Baltic Dry Index. 2170
+40 Brent
Crude 63.20
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
"The stock market is a giant distraction to the business
of investing."
John
Bogle
Given all that’s
going on and wrong in the world, billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio thinks it’s time to own some
gold. Who am I to disagree.
The latest signal that we’re very near or passing the top, comes from
yet another gambling casino opening in China, this one modeled on America’s Nasdaq, famously and wrongly once calling itself, “the stock
market for the next hundred years.” It wasn’t, of course, nor will China’s
version be.
In the real world, we have a stand off with Iran to solve
without starting a new Middle East war. A growing global manufacturing and
exports collapse, suggesting that the world economy may already be heading into
recession and deflation. A continuing trade war between America and China. A
new just starting trade war between Japan and South Korea, and new China
tariffs on stainless steel from the EU, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.
Still to come a clean no-deal Brexit, and a new USA v EUSSR
trade war in the autumn.
All in all, a time to be exiting stocks in favour of cash
and some fully paid up physical gold, and I would also suggest silver.
Below, a new greater fools stock market arrives.
"Pundits forecast not because they know, but because they
are asked."
John
Kenneth Galbraith
Circuit breakers trip as China's Nasdaq-style bourse debuts
July 22, 2019 /
3:00 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Trading hit a feverish pitch on China’s new Nasdaq-style board for homegrown
tech firms on its debut on Monday, with most stocks surging and drawing
attention away from the main board.
All of the first batch of 25 companies - ranging from chip-makers to biotech firms - more than doubled their already frothy IPO prices on the STAR Market, operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Trading in Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co Ltd (688019.SS), a semiconductor firm, was halted twice as the company’s shares hit two circuit breakers - first after rising 30%, then after climbing 60% from the market open - designed to calm frenzied buying.
By the midday break, Anji shares had leapt 415% from their IPO price.
Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co Ltd (688022.SS), however, triggered its circuit breaker in the opposite direction, falling 30% from the market open, before rebounding. But by midday the company’s shares were still 113% higher than their IPO price.
Monday’s spiraling share prices and high volatility on the STAR Market were anticipated as investors chased the new board, said Zhu Junchun, chief analyst with Lianxun Securities.
Investor focus on the STAR Market in the short term could weigh on the main board in terms of liquidity and attention, he said.
That effect was clear on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC dipping 0.57% by midday, and the blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 trading flat.
More
Oil gains as Middle East Gulf tensions flare, Libya field shut
July 22, 2019 /
2:13 AM
SINGAPORE/TOKYO
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday on concerns that Iran’s seizure of a
British tanker last week may lead to supply disruptions in the Middle East and
after Libya reported the shut down of its largest oil field.
Brent crude futures climbed 85 cents, or 1.4%, at$63.32 a barrel by 0404
GMT. The international benchmark rose by $1 earlier.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 47 cents, or 0.8%,
at $56.10 a barrel.
WTI fell over 7% and Brent fell more than 6% last week.
“Falling global demand and rising U.S. stockpiles have helped turn
oil charts very bearish, but that may not last as tensions remain high in the
Persian Gulf,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, said in
a note.
---- Crude oil supply outages and curbs also helped lift prices higher.
“Oil prices got a small boost this morning after Libya’s (NOC) declared
force majeure on Sharara crude loaded at Zawiya port,” said Stephen Innes,
managing partner at Vanguard Markets.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared a force majeure on
Saturday at the country’s largest oilfield, El Sharara, after it was shut down
the previous day causing a production loss of about 290,000 barrels per day
(bpd).
Meanwhile, data late last week showed shipments of crude oil from Saudi
Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, fell to a 1-1/2 year low in May.
More
China to impose anti-dumping tax on stainless steel from Indonesia, EU, Japan, South Korea
July 22, 2019 /
3:00 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Monday it will impose
anti-dumping duties on some stainless steel products imported from the European
Union, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. Anti-dumping tariffs of 18.1% to 103.1% will be applied to stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates from companies in the EU and the three Asian nations, effective July 23, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.
