Special Update 03/10/2020 Covid Strikes Again! What Next?

Baltic Dry Index. 2020 +151 Brent Crude 39.27

Spot Gold 1900

Covid-19 cases 19/09/20 World 30,563,439

Deaths 956,341

Covid-19 cases 03/10/20 World 34,671,389

Deaths 1,031,970

“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.”

Ronald Reagan

The big news of course is President Trump and his wife catching Covid-19. We wish him and his wife and all who get Covid-19, a full and speedy recovery. With it well covered in mainstream media, I’ll leave it for them to cover the big story.

In the stock casinos, the news about President Trump’s illness, merely added to an already difficult day. More important will be what happens over the weekend, and how the casino gamblers respond on Monday.

Tech Stocks Drop as Trump Virus Test Fuels Swings: Markets Wrap

By Claire Ballentine and Lu Wang

October 1, 2020, 10:36 PM GMT+1 Updated on October 2, 2020, 9:20 PM GMT+1

Most S&P 500 members gain, but tech rout pushes gauge lower  

 Disappointing U.S. labor report makes case for fresh stimulus

U.S. stocks slumped in volatile trading as investors weighed the implications of President Donald Trump’s positive test for the coronavirus along with renewed efforts to forge agreement on fiscal stimulus.

The Nasdaq 100 led losses amid declines for tech companies including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.com. The megacap shares also dragged down the S&P 500 Index, even as most stocks on the gauge gained. A disappointing jobs report that showed less hiring than analysts had estimated underscored the urgency to push through an aid measure, and stocks were pushed around by conflicting signals on the prospects for reaching a compromise in Washington.

Crude oil tumbled for a second day. The yen, often seen as a haven in times of market stress, edged higher amid the increased uncertainty in the runup to the Nov. 3 presidential election. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals rose in after-hours trading after Trump’s doctor said the president was treated with its antibody cocktail.

Traders had already been bracing for turmoil ahead of the ballot and in the months afterward, and the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped the most in a month at one point Friday before paring most of the increase.

“Whether it’s the president’s health situation or the payrolls report, this pandemic is still very much with us,” Anastasia Amoroso, head of cross-asset thematic strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “This really raises the specter of the importance for getting the fiscal stimulus done and for making sure people have access to enhanced unemployment benefits.”

Read more:

• Trump Tests Positive for Covid, Roiling Campaign and White House
• Pelosi Upbeat on Relief, Says Trump Illness Could Lift Roadblock
• Trump’s Age and Weight Make Covid Particularly Dangerous

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged airlines to delay job cuts, saying an aid package was on the way. She said negotiations with the White House on a new stimulus will press ahead and Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis might change the tenor of the talks by emphasizing the seriousness of the pandemic.

While Trump was said to be experiencing only mild symptoms, the president’s diagnosis adds to gloomy developments around the virus as big cities once again turn into hotspots. New York reported the most new cases since May, while London is said to be at a “tipping point” with infections continuing to rise. Thousands of job cuts this week showed how firms are still wrestling with readjustments needed to survive.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-01/u-s-stocks-rise-traders-eye-japan-s-reopening-market-wrap

Finally, what do the bookies know that we don’t?

UK bookmakers halt US election betting after Trump tests positive for COVID-19

October 2, 20209:47 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Bookmakers in Britain suspended betting on the outcome of the U.S. election on Friday after President Donald Trump said he had tested positive for COVID-19.

Ladbrokes, Irish-based Paddy Power as well as online gambling exchange Betfair were among firms to halt all betting on the Nov. 3 contest.

“We have temporarily taken the U.S. election markets down as we await further updates - this is standard procedure and we wish Donald and Melania Trump well,” a spokeswoman for Ladbrokes said in a statement.

Betfair had put Democratic challenger Joe Biden’s probability of winning at 60% on Wednesday after the first U.S. presidential debate. Biden’s odds rose from 56% before the debate. Trump’s fell to 40%.

