October
1, 20201:25
AM
By
Hideyuki
Sano
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Global shares tried to extend gains on Thursday on renewed hopes
for fresh U.S. stimulus measures, but mounting uncertainty ahead of America’s
presidential election and technical problems in Japan kept gains in check.
S&P500 futures ESc1 rose 0.6% in Asia, extending
Wall Street shares' rebound overnight after strong employment data and talk of
progress on long-delayed COVID-19 relief legislation.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS
was up 0.3%, with Australian shares .AXJO
rising 1.4%.
But regional trade was thinned by system
glitches at the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) and holidays in Greater China and
South Korea.
Technical problems at the TSE prompted the
suspension of all share trading in Japan. The TSE said trading would be halted
all day and said it was not sure when it can recover its systems.
Derivatives trading in Osaka was unaffected.
Nikkei futures JNIc1 rose 0.5%
in tandem with gains in U.S. futures.
On Wednesday, the S&P500 .SPX gained 0.83% and the Nasdaq
Composite .IXIC added 0.74%,
even though they wrapped up September with their first monthly declines since
March, when mandated coronavirus shutdowns slammed the economy.
A spate of economic data mostly surprised to
the upside, with the ADP National Employment index blowing past analysts’
expectations and pending home sales surging to an all-time high.
“The U.S. data is surprisingly strong, so
that underpins the market. But I don’t expect a clear-cut trend in markets
until we see the outcome of the U.S. election,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief
global strategist at Daiwa Securities.
Also helping to boost risk appetite, U.S.
House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven
Mnuchin both expressed hope for a breakthrough in partisan stimulus
negotiations.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/global-shares-extend-gains-on-u-s-stimulus-upbeat-data-idUKKBN26M3ZS?il=0
Back
in the US real economy, grim news. A second round of layoffs is just getting
underway.
American, United to Cut Combined
32,000 Jobs Amid U.S. Aid Talks By Mary
Schlangenstein and Justin
Bachman October
1, 2020, 12:59 AM GMT+1 Updated on
American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. will
start laying off thousands of employees as originally scheduled, spurning an
appeal from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin as he negotiates with Congress
about extending payroll support for U.S. carriers.
Both airlines vowed to reverse the furloughs if the
government agrees to provide additional aid in the next few days, according to
memos to workers issued late Wednesday by the carriers. American is furloughing
19,000, while United is laying off about 13,000.
The decision to move ahead with job cuts ramps up the
pressure on Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as they haggle over a $2.2
trillion economic relief bill backed by Democrats. That includes $25 billion in
payroll aid for airlines, which are contending with an unprecedented collapse
in travel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
“I am extremely sorry we have reached this outcome,”
American Airlines Chief Executive Officer Doug Parker said in a letter to
employees. “It is not what you all deserve.”
Read more: One Day, Thousands of Job
Cuts: Economic Pain Is Deepening
The Treasury secretary urged airlines earlier Wednesday to
delay layoff s that were
set to begin when a previous round of payroll aid of $25 billion expired at the
end of the day. House leaders postponed a vote on the stimulus
plan to give Pelosi more time to hammer out a compromise with Mnuchin.
United said it had made clear to the Trump administration,
Congress and labor unions that it “can and will reverse the furlough process”
if additional aid is extended. But the outcome is uncertain.
The layoff s
add to job losses that already total 150,000 at the nation’s four largest
carriers based on employees who have left voluntarily or taken temporary leave.
Airlines have already reduced executive pay, pared schedules and grounded
planes as domestic demand languishes at about 30% of year-ago levels.
International travel remains well below that.
----Delta Air Lines Inc. will avoid most layoff s until at least next
summer after 17,000 workers left voluntarily and 40,000 took unpaid leaves. It
remains in talks with its pilots union about ways to reduce or eliminate about
2,000 furloughs. Southwest Airlines Co. also has said it won’t lay off workers through the end
of 2020 after 28% of its workforce agreed to leave permanently or temporarily.
A Standard & Poor’s index of major U.S. carriers has
fallen 47% this year, with declines led by United and American. The S&P 500
Index has advanced 4.1%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/american-air-moves-ahead-with-19-000-layoffs-as-u-s-weighs-aid?srnd=premium-europe
U.S. Retail Store Closures Hit
Record in First Half Through June, 18
retailers have filed for chapter 11, mostly those selling apparel, footwear and
home furnishings
Updated Sept. 29, 2020 4:12 pm ET
Retail store closings in the U.S. reached a record in the
first half of 2020 and the year is on pace for record bankruptcies and
liquidations as the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates industry changes,
particularly the shift to online shopping, according to a report on the
downturn’s severity.
