Baltic Dry Index. 1560 +32 Brent Crude 79.04
Spot Gold 1793 U S 2 Year Yield 4.17 -0.06
“I
think we agree, the past is over.”
President George W. Bush.
While
it’s not looking good for the crypto fraudsters, it’s not looking good in the
global stock casinos either. A harsh reality is back.
Global
trade seems to be heading into the next recession although the UK and rump-EU
may already be far into the next recession.
In
cryptoland, is anything on offer honest? Even if something in cryptoland was
real and hionest, who is going to buy it as a new global recession gets
underway?
Dow closes more than 200 points lower, falls for a
second straight week as recession fears grow
UPDATED FRI, DEC 16 2022 10:34 PM EST
Stocks dropped
Friday, building on their year-end sell-off, as fears grow over a recession
taking place as the Federal Reserve continues raising rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 281.76
points, or 0.85%, to 32,920.46. The S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 3,852.36.
Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.97% to 10,705.41.
The indexes notched a second consecutive week of
losses. The S&P 500 fell 2.08% for the week, and putting its December
losses at 5.58%, as hopes for a year-end rally fizzle. The Dow and Nasdaq slid
1.7% and 2.7%, respectively.
Trading was especially volatile Friday with a
large amount of options expiring. There were $2.6 trillion worth of index
options expiring, the highest amount “relative to the size of the equity market
in nearly two years,” according to Goldman Sachs. At session lows, the Dow was
down as much as 547.63 points, before paring back some of those losses.
The
sell-off was broad-based, with three stocks falling for every
advancer at the New York Stock Exchange. At one point, there were only 10
S&P 500 names in positive territory. The real
estate and consumer discretionary sectors were the biggest laggards,
down nearly 3% and 1.7%, respectively.
Stocks fell this week in the wake
of the Fed’s
50 basis point interest rate hike on Wednesday — the highest
rate in 15 years. The central bank said it would continue hiking rates through
2023 to 5.1%, a larger figure than previously expected.
Following the policy update, the Dow dropped 142 points on Wednesday, plunged 764 points Thursday, and declined further on Friday.
More
Dow
closes more than 200 points lower, falls for second straight week (cnbc.com)
FTSE 100 posts worst week in two months on recession fears
December
16 2022
(Reuters) -Britain's blue-chip index posted its
biggest weekly loss in over two months on Friday as weak domestic retail sales
data and hawkish rhetoric from major central banks fuelled recession worries.
The FTSE 100 fell 1.3% to a one-month closing low, pulled
lower by oil and gas and healthcare sectors.
Global stocks extended losses after the U.S.
Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised
interest rates by 50 basis points earlier this week and signalled there were
more rate hikes on the horizon despite signs of slowing economic growth.
Data on Friday showed British retail sales slid
unexpectedly in November, while another set suggested the downturn across most
businesses eased slightly in December, but economic activity remained below the
50 threshold denoting growth.
"The flash PMIs are
consistent with our view that the UK economy is probably in a recession,
although a relatively shallow one at the moment," said Ashley Webb, UK
economist at Capital Economics.
"While the price indices suggest that
inflation continues to ease, they still remain high by past standards."
UK's midcap FTSE 250 shed 1.6% to touch five-week
low and is down over 20% so far this year. Thee exporter-heavy FTSE 100,
however, is down less than a percent, supported by stronger commodity prices
and a weaker sterling.
"When you look at the UK markets this year, it
has been very resilient, thanks to heavy commodities and defense stocks,"
said Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at Societe Generale.
"Looking into 2023, first part of the year
would be very challenging for UK equities because of central banks, inflation
and challenging news from Chinese reopening. From Q2,central banks could pause,
which would be a support for equities."
More
FTSE
100 posts worst week in two months on recession fears (msn.com)
Finally,
in cryptoland, what’s spooked accountants Mazars?
Mazars Group suspends all work with crypto clients
including Binance, Crypto.com
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 16 20228:11 AM EST
Accounting firm Mazars Group has suspended all
work with its crypto clients, according to its former client and the world’s
largest crypto exchange, Binance. The decision to cut ties with Binance, KuCoin
and Crypto.com comes
just after the global accounting firm released “proof of reserve” reports for
several digital asset exchanges.
A spokesperson from Binance told CNBC in a
statement that, “Mazars has indicated that they will temporarily pause their
work with all of their crypto clients globally, which include Crypto.com, KuCoin, and Binance.”
“Unfortunately, this means that we will not be
able to work with Mazars for the moment,” Binance said.
Both bitcoin and Binance’s BNB token took a dip on the news, with
bitcoin initially dropping nearly 3% and Binance’s native token falling nearly
5.5%.
On Dec. 9, Crypto.com published a proof of reserves audited by Mazars, attesting that customer assets were held on a
one-to-one basis, meaning that all deposits were 100% backed by Crypto.com’s
reserves. A spokesperson for the exchange reiterated that the firm had
“successfully” completed its recent proof of reserves in collaboration with
Mazars and that the accounting company had “provided independent verification
of our secure on-chain digital assets matching our customer balances 1:1.”
