Saturday, 31 December 2022

Special Update 31/12/2022 2023 Up Or Down? mRNA

 Baltic Dry Index. 1515          Brent Crude 85.91

Spot Gold 1824       U S 2 Year Yield 4.41 +0.07

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 31/12/22 World 664,580,954

Deaths 6,696,247

An optimist stays up until midnight to see the new year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.

Good riddance to 2022, bring on 2023. With mainstream media happily covering 2022s few high points and numerous low points, I wont be adding to flogging a dead horse.

Sufficient to say, 2023 looks challenging, at least through mid-year. After that, depending on hopefully by then abating food price inflation, we should have reached the end of global central  bank interest rate hikes. Not that hiking interest rates has any relevance to ending food price inflation.

As to energy price inflation, that depends on what happens to global demand as China’s economy picks up in February after the Lunar New Year, plus what happens to demand as the US, UK and EU economies fall into recession v what happens to Russian oil production after Russia’s new retaliatory sanctions start on February 1st.

All in all, a difficult start to H1 2023 looks all too likely.

Finally, a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous 2023 to one and all.

After 2022, hopefully our inflationist central banksters and bent politicians have finally learnt the lessons of inflationary money printing.

Stocks fall to end Wall Street’s worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20%

UPDATED FRI, DEC 30 2022 5:23 PM EST

Stocks slipped on Friday to end a brutal 2022 with a whimper, as Wall Street wrapped up its worst year since 2008 on a sour note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 73.55 points, or 0.22%, to close at 33,147.25. The S&P 500 shed 0.25% to end at 3,839.50. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.11% to 10,466.88.

Friday marked the final day of trading in what has been a painful year for stocks. All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three-year win streak. The Dow fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, and is more than 20% below its record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1%.

Sticky inflation and aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve battered growth and technology stocks and weighed on investor sentiment throughout the year. Geopolitical concerns and volatile economic data also kept markets on edge.

---- As the calendar turns to a new year, some investors think the pain is far from over. They expect the bear market to persist until a recession hits or the Fed pivots. Some also project stocks will hit new lows before rebounding in the second half of 2023.

---- Despite the yearly losses, the Dow and S&P 500 did break three-quarter losing streaks in the final three months of the year. The Nasdaq, however, dominated by the likes of Apple, Tesla and Microsoft, muddled through its fourth consecutive negative quarter for the first time since 2001. All three averages are negative for December, however.

Stocks fall to end Wall Street's worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20% (cnbc.com)

European stocks log worst year since 2018 as rate hikes, Ukraine war rattle markets

LONDON — European markets wrapped up their worst year since 2018 as Russia’s war in Ukraine, high inflation and tightening monetary policy hammered risk assets around the world.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the last trading day of 2022 down 1.3% — but it was lower by 12.76% since the turn of the year — its worst performance since a 13.24% annual decline in 2018. The European blue-chip index enjoyed a bumper 2021, jumping 22.25% on the year.

On Friday, the French CAC 40 closed down 1.5% and the German DAX was lower by 1.1% — with the two bourses logging annual losses of 9.5% and 12.5%, respectively.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100, which was open for a half day Friday, closed lower by 0.8% and clocked a yearly gain of 1.2%. The more domestic-focused FTSE 250 lost 19.5% in 2022, its biggest annual loss since 2008.

Economies around the world began the year still trying to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, with persistent lockdowns in China and other lingering supply bottlenecks forming what was now infamously mischaracterized by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2021 as “transitory” inflationary pressure.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February, and subsequent weaponization of its food and energy exports in the face of sweeping sanctions by Western powers, sent food and energy prices skyrocketing and compounded this pressure, helping to send inflation to multi-decade highs across many major economies.

The cost-of-living crisis arising from soaring energy bills for businesses and consumers eventually began to weigh on activity, while the Fed and other major central banks were forced to tighten monetary policy with aggressive hikes to interest rates in order to rein in inflation.

