Baltic Dry Index. 1816
+39 Brent
Crude 66.92
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
The stock market
crash in October 1929 didn't destroy a particularly large amount of wealth or
make people highly pessimistic. Rather, it made companies and consumers very
unsure about future income, and so led them to stop spending as they waited for
more information.
Christina Romer
Will the Trump stock
bubble finally burst when the Trump Fed surrender at month-end, and cut their
key interest rate by a half percent? I don’t know either but to this old
dinosaur market watcher since 1968, buying stocks in the face of a coming
global recession is madness.
The Fed cutting
interest rates here by a quarter or a half percent is madness too. Fuelling the
Trump bubble, pumping stocks higher will just lead to bigger bust when it all
goes wrong. The Trump Fed is gambling
here that it can keep that bubble growing all the way past next year’s November
election. I don’t think that they can. But were that to happen at what mal-investment
cost?
Below, the end of
another silly season week.
Asian shares dart between gains and losses before key China data
July 12, 2019 /
2:17 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Asian shares veered between small losses and gains on Friday as investors
awaited key China trade and lending data, and as worries over Sino-U.S. trade
tensions countered optimism rooted in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate
cut this month.
Later on Friday, China will release June trade data, with analysts
expecting exports to have fallen as weakening global demand and a sharp hike in
U.S. tariffs took a heavier toll on the world’s largest trading nation.
China is also due to release lending data on Friday, while
second-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for Monday. The world’s second-largest
economy is expected to have slowed to its weakest pace in at least 27 years,
raising hopes for more stimulus to fend off a sharper slowdown.
“You’ve got key data coming out, and I don’t see why anyone would want
to take a position until you’ve got that data,” said Michael Every, head of
Asia-Pacific financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong.
More
An economy gone ‘mad?’ The Fed is going to cut interest rates despite record stock prices, low unemployment
By Jeffry
Bartash Published: July 11, 2019 4:47 p.m. ET
The Fed has abandoned its usual road map in the era of Trump
It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad world. Or so one might believe looking at the
U.S. economic picture.
Consider: Stocks are hitting record highs and layoffs and unemployment
are at 50-year lows. Yet the Federal Reserve is prepared to cut interest rates
soon because it’s worried about the economy.
Such it is in the era of Trump. The president, who’s demanded the
independently run central bank cut rates, is probably going to get his wish.
And largely because his very own policies are what have the Fed worried.
The central bank frets that White House trade clashes with China and
other countries have hurt farmers, manufacturers and exporters, crimped
business investment and slowed the U.S. economy.
The global economy has fared even worse with the fate of so many countries tied to China.
“Global growth has slowed,” said Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The various trade disputes and tariff hikes have created uncertainty that makes it more difficult for businesses to commit to investment.”
If that’s not enough, a divided Congress could hit another impasse this fall that leads to a government shutdown or a freeze in federal spending. Both would be bad news for the economy.
That’s why Fed Chairman Jerome Powell isn’t really focused on the economy itself — it’s doing OK, actually. He’s nervous about what economists like to call internal or external “shocks.” A trade war certainly qualifies as one.
Hence his willingness to reduce a key interest rate at the end of July.
Not everyone is impressed. Many economists are skeptical that a small reduction in already low interest rates will do anything to spur borrowing or help the economy. Credit is cheap and readily available, and it has been for years.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-economy-gone-mad-the-fed-is-going-to-cut-interest-rates-despite-record-stock-prices-low-unemployment-2019-07-11?mod=mw_theo_homepage
In technology news, another first for Trump’s nemesis Huawei.
China's Huawei unveils 1st 5G smartphone in Kuwait
Source: Xinhua| 2019-07-12 04:18:57
KUWAIT CITY, July 11 (Xinhua) -- Chinese technology and smartphone giant
Huawei unveiled its first 5G-enabled smartphone HUAWEI Mate 20 X on Thursday to
Kuwaiti consumers.
