Wednesday 31 July 2019

Trump Wants A Big Cut. Calls China A “Rip Off.”

Baltic Dry Index. 1899 -23   Brent Crude 65.28

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe.  92 days away.
Nuclear Trump China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening,”

President Trump.

Trump’s big Fed Day arrives. Will the Fed cut by a tiny quarter of one percent, or “go big” as ordered by President Trump?  The market is betting on the tiny quarter of one percent.

But cowed by President Trump, will the Fed go all-in and follow the ECB into negative interest rates in the months ahead? Hopefully not, as NIRP will wreak havoc on the world’s, by far largest, reserve fiat currency.

In addition to Fed day it is the last trading day of the first month of the second half of the year. Time to dress up the stock index closings again.

But while it might be dress up Wednesday, in the real world things look far from rosy, with President Trump being rude about China again. Hardly a good start to the renewed USA v China trade talks.

Below, some of the recent news.

"I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words."

President Trump.

Trump says he wants more than ‘small’ Fed rate cut

By Greg Robb Published: July 29, 2019 12:55 p.m. ET
President Donald Trump on Monday made it clear that he wants more than a quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

“A small rate cut is not enough,” Trump wrote on Twitter on Monday.

Most Fed watchers think the central bank will move in small steps, cutting rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday, while leaving the door open for more moves later this year.

Only a few economists, including Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish, think the Fed should engineer a half-point cut.

In an interview with MarketWatch, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said it would be odd for there to be only one quarter-point cut. But Hatzius and many other economists think the Fed might only cut twice, and disappoint a bond market that has three rate cuts priced in for this year.

The U.S. central bank doesn’t think it is embarking on a lengthy series of rate cuts at the moment, speeches from members have revealed. And aggressive rate cuts might signal a recession is imminent, which the Fed wants to avoid.

Instead, the Fed believes it is tweaking rates in order to prolong the expansion, more of an “insurance” cut.

The central bank doesn’t have a clear view of the road ahead, economists said.

Trade war keeps China's factories in reverse gear for third month

July 31, 2019 / 2:36 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s factory activity shrank for the third month in a row in July, an official survey showed, underlining the growing strains on the world’s second-biggest economy as the Sino-U.S. trade war hits business profits, confidence and investment.

Wednesday’s weak manufacturing reading adds to global growth risks and explains why policymakers around the world have stepped up easing measures, with some others considering doing so soon, to counter the fallout from international trade frictions. 

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in July, from the previous month’s 49.4, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, but remained below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a reading of 49.6.

Deteriorating global demand saw export orders shrinking for the 14th month, the survey showed, though the sub-index ticked up fractionally to 46.9 from June’s 46.3.

---- The official gauge came on the second day of U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators’ meeting in Shanghai, their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month, though expectations for progress remain low.

“We expect that this downward trend in manufacturing will continue in 2019 until the trade and technology negotiations make some progress,” said Iris Pang, ING’s Greater China economist.

In a row that has dragged on for more than a year, the world’s two largest economies have slapped billions of dollars of tariffs on each other’s imports, disrupting global supply chains and shaking financial markets. That has prompted central banks from South Korea to Australia to South Africa to cut rates, with the U.S. Federal Reserve also widely expected to ease later on Wednesday for the first time since the global financial crisis.

Trump Lashes Out at China ‘Rip Off’ as Trade Talks Resume

By Terrence Dopp and Justin Sink
Updated on July 31, 2019, 2:07 AM GMT+1

‘They always change the deal,’ he says as U.S. team arrives
·         He says spoke recently with Xi, but doesn’t give details

President Donald Trump lashed out at China for what he said is its unwillingness to buy American agricultural products and said it continues to “rip off” the U.S., just as the two nations resumed negotiations in Shanghai following a three-month breakup.

“China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 -- was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now -- no signs that they are doing so,” Trump said Tuesday on Twitter. “That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through.”

Weak euro zone data backs Draghi's plan for more stimulus

July 30, 2019 / 11:04 AM
PARIS/BERLIN (Reuters) - French growth slowed unexpectedly in the second quarter on weaker household spending and German consumer morale worsened for the third month in a row heading into August, adding to signs that the euro zone economy as a whole is cooling.

The lacklustre read-out of data from the zone’s two biggest economies on Tuesday backed European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s assessment that the growth outlook is deteriorating and the bank should inject more monetary stimulus.

