Baltic Dry Index. 1386 +01 Brent Crude 76.55
Spot Gold 1788 US 2 Year Yield 4.33 +0.02
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 12/12/22 World 653,815,436
Deaths 6,658,727
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving
that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith
In the stock casinos, it’s all about the US Federal Reserve interest rate hike. How big or how little? Plus how does Fed Chairman Powell and his gang see the future.
Does Chairman Powell agree with US Treasury Secretary Yellin that US inflation will be much lower by the end of 2023, and if it is, will it be the result of a new massive global recession?
Adding to the mix, the US on Tuesday releases its CPI for November, before the US stock casinos close out Friday with a massive options expiration.
All
in all an interesting week for the punters, but how will it end?
Hong Kong shares
briefly drop 2% as investors look ahead to Fed meeting, U.S. inflation this
week
UPDATED MON, DEC 12 2022
12:00 AM EST
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific declined Monday as investors looked ahead to a Fed meeting and
U.S. inflation data this week.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index briefly
fell 2%, leading losses in the region before last trading at 1.88%. The Hang
Seng Tech index shed 3.30%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
down 0.40%. Japan’s Nikkei
225′s fell 0.17% while the Topix slid 0.14%.
South Korean benchmark Kospi shed 0.57%,
and the Kosdaq dipped 0.44%. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan slipped 1.13%.
Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite lost
0.63% and the Shenzhen
Component was down 0.478%.
On Monday, India is scheduled to release
inflation and industrial output data.
Later this week stateside, the
Federal Reserve is set to begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Economists
widely expect the U.S. central bank to raise rates by half a percentage point
Wednesday.
The latest reading for the U.S. consumer
price index is also slated for Tuesday. Analysts polled by
Reuters expect the index rose 0.3% in November.
Asia-Pacific
markets, CPI data, Fed, Hang Seng Index (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
slip to start the week with Fed meeting, key inflation data on deck
UPDATED MON, DEC 12 2022 12:34 AM
EST
U.S. stock futures were fractionally lower early
Monday ahead of a week with several anticipated events in the ongoing fight
against inflation.
Futures for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average slipped 3 points, or 0.01%. Those for the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq 100 edged 0.07% and 0.1% lower, respectively.
The move in futures comes as
investors will be focused
on inflation this week. On Tuesday, the November consumer price
index will be released, and traders will be looking for a sign that inflation
is slowing.
The Federal Reserve has a two-day
meeting starting the same day. The central bank is expected to announce another
rate hike on Wednesday, though traders are anticipating a smaller move than in
recent months.
In addition to the expected rate
hike, the Fed’s updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press
conference could be key signals for what the central bank wants to do in the
coming months.
“Financial conditions have eased
dramatically since the October CPI reading released last month, so the Fed will
likely use the December FOMC meeting to walk those back.
...We think the markets are too sanguine on rates after the first quarter
and we expect Powell to take a more hawkish tone and for the dots to indicate
higher rates for a longer period of time than what is currently being priced in
by the futures markets,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer for
Cornerstone Wealth.
Wall Street is coming off a rocky
week that saw all three
major averages lose ground. The Dow fell 2.77% for its worst week
since September. The S&P 500 dropped 3.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed
3.99%.
Stock
futures slip to start the week with Fed meeting, key inflation data on deck
(cnbc.com)
U.S. inflation will be much lower by end of 2023, Yellen
says
December 12, 2022 1:31 AM GMT
Dec 11 (Reuters)
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday forecast a substantial
reduction in U.S. inflation in 2023, barring an unexpected shock.
"I
believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation if there's
not ... an unanticipated shock," she told CBS' '60 Minutes' in an
interview released Sunday.
Asked
about the likelihood of recession, the former Federal Reserve chair said,
"There's a risk of a recession. But ... it certainly isn't, in my view,
something that is necessary to bring inflation down."
Yellen's comment
came days before the Fed is expected to slow the aggressive pace of interest
rate increases it has pursued this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has
telegraphed a smaller, half-of-a-percentage point increase in the policy rate,
to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, after four 75-basis point hikes this year.
Yellen
told CBS that economic growth was slowing substantially, inflation was easing
and she remained hopeful that the labor market would remain healthy.