At the launch event held in the Avenues Mall in Farwaniya Governorate,
the largest shopping mall of Kuwait, Jiang Guang'ao, general manager of
Consumers BG Kuwait Representative Office, said the HUAWEI Mate 20 X is a
revolution in technology and innovation in the world.
"This event enables customers to enjoy the best-in-class
performance and best 5G network with ultra-high speed and low latency
services," he said.
The Huawei Mate 20 X will be available in Kuwait from July 18.
Haidar Ali, 24, who works in the marketing department of a Kuwaiti
communication company, told Xinhua that the new Huawei smartphone that supports
5G has really great features.
"I tried it and it's really great with high-speed service. I
recommend people to try it," Ali said.
Fahad Mhawesh, a 29-year-old salesman, said the Mate 20 X is the first
high-speed smartphone that reached Kuwait where the 7.2-inch screen is best for
gamers and can be used as tablets.
"I came to the event to see the 5G smartphone. It's amazing that it
supports the new technology and has the whole package in one place,"
Mohammad Foad, a 22-year-old student, expressed his excitement.
In
other news, America readies for yet another rain event as a slow moving
tropical storm is about to make landfall later today or early Saturday morning.
July 12, 2019
Tropical Storm Barry strengthens, set to unload feet of flooding rain along the Gulf Coast
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Hurricane warnings have been issued, a state of emergency has been
declared in Louisiana, the National Guard activated and mandatory evacuations
have been ordered in some places along the Louisiana coast as Tropical Storm
Barry formed over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. But in New Orleans,
neither mandatory nor voluntary evacuations will be ordered, as the city's
mayor advised residents to shelter in place.
Although Tropical Storm Barry is not forecast to become a hurricane
before landfall, it will unload feet of rain along the Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared Barry the second named
storm of the Atlantic hurricane season with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph
and it was moving west at 3 mph.
Around 4 p.m. CDT, the NHC declared a hurricane warning for portions of the Louisiana coast from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
Barry is forecast to make landfall along the Louisiana coast Friday night or Saturday as a potent tropical storm. However, it is not out of the question for it to strengthen into a hurricane just before making landfall.
---- "Our greatest concern is for torrential rain that would result in life-threatening flooding," Kottlowski said.
"Heavy, flooding rainfall is expected over a large area, especially
over much of eastern Louisiana into parts of southern and central Mississippi
and parts of southeastern Arkansas."
Rainfall totals will average 10-18 inches with an AccuWeather Local
StormMax™ of 24 inches.
The rainfall amounts assume a steady track. However, should the storm stall over the Deep South, rainfall amounts could be higher.
More
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-barry-forecast-to-unload-feet-of-flooding-rain-along-the-gulf-coast/70008788
Tropical Storm Races Toward Louisiana, Curbing Oil Output
By Brian K Sullivan
Updated on July 12, 2019, 2:35 AM GMT+1
·
·
Half of Gulf oil output is shut; New Orleans
faces deluge
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-10/workers-evacuate-gulf-of-mexico-rigs-as-storm-gathers-strength?srnd=premium-europe
Finally,
will Vietnam or Mexico win Trump’s trade war with China?
Why Vietnam Loves Donald Trump
Tariffs are changing supply chains, not cutting the trade deficit.
The Editorial BoardJuly 10, 2019 7:07 pm ET
Call it Make Southeast Asia Great Again, as exporters from Vietnam in particular are reaping the rewards of U.S. tariffs. While Chinese goods exports to the U.S. fell 12.3% year-over-year from January through May, Vietnam saw a 36.4% increase, according to U.S. Census data. Taiwan had a nearly 22.5% year-over-year increase in the same five months, more than triple the increase from 2017-18. South Korean exports to the U.S. increased 12.4% over the period.
If there is a further “global escalation of the trade conflict,” says a December Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, Vietnam could gain 2.1% of GDP while Malaysia would gain 0.5% and Taiwan 0.4% as a result of trade redirection and changing global supply lines.