In a further sign of weakness, euro zone economic sentiment deteriorated to hit its lowest level in more than three years in July, European Commission data showed on Tuesday.

“This adds to evidence from PMI data published last week that the euro zone economy will expand by a meager 1% or so this year, strengthening the case for ECB action sooner rather than later,” said Melanie Debono from Capital Economics.

After the ECB changed forward guidance during its policy meeting last week, it is likely to cut rates in September and announce a fresh round of quantitative easing through bond buys in October, Debono added.

The French economy grew 0.2% in the April-June period, down from 0.3% in the previous three months, according to preliminary data from the INSEE statistics agency.

That was just below a Reuters poll of 28 economists, which had an average estimate of 0.3%.

Until now the French economy, the euro zone’s second largest, has proven more resilient than some neighbors such as Germany because it is less dependent on exports and thus less exposed to global swings.

But household spending, the traditional motor of French growth, grew only 0.2%, the slowest rate in a year despite a more than 10 billion euro ($11.1 billion) package of measures launched by President Emmanuel Macron to boost purchasing power.

In Germany, growth is widely expected to have contracted in the second quarter and sentiment surveys suggest that the third quarter might not bring any improvement, raising the specter of a technical recession in Europe’s largest economy.

"Our country is in serious trouble. We don't have victories any more. We used to have victories but [now] we don't have them. When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, China, in a trade deal? They kill us. I beat China all the time. All the time."

President Trump.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, more on the return of gold. Well why not when America’s President talks of deliberately devaluing the dollar, the world’s reserve fiat currency. While one would hope sensible advisors would stop him from trying, you just never know with President Trump and possibly five more years.

Opinion: Watch out, America: China and Russia are stockpiling gold

By Brett Arends  Published: July 29, 2019 1:48 p.m. ET
I’ve never been a gold bug.

The yellow metal generates no cash, grows no crops, provides no shelter and supplies no useful service. It hasn’t been official money for decades. It isn’t any kind of “safe haven” because it always seems to be crashing or booming or crashing again. It hasn’t been an efficient way of verifying payment since Samuel Morse invented the telegraph.

But here’s the funny thing: It’s been going up. Big time. And for none of the usual reasons.
There’s no inflation. Prices are currently rising by about 1.6% a year.

There’s no obvious economic distress. The U.S. economy is growing by about 2.1% a year.

And there’s no financial panic. Stock markets are rising. Wall Street has been hitting new highs. Junk bond spreads — the extra interest that risky companies have to pay to borrow money — are low.

Yet for all that, gold GC00, +0.55%  has now risen 11% in the past two months. Over the past year, it’s up 15%. That’s more than the S&P 500 SPY, -0.21% or the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.44%. And more than the so-called FAANG stocks — Facebook FB, -0.65%, Apple AAPL, -0.56%, Amazon AMZN, -0.81%, Netflix NFLX, -0.92% and Google holding company Alphabet GOOG, -0.88% GOOGL, -0.27%  — that are so fashionable on the Street.
‘Something’s going on here’
What’s going on? And, more interestingly, perhaps, is it worth a trade?

London hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, at Odey Asset Management, says the precious metal drew his eye during the stock market meltdown last fall. “Gold should have gone down last year,” he says from his plush offices in London’s Mayfair district. “It should have ended the year around $1,000 [an ounce]. Instead it was $1,200. I thought, ‘Something’s going on here.’ ”

The explanation? Some of America’s biggest geopolitical rivals were stockpiling gold. Especially China and Russia.

And they still are. The People’s Bank of China recently revealed hiking its gold reserves by 74 tons in the six months through May. The Russian central bank has bought about 96 tons in the first half of the year.
U.S. dollar hegemony
And there’s an obvious reason for China to buy gold. It wants to break up the global hegemony of the U.S. dollar — the hegemony that former French President Charles de Gaulle called America’s “exorbitant privilege.” It wants to make its own currency, the renminbi, a world player. And Odey argues that buying gold bullion is a natural move. Gold reserves should add to world confidence in the Chinese currency.

In other words, the U.S. president, by “Making America Great Again,” may also be Making Gold Great Again.

Do China and Russia really need piles of this arcane yellow metal to break the U.S. dollar’s stranglehold on the world’s financial system?

Can’t they just issue new currency backed by their economic output, as Europe did when it launched the euro 20 years ago?