Betting on politics is illegal in the United States but permitted and common in Britain.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-betfair/betfair-suspends-betting-on-u-s-election-after-trump-catches-covid-19-idUKKBN26N1CP?il=0

After the vote: A timeline of how a president takes power

By NICHOLAS RICCARDI  September 24, 2020

Election Day is typically the end of the contentious fight for the White House. But it could just be the beginning. With both Democrats and Republicans preparing for possible legal fights over the vote count, the post-election process for seating the winner is getting a closer look.

The two-plus-months of often-ignored procedural steps are laid out by the U.S. Constitution and federal law and they’re far more complicated than simply handing over the keys to the White House to the winner.

Below are the key dates in the process, and what happens each step of the way.

Nov. 3: The first step is Election Day. Voters in all 50 states technically are not voting for a president, but for a slate of electors who are pledged to support one of the presidential candidates in a later vote. Voters can cast their ballots on or before Nov. 3, but voting stops when polls close. States then can count the votes.

Late November/Early December: Each state has its own deadline to certify the election. However, if ballot disputes, litigation or other factors delay the count, blowing this deadline doesn’t invoke a penalty in the presidential race. The big deadlines are still to come.

Dec. 8: This is known as the safe harbor deadline. That means that Congress cannnot challenge any electors named by this date in accordance with state law. Most states want their electors named by this deadline, to ensure Congress cannot disregard them.

Dec. 14: This is the date when electors are required to meet in their states and cast their ballots for president. Missing this deadline could mean a state’s electors don’t count in the presidential tally. Any electors seated between Dec. 8 and this date can still vote, but they could theoretically be challenged by Congress. Also, by this date the governor of each state must certify the state’s presidential election and slate of electors.

More

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-voting-archive-constitutions-elections-ebdd155bcd75922e724297f2c5e9a029

What Happened When Woodrow Wilson Came Down With the 1918 Flu?

The president contracted influenza while attending peace talks in Paris, but the nation was never told the full, true story

By Meilan Solly  smithsonianmag.com October 2, 2020 1:00PM

The 1918 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people worldwide—including some 675,000 Americans—in just 15 months. But Woodrow Wilson’s White House largely ignored the global health crisis, focusing instead on the Great War enveloping Europe and offering “no leadership or guidance of any kind,” as historian John M. Barry, author of The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, recently told Time’s Melissa August.

“Wilson wanted the focus to remain on the war effort,” Barry explained. “Anything negative was viewed as hurting morale.”

In private, the president acknowledged the threat posed by the virus, which struck a number of people in his inner circle, including his personal secretary, his oldest daughter and multiple Secret Service members. Even the White House sheep came down with the flu, reports Michael S. Rosenwald for the Washington Post.

Wilson himself contracted the disease shortly after arriving in Paris in April 1919 for peace talks aimed at determining the direction of a post-World War I Europe. As White House doctor Cary T. Grayson wrote in a letter to a friend, the diagnosis arrived at a decidedly inopportune moment: “The president was suddenly taken violently sick with the influenza at a time when the whole of civilization seemed to be in the balance.”

Grayson and the rest of Wilson’s staff downplayed the president’s illness, telling reporters that overwork and Paris’ “chilly and rainy weather” had sparked a cold and fever. On April 5, the Associated Press reported that Wilson was “not stricken with influenza.”

Behind the scenes, the president was suffering the full force of the virus’ effects. Unable to sit up in bed, he experienced coughing fits, gastrointestinal symptoms and a 103-degree fever.

More

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/what-happened-when-woodrow-wilson-came-down-1918-flu-180975972/?utm_source=smithsoniandaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20201002-daily-responsive&spMailingID=43602484&spUserID=NjUwNDIzNTUzNDE0S0&spJobID=1860176583&spReportId=MTg2MDE3NjU4MwS2

US Politics Betting Odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

“I have left orders to be awakened at any time during national emergency, even if I'm in a cabinet meeting.”