She said she
hoped the spike in inflation seen this year would be short-lived, and said the
U.S. government had learned "a lotta lessons" about the need to
curtail inflation after high prices seen in the 1970s.
Shipping
costs had come down and long delivery lags had eased, while gasoline prices at
the pump were "way down."
"I
think we'll see a substantial reduction in inflation in the year ahead,"
she said.
U.S.
inflation will be much lower by end of 2023, Yellen says | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Japan's
wholesale inflation near steady at 9.3% as commodity prices ease
December 12, 2022 3:15 AM GMT
TOKYO, Dec 12
(Reuters) - Japan's November wholesale prices rose 9.3% from a year earlier,
data showed on Monday, a rate of increase that was almost unchanged from the
previous month and showed initial signs of an inflation peak amid easing global
commodity prices.
It
was the 21st consecutive month to show an annual rise in wholesale prices.
While
food and energy costs continued to rise, the data may offer some relief for
Japan's economy, which relies almost entirely on imports for fuel and raw
material.
The rise in the
corporate goods price index, which measures prices that companies charge each
other for goods and services, exceeded market forecasts for a 8.9% percent gain
but was slightly below the revised 9.4% annual increase seen in October.
The
index, at 118.5, reached its highest ever level.
The
yen-based import price index in November was 28.2% higher than a year earlier,
slowing sharply from October's revised annual surge of 42.3%, according to the
Bank of Japan (BOJ) data. The currency has rebounded from multi-decade lows,
moderating rises in import costs.
More
Japan's
wholesale inflation near steady at 9.3% as commodity prices ease | Reuters
Opinion: Household wealth down by $13.5 trillion in 2022,
second-worst destruction on record
Last Updated: Dec. 10, 2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET First Published: Dec. 9, 2022 at 5:09 p.m. ET
American households lost about
$6.8 trillion in wealth over the first three quarters of 2022 as the stock
market SPX, -0.73% DJIA, -0.90% COMP, -0.70% shed
more than 25% of its value, the Federal Reserve reported Friday in the
government’s quarterly financial accounts.
Nominal net worth fell 4.6% to $143.3 trillion, as
the market value of assets fell by $6 trillion and liabilities rose by about
$900 billion. Households’ balance sheets were propped up by a 10% increase in
home equity, which is the greatest source of wealth for most American families.
But the loss in real wealth from January through September
was about twice as large — $13.5 trillion in current dollars — after accounting
for the rapid inflation experienced this year. Inflation makes both debts and
liabilities worth less in terms of purchasing power.
The 8.6% drop in real wealth over three quarters
is the second-fastest decline on record (the data series begins in 1959). The
only greater drop was following the financial crisis of 2008-09. (The wealth
lost during the Great Depression of the 1930s would likely hold the record if
we had the data.)
Even after adjusting for
inflation, real household wealth was about 10% higher than it was in late 2019,
just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
Household balance sheets — in the
aggregate — remained in excellent shape despite the losses on Wall Street and
the erosion of purchasing power. Wealth as a share of annual disposable
(after-tax) personal income slipped slightly to 769%, not far off the record
825% in the first quarter of the year.
----Warning signs are also flashing as household
debt has awakened, like Rip Van Winkle, after a 10-year nap. Following a decade
of no growth in debt in inflation-adjusted terms, real household debt grew at a
4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest growth since 2007.
Consumers are taking on debt or
dipping into their savings to maintain their living standards. By one measure
highlighted in this Fed report, the personal savings rate has fallen to 3.7% of
disposable income, after averaging more than 10% for the past 10 years.
More
Opinion: Opinion: Household wealth falls $13.5
trillion, second worst drop on record - MarketWatch
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
New Autopsy Report Reveals
Those Who Died Suddenly Were Likely Killed by the COVID Vaccine
December 8, 2022 Updated: December 8, 2022
A
major new autopsy report has found that three people who died unexpectedly
at home with no pre-existing disease shortly after COVID vaccination were likely killed by the vaccine. A further two
deaths were found to be possibly due to the vaccine.
