Baltic Dry Index. 1515 Fri. Brent Crude 84.57
Spot Gold 1804 US 2 Year Yield 4.31 Fri.
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 27/12/22 World 662,155,970
Deaths 6,687,234
I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.
Jesse Livermore.
It is the
final trading week of the year. Normally a time for the stock hustlers in the
casinos to use the thin trading conditions to dress up the year-end stock index
closes.
But 2022
has been anything but a good year for most stocks and 2023 doesn’t look any
better at least out to mid-year.
Ominously,
Brent Crude is rising again probably in anticipation of rising Chinese demand
as their economy really reopens after the Lunar New Year.
Food
price inflation is unlikely to ease until we get to see how the northern
hemisphere crop acreage comes in and if the weather in 2023 is more normal than
2022s turned out to be.
Meanwhile
the UK and rump-EU seem to be headed into a strike driven new recession.
For good measure, NATO’s proxy war on Russia looks like expanding, while Serbia v NATO Kosovo looks likely to start.
Asia markets rise
as China says it will end quarantine for inbound travelers
UPDATED TUE, DEC 27 2022 12:03 AM EST
Stocks in Asia rose as China officially announced overnight
it will end quarantine for inbound travelers on Jan. 8 — symbolizing an
end to its zero-Covid policy that it’s held for nearly three years.
The nation also downgraded Covid to a less
strict Category B, health authorities said, from its current top-level Category
A.
The Shanghai
Composite rose 0.64% and the Shenzhen
Component gained 0.85% while
markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for Christmas
holiday.
In Japan, the Nikkei
225 rose 0.32% and the Topix gained
0.5% as the nation saw retail sales up
for the 9th consecutive month led by tourism. The Kospi in South Korea gained
0.78% and the Kosdaq climbed 0.77%.
In the U.S., Wall Street ended last week with
some gains for the S&P and Nasdaq Composite while posting a weekly loss as recession fears
continued to batter investor sentiment. The core personal consumption
expenditures price index for November came in at 4.7%, slightly hotter than
expectations on an annualized basis.
U.S. winter storm to
move global oil markets, says analyst
The severe winter snowstorm, which swept across the U.S. over the last few days, will have
spillover effects onto the global energy market, said Andy Lipow, President of
Lipow Oil Associates.
Crude oil production in North Dakota was cut by
300,000 barrels a day as a result of the blizzard, Lipow said, adding that
there was a decline of 10% to 15% of the country’s natural gas production due
to the cold weather phenomenon.
“That’s going to impact the world oil markets as
[the U.S. is] exporting significant amounts of gasoline diesel, especially into
Europe and South America,” said Lipow.
He added that LNG exports to other countries have
been hindered as a result of temporary shutdowns of some ports along the Texas
Gulf Coast due to high winds.
However, Lipow said that weather is “always a temporary
phenomenon,” and that gasoline supplies remain in “good shape.”
Asia markets rise
as China says it will end quarantine for inbound travelers (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
rise heading into the final trading week of 2022
UPDATED MON, DEC 26 2022 7:00 PM
EST
U.S. stock futures rose on Monday night as
investors head into the final trading days of 2022, deliberating whether a
Santa Claus rally will appear and lift a market that has been weighed down by
recession fears.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 157
points, or 0.47%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.61% and 0.73%,
respectively.
During the regular session Friday, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average closed 176 points higher, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 rose
0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%.
Friday marked the start of the time period for a
Santa Claus rally, which is typically considered the final five-day trading stretch
in the current year, as well as the
first two trading days in the new year. Markets were closed Monday for the
Christmas holiday.
Due to low trading volumes, investors are
expecting either relative quiet or further volatility during the
holiday-shortened week. Markets are closing out a month and year defined by a surge in recession fears.
In December, the S&P 500 dropped roughly
5.8%, while the Dow and Nasdaq dropped about 4% and 8.5%, respectively. These
are the biggest monthly declines since September. The major averages are headed
for their worst annual performance since 2008.
″[The] question of what kind of recession
remains unanswered,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial,
wrote Friday. “And for this, the answer is dictated primarily from how much
more the Fed needs to raise rates to finally tackle sticky inflation.”
On the economic front, traders are expecting the
latest data on November wholesale inventories and the October
S&P/Case-Shiller home prices Tuesday before the bell.
Stock futures rise heading into the final trading week of 2022 (cnbc.com)
In crypto
fantasy land, it looks like FTX/SBF/FTT was crooked from the start. Who knew what and when? A lot more to come in
2023 it seems.
Who’s
next to blow up in cryptoland?
Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX
misled investors, lent billions to Alameda, Caroline Ellison says
Mon, December 26, 2022 at 7:11 AM GMT
Caroline Ellison, former chief
executive of trading firm Alameda Research, told a federal judge last week that
she agreed with executives of FTX, including former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, to
mislead lenders and customers on how much Alameda was borrowing from the
now-bankrupt exchange.
Fast facts
·
In a transcript of a Monday hearing
unsealed on Friday, Ellison
said that she knew “it was wrong” and that she was aware that Alameda was given
access to a borrowing facility on FTX.com from 2019 through 2022.
·
“We prepared certain
quarterly balance sheets that concealed the extent of Alameda’s borrowing and
the billions of dollars in loans that Alameda had made to FTX executives and to
related parties,” Ellison, who has pleaded guilty to fraud charges surrounding the collapse of FTX,
said.
·
FTX cofounder Gary
Wang joined Ellison in pleading guilty to fraud. Both key figures of the
Bankman-Fried empire are cooperating with prosecutors’ investigations into the
exchange’s collapse.
·
Bankman-Fried is
facing multiple criminal charges and was extradited from the Bahamas last week.
He was released on Thursday through a US$250 million bail package, which prosecutor Nicolas Roos called the “largest ever
pretrial bond.”
Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX misled investors, lent billions
to Alameda, Caroline Ellison says (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
U.S. holiday spending increased thanks to discounts, Mastercard
data says
DEC. 26, 2022 / 6:54 PM
Dec. 26 (UPI) -- The holiday shopping season saw an uptick in consumer spending
with heavy discounts luring shoppers in despite inflation, according to
Mastercard SpendingPulse data.
"This
holiday retail season looked different than years past," said Steve
Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard.
"Retailers
discounted heavily but consumers diversified their holiday spending to
accommodate rising prices and an appetite for experiences and festive
gatherings post-pandemic."
Between
Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, retail sales increased by about 7.6% over the same period
in 2021 across the United States when excluding automotive purchases.
Online
shopping had another strong year, growing by about 10.6%. E-commerce accounted
for about 21.6% of retail sales, compared to a 20.9% share in 2021. In-store
shopping increased by about 6.8%.
Any
speculation that Black Friday has lost its appeal was not reflected in
Mastercard's data. Black Friday shopping increased by about 12% as the biggest
spending day of the season. Weekend shopping, particularly Saturday shopping in
December was the next most active time for business.
While
retail drew shoppers to the stores, restaurants were a big benefactor, seeing
an increase of more than 15% in sales. There was a 4.4% increase in apparel
sales and about 1% more spent at department stores.
Sales did
not increase across the board however. Electronics and jewelry sales decreased
by more than 5% each.
"Consumers
are trying to spread out their budget, and they are evaluating and shopping at
different stores," Katie Thompson, the lead of consultancy Kearney's
Consumer Institute, told CBS News.
U.S. holiday spending increased thanks to discounts, Mastercard data says - UPI.com
Japan retail
sales up for 9th month led by tourism help
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 26 2022 8:03
PM EST
Japanese retail sales rose for a ninth straight month
in November, data showed on Tuesday, as the lifting of Covid-19 border controls
and the government’s domestic travel subsidy helped consumer demand.
But from the previous month, sales fell from
October, with price increases in daily necessities weighing
on Japanese households as the nation’s core consumer
inflation rate hit a fresh
40-year high, indicating price hikes were broadening.
A recovery in private consumption, which makes up
more than half of Japan’s economy, is key to driving
growth in the economy, which unexpectedly shrank in the third
quarter.
Retail sales grew
2.6% from the year earlier but short of a median forecast of
3.7%. The pace of annual growth in sales, a barometer of private
consumption, slowed from 4.4% in October and 4.8% in September.
On a seasonally
adjusted basis, retail sales slipped 1.1% in November from the previous month,
down for the first time in five months.
Data showed last week that visitor arrivals to Japan jumped to nearly 1 million in November, the first
full month after the country scrapped Covid-19 curbs that effectively halted
tourism for more than two years.
A government domestic travel subsidy campaign to
help the pandemic-hit tourism industry, which started in mid-October, also
encouraged people to spend on travel and travel goods.
Separate data showed Japan’s jobless rate fell to 2.5% in November, in line with a
forecast in a Reuters poll, and down from 2.6% in October.
The jobs-to-applicants ratio, a key gauge of job
availability, was at 1.35, unchanged from October and holding at the highest
level since March 2020.
Bank of Japan Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday voiced hope
that intensifying labour shortages would prod firms to raise wages, while he
brushed aside the chance of a near-term exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.
More
Japan retail sales up for 9th month led by tourism help (cnbc.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Ivermectin Is Safe and Effective: The Evidence
Dec 25 2022
Ivermectin is on the World Health Organization (WHO) List of Essential
Medicines and is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
This well-tolerated but potent anti-parasitic medicine has been prescribed
billions of times in its 36-year history against a wide range of parasites. It
is a drug in the avermectin family, so named because those compounds are
produced by the soil organism Streptomyces avermitilis.
