Baltic Dry Index. 1357 -04 Brent Crude 80.28
Spot Gold 1811 US 2 Year Yield 4.22 -0.17
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 14/12/22 World 654,855,973
Deaths 6,661,947
Why did I take up stealing? To
live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that
you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
Ebenezer Crypto, with apologies
to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
It is day two of the US central
bank meeting and the day they get to announce their latest interest rate hike.
Anything more than 50 basis points will shock the US stock casinos, anything
less will signal the inflation fight is over.
After the release, Fed Chairman
Powell gets to share with us how the inept Fedsters see next year’s US economy
shaping up. That dream may or may not
affect how the BOE, ECB and Swiss National Bank set their interest rates
tomorrow.
European stocks
head for mixed open as markets react to inflation data; Fed outcome ahead
UPDATED WED, DEC 14 2022 12:11 AM EST
European stocks are heading for a mixed open on
Wednesday as global markets react to the latest U.S. inflation reading, and
look ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later today.
Global markets rallied Tuesday
after the latest U.S. inflation showed that consumer
prices rose less than expected in November, signalling that
inflationary pressures could be starting to ease.
The consumer price index, which
measures a wide basket of goods and services, rose just 0.1% from the previous
month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, data from the Labor Department showed.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a
7.3% 12-month rate.
The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes
its last meeting of 2022 on Wednesday and economists widely expect the central
bank to raise rates by half a percentage point..
Thursday will also see monetary
policy decisions from the Bank
of England, European Central Bank and
the Swiss National Bank.
European
markets live updates: Reaction to U.S. inflation, Fed outcome (cnbc.com)
Asia-Pacific
markets rise on cooler inflation print, ahead of Fed rate decision
UPDATED WED, DEC 14 2022 12:56 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher on Wednesday,
after stocks on Wall Street saw a second day of gains on an inflation
print that came in cooler than expected.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong rose 1.08%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component rose
0.34% and the Shanghai
Composite was up 0.18% as traders watched for updates on a key
economic policy meeting that has reportedly been delayed on a surge of
Covid infections.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained
0.79% while the Topix was 0.55% higher. South Korea’s Kospi also
rose 1.04%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
0.67% higher.
The U.S. dollar index last
stood at 104.06 and the Japanese yen slightly
strengthened to 135.38 against the greenback.
Morgan Stanley raises
China 2023 GDP growth on reopening
Morgan Stanley
raised its 2023 outlook for China’s economy in a note released Wednesday
morning in Asia.
“We lift our
already above-consensus GDP growth forecast to 5.4%,” strategists and
economists including its chief Asia economist Chetan Ahya said in the report.
The firm had previously set its growth forecast for next year at 5%.
“Investor
positioning in China’s assets is still low and this recovery is not fully
priced in equity and FX markets,” the note said, adding the revision reflects a
rebound in activity predicted to come earlier than expected.
“We had previously
expected a rebound in activity to materialize from late 2Q23. Now we are
projecting mobility to improve from early March,” it said.
The report said
further easing of restrictions will likely lead to a significant rise in Covid
cases, though the firm says the impact of the surge will be short-lived.
Asia-Pacific
markets rise on cooler inflation print, ahead of Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)
Finally, back in the unreal world,
more on that Great Growing Crypto Fraud Scandal. Embezzlement, who’d have thought it?
FTX committed
‘old fashioned embezzlement,’ CEO tells lawmakers in blistering hearing
UPDATED TUE, DEC 13 2022 5:43 PM EST
The House Financial
Services Committee held a hearing Tuesday on the collapse of cryptocurrency
exchange FTX following the Monday night arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried in
the Bahamas as U.S. regulators released a slew of civil and criminal charges
against the one-time billionaire.
The Justice
Department and Bahamian authorities said Bankman-Fried, who was previously
scheduled to testify before the panel, was arrested based on an indictment in
the U.S. that was unsealed shortly after the hearing started.
