Baltic Dry Index. 1596 +48 Brent Crude 80.28
Spot Gold 1814 US 2 Year Yield 4.25 unch.
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 21/12/22 World 658,900,623
Deaths 6,675,696
Former regulators
and ex-Binance executives say these local businesses serve as window dressing
for the main unregulated exchange.
"They are
co-opting the nomenclature of regulation to create a veneer of
legitimacy," said John Reed Stark, a former chief of the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission's Office of Internet Enforcement. Stark said Binance's
operations were more opaque even than those of FTX. "There is absolutely
no transparency, no sunlight, no confirmation of any kind about its financial
position."
In a thin
trading weeks in the runup to the
Christmas – New Year holidays, normally the bulls try to dress up stocks to
improve year-end bonuses. But this year it’s hard to dress up a losing year for
most stocks.
Worse,
the prospects for stock and cryptos look bleak for much of 2023.
On the
positive side, China has mostly abandoned its bizarre Covid-19 lockdown
policy. China’s economy ought to start picking up only to soon run into the annual slowdown for their lunar new year
holiday. The inverted US yield curve seems to be flattening slightly, though I
wouldn’t read too much into that at year-end.
On the negative
side, the NATO proxy war on Russia continues with no end in sight; Europe is
leading the rest of the global economy into recession; US smaller banks are
suddenly, unexpectedly raising money from the Federal Reserve. Is another US
banking problem ahead in Q1 2023? The
fall-out from the FTX crypto fraud is still only just getting underway.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly higher as Japanese stocks see second day of losses
UPDATED TUE, DEC 20 2022 11:34 PM
EST
Markets in
the Asia-Pacific traded mixed after Wall Street ended its four-day losing
streak as global bonds rose after the Bank
of Japan adjusted its yield curve control tolerance.
Japan continued its second day of
losses, as the Nikkei 225 fell
0.7% and the Topix lost 0.63%. The Japanese yen stood
at 132.17 against the U.S. dollar. The Kospi in South Korea erased earlier
gains and traded 0.14% lower.
The S&P/ASX
200 in
Australia rose 1.32% as the country’s foreign minister Penny Wong is slated to
meet her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing. Wong told reporters before
departing for the trip that she will push China to lift trade sanctions and
seek consular access for two detained Australians.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained
0.2% as Chief Executive John Lee is scheduled to travel to Beijing as
part of his annual visit until Saturday to brief state leaders on the city’s
economic, social and political situation.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component fell
0.19% and the Shanghai
Composite rose 0.15%.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly higher as Japanese stocks see second day of losses (cnbc.com)
Disney stock on its
way to worst year since 1974 after ‘Avatar’ sequel disappoints
Shares decline 5% to lowest
since March 2020 after Disney expressed disappointment with ‘Avatar’ box-office
returns in China
“Avatar: The Way of
Water” couldn’t reverse Walt Disney Co.’s recent funk, which has the stock on a
path for its worst year since 1974.
Disney shares DIS,
Disney had hoped to clean up in China, where the first
movie in 2009 did blockbuster business. “The Way of Water” earned $57.1 million
there, which Disney described in a Wall Street Journal report as disappointing but
understandable.
“The problem is nobody wants to go to the cinema, because
they’ve been told that COVID is extremely dangerous,” Tony Chambers, Disney’s
global head of theatrical distribution, said in the article. “Although cinemas
are open, the appetite for going to them isn’t really there.”
The news helped send Disney’s stock down 4.8% Monday, the
biggest decline of the day for a Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
More
Disney
stock on its way to worst year since 1974 after 'Avatar' sequel disappoints -
MarketWatch
Japan
warns of China's COVID situation, cuts view on factory output
December 21, 2022 12:55
AM GMT
TOKYO, Dec 21
(Reuters) - Japan will pay close attention to the COVID-19 situation in China,
in addition to risks from a global economic slowdown, price hikes and supply
constraints, according to its monthly report for December.
The
economic report from the Cabinet Office comes as Japan, the world's third-largest
economy, wrestles with sluggish global growth and high import costs that have
weighed on its exports and manufacturing activity.