Maybe, or maybe not. But that seems to be the way they’re betting.

We are at a very rare inflection point in history: The passage of economic hegemony. China’s economy has already overtaken America’s by one key measure, just as America’s once overtook Britain’s. These periods of transition, throughout history, have been times of instability.
Don’t fight the central banks
Odey, once a gold skeptic, has plunged into the metal now in one of his characteristically heavy ways. His flagship hedge funds, Odey European and OEI MAC, were about 40% invested in gold at the end of June.


”You want to do what the central banks are doing,” he says, with a laugh.

Where could gold go? Nobody knows, and Odey isn’t giving a forecast. In theory, some gold bugs argue, a breakdown in the dollar’s hegemony could send the yellow metal spiraling upward by several hundred percent. We shall see.

"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."

President Trump.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Physicists discover new quantum trick for graphene: Magnetism

Date: July 29, 2019

Source: Stanford University -- School of Humanities and Sciences

Summary: Physicists were stunned when two twisted sheets of graphene showed signs of superconductivity. Now scientists have shown that the wonder material also generates a type of magnetism once only dreamed of theoretically.

Sometimes the best discoveries happen when scientists least expect it. While trying to replicate another team's finding, Stanford physicists recently stumbled upon a novel form of magnetism, predicted but never seen before, that is generated when two honeycomb-shaped lattices of carbon are carefully stacked and rotated to a special angle.

The authors suggest the magnetism, called orbital ferromagnetism, could prove useful for certain applications, such as quantum computing. The group describes their finding in the July 25 issue of the journal Science.

"We were not aiming for magnetism. We found what may be the most exciting thing in my career to date through partially targeted and partially accidental exploration," said study leader David Goldhaber-Gordon, a professor of physics at Stanford's School of Humanities and Sciences. "Our discovery shows that the most interesting things turn out to be surprises sometimes."

The Stanford researchers inadvertently made their discovery while trying to reproduce a finding that was sending shockwaves through the physics community. In early 2018, Pablo Jarillo-Herrero's group at MIT announced that they had coaxed a stack of two subtly misaligned sheets of carbon atoms -- twisted bilayer graphene -- to conduct electricity without resistance, a property known as superconductivity.

The discovery was a stunning confirmation of a nearly decade-old prediction that graphene sheets rotated to a very particular angle should exhibit interesting phenomena.

When stacked and twisted, graphene forms a superlattice with a repeating interference, or moiré, pattern. "It's like when you play two musical tones that are slightly different frequencies," Goldhaber-Gordon said. "You'll get a beat between the two that's related to the difference between their frequencies. That's similar to what you get if you stack two lattices atop each other and twist them so they're not perfectly aligned."

Physicists theorized that the particular superlattice formed when graphene is rotated to 1.1 degrees causes the normally varied energy states of electrons in the material to collapse, creating what they call a flat band where the speed at which electrons move drops to nearly zero. Thus slowed, the motions of any one electron becomes highly dependent on those of others in its vicinity. These interactions lie at the heart of many exotic quantum states of matter.

"I'm the most successful person ever to run for the presidency, by far. Nobody's ever been more successful than me. I'm the most successful person ever to run. Ross Perot isn't successful like me. Romney - I have a Gucci store that's worth more than Romney."

President Trump.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 26,600 +51 Up. NASDAQ: 8,006 +70 Down. SP500: 2,942 +50 Up. 

The S&P has reversed again to up after only one month. The Dow has reversed to up, while the NASDAQ remains down.  On to next month’s numbers for clarification.

Tuesday 30 July 2019

Trade War Talks Resume. The Cowed Fed Meets.

Baltic Dry Index. 1922 -15   Brent Crude 64.04

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe.  93 days away.
Nuclear Trump China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

Thu, 07.30.1863

Lincoln issues Eye-For-Eye order

On this date in 1863, President Abraham Lincoln issued what was called an "eye-for-eye" order, warning the Confederacy that Union soldiers would shoot a rebel prisoner for every black prisoner shot. It also would condemn a rebel prisoner to a life of hard labor for every Black prisoner sold into slavery.

It is day one of the resumed trade war talks between America and China. Day one of the Trump cowed Fed meeting in Washington, District of Crooks.

There are low expectations on the trade war talks in Shanghai. High expectations that the greatly cowed Fed will cut their key interest rate tomorrow by 25 basis points, possibly even by a half of a percent.