John J. Ray, the company’s new CEO and the
panel’s sole witness, told lawmakers the company had “no record-keeping
whatsoever,” using bookkeeping software QuickBooks to track its multibillion
dollar portfolio.
“This is really just old
fashioned embezzlement. This is just taking money from customers and using it
for your own purpose. Not sophisticated at all,” Ray said in blistering
testimony that lasted more than four hours. “Sophisticated, perhaps in the way
they are hiding something, frankly, right in front of their eyes. This is just
plain old embezzlement. Old school, old school.”
The company imploded and filed
for Chapter
11 bankruptcy last month after reportedly transferring billions
of dollars in FTX customer funds to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda
Research.
The Securities and Exchange
Commission also charged the former crypto “darling” Tuesday
morning with allegedly “orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors in
FTX Trading,” according to the agency.
The Senate Banking Committee had
also asked Bankman-Fried to testify at a Wednesday hearing that he previously
refused to attend.
More
FTX
committed 'old fashioned embezzlement,' CEO tells lawmakers in blistering
hearing (cnbc.com)
Binance
halts withdrawals of major USDC stablecoin
December 13, 2022
9:40 AM GMT
LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Binance, the
world's biggest crypto exchange, said on Tuesday it had "temporarily
paused" withdrawals of the major stablecoin USDC.
"On USDC, we have seen an increase
in withdrawals," Binance's chief executive Changpeng Zhao tweeted at
around 0820 GMT.
Swapping USDC Coin with two other crypto
tokens - Paxos Standard and Binance USD - requires using traditional dollars at
a bank in New York, Zhao added. "The banks are not open for another few
hours. We expect the situation will be restored when the banks open."
The swaps are "1:1 conversions, no
margin or leverage involved. We will also try to establish more fluid swap
channels in the future," he added.
Binance said in a separate tweet the
halt was due to "token swap" - where digital token holders exchange
their crypto coins, typically over different blockchains.
Binance said in September it would
automatically convert user balances and new deposits of USD Coin and other
stablecoins Pax Dollar and True USD into its own stablecoin, Binance USD.
Binance did not immediately
respond to a request for comment.
Reporting by Tom Wilson and Elizabeth Howcroft
Binance halts
withdrawals of major USDC stablecoin | Reuters
Coinbase
debtholders sweat as bonds trade near 50 cents on the dollar following FTX
collapse
PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 13 2022 8:00 AM EST
Heading into 2022, Coinbase debtholders showed little reason for concern. Even
though third-quarter earnings missed estimates,
revenue at the crypto exchange had more than quadrupled from the prior year and
the company was wildly profitable.
Coinbase ended last year with $7.1 billion in cash
and equivalents as crypto traders swarmed to the app to get in on the boom in
prices of bitcoin, ether and other digital currencies. The company was minting
so much money that, in April of last year, it went public through a direct listing instead
of an IPO, foregoing the opportunity to reel in a bundle of money from new
investors.
Rather than raising dilutive cash through a stock
sale, Coinbase tapped the bond market over the course of the year for $3.4
billion in long-term debt, choosing to pad its balance sheet with what it
described as “low-cost capital.”
As 2022 nears its end, Coinbase’s debt load is
looking more worrisome. Cash and equivalents dropped to $5 billion as of Sept. 30, having fallen for three
straight quarters — and that was before the FTX collapse in
November caused a panic across
the crypto industry.
Bond holders have been running for the exits. For over a month, Coinbase notes set to mature in 2031 have been trading around 50 cents on the dollar, down from about 92 cents at the beginning of the year. The company laid off 18% of its staff in July, when CEO Brian Armstrong admitted that he’d hired too quickly and needed to cut costs “to ensure we can successfully navigate a prolonged downturn.”
Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas said in an emailed
statement that the company is in a “strong capital position” and does “not have
a liquidity problem.”
More
Coinbase bonds trade near 50 cents on the dollar after
FTX collapse (cnbc.com)
This from the dry Irish wit of Patrick Boyle, Professor of Finance at Kings College, London. Approx.17 minutes. Tether anyone?
