Saturday 31 December 2022

Special Update 31/12/2022 2023 Up Or Down? mRNA

 Baltic Dry Index. 1515          Brent Crude 85.91

Spot Gold 1824       U S 2 Year Yield 4.41 +0.07

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 31/12/22 World 664,580,954

Deaths 6,696,247

An optimist stays up until midnight to see the new year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.

Good riddance to 2022, bring on 2023. With mainstream media happily covering 2022s few high points and numerous low points, I wont be adding to flogging a dead horse.

Sufficient to say, 2023 looks challenging, at least through mid-year. After that, depending on hopefully by then abating food price inflation, we should have reached the end of global central  bank interest rate hikes. Not that hiking interest rates has any relevance to ending food price inflation.

As to energy price inflation, that depends on what happens to global demand as China’s economy picks up in February after the Lunar New Year, plus what happens to demand as the US, UK and EU economies fall into recession v what happens to Russian oil production after Russia’s new retaliatory sanctions start on February 1st.

All in all, a difficult start to H1 2023 looks all too likely.

Finally, a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous 2023 to one and all.

After 2022, hopefully our inflationist central banksters and bent politicians have finally learnt the lessons of inflationary money printing.

Stocks fall to end Wall Street’s worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20%

UPDATED FRI, DEC 30 2022 5:23 PM EST

Stocks slipped on Friday to end a brutal 2022 with a whimper, as Wall Street wrapped up its worst year since 2008 on a sour note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 73.55 points, or 0.22%, to close at 33,147.25. The S&P 500 shed 0.25% to end at 3,839.50. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.11% to 10,466.88.

Friday marked the final day of trading in what has been a painful year for stocks. All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three-year win streak. The Dow fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, and is more than 20% below its record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1%.

Sticky inflation and aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve battered growth and technology stocks and weighed on investor sentiment throughout the year. Geopolitical concerns and volatile economic data also kept markets on edge.

---- As the calendar turns to a new year, some investors think the pain is far from over. They expect the bear market to persist until a recession hits or the Fed pivots. Some also project stocks will hit new lows before rebounding in the second half of 2023.

---- Despite the yearly losses, the Dow and S&P 500 did break three-quarter losing streaks in the final three months of the year. The Nasdaq, however, dominated by the likes of Apple, Tesla and Microsoft, muddled through its fourth consecutive negative quarter for the first time since 2001. All three averages are negative for December, however.

Stocks fall to end Wall Street's worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20% (cnbc.com)

European stocks log worst year since 2018 as rate hikes, Ukraine war rattle markets

LONDON — European markets wrapped up their worst year since 2018 as Russia’s war in Ukraine, high inflation and tightening monetary policy hammered risk assets around the world.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the last trading day of 2022 down 1.3% — but it was lower by 12.76% since the turn of the year — its worst performance since a 13.24% annual decline in 2018. The European blue-chip index enjoyed a bumper 2021, jumping 22.25% on the year.

On Friday, the French CAC 40 closed down 1.5% and the German DAX was lower by 1.1% — with the two bourses logging annual losses of 9.5% and 12.5%, respectively.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100, which was open for a half day Friday, closed lower by 0.8% and clocked a yearly gain of 1.2%. The more domestic-focused FTSE 250 lost 19.5% in 2022, its biggest annual loss since 2008.

Economies around the world began the year still trying to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, with persistent lockdowns in China and other lingering supply bottlenecks forming what was now infamously mischaracterized by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2021 as “transitory” inflationary pressure.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February, and subsequent weaponization of its food and energy exports in the face of sweeping sanctions by Western powers, sent food and energy prices skyrocketing and compounded this pressure, helping to send inflation to multi-decade highs across many major economies.

The cost-of-living crisis arising from soaring energy bills for businesses and consumers eventually began to weigh on activity, while the Fed and other major central banks were forced to tighten monetary policy with aggressive hikes to interest rates in order to rein in inflation.

More

European stocks log worst year since 2018 as rate hikes, Ukraine war rattle markets (cnbc.com)

After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023

Fri, December 30, 2022 at 5:00 AM GMT

(Bloomberg) -- More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong. Reeling from a record $18 trillion wipeout, global stocks must surmount all these hurdles and more if they are to escape a second straight year in the red.