Ronald Reagan 

Covid-19 Corner                    

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

For some unknown reason and at some unknown time, GB and the world switched from reporting infections, turning all infections into “cases.” But we already know, not all infections lead to “hospital cases” to use the full term In fact, most of infections don’t become hospital cases.

In the 1918 flu pandemic they counted deaths.  By deaths comparison, we are at 1 million out of a 7.5 billion global population, v 50+ million estimated,  against about 2 billion in 1918.

Are we now overreacting to infections? Why toss the economy out with the bath water?

White House Cases Grow; Campaign Manager Has Covid: Virus Update

Bloomberg News

October 2, 2020, 11:22 PM GMT+1 Updated on

Donald Trump’s campaign manager Bill Stepien tested positive for Covid-19, expanding a group of infections among the U.S. president’s associates. Ex-White House adviser Kellyanne Conway also has the virus, as does Republican Senator Thom Tillis.

Trump went to hospital for coronavirus treatment and is receiving the antiviral drug Remdesivir. A top World Health Organization official said the White House cluster needs to be properly investigated. Democratic nominee Joe Biden tested negative, as did senior administration officials including Vice President Mike Pence.

New York reported its highest number of cases since June as infections surge in hot-spot neighborhoods. Indonesia plans to vaccinate 160 million people, more than half the country’s population, by the end of 2021. India’s coronavirus death toll passed the 100,000 mark, a milestone reached only by the U.S. and Brazil.

Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases pass 34.4 million; deaths exceed 1.02 million
• Hospital stay broadens Trump’s available treatments
• Women are dropping out of the workforce
• How Russia shortened the vaccine race to declare victory
• Europe’s banks lead the way in global jobs cull this year

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-02/new-york-spikes-again-who-faults-u-s-response-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

India's coronavirus death toll passes 100,000 with no sign of an end

October 3, 20205:26 AM  By Anuron Kumar Mitra, Devjyot Ghoshal

BENGALURU/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India’s death toll from the novel coronavirus rose past 100,000 on Saturday, only the third country in the world to reach that bleak milestone, after the United States and Brazil, and its epidemic shows no sign of abating.

Total deaths rose to 100,842, the health ministry said, while the tally of infections climbed to 6.47 million after a daily increase in cases of 79,476. India now has the highest rate of daily increase in infections in the world.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, faced with a collapsing economy after imposing a tough lockdown to try to stem the spread of the virus in late March, is pushing ahead with a full opening of the country.

Cinemas were allowed to re-open at half capacity this week and authorities can decide to re-open schools from the middle of this month.

Heading into winter and the holiday season, including the Hindu festival of Diwali next month, the world’s second most populous country could see a jump in cases, health experts said.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-cases/indias-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-100000-with-no-sign-of-an-end-idUKKBN26O03K?il=0

Some limited evidence new cases in England are levelling off - ONS survey

October 2, 202012:25 PM

LONDON (Reuters) - There is some limited evidence that a recent sharp rise in new COVID-19 cases in England is levelling off, Britain’s Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

New cases of COVID-19 in England were around 8,400 per day in the latest week to Sept. 24, down from around 9,600 per day during the previous week, an ONS estimate said.

“There is some limited evidence that the incidence rate may be levelling off following steep increases during August and September, however the wide credible intervals mean it is too early to say”, the ONS said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-infections/some-limited-evidence-new-cases-in-england-are-levelling-off-ons-survey-idUKKBN26N1VG?il=0

Some severe COVID-19 cases linked to genetic mutations or antibodies that attack the body

Date: September 24, 2020  Source: Howard Hughes Medical Institute

Summary: Two new studies offer an explanation for why COVID-19 cases can be so variable. A subset of patients has mutations in key immunity genes; other patients have auto-antibodies that target the same components of the immune system. Both circumstances could contribute to severe forms of the disease.

People infected by the novel coronavirus can have symptoms that range from mild to deadly. Now, two new analyses suggest that some life-threatening cases can be traced to weak spots in patients' immune systems.

