Thursday, 29 December 2022

NASDAQ At New Low. Terrain, Terrain, Too Low!

Baltic Dry Index. 1515              Brent Crude 82.83

Spot Gold 1809            US 2 Year Yield 4.31 -0.01

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 29/12/22 World 663,380,366

Deaths 6,691,567

Woop Woop, Terrain Terrain, Pull Up Pull Up! Crash!!!

With just two trading days left in a dismal year for most stocks and all of cryptoland, does a stock market crash lie ahead in early 2023?

Hopefully not, but if rising doubts about crypto’s Binance exchange are even halfway correct, a crypto crash spill over into the larger G-7 economy lies ahead.

Next week, alleged FTX fraudster SBF gets to enter his plea to all the charges. Rollover time, but on whom?

Getting out early always beats getting carried out last, as does making a deal.

Asia-Pacific markets fall, taking lead from Wall Street’s losses

UPDATED THU, DEC 29 2022 12:38 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded lower, taking the lead from Wall Street’s losses overnight as investors looked to the year ahead.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 1.05% while the Topix shed 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.51% as the country’s retail sales for November fell 1.8%, the third consecutive month of declines, reversing gains seen in the third quarter. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia also fell 0.97%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.92% – despite further easing of Covid restrictions takes into effect today, with stocks related to re-opening being closely watched. The city will release its trade data later in the day.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.27% and the Shenzhen Component bucked the trend and traded 0.31% higher.

The U.S. government announced it will require airline passengers arriving from China, Hong Kong and Macau to show a negative Covid test starting Jan. 5 regardless of nationality of vaccination status.

Overnight on Wall Street, the major indexes closed lower as investors headed into the final trading days of the 2022, with Apple weighing heavily on the Dow as it broke a key level and fell to another 52-week low.

Asia-Pacific markets, Wall Street, industrial output, Hong Kong eases restrictions (cnbc.com)

U.S. stocks drop on recession fears, Nasdaq closes at new bear market low

Dec 28 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes ended weaker on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2022 closing low, as investors grappled with mixed economic data, rising COVID cases in China, and geopolitical tensions heading into 2023.

The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) ended at 10,213.288, the lowest since the bear market began in November 2021 after the index hit a record high. The last time the Nasdaq ended lower was in July 2020. Its previous closing low for 2022 was 10,321.388 on Oct. 14.

"There was no Santa rally this year. The Grinch showed up this December for investors," said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at AXS Investments in Port Chester, New York.

December is typically a strong month for equities, with a rally in the week after Christmas. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) has posted only 18 Decembers with losses since 1950, Truist Advisory Services data show.

---- All 11 of the S&P 500 (.SPX) sector indexes fell on Wednesday. Energy stocks (.SPNY) were the biggest losers, dipping over 2.2% as worries over demand in China weighed on oil prices.

Investors have been assessing China's move to reopen its COVID-battered economy as infections surged.

"With this current combination of rising cases with an opening up of China restrictions, we're seeing that investors are concerned that the ramifications are going to spread through many different industries and sectors as it did in the earlier COVID period," Bassuk said.

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is down 20% year-to-date, on track for its biggest annual loss since the financial crisis of 2008. The rout has been more severe for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), which closed at the lowest level since July 2020.

While recent data pointing to an easing in inflationary pressures has bolstered hopes of smaller interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a tight labor market and resilient American economy have spurred worries that rates could stay higher for longer.

Markets are now pricing in 69% odds of a 25-basis point rate hike at the U.S. central bank's February meeting and see rates peaking at 4.94% in the first half of next year. .

Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) gained 3.3% in choppy trade, a day after hitting the lowest level in more than two years. The stock is down nearly 69% for the year.

Southwest Airlines Co (LUV.N) dropped 5.2% a day after the carrier came under fire from the U.S. government for canceling thousands of flights.

Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) fell between 1.5% and 3.1% as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recovered from a brief fall to rise for a third straight session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 365.85 points, or 1.1%, to 32,875.71; the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 46.03 points, or 1.20%, at 3,783.22; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 139.94 points, or 1.35%, to 10,213.29.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 3.77-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.97-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

More

U.S. stocks drop on recession fears, Nasdaq closes at new bear market low | Reuters

S&P 500 futures rise slightly as Wall Street heads into the final trading days of 2022

UPDATED WED, DEC 28 2022 11:05 PM EST

S&P 500 futures rose slightly on Wednesday night, as investors head into the final trading days of 2022.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 29 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.14% and 0.23%, respectively.