With a drop of more than 20% in 2022, the MSCI All-Country World Index is on track for its worst performance since the 2008 crisis, as jumbo interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve more than doubled 10-year Treasury yields — the rate underpinning global capital costs.

Bulls looking ahead at 2023 might take solace in the fact that two consecutive down years are rare for major equity markets — the S&P 500 index has fallen for two straight years on just four occasions since 1928. The scary thing though, is that when they do occur, drops in the second year tend to be deeper than in the first.

Here are some factors that could determine how 2023 shapes up for global equity markets:

More

After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023 (yahoo.com)

In better crypto fraud news, FTX Japan says it will start returning customer assets in February. But scroll down to this edition’s last YouTube section.

FTX Japan to return assets to clients from February

TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Japanese unit of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX said on Friday it would return its customer assets from February.

FTX Japan is developing a system with which customers can withdraw assets via the website of Liquid Japan, a crypto exchange it bought in February this year.

"We deeply apologise for the big trouble caused by the prolonged suspension of services for the withdrawal of legal currency as well as crypto assets," FTX Japan said in a statement.

FTX filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection in November and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned as chief executive, after the biggest blowup in the crypto industry drew calls for tighter regulation.

FTX Japan to return assets to clients from February | Reuters

Why did the man stand on one leg at midnight on New Year’s? He wanted to start the year on the right foot.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.     

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

China December manufacturing contracts at sharpest pace in almost 3 years

China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.

The drop was the biggest since the early days of the pandemic in February 2020.

The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world’s strictest Covid restrictions in early December. Cumulative infections likely reached 18.6 million in December, UK-based health data firm Airfinity estimated.

Analysts said surging infections could cause temporary labour shortages and increased supply chain disruptions. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Tesla plans to run a reduced production schedule at its Shanghai plant in January, extending the reduced output it began this month into next year.

Weakening external demand on the back of growing global recession fears amid rising interest rates, inflation and the war in Ukraine may further slow China’s exports, hurting its massive manufacturing sector and hampering an economic recovery.

More

China manufacturing contracts sharply as Covid infections soar (cnbc.com)

2023 set to be 'year of recession', expert says

The cost of living crisis wrought havoc in 2022, but 2023 is not expected to be much better

UPDATED 09:14, 30 DEC 2022

The nation headed into 2022 with optimism for the economy, but hopes of a bumper year of growth unrestrained by Covid restrictions were dashed as the cost-of-living crisis took centre stage. But if we were hoping 2023 would be better, unfortunately experts are predicting it will be the "year of recession".

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said GDP is likely to fall by 1.5% year-on-year in 2023, with no sign of a recovery until early 2024. With rates ending 2022 at 3.5% – a 14-year high – this will further hold back consumer spending, hitting some four million mortgage borrowers who are due to refinance next year, according to the Bank of England.

But the expected recession will also help rein in inflation, which will allow the Bank to take its foot off the pedal. Mr Tombs said: “We expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate to 4% in February, but then to stand pat in March.

“Eventually, the MPC [Monetary Policy Committee] will cut Bank Rate again… but we think the Monetary Policy Committee will wait until early 2024 to begin to reduce Bank Rate, and only then by 50 basis points to 3.5% by the end of the year.”

Martin Beck at the EY Item Club is slightly more optimistic, as he believes households still have some savings built up during Covid that they can dip into. “Consumer spending is therefore unlikely to fall to the same extent as real incomes. And falling inflation over the course of next year offers hope of a return to growth later in 2023,” he said.

2022 has been a rough year for many, with the majority of households badly affected by the cost of living crisis. Just as the worst of the pandemic seemed to be behind us as we headed into 2022, the emergence of soaring inflation soon became the next big threat to the economy and one which is set to send the UK plunging back into recession.

While Bank of England policymakers had forecast inflation to jump higher as supply chains struggled to keep up with surging demand, they were not prepared for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and the economic onslaught that followed as a result. As the UK joined its international neighbours in shunning Russian gas and oil, energy prices were quickly sent rocketing higher, pushing inflation to levels not seen for more than 40 years.

Having started the year at 5.5%, Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation had jumped to 7% by March already before hitting double digits in July. Its ascent did not stop there. Amid forecasts that annual household energy bills could hit nearly £3,500 this year, experts predicted that inflation could reach 13.3% by October.