Created with Highcharts 6.0.4Trading PlacesThe percentage change in goods exports to the U.S. fromselect countries in U.S. dollar value from Jan.-May 2019compared with the same period in 2018Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Created with Highcharts 6.0.4ChinaSouth KoreaTaiwanVietnam-20%-10010203040
Some of this export uptick is likely transshipment, a practice by which Chinese exports are sent to a third country before shipment to the U.S. to circumvent tariffs. A recent Journal report found that Vietnamese imports of computers and electronics from China surged alongside a similar increase in the country’s exports of the same categories to the U.S.
The scale of the illegal practice is unclear, but there’s also evidence of a legitimate supply-chain shift. Apple is the latest example. Chinese assembly accounts for most of the company’s production, and Mr. Trump last year encouraged Apple to move operations to the U.S. as an “easy solution” to tariffs. Yet Nikkei Asian Review reported in June that Apple is considering moving 15% to 30% of its production capacity from China to Southeast Asia or Mexico.
Apple
has long-established supply chains in China that won’t be easy to re-create in
smaller economies, but the company may calculate that production in Kuala
Lumpur is still cheaper than Kentucky. Mr. Trump’s tariffs are disrupting
efficient supply chains without benefitting Americans.
More
Smoot and Hawley
ginned up The Tariff Act of 1930 to get America back to work after the Stock
Market Crash of '29. Instead, it destroyed trade so effectively that by 1932,
American exports to Europe were just a third of what they had been in 1929.
World trade fell two-thirds as other nations retaliated. Jobs evaporated.
Elaine Chao
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more on that not so easy to win trade war with China. Time to
pick on easier to win Europe, perhaps.
Trump team fears new face on China trade team signals tougher stance
The Trump administration is increasingly concerned about prospects for a trade deal with China, amid an unexpected reshuffling of the Chinese negotiating team and a lack of progress on core issues since the Group of 20 summit in Japan, according to U.S. officials and senior Republicans briefed on the discussions.Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, regarded by some White House officials as a hard-liner, has assumed new prominence in the talks, participating in a Tuesday teleconference alongside Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who has headed the Chinese trade team for more than a year.
Hopes for a deal also have been dented by China’s failure to make large new purchases of U.S. farm products — despite President Trump’s claim at the G-20 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to place such orders “almost immediately” — and the lack of any announced schedule for the next round of direct talks.
Zhong’s sudden emergence comes two months after the U.S.-China trade negotiations collapsed with the Trump administration accusing Beijing of having reneged on a preliminary agreement.
“This has to be seen as a loss of confidence in Liu He and the desire of the leadership to bring in someone more politically savvy,” said Dennis Wilder, a former China analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. “I am sure his instructions are to get tougher with the U.S.”
In an effort to revive the stalled trade talks, Trump agreed at the G-20 summit to postpone new tariffs on $300 billion in imports from China and to allow Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications company that U.S. officials call a national security threat, to continue buying American computer chips.
Trump told his trade team before the Tuesday call to secure the new Chinese orders for soybeans and wheat he believed he had been promised in Osaka, Japan. But Zhong and Liu offered no specific commitments, leaving negotiations at a virtual standstill, according to a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the official was not authorized to speak publicly.
The administration also has yet to reach agreement with the Chinese government on dates for chief trade negotiator Robert E. Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to visit Beijing for the next round of direct talks, though U.S. officials said they remain optimistic such a meeting will happen.
Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said administration statements about how the president’s shift on Huawei would be implemented have been “confusing to American companies” and reflected a broader lack of follow-through to the discussions in Osaka. “All of the things they spoke of — none of them have happened,” said Allen, who added that he worries about an erosion of trust between the United States and China.
