Baltic Dry Index. 2011
+83 Brent
Crude 64.55
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
On this
day in 1821 Spain ceded Florida to the USA following a treaty negotiated in
1819. America finally took total control of Florida.
This summer, more
than most, it seems a good time to this old dinosaur market follower, to exit
stocks for cash. At present, there are just too many balls being juggled in the
air, one of them is sure to be dropped.
Into a slowing global
economy, we have rising political tensions from east to west, and a rapidly
deteriorating political picture in Washington D. C.
With a no deal, clean
Brexit still to come, plus a USA v EU trade war next up on President Trump’s
agenda, it’s a time for capita preservation rather than risk. Return of capital
rather than return on capital.
Below, more reasons to
sit this summer out.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian markets pull back as trade tensions resurface
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: July 16, 2019 11:38 p.m. ET
Asian markets slipped in early trading Wednesday as trade
tensions between the U.S. and China rose to the forefront again.Following reports Monday that trade negotiations could resume soon, President Donald Trump threw water on investors’ optimism Tuesday, saying “We have a long way to go” before any deal. Trump added that he could impose tariffs on another $325 billion of Chinese imports if he wants to.
Separately, amid reports that the Trump administration may soon allow some U.S. companies to resume business with Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies Co., bipartisan legislation was introduced in the Senate that would block Huawei from being removed from the government’s blacklist without congressional approval.
---- “President
Trump’s renewed threat of more tariffs on Chinese goods has investors bracing
for weak trading in the Asian session today, tracking the negative sentiment in
the U.S. overnight,” ING economists Nicholas Mapa and Prakash Sakpal said in
their report.
More
South Korea-Japan trade fight risks ‘further escalation’
South Korea’s Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki said at a regular briefing Wednesday that his government was “working on comprehensive plans to reduce the country’s dependence on Japan’s materials, components and equipment industries.”
Relations between the two countries deteriorated on July 1, when Tokyo imposed restrictions on exports of three high-tech materials to South Korea, which are critical for manufacturing semiconductors. Japan also removed South Korea from its “white country” list — nations deemed to have trustworthy export control systems.
One of those materials, hydrogen fluoride, was reportedly shipped to North Korea after it was exported to the South. Seoul has denied those allegations.
“I think that unfortunately ... the
probability of further escalation, you know, I think is quite likely,” Jesper
Koll, senior advisor at WisdomTree Investments told CNBC last Thursday.
Koll said that the tensions are a build-up of years of discontent and “the latest rulings by the supreme courts in Korea really just tipped things over.”
He was referring to a South Korea Supreme Court ruling last year, which ordered Japanese company Mitsubishi to compensate forced labor victims during Japan’s colonial occupation. The ruling drew a strong rebuke from Japan, which said the matter was already settled under a 1965 treaty.
Seoul has asked Tokyo to scrap the curbs on chemical materials used in making semiconductors, but that request was rejected. South Korea’s trade ministry said Sunday it plans to raise the issue at the World Trade Organization’s general council meeting on July 23 to 24, according to a Reuters report.
More
Japan-South Korea dispute is called 'disturbing and unhelpful' for the global economy
Tokyo and Seoul have long had political disagreements stemming from Japan’s conduct during the second World War. The dispute between the neighbors spilled into the economic arena when Japan earlier this month restricted exports of materials critical to South Korea’s high-tech industry, citing national security concerns.
Japan and South Korea are large exporters of products such as chips and smartphone displays. An escalated trade fight between the two could be bad news for the global technology industry and consumers may end up having to pay more for products.
“This development that we’re seeing now is disturbing and unhelpful for the global economic sentiment. To begin with, we already have so much around the trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world,” Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Group Research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.
More
Singapore's June exports tumble more than expected
By Saurabh
Chaturvedi Published: July 16, 2019
11:10 p.m. ET
Singapore's key non-oil domestic exports fell more than expected in
June, weighed by both electronics and non-electronics exports.
Exports of goods made in Singapore fell 17.3% on year in June, compared
with a revised decrease of 16.3% in May, government agency Enterprise Singapore
said Wednesday.
Exports were expected to contract 9.4% on year, based on the median
estimate from a Wall Street Journal poll of seven economists.
Exports fell 7.6% on month seasonally adjusted, after rising a revised
5.8%in May. The poll of economists had projected June exports would fall 3.5% on
month.
Electronics exports fell 31.9% on year in June while non-electronics
shipments were down 12.4%. Exports of pharmaceuticals fell 11.3% on year, after
rising 28.5% in May.