More

2023 set to be 'year of recession', expert says - Business Live (business-live.co.uk)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Why is this mRNA scandal happening?

Reanalysis of mRNA trial data

Reanalysis of mRNA trial data - YouTube


Long COVID: 4 Contributors and the Possible Root Cause

Dec 29 2022

It has been more than two years since long COVID manifested, and scientists are still far from settled on its cause.

However, based on common clinical manifestations and emerging research, clinicians have identified several contributors to long COVID symptoms.

 

Spike Protein Appears to Be the Leading Contributor

Spike protein can exist in the immune cells of long COVID patients for up to 15 months after infection.

 

The spike protein sits on the surface of the COVID-19 virus and is the key to breaking into cells and causing the virus to spread in organs and tissue.

 

An increasing number of studies are pointing to it (1, 2) as a contributing factor to long COVID.

Studies in mice and human cell cultures revealed that the spike protein could travel into the brain by bypassing the blood-brain barrier.

Autopsy reports on people who died from COVID-19 have found spike protein in the brain, heart, pancreas, liver, kidney, thyroid, reproductive organs, adrenal glands, lungs, nasal and oral cavities, blood, fat, bone, muscle, skin, and even the eyes.

However, the symptoms and laboratory test results vary depending on the patient. Clinicians have therefore developed various hypotheses on the reasons behind these symptoms.

More

Long COVID: 4 Contributors and the Possible Root Cause (theepochtimes.com)

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

High-efficiency water filter removes 99.9% of microplastics in 10 seconds

Michael Irving  December 29, 2022

Microplastics are a growing environmental problem, but now researchers in Korea have developed a new water purification system that can filter out these tiny fragments, as well as other pollutants, very quickly and with high efficiency.

Given the ubiquity of plastic in the modern world, it’s not surprising that tiny flakes of the stuff can be found basically everywhere on Earth, even in environments thought to be pristine. Microplastics have been detected from pole to pole, from the deepest ocean trenches to the tallest mountain peaks, and are making their way up the food chain all the way to humans.

Various materials are being tested to help filter out microplastics, including magnetic "nanopillars," nanocellulosesemiconductor wires, and filtration columns containing sand, gravel and biofilms. Now, researchers at Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST) in South Korea have found promise with a new design.

The key is a material known as a covalent triazene framework (CTF). This is a highly porous material with a large surface area, meaning they have plenty of room inside to store molecules they capture. Similar materials have recently been demonstrated to be effective at removing organic dyes from industrial wastewater.

The team carefully designed the molecules in the CTF to be more water-attracting, and exposed the material to mild oxidation. The resulting filter was shown to be effective at very quickly removing microplastics from water – reportedly over 99.9% of the pollutants were removed within 10 seconds. The material can also be reused multiple times without reducing its performance.

More

High-efficiency water filter removes 99.9% of microplastics in 10 seconds (newatlas.com)

This weekend’s music diversion.. Approx. 9 minutes.

G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in F major Op. 4/5 HWV 293, La Divina Armonia

G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in F major Op. 4/5 HWV 293, La Divina Armonia - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 8  minutes.

Magnus Carlsen is World Rapid Champion!

Magnus Carlsen is World Rapid Champion! - YouTube

This weekend’s update on Crypto. What next in 2023?  Approx. 24 minutes.

FTX Losses & Contagion are Destroying Crypto Market as Investment Funds & Crypto Businesses Collapse

FTX Losses & Contagion are Destroying Crypto Market as Investment Funds & Crypto Businesses Collapse - YouTube

What happened to the man who shoplifted a calendar on New Year’s Eve? He got 12 months!

Friday 30 December 2022

A Reverse Wealth Affect In 2023.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1515              Brent Crude 83.90

Spot Gold 1819            US 2 Year Yield 4.34 +0.03

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 30/12/22 World 664,005,108

Deaths 6,693,938

But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

Fed Chairman Bernanke, 2002. Inflationist.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

It is the last trading day of the best forgotten year. Time for one last push in the stock casinos to dress up the ending of a bad year for most stocks?

Well probably, but it won’t do much to reverse the 2022 declining wealth effect.

From rising crypto fraud to the declining wealth effect of the bursting of the Great Everything Bubble, 2023 looks to be very challenging at least through mid-year.