Poking President Trump in the eye by doing nothing is highly improbable. It would likely trigger a 10 percent sell-off in US stock markets. President Trump has staked his re-election prospects to the fate of US stock markets.

In the trade war talks, talk is cheap. China will probably promise to buy some more agricultural goods and possibly some US pork to replace some lost Chinese pork due to the swine flu epidemic. The USA promise to ease up on their technology war against Huawei.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the manufacturing and exports recession grows. Real estate sales are now dropping in to many key leading markets around the world. Like it or not, our global economy has caught a cold, and we still have a clean no-deal Brexit to come, plus a USA v EUSSR trade war against German cars and French wines. Savvy Americans will be stocking up on quality French wines now. Mercs and Beamers not so much.

Below, yet another day in the summer silly season, as we await tomorrow’s action from the Trump Fed.

Asia stocks gain ahead of Fed, pound pressured by fresh Brexit pain

July 30, 2019 / 2:23 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks gained on Tuesday as equity investors prepared for an expected U.S. interest rate cut this week while the pound retreated to a 28-month low as heightened concerns about a no-deal Brexit gripped currency markets.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS gained 0.35%.
The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC rose 0.7%. 

Australian stocks climbed as much as 0.7% to touch a record high, supported by buoyant mining shares and adding to the previous day’s tech-driven gains.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 was up 0.7%, showing little reaction after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as expected on Tuesday.

The BOJ added it would ease “without hesitation” if the economy loses momentum for achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

The U.S. Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday, at which it is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. If implemented, it would be the central bank’s first rate cut in a decade.

Prospective monetary easing by the Fed has been a key factor behind the recent bull run by global equities, particularly U.S. stocks, which have notched up record highs over the past month.

U.S., China move trade talks to Shanghai amid deal pessimism

July 28, 2019 / 11:09 PM
BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators shift to Shanghai this week for their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month, a change of scenery for two sides struggling to resolve deep differences on how to end a year-long trade war.

Expectations for progress during the two-day Shanghai meeting are low, so officials and businesses are hoping Washington and Beijing can at least detail commitments for “goodwill” gestures and clear the path for future negotiations. 

These include Chinese purchases of U.S. farm commodities and the United States allowing firms to resume some sales to China’s tech giant Huawei Technologies.

President Donald Trump said on Friday that he thinks China may not want to sign a trade deal until after the 2020 election in the hope that they could then negotiate more favourable terms with a different U.S. president.

“I think probably China will say “Let’s wait,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “Let’s wait and see if one of these people who gives the United States away, let’s see if one of them could get elected.”

For more than a year, the world’s two largest economies have slapped billions of dollars of tariffs on each other’s imports, disrupting global supply chains and shaking financial markets in their dispute over China’s “state capitalism” mode of doing business with the world.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at last month’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, to restart trade talks that stalled in May, after Washington accused Beijing of reneging on major portions of a draft agreement — a collapse in the talks that prompted a steep U.S. tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

Trump said after the Osaka meeting that he would not impose new tariffs on a final $300 billion of Chinese imports and would ease some U.S. restrictions on Huawei if China agreed to make purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

As trade war bites, China's factories set for third month of shrinking activity - Reuters poll

July 30, 2019 / 5:49 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Factory activity in China is expected to have contracted for the third month in a row in July, a Reuters poll showed, underlining the intensifying strains on the world’s second-biggest economy from a protracted trade war with the United States.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July is set to have edged up to 49.6 from June’s reading of 49.4, according to the median forecasts of 34 economists. That still left it below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction on a monthly basis. 

Another month of weak manufacturing activity is likely to fuel expectations for Beijing to add to a flurry of support measures put in place over the past year, especially as the Sino-U.S. trade war drags on and becomes costlier.

“A cooling property market, suppressed by official policy, and a slowing global economy have further knocked China’s manufacturing sector last month,” said Nie Wen, economist at Hwabao Trust.

China observers have said that Beijing’s recent growth-boosting measures will take time to filter through to the broader economy, and many analysts are of the view that further stimulus is needed to prevent a deeper downturn and to help stabilise growth.

Growth in Asia’s powerhouse economy slowed to a 27-year low in the second quarter, showing just why policymakers from India to Australia to Europe and the United States are worrying about the China-effect on global output.