The decision follows an anti-dumping probe in July last year after a complaint filed by state-owned Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel (000825.SZ).
“The investigation agency has made a final decree that there was dumping
of the investigated products and it has caused substantive damage to the
industry in China,” said the commerce ministry in the statement.
Stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates are mainly
used as raw material to make cold-rolled stainless steel products or used in
shipbuilding, containers, rail, power and other industries.
China, the world’s largest stainless steel producer, churned out 26.71
million tonnes of stainless steel products in 2018, up 2.4% from a year ago,
according to China’s Stainless Steel Association.
The country imported 1.85 million tonnes of stainless steel products
last year, up 53.7% from 2017.
'Canary in the coal mine': Singapore woes ring trade alarm bells
Date
created : 21/07/2019 - 04:40
A plunge in exports and the worst growth rates for a decade have fuelled
concerns about the outlook for Singapore's economy, with analysts saying the
figures offer a warning that Asia is heading for a slowdown as China-US
tensions bite.
While it may be one of the smallest countries in the world, the export
hub is highly sensitive to external shocks and has long been viewed as a
barometer of the global demand for goods and services.
The affluent city-state is highly dependent on trade and has
traditionally been one of the first places in Asia to be hit during global
downturns -- with ripples typically spreading out across the region.
The latest signs are not good. In June exports collapsed 17.3 percent
from a year earlier, the fastest decline in more than six years, led by a fall
in shipments of computer chips.
That followed a shock 3.4 percent quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP
in the second quarter. Year-on-year growth came in at just 0.1 percent, the
slowest pace since 2009 during the global financial crisis.
"Singapore is the canary in the coal mine," Song Seng Wun, a
regional economist with CIMB Private Banking, told AFP. "And what it tells
us is that it is a tough environment."
----While steadily weakening growth in China is partly to blame for a
slowdown in exports, analysts say the trade war between the US and China, the
world's two biggest economies, has dramatically worsened the situation.
Beijing and Washington have slapped each other with punitive tariffs
covering more than $360 billion in two-way trade.
- 'No winners in trade war' -
While Singapore -- a transit point for products heading to and from
Western markets as well as the Asian base for manufacturers of some hi-tech
goods -- may be showing the strain most, negative data has emerged throughout
the region.
Exports have been slipping across Asia. In India they plummeted 9.7
percent in June, in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, they dropped
8.9 percent in the same month while in South Korea they slipped 10.7 percent in
May.
Governments have slashed economic growth forecasts, and gauges in
several countries measuring activity in the manufacturing and services sectors
paint a bleak picture.
Central banks are moving to spur domestic consumption, with Indonesia
and South Korea cutting interest rates Thursday, the latest in Asia to lower
borrowing costs.
Singapore's central bank is seen as likely to ease monetary policy at an
October meeting, and some economists are predicting the country could fall into
recession next year.
"There are no winners in this trade war. While most of the
attention has focused on the trade conflict between China and the United
States, the damage has not been confined to these two economies," business
consultancy IHS Markit said in a commentary.
"Exports from Asia's key emerging and advanced countries have taken
hits in the first half of 2019."
- Exports in the doldrums -
The US-China tensions have upended the complex supply chains that
underpin the modern system of global trade.
They have hit Chinese demand for raw materials and other goods that were
traditionally sent to the country to be manufactured into finished products and
shipped on to other markets, including the US.
More
JPMorgan exec warns 10-year Treasury yield is `headed to zero’
Central banks will cut borrowing costs to
nothing in response to threats ranging from the global trade war to tepid
inflation, says chief investment officer Bob Michele.
Jul 19, 2019 @ 12:21 pm EDT
Bob Michele, who in April told investors to enjoy the ride in
risk assets, is now looking to ride U.S. Treasury yields “all the way down to zero.”
For Treasury 10-year notes, “I think that’s where we’re headed over the
next couple of years,” Mr. Michele, chief investment officer and head of global
fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, said Thursday. “The rally in bonds
hasn’t even begun yet.”