Exports to China, one of the biggest foreign markets for domestic goods,
fell 15.8% on year, following a 23.3% fall in May. Exports to the European
Union fell 22.1% while shipments to the U.S. were 1.5% higher.
German investor morale darkens on trade disputes, Iran tensions
July 16, 2019 /
10:13 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The mood among German investors deteriorated more
sharply than expected in July, a survey showed on Tuesday, with the ZEW
institute pointing to the unresolved trade dispute between China and the United
States as well as political tensions with Iran.
ZEW said its monthly survey showed economic sentiment among investors
fell to -24.5 from -21.1 in June. Economists had expected a less severe drop to
-22.3.
A separate gauge measuring investors’ assessment of the economy’s
current conditions plunged to -1.1, the lowest level since June 2010.
The weak reading bodes ill for the German economy which is expected to
post only meagre growth of 0.5 percent this year.
ZEW President Achim Wambach said the pessimism among German investors
was probably driven by the continued slide in incoming orders for German
industry.
German industrial orders fell far more than expected in May, data
released earlier this month showed, with the government warning manufacturing
would remain weak in the coming months.
More
China says Trump 'misleading' people linking trade deal, slowing economy
July 16, 2019 /
8:42 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China on Tuesday rebuffed a suggestion from U.S.
President Donald Trump that Beijing needs a trade deal with the United States
because its economy was slowing, saying this was “totally misleading” and that
both countries wanted an agreement.
Trump, in a Monday tweet, seized on slowing economic growth in China as
evidence that U.S. tariffs were having “a major effect” and warned that
Washington could pile on more pressure.
Official data on Monday showed China’s economic growth cooled to 6.2% in
the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade
pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3
percent compared with a year earlier.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said China’s first-half
pace was a “not bad performance” considering global economic uncertainty and
slowing world growth, and in line with outside expectations.
China’s stable growth is good for the world and also the U.S. economy,
Geng told a daily news briefing.
“As for United States’ so-called ‘because China’s economy is slowing so
China urgently hopes to reach an agreement with the U.S. side’, this is totally
misleading,” he added.
“Reaching a trade and economic agreement is absolutely not a one-sided
desire of China’s. The U.S. side also has this desire.”
Many people in the United States strongly oppose the tariffs and the
trade war, Geng said.
“I again call on the U.S. side to work hard with China, meet each other
halfway, and on the basis of mutual respect and treatment, strive to reach a
mutually beneficial, win-win agreement. This accords with the interests of both
countries and is what the international community expects.”
More
In other more political
news, North Korea warns the USA not to break its commitments. USA v Iran confusion.
North Korea warns it may start testing missiles again
By Mark Moore July 16, 2019 | 9:18am
North Korea warned the US that breaking its promise and
holding military exercises with South Korea next month would jeopardize nuclear
talks and could result in the regime resuming missile tests.
”With the U.S. unilaterally reneging on its commitments, we are gradually losing our justification to follow through on the commitments we made with the U.S.,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday in a statement released through state media.
President Trump, at his first summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in Singapore last June, said he would halt the “war games” as the two leaders continued negotiations to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.
Pyongyang has complained for years that the joint military operations were just a preparation for an invasion.
“It is crystal clear that it is an actual drill and a rehearsal of war aimed at militarily occupying our Republic by surprise attack,” a North Korean spokesman said, adding that Trump re-emphasized they would be halted in last month’s meeting with Kim.
Trump kick-started talks between the two countries when he met with Kim at the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas and became the first sitting president to step into North Korea.
Negotiations that were expected to continue in weeks are now at risk.
“We will formulate our decision on the opening of the DPRK-U.S. working-level talks, while keeping watch over the U.S. move hereafter,” a North Korea spokesman said, using the initials of North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
The last long-range missile test by North Korea occurred in November 2017, but it has conducted test-firings of shorter-range rockets since.
U.S., Iran send conflicting signals on their disputes
July 16, 2019 /
3:13 PM
WASHINGTON/DUBAI
(Reuters) - Iran and the United States sent mixed signals on Tuesday about
resolving their disputes as Iran’s supreme leader threatened to further breach
the 2015 nuclear deal while the U.S. president cited “a lot of progress.”
Tensions have
risen since U.S. President Donald Trump last year abandoned the major powers’
nuclear deal with Iran under which Tehran agreed to curtail its nuclear
programme in return for the lifting of global sanctions crippling its economy.