Asia-Pacific markets rise in final trading session of 2022

UPDATED THU, DEC 29 2022 11:50 PM EST

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific traded higher on its last trading session of the year after Wall Street rebounded overnight, recovering most losses from the previous day.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.82% carrying on the sentiment from the U.S. session. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite gained 0.61% and the Shenzhen Component added 0.35%.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.65%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 and the Topix both inched up 0.4% while the Japanese yen saw some strengthening to last stand at 132.42 against the U.S. dollar.

Seoul’s stock markets are closed for New Year’s holiday and scheduled to resume trade on Jan. 2 an hour later than usual at 10 a.m. local time.

Overnight in the U.S., jobless filings rose last week, according to the Labor department, a higher reading than Dow Jones estimates. Wall Street’s major averages are still headed toward their worst year since 2008 as investors head into the final trading days of 2022.

Asia markets: South Korea inflation, China reopening (cnbc.com)

Stock futures inch lower as Wall Street awaits final trading day of 2022

UPDATED THU, DEC 29 2022 11:04 PM EST

Stock futures inched lower in overnight trading Thursday as investors braced for the final trading day of the worst year for stocks since 2008.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 41 points, or 0.12%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded 0.14% and 0.08% lower, respectively.

The overnight moves followed a rally during the regular trading session, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 climbing about 2.6% and roughly 1.8%, respectively. The Dow jumped 345 points, or 1.05%.

For the week, the Dow and S&P are slightly higher, with the Nasdaq on track for a modest loss. All major averages are lower for December and are poised to snap a two-month win streak.

Friday marks the final day of trading of what’s been a painful year for stocks. A volatile bear market, sticky inflation, and aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve battered growth and technology stocks. These factors also weighed on investor sentiment.

All three of the major averages are marching toward their worst year since 2008, slated to snap a three-year win streak. The Dow fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down 8.58%, while the S&P and tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 19.24% and 33.03%, respectively.

Despite the yearly losses, the Dow is on pace for a 15.65% quarterly gain and is primed to snap a three-quarter losing streak. It’s also headed for its best quarter since the second quarter of 2020. The S&P is up 7.35% and slated to break three consecutive quarterly losses. The Nasdaq’s slipped 0.92%, for its fourth consecutive negative quarter for the first time since 2001.

More

Stock futures inch lower as Wall Street awaits final trading day of 2022 (cnbc.com)

Amazon lost half its value this year as tech stocks got crushed and recession fears grew

It was a brutal year for mega-cap tech stocks across the board. But 2022 was especially rough for Amazon.

Shares of the e-retailer are wrapping up their worst year since the dot-com crash. The stock has tumbled 51% in 2022, marking the biggest decline since 2000, when it plunged 80%. Only Tesla, down 68%, and Meta, off 66%, have had a worse year among the most valuable tech companies.

Amazon’s market cap has shrunk to about $834 billion from $1.7 trillion to start the year. The company fell out of the trillion-dollar club last month.

Much of Amazon’s misfortunes are tied to the economy and macro environment. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates have pushed investors away from growth and into companies with high profit margins, consistent cash flow and high dividend yields.

But Amazon investors have had other reasons to exit the stock. The company is contending with slowing sales, as predictions of a sustained post-Covid e-commerce boom didn’t pan out. At the height of the pandemic, consumers came to depend on online retailers like Amazon for goods ranging from toilet paper and face masks to patio furniture. That drove Amazon’s stock to record highs as sales soared.

As the economy reopened, consumers gradually returned to shopping in stores and spending on things like travel and restaurants, which caused Amazon’s impressive revenue growth to fade. The situation only worsened at the start of this year, as the company confronted higher costs tied to inflation, the war in Ukraine and supply chain constraints.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who succeeded founder Jeff Bezos at the helm in July 2021, admitted that the company hired too many workers and overbuilt its warehouse network as it raced to keep up with pandemic-era demand. It’s since paused or abandoned plans to open some new facilities, and its head count shrank in the second quarter.