U.S. officials and Trump allies have privately expressed concern this week that the Chinese are digging in and avoiding firm commitments.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
On-demand control of terahertz and infrared waves
Date:
July 9, 2019
Source:
Université de Genève
Summary:
A theory from 2006 predicts that it should be possible to use graphene in a
magnetic field not only to absorb terahertz and infrared light on demand but
also to control the direction of the circular polarization. Researchers have
succeeded in testing this theory and achieved the predicted results. The study
shows that the scientists found an efficient way to control infrared and
terahertz waves.
The ability to control infrared and terahertz waves using magnetic or
electric fields is one of the great challenges in physics that could revolutionise
opto-electronics, telecommunications and medical diagnostics. A theory from
2006 predicts that it should be possible to use graphene -- a monoatomic layer
of carbon atoms- in a magnetic field not only to absorb terahertz and infrared
light on demand but also to control the direction of the circular polarisation.
Researchers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), Switzerland, and the
University of Manchester have succeeded in testing this theory and achieved the
predicted results. The study, to be published in the journal Nature
Nanotechnology, shows that the scientists found an efficient way to control
infrared and terahertz waves. It also shows that graphene is keeping its
initial promises, and is making its way to be the material of the the future,
whether on earth or in space.
"There exist a class of the so-called Dirac materials, where the
electrons behave as if they do not have a mass, similar to the light particles,
the photons," explains Alexey Kuzmenko, a researcher in the Department of
Quantum Matter Physics in UNIGE's Science Faculty, who conducted this research
together with Ievgeniia Nedoliuk. One of such materials is graphene, a
monolayer of carbon atoms arranged in honeycomb structure, analogue to graphite
used, in particular to make pencils.
The interaction between graphene and light suggests that this material
could be used to control infrared and terahertz waves. "That would be a
huge step forward for optoelectronics, security, telecommunications and medical
diagnostics," points out the Geneva-based researcher.
---- The results demonstrated for the first time that a colossal magneto-optical effect occurs indeed if a layer of pure graphene is used. "The maximum possible magneto-absorption of the infrared light is now achieved in a monoatomic layer," says Alexey Kuzmenko.
In addition, the physicists found that it was possible to choose which
circular polarisation -- left or right -- should be absorbed. "Natural or
intrinsic graphene is electrically neutral and absorbs all the light, regardless
of its polarisation. But if we introduce electrically charged carriers, either
positive or negative, we can choose which polarisation is absorbed, and this
works both in the infrared and terahertz ranges," continues the scientist.
This ability plays a crucial role, especially in the pharmacy, where certain
key drug molecules interact with light depending on polarization direction.
Interestingly, this control is considered promising for the search of life on
exoplanets, since it is possible to observe the signatures of the molecular
chirality inherent in the biological matter.
Finally, the physicists found that to observe a strong effect in the
terahertz range, it is sufficient to apply magnetic fields, which could be
generated already by inexpensive permanent magnet .
Now that the theory has been confirmed, the researchers will continue to
work on magnetically adjustable sources and detectors of terahertz and infrared
light. Graphene continues to surprise them
Another weekend,
and GB suddenly has a top job opening for someone in Washington, District of
Crooks. Must be diplomatic, fawning,
smarmy, servile, and willing to lose endlessly at golf. Not too sure if the
person, male or female, has to be British, but it probably helps. Kindness to
grumpy OAPs too, is a vital requirement. (No not me, that other one.) Suggestions to Her Majesty’s Deputy Foreign Minister,
Foreign Office, London. The top man’s too busy at present, trying to become
P.M.
Have a great
weekend everyone.
The
most likely way for the world to be destroyed, most experts agree, is by
accident. That’s where we come in; we’re computer professionals. We cause
accidents.
Anon.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: 26,600 +51 Up. NASDAQ: 8,006 +70 Down.
SP500: 2,942 +50 Up.
The S&P has reversed again to up after only one month. The Dow has
reversed to up, while the NASDAQ remains down. On to next
month’s numbers for clarification.
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