The action follows a broad sell-off during the regular session Wednesday as recession fears weighed on investor sentiment in a losing week, month and year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 365.85 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.35%.

The major averages are headed toward their worst year since 2008. The Dow has lost 9.5%, while the S&P 500 shed 20.6%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is the worst performer, down 34.7% as investors dumped growth stocks.

“Investors are anticipating an economic recession to materialize early in 2023, as evidenced by the three quarters of projected S&P 500 earnings declines and continued defensive sector leanings,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, wrote in a Wednesday note. “The severity of the recession remains in question. We expect it to be mild.”

On Thursday, traders are expecting the latest data on weekly jobless claims before the bell. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are forecasting initial jobless claims to total 223,000 for the week ended Dec. 24, a rise from 216,000 during the previous period.

S&P 500 futures rise slightly in the final trading days of 2022 (cnbc.com)

In cryptoland news, more trouble at FTX. New doubts about Binance.

FTX diverted $200 million of customer money for two venture deals that caught the SEC’s attention

PUBLISHED WED, DEC 28 2022 5:34 PM EST

Of the billions of dollars in customer deposits that disappeared from FTX in a flash, $200 million was used to fund investments in two companies, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which charged founder Sam Bankman-Fried with “orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors.”

Through its FTX Ventures unit, the crypto firm in March invested $100 million in Dave, a fintech company that had gone public two months earlier through a special purpose acquisition company. At the time, the companies said they would “work together to expand the digital assets ecosystem.”

The other deal the SEC appears to have referenced was a $100 million investment round in September for Mysten Labs, a Web3 company. In total, it was a $300 million funding round that valued Mysten at $2 billion and included participation from Coinbase Ventures, Binance Labs and Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto fund.

While FTX Ventures has done dozens of transactions, according to PitchBook, the Mysten Labs and Dave investments were the only two disclosed investments of $100 million, based on documents published by the Financial Times, which broke down how the company put $5.2 billion to work. FTX Ventures was described as a $2 billion venture fund, in its press release with Dave.

Bankman-Fried, 30, stands accused of committing widespread fraud after FTX, which was valued by private investors at $32 billion earlier this year, sank into bankruptcy in November. A central theme in the charges is how Bankman-Fried diverted funds from FTX to his hedge fund, Alameda Research, which then used that money for risky trades and loans. FTX Ventures was allegedly part of that scheme.

Neither Mysten nor Dave have been linked to any alleged wrongdoing within Bankman-Fried’s empire. But the investments appear to be the first identified examples of customer money being used by FTX and Bankman-Fried for venture funding. As investigators and FTX lawyers attempt to retrace the outflow of FTX funds, these identified investments and others in the $5 billion venture pool will attract heavy scrutiny.

In explicitly linking the two $100 million investments to customer money, the SEC has raised the possibility that they’ll be prospects for clawbacks. 

More

FTX used $200 million of customer funds for two venture investments (cnbc.com)


Binance May Be Next Crypto COLLAPSE as Withdraws Increase & US DOJ Considers Money Laundering Charge

Binance May Be Next Crypto COLLAPSE as Withdraws Increase & US DOJ Considers Money Laundering Charge - YouTube

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation, recession and earnings among factors to drive U.S. stocks in 2023

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stock investors could not be more eager to turn the page on 2022, a brutal year dominated by market-punishing Federal Reserve rate hikes designed to tamp down the steepest inflation in 40 years.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down nearly 20% year-to-date with only a few trading days left in 2022, on pace for its biggest calendar-year drop since 2008. The carnage has been even more severe for the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), which had tumbled by nearly 34% so far for the year.

High-profile casualties include the once-soaring shares of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), which have slumped around 50% this year, while those of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) are down some 70% and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) shares have lost about 65%. Meanwhile, energy stocks (.SPNY) have bucked the trend by posting eye-popping gains.