The
Institutional Investors Who Lost With FTX
The Institutional Investors Who Lost With FTX
- YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Copper prices —
traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next
year
PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 13 2022 1:16
AM EST
Copper — traditionally seen as a leading indicator
of economic health — has unsurprisingly had a rough year. But analysts expect a
resurgence in 2023, even as the global outlook remains highly uncertain.
Some of Wall Street’s biggest banks in recent weeks have suggested a combination of
short-term supply tightness and long-term energy transition-related demand will
push the red metal north from here.
The downward pressure in 2022 stemmed in part from persistent
market expectations for a surplus inflection in the metal market, driven by
anticipation of sluggish demand amid slowing global growth and an acceleration
of mining activity, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note last week.
However, this has not
come to fruition, and Goldman highlighted that the cathode market has remained
in a “clear deficit (GS estimate 210kt versus 131kt previously), with global
visible stocks falling to their lowest level in 14 years,” metals strategist
Nick Snowdown said.
“Equally important,
the surplus we previously expected for 2023 (169kt surplus) has also now
disappeared in our latest balance iteration (GSe 178kt deficit),” he added.
The metal — used in
many sectors — has also endured a tough 2022 due to tighter U.S. monetary
policy, the energy crisis arising from Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s
combination of strict Covid-19 lockdowns and a weak property market. LME copper
prices peaked at over $10,600/t in March this year.
Should China’s
relaxation of its zero-Covid restrictions advance further toward a reopening of
the economy, restocking is likely to play out, Goldman believes.
“If
China were to return its copper stock to consumption ratio to pre-2020 levels,
that would imply as much as a 500kt boost to physical demand,” Snowdown said.
More.
Federal Deficit Widened to a Record $249 Billion Last
Month
Spending
rose in November from a year earlier as tax receipts dropped
Dec. 12, 2022 2:00 pm ET
WASHINGTON—The monthly federal deficit was a record-setting
$249 billion in November, $57 billion wider than
the same month last year, as Republican control of the House puts the
government’s finances back in the political spotlight.
The federal government spent $501 billion last month,
a $28 billion increase to a record high, while tax revenue dropped by $29
billion compared with last November, with the government collecting $252
billion. Adjusting for calendar differences in last year’s tax receipts,
government tax revenue dropped $13 billion compared with last November, the
Treasury Department said Monday.
The
deficit narrowed sharply last fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30, as
broad fiscal support during the Covid-19 pandemic ended. At the same time,
rapid economic growth also helped power record-level tax revenues, contributing
to the smaller deficit.
Both those trends are on track to end this fiscal year. Government
spending won’t again drop precipitously as Congress has stopped approving huge,
one-time aid programs. As the Federal Reserve rapidly raises interest rates to combat the highest
inflation in decades, a slowing economy could also result in lower tax receipts
going forward.
The Fed’s tightening is also expected to create
higher borrowing costs for the government. The Treasury spent 53% more on
borrowing costs this November than it did last November.
With Republicans set to assume control of the House
next year, the federal government’s finances could once again become a political flashpoint. Some Republicans have said
they could refuse to raise the nation’s borrowing limit without an agreement on
broad cuts to the federal budget, including potentially Social Security and
Medicare.
Such a debate could bring the U.S. to the brink of
defaulting on its debt, a feature of clashes between Republicans and Democrats
during the Obama presidency. During the Trump era, Republicans largely let go
of their concerns about government spending and reached multiple agreements
with Democrats to raise the borrowing limit without imposing deep spending
cuts.
Federal Deficit Widened to a Record $249 Billion Last Month - WSJ
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
FDA Announces Recall of COVID-19 Tests Due to False Results
By December 13, 2022
The
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
on Tuesday announced a COVID-19 test
manufacturer is issuing a recall due to false test results.
The COVID-19 tests were made by
Detect Inc. and were sent to customers between July 26 and Aug. 26 of this
year, according to
the recall notice. It impacts about 11,000 tests, which were given an FDA
emergency use authorization, made by the firm.