This year’s collapse in American retail could overtake that
of 2010, when 48 retailers filed for bankruptcy in the wake of the 2007-09
recession, according to the report by professional-services firm BDO USA LLP.
Including filings through mid-August, BDO said 29 retailers have sought
bankruptcy protection in 2020, surpassing the 22 such filings recorded last year.
Temporary government-mandated store closures and
social-distancing measures have intensified challenges that bricks-and-mortar
retailers had faced before the pandemic, according to BDO. Consumers stuck at
home are buying more online than ever, with rising internet sales expected to
partially offset losses from physical stores, the report said.
That trend has put more pressure on bricks-and-mortar
locations, compounded by excessive debt, store saturation, high unemployment
and changing shopper behaviors. In particular, demand has cratered for business
attire and outfits for social occasions—weddings, graduations and other
milestones.
“This is almost certainly the worst year in recent history
for retail,” said Kyle Sturgeon, a managing partner at Atlanta-based turnaround
advisory firm Meru LLC.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-retail-bankruptcies-store-closures-hit-record-in-first-half-11601371800
David
Rosenberg: We’re in a depression, not recession — and the scars will take years
to heal I can assure you that what we face at this very moment is a
very uncertain economic future
Sep 30, 2020
The economy will not be “business as
usual,” as the bulls will try and convince you, and the best we can hope for is
a partial recovery — at best, David Rosenberg writes.
There is a raging debate as to whether life ever gets back to “normal,”
whatever that means.
For example, there is a belief that with a vaccine or not, the citizenry
is getting fed up with COVID-19, and everyone is aching to go out to eat and
drink and gamble and browse at the malls … and dying to go back to the office.
That is the narrative, but it is not the reality.
The polls had already shown how attitudes have been shifting on a
secular basis. Even the things that are moving, and moving fast, such as
housing sales, are being driven by activity in rural areas and towards
single-family units and away from multi-family. There is a much greater
appreciation for open space now than there used to be, and that is not going to
change in the future.
Neither will working from home, for those who can. The Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago conducted a survey in the spring and found that three-quarters
of companies say the U.S. economy needs at least a year to fully recover from
the pandemic. There were 670 respondents in the poll and half told the Chicago
Fed that the recovery will take between one and two years to develop. The other
half was split between a recovery in less than a year and one that would take
more than two years.
“Many of the small businesses we heard from — especially those in the
entertainment, tourism, recreation, restaurant, and retail sectors — are in
danger of financial distress,” the report said. “Many businesses are facing
very difficult challenges that are unlikely to go away quickly.”
Tally up those sectors and they supported 32 million jobs before the
crisis, or about a third of the private-sector workforce, and it looks to me as
though half of their workers are not going back to their old jobs. I’m not sure
many people understand that amusement parks, airlines, hoteliers and
restaurants cannot stay in business at 50-per-cent capacity (or even 75 per
cent in the case of restaurants).
More
https://financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-were-in-a-depression-not-recession-and-the-scars-will-take-years-to-heal
In
Brexit news, life goes on despite a no deal Brexit and the global coronavirus
pandemic. The no deal Brexit merely adds to the length of any GB and rump-EU
recovery.
Norway reaches fisheries
agreement with UK ahead of Brexit September 30,
20208:25 AM
OSLO (Reuters) - Norway and Britain have reached a bilateral agreement
on fisheries, the Norwegian government said on Wednesday, before Britain leaves
the European Union’s single market at the end of the year.
The framework agreement, which takes effect on Jan. 1, will govern
control measures, licences and research, and also facilitates a mutual exchange
of quotas and access to each other’s waters, the Norwegian government said in a
statement.
While Norway is not a member of the EU, it is integrated into the bloc’s
common market and must thus negotiate separate post-Brexit trade relations with
Britain.
Britain formally left the EU in January but London and Brussels are
seeking a new trade deal before a status-quo transition arrangement ends in
December.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-norway-fisheries/norway-reaches-fisheries-agreement-with-uk-ahead-of-brexit-idUKKBN26L13A?il=0
UK secures Vietnam backing to
join Trans-Pacific trading group, Raab says September 30,
20209:06 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on Wednesday
Britain had secured Vietnam’s public support for it to join the Comprehensive
and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
“This is a significant step in taking the UK-Vietnam economic
relationship to the next level, and demonstrating the UK’s commitment and value
to the region,” Raab said on Twitter.