Sluggish demand at home and abroad has led to a months-long spell of depressed activity for China’s manufacturers, and a sharp U.S. tariff hike announced in May threatens to crush already-thin profit margins.

Some manufactures have cut this year’s sales target as clients delay purchase orders in a wait-and-see approach, while others have already relocated their production capacity to neighbouring countries to avoid the tariff hit.

Profits earned by China’s industrial firms contracted in June after briefly gaining the previous month. Earnings at these big firms have been softening since the second half of 2018 due to the broadening economic pressures, with many putting off business decisions and scaling back manufacturing investment.

The official PMI and its sister survey on the services sector will be released on Wednesday, the second day of U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators’ meeting in Shanghai for their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month.

Finally, the USA is back to deficits don’t matter again, ready to borrow and spend itself into prosperity, and this is under the Republicans. Just wait until Democrat Socialists get into the White House. They’ll probably sell off what’s left of the USA’s gold holdings to China and Russia.

Federal Borrowing Soars as Deficit Fear Fades

The Treasury expects to sell over $1 trillion in debt this year; issue has little traction in 2020 race

By Kate Davidson Updated July 29, 2019 7:24 pm ET
WASHINGTON—Borrowing by the federal government is set to top $1 trillion for the second year in a row as higher spending outpaces revenue growth and concern about budget deficits wanes in Washington and on Wall Street.

The Treasury Department said Monday it expects to issue $814 billion in net marketable debt in the second half of this calendar year, bringing total debt issuance to $1.23 trillion in 2019. That would represent a slight decline from borrowing in 2018, when the Treasury issued $1.34 trillion in debt—more than twice as much as the $546 billion it issued in 2017.

The budget gap for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 is on course to exceed $1 trillion, following the 2017 tax cuts that constrained federal revenue and a previous two-year budget deal that raised spending nearly $300 billion above spending caps Congress enacted in 2011.

The new budget agreement congressional leaders announced last week effectively pushed the issue of government spending off until after the 2020 election.

Concerns about rising deficits and debt have been absent from the presidential campaign trail, in contrast to previous election cycles.

The tea party rose to prominence amid a budget austerity drive that consumed Washington in the early part of the decade, leading to the 2011 deal in Congress to impose spending caps. Worries about rising borrowing costs in the early 1990s led to sweeping bipartisan budget deals during the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations, putting the budget in the black for the first time since 1969.

But political support for taming deficits faded in recent years, with Republicans supporting higher deficits in exchange for tax cuts and Democrats pushing for more spending on domestic programs.

The current bipartisan budget agreement, set for approval by the Senate this week, would boost federal outlays and suspend the government’s borrowing limit for two years, adding further to annual deficits into the future. It would lift spending $44 billion above fiscal year 2019 levels, or 3.5%, not including emergency war funding or one-time funding for the 2020 census.

Without a new deal, automatic spending cuts would have reduced discretionary spending—the part of the budget Congress can adjust each year—by 10% in 2020, weighing on economic growth.

The agreement removes a key source of economic uncertainty heading into the presidential election year, though economists said the modest spending lift is unlikely to translate into higher growth.

The deficit as a share of the economy is set to more than double over the coming decades, due in part to higher spending on Social Security and Medicare.

“Other inflationists realize very well that an increase in the quantity of money reduces the purchasing power of the monetary unit. But they endeavour to secure inflation none-the-less, because of its effect on the value of money; they want depreciation, because they want to favour debtors at the expense of creditors and because they want to encourage exportation and make importation difficult.”

Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Yes, it’s the banksters again. They can resist anything except temptation, it seems. Why do they still have banking licences?

JPMorgan, UBS Among Banks Facing $1 Billion FX-Rigging Suit

By Kaye Wiggins
July 29, 2019, 8:35 AM GMT+1 Updated on July 29, 2019, 9:48 AM GMT+1
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS Group AG are among five banks being sued over allegations of foreign-exchange rigging in a class-action lawsuit seeking more than 1 billion pounds ($1.2 billion).
Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are the other three targets of the U.K. suit that will say pension funds, asset managers, hedge funds and corporations lost out because of market manipulation between 2007 and 2013 and should be compensated.

The lawsuit centers on collusion on foreign-exchange trading strategies, for which the European Commission fined Barclays, RBS, Citigroup, JPMorgan and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. a total of 1.07 billion euros ($1.2 billion) in May. UBS escaped a fine because it was the first to tell regulators about the collusion. Mitsubishi UFJ isn’t being sued in the civil case.

