Wednesday, 14 December 2022

Fed Day 2. Will Powell Wilt? SBF Remanded.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1357 -04    Brent Crude 80.28

Spot Gold 1811         US 2 Year Yield 4.22 -0.17

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 14/12/22 World 654,855,973

Deaths 6,661,947

Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

Ebenezer Crypto, with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

It is day two of the US central bank meeting and the day they get to announce their latest interest rate hike. Anything more than 50 basis points will shock the US stock casinos, anything less will signal the inflation fight is over.

After the release, Fed Chairman Powell gets to share with us how the inept Fedsters see next year’s US economy shaping up.  That dream may or may not affect how the BOE, ECB and Swiss National Bank set their interest rates tomorrow.

European stocks head for mixed open as markets react to inflation data; Fed outcome ahead

UPDATED WED, DEC 14 2022 12:11 AM EST

European stocks are heading for a mixed open on Wednesday as global markets react to the latest U.S. inflation reading, and look ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later today.

Global markets rallied Tuesday after the latest U.S. inflation showed that consumer prices rose less than expected in November, signalling that inflationary pressures could be starting to ease.

The consumer price index, which measures a wide basket of goods and services, rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, data from the Labor Department showed. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month rate.

The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its last meeting of 2022 on Wednesday and economists widely expect the central bank to raise rates by half a percentage point..

Thursday will also see monetary policy decisions from the Bank of EnglandEuropean Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.

European markets live updates: Reaction to U.S. inflation, Fed outcome (cnbc.com)

Asia-Pacific markets rise on cooler inflation print, ahead of Fed rate decision

UPDATED WED, DEC 14 2022 12:56 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher on Wednesday, after stocks on Wall Street saw a second day of gains on an inflation print that came in cooler than expected.

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 1.08%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.34% and the Shanghai Composite was up 0.18% as traders watched for updates on a key economic policy meeting that has reportedly been delayed on a surge of Covid infections.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.79% while the Topix was 0.55% higher. South Korea’s Kospi also rose 1.04%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.67% higher.

Investors are also anticipating the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. Traders are largely pricing in a 50-basis point increase, a slight decline from the previous four hikes.

The U.S. dollar index last stood at 104.06 and the Japanese yen slightly strengthened to 135.38 against the greenback.

Morgan Stanley raises China 2023 GDP growth on reopening

Morgan Stanley raised its 2023 outlook for China’s economy in a note released Wednesday morning in Asia.

“We lift our already above-consensus GDP growth forecast to 5.4%,” strategists and economists including its chief Asia economist Chetan Ahya said in the report. The firm had previously set its growth forecast for next year at 5%.

“Investor positioning in China’s assets is still low and this recovery is not fully priced in equity and FX markets,” the note said, adding the revision reflects a rebound in activity predicted to come earlier than expected.

“We had previously expected a rebound in activity to materialize from late 2Q23. Now we are projecting mobility to improve from early March,” it said.

The report said further easing of restrictions will likely lead to a significant rise in Covid cases, though the firm says the impact of the surge will be short-lived.

Asia-Pacific markets rise on cooler inflation print, ahead of Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)

Finally, back in the unreal world, more on that Great Growing Crypto Fraud Scandal. Embezzlement, who’d have thought it?

FTX committed ‘old fashioned embezzlement,’ CEO tells lawmakers in blistering hearing

UPDATED TUE, DEC 13 2022 5:43 PM EST

The House Financial Services Committee held a hearing Tuesday on the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX following the Monday night arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas as U.S. regulators released a slew of civil and criminal charges against the one-time billionaire.

The Justice Department and Bahamian authorities said Bankman-Fried, who was previously scheduled to testify before the panel, was arrested based on an indictment in the U.S. that was unsealed shortly after the hearing started.

The U.S. Attorneys Office for the Southern District of New York charged the disgraced crypto executive with eight criminal counts: conspiracy to commit wire fraud and securities fraud, individual charges of securities fraud and wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy to avoid campaign finance regulations.

John J. Ray, the company’s new CEO and the panel’s sole witness, told lawmakers the company had “no record-keeping whatsoever,” using bookkeeping software QuickBooks to track its multibillion dollar portfolio.

“This is really just old fashioned embezzlement. This is just taking money from customers and using it for your own purpose. Not sophisticated at all,” Ray said in blistering testimony that lasted more than four hours. “Sophisticated, perhaps in the way they are hiding something, frankly, right in front of their eyes. This is just plain old embezzlement. Old school, old school.”

The company imploded and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last month after reportedly transferring billions of dollars in FTX customer funds to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also charged the former crypto “darling” Tuesday morning with allegedly “orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX Trading,” according to the agency.

The Senate Banking Committee had also asked Bankman-Fried to testify at a Wednesday hearing that he previously refused to attend.

More

FTX committed 'old fashioned embezzlement,' CEO tells lawmakers in blistering hearing (cnbc.com)

Binance halts withdrawals of major USDC stablecoin

LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Binance, the world's biggest crypto exchange, said on Tuesday it had "temporarily paused" withdrawals of the major stablecoin USDC.

