SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about
2% on Monday, lifted by comments from doctors for U.S. President Donald Trump
suggesting he could be discharged from hospital as soon as Monday, just a few
days after his positive test for COVID-19 sparked widespread alarm.
Trump's health update eased political
uncertainty in global markets, pushing Brent LCOc1 CLc1
Prices had slumped more than 4% on Friday
amid uncertainty surrounding Trump’s health, adding to concern that rising
coronavirus case numbers that could dampen global economic recovery.
But analysts said Monday’s rebound was
driven by an easing of the worst fears about Trump’s health condition, albeit
clouded by some mixed signals.
---- Prices were also supported by an
expanding workers’ strike in Norway on Monday that could reduce the country’s
production capacity by as much as 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day
(boepd) or 8% of its total output, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas
Association.
These offset indications of rising oil
supply in the market.
Libya, a member of the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has seen a near three-fold rise in its
output which hit 270,000 barrels per day last week after eastern forces eased a
blockade on the country’s oil infrastructure.
October
3, 202011:17
PM By Kate
Holton , Aakriti Bhalla
LONDON (Reuters) - Cineworld CINE.L , the world's
second-biggest cinema operator, said it was considering temporarily closing all
its screens in the United States and Britain after studios pulled major
releases such as the latest James Bond film.
The
Regal cinema owner, which began reopening in July after COVID-19 lockdown
restrictions started to ease, employs 37,482 people across 787 venues in the
U.S., Britain and central Europe, with 546 sites in America.
“We can confirm we are considering the
temporary closure of our U.K. and US cinemas, but a final decision has not yet
been reached. Once a decision has been made we will update all staff and
customers as soon as we can,” the company said.
Earlier, a person familiar with the
situation had gone further, saying Cineworld would close all its U.S., UK and
Ireland screens this week.
The release of the new James Bond movie, “No
Time To Die”, was pushed into next year on Friday, crushing hopes for a 2020
industry rebound as rising rates of the coronavirus prompt new restrictions and
keep viewers away.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cineworld-grp/regal-owner-cineworld-considering-closing-all-u-s-uk-screens-idUKKBN26P00F
Next, the true cost of Zirp. Nowhere to hedge or hide.
Lengthy era of rock bottom
interest rates leaving its mark on U.S. economy David
J. Lynch , The Washington Post
Oct. 3, 2020Updated: Oct. 3, 2020
11:35 a.m.
Even before the Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates near
zero for at least three more years, Dan Bienvenue knew he had a battle on his
hands.
As chief investment officer of the nearly $400 billion California Public
Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), which provides benefits for 2 million current
and future retirees, Bienvenue must earn an annual return of at least 7%.
That's not easy when the safe investments that pension funds usually
rely on are paying less than 1%, a consequence of low interest rates.
CalPERS, the nation's largest public pension plan, fell short of its
goal in the fiscal year that ended June 30. Now, along with embracing riskier
investments like private equity, Bienvenue is gambling on making low rates work
for him, by borrowing billions of dollars in hopes of juicing the pension
plan's returns.
"We have to take more risk in some places," he said.
"...Systemically low interest rates, the net effect makes the challenge
more difficult."
CalPERS' shift is just one example of how an era of persistently low
interest rates has rippled across the economy, altering incentives while
benefiting some groups and hurting others.
Consumers have snapped up 0% auto loans and mortgages at sub-3% rates.
That's helped the economy by driving sales of new homes and automobiles.
Depressed rates also have fueled a rise in corporate and government
debt, aggravated trends toward greater inequality and left a wounded economy
more dependent upon fiscal support from lawmakers at a time when Congress is
intensely polarized.
Rates have been stuck at ultra-low levels for most of the past 12 years
because of chronically weak demand in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The recovery
from the 2008 financial crisis was the most anemic since World War II and -
despite President Dopnald Trump's claims to have produced the greatest economy
in history - the U.S. economy grew at an average rate of just 2.5% from 2017
through the end of last year.
---- Once
an emergency remedy for economic collapse, ultra-low rates now are a fixture of
the U.S. landscape. It may be a decade, perhaps longer, before they return to
the levels seen in the 1990′s and early 2000′s, economists said.
"Yes, this is a very striking environment compared to the preceding
150 to 200 years of the modern economy, with the possible exception of the Great
Depression," said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for
International Economics.
More
https://www.chron.com/business/article/Lengthy-era-of-rock-bottom-interest-rates-leaving-15618933.php
There’s No Place to Hide Anymore
When the Stock Market Plunges All the
obvious hedges against stock-market volatility—Treasurys, gold, bitcoin and the
VIX—stopped working in September
Oct. 3, 2020 5:30 am ET
September hurt shareholders, not only because stocks fell
but also because the things they’d bought to protect their portfolios also
fell. From the S&P 500’s high on the 2nd of the month, stocks, Treasurys,
gold, bitcoin and the VIX volatility index all dropped.
This total failure of
hedging
It wasn’t just the normal pattern of asset returns that
broke down. Within the stock market
Within the S&P 500, cheap or “value” stocks
outperformed
---- The problem showed up in Japan in the 1990s after the
country slashed interest rates and government bond yields plunged. But it has
become most obvious with Germany. In the eurozone crisis of May 2011 to July
2012, German 10-year bunds gained 25%, similar to the loss on eurozone stocks.