At least 3.5 percent of study patients with severe COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, have mutations in genes involved in antiviral defense. And at least 10 percent of patients with severe disease create "auto-antibodies" that attack the immune system, instead of fighting the virus. The results, reported in two papers in the journal Science on September 24, 2020, identify some root causes of life-threatening COVID-19, says study leader Jean-Laurent Casanova, a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator at The Rockefeller University.

Seeing these harmful antibodies in so many patients -- 101 out of 987 -- was "a stunning observation," he says. "These two papers provide the first explanation for why COVID-19 can be so severe in some people, while most others infected by the same virus are okay."

The work has immediate implications for diagnostics and treatment, Casanova says. If someone tests positive for the virus, they should "absolutely" be tested for the auto-antibodies, too, he adds, "with medical follow-up if those tests are positive." It's possible that removing such antibodies from the blood could ease symptoms of the disease.

Casanova's team, in collaboration with clinicians around the world, first began enrolling COVID-19 patients in their study in February. At the time, they were seeking young people with severe forms of the disease to investigate whether these patients might have underlying weaknesses in their immune systems that made them especially vulnerable to the virus.

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200924141529.htm

Vitamin D linked to low virus death rate, study finds

New COVID-19 research finds relationship in data from 20 European countries

Date: May 7, 2020

Source: Anglia Ruskin University

Summary: A new study has found an association between low average levels of vitamin D and high numbers of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates across 20 European countries.

----The research, led by Dr Lee Smith of Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) and Mr Petre Cristian Ilie, lead urologist of Queen Elizabeth Hospital King's Lynn NHS Foundation Trust, is published in the journal Aging Clinical and Experimental Research.

Previous observational studies have reported an association between low levels of vitamin D and susceptibility to acute respiratory tract infections. Vitamin D modulates the response of white blood cells, preventing them from releasing too many inflammatory cytokines. The COVID-19 virus is known to cause an excess of pro-inflammatory cytokines.

Italy and Spain have both experienced high COVID-19 mortality rates, and the new study shows that both countries have lower average vitamin D levels than most northern European countries. This is partly because people in southern Europe, particularly the elderly, avoid strong sun, while skin pigmentation also reduces natural vitamin D synthesis.

The highest average levels of vitamin D are found in northern Europe, due to the consumption of cod liver oil and vitamin D supplements, and possibly less sun avoidance. Scandinavian nations are among the countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates per head of population in Europe.

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507131012.htm

2020 Aug; 20: 10–21.

Published online 2020 Jun 7. doi: 10.1016/j.nfs.2020.06.001

PMCID: PMC7276229

Vitamin D deficiency and co-morbidities in COVID-19 patients – A fatal relationship?

1. Introduction

Infections of the respiratory tract are more frequent in the winter months and especially in the northern latitudes than they are in summer [¹]. This obviously also applies to the COVID-19 infectious disease that briefly spread all over the world in the winter months and became a pandemic [^2,3]. A common feature of the winter months and the inhabitants of all countries north of the 42nd parallel is a hypovitaminosis D that frequently occurs during this period [⁴]. In addition during cold temperature the virus will be more easily transmitted. This raises the question of whether an inadequate vitamin D supply has an influence on the progression and severity of COVID-19 disease.

A low vitamin D status, measured as the plasma level of the transport form of vitamin D, 25(OH)D,is widespread worldwide and is mainly found in regions of northern latitudes, but also in southern countries [⁵]. In Europe, vitamin D deficiency is widely prevalent during the winter months and affects mainly elderly people and migrants. In Scandinavia only 5% of the population is affected by a low vitamin D status, in Germany, France and Italy more than 25%, particularly older people e.g. in Austria up to 90% of senior citizens [^6,7]. In Scandinavian countries, the low incidence of vitamin D deficiency may be due to the traditional consumption of cod liver oil rich in vitamin D and A or to genetic factors resulting in higher synthesis of vitamin D in the epidermal layer [⁸]. Taken together, low vitamin D status is common in Europe with the exception of the Scandinavian countries. The calculated COVID-19 mortality rate from 12 European countries shows a significant (P = .046) inverse correlation with the mean 25(OH)D plasma concentration [⁹].