"On USDC, we have seen an increase in withdrawals," Binance's chief executive Changpeng Zhao tweeted at around 0820 GMT.

Swapping USDC Coin with two other crypto tokens - Paxos Standard and Binance USD - requires using traditional dollars at a bank in New York, Zhao added. "The banks are not open for another few hours. We expect the situation will be restored when the banks open."

The swaps are "1:1 conversions, no margin or leverage involved. We will also try to establish more fluid swap channels in the future," he added.

Binance said in a separate tweet the halt was due to "token swap" - where digital token holders exchange their crypto coins, typically over different blockchains.

Binance said in September it would automatically convert user balances and new deposits of USD Coin and other stablecoins Pax Dollar and True USD into its own stablecoin, Binance USD.

Binance did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Reporting by Tom Wilson and Elizabeth Howcroft

Binance halts withdrawals of major USDC stablecoin | Reuters

Coinbase debtholders sweat as bonds trade near 50 cents on the dollar following FTX collapse

PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 13 2022 8:00 AM EST

Heading into 2022, Coinbase debtholders showed little reason for concern. Even though third-quarter earnings missed estimates, revenue at the crypto exchange had more than quadrupled from the prior year and the company was wildly profitable.

Coinbase ended last year with $7.1 billion in cash and equivalents as crypto traders swarmed to the app to get in on the boom in prices of bitcoinether and other digital currencies. The company was minting so much money that, in April of last year, it went public through a direct listing instead of an IPO, foregoing the opportunity to reel in a bundle of money from new investors.

Rather than raising dilutive cash through a stock sale, Coinbase tapped the bond market over the course of the year for $3.4 billion in long-term debt, choosing to pad its balance sheet with what it described as “low-cost capital.”

As 2022 nears its end, Coinbase’s debt load is looking more worrisome. Cash and equivalents dropped to $5 billion as of Sept. 30, having fallen for three straight quarters — and that was before the FTX collapse in November caused a panic across the crypto industry.

Bond holders have been running for the exits. For over a month, Coinbase notes set to mature in 2031 have been trading around 50 cents on the dollar, down from about 92 cents at the beginning of the year. The company laid off 18% of its staff in July, when CEO Brian Armstrong admitted that he’d hired too quickly and needed to cut costs “to ensure we can successfully navigate a prolonged downturn.”

Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas said in an emailed statement that the company is in a “strong capital position” and does “not have a liquidity problem.”

More

Coinbase bonds trade near 50 cents on the dollar after FTX collapse (cnbc.com)

 This from the dry Irish wit of Patrick Boyle, Professor of Finance at Kings College, London. Approx.17 minutes. Tether anyone?

The Institutional Investors Who Lost With FTX

 The Institutional Investors Who Lost With FTX - YouTube

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Copper prices — traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next year

PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 13 2022 1:16 AM EST

Copper — traditionally seen as a leading indicator of economic health — has unsurprisingly had a rough year. But analysts expect a resurgence in 2023, even as the global outlook remains highly uncertain.

Some of Wall Street’s biggest banks in recent weeks have suggested a combination of short-term supply tightness and long-term energy transition-related demand will push the red metal north from here.

The downward pressure in 2022 stemmed in part from persistent market expectations for a surplus inflection in the metal market, driven by anticipation of sluggish demand amid slowing global growth and an acceleration of mining activity, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note last week.

However, this has not come to fruition, and Goldman highlighted that the cathode market has remained in a “clear deficit (GS estimate 210kt versus 131kt previously), with global visible stocks falling to their lowest level in 14 years,” metals strategist Nick Snowdown said.

“Equally important, the surplus we previously expected for 2023 (169kt surplus) has also now disappeared in our latest balance iteration (GSe 178kt deficit),” he added.

The metal — used in many sectors — has also endured a tough 2022 due to tighter U.S. monetary policy, the energy crisis arising from Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s combination of strict Covid-19 lockdowns and a weak property market. LME copper prices peaked at over $10,600/t in March this year.

Should China’s relaxation of its zero-Covid restrictions advance further toward a reopening of the economy, restocking is likely to play out, Goldman believes.

“If China were to return its copper stock to consumption ratio to pre-2020 levels, that would imply as much as a 500kt boost to physical demand,” Snowdown said.

More.

Copper prices — traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next year (cnbc.com)

Federal Deficit Widened to a Record $249 Billion Last Month

Spending rose in November from a year earlier as tax receipts dropped

Dec. 12, 2022 2:00 pm ET

WASHINGTON—The monthly federal deficit was a record-setting $249 billion in November, $57 billion wider than the same month last year, as Republican control of the House puts the government’s finances back in the political spotlight. 

The federal government spent $501 billion last month, a $28 billion increase to a record high, while tax revenue dropped by $29 billion compared with last November, with the government collecting $252 billion. Adjusting for calendar differences in last year’s tax receipts, government tax revenue dropped $13 billion compared with last November, the Treasury Department said Monday. 

The deficit narrowed sharply last fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30, as broad fiscal support during the Covid-19 pandemic ended. At the same time, rapid economic growth also helped power record-level tax revenues, contributing to the smaller deficit. 