Central banks will succumb to threats ranging from the global trade war
to tepid inflation and cut borrowing costs to nothing, Mr. Michele said. His
colleagues on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s advisory side made a similar call this
week, saying the global pile of negative-yielding debt is becoming a
tar pit that will eventually suck in the U.S. government bond market.
We’re in a trade war, you’re seeing the impact on corporate earnings,
you’re seeing the central banks forced to scramble to react to that,” Mr. Michele
said. “We’ve had the recovery, it’s coming to an end and now the central banks
one after another are falling into line and cutting rates. At this point in the
cycle you need some shock and awe.”
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was at 2.05% Thursday morning in
New York, after the bonds halted a rally that had sent the 10-year yield to its
lowest close in more than two years at 1.9498% on July 3.
Mr. Michele changed his bullish call on credit in June and
switched to government bonds instead, saying the “future looks pretty bleak.”
More
Ray Dalio adds to the chorus touting gold
Banks including Goldman, Citigroup and
Merrill have boosted their forecasts for the precious metal in the past month.
Jul 19, 2019 @ 12:51 pm EDT
Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio sent ripples through the gold
market this week when he advised buying the metal, but he’s part of a bigger
wave.
In the past month, banks including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan
Stanley have raised their forecasts for bullion or touted its prospects, while
holdings in exchange-traded funds linked to gold rose to a six-year high.
Richard Hayes, chief executive at Australia’s Perth Mint, said buying by
central banks is adding to the enthusiasm.
Bullion is getting more attention from institutional investors as the
prospect of slowing economies, lower interest rates and rising global tensions
drives demand for the metal as a store of value. Gold, which benefits from low
rates because it doesn’t pay interest, has since late May generated the best
returns in the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
----According to Mr. Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, stimulus from central banks that’s helped bolster asset prices is nearing its limit and having diminishing effects on economies. Such stimulus will lead to more negative real and nominal returns, spurring investors to seek alternative forms of money such as gold or other stores of wealth, Mr. Dalio said this week in a LinkedIn post.
He sees a “paradigm shift” coming in the next few years as an enormous amount of debt and nondebt liabilities such as pension and health care comes due and can’t be funded with assets. That will lead to “some combination of large deficits that are monetized, currency depreciations, and large tax increases,” Mr. Dalio said.
Assets “that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold,” Mr. Dalio said
More
https://www.yourwealthmatters.com/ray-dalio-adds-to-the-chorus-touting-gold/
"
The ideal business is one that earns very high returns on capital and that keeps using
lots of capital at those high returns. That becomes a compounding machine."
Warren Buffett
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, who’d have thought it? Some crooks have found ways around Trump’s
tariffs.
Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
Cary
Grant. To Catch A Thief
US importers find ways to adapt to, skirt Trump's tariffs
Date
created : 21/07/2019 - 03:34
Big US companies are accelerating efforts to move more of their supply
chains from China to neighboring countries in light of Trump administration
tariffs.
Companies in sectors such as technology, clothing and footwear are
exporting more goods from emerging giants including Vietnam and Malaysia, data
show.
At the same time, the shift has exposed the murkiness of trade export
rules, putting a premium on lawyers expert in the minutiae of US customs rules.
"We have a lot of questions from our members," said Sage
Chandler, vice president of international trade at the Consumer Technology
Association. "Companies are trying to find ways to avoid having to pay 25
percent."
Some companies may be pushing the envelope a little too much, violating
US rules against "transhipments," the routing of China-made goods
through other countries to evade tariffs, legal experts say.
- Speeding shift from China -
President Donald Trump since last year has slapped 25 percent duties on
$250 billion worth of Chinese imports and threatened additional levies on all
other Chinese items coming to the United States -- though the two sides agreed
last month to hold their fire for now.
Trump's trade measures have led some multinationals to fortify their
North American operations and others to transfer some manufacturing capacity
from China to any number of countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia,
the Philipines, Bangladesh, India and Ethiopia.