It has also been studied and used against a wide range of viruses especially
over the last decade, and there is evidence of potent antiviral effects against
Influenza A and over a dozen other viruses tested. [309]
In a meta-analysis of 63 studies of ivermectin versus COVID-19 in
humans, 100% of these have shown positive results. Studies were from all
continents except Antarctica. Considered individually, 29 of those
studies were found to be statistically significant regarding use of ivermectin
alone. Over the 63 studies in meta-analysis, pooled effects showed
69% improvement in early treatment, and prophylactic use showed 86%
improvement. Of those studies in the meta-analysis that were
peer-reviewed, overall improvement in early treatment was found to be 70% (64%
in randomized controlled trials), and 86% of those in which ivermectin was used
prophylactically showed improvement (84% in randomized controlled trials).
Mortality from COVID-19 over all time periods of delay in treatment was
76% improved over controls (69% in randomized controlled trials), whereas
mortality was improved 84% in early treatment of COVID-19 (82% in randomized
controlled trials). Forty studies were excluded from the meta-analysis
for complicating factors or insufficient detail reported, and these also showed
100% positive results.
It is estimated that the likelihood of an ineffective treatment showing
such positive results as the above results in the 63 studies in the
meta-analysis to date is exceedingly small. That probability is
estimated to be one in one trillion. [310] The overall results of the
meta-analysis were not only found to be “overwhelmingly positive,” but also
“very consistent, and very insensitive to potential selection criteria, effect
extraction rules, and/or bias evaluation.” The data in the
meta-analysis are as of date of this article, and are continually updated as
new studies are reported.
The first clinical trial of ivermectin in COVID-19 patients was an
observational study in four Florida hospitals from March to May 2020.
Even in patients with severe pulmonary involvement, mortality was
38.8% in the treatment group vs 80.7% in controls, and this group showed the
strongest mortality difference from controls, which raised the possibility of
ivermectin also being available as a salvage or rescue treatment. [311]
In a randomized controlled trial, patients given ivermectin were 8 times
more likely to be medically released than those in the placebo group.
This was even though the average age and number of comorbidities were later
found to be somewhat higher in the experimental group than in the control
group. [312]
The African continent has had remarkably low incidence of COVID-19,
particularly equatorial African countries. It may be helpful to look at
African countries where ivermectin has been used commonly for decades against
the onchocerciasis that it has been prescribed for, to observe population-wide
effects. In this population comparison, risk of COVID-19 death was found
to be 88.2% lower and morbidity 85.7% lower in 31 countries where
onchocerciasis is endemic and ivermectin is commonly used than in 22 countries
where neither is the case, even though the latter group of countries has a
higher life expectancy, 66 years vs 61 years. [313]
More
Ivermectin Is Safe
and Effective: The Evidence (theepochtimes.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Has the EU’s Graphene Flagship hit its 10-year targets?
The program's director reviews the
decade's progress
December 23, 2022 - 4:06 pm
In the spring of 2010,
physicist Jari Kinaret received an email from the European Commission. The EU’s
executive arm was seeking pitches from scientists for ambitious new
megaprojects. Known as flagships, the initiatives would focus on innovations
that could transform Europe’s scientific and industrial
landscape.
Kinaret, a professor at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, examined the initial proposals.
“I was not very impressed,” the
60-year-old tells TNW. “I thought they could find better ideas.”
As it happened, Kinaret had an
idea of his own: growing graphene. He decided to submit the topic for
consideration.
That proposal lay the
foundation for the Graphene
Flagship: the largest-ever European research program.
Launched in 2013 with a €1 billion budget, the project aimed to bring the
“wonder material” into the mainstream within 10 years.
On the eve of that deadline,
TNW spoke to Kinaret about the project’s progress over the past decade — and
his hopes for the next one.
Graphene arrives in Europe
Scientists have pursued the
single sheet of carbon atoms that constitute graphene since 1859, but its
existence wasn’t confirmed until 2004. The big breakthrough was sparked by a
strikingly simple product: sticky tape.
Andre Geim and Konstantin
Novoselov, two physicists at the University of Manchester, would regularly hold
“Friday night experiments,” where they’d explore outlandish ideas. At one
such session, adhesive tape was used to extract tiny flakes from a lump of
graphite. After repeatedly separating the thinnest fragments, they created
flakes that were just one atom thick.
The researchers had isolated
graphene — the first two-dimensional material ever discovered.
More
Has the EU’s
Graphene Flagship hit its 10-year targets? (thenextweb.com)
I
knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if
something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard
against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market.
Jesse
Livermore.
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