But by this year the plummeting yield and already-negative interest rates meant
there was little more to gain: Bunds made almost nothing from the February
stock-market high to the low, and have provided essentially nothing since
(Japanese bonds have lost investors a small amount).
---- Of course, the Fed could follow Japan and Europe in taking interest rates
negative
Even negative rates only provide a brief respite, though:
The European Central Bank reckons it could in principle go as low as minus 1%,
but if German bund yields followed suit, the price gain for investors would
still only be 7%. That doesn’t provide much protection against stock-price
falls.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/theres-no-place-to-hide-anymore-when-the-stock-market-plunges-11601717401
Finally, what happens if a US president becomes
incapacitated.
How the 25th Amendment works if
president becomes too sick to lead Oct. 2, 2020 /
7:16 PM
Oct. 2 (UPI) -- With President Donald Trump hospitalized with COVID-19 Friday,
questions turn to what happens if he loses the ability to govern.
Marine One transported the president to Walter Reed
Army Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., less than one day after his diagnosis,
indicating perhaps a more serious downturn to his health.
---- The vast majority of people with the novel coronavirus
are asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms, but what happens if Trump becomes
too sick to carry out his duties as leader of the United States?
According to the Constitution, if the president becomes
incapacitated, the 25th Amendment is invoked, transferring the the power of
the office to the vice president temporarily.
The 25th Amendment was ratified in 1967 after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy , laying out the terms of
succession should the leader of the country become ill, resign, be removed from
office or even die. There are provisions in the amendment that lay out what
happens if the president chooses to transfer power and what happens if that
transfer needs to be done involuntarily.
Former Presidents Ronald
Reagan and George W. Bush each invoked the amendment during
their presidencies -- Bush did so twice -- temporarily transferring power to
their vice presidents during medical procedures in which they were under
general anesthesia. Both had the ability to make those decisions for
themselves, and did so in writing to Congress.
Should the president be incapacitated and unable to make
that decision, though, the vice president, Mike Pence ,
and a majority of Cabinet members must alert Congress in writing and install
the vice president as acting president.
If the president is able to dispute the invocation of the
25th Amendment, again, the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet must
inform Congress in writing that the president is unable to perform his duties
within four days. Congress must then pass a two-thirds vote to remove the
president from office.
Pence and his wife, second lady Karen Pence, have each
tested negative for the virus.
Should the vice president also become incapacitated,
though, the Presidential Succession Act defines the order of succession as:
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi , President Pro Tempore of the
Senate Chuck Grassley , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ,
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , Defense Secretary Mark Esper ,
Attorney General William Barr , Interior Secretary David Bernhardt,
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue , Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross ,
Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar ,
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson ,
Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos ,
Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie, then Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf .
Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao
is ineligible to become president because she's not a natural-born citizen.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/10/02/How-the-25th-Amendment-works-if-president-becomes-too-sick-to-lead/2601601675260/
"I was under medication when I
made the decision to burn the tapes.''
President Richard Nixon
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Global Cases Top 35 Million; Paris
Bars May Shut: Virus Update Bloomberg News October
4, 2020, 10:45 PM GMT+1 Updated on October 5, 2020, 5:51 AM GMT+1
Global coronavirus infections surpassed 35 million as focus
remained on the health of Donald Trump while Europe faced rising infections.
Stocks climbed clouded accounts
France plans to shut down bars close three-tier lockdown system “very tough”
Key Developments:
Global Tracker :
Cases pass 35 million; deaths exceed 1.03 millionTrump recuperates amid questions about his health and
campaign Trump’s Covid treatment and
what the options are: QuickTake Results of Covid-19 tests
for U.S. politicians, officials: List After vaccine sprint would
come distribution slog: QuickTake https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/new-york-cracks-down-on-hot-spots-as-cases-surge-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
India's coronavirus infections
rise to 6.63 million October 5, 20205:24
AM
BENGALURU (Reuters) - India’s coronavirus
case tally rose by 74,442 in the last 24 hours to 6.63 million on Monday
morning, data from the health ministry showed.
Deaths from coronavirus infections rose by
903 to 102,685, the ministry said.
India’s death toll from the novel
coronavirus rose past 100,000 on Saturday, only the third country in the world
to reach that bleak milestone, after the United States and Brazil, and its
epidemic shows no sign of abating.
Last week, India further eased restrictions
and permitted states to open schools and movie theatres.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-cases/indias-coronavirus-infections-rise-to-6-63-million-idUKKBN26Q0DY
Paris bars to close as French
capital placed on maximum COVID alert October 4, 20209:24
PM
PARIS (Reuters) - Paris is to be placed on
maximum COVID-19 alert, meaning bars will be forced to close for two weeks from
Tuesday and restaurants will have to put in place new sanitary protocols to
stay open, the prime minister’s office said.
Prime Minister Jean Castex’s office said
there had been no improvement in the Paris region since the capital passed all
three of the government’s criteria for being put on the highest level of alert
mid last week.