More

European stocks log worst year since 2018 as rate hikes, Ukraine war rattle markets (cnbc.com)

After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023

Fri, December 30, 2022 at 5:00 AM GMT

(Bloomberg) -- More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong. Reeling from a record $18 trillion wipeout, global stocks must surmount all these hurdles and more if they are to escape a second straight year in the red.

With a drop of more than 20% in 2022, the MSCI All-Country World Index is on track for its worst performance since the 2008 crisis, as jumbo interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve more than doubled 10-year Treasury yields — the rate underpinning global capital costs.

Bulls looking ahead at 2023 might take solace in the fact that two consecutive down years are rare for major equity markets — the S&P 500 index has fallen for two straight years on just four occasions since 1928. The scary thing though, is that when they do occur, drops in the second year tend to be deeper than in the first.

Here are some factors that could determine how 2023 shapes up for global equity markets:

More

After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023 (yahoo.com)

In better crypto fraud news, FTX Japan says it will start returning customer assets in February. But scroll down to this edition’s last YouTube section.

FTX Japan to return assets to clients from February

TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Japanese unit of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX said on Friday it would return its customer assets from February.

FTX Japan is developing a system with which customers can withdraw assets via the website of Liquid Japan, a crypto exchange it bought in February this year.

"We deeply apologise for the big trouble caused by the prolonged suspension of services for the withdrawal of legal currency as well as crypto assets," FTX Japan said in a statement.

FTX filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection in November and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned as chief executive, after the biggest blowup in the crypto industry drew calls for tighter regulation.

FTX Japan to return assets to clients from February | Reuters

Why did the man stand on one leg at midnight on New Year’s? He wanted to start the year on the right foot.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.     

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

China December manufacturing contracts at sharpest pace in almost 3 years

China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.

The drop was the biggest since the early days of the pandemic in February 2020.

The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world’s strictest Covid restrictions in early December. Cumulative infections likely reached 18.6 million in December, UK-based health data firm Airfinity estimated.

Analysts said surging infections could cause temporary labour shortages and increased supply chain disruptions. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Tesla plans to run a reduced production schedule at its Shanghai plant in January, extending the reduced output it began this month into next year.

Weakening external demand on the back of growing global recession fears amid rising interest rates, inflation and the war in Ukraine may further slow China’s exports, hurting its massive manufacturing sector and hampering an economic recovery.

More

China manufacturing contracts sharply as Covid infections soar (cnbc.com)

2023 set to be 'year of recession', expert says

The cost of living crisis wrought havoc in 2022, but 2023 is not expected to be much better

UPDATED 09:14, 30 DEC 2022

The nation headed into 2022 with optimism for the economy, but hopes of a bumper year of growth unrestrained by Covid restrictions were dashed as the cost-of-living crisis took centre stage. But if we were hoping 2023 would be better, unfortunately experts are predicting it will be the "year of recession".

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said GDP is likely to fall by 1.5% year-on-year in 2023, with no sign of a recovery until early 2024. With rates ending 2022 at 3.5% – a 14-year high – this will further hold back consumer spending, hitting some four million mortgage borrowers who are due to refinance next year, according to the Bank of England.

But the expected recession will also help rein in inflation, which will allow the Bank to take its foot off the pedal. Mr Tombs said: “We expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate to 4% in February, but then to stand pat in March.

“Eventually, the MPC [Monetary Policy Committee] will cut Bank Rate again… but we think the Monetary Policy Committee will wait until early 2024 to begin to reduce Bank Rate, and only then by 50 basis points to 3.5% by the end of the year.”

Martin Beck at the EY Item Club is slightly more optimistic, as he believes households still have some savings built up during Covid that they can dip into. “Consumer spending is therefore unlikely to fall to the same extent as real incomes. And falling inflation over the course of next year offers hope of a return to growth later in 2023,” he said.

2022 has been a rough year for many, with the majority of households badly affected by the cost of living crisis. Just as the worst of the pandemic seemed to be behind us as we headed into 2022, the emergence of soaring inflation soon became the next big threat to the economy and one which is set to send the UK plunging back into recession.

