Special Update 13/03/2021 USA – Free Money For All.

Baltic Dry Index. 1960 -10  Brent Crude 69.22

Spot Gold 1727

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 13/03/21 World 119,613,949

Deaths 2,651,733

Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.

Ronald Reagan

A great Amazon River of free Magic Money Tree money is about to pour over most Americans starting from today.  In the US stock casinos they are already booking their profits.

But wait it gets better. According to the House Democrats and President Biden, there’s another two trillion dollars more Magic Money Tree money coming for “infrastructure” possibly as early as May.

Not to worry say the US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell, there’s plenty more fiat money where that came from, and trust us, there’ll be no inflation, honest, cross my heart and hope to die.

Well, if they say so it must be true, right? I mean, they wouldn’t lie about the future, right. They have a crystal ball, don’t they?

But, just supposing they’re wrong, what happens then?

U.S. stocks close mixed as Dow notches fifth straight record high

March 12, 2021  10:59 AM  By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The blue-chip Dow powered to its fifth consecutive record high on Friday and the S&P 500 closed slightly higher as investors bought shares that should benefit from a strong reopening of the U.S. economy, an outlook signaled by rising yields in the bond market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled after rebounding more than 6% over the past three sessions as the rising bond yields revived inflation worries and dulled the appeal of high-growth technology shares.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest weekly percentage gains since early February after President Joe Biden signed into law on Thursday one of the largest U.S. fiscal stimulus bills and data reinforced convictions the economy was headed to a high-growth recovery.

The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has raised fears of a sudden tapering of monetary stimulus and put downward pressure on Wall Street in recent weeks.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note hit 1.642% on Friday, the highest level since February of last year. [US/]

Boeing Co rose 6.82% to lead the Dow and S&P 500 higher. The rising Dow and tumbling Nasdaq reflect an ongoing sell-off in tech as investors buy cyclical and underpriced value stocks that are expected to do well as the economy recovers.

For tech stocks to continue to flourish you need low rates, and in effect slower growth, said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of hedge fund Great Hill Capital LLC.

But with the stimulus package the economy is likely to expand 7% to 9% this year and pressure interest rates, he said.

“That’s why you’re seeing rates rise today because the reopening is happening faster and stronger than anticipated. And that’s when value and cyclicals and economically sensitive stocks outperform,” Hayes said.

The speedy distribution of vaccines and more fiscal aid have spurred concerns of rising inflation despite assurances from the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative policy. All eyes will be on the central bank’s policy meeting next week for further cues on inflation.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-mixed-as-dow-notches-fifth-straight-record-high-idUSKBN2B418M

First U.S. stimulus payments to hit bank accounts this weekend: officials

March 13, 2021  12:00 AM   By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans will see the first direct deposits from President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package hit their bank accounts this weekend, Treasury and Internal Revenue Service officials said on Friday.

A first tranche of $1,400 stimulus payments was processed Friday, with additional large batches of payments to be sent via direct deposits or through the mail as checks or debit cards in coming weeks, the officials said.

That means a family of four earning up to $150,000 will receive $5,600. Unlike the first two payments, which were limited to children under 17, this round of checks will also go to all qualifying dependents, including college students, adults with disabilities, parents and grandparents, the officials said.

They stressed that no action was required by taxpayers to receive the payments, which will be based on 2019 or 2020 tax returns, depending on which was the latest filed, or data supplied to the IRS last year by non-filers.

The IRS will also automatically send payments to those who typically do not file tax returns, but received Social Security and Railroad Retirement Board benefits, Supplemental Security Income or Veteran benefits in 2020, they said.

“The goals is to get these out at fast as possible,” said one of the officials.

Beginning Monday, taxpayers can log onto the Get My Payment here tool on the IRS website to check the status of these payments.

Officials urged people to file their tax returns electronically to ease the process, noting they could also qualify for other relief, including child tax credits.

---- Nearly 160 million U.S. households will receive some $400 billion in direct payments of $1,400 per person, helping individuals earning up to $75,000 annually and couples up to $150,000. Those earning more, but less than $80,000 per individual or $160,000 per couple, will receive reduced amounts.

Officials said they were coordinating with the Social Security Administration, other government agencies and financial institutions to avoid problems seen during the last round of stimulus payments, when checks went out to thousands of people who were deceased.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-stimulus-checks/first-u-s-stimulus-payments-to-hit-bank-accounts-this-weekend-officials-idUSKBN2B42VF

Pelosi says U.S. lawmakers must work 'swiftly' on major infrastructure package

March 12, 2021  10:27 PM  By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Friday she has directed key Democratic lawmakers to begin working with Republicans on a major infrastructure package.