The government
cut its view on factory output for the first time in six months as global
demand for semiconductors is pausing, but it kept its assessment on the overall
economy unchanged by saying it was "improving moderately".
"If
China's infection situation impacts on supply chains or trades, it could also
impact on Japan's economy as we've seen earlier this year," a Cabinet
Office official said.
Meanwhile, Tokyo
upgraded its view on business sentiment for the first time in a year to say it
was showing signs of recovery. Previously, the government said recovery in
business sentiment was pausing.
Corporations
posted upbeat earnings, and those of manufacturers were especially inflated by
a weak yen. The government's support for a domestic travel discount programme
and reopening to foreign tourists helped the business mood for
non-manufacturers.
In other key
economic areas, the Cabinet Office left its view on private consumption
unchanged saying it was moderately picking up.
It
also said capital spending was recovering.
The
report reiterated that the government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve its
2% price target stably based on the economy, prices and financial situation.
The central bank jolted markets on
Tuesday with a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that allows long-term
interest rates to rise more, a move aimed at easing some of the costs of
prolonged monetary stimulus.
Japan warns of China's COVID situation, cuts view on factory output | Reuters
Finally,
is Binance the next FTX? Hopefully not. But something about ducks comes to
mind.
Special
Report: Binance's books are a black box, filings show, as it tries to rally
confidence
December 19, 2022 8:35 PM GMT
LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The world's
biggest crypto exchange, Binance, is battling to shore up confidence after a
surge in customer withdrawals and a steep drop in the value of its digital
token.
The exchange said it dealt with net
outflows of around $6 billion over 72 hours last week "without breaking
stride" because its finances are solid and "we take our
responsibility as a custodian seriously." After the collapse of rival
exchange FTX last month, Binance's founder Changpeng Zhao promised his company
would "lead by example" in embracing transparency.
Yet a Reuters analysis of Binance's
corporate filings shows that the core of the business – the giant Binance.com
exchange that has processed trades worth over $22 trillion this year – remains
mostly hidden from public view.
Binance declines to say where
Binance.com is based. It doesn't disclose basic financial information such as
revenue, profit and cash reserves. The company has its own crypto coin, but
doesn't reveal what role it plays on its balance sheet. It lends customers
money against their crypto assets and lets them trade on margin, with borrowed
funds. But it doesn't detail how big those bets are, how exposed Binance is to
that risk, or the full extent of its reserves to finance withdrawals
Binance is not required to publish
detailed financial statements because it is not a public company, unlike U.S.
rival Coinbase, which is listed on the Nasdaq. Nor has Binance raised outside
capital since 2018, industry data show, which means it hasn't had to share
financial information with external investors since then.
And as Reuters reported in October, Binance has actively avoided
oversight. Zhao approved a plan by lieutenants to "insulate"
Binance's main operation from U.S. regulatory scrutiny by setting up a new
American exchange, according to company messages and interviews with former
employees, advisers and business associates. Zhao denied signing off on the
plan and said the unit was set up with advice from top law firms.
Binance's huge role in the crypto
market – it accounts for over half of all trading volume – has made its
operations a keen topic of interest for U.S. regulators. The company is under
investigation by the U.S. Justice Department for possible money-laundering and
sanctions violations, and Reuters reported this month that some prosecutors
believe they have gathered sufficient evidence to charge Binance and some top
executives.
More
Boris Johnson's
brother quits as adviser to Binance unit
December 19, 2022
(Reuters) -Binance said on Monday Jo Johnson, brother of former British
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, had resigned from the UK advisory board of its
unit, as the cryptocurrency industry braces for further pain in the aftermath
of the FTX fiasco last month.
Johnson had
joined Bifinity, a payments technology company that Binance launched in March
this year, as an adviser in September, according to The Telegraph, which first
reported the news of his exit.
Celebrities
and other prominent proponents of crypto have sought to distance themselves
from the nascent asset class after Binance rival FTX filed for bankruptcy last
month following a liquidity crunch.