This raises the question whether insufficient vitamin D supply has an influence on the course of COVID-19 disease? An analysis of the distribution of Covid-19 infections showed a correlation between geographical location (30–50° N+), mean temperature between 5–11 °C and low humidity [¹⁰]. In a retrospective cohort study (1382 hospitalized patients) 326 died, Among them 70.6% were black patients. However, black race was not independently associated with higher mortality [¹¹]. An excess mortality (2 to sixfold have been described in African-Americans with average latitudes of their state of residence in higher latitudes (> 40) [¹²]. The mortality of COVID-19 (cases/ million population) shows a clear dependence on latitude. Below latitude 35, mortality decreases markedly [¹³]. Indeed, there are exceptions e.g. Brazil (tenfold higher than all other latin American countries – except mexico), however, the management of the pandemic may increase infection risk.

More

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276229/

Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

FDA information. https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live

https://wuflu.live/

“I have wondered at times about what the Ten Commandment’s would have looked like if Moses had run them through the U.S. Congress.”

Ronald Reagan

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, and science in general, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Ultraviolet LEDs proposed for skin-safe vitamin D production

By Ben Coxworth  October 01, 2020

Even though we're warned about the harmful effects of the ultraviolet (UV) rays in sunlight, they're essential for the production of vitamin D in the body. Now, scientists are claiming that UV LEDs could serve as a safe alternative to sunlight, when the latter isn't available in sufficient amounts.

Among other things, vitamin D helps reduce the loss of bone density and muscle mass, particularly in the elderly. And while the vitamin can be taken in supplement form, it's most effective when naturally generated by the body, in response to sunlight exposure.

Unfortunately, people living at northern latitudes may not get enough sunlight during the winter, when the daylight hours are reduced. Individuals with reduced mobility – such as the elderly – may also not be able to go outdoors often or long enough for sufficient UV exposure.

On the flipside, though, excessive exposure has been linked to health problems such as skin cancer and premature aging of the skin.

With this quandary in mind, researchers at Japan's Nagoya University started by determining the minimum dose and intensity of UV light required to generate sufficient vitamin D production in mice. Next, mice that had been genetically altered to age at an accelerated rate were irradiated twice a week by UV LEDs that were set to those levels. A control group received no UV exposure.

After 12 weeks of the treatment, it was found that the UV-exposed mice had higher blood serum vitamin D levels, along with increased bone density, muscle mass and strength. Importantly, though, no skin damage was observed.

The researchers are now developing a portable UV LED device for use by humans. It's intended to be mainly utilized by seniors to prevent or cure osteosarcopenia, which is a combination of decreased bone density and decreased muscle mass.

"With this device, all elderly people will be able to get enough vitamin D, the same amount or more than from sunlight, in an easy and safe manner at low cost," says the lead scientist, Prof. Yoshihiro Nishida. "It could be a promising approach for the prevention and treatment of this disease."

A paper on the research was recently published in the journal Scientific Reports.

Source: Nagoya University

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/ultraviolet-leds-vitamin-d/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=d256b6cede-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_10_02_08_26&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-d256b6cede-90625829

This weekend’s musical diversion. Verdi, and probably the most famous chorus  in opera. With English sub titles too. But with Covid-19 can such a large chorus ever be assembled again?  Can any surviving opera company afford them in the “new normal.”

Nabucco Hebrew Slaves Chorus "Va, pensiero" Verdi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUUVnJjkcAM

This weekend’s number problem. Can you divide by zero? Will the dollar go to zero or infinity? Does Chairman Powell have a clue? What happens when the Bank of England goes to negative rates? Zero or “infinity and beyond?”

Indeterminate: the hidden power of 0 divided by 0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc0M1o8tuPo

“We can’t help everyone, but everyone can help someone.”

Ronald Reagan