The CPTPP is a free trade agreement that links Canada, Australia,
Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and
Vietnam.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-cptpp-vietnam/uk-secures-vietnam-backing-to-join-trans-pacific-trading-group-raab-says-idUKKBN26L19J
“What
me worry?”
Mad
Magazine.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Despite
the surge in official new Covid-19 “cases,” the official new daily global death
count appears to me to have peaked in May-July and to be declining. If so,
deaths are not following a 1918 flu pandemic death wave pattern.
Are
even partial lock downs necessary? Can we actually live with Covid-19 even
before there are competing vaccines?
Austria investigates four over
COVID-19 quarantine at Ischgl ski resort September 30,
202010:22 AM
VIENNA (Reuters) - Austrian prosecutors said on Wednesday they have
placed four people under investigation in connection with a quarantine and
other restrictions imposed at the ski resort of Ischgl in March because of a
massive coronavirus outbreak.
Thousands were infected at the resort that called itself the “Ibiza of
the Alps”, many of them foreign tourists who brought the virus home before the
first case was detected there on March 7. Austria’s public health agency
believes the virus arrived there a month earlier, spreading in crowded bars.
Prosecutors in the provincial capital Innsbruck have been investigating
whether anyone in Ischgl endangered others by, for example, failing to report a
case before March 7. Instead, Wednesday’s announcement appears to be in
relation to the quarantine and other measures taken on March 13.
“In particular the implementation of decrees relating to traffic
restrictions in Ischgl and the quarantine in the Paznaun Valley are being
examined more closely. Four people are being investigated as suspects in
relation to that,” the prosecutors’ office said in a statement, naming the
valley Ischgl is in.
A spokesman for the prosecutors’ office declined to elaborate on what
the suspects were thought to have done.
The outbreak has caused fury in Germany, whose citizens appear to be the
biggest group of foreign nationals infected.
A private consumer rights group has brought civil lawsuits against
Austria, arguing the authorities should have acted sooner and more decisively
to prevent the outbreak, which occurred before a national lockdown in
mid-March.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-austria-ischgl/austria-investigates-four-over-covid-19-quarantine-at-ischgl-ski-resort-idUKKBN26L1MB?il=0
Oxford will study top-selling
prescription drug for potential COVID-19 treatment September 30,
202010:15 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s Oxford University said on Wednesday it
would study whether the world’s best-selling prescription medicine, adalimumab,
was an effective treatment for COVID-19 patients, the latest effort to
repurpose existing drugs as potential coronavirus therapies.
The AVID-CC trial will test the anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF)
drug and will be aimed at treating people in the community, especially in care
homes. It will enrol up to 750 patients from community care settings throughout
the UK.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-oxford/oxford-will-study-top-selling-prescription-drug-for-potential-covid-19-treatment-idUKKBN26L1LL
India's coronavirus infections
rise to 6.31 million October 1, 20205:18
AM
BENGALURU (Reuters) - India’s coronavirus case tally increased by 86,821
in the last 24 hours to 6.31 million by Thursday morning, data from the health
ministry showed, as the country eased more restrictions to combat the economic
hit from the pandemic.
Deaths from coronavirus infections rose by 1,181 to 98,678, the ministry
said.
The South Asian nation on Wednesday permitted states to open schools and
movie theaters. The country’s richest state Maharashtra, home to financial hub
Mumbai, said it would also allow bars and restaurants to operate fully.
India reported its worst economic contraction in decades for the quarter
to June as the COVID-19 pandemic forced many businesses to close and the
country to impose one of the strictest lockdowns to prevent the virus from spreading.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-cases/indias-coronavirus-infections-rise-to-6-31-million-idUKKBN26M4FN?il=0
UK reports record daily figure of
7,143 COVID-19 cases September 29,
20204:27 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain reported 7,143 new cases of coronavirus on
Tuesday, the highest single figure to date, and 71 deaths, the biggest toll since
July.
Lockdown measures are being imposed across the country as the government
tries to limit the spread of the virus.
The 71 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test is the highest
level since 97 fatalities were recorded on July 1.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-cases/uk-reports-record-daily-figure-of-7143-covid-19-cases-idUKKBN26K2RI
Slovakia reports its largest
single-day count of new COVID-19 cases September 30,
202010:07 AM
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Slovakia has reported 567 new coronavirus cases, the
largest single-day tally since the COVID-19 pandemic started this year, health
ministry data showed on Wednesday.