Inflation, and the Fed's degree of aggressiveness in trying to contain it, will likely remain a critical factor driving equity performance as 2023 gets under way. But investors will also be watching for fallout from higher interest rates, including how tighter monetary policy ripples through the economy and whether it makes other assets more competitive with stocks.

Here is a look at some of the big themes for the U.S. stock market in 2023.

RECESSION OR SOFT LANDING?

Perhaps the biggest question that will sway stocks as the new year begins is whether the economy is headed for a recession, as many investors are expecting.

If a recession starts next year, stocks could be set for another slide: A bear market has never bottomed before the beginning of a recession, historic data showed.

Recessions tend to hit stocks hard, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Those declines, however, have usually been followed by a strong rebound.

More

Inflation, recession and earnings among factors to drive U.S. stocks in 2023 | Reuters

 

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Kulldorff ‘Not Surprised’ About Being Censored by Twitter, Says Trust in Science Has Been Undermined

Epidemiologist Martin Kulldorff reacts to being censored by Twitter following the latest 'Twitter Files' revelations

By Mimi Nguyen Ly and Jan Jekielek  December 27, 2022 Updated: December 28, 2022

Martin Kulldorff, a prominent epidemiologist, biostatistician, and former Harvard School of Medicine professor, said he was “not surprised” after seeing concrete evidence that a post he shared on Twitter was flagged and prevented from wider dissemination.

He expressed disapproval and said that the social media giant’s overall censorship actions have stifled free debate on COVID-19 topics and undermined trust in science.

In the latest installment of the Elon Musk-endorsed “Twitter Files” published early on Dec. 26, journalist David Zweig shared how posts from Kulldorff and several others about COVID-19, including about vaccines, were flagged and censored in various ways by Twitter.

It marked the first trove of direct evidence from the “Twitter Files” showing how Twitter censored scientists, potentially at the behest of the U.S. government, ever since journalist Bari Weiss revealed in early December that Stanford University professor Dr. Jay Bhattacharya had been put on a blacklist due to his views on COVID-19-related lockdowns and school closures.

While Kulldorff said he was not surprised by evidence showing how he and others were censored, he said Twitter should not be the arbiter of which scientists have valid views, and that such censorship shouldn’t happen.

“There should be an open discussion. You can’t expect people to trust public health and trust the scientific community if you don’t have that open communication and open debate,” Kulldorff told The Epoch Times.

In the Twitter post of concern, dated March 26, 2021, Kulldorff said that children and those who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 do not need to be vaccinated, but that vaccines were important for older high-risk people and their caretakers. The post was flagged by a Twitter moderator as having violated the company’s COVID-19 “misinformation policy.”

An internal email shared by Zweig showed that the moderator claimed Kulldorff had shared “false information regarding the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines, which goes against CDC guidelines.” Twitter subsequently labeled the post as “misleading” and turned off all likes and replies.

“But Kulldorff’s statement was an expert’s opinion—one which also happened to be in line with vaccine policies in numerous other countries. Yet it was deemed ‘false information’ by Twitter moderators merely because it differed from CDC guidelines,” Zweig wrote. “After Twitter took action, Kulldorff’s tweet was slapped with a ‘Misleading’ label and all replies and likes were shut off, throttling the tweet’s ability to be seen and shared by many people, the ostensible core function of the platform.”

Kulldorff reiterated his views on COVID-19 vaccination in children, telling The Epoch Times late Monday: “We know and we’ve known ever since the very beginning of the pandemic, and the data from Wuhan, that children are at minuscule risk … from dying from COVID-19.”

“So the benefit of the vaccine, therefore, is almost nothing, because it doesn’t prevent [transmission]. [And] the risk of death and hospitalization [with children] is very low. The benefit is very, very small. We know that,” he added.

“So then the question is, what are the potential harms? And we know there are potential harms, with myocarditis, for example. I think the benefit is so tiny it’s not worth taking the risks of adverse reactions, which we know there is myocarditis, but we don’t know the full extent of adverse reactions yet.”

More

Kulldorff ‘Not Surprised’ About Being Censored by Twitter, Says Trust in Science Has Been Undermined (theepochtimes.com)

Pfizer’s Shots Aren’t Safe and Were Never Shown to Be

Dec 27 2022

mRNA spike protein wasn’t the only thing autopsies found in people who died shortly after getting the jab. Combined with insurance datasets showing the increase in deaths had a 1 in 390,632,286,180 chance of occurring spontaneously, this is a dagger through the heart for Pfizer and their crew.