Both those trends are on track to end this fiscal year. Government spending won’t again drop precipitously as Congress has stopped approving huge, one-time aid programs. As the Federal Reserve rapidly raises interest rates to combat the highest inflation in decades, a slowing economy could also result in lower tax receipts going forward. 

The Fed’s tightening is also expected to create higher borrowing costs for the government. The Treasury spent 53% more on borrowing costs this November than it did last November. 

With Republicans set to assume control of the House next year, the federal government’s finances could once again become a political flashpoint. Some Republicans have said they could refuse to raise the nation’s borrowing limit without an agreement on broad cuts to the federal budget, including potentially Social Security and Medicare. 

Such a debate could bring the U.S. to the brink of defaulting on its debt, a feature of clashes between Republicans and Democrats during the Obama presidency. During the Trump era, Republicans largely let go of their concerns about government spending and reached multiple agreements with Democrats to raise the borrowing limit without imposing deep spending cuts. 

Federal Deficit Widened to a Record $249 Billion Last Month - WSJ

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

FDA Announces Recall of COVID-19 Tests Due to False Results

By Jack Phillips    December 13, 2022 

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Tuesday announced a COVID-19 test manufacturer is issuing a recall due to false test results.

The COVID-19 tests were made by Detect Inc. and were sent to customers between July 26 and Aug. 26 of this year, according to the recall notice. It impacts about 11,000 tests, which were given an FDA emergency use authorization, made by the firm.

“There is an increased chance that the tests from the lot numbers listed below may give false negative results,” the announcement said. “Detect has conducted a thorough investigation to identify this issue and has made the decision to conduct a voluntary recall for these lots.”

Detect Inc. said it has not received any reports of false negative results related to the impacted lots and said the recall is being done “out of an abundance of caution,” stressing that the “reliability of positive test results is not affected.”

“Detect is notifying all customers and distributors affected by the recall. Anyone in possession of any unused tests from the affected lots should dispose of the tests,” the notice said. “The outer packaging is recyclable while all the test components can be discarded as regular trash. Detect Hubs are not affected by the recall and do not need to be discarded.”

The lot numbers and use-by dates of the affected batches can be located on the side of the text box.

----Other Recalls and Alerts

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of test kits have been recalled or flagged by the FDA.

The FDA in March of this year said that some COVID-19 rapid tests shouldn’t be used due to the possibility they’ll produce false results. At the time, agency officials told consumers not to use Celltrion DiaTrust COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test, the SD Biosensor Inc. STANDARD Q COVID-19 Ag Home Test, and the Flowflex SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Test (Self-Testing).

A month before that, in February, the FDA issued a warning about two tests made by Empowered Diagnostics because the tests aren’t approved by the FDA.

“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is warning people to stop using the Empowered Diagnostics CovClear COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Test and ImmunoPass COVID-19 Neutralizing Antibody Rapid Test,” the FDA statement said at the time. “These tests were distributed with labeling indicating they are authorized by the FDA, but neither test has been authorized, cleared, or approved by the FDA for distribution or use in the United States.”

FDA Announces Recall of COVID-19 Tests Due to False Results (theepochtimes.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Exclusive: North Sea body backs hydrogen hub to power 20m homes

TUESDAY 13 DECEMBER 2022 7:00 AM

A vast offshore hydrogen project could help power 20m homes and businesses with low carbon energy, according to a new report from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).

It argues that the Bacton Energy Hub, which is located off the coast of Norfolk, could both help ensure the UK’s energy security and significantly reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The site is a carbon capture and storage (CCS) enabled and electrolytic hydrogen project, set for further development over the coming decade.

NSTA predicts the core project- referring to the hydrogen and offshore gas facilities- is expected to cost £500m and can be delivered by 2030 if a final investment decision is made by the third quarter of 2025.

The project was launched by the NSTA and has been supported by a consortium of companies including the Energy Transition Authority, Petrofac, Progressive Energy Limited, Sumitomo Corporation, Turner and Townsend, and Xodus.

NSTA predicts future hydrogen produced at Bacton could be blended into the UK’s network of gas pipelines.

Currently the National Transmission System (NTS) supplying gas to homes and businesses in London and South East of England is 100 per cent methane.

Blending 20 per cent of hydrogen into the NTS displaces the same quantity of methane, which in turn, creates the potential to reduce 1.5m tonnes per year of CO2 by the end of the decade, rising to 17m tonnes by 2050.

CCS-enabled (blue) hydrogen, produced from natural gas, would form the early supply until the early 2040s.

After this, electrolytic (green) hydrogen – produced through a process of splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen called electrolysis – would take over.

Blue hydrogen creates CO2 as a by-product, but Bacton would provide plentiful potential carbon storage fields – supported by the NSTA’s carbon storage licensing round to meet those needs.

The NSTA calculates there are underdeveloped gas reserves of up to 2tn cubic feet at Bacton which could be used as feedstock for the production of blue hydrogen.

The hub will also include 15GW of offshore wind, contributing 30 per cent of the energy generation for the UK’s 50GW target.

More

Exclusive: North Sea body backs hydrogen hub to power 20m homes (cityam.com)

"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are so many legal ways to be dishonest. “

Al Capone.


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