Exports of computers and electronics from Vietnam to the United States
have risen 71.6 percent in the first five months of 2019 compared with the
year-ago period, according to government data.
The pattern has also held for other machines and equipment, with exports
from Vietnam rising 54.4 percent over that period.
Even before Trump targeted China on trade, US companies had been
reducing their dependence on China because of increasing production costs and
elevated transport expenses compared with other Asian countries.
But the trade war has sped up those moves.
Ralph Lauren has "accelerated the diversification of our supply
chain to mitigate the long-term impact of any potential tariff outcomes,"
said a spokesperson for the clothing company, adding that tariffs have so far
not hit the company's goods.
Xcel Brands, which owns Isaac Mizrahi, Judith Ripka and other fashion
houses, will cease manufacturing in China in 2020, a big shift from two years
ago when the country was the source of 100 percent of its merchandise.
The company has moved clothes-making operations to Vietnam, Cambodia and
Bangladesh, and is exploring adding capacity in Central America, Mexico and
Canada.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
First-ever visualizations of electrical gating effects on electronic structure
Date:
July 17, 2019
Source:
University of Warwick
Summary:
Scientists have visualized the electronic structure in a microelectronic device
for the first time, opening up opportunities for finely-tuned high performance
electronic devices.
Scientists have visualised the electronic structure in a microelectronic
device for the first time, opening up opportunities for finely-tuned high
performance electronic devices.
Physicists from the University of Warwick and the University of
Washington have developed a technique to measure the energy and momentum of electrons
in operating microelectronic devices made of atomically thin, so-called
two-dimensional, materials.
Using this information, they can create visual representations of the
electrical and optical properties of the materials to guide engineers in maximising
their potential in electronic components.
The experimentally-led study is published in Nature today (17
July) and could also help pave the way for the two dimensional semiconductors
that are likely to play a role in the next generation of electronics, in
applications such as photovoltaics, mobile devices and quantum computers.
The electronic structure of a material describes how electrons behave
within that material, and therefore the nature of the current flowing through
it. That behaviour can vary depending upon the voltage -- the amount of
'pressure' on its electrons -- applied to the material, and so changes to the
electronic structure with voltage determine the efficiency of microelectronic
circuits.
These changes in electronic structure in operating devices are what
underpin all of modern electronics. Until now, however, there has been no way
to directly see these changes to help us understand how they affect the
behaviour of electrons.
By applying this technique scientists will have the information they
need to develop 'fine-tuned' electronic components that work more efficiently
and operate at high performance with lower power consumption. It will also help
in the development of two dimensional semiconductors that are seen as potential
components for the next generation of electronics, with applications in
flexible electronics, photovoltaics, and spintronics. Unlike today's three
dimensional semiconductors, two dimensional semiconductors consist of just a
few layers of atoms.
Dr Neil Wilson from the University of Warwick's Department of Physics
said: "How the electronic structure changes with voltage is what
determines how a transistor in your computer or television works. For the first
time we are directly visualising those changes. Not being able to see how that
changes with voltages was a big missing link. This work is at the fundamental
level and is a big step in understanding materials and the science behind them.
"The new insight into the materials has helped us to understand the
band gaps of these semiconductors, which is the most important parameter that
affects their behaviour, from what wavelength of light they emit, to how they
switch current in a transistor."
----Dr Xiaodong Xu, from the Department of Physics and the Department of Materials Science & Engineering at the University of Washington, said: "This powerful spectroscopy technique will open new opportunities to study fundamental phenomena, such as visualisation of electrically tunable topological phase transition and doping effects on correlated electronic phases, which are otherwise challenging."
The research was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council, part of UK Research and Innovation, and the U.S. Department
of Energy and the National Science Foundation.
"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are
so many legal ways to be dishonest. “
Al
Capone
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: 26,600 +51 Up. NASDAQ: 8,006 +70 Down.
SP500: 2,942 +50 Up.
The S&P has reversed again to up after only one month. The Dow has
reversed to up, while the NASDAQ remains down. On to next
month’s numbers for clarification.
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