STORY AT-A-GLANCE

·         Dr. Kathryn Edwards, a member of Pfizer’s data safety monitoring board (DSMB), was previously a paid adviser to Pfizer. DSMBs are supposed to be independent, and aren’t if members have previous relationships with the company

·         German autopsies found “highly unusual tissue inflammation” in people who died shortly after getting the jab, and investigators suspect the inflammation observed would be fatal. They also found spike protein in the tissues of the deceased, but not another key part of SARS-CoV-2. This suggests the actual virus was not part of the problem; the only possible source of the spike protein was the jab

·         Data from the German health insurance provider BKK, which covers about 10.9 million Germans, show 2.05% of COVID jab recipients sought medical care after their jab

·         The largest German statutory health insurance dataset, which encompasses 72 million Germans, show massive increases in sudden and unexpected deaths after the COVID jabs rolled out

·         December 13, 2022, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis petitioned the Florida Supreme Court for a statewide grand jury investigation of crimes and wrongdoing committed against Floridians related to the COVID-19 jabs. He also established an independent Public Health Integrity Committee to analyze and assess federal health guidance before they’re implemented in Florida

Contrary to the official narrative (and hence popular belief), the COVID shots have no demonstrated safety. In Episode 298 of The Highwire, Del Bigtree interviews attorney Aaron Siri about the various lawsuits his firm has brought to reverse COVID jab mandates.

More

Pfizer’s Shots Aren’t Safe and Were Never Shown to Be (theepochtimes.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, someone tell Elon Musk there’s a real technology company for sale and it doesn’t cost 44 billion for a bunch of FBI twits. It might eventually make something useful too.

Redcar's Applied Graphene Materials receives buyer interest amid funding challenges

28 December 2022

A decision on the future of Applied Graphene Materials could be made in the coming weeks, a new update from the company suggests.

The Redcar-based graphene dispersion specialist told the London Stock Exchange it had received takeover proposals from "interested parties" and now hopes to receive final offers so a decision can be made by the firm's board in early January. It comes as 12-year-old Applied Graphene has faced funding challenges and had started redundancy consultations with staff as a precaution in case a strategic review led by consultants did not find a way to plug the finance gap.

The firm, which employs about 30 people, has previously said it has enough cash to continue trading until the end of January, and in this latest update to investors it said some of the offers on the table would require interim financing. Applied Graphene's share price fell sharply in November when it announced it was in a race to find funding, and it rallied slightly on news of a possible future deal.

Earlier in 2022 Applied Graphene reported increased operating losses of £1.9m although overall revenue increased from £42,000 to £46,000. Covid had impacted its key market as customers' focus shifted away from research and development and supply chain issues had also caused a "severe impact". At the time, the firm said that, despite the challenges, more potential customers were becoming interested in graphene's uses and that it had leased further space at its Wilton base to accommodate anticipated increased demand.

Graphene is the thinnest and lightest material known to science and has good strength and conductivity qualities. The firm is built around technology first developed at Durham University and specialises in creating dispersions - suspensions of graphene nanoplatelets in the likes of coatings, paints and lubricants.

In an update to the London Stock Exchange, the company said: "Current discussions with interested parties may be altered or terminated at any time and, accordingly, there can be no certainty that any final proposals will be made, nor as to the terms on which any such final proposals may be made. The board previously notified that the company has sufficient working capital to continue in operation until January 31, 2023.

"The board continues to take action to seek to protect the financial position of the company, its shareholders and creditors in the event that the strategic review does not achieve a satisfactory conclusion. In parallel with the strategic review, the process of statutory redundancy consultations with the group's employees announced on November 23, 2022 is therefore ongoing."

Redcar's Applied Graphene Materials receives buyer interest amid funding challenges (msn.com)

"Indeed the temporary breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February and March of 1929 it seemed that the end had come. On various of these occasions the [New York] Times happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again. Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was coming when the optimists would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance were similarly, if less permanently discredited.”

J. K. Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.


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