“There is an increased chance
that the tests from the lot numbers listed below may give false negative
results,” the announcement said. “Detect has conducted a thorough investigation
to identify this issue and has made the decision to conduct a voluntary recall
for these lots.”
Detect Inc. said it has not
received any reports of false negative results related to the impacted lots and
said the recall is being done “out of an abundance of caution,” stressing that
the “reliability of positive test results is not affected.”
“Detect is notifying all
customers and distributors affected by the recall. Anyone in possession of any
unused tests from the affected lots should dispose of the tests,” the notice
said. “The outer packaging is recyclable while all the test components can be
discarded as regular trash. Detect Hubs are not affected by the recall and do
not need to be discarded.”
The lot numbers and use-by dates of the affected batches can be located on the side of the text box.
----Other Recalls and Alerts
Since the start of the COVID-19
pandemic, a number of test kits have been recalled or flagged by the FDA.
The FDA in March of this year said that
some COVID-19 rapid tests shouldn’t be used due to the possibility they’ll
produce false results. At the time, agency officials told consumers not to
use Celltrion DiaTrust COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test, the SD Biosensor Inc.
STANDARD Q COVID-19 Ag Home Test, and the Flowflex SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid
Test (Self-Testing).
A month before that, in February,
the FDA issued a warning about two tests made by Empowered Diagnostics
because the tests aren’t approved by the FDA.
“The U.S. Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) is warning people to stop using the Empowered Diagnostics
CovClear COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Test and ImmunoPass COVID-19 Neutralizing
Antibody Rapid Test,” the FDA statement said
at the time. “These tests were distributed with labeling indicating they are
authorized by the FDA, but neither test has been authorized, cleared, or
approved by the FDA for distribution or use in the United States.”
FDA Announces Recall of COVID-19 Tests Due to
False Results (theepochtimes.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Exclusive:
North Sea body backs hydrogen hub to power 20m homes
TUESDAY 13 DECEMBER 2022 7:00 AM
A vast offshore hydrogen project could help power
20m homes and businesses with low carbon energy, according to a new report from
the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).
It argues that the Bacton Energy Hub, which is
located off the coast of Norfolk, could both help ensure the UK’s energy
security and significantly reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The site is a carbon capture and storage (CCS) enabled and
electrolytic hydrogen project, set for further development over the
coming decade.
NSTA predicts the core project- referring to the
hydrogen and offshore gas facilities- is expected to cost £500m and can be
delivered by 2030 if a final investment decision is made by the third quarter
of 2025.
The project was launched by the NSTA and has been
supported by a consortium of companies including the Energy Transition
Authority, Petrofac, Progressive Energy Limited, Sumitomo Corporation, Turner
and Townsend, and Xodus.
NSTA predicts future hydrogen produced at
Bacton could be blended into the UK’s network of gas pipelines.
Currently the National Transmission System (NTS)
supplying gas to homes and businesses in London and South East of England is
100 per cent methane.
Blending 20 per cent of hydrogen into the NTS displaces the same quantity of methane, which in turn, creates the potential to reduce 1.5m tonnes per year of CO2 by the end of the decade, rising to 17m tonnes by 2050.
CCS-enabled (blue) hydrogen,
produced from natural gas, would form the early supply until the early 2040s.
After this, electrolytic
(green) hydrogen – produced through a process of splitting water
into hydrogen and oxygen called electrolysis – would take over.
Blue hydrogen creates CO2 as a by-product, but
Bacton would provide plentiful potential carbon storage fields – supported by
the NSTA’s carbon storage licensing round to meet those needs.
The NSTA calculates there are underdeveloped gas
reserves of up to 2tn cubic feet at Bacton which could be used as feedstock for
the production of blue hydrogen.
The hub will also include 15GW of offshore wind,
contributing 30 per cent of the energy generation for the UK’s 50GW target.
More
Exclusive: North
Sea body backs hydrogen hub to power 20m homes (cityam.com)
"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are
so many legal ways to be dishonest. “
Al Capone.
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