A Bad End To A Crooked Year? Investment Influencers.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1560 +32     Brent Crude 79.57

Spot Gold 1791            US 2 Year Yield 4.17 -0.06

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 19/12/22 World 658,830,211

Deaths 6,672,043

"Finance is the art of passing customer segregated funds from hypothecation to hypothecation until it finally disappears."

SBF & Jon Corzine, with apologies to Robert Sarnoff.

Normally the last two trading weeks in the stock casinos are thinly traded providing the stock perma bulls an easy opportunity to dress up the year-end close.

This year looks like being a little different.  Professional money managers will more likely be looking to shed losers from the year-end books so as to minimise January redemptions and to provide optimistic, if false, talking points for 2023.

Frankly, most of 2023 and certainly early 2023 looks to be recessionary at best, a severe slump at worst, and there’s still far more carnage to come in cryptoland.

How long did it take for the price of tulips to recover after the crash of February 1637, and tulips had a tiny amount of real intrinsic value. What intrinsic value does bitcoin and all the rest of the crypto unicorns have? What vital global trade function are they fulfilling, assuming that not all of them are simply as yet undiscovered frauds?

 

Asia-Pacific markets fall as recession fears grow, China vows to stabilize economy

UPDATED MON, DEC 19 2022 12:21 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded lower as investors struggled to shake off recession fears. Stocks on Wall Street marked their second consecutive week of losses for the first time since September as concerns grew over the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing to hike rates.

In China, officials vowed to stabilize its economy in 2023 and maintain ample liquidity in financial markets in order to meet key targets, according to a statement following the annual budget-setting Central Economic Work Conference last week, Reuters reported.

In mainland China. The Shanghai Composite also fell 1.31% as the city announced it will shut most schools again Monday as the number of Covid cases surged. The Shenzhen Component fell 0.96% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.45%.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia traded 0.2% lower. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.08% and the Topix lost 0.68%. South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.5%.

The People’s Bank of China is slated to set rates for its one and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) on Tuesday.

Business confidence in China hits all-time low: World Economics

Business sentiment in China fell to the lowest ever recorded by the World Economics Sales Managers Survey since the survey began in 2013.

The all-sectors index on business confidence in China fell to 48.1 in December, according to a survey conducted by the organization.

“The survey suggests strongly that the growth rate of the Chinese economy has slowed quite dramatically, and may be heading for recession in 2023,” it said in the report.

“The lights may not have gone out, but prospects for economic growth in 2023 have certainly dimmed.”

Asia-Pacific markets fall as recession fears grow, China vows to stabilize economy (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are flat after major averages post consecutive weekly losses

UPDATED SUN, DEC 18 2022 7:02 PM EST

Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Sunday after the major averages posted their second straight week of losses for the first time since September. Investors also struggled to shake off recession fears.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded flat, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.05% and 0.07%, respectively.

The overnight moves followed another down week for stocks after the Federal Reserve delivered a 50 basis point short-term interest rate hike and signaled higher-for-longer rates. Recession fears mounted as the central bank upped its forecast for future hikes above previous expectations, saying that it now expects to hike rates to 5.1%.

On Friday, the Dow fell 281.76 points, or 0.85%. The 30-stock index shed 1.66% for the week, bringing its monthly losses to 4.83%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.11% and tumbled 2.08% for the week, upping its monthly declines to 5.58%. The Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.97% on Friday and 2.72% for the week. It’s down 6.65% this month.

“Monetary policy has quickly gotten restrictive now that the Fed has raised rates by 400 basis points in 9 months,” wrote Ed Moya, senior market strategist at Oanda in a note to a client Friday. “Recession risks will only grow now that [Fed chair Jerome Powell] has signaled that we should expect ‘ongoing increases.’”

Earnings season continues this week with reports from Nike and FedEx on Tuesday. The National Association of Home Builders survey, which gauges monthly sentiment, is due out Monday.

Stock futures are flat after major averages post consecutive weekly losses (cnbc.com)

Insurers shun FTX-linked crypto firms as contagion risk mounts

December 19, 2022 5:03 AM GMT

Dec 19 (Reuters) - Insurers are denying or limiting coverage to clients with exposure to bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, leaving digital currency traders and exchanges uninsured for any losses from hacks, theft or lawsuits, several market participants said.

Insurers were already reluctant to underwrite asset and directors and officers (D&O) protection policies for crypto companies because of scant market regulation and the volatile prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Now, the collapse of FTX last month has amplified concerns.

Specialists in the Lloyd's of London (SOLYD.UL) and Bermuda insurance markets are requiring more transparency from crypto companies about their exposure to FTX. The insurers are also proposing broad policy exclusions for any claims arising from the company's collapse.

Kyle Nichols, president of broker Hugh Wood Canada Ltd, said insurers were requiring clients to fill out a questionnaire asking whether they invested in FTX, or had assets on the exchange.

Lloyd's of London broker Superscript is giving clients that dealt with FTX a mandatory questionnaire to outline the percentage of their exposure, said Ben Davis, lead for digital assets at Superscript.