“Lord Johnson
has recently taken on the role of Executive Chairman of FutureLearn. He will be
focusing on his new role within the digital learning platform, and is looking
to scale back other activities," Binance said in an emailed statement.
A spokesperson
for Johnson did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Reuters
reported in October that Binance had sought ways to circumvent regulatory
scrutiny in Britain. Last year, the country's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
had also warned that Binance did not hold any form of permission to offer
services regulated by Britain.
Boris Johnson's
brother quits as adviser to Binance unit (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
World
Bank cuts China growth outlook on COVID, property woes
December 20, 2022
8:07 AM GMT
BEIJING, Dec 20 (Reuters) - The World
Bank has cut its China growth outlook for this year and next, citing the impact
of the abrupt loosening of strict COVID-19 containment measures and persistent
property sector weakness.
The Washington-based lender, in a
report released on Tuesday, said it expected China's economy to grow 2.7% in
2022, before recovering to 4.3% in 2023 as it reopens following the worst of
the pandemic.
The bank's expected expansion for 2022
would be well below the official target of around 5.5%.
In September, the World Bank forecast
China's growth at 2.8% this year and 4.5% next year.
"China's growth outlook is subject
to significant risks, stemming from the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic,
of how policies evolve in response to the COVID-19 situation, and the
behavioral responses of households and businesses," the bank said in its
report.
"Persistent stress in the real
estate sector could have wider macroeconomic and financial spillovers."
China also faces highly uncertain
global growth prospects and heightened geopolitical tension, the lender said.
Last week, Chinese
leaders pledged to step up policy adjustment to support the slowing
economy, to cushion the impact on businesses and consumers of a surge in
COVID-19 infections at a time when a weakening global economy is hurting
exports.
World Bank cuts
China growth outlook on COVID, property woes | Reuters
Two
Chinese property developers to raise funds via discounted share sales
December 20, 2022 3:39 AM GMT
HONG KONG, Dec 20
(Reuters) - CIFI Holdings (0884.HK) on
Tuesday became the latest Chinese property developer to raise funds by selling
new shares at discounted prices, while Agile Group (3383.HK) announced
its second such capital raising since November.
After a raft of
government measures supported their share prices, a number of developers
including heavyweights like Country Garden (2007.HK) have
since November turned to top-up share placements.
The method, in
which a controlling shareholder sells existing shares and then the company
issues the same amount of new shares to them, allows funds to be raised without
any large dilution in stake for the controlling shareholder.
Shanghai-based
CIFI, which is undergoing an offshore debt restructuring, said it would raise
HK$957.6 million ($123 million) by selling shares at HK$1.14 apiece, a 14%
discount to Monday's closing price.
Guangzhou-based
Agile said it would raise HK$617.2 million ($79.3 million) by selling shares at
HK$2.32 apiece, a 17.4% discount to Monday's closing price. It is the second
top-up placement for Agile since November when it raised HK$783 million.
The companies,
which saw their shares slide in line with the discounted share sale prices,
said they would use the proceeds to repay existing debt.
China's property
sector has over the past one and a half- years been grappling with a severe
debt crisis - initially triggered by government moves to rein in ballooning
debt - with many developers defaulting as they struggle to sell apartments and
raise funds.
Two Chinese property developers to raise funds via discounted share sales | Reuters
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
COVID-19 tools used to
expand global surveillance
Tue, December 20, 2022 at 5:04 AM GMT
From
Beijing to Jerusalem to Hyderabad, India, The Associated Press has found that
authorities used COVID-19 technologies and data to halt travel for activists
and ordinary people, and link people’s health information to other surveillance
and law enforcement tools.(Dec. 20)
Video.
COVID-19 tools
used to expand global surveillance (yahoo.com)
Police seize on COVID-19 tech to expand global surveillance
Tue, December 20, 2022 at 5:26 AM GMT
JERUSALEM (AP) — Majd Ramlawi was
serving coffee in Jerusalem’s Old City when a chilling text message appeared on
his phone.
“You have been spotted as having
participated in acts of violence in the Al-Aqsa Mosque,” it read in Arabic. “We
will hold you accountable.”