Iran’s supreme leader on Tuesday said Tehran would keep removing
restraints on its nuclear activity in the deal - struck with Britain, China,
France, Germany Russia and the United States - and retaliate for the seizure of
an Iranian oil tanker.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ultimate authority, accused Britain,
Germany and France of failing to uphold obligations under the deal to restore
Iranian access to global trade, especially for Tehran’s oil exports blocked by
U.S. sanctions.
“According to our foreign minister, Europe made 11 commitments, none of
which they abided by. We abided by our commitments and even beyond them. Now
that we’ve begun to reduce our commitments, they oppose it. How insolent! You
didn’t abide by your commitments!” Khamenei said, according to his website.
“We have started to reduce our commitments and this trend shall continue,”
Khamenei said in remarks carried by state television.
United Nations nuclear inspectors last week confirmed Iran is now
enriching uranium to 4.5% fissile purity, above the 3.67% limit set by its
deal, the second breach in as many weeks after Tehran exceeded limits on its
stock of low-enriched uranium.
The level at which Iran is now refining uranium is still well below the
20% purity of enrichment Iran reached before the deal, and the 90% needed to
yield bomb-grade nuclear fuel. Low-enriched uranium provides fuel for civilian
power plants.
More
Finally, in other news, with a heat wave
building across northeast America, will New York City face more power cuts? Accidental
or weaponised? On the better side of north American weather, the Atlantic
hurricane season has just entered the mid-season lull, where conditions usually
don’t favour hurricane formation until about mid August.
Hottest weather of season on tap for Northeast as record-challenging heat wave builds
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist July 16, 2019
As heat expands across the northeastern United States, highs near the century mark will be common, with some locations experiencing dangerously high AccuWeather ReelFeal Temperatures well above 100 F -- but not before what's left of Barry sweeps through with localized flooding downpours.While temperatures may be briefly held back in areas that receive a thorough drenching for a day or so, intense July sunshine, combined with a northward retreat of the jet stream will allow an impressive heat wave to build even for midsummer standards.
In the northern U.S., a heat wave is generally that which brings three or more days in a row with highs of 90 F.
"The combination of sunshine, temperature, humidity levels and other factors will push AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures well into the danger level past 105 degrees during the late morning and afternoon hours," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
"Actual temperatures in some of the major cities, such as Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City are likely to peak within a few degrees of the century mark at the peak of the heat wave this weekend," Anderson said.
At this level temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above average even for the middle of the summer.
"Cooling demands will surge with the intense heat wave," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
Among the cities that could break or challenge records on Saturday is Manchester, New Hampshire, which is forecast to hit the century mark. The daily record high in Manchester for July 20 is 94 F set in 1949. Manchester's all-time record is 103, set on July 22, 2011.
Further south, Newark will challenge its daily record of 100 degrees. The mercury is forecast to soar to 101 there on Saturday. As hot as it will be this weekend in the New York City area, the Big Apple's all-time high temperature record of 106, set on July 9, 1936, is not in danger of falling. With a forecast high of 100, Philadelphia could shatter its daily high of 97 on Saturday.
Washington, D.C., will also swelter with a forecast high of 102, however the nation's capital shouldn't break its daily and all-time high of 106 hit on July 20, 1930, about 12 years after the mercury hit 106 in 1918.
Other spots on the East Coast that will feel the heat and challenge records on Saturday include Atlantic City, New Jersey, which is forecast to hit 100, a temp that would break its record of 98 for the day, and Richmond, Virginia, which is forecast to hit 100. Its record for the day is 101.
---- The temperature of paved and concrete surfaces can be dozens of degrees higher than the air temperature. Not only does this contribute to a buildup of excessive heat in urban areas, but can be a safety hazard.
The hot pavement can also burn the bare feet of young children and pet's
paws.
Motorists on the highway are reminded to reduce their speed during
extremely hot weather. Driving at high speed, excessive braking and weaving in
and out of traffic during very hot weather can cause the tire temperature to
exceed manufacturer's safety limits and lead to a blowout.
More
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hottest-weather-of-season-on-tap-for-northeast-as-record-challenging-heat-wave-builds/70008824
Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.John Kenneth Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
No crooks today, at least not the usual kind.
They’ll be back tomorrow. Today news of something a little different.
Porsche's circular 7.8 mile Nardò test track reopens
16 July 2019
Porsche's
perfectly circular 12.6 km (7.8 mile) test track at Nardò in Southern Italy has
been renovated and is again open for business. Far more than just the massive
banked high speed test track, the Nardò Technical Center contains over 20 test
tracks on an area of more than 700 hectares, and has been used by 90 automotive
companies for testing in the past.
