Baltic Dry Index. 1361 -25 Brent Crude 79.17
Spot Gold 1785 US 2 Year Yield 4.39 +0.06
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 13/12/22 World 654,230,155
Deaths 6,660,217
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
In the stock casinos, more hopium. Hopium that today’s US CPI numbers will show US inflation rising at a slowing pace.
Hopium that, if it happens, it might be enough to force the US central bank to signal a policy shift on interest rates tomorrow.
Hopium that China’s u-turn on Covid-19 lockdown policy might just set off a new China led Asian boom. One downside if it does, any new China led boom will likely lead to yet more energy price inflation.
One
other caution, the US Treasury yield curve is now inverted from the 6 month
Bill (4.78) to the 30 year Bond (3.57.)
Asia-Pacific stocks climb as Hong Kong scraps Covid restrictions for incoming travelers
UPDATED MON, DEC 12 2022 11:11 PM
EST
Asia-Pacific shares opened in positive territory
as investors look ahead to a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting and
U.S. CPI data reading.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
up 0.67% after Chief Executive John Lee announced further easing of Covid
restrictions.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was
up 0.17%. The Nikkei
225 in Japan added 0.29%, while the Topix inched up 0.40%.
Korean benchmark Kospi dropped
fractionally and the Kosdaq shed 0.22%. The MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.42%.
In mainland
China, the Shenzhen Component shed
0.174%, while the Shanghai
Composite climbed 0.07%.
Hong Kong will post its industrial production
data for the third quarter, and the Bank of Korea will also post minutes from
its November meeting.
Australian business sentiment fell into negative territory for
the first time since December last year.
Traders are bracing for the
release of the U.S.
consumer price index report for November and hoping for signs
of easing inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect
a 0.3% increase on a monthly basis, which would mark a step down
from October’s 0.4%
Overnight in the U.S., the
blue-chip Dow gained 528.58 points, or 1.58%, to 34,005.04, marking its first
close over 34,000 since Dec. 2. The S&P 500 climbed 1.43% to close at
3,990.56, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.26% to stand at 11,143.74.
Asia-Pacific
shares, U.S. CPI, inflation (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are flat as investors await key November inflation
report
UPDATED TUE, DEC 13 2022 12:03 AM
EST
Stock futures were flat early Wednesday as Wall
Street braced for November’s key inflation report and the beginning of the
Federal Reserve December policy meeting.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average inched 0.01% lower, while futures connected to the S&P
500 and Nasdaq 100 traded flat, declining 0.08% and 0.14% respectively.
Oracle shares
gained nearly 2% after hours on strong quarterly results.
Investors are looking ahead to
the release of November’s
consumer price index report, and hoping for signs of easing
inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a 0.3% increase on a monthly
basis or an annual pace of 7.3%. That would be a step down from October’s 0.4%
monthly increase and annual gain of 7.7%.
Tuesday’s inflation report could
play a key role in the Federal Reserve’s next rate-hiking decision expected at
the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.
Traders are largely pricing in a
50 basis point increase, a slight decline from the previous four hikes. They
will also monitor updated economic projections and commentary out of Chair
Jerome Powell’s press conference for signs of a potential policy pivot as fears
of a recession linger on Wall Street.
Monday’s overnight
moves follow a solid session for all the major averages after a tough down
week. The Dow gained more than 528 points, or 1.58%, while the S&P and
Nasdaq rose 1.43% and 1.26%, respectively.
All major S&P
500 sectors finished with gains, led to the upside by energy stocks, which rose
as oil prices gained.
“I think this is a
reflection of what’s anticipated out of the CPI number tomorrow, and a hope
that the Fed will confirm a 50 basis point raise on Wednesday,” said Kevin
Philip, partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “I think the market, as it’s
done before, is banking, in my opinion, a little too heavily on some sort of
Fed pivot and this bounce we got today is fragile at best.”
Stock
futures are flat as investors await key November inflation report (cnbc.com)
Finally,
more news from cryptoland. SBF arrested, but was the timing to prevent his
testimony by video later today before the US House?