While Bank of England policymakers had forecast inflation to jump higher as supply chains struggled to keep up with surging demand, they were not prepared for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and the economic onslaught that followed as a result. As the UK joined its international neighbours in shunning Russian gas and oil, energy prices were quickly sent rocketing higher, pushing inflation to levels not seen for more than 40 years.

Having started the year at 5.5%, Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation had jumped to 7% by March already before hitting double digits in July. Its ascent did not stop there. Amid forecasts that annual household energy bills could hit nearly £3,500 this year, experts predicted that inflation could reach 13.3% by October.

More

2023 set to be 'year of recession', expert says - Business Live (business-live.co.uk)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Why is this mRNA scandal happening?

Reanalysis of mRNA trial data

Reanalysis of mRNA trial data - YouTube


Long COVID: 4 Contributors and the Possible Root Cause

Dec 29 2022

It has been more than two years since long COVID manifested, and scientists are still far from settled on its cause.

However, based on common clinical manifestations and emerging research, clinicians have identified several contributors to long COVID symptoms.

 

Spike Protein Appears to Be the Leading Contributor

Spike protein can exist in the immune cells of long COVID patients for up to 15 months after infection.

 

The spike protein sits on the surface of the COVID-19 virus and is the key to breaking into cells and causing the virus to spread in organs and tissue.

 

An increasing number of studies are pointing to it (1, 2) as a contributing factor to long COVID.

Studies in mice and human cell cultures revealed that the spike protein could travel into the brain by bypassing the blood-brain barrier.

Autopsy reports on people who died from COVID-19 have found spike protein in the brain, heart, pancreas, liver, kidney, thyroid, reproductive organs, adrenal glands, lungs, nasal and oral cavities, blood, fat, bone, muscle, skin, and even the eyes.

However, the symptoms and laboratory test results vary depending on the patient. Clinicians have therefore developed various hypotheses on the reasons behind these symptoms.

More

Long COVID: 4 Contributors and the Possible Root Cause (theepochtimes.com)

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

High-efficiency water filter removes 99.9% of microplastics in 10 seconds

Michael Irving  December 29, 2022

Microplastics are a growing environmental problem, but now researchers in Korea have developed a new water purification system that can filter out these tiny fragments, as well as other pollutants, very quickly and with high efficiency.

Given the ubiquity of plastic in the modern world, it’s not surprising that tiny flakes of the stuff can be found basically everywhere on Earth, even in environments thought to be pristine. Microplastics have been detected from pole to pole, from the deepest ocean trenches to the tallest mountain peaks, and are making their way up the food chain all the way to humans.

Various materials are being tested to help filter out microplastics, including magnetic "nanopillars," nanocellulosesemiconductor wires, and filtration columns containing sand, gravel and biofilms. Now, researchers at Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST) in South Korea have found promise with a new design.

The key is a material known as a covalent triazene framework (CTF). This is a highly porous material with a large surface area, meaning they have plenty of room inside to store molecules they capture. Similar materials have recently been demonstrated to be effective at removing organic dyes from industrial wastewater.

The team carefully designed the molecules in the CTF to be more water-attracting, and exposed the material to mild oxidation. The resulting filter was shown to be effective at very quickly removing microplastics from water – reportedly over 99.9% of the pollutants were removed within 10 seconds. The material can also be reused multiple times without reducing its performance.

More

High-efficiency water filter removes 99.9% of microplastics in 10 seconds (newatlas.com)

This weekend’s music diversion.. Approx. 9 minutes.

G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in F major Op. 4/5 HWV 293, La Divina Armonia

G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in F major Op. 4/5 HWV 293, La Divina Armonia - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 8  minutes.

Magnus Carlsen is World Rapid Champion!

Magnus Carlsen is World Rapid Champion! - YouTube

This weekend’s update on Crypto. What next in 2023?  Approx. 24 minutes.

FTX Losses & Contagion are Destroying Crypto Market as Investment Funds & Crypto Businesses Collapse

FTX Losses & Contagion are Destroying Crypto Market as Investment Funds & Crypto Businesses Collapse - YouTube

What happened to the man who shoplifted a calendar on New Year’s Eve? He got 12 months!

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