The central European country of 5.5 million people has one of Europe’s
lowest death tolls from the disease and kept case numbers low during an initial
wave in March and April. But like other countries it has recently faced a spike
in cases and has limited public events and taken other measures to fight the
spread of the virus.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-slovakia/slovakia-reports-its-largest-single-day-count-of-new-covid-19-cases-idUKKBN26L1JQ?il=0
‘Game Changing’ 15-Minute
Covid-19 Test Cleared in Europe By Emma Court September 30, 2020, 7:30 AM GMT+1
Becton Dickinson and Co.’ s Covid-19 test that
returns results in 15 minutes has been cleared for use in countries that accept
Europe’s CE marking, the diagnostics maker said Wednesday.
The test is part of a new class of quicker screening tools
named for the identifying proteins called antigens they detect on the surface
of SARS-CoV-2. Becton Dickinson expects to begin selling the test, which runs
on the company’s cellphone-sized BD Veritor Plus System, in European markets at
the end of October. It will likely be used by emergency departments, general
practitioners and pediatricians.
“It is really a game-changing introduction here in Europe,”
said Fernand Goldblat, BD’s head of diagnostics for Europe. Europe was really
at the epicenter of the pandemic in April and May, “and unfortunately I think
we’re headed back in that direction. So the need will be extremely high,” he
said.
Antigen tests have emerged as a valuable tool because they
produce results much more quickly than gold-standard PCR diagnostic assays.
However, they are generally less accurate. In the U.S., for instance,
instructions for BD’s system recommend that negative results be
confirmed by a molecular testing method.
Becton
Dickinson said its antigen assay is 93.5% sensitive, a measure of how often it
correctly identifies infections, and 99.3% specific, the rate of correct
negative tests. The data, which differ from the U.S. label’s 84% sensitivity
and 100% specificity, come from a new clinical study that was recently
submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, spokesman Troy Kirkpatrick
said.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/becton-dickinson-15-minute-virus-test-cleared-in-europe?srnd=premium-europe
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Samad Aerospace proposes
high-speed, long-range, hybrid VTOL jetplanes By Loz Blain September 29, 2020
Some
50 miles outside London, roughly in between Cambridge and Oxford, lies a
decent-sized town called Milton Keynes. A couple of miles outside Milton Keynes
sits Cranfield Airport, originally built in World War 2. It's got a couple of
runways, one that's big enough to land a 757-sized airliner on, but since it
doesn't have the kind of terminals to process that volume of people, it's
chiefly used for business and private flights and the odd bit of R&D.
Opposite
the airport lies the Cranfield University Technology Park, and in that little
district you'll find Conway House, a multi-occupier building providing offices,
virtual offices and hotdesking services for startups. One of these startups is
Samad Aerospace, which is planning a series of electric and hybrid VTOL air
vehicles for the upcoming air mobility revolution.
CEO
and Founder Dr. Seyed Mohseni has spent the last 10 years building a clean tech
startup across the other side of town called Samad Power , which
has brought in a few million pounds' worth of grant money to help with the
development and build of miniature gas turbines for heat and power generation.
His passion and educational background, however, are in aerospace engineering
and aerospace propulsion, with an MBA and a doctorate in gas turbine technology
to boot.
Samad
Aerospace is an effort to bring Dr. Mohseni's two main areas of interest
together. The startup has been around since 2018, and it came out of the blocks
promising an " electric
VTOL business jet that has the range of 1,500 miles (2,414
km)," with a top speed of 450 mph (724 km/h), five seats and room for
luggage. How can it offer such an enormous range? By using a gas turbine
generator acting as a range extender.
More
https://newatlas.com/aircraft/samad-aerospace-q-starling-vtol-jet/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=3a65545840-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_09_30_08_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-3a65545840-90625829
Once again, I’m sceptical of the market for battery
hybrid, novelty airplanes. Still if motor manufacturing had been left to me GB
would mostly still be driving around in Austin 7s.
Austin 7 The
Austin 7 is an economy car that
was produced from 1923 until 1939 in the United Kingdom by Austin . It
was nicknamed the "Baby Austin" and was at that time one of the most
popular cars
produced for the British market
and sold well abroad. Its effect on the British market was similar to that of
the Model
T
Ford in the US, replacing most other British economy
cars and cyclecars of the
early 1920s. [1] It was
also licensed and copied by companies all over the world. [2] The
very first BMW car,
the BMW
Dixi , was a licensed Austin 7. In France they were made
and sold as Rosengarts , and in the
United States they were built by the American Austin Car Company . In
Japan, Nissan
also used the 7 design as the basis for their first cars,
although not under licence. [2] This
eventually led to a 1952 agreement for Nissan to build and sell Austins in
Japan under the Austin name.
More
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austin_7
US Politics Betting Odds https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
"The
great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is
limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and
that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice."
Henry
Hazlitt
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