Opened in 1975, the high-speed circular track was created so that car
companies could test their cars under the most extreme conditions, and has been
the venue for a number of famous record attempts over the years.
Purchased by Porsche in 2012, the facility has been closed for
renovation over the last six months, during which 35 million euros has been
spent resurfacing the circular track and upgrading numerous other facilities
within the complex.
One of
the few test tracks in the world suitable for extreme speeds, the perfectly
circular banked test track has four lanes, with increasing camber on each lane.
The inner lane is suitable for speeds up to 130 km/h with no steering input
required, and the speeds increase to 170 km/h, 210 km/h and 240 km/h respectively.
Most
famously, the Nardò facility has been used for a number of records over the
years, including the first time that mankind lapped any course at over 400 km/h
in 1979, when a Mercedes-Benz C111-IV completed a lap of the 12.6 km circuit in
1 minute and 57 seconds, averaging 403.978 km/h. The previous world record
average speed for a lap of any circuit had been established in 1975 at 355.854
km/h by a 1,000 hp racing car during the American Can-Am series.
Mercedes-Benz has been a regular customer of Nardò, using it for numerous long distance records including launching the 190 E 2.3-16 by setting several world long-distance records over 25,000 kilometers, 25,000 miles, and 50,000 kilometers, with average speeds of almost 250 km/h at Nardò.
In 1980 a Volkswagen ARVW set the speed record for a diesel car at Nardò, reaching a speed of 362.07 km/h.
Prior to purchasing the Nardò facility, Porsche was also a regular visitor, covering 6,033 kilometers in 24 hours in 928 S in 1982 at an average speed of 251.4 km/h, then again in 1993 when a 928 GTS traveled 6,377.25 km in 24 hours at an average speed of 265.72 km/h.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Fluorine speeds up two-dimensional materials growth
By spatially confining fluorine, scientists could activate feeding gases while disabling its harmful effects
Date:
July 15, 2019
Source:
Institute for Basic Science
Summary:
By spatially confining fluorine, scientists could activate feeding gases while
disabling its harmful effects. To put this rate in perspective, this new
approach reduces the time of growing a 10 cm2 graphene from 10 minutes with
previous methods, now down to only 3 minutes.
Back in 2004, the physics community was just beginning to recognize the
existence of truly two-dimensional (2D) material, graphene. Fast forward to
2019, scientists explore a breadth of different 2D materials, expecting to
uncover more of their fundamental properties. The frenzy behind these new 2D
materials lies in their fascinating properties: materials thinned down to only
a few atoms work very differently from their 3D version. Electrons packed into
the thinnest-ever layer show distinctive characteristics apart from being in a
"loose net." Also being flexible, 2D materials could feature
distinctive electrical properties, opening up new applications for
next-generation technologies, such as bendable and wearable devices.
Then, what is the catch? Many parameters such as temperature, pressure,
precursor type, and flow rate need to be factored into the CVD synthesis of 2D
materials. With multiple reactions involved, it is extremely difficult to
optimize all these factors during the reactions and find their best
combinations. That being said, 2D material synthesis is hardly controllable.
Scientists have tried to accelerate the growth of 2D materials by adopting
different substrates, feedstocks, or temperature.
Still, only a few types of 2D
materials can be synthesized into large area high quality films.
Scientists from the Center for Multidimensional Carbon Materials (CMCM),
within the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) at the Ulsan National Institute of
Science and Technology (UNIST), in cooperation with researchers at Peking
University (PKU), and University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
(UESTC), demonstrated that fluorine, having the strongest tendency to attract
electrons (i.e. electronegativity) in all elements, can speed up the chemical
reaction to grow three representative 2D materials; graphene, h-BN, and WS2.
Fluorine requires only one electron to attain a high stability. Also, having
seven electrons in the outermost orbit of an atom, the distance at which these
valence electrons reside is the minimum compared with other elements. This
means the valence electrons of fluorine are bound to the atom more strongly
than any other atom making fluorine the most active element in the periodic
table.
In fact, active gases such as hydrogen or oxygen are broadly used to
tune the growth of graphene and other 2D materials. "Why not then the most
active element, fluorine? The highest electronegativity allows fluorine to form
bonds with nearly all the atoms in the periodic table, so it is expected to
change the reaction routes of many chemical processes," said Professor
Feng Ding, the corresponding author of this study.
More
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: 26,600 +51 Up. NASDAQ: 8,006 +70 Down.
SP500: 2,942 +50 Up.
The S&P has reversed again to up after only one month. The Dow has
reversed to up, while the NASDAQ remains down. On to next
month’s numbers for clarification.
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