Democrat Pelosi, who met on Thursday with the chairs of U.S. House of Representatives committees that will oversee the infrastructure package, said in a statement: “Congress must work swiftly ... to craft a big, bold and transformational infrastructure package.”

A Pelosi aide told Reuters infrastructure is “next in terms of top priorities.”

One big question mark remains how to pay for a massive boost in spending, which had prevented Congress from approving a big package for more than a decade.

Pelosi said she hoped the measures will address transportation as well as “other critical needs in energy and broadband, education and housing, water systems and other priorities.”

As a candidate, President Joe Biden pledged to invest $2 trillion in fixing highways, bridges and airports; building climate-resilient homes; wiring cities for broadband internet; and encouraging the manufacturing of fuel-efficient cars and installing 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations.

House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio told Reuters on Wednesday his “tentative timeline” is to have his committee’s portion of a major infrastructure bill approved by the panel in May. “It is going to be green and it is going to be big,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-infrastructure/pelosi-says-u-s-lawmakers-must-work-swiftly-on-major-infrastructure-package-idUSL1N2LA2XG

Inflation Is Already Creeping Into Some Corners of the World

By Michelle Jamrisko

11 March 2021, 22:00 GMT

Metals, semiconductors and oil have all seen big price rises

·         Food, shipping too; Brazil shows fiscal aid can push prices up

The big question in financial markets is whether the post-pandemic recovery will bring a burst of inflation. In some corners of the world economy, it’s already arrived.

In commodities like soybeans or copper, industries like shipping and countries like Brazil, prices have been climbing rapidly –- for reasons directly tied to the disruptions of Covid-19, the policy response, or the surge in demand that comes with hopes of recovery.

None of this is enough to settle the great inflation debate one way or the other.

Hawks say that pockets of inflation today will turn into across-the-board price increases tomorrow, with stimulus providing the fuel. Skeptics see price rises as largely driven by temporary spurts or bottlenecks -– and point out that similar alarm bells were sounded after the 2008 crash, when inflation never showed up.

Following are some of the areas already seeing a surge in prices -- and how they connect to the broader inflation picture.

Government efforts to lift economies out of the pandemic slump have involved spending on infrastructure projects, and financial support for households who spent some of the cash on electronic gear. Both are contributing to roaring demand for metals that’s pushed prices steadily higher.

Copper has been rising for almost a year, a rally that accelerated in February before falling back this month. Iron ore and nickel also hit multi-year highs, and steel prices more than doubled in the last six months.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/inflation-is-already-creeping-into-some-corners-of-the-world

Finally, be careful of what you wish for. Is the USA about to morph into Sweden? But if everyone becomes a ward of the state, how long before serfdom returns?

COVID relief bill could permanently alter social safety net

By ASHRAF KHALIL and ALAN FRAM  March 12, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package is being hailed by Democrats and progressive policy advocates as a generational expansion of the social safety net, providing food and housing assistance, greater access to health care and direct aid to families in what amounts to a broad-based attack on the cycle of poverty.

With more than $6 billion for food security-related programs, more than $25 billion in emergency rental assistance, nearly $10 billion in emergency mortgage aid for homeowners, and extensions of already-expanded unemployment payments through early September, the package is full of provisions designed to help families and individuals survive and recover from pandemic-induced economic hardships.

“When you stand back and look at it, that’s when you really can appreciate the sheer scope of it,” said Ellen Vollinger, legal director for the Food Research & Action Center, a food-security advocacy group. “The scope is both impressive and much needed.”

Several aspects seem targeted at restructuring the country’s social safety net and actually lifting people out of poverty. It’s the kind of ambition and somewhat old school Democratic Party ideal that has observers referencing former President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the New Deal.

“We haven’t seen a shift like this seen since FDR. It’s saying families are too big to fail, children are too big to fail, the elderly are too big to fail,” said Andre Perry, senior fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. “It’s a recognition that the social safety net is not working and was not working prior to the pandemic.”

More

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-access-to-health-care-health-coronavirus-pandemic-poverty-3bff45f1be9d5f7eb8cd7c14a51c6732?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=March12_Morning_Wire&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers

By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.

John Maynard Keynes

Covid-19 Corner             

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine highly efficient against U.K. variant in Israel

March 11, 2021 / 12:11 PM

March 11 (UPI) -- Pharma giant Pfizer said Thursday that the coronavirus vaccine it developed with BioNTech has proven in real-world studies to be overwhemingly effective in Israel, the second analysis of its kind in the last three weeks.

Pfizer said it, BioNTech and Israel's health ministry examined the effects of the vaccine between January 17 and March 6 and found it to be 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, severe and critical disease and death.

The companies said the results are significant because they cover a period when the B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant was the most dominant strain in Israel, indicating that the vaccine works well against the mutation.