The report, published in Clinical Research in Cardiology, the
official journal of the German Cardiac Society, detailed autopsies carried out
at Heidelberg University Hospital in 2021. Led by Thomas Longerich and Peter
Schirmacher, it found that in five deaths that occurred within a week of the
first or second dose of vaccination with Pfizer or Moderna, inflammation of the
heart tissue due to an autoimmune response triggered by the vaccine had likely
or possibly caused the death.
In
total the report looked at 35 autopsies carried out at the University of
Heidelberg in people who died within 20 days of COVID vaccination, of which 10
were deemed on examination to be due to a pre-existing illness and not the
vaccine. For the remaining 20, the report did not rule out the vaccine as a
cause of death, which Dr. Schirmacher has confirmed to me is intentional as the
autopsy results were inconclusive. Almost all of the remaining cases were of a
cardiovascular cause, as indicated in the table below from the supplementary
materials, where 21 of the 30 deaths are attributed to a cardiovascular cause.
One of these is attributed to blood clots (VITT) from AstraZeneca vaccination
(the report was looking specifically at post-vaccine myocarditis deaths), leaving 20 from other cardiovascular
causes.
----For the five deaths in the main
report attributed as likely or possibly due to the
vaccines, the authors state:
“All
cases lacked significant coronary heart disease, acute or chronic manifestations of ischaemic heart
disease, manifestations of cardiomyopathy or other signs of a pre-existing,
clinically relevant heart disease.”
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New battery technology has
potential to significantly reduce energy storage costs
New,
low-cost battery built with four times the capacity of lithium
Date: December
7, 2022
Source: University
of Sydney
Summary: Researchers
are hoping that a new, low-cost battery which holds four times the energy
capacity of lithium-ion batteries and is far cheaper to produce will
significantly reduce the cost of transitioning to a decarbonized economy.
An international team of researchers
are hoping that a new, low-cost battery which holds four times the energy
capacity of lithium-ion batteries and is far cheaper to produce will
significantly reduce the cost of transitioning to a decarbonised economy.
Led by Dr Shenlong Zhao from the
University's School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, the battery has
been made using sodium-sulphur -- a type of molten salt that can be processed
from sea water -- costing much less to produce than lithium-ion.
Although sodium-sulphur (Na-S)
batteries have existed for more than half a century, they have been an inferior
alternative and their widespread use has been limited by low energy capacity
and short life cycles.
Using a simple pyrolysis process and
carbon-based electrodes to improve the reactivity of sulphur and the
reversibility of reactions between sulphur and sodium, the researchers' battery
has shaken off its formerly sluggish reputation, exhibiting super-high capacity
and ultra-long life at room temperature.
The researchers say the Na-S battery
is also a more energy dense and less toxic alternative to lithium-ion
batteries, which, while used extensively in electronic devices and for energy
storage, are expensive to manufacture and recycle.
Dr Zhao's Na-S battery has been
specifically designed to provide a high-performing solution for large renewable
energy storage systems, such as electrical grids, while significantly reducing
operational costs.
According to the Clean Energy
Council, in 2021 32.5 percent of Australia's electricity came from clean energy
sources and the industry is accelerating. Household energy storage is also
growing. According to a recent report a record 33,000 batteries were installed
in 2021.
"Our sodium battery has the
potential to dramatically reduce costs while providing four times as much storage
capacity. This is a significant breakthrough for renewable energy development
which, although it reduces costs in the long term, has had several financial
barriers to entry," said lead researcher Dr Zhao.
"When the sun isn't shining and
the breeze isn't blowing, we need high-quality storage solutions that don't
cost the Earth and are easily accessible on a local or regional level.
"We hope that by providing a
technology that reduces costs we can sooner reach a clean energy horizon. It
probably goes without saying but the faster we can decarbonise -- the better
chances we have of capping warming.
"Storage solutions that are
manufactured using plentiful resources like sodium -- which can be processed
from sea water -- also have the potential to guarantee greater energy security
more broadly and allow more countries to join the shift towards
decarbonisation."
The lab-scale batteries (cion
batteries) have been successfully fabricated and tested in the University of
Sydney's chemical engineering facility. The researchers now plan to improve and
commercialise the recently fabricated Ah-level pouch cells.
In any
great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to
be right alone.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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