Crypto.com added that customers can verify their balance using
its site. A spokesperson said the company will “continue to engage with
reputable audit firms in 2023 and beyond” as they “seek to increase
transparency across the entire industry.”
KuCoin said its proof of reserve report was
already delivered by Mazars. “In the future, we are open to work with any leading and reputable
audit to provide the third-party verification report,” a KuoCoin spokesperson
said.
Mazars suspends all work with crypto clients including
Binance, Crypto.com (cnbc.com)
Treasury’s financial stability watchdog says fraud is
rampant in crypto markets
The crypto currency market is rife with fraud,
failures to comply with existing laws and big swings in volatility, but the
recent implosion of digital currency exchange FTX hasn’t hampered the broader
financial system, according to a report released Friday by Treasury’s Financial
Stability Oversight Committee.
“FTX
is a shock to that market,” a Treasury official said, adding
that the bankruptcy underscores the committee’s concern about crypto
highlighted in a report it released in October.
The committee, which was created
after the financial crisis to identify looming risks to the financial system,
reiterated its call for Congress to pass legislation that allows U.S.
regulators to police spot markets for crypto assets that aren’t securities.
The council also said lawmakers need to address
regulatory arbitrage, when companies take advantage of more favorable or
lighter regulation in multiple jurisdictions to circumvent tighter oversight in
the U.S.
The group uses data from the Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau, the Federal Trade Commission and the Securities and Exchange
Commission, among other agencies, to spotlight fraud in crypto. Of 8,300 crypto
complaints received by the CFPB’s Consumer Complaint Database between October
2018 and September 2022, 40% appeared to be a “fraud or scam.”
Over 46,000 people lost more than $1 billion on
crypto trading to scams and fraud between Jan. 1, 2021 through March 31,
according to the FTC.
Since fiscal year 2019, the SEC has received over
23,000 tips, complaints and referrals involving the crypto markets.
But while FTX’s failure “precipitated price
decreases in Bitcoin and other crypto-assets,” there has been “limited impact
on the broader U.S. financial system” due to the current regulatory framework,
according to the report.
The committee warned that this could rapidly change
if participants in the crypto and traditional financial systems continue to
devise ways to overlap, therefore increasing the urgency for more regulatory
oversight.
More
Binance’s native BNB token plunges to lowest since July
as concerns mount about withdrawals, FTX ties
Over a month after the collapse of FTX,
investor concern over crypto exchange Binance
isn’t fading.
Binance’s native
token, BNB, has fallen 15% in the past week, including a drop of over 6% in the
past 24 hours. BNB, first minted in 2017, is the
world’s fifth most valuable cryptocurrency, with a market cap of about $39
billion, according to CoinMarketCap. It’s behind only bitcoin, ethereum,
tether and USD Coin.
The latest issue looming over
Binance is FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings. Binance was the first outside investor
in FTX. In exiting its equity position in the company last year, Binance
received payment equal to roughly $2.1 billion.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao
dismissed concerns that his company could have that money clawed back as FTX
winds its way through bankruptcy court and trustees look to retrieve any fraudulent conveyances made by FTX to outside businesses or investors.
“We are financially OK,” Zhao said, after he was
asked by CNBC’s Becky Quick if the company could handle a $2.1 billion demand.
Crypto investors have become skeptical of comments
from top executives about the financial health of their companies. FTX founder
and ex-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried said on Twitter that his company’s assets were
fine, even as executives knew it was in the midst of a liquidity crunch that
eventually forced the exchange into bankruptcy.
More
Binance's
native BNB token plunges to lowest since July (cnbc.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Christine Lagarde’s hawkishness
reflects Europe’s stickier inflation problem
ECB president admits eurozone
price pressures may rise again in early 2023
December
15, 2022
Christine
Lagarde used to claim that the Federal Reserve had a bigger inflation problem
than the European Central Bank. Now the ECB chief admits the eurozone may be in
a bigger mess.
The
risk of inflation staying uncomfortably far above the 2 per cent level targeted
by both central banks was now greater in Europe than on the other side of the
Atlantic, Lagarde acknowledged after the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates
by half a percentage point to 2 per cent on Thursday.
US
inflation is now falling following a series of aggressive rate rises by the Fed
which have put borrowing costs within a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
However the ECB, which began raising rates later than its US counterpart, could
be faced with a further bout of inflation. Lagarde said there were “reasons to
believe” price pressures in Europe would surge in early 2023.
The
implication for monetary policy is that interest rates in Europe have much
further to climb than in the US.
While
the ECB slowed the pace of rate rises from a three-quarter point increase at
its last meeting, in line with the Fed and Bank of England this week, Lagarde
stressed that investors should not see this as a sign it was about to stop.
The
ECB president said it was “tempting to assume that all central banks are doing
the same thing all the time”. But Lagarde added: “If you compare us to the Fed,
we have more ground to cover, we have longer to go.” She warned of a further
half-point rate rise at the ECB’s next meeting in February and “possibly the
one after that and possibly thereafter”
Dashing
hopes that the ECB could stop its rate rises soon, she said: “We are not
slowing down. We are in for the long game.”