"We are extremely encouraged that the real-world effectiveness data," Dr. Luis Jodar, senior vice president and chief medical officer of Pfizer Vaccines, said in a statement.

RELATED Study: Risk of severe allergic reaction to COVID-19 vaccines very low

They also said the vaccine proved over the study period to be 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic cases.

"The findings ... are particularly meaningful as we look to disrupt the spread of the virus around the globe," Jodar added.

The study also notes that those who weren't vaccinated were 44 times more likely to develop symptomatic COVID-19 and 29 times more likely to die of infection.

Late last month, Pfizer released data from the first real-world study of its vaccine, clinical information that was collected after the vaccine was approved for widespread use in global populations in December. Tested among 600,000 recipients, that data showed the vaccine to be 94% effective in preventing symptomatic cases.

The data released by Pfizer, BioNTech and the health ministry will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal, officials said.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/03/11/Pfizer-says-COVID-19-vaccine-highly-efficient-against-UK-variant-in-Israel/4421615478171/

Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

FDA information. https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

 

Inflation is the one form of taxation that can be imposed without legislation.

Milton Friedman

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

Scientists stabilize atomically thin boron for practical use

Borophane is stable outside a vacuum, opening possibilities for real-world applications

Date:  March 11, 2021

Source:  Northwestern University

Summary:  By binding borophene with atomic hydrogen, researchers have created borophane -- a version of atomically thin boron that is stable at standard temperatures and air pressures.

Northwestern University researchers have, for the first time, created borophane -- atomically thin boron that is stable at standard temperatures and air pressures.

Researchers have long been excited by the promise of borophene -- a single-atom-thick sheet of boron -- because of its strength, flexibility and electronics properties. Stronger, lighter and more flexible than graphene, borophene could potentially revolutionize batteries, electronics, sensors, photovoltaics and quantum computing.

Unfortunately, borophene only exists inside of an ultrahigh vacuum chamber, limiting its practical use outside the lab. By bonding borophene with atomic hydrogen, the Northwestern team created borophane, which has the same exciting properties as borophene and is stable outside of a vacuum.

"The problem is that if you take borophene out of the ultrahigh vacuum and into air, it immediately oxidizes," said Mark C. Hersam, who led the research. "Once it oxidizes, it is no longer borophene and is no longer conductive. The field will continue to be hindered in exploring its real-world use unless borophene can be rendered stable outside an ultrahigh vacuum chamber."

The research will be published March 12 in the journal Science and featured on the cover. The study marks the first time scientists report the synthesis of borophane.

----Although borophene is frequently compared to its super-material predecessor graphene, borophene is much more difficult to create. Graphene is the atomically thin version of graphite, a layered material comprising stacks of two-dimensional sheets. To remove a two-dimensional layer from graphite, scientists simply peel it off.

Boron, on the other hand, is not layered when in bulk form. Five years ago, Hersam and collaborators created borophene for the first time by growing it directly on a substrate. The resulting material, however, was highly reactive, making it vulnerable to oxidation.

"The boron atoms in borophene are highly susceptible to further chemical reactions," Hersam said. "We found that once the boron atoms are bonded with hydrogen, they will no longer react with oxygen when in open air."

Now that borophane can be taken out into the real world, Hersam said researchers will be able to more rapidly explore borophane's properties and its potential applications.

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210311142221.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

In follow up to last week’s Special Update questioning our return later in the year to mass flying, and what can go wrong, LIR reader Bud sent along the following article. Thank you Bud, and all who send along some very interesting, sometimes baffling, interesting articles.

Airline pilots making in-flight errors say they’re ‘rusty’ because of pandemic

By Hugo MartínStaff Writer   Jan. 29, 2021 5 AM PT

A pilot preparing to pull a passenger jet away from an airport gate forgot to disengage the parking brake, damaging a part of a towing vehicle that was trying to pull the plane to the runway.

Another pilot had so much trouble landing a passenger jet on a windy day that it took three tries before the plane touched down successfully.

In another incident, the first officer forgot to turn on the anti-icing mechanism that ensures the altitude and airspeed sensors on the outside of the plane are not blocked by ice. Luckily for the passengers, the plane completed its flight without problems.

These incidents are among at least a dozen flying errors and mishaps since May that pilots and first officers have attributed, at least in part, to being out of practice because the COVID-19 pandemic — which pushed air travel demand to the lowest levels in decades — had kept them away from flying for a while.

“Because I had not flown in a few months, I was rusty,” the first officer who forgot to activate the anti-icing mechanism said in an anonymous report to a safety reporting system run by NASA. “I felt that my recollection was strong enough, but in reality I should have taken some time to review” the standard operating procedures.

---- “The key to flying safely is frequency,” said Richard G. McSpadden Jr., senior vice president at the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Assn.'s Air Safety Institute. “You are not as sharp if you haven’t flown for a while.”