"Let's say the client has 40% of their total assets at FTX that they can't access, that is either going to be a decline or we're going to put on an exclusion that limits cover for any claims arising out of their funds held on FTX," he said.

The exclusions denying payout for any claims arising out of the FTX bankruptcy are found in insurance policies that cover the protection of digital assets and for personal liabilities of directors and officers of companies that deal in crypto, five insurance sources told Reuters. A couple of insurers have been pushing for a broad exclusion to policies for anything related to FTX, a broker said.

Exclusions may act as a failsafe for insurers, and will make it even more difficult for companies that are seeking coverage, insurers and brokers said.

More

Insurers shun FTX-linked crypto firms as contagion risk mounts | Reuters

 Finally, Professor Boyle on “investment influencers.” Just how dumbed down have rich American investors become? Approx. 18 minutes.

$100 Million Pump & Dump Scheme!

$100 Million Pump & Dump Scheme! - YouTube

“Call it the Goldman Sachs test. If this is something Goldman would do to its clients, don't do it."

Felix Salmon.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Peak inflation? The new dilemma for central banks

Policymakers have talked tough this week to buy space for further rate rises even though the pace of price increases could be slowing

DECEMBER 16 2022

The world’s leading central banks talked tough this week, but carried a smaller stick. After a series of meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all chose to shift their inflation-fighting strategy from a recent pattern of interest rate rises

of 0.75 percentage points down to a half point. Switzerland, Norway, Mexico and the Philippines also slowed the pace of interest rate rises.

They married weaker action, however, with stronger words. The Fed talked of having “more work to do” to defeat high inflation, the ECB spoke of “more ground to cover” while the BoE insisted it needed to be “forceful” in battling price rises.

These moves were far from co-ordinated. Instead, the world’s central banks are trying to buy themselves the space to raise rates further if they feel it necessary at a time when the apparent peaking of inflation in many countries could make that more politically more complicated.

Seth Carpenter, who spent 15 years at the Fed and is now the global chief economist at Morgan Stanley, says that most central banks are getting near their peak policy rates, one that is likely to cause a sharp slowdown or recession in their economies. As a result, he said it was a wise strategic move to suggest more action now.

“For central bankers, they really do have the responsibility of macroeconomic stability,” he says. “So I think they would rather be wrong by talking tough and saying that they’re ready to keep raising rates more and then happily find out later that they didn’t have to do more, rather than telling the world that they’re done and then go, ‘Oops, we have to do more.’” 

Hawkish forecasts

The Fed moved first on Wednesday, breaking a series of four 0.75 percentage point rate rises and implementing a half-point increase so that interest rates now sit in a target range between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent.

----In Frankfurt, interest rates at 2 per cent are still considerably lower than in the US but Christine Lagarde, the ECB president, insisted the smaller rate rise than in previous meetings was not a shift towards ending the rate-tightening cycle that it appeared.

“The ECB is not pivoting,” she said, adding that the eurozone’s central bank had “more ground to cover, we have longer to go”, than the Fed. Her near promise of further half-percentage point rate rises coming in February and March surprised economists, many of whom had expected the central bank to quickly end its cycle of rate rises in the next few months.

In the UK, where the authorities are enjoying a lower international profile now than during September’s disastrous mini Budget, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive meeting to 3.5 per cent, the highest in 14 years. BoE governor Andrew Bailey insisted the move had been prompted by further evidence of inflation becoming ingrained into private sector wage increases. This, he said, “justifie[d] a further forceful monetary policy response” 

Although the initial causes of high inflation have been different in the eurozone, UK and the US, economists pointed out that all three central banks face the same difficult communications challenge for 2023.

Headline inflation has almost certainly peaked and will fall next year, but officials are far from certain that the underlying inflationary pressures will also disappear. Their worry is that inflation will take too long to fall back to their hoped-for 2 per cent targets and might stick at a rate considerably higher.

 Some of the concerns about future inflation in Europe relate to the time it will take for the 2022 energy shock to work its way fully through the economy.

More

Peak inflation? The new dilemma for central banks | Financial Times (ft.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Linked to Blood Clotting: FDA

Dec 17 2022

Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine has been linked to blood clotting in older individuals, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

FDA researchers, crunching data from a database of elderly persons in the United States, found that pulmonary embolism—blood clotting in the lungs—met the initial threshold for a statistical signal and continued meeting the criteria after a more in-depth evaluation.

Three other outcomes of interest—a lack of oxygen to the heart, a blood platelet disorder called immune thrombocytopenia, and another type of clotting called intravascular coagulation—initially raised red flags, researchers said. More in-depth evaluations, such as comparisons with populations who received influenza vaccines, showed those three as no longer meeting the statistical threshold for a signal.

Researchers looked at data covering 17.4 million elderly Americans who received a total of 34.6 million vaccine doses between Dec. 10, 2020, and Jan. 16, 2022.

The study was published by the journal Vaccine on Dec. 1. 

The FDA said it was not taking any action on the results because they do not prove the vaccines cause any of the four outcomes, and because the findings “are still under investigation and require more robust study.”