FTX founder Sam
Bankman-Fried arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. files criminal charges
FTX founder Sam
Bankman-Fried was arrested by Bahamian authorities Monday evening after the
United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York shared a sealed
indictment with the Bahamian government, setting the stage for extradition and
U.S. trial for the onetime crypto billionaire at the heart of the crypto
exchange’s collapse.
His arrest is the
first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the
multibillion-dollar implosion of FTX last month.
Before his arrest was
announced, Bankman-Fried had been expected to testify virtually before the
House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, but his attorneys told CNBC that
he will not appear. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who oversees that committee,
said that she was “surprised” at his arrest, and disappointed that Congress
would not be able to hear from him on Tuesday.
Damian Williams, the U.S. Attorney for the
Southern District of New York, said
on Twitter that the federal government anticipated moving to
“unseal the indictment in the morning.” The charges include wire fraud, wire
fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy, and money
laundering, according to the New York Times, citing a person familiar with
the matter.
Meanwhile, the Securities and
Exchange Commission has initiated a separate set of charges against Bankman-Fried,
relating to “violations of our securities laws, which will be filed publicly
tomorrow in the Southern District of New York,” enforcement
director Gurbir Grewal said in a statement.
Bahamas Attorney General Ryan Pinder said that the
United States was “likely to request his extradition.” The Royal Bahamas police
force confirmed his arrest and said he would appear in magistrate court in
Nassau on Tuesday.
In a statement, Bahamian Prime
Minister Philip Davis said, “The Bahamas and the United States have a shared
interest in holding accountable all individuals associated with FTX who may
have betrayed the public trust and broken the law.”
“While the United States is pursuing
criminal charges against SBF individually, The Bahamas will continue its own
regulatory and criminal investigations into the collapse of FTX, with the
continued cooperation of its law enforcement and regulatory partners in the
United States and elsewhere,” continued the statement.
Bahamian regulators and FTX’s
attorneys had been engaged in a bruising battle in chambers and in the court of
public opinion. Earlier Monday, FTX attorneys accused the Bahamian
government of allegedly working with Bankman-Fried to spirit away FTX assets
from company control and into crypto wallets controlled by Bahamian regulators.
More
FTX
founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrested in the Bahamas (cnbc.com)
Next,
how crypto contagion spread and is probably still spreading. Approx. 20
minutes. Not sure if mispronouncing
SBF’s name is deliberate or accidental. Tether next?
Crypto's
Great Financial Crisis: Everything You Need To Know (So Far)
Crypto's
Great Financial Crisis: Everything You Need To Know (So Far) - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Economy returns to growth in October -
but recession still expected
There
is no sudden recovery in output to cheer as the impact of the Queen's funeral
continues to play out in UK growth figures.
12
December 2022
The economy
returned to growth in October, according to early official figures which
experts suggest could be the last to show expansion for some time.
The Office for
National Statistics (ONS) reported growth of 0.5% - following a contraction of
0.6% in September which was largely put down to disruption to usual
activity because of the bank holiday for the Queen's funeral.
October's partial
recovery, which was slightly stronger than economists had forecast, was mostly
explained by the number of working days returning to normal rather than any
real surge in output.
The ONS charted the
main boost coming from wholesale and retail activity - both significantly
affected by closures as a mark of respect to the late Queen.
As such, economists
still expect a recession to be confirmed at the end of the year.
That is because
output is tipped to be negative during the current fourth quarter as a whole,
following the 0.2% dip recorded for the third quarter to September.
The Bank of England
and Office for Budget Responsibility - which have both already declared their
belief that the UK is in recession - expect the
downturn to last throughout 2023 but remain shallow.
Economic activity
has slowed as a result of high inflation, mostly caused by Russia's war in
Ukraine, curbing appetite for spending.
Interest rate rises
from the Bank, aimed at curbing inflation, have raised borrowing costs to
further dampen demand.
Fixed rate
mortgages, also, are yet to ease back to levels seen before the September mini-budget
which saw financial markets baulk at the spending plans of the-then Liz
Truss-led government.
New chancellor
Jeremy Hunt, who has since rowed back on the growth measures, said of the
latest growth figures: "High inflation, exacerbated by Putin's illegal
war, is slowing growth across the world, with the IMF predicting a third of the
world economy will be in recession this year or next.