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines have dramatically reduced the number of daily flights on some routes and, in some cases, eliminated service to low-demand destinations.

In April and May, the number of daily takeoffs in the U.S. dropped to about 75% below pre-pandemic levels. In recent months, the number of takeoffs has risen to 43% below pre-pandemic times, according to industry data.

As a result, some pilots have been brought back to work after being away for up to four months. Delta Air Lines announced this week that it planned to bring back about 400 pilots by summer in hopes that the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will boost demand for travel.

---- To ensure pilots in the U.S. maintain proficiency even when they are not scheduled to work for long stretches of time, the Federal Aviation Administration bars pilots from flying a commercial jet unless they have performed at least three takeoffs and three landings — either on a plane or in a simulator — in the previous 90 days.

But the FAA amended that requirement twice last year, giving pilots more leeway.

In federal documents, the FAA defended the grace periods, saying that putting pilots into cockpits or simulators to practice flying increases the risk of spreading COVID-19. The FAA noted that the grace periods were requested by several aviation industry groups, including Airlines for America, the trade organization for the nation’s largest airlines, and the Regional Airline Assn., a trade group for regional carriers in the U.S.

More

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-01-29/airline-pilots-flight-errors-pandemic

But it’s not all bad news in the air. Below, the United flight crew and Denver ground control got it 100 percent right last month. Well done to all involved. Approx. 15 minutes.

UNITED 328 Engine Failure! WHAT CHECKLISTS did the pilots use? Explained by CAPTAIN JOE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5Wler87pwY&t=883s

This weekend’s musical diversion.   Germany’s long forgotten Johann Friedrich Fasch again. (1688 - 1758) Approx. 12 minutes.

Fasch - Concerto for 3 Trumpets in D major, FWV L: D3 | Il Gardellino

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWundntPugY

This week’s chess lesson, from earlier this week. Approx. 12 minutes.

Alekhine Just Turned in His Grave...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzjUJOBgJ1I

Finally, something a little different. Go ahead, prove out the Collatz conjecture, it’s quite beyond me.

Mathematician Proves Huge Result on ‘Dangerous’ Problem

Mathematicians regard the Collatz conjecture as a quagmire and warn each other to stay away. But Terence Tao has made more progress than anyone in decades.

Take a number, any number. If it’s even, halve it. If it’s odd, multiply by 3 and add 1. Repeat. Do all starting numbers lead to 1? Credit: Lovasoa / Wikimedia Commons / Public Domain.

Experienced mathematicians warn up-and-comers to stay away from the Collatz conjecture. It’s a siren song, they say: Fall under its trance and you may never do meaningful work again.

The Collatz conjecture is quite possibly the simplest unsolved problem in mathematics — which is exactly what makes it so treacherously alluring.

“This is a really dangerous problem. People become obsessed with it and it really is impossible,” said Jeffrey Lagarias, a mathematician at the University of Michigan and an expert on the Collatz conjecture.

In 2019, one of the top mathematicians in the world dared to confront the problem — and came away with one of the most significant results on the Collatz conjecture in decades.

On September 8, 2019, Terence Tao posted a proof showing that — at the very least — the Collatz conjecture is “almost” true for “almost” all numbers. While Tao’s result is not a full proof of the conjecture, it is a major advance on a problem that doesn’t give up its secrets easily.

“I wasn’t expecting to solve this problem completely,” said Tao, a mathematician at the University of California, Los Angeles. “But what I did was more than I expected.”

The Collatz Conundrum

Lothar Collatz likely posed the eponymous conjecture in the 1930s. The problem sounds like a party trick. Pick a number, any number. If it’s odd, multiply it by 3 and add 1. If it’s even, divide it by 2. Now you have a new number. Apply the same rules to the new number. The conjecture is about what happens as you keep repeating the process.

Intuition might suggest that the number you start with affects the number you end up with. Maybe some numbers eventually spiral all the way down to 1. Maybe others go marching off to infinity.

But Collatz predicted that’s not the case. He conjectured that if you start with a positive whole number and run this process long enough, all starting values will lead to 1. And once you hit 1, the rules of the Collatz conjecture confine you to a loop: 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, on and on forever.

Over the years, many problem solvers have been drawn to the beguiling simplicity of the Collatz conjecture, or the “3x + 1 problem,” as it’s also known. Mathematicians have tested quintillions of examples (that’s 18 zeros) without finding a single exception to Collatz’s prediction. You can even try a few examples yourself with any of the many “Collatz calculators” online. The internet is awash in unfounded amateur proofs that claim to have resolved the problem one way or the other.

More

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/mathematician-proves-huge-result-on-dangerous-problem?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.

Vladimir Lenin