Ramlawi, then 19, was among hundreds
of people who civil rights attorneys estimate got the text last year, at the
height of one of the most turbulent recent periods in the Holy Land. Many,
including Ramlawi, say they only lived or worked in the neighborhood, and had
nothing to do with the unrest. What he didn’t know was that the feared internal
security agency, the Shin Bet, was using mass surveillance technology mobilized
for coronavirus contact tracing, against Israeli residents and citizens for
purposes entirely unrelated to COVID-19.
In the pandemic’s bewildering early
days, millions worldwide believed government officials who said they needed
confidential data for new tech tools that could help stop coronavirus’ spread.
In return, governments got a firehose of individuals’ private health details,
photographs that captured their facial measurements and their home addresses.
Now, from Beijing to Jerusalem to
Hyderabad, India, and Perth, Australia, The Associated Press has found that
authorities used these technologies and data to halt travel for activists and
ordinary people, harass marginalized communities and link people’s health
information to other surveillance and law enforcement tools. In some cases,
data was shared with spy agencies. The issue has taken on fresh urgency almost
three years into the pandemic as China’s ultra-strict zero-COVID policies
recently ignited the sharpest public rebuke of the country’s authoritarian
leadership since the pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
For more than a year, AP journalists
interviewed sources and pored over thousands of documents to trace how
technologies marketed to “flatten the curve” were put to other uses. Just as
the balance between privacy and national security shifted after the Sept. 11
terrorist attacks, COVID-19 has given officials justification to embed tracking
tools in society that have lasted long after lockdowns.
“Any intervention that increases
state power to monitor individuals has a long tail and is a ratcheting system,”
said John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the Toronto-based internet
watchdog Citizen Lab. “Once you get it, is very unlikely it will ever go away.”
CODE RED
In China, the last major country in
the world to enforce strict COVID-19 lockdowns, citizens have been required to
install cell-phone apps to move about freely in most cities. Drawing from
telecommunications data and PCR test results, the apps produce individual QR
codes that change from green to yellow or red, depending on a person’s health
status.
More
Police seize on
COVID-19 tech to expand global surveillance (yahoo.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Perovskite/silicon
tandem solar cell advance breaks efficiency record
Michael Irving December 19, 2022
Perovskite and silicon are proving to be a
formidable duo in the world of solar cells, and now they’ve hit a new record
efficiency. A team at Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin (HZB) have developed solar cells
with an efficiency of over 32%.
Silicon has long been the industry standard for
solar cells, thanks to its efficiency, durability and cost, but current devices
are approaching the theoretical maximum limit of efficiency. Perovskite,
meanwhile, is a young upstart that’s quickly risen through the ranks and
threatens to steal
the crown.
But the best
outcome seems to be when these two materials put aside their rivalry and team
up. Perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells are more efficient than either
material alone, thanks to their ability to harvest different parts of the solar
spectrum – perovskite taps into blue light better, while silicon focuses more
on red and infrared wavelengths.
The new HZB device
is made up of a top cell made of several thin layers of perovskite, and a
bottom cell that does the same with silicon. Having a series of layers allows
the different colors of light to filter down to the lower levels, and minimizes
electrical losses. The team also designed a new interface between the active
area and the electrodes, which helped boost the overall efficiency of the cell.
The end result is a
perovskite/silicon tandem solar cell that boasts an efficiency of 32.5%. This
new record, which has been independently verified, is currently the highest of
any emerging photovoltaic technology according to a chart kept and regularly updated by the National
Renewable Energy Lab (NREL). It's a decent step up from the previous
record-holder of 31.25%, achieved
just a few months ago, while a year before that it was just shy
of 30%. The team claims this latest
advance pushes the technology into an important new realm.
“At 32.5%, the solar cell
efficiency of the HZB tandems is now in ranges previously only achieved by
expensive III/V semiconductors,” said Professor Bernd Rech, scientific director
of HZB. “The NREL graph clearly shows how spectacular the last two increases
from EPFL and HZB really are.”
Source: Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin
Perovskite/silicon
tandem solar cell advance breaks efficiency record (newatlas.com)
When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a
duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.
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