Wednesday 31 March 2021

A Dodgy Month-End. Now What? Inflation?

Baltic Dry Index. 2103 -59 Brent Crude 64.46

Spot Gold 1680

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100 

Coronavirus Cases 31/03/21 World 128,804,550

Deaths 2,815,993

My daughter asked me when she came home from school, “What’s the financial crisis?” and I said, it’s something that happens every five to seven years.

Jamie Dimon. CEO JP Morgan.

It is month-end and end of quarter, ordinarily a time to dress up the stock casino indexes to boost money manager bonuses and prevent hedge fund client redemptions.

But this is no ordinary time. Many banks are still reeling from the effects of the Archegos Capital Management crisis, with no certainty that the distressed selling is over.  

US bond yields are  rising again, never comfortable news for stocks.

President Biden is just about to announce his latest Magic Money Tree plan of up to 3 trillion newly created fiat currency dollars for infrastructure projects. 

While in the real economy, supply chain disruption has increased with each successive month of 2021.  With more disruption to come from last week’s Suez Canal blockage.

Probably not a good day to try faking the end of quarter numbers. Better luck next quarter.

Asian shares defensive, set for monthly loss on bond rout

March 31, 2021