Working from home should be prioritised “now
more than ever” in the Paris area and university lecture halls should be no
more than half full, Castex’s office said in a statement.
The reinforced restrictions will take effect
from Tuesday.
“These measures, indispensable in the fight
to curb the virus’ spread, will apply to Paris and the three departments immediately
surrounding it, for a duration of two weeks,” it said.
For a city to be placed on maximum alert,
the incidence rate must exceed 100 infections per 100,000 among elderly
inhabitants and 250 per 100,000 among the general public, while at least 30% of
intensive care beds are reserved for coronavirus patients.
A week ago, restaurants and bars were shut
down for a fortnight in Marseille, the southern city at the epicentre of the
second wave, prompting protests and an unsuccessful legal challenge.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-france/paris-bars-to-close-as-french-capital-placed-on-maximum-covid-alert-idUKKBN26P0YU
New York City mayor seeks to
lockdown coronavirus hotspots starting Wednesday October 4, 20206:53
PM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York City Mayor
Bill de Blasio, to contain the spread of COVID-19 in what was once the U.S.
epicenter of the pandemic, said on Sunday he is moving to shut non-essential
businesses as well as schools in nine neighborhoods identified as coronavirus
clusters, starting on Wednesday.
Seeking state approval for the lockdown, de
Blasio said it would affect nine ZIP codes where coronavirus positivity rates
have spiked, sometimes as the result of failure to social distance and wear
face masks. He said neighborhoods in another 11 ZIP codes were on a “watch
list” because of their rising positivity rates.
New York is one of only 18 states where
cases have not risen over the past two weeks, according to a Reuters analysis.
Nine states have reported record increases in COVID-19 cases over the last
seven days, mostly in the upper Midwest and West where chilly weather is
forcing more activities indoors.
If New York Governor Andrew Cuomo approves
the shutdown, neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens would be ordered to close
all non-essential businesses, restaurants and public and private schools. About
100 public schools and 200 private schools would be closed for anywhere from
two to four weeks, if state approval is secured, he said.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-new-york-city/new-york-city-mayor-seeks-to-lockdown-coronavirus-hotspots-starting-wednesday-idUKKBN26P0TL?il=0
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
"Sure, there are dishonest men in local government. But
there are dishonest men in national government too."
President Richard Nixon
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Graphene-based circuit yields
clean, limitless power Oct. 2, 2020 /
5:58 PM
Oct. 2 (UPI) -- Scientists have developed a new graphene-based circuit capable of
producing clean, limitless power. Researchers suggest the energy-harvesting
circuit -- described Friday in the journal Physical Review E -- could be used to power
small, low-voltage devices and sensors.
The circuit's ability confirms the theory -- developed by
the study's authors, a group of physicists at the University of Arkansas --
that micron-sized sheets of freestanding graphene naturally move in a way
conducive to energy harvesting.
The breakthrough also contradicts the assertion by Richard
Feynman that so-called Brownian motion, the thermal motion of atoms, cannot
perform work. But lab tests showed the Brownian motion of atoms in freestanding
sheets of graphene can generate an alternating current.
Famously, physicist Léon Brillouin proved that a single
diode, a one-way electrical gate, added to a circuit was not sufficient to turn
Brownian motion into energy. The team of physicists at the University of
Arkansas developed their novel circuit using two diodes.
Positioned in opposition, the two diodes allow current to
flow in both directions, turning the alternating current into a pulsing direct
current. The pulsing direct current, taking separate paths back-and-forth
through the circuit, performs work on a load resistor.
"We also found that the on-off, switch-like behavior
of the diodes actually amplifies the power delivered, rather than reducing it,
as previously thought," lead researcher Paul Thibado, professor of physics
at Arkansas, said in a news release. "The rate of change in resistance
provided by the diodes adds an extra factor to the power."
According to the researchers, the thermal movement in the
graphene and circuit is inherent in the material, not the result of temperature
differences between the two components -- no heat flows between the graphene
and circuit.
"This means that the second law of thermodynamics is
not violated, nor is there any need to argue that 'Maxwell's Demon' is
separating hot and cold electrons," Thibado said.
Tests also showed that the graphene's Brownian motion
yielded low-frequency currents -- good news for the technology's application,
as most electronics are more efficient at lower frequencies.
"People may think that current flowing in a resistor
causes it to heat up, but the Brownian current does not. In fact, if no current
was flowing, the resistor would cool down," Thibado said. "What we
did was reroute the current in the circuit and transform it into something
useful."
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2020/10/02/Graphene-based-circuit-yields-clean-limitless-power/1571601661030/
US Politics Betting Odds https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
"Goddamn it, get in and get those files. Blow the safe and
get them. The way I want that handled is…just to break in. Break in and take it
out! You understand? … You are to break into the place, rifle the files, and
bring them out…Just go in and take it! Go in around eight or nine o'clock. And
clean it up."
President Richard Nixon in 1971, ordering his chief of staff,
H.R. Haldeman, to break into the Brookings Institute, where he believed there
were files that could be used to blackmail former President Lyndon Johnson. The
conversation took place a year to the day before the Watergate break-in.
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