More

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Linked to Blood Clotting: FDA (theepochtimes.com)

Setting the Record Straight on Ivermectin

 DECEMBER 14, 2022 

The COVID-19 pandemic brought us a panoply of lies and evidence-light declarations that were less intended to inform Americans than to consolidate power and buy time. Among these were Anthony Fauci’s famous shift from arguing against wearing masks, to recommending wearing one, and, finally, to wearing two. 

Fauci also tried to convince us that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was not manipulated in a lab even though his inner circle had emailed him about “unusual features” of the virus that looked “potentially engineered.”  And, of course, we had “fifteen days to stop the spread,” an evergreen concept that dragged on for two years. Lest readers fault us for forgetting, there was also the “gain of function” controversy, the focused protection battle, school closures, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and vaccine misrepresentations. 

These topics have received much public attention. The one pandemic topic that hasn’t, and is nonetheless important, is the maligned ivermectin. It’s time to set the record straight.

If you’ve followed the news closely over the last two years, you’ve probably heard a few things about ivermectin. First, that it’s a veterinary medicine intended for horses and cows. Second, that the FDA and other government regulatory agencies recommended against its use for COVID-19. Third, that even the inventor and manufacturer of ivermectin, Merck & Co., came out against it. Fourth, that one of the largest studies showing that ivermectin worked for COVID-19 was retracted for data fraud. And, finally, that the largest and best study of ivermectin, the TOGETHER trial, showed that ivermectin didn’t work.

Let’s consider the evidence.

Ivermectin has a distinguished history, and it may have benefits comparable to those of penicillin. The anti-parasitic’s discovery led to a Nobel Prize and subsequent billions of safe administrations around the world, even among children and pregnant women. “Ivermectin is widely available worldwide, inexpensive, and one of the safest drugs in modern medicine.”

The FDA put out a special warning against using ivermectin for COVID-19. The FDA’s warning, which included language such as, “serious harm,” “hospitalized,” “dangerous,” “very dangerous,” “seizures,” “coma and even death,” and “highly toxic,” might suggest that the FDA was warning against pills laced with poison, not a drug the FDA had already approved as safe. Why did it become dangerous when used for COVID-19? The FDA didn’t say.

Because of the FDA’s rules, if it were to make any statement on ivermectin, it was obliged to attack it. The FDA prohibits the promotion of drugs for unapproved uses. Since fighting SARS-CoV-2 was an unapproved use of ivermectin, the FDA couldn’t have advocated use without obvious hypocrisy. Ivermectin’s discoverer, Merck & Co., had multiple reasons to disparage its own drug. 

Merck, too, couldn’t have legally “promoted” ivermectin for COVID-19 without a full FDA approval, something that would have taken years and many millions of dollars. Plus, Merck doesn’t make much money from cheap, generic ivermectin but was hoping to find success with its new, expensive drug, Lagevrio (molnupiravir).

A large study of ivermectin for COVID-19 by Elgazzar et al. was withdrawn over charges of plagiarism and faked data. Many media reports seem fixated on this one dubious study, but it was one of many clinical studies. After the withdrawn studies have been removed from consideration, there are 15 trials that suggest that ivermectin doesn’t work for COVID-19 and 78 that do. 

More, much more.

Setting the Record Straight on Ivermectin ⋆ Brownstone Institute

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Clever device efficiently splits hydrogen and lithium out of seawater

By Loz Blain  December 15, 2022

Chinese researchers say they've demonstrated a seawater electrolyzer that works as efficiently as a commercial freshwater electrolyzer for months on end without corroding itself to death. It also looks like these machines could harvest lithium, too.

One problem with renewably-produced hydrogen is that it uses fresh water – and with a quarter of the world's population already facing severe water scarcity at least one month of every year, freshwater is an ever more finite and precious resource. So technologies that can electrolyze hydrogen out of the abundant seawater that blankets most of the planet are a vital area of enquiry.

You can desalinate seawater and then split it, but it's not a great solution; most of your input energy is lost in the desal process, and that drives up the price of the hydrogen you're making. There are also plenty of direct seawater electrolysis machines, but most die too quickly to be useful in a commercial sense; choride ions in the complex ocean brew turn into highly corrosive chlorine gas at the anode, and it eats away the electrodes and degrades the catalysts until the machine stops working.

Researchers at China's Nanjing Tech University believe they've found a way around this problem. In a study published in Nature last month, the Nanjing team demonstrated a direct seawater electrolysis machine that ran for more than 3,200 hours (133 days) without failing. They say it's efficient, scalable and operates much like a freshwater splitter "without a notable increase in operation cost."

The team's electrolyzer keeps the seawater completely separate from the concentrated potassium hydroxide electrolyte and the electrodes using cheap, waterproof, breathable, anti-biofouling, PTFE-based membranes. These membranes stop liquid water from getting through, but they do let water vapor through. The difference in water vapor pressure between the seawater side and the electrolyte side "provides a driving force for spontaneous seawater gasification (evaporation) at the seawater side."

More, plus diagrams.

Clever device efficiently splits hydrogen and lithium out of seawater (newatlas.com)

One of the queries Quakers are asked to consider, is: "Do you maintain strict integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public revenue?"

Probably why there a no Quakers on Wall Street or in the City of London.