More

Amazon shed half its value in 2022 as tech stocks got crushed (cnbc.com)

The “Mega-Bubbles” Have Started To Burst, And That Could Mean Unprecedented Financial Chaos Is Ahead

2

The Federal Reserve giveth, and the Federal Reserve taketh away.  In a desperate attempt to help the U.S. economy recover from the horrific economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates all the way to the floor and kept them at or near the floor until 2022.  During that same time period, the Fed also created trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumped it into the financial system.  All of this new money had to go somewhere, and it created colossal financial bubbles that were unlike anything we had ever seen before.  There were a few voices that were warning that all of this foolishness would end very badly, but those voices were mostly drowned out by those that were super happy that asset values were absolutely exploding.  The Fed had essentially created the ultimate “get rich quick scheme”, and countless Americans were more than happy to take advantage of it.

But in 2022 inflation started to become exceedingly painful, and the Federal Reserve went into panic mode.  The flow of free money stopped, and the Federal Reserve began to aggressively hike interest rates.

Everyone knew that this sudden change of course by the Fed would crash the housing market, and that is precisely what is happening.  In fact, even the Wall Street Journal is now admitting that we are facing “a housing slump as severe, by some metrics, as that of 2007-09”

Home sales have been falling month after month, and it is being projected that they could soon fall below the levels that we witnessed during the last housing crash…

Sales of existing homes fell in November for a record 10th straight month. Economists at Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs forecast they will drop below 4 million in 2023, lower than during the 2006-11 housing bust.

On Wednesday, we got some more bad news.

Pending home sales are one of the best leading indicators for where the housing market is going next, and at this point pending home sales have dropped to the lowest level ever recorded

More

The "Mega-Bubbles" Have Started To Burst, And That Could Mean Unprecedented Financial Chaos Is Ahead (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)

Finally, in crypto fraud news, a little hope for some recovery of some customer assets by the Bahamas regulator. But what these assets are really worth we’ll only know when it becomes time to sell them.

Bahamas regulator holds FTX assets pending delivery to customers, creditors

Dec 29 (Reuters) - The Securities Commission of the Bahamas said on Thursday that it is holding FTX assets worth $3.5 billion based on market pricing at the time of transfer on a temporary basis to deliver them to customers and creditors who own them.

FTX's Bahamas unit's digital assets were transferred to digital wallets under the exclusive control of the commission in November soon after the company and its hedge fund Alameda Research and dozens of affiliates filed for U.S. bankruptcy.

Upon completion of the transfer, FTX founders Sam Bankman-Fried and Gary Wang no longer had access to the tokens that were transferred or frozen, the executive director of the commission, Christina Rolle, said in an affidavit filed with the Bahamas Supreme Court.

"All transferred assets were and remain under the sole control of the commission," Rolle said.

Lawyers for crypto exchange FTX earlier this month opposed a demand for internal records from its Bahamian business, saying they "do not trust" the Bahamian government with data that could be used to siphon off assets from the bankrupt company.

more

Bahamas regulator holds FTX assets pending delivery to customers, creditors | Reuters

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

South Korean chip production slumps as inflation hits electronics demand

Samsung set to increase capital spending to grab market share in downturn, say analysts

29 December 2022


South Korea’s chip production fell last month by the most since the global financial crisis, reflecting the deepening industry downtown as chipmakers struggle to clear large inventories and inflation saps demand for electronics.

The country’s chip output decreased for a fourth consecutive month in November, sliding 15 per cent from a year earlier for its biggest drop since 2009, according to Statistics Korea. Output was down 11 per cent month on month as semiconductor inventories surged more than 20 per cent from a year earlier.

The sharp increase in inventories highlights a supply glut of memory chips as global demand for technology products is hit by high inflation after a two-year boom during the coronavirus pandemic. South Korea, home to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is a leading producer of microchips.

“Demand has been hit by the slowing global economy and large inventories. Customers are not buying chips as demand has collapsed,” said JJ Park, an analyst at JPMorgan in Seoul.


“Inventory destocking will be completed throughout next year and the market could rebound in 2024.”

Chipmakers are cutting their investment plans to adjust to the oversupply. SK Hynix, along with US rival Micron Technologies and Japan’s Kioxia Holdings, are slashing spending, though Samsung is not considering an output cut.

Samsung expects the memory chip market to remain sluggish until the end of 2023. The industry leader was sticking to its past strategy of increasing capital spending during the downturn to grab market share, analysts said.

“Samsung is back-stabbing its fellow oligopoly competitors,” Dylan Patel, chief analyst at semiconductor research group SemiAnalysis, wrote in a report earlier this month. “Samsung is looking for a Pyrrhic market share victory.”