US
consumer price inflation fell back to 7.1 per cent in November, but in the
eurozone the equivalent figure remains in double digits at 10 per cent — albeit
slightly lower than the 10.6 per cent reading for October.
But Lagarde’s hawkishness is less about the
headline number and more about the different nature of inflation in two of the
world’s most powerful economies.
US inflation has been driven more by an overheating economy, tight labour
market and sharply rising wages. In contrast, inflation in the single currency
bloc has been mainly driven by soaring energy and food costs, stemming from the
fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Early this year, several ECB officials
including Lagarde said this meant the Fed had to act more aggressively to
restrict domestic demand than they did because rate rises would do little to
increase the supply of energy or food.
But
the ECB president seems to now fear that, as high energy prices feed through to
people’s utility bills and push up prices of other goods and services,
inflation could prove stickier in Europe than in the US.
Core
inflation — which excludes changes in the cost of energy and food, and seen as
a better measure of underlying price pressures — is also falling in the US,
unlike in the eurozone where it stayed flat at 5 per cent in November.
More
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Hospital
admissions for flu overtake those for COVID-19 for first time since pandemic
began
Flu
admissions are running at a higher rate than in any week during the past four
winters - something that will worry health workers, who are already under
pressure.
Friday 16 December 2022
05:26, UK
Hospital admissions for flu in England have
overtaken admissions for COVID-19 for the first time since the coronavirus
pandemic began.
Figures from the UK Health Security Agency show
that the rate of flu admissions was 6.8 per 100,000 people in the week to 11
December, compared to 6.6 per 100,000 for COVID-19.
This also means that flu admissions are running at
a higher rate than in any week during the past four winters - something that
will worry health workers, who are already under pressure.
Dr Conall Watson, UKHSA consultant epidemiologist,
said: "Flu is now circulating widely and we have seen a sharp rise in the
rate of hospitalisations for flu this week, particularly among the under-fives
and over-85s.
"Admissions are now at the highest point since
the 2017/18 season and we are expecting case numbers to continue increasing as
we move further into winter.
"The flu vaccine offers the best protection
against severe illness and it's not too late for everyone eligible to get it.
"Uptake is particularly low in those aged two
and three, so if your child is eligible please take up the offer."
The admission levels for flu and COVID-19 are both rising but
the rate of flu admissions has risen more sharply - nearly doubling from 3.9
per 100,000.
Admissions are highest among those aged 85 and over
(23.1 per 100,000 people - up week-on-week from 10.7).
There has also been a rise in the rate among
children aged four and under - from 8.4 to 20.7.
All children aged two and three are eligible for a
flu nasal spray vaccine at their GP surgery but only 37.4% of two-year-olds and
39.5% of three-year-olds have taken up the offer.
Some 33 million people in England can get a free
flu jab this year, including those aged 50 and over, primary school-aged
children, and some secondary school-aged children.
More
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Green
Graphene: Recycling Spent Lithium-Ion Batteries to Recover Valuable Metal
Resources
Dec 16 2022
Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are ubiquitous in
today’s world. They are scattered around our homes, powering numerous domestic
appliances and devices; they power our smartphones and wearables. Li-ion
batteries have also helped drive the battery revolution in electric vehicle
(EV) technology.
However,
when they come to the end of their service life or fail, there is the major
issue of waste. Recycling Li-ion batteries is one option, but most existing
processes require chemical extraction processes and expert technicians and can
pose an environmental risk during processing.
This
also leads to increased costs and time when it comes to relying on existing
methods. However, a team of researchers at Rice University has developed a rapid green recycling
method that is able to make key battery components available for reuse.
Working
from the Rice lab of Professor of Chemistry, Materials Science, and Nanotechnology,
James Tour believes that they have a solution that leverages a
novel “flash” Joule heating process they developed, which produces
graphene from waste.
Lithium-Anode Revival
In a
paper published in the journal Advanced Materials, the team explains how they
recalibrated the flash joule process to revive
graphite anode materials found in Li-ion batteries and eliminate
impurities so that they can be reused over and over.
The
team hopes their green flash joule process could address the challenges faced
when it comes to recycling Li-ion batteries. Li-ion batteries cannot be handled
like traditional electronic waste, as lithium is a highly reactive element.
More
Green Graphene:
Recycling Spent Lithium-Ion Batteries (azocleantech.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. Locatelli
torments a violin as only Locatelli can.
Approx. 8 minutes.
Locatelli,
Violin Concerto No.1 in D major, 3rd mov〈The Art of Violin〉Op.3 (Giuliano
Carmignola)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Hikaru
Was Helpless Here
Hikaru Was Helpless Here - YouTube
This
weekend’s maths update. A big number in 5 minutes.
TREE(3)-
the number that no human can comprehend. Could TREE(3) be what actual infinity
is?
"War is Peace" "Freedom is Slavery"
"Ignorance is Strength."
George Orwell. 1984.
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