"While today's
figures show some growth, I want to be honest that there is a tough road ahead.
"Like the rest
of Europe, we are not immune from the aftershocks of Covid-19, Putin's war and
high global gas prices.
"Our plan has
restored economic stability and will help drive down inflation next year, but
also lay the foundations for long-term growth through continued record
investment in new infrastructure, science and innovation."
The Bank, which
raised its rate by 0.75 percentage points last month, is widely expected to
impose a further hike of 0.5 percentage points this week.
It is anticipating
an easing in energy-driven inflation ahead but forecast to maintain the
pressure given that the rate of inflation is at a 41-year high of 11.1%.
Figures for November, due on
Wednesday, are expected to show an annual rate of 10.9% according to economists
polled by the Reuters news agency.
Economy returns to growth in October - but recession still expected | Business News | Sky News
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
'Please
protect yourself': China wrestles with COVID surge
December 12, 2022
9:56 AM GMT
BEIJING/HONG
KONG, Dec 12 (Reuters) - People queued outside fever clinics at China's
hospitals for COVID-19 checks on Monday, a new sign of the rapid spread of
symptoms after authorities began dismantling stringent measures against the
disease.
Three years into
the pandemic, China is moving to align with a world that has largely opened up
to live with COVID, making a major policy change last Wednesday after unprecedented protests against its stifling
curbs.
It has dropped
testing prior to many activities, reined in quarantine and is preparing on
Monday to de-activate a mobile app used to track the travel histories of a
population of 1.4 billion people.
Authorities
continue to urge mask-wearing and vaccinations, particularly for the elderly.
But with little
exposure to a disease kept largely in check until now, China is ill-prepared,
analysts say, for a wave in infections that could heap pressure on its fragile health system and drive businesses to a halt.
Lily Li, who
works at a toy company in the southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou, said
several employees, as well as staff at suppliers and distributors, had been
infected and were at home isolating themselves.
"Basically
everybody is now simultaneously rushing to buy rapid antigen test kits but has
also somewhat given up on the hope that COVID can be contained," she said.
"We have
accepted that we will have to get COVID at some point anyway."
In Beijing, the
capital, about 80 people huddled in the cold outside a fever clinic in the
upmarket district of Chaoyang as ambulances zipped past.
Reuters witnessed
similar queues outside clinics in the central city of Wuhan, where COVID-19
first emerged three years ago. read more
The numbers of
patients waiting to be admitted into emergency and fever clinics were growing,
a doctor who works in a respiratory department at a Beijing hospital was quoted
by the state-backed Global Times newspaper on Sunday as saying.
More
'Please protect
yourself': China wrestles with COVID surge | Reuters
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
US scientists set to announce fusion energy
breakthrough
Tue, 13 December 2022 at
3:26 am
WASHINGTON (AP) — Energy Secretary
Jennifer Granholm was set to announce a “major scientific breakthrough” Tuesday
in the decades-long quest to harness fusion, the energy that powers the sun and
stars.
Researchers at the Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory in California for the first time produced more energy in a
fusion reaction than was used to ignite it, something called net energy gain,
according to one government official and one scientist familiar with the
research. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not
authorized to discuss the breakthrough ahead of the announcement.
Granholm was scheduled to appear
alongside Livermore researchers at a morning event in Washington. The
Department of Energy declined to give details ahead of time. The news was first
reported by the Financial Times.
Proponents of fusion hope that it
could one day produce nearly limitless, carbon-free energy, displacing fossil
fuels and other traditional energy sources. Producing energy that powers homes
and businesses from fusion is still decades away. But researchers said it was a
significant step nonetheless.
“It’s almost like it’s a starting gun
going off,” said Professor Dennis Whyte, director of the Plasma Science and
Fusion Center at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a leader in
fusion research. "We should be pushing towards making fusion energy
systems available to tackle climate change and energy security.”
Net energy gain has been an elusive
goal because fusion happens at such high temperatures and pressures that it is
incredibly difficult to control.
More
US
scientists set to announce fusion energy breakthrough (yahoo.com)
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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