Samsung said during its third-quarter earnings call in October that its capital spending this year would reach Won47.7tn ($37.5bn). The guidance calls for a jump in fourth-quarter spending, almost double that of the second and third quarter, according to Patel.

In July, Samsung began production at its new domestic chip factory in Pyeongtaek, one of the world’s largest semiconductor production facilities. Its increased capital spending and chip production will exacerbate the global oversupply, analysts have warned.

“The oligopoly is broken, as Samsung’s new chair wants to eat market share,” Patel noted, warning of “pure carnage” in the Dram (dynamic random-access memory) market.

More

South Korean chip production slumps as inflation hits electronics demand | Financial Times (ft.com)

Crumbling tech stocks and recession fears have cratered the fortunes of the wealthiest Americans including Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.

December 29, 2022.

As we near the end of 2022, today let's take a moment to count up just how much money some of the wealthiest folks on the planet have lost this year.

1.      As an individual accumulates more wealth, they have more to lose. And between this year's historic inflation, sky-high interest rates, and global economic turmoil, those with the deepest coffers have seen the deepest losses. 

Let's start with Elon Musk. His wealth this year has shrunk by $140 billion, bringing his net worth to roughly $130 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Then there's Jeff Bezos — the Amazon founder's wealth has gotten $86 billion lighter. 

And Microsoft founder Bill Gates saw his fortune tumble by $29 billion, while former CEO Steve Balmer took a $21 billion hit, as Insider's Theron Mohamed points out.

Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the cofounders of Google's parent company Alphabet, together lost roughly $91 billion in 2022. 

Perhaps both most notably and most under the radar is how Warren Buffet, the most veteran investor of the bunch, lost a comparatively meager $3 billion.

And of course, FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried saw his net worth evaporate virtually overnight last month, dropping from $16 billion to a buck

Besides the fallen crypto king, many of these shrinking fortunes can be chalked up to this year's bloodbath in the tech stocks. Amazon has halved in value, Alphabet's down 40%, and Microsoft has tumbled 29%. 

(By the way, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway remains in the green for the year).

But special consideration should go to Tesla. It remains far and away the dominant player in the burgeoning electric vehicle market, yet its stock has fallen about 68%. 

More

Crumbling tech stocks and recession fears have cratered the fortunes of the wealthiest Americans including Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. (msn.com)

Should the LIR start “ poor billionaire relief fund?”  If yes, should SBF be put in charge of it? Binance?

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Risk of a dangerous new Covid variant in China is ‘quite low,’ U.S. health expert says

BEIJING — It’s unlikely that a dangerous new Covid-19 variant is spreading in China, said Dr. Chris Murray, Seattle-based director of a health research center at the University of Washington.

His comments Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” come as U.S. health officials warned this week about the chance of a new Covid variant emerging in China’s nationwide outbreak — and how Beijing’s lack of transparency could delay detection of public health risks.

Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, pointed out there were likely billions of omicron infections worldwide this year, but no new Covid variant has emerged, only subvariants of omicron.

“That’s why I would put the risk as quite low that there is a dangerous new variant in China,” he said. He noted that “some very special characteristics” would be needed for a new variant to emerge and replace omicron.

The variant was first detected in South Africa more than a year ago. Omicron is far more transmissible, but causes less severe disease, than when Covid first emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019.

Unlike much of the world, China’s Covid wave this month is affecting a population of 1.4 billion people who are mostly getting infected for the first time. Only domestically made vaccines are widely available to locals.

Beijing this month suddenly relaxed many Covid-related restrictions on movement. On Monday, authorities also said they would scrap inbound quarantine starting Jan. 8, while resuming passport processing for Chinese citizens wanting to travel abroad for tourism.

More

Risk of a dangerous new Covid variant in China is 'quite low,' U.S. health expert says (cnbc.com)

First "virovore" discovered: An organism that eats viruses

Michael Irving  December 28, 2022

Name a type of organic matter and chances are some type of organism has evolved to eat it. Plants, meat, algae, insects and bacteria are all consumed by different creatures, but now scientists have discovered something new on the menu – viruses.

Since viruses are found absolutely everywhere, it’s inevitable that organisms will consume them incidentally. But researcher John DeLong at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln wanted to find out if any microbes actively ate viruses, and whether such a diet could support the physiological growth of individuals and the population growth of a community.

