Gilbert, The Mikado

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

Stronger Than Steel, Able to Stop a Speeding Bullet—It’s Super Wood!

Simple processes can make wood tough, impact-resistant—or even transparent.

October 19, 2020

Some varieties of wood, such as oak and maple, are renowned for their strength. But scientists say a simple and inexpensive new process can transform any type of wood into a material stronger than steel, and even some high-tech titanium alloys. Besides taking a star turn in buildings and vehicles, the substance could even be used to make bullet-resistant armor plates.

Wood is abundant and relatively low-cost—it literally grows on trees. And although it has been used for millennia to build everything from furniture to homes and larger structures, untreated wood is rarely as strong as metals used in construction. Researchers have long tried to enhance its strength, especially by compressing and “densifying” it, says Liangbing Hu, a materials scientist at the University of Maryland, College Park. But densified wood tends to weaken and spring back toward its original size and shape, especially in humid conditions.

Now, Hu and his colleagues say they have come up with a better way to densify wood, which they report in Nature. Their simple, two-step process starts with boiling wood in a solution of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) and sodium sulfite (Na2SO3), a chemical treatment similar to the first step in creating the wood pulp used to make paper. This partially removes lignin and hemicellulose (natural polymers that help stiffen a plant’s cell walls)—but it largely leaves the wood’s cellulose (another natural polymer) intact, Hu says.

The second step is almost as simple as the first: Compressing the treated wood until its cell walls collapse, then maintaining that compression as it is gently heated. The pressure and heat encourage the formation of chemical bonds between large numbers of hydrogen atoms and neighboring atoms in adjacent nanofibers of cellulose, greatly strengthening the material.

The results are impressive. The team’s compressed wood is three times as dense as the untreated substance, Hu says, adding that its resistance to being ripped apart is increased more than 10-fold. It also can become about 50 times more resistant to compression and almost 20 times as stiff. The densified wood is also substantially harder, more scratch-resistant and more impact-resistant. It can be molded into almost any shape. Perhaps most importantly, the densified wood is also moisture-resistant: In lab tests, compressed samples exposed to extreme humidity for more than five days swelled less than 10 percent—and in subsequent tests, Hu says, a simple coat of paint eliminated that swelling entirely.

A five-layer, plywoodlike sandwich of densified wood stopped simulated bullets fired into the material—a result Hu and his colleagues suggest could lead to low-cost armor. The material does not protect quite as well as a Kevlar sheet of the same thickness—but it only costs about 5 percent as much, he notes.

The team’s results “appear to open the door to a new class of lightweight materials,” says Ping Liu, a materials chemist at the University of California, San Diego, unaffiliated with the Nature study.

More

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/stronger-than-steel-able-to-stop-a-speeding-bullet-it-s-super-wood

US Politics Betting Odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

Dawson, New Mexico, Mine Explosion 1913.

On October 22, 1913, Dawson suffered its first major disaster. Stag Canyon Mine No. 2 was shaken by an explosion that was felt two miles away in the town proper. Relief teams rushed in from surrounding communities and as far away as Pittsburg, Kansas, and Rock Springs, Wyoming, but of the 286 men who arrived to work in the Stag Canyon mine that morning, only 23 survived.^[3]

Phelps Dodge sent a special train from El Paso, Texas, with doctors and nurses, but to no avail. Of the worker casualties, 146 were Italian and 36 were Greek.^[6] Two rescuers died during the rescue effort. It was later determined that the explosion was caused by a dynamite charge set off while the mine was in general operation, igniting coal dust in the mine. This was in violation of mining safety laws.

The other mines remained productive after the disaster in Mine No. 2. Then, on February 8, 1923, Stag Canyon Mine No. 1 suffered an explosion. A mine car derailed, knocking down timbers and the electric trolley cable causing sparks, igniting coal dust in the mine. 123 men were killed in this explosion,^[7] many of them offspring of the men who died in 1913.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawson,_New_Mexico#Disasters