Traders ran two cartels on online chatrooms, the European regulator said. Many of them knew each other, calling one chatroom “Essex Express n’ the Jimmy” because all of the traders but one met on a commuter train from Essex to London. Other names for rooms were the “Three Way Banana Split” and “Semi Grumpy Old Men.”

It’s the latest development in a case that’s already triggered regulatory probes around the world, and billions of dollars in fines as well as $2.3 billion in settlements in the U.S. last year. JPMorgan and UBS declined to comment. The other banks didn’t immediately reply to calls or emails seeking comment.

“The message is really clear -- we want markets to work fairly,” said Michael O’Higgins, a pension fund chair who’s spearheading the U.K. suit. “People involved in markets will argue the case for free markets. They’ve got to make sure they’re fair as well as free.”

The case was filed in the Competition Appeal Tribunal in London on Monday by Scott+Scott Europe, a spokesman for the law firm said. Its U.S. arm Scott+Scott Attorneys at Law LLP led the class action that ended with $2.3 billion in settlements.

O’Higgins, who chairs the Local Pensions Partnership, a U.K. public sector pension fund, and the Channel Islands Competition & Regulatory Authorities, said that on a conservative estimate the banks may have to pay out 1 billion pounds if he wins. The lawsuit could take three to five years, he said, and thousands of institutional investors could be in line for payouts if it succeeds.

“The people of the United States are more prosperous…because their government embarked later than other governments…upon the policy of obstructing business”

Ludwig von Mises

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Does one size does fit all? A new model for organic semiconductors

Date: July 24, 2019

Source: Osaka University

Summary: A team including researchers has used a single rubrene crystal to investigate the room temperature behavior of organic single crystals, and in so doing have dispelled previously-held assumptions based on inorganic semiconductor behavior. It is hoped that these insights into the specific behavior of organic conducting materials will accelerate the development of flexible conducting devices with high functionality.

Organic materials that can conduct charge have the potential to be used in a vast array of exciting applications, including flexible electronic devices and low-cost solar cells. However, to date, only organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) have made a commercial impact owing to gaps in the understanding of organic semiconductors that have limited improvements to charge carrier mobility. 
Now an international team including researchers from Osaka University has demonstrated the mechanism of charge mobility in an organic single crystal. Their findings are published in Scientific Reports.

In an effort to improve the charge carrier mobility in organic crystals, significant attention has been focused on understanding how the electronic structure of organic single crystals allows for the movement of charge. Analyzing highly ordered single crystals instead of samples that contain many defects and disorders gives the most accurate picture of how the charge carriers move in the organic material.

The researchers analyzed a single crystal of rubrene, which, owing to its high charge mobility, is one of the most promising conducting organic material. However, despite the popularity of rubrene, its electronic structure is not well understood. They found that theory-based conclusions reached in previous work were inaccurate because of molecular vibrations at room temperature that are a consequence of the flexibility of the material.

"We have demonstrated a new mechanism that is not observed for traditional inorganic semiconductor materials," study corresponding author Kazuyuki Sakamoto explains. "Inorganic semiconductors such as silicon, which are widely used in electronics, are generally hard, inflexible materials; therefore, certain assumptions made for these materials do not translate to organic conducting materials that are more flexible."

The successful preparation of an ultra-high-quality single rubrene crystal sample allowed experiments to be carried out that provided a definitive comparison with previous data. The experiments highlighted the limitations of previous assumptions and revealed the influence of other factors such as electron diffraction and molecular vibrations.

"By reliably demonstrating the room temperature behavior of an organic conducting material and reframing the thinking behind previous conclusions that have been drawn, we have provided a much clearer basis for research going forward," Professor Sakamoto explains. "We hope that this insight will accelerate the development of flexible conducting devices with a wide range of exciting functions."

July 30, 1914 - Austrian warships bombard Belgrade, capital of Serbia, from the River Danube.

July 31, 1914 - Reacting to the Austrian attack on Serbia, Russia begins full mobilization of its troops. Germany demands that it stop.

August 1, 1914 - Germany declares war on Russia.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 26,600 +51 Up. NASDAQ: 8,006 +70 Down. SP500: 2,942 +50 Up. 

The S&P has reversed again to up after only one month. The Dow has reversed to up, while the NASDAQ remains down.  On to next month’s numbers for clarification.