“They’re made up of really good stuff: nucleic acids, a lot of nitrogen and phosphorous,” said DeLong. “Everything should want to eat them. So many things will eat anything they can get ahold of. Surely something would have learned how to eat these really good raw materials.”

To test the hypothesis, DeLong and his team collected samples of pond water, isolated different microbes, and then added large amounts of chlorovirus, a freshwater inhabitant that infects green algae. Over the next few days the team tracked the population size of the viruses and the other microbes to see if the latter was eating the former.

And sure enough, one particular microbe seemed to be snacking on the viruses – a ciliate known as Halteria. In water samples with no other food source for the ciliates, Halteria populations grew by about 15 times within two days, while chlorovirus levels dropped 100-fold. In control samples without the virus, Halteria didn’t grow at all.

In follow-up tests, the team tagged chlorovirus DNA with fluorescent dye, and found that Halteria cells soon began to glow. This helped confirm that Halteria was indeed consuming the virus.

These experiments show that the newly coined term “virovory” can now take its place among herbivory, carnivory et al, with Halteria crowned the first known virovore. But of course, it’s unlikely to be the only one out there, and the researchers plan to continue investigating the phenomenon, including its effects on food webs and larger systems like the carbon cycle.

The research was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln via Eurekalert

First "virovore" discovered: An organism that eats viruses (newatlas.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, so you really, really want to drive an EV.

Queues stretching for hours show what it's really like owning a Tesla at Christmas

December 28, 2022

Tesla owners were having a truly British Christmas this year by queuing for hours to charge their electric cars.

Several snaking queues have been spotted up and down the UK over the last few days.

Nearly two dozen cars were logjammed at a charging point in a Waitrose parking lot in the Hertfordshire village of South Mims on Christmas Day.

One TikTok user said the Tesla owners were waiting around one hour to charge their cars at the station.

They said: ‘Here they all are queueing up, waiting for an hour or whatever it is for their charging. They’re everywhere.’

A Facebook user filmed countless Tesla vehicles clogging the Tebay Southbound supercharger in Cumbria by the M6 Junction yesterday.

‘All our electric Tesla friends queueing up to charge up at Tebay Services on the post Xmas trip south,’ they said, adding that it was a ‘struggle to park as very busy’.

Members of a Tesla driver’s Facebook group reported waiting nearly three hours to charge their cars in Tebay.

---- In Westmorland, north-west England, an electric vehicle driver said the scene at a motorway charging station was ‘bedlam’ yesterday.

‘Two-hour 30-minute wait for a charge,’ he said. ‘Worst journey as (a) Tesla driver. Q now 40 deep!’

A Manchester-based user shared a photo of a dizzying queue of Teslas yesterday.

‘UK services this week have been insanely busy for Tesla charging,’ they said.

‘Currently car 15 in a queue of over 20 … but you can always rely on the British public to make an orderly queue.’

Queues stretching for hours show what it's really like owning a Tesla at Christmas (msn.com)

NYC Electric Garbage Truck Plans Hit Wall After Trucks "Conked Out" Plowing Snow After Just Four Hours

THURSDAY, DEC 29, 2022 - 02:05 AM

In a move that absolutely nobody could have seen coming, New York City is scrapping its brilliant idea for electric garbage trucks after finding out the truck simply "aren't powerful enough to plow snow".

The pipe dream of converting the city's 6,000 garbage trucks from gas to electric in order to try and limit carbon emissions (because there's no other problems that need to be dealt with in New York City right now) is "clashing with the limits of electric-powered vehicles," Gothamist wrote this week.

The city's current trucks run on diesel and can be fitted with plows in the winter. 

Despite the shortcomings, the city Department of Sanitation' has already ordered seven electric rear loader garbage trucks, custom-made by Mack, the report says. Those trucks cost an astonishing $523,000 each and are to be delivered this spring. 

More

NYC Electric Garbage Truck Plans Hit Wall After Trucks "Conked Out" Plowing Snow After Just Four Hours | ZeroHedge

Another weekend and another year too.  But what will 2023 bring to the global economy? A wider European war?  Continued food and energy inflation? Continued money printing fuelling more inflation leading to more strikes and social unrest?

My guess is on stagflation as money fuelled inflation continues even as the new global recession deepens. Have a Great, Safe, Happy New Year weekend everyone.

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”

Will Rogers.