Friday 10 May 2024

Stocks To Infinity And Beyond? Rate Cuts Coming!

Baltic Dry Index. 2166 -37      Brent Crude  84.41

Spot Gold 2365           US 2 Year Yield 4.80  -0.04

 

It is a well known and very important fact that America's founding fathers did not like taxation without representation. It is a lesser known and equally important fact that they did not much like taxation with representation.

John Kenneth Galbraith

In the stock casinos, tomorrow will be like today which was like yesterday. We will all get super rich buying up stocks, frontrunning the coming central bankster interest rate cuts.

 

Stock prices, to infinity and beyond.

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 

Asia markets track Wall Street gains amid renewed U.S. rate cut hopes; Hong Kong stocks hit 9-month high

UPDATED FRI, MAY 10 2024 12:37 AM EDT

Hong Kong led Asia-Pacific stocks on Friday as markets tracked Wall Street gains, with renewed hopes for rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve bolstering market sentiment.

The Hang Seng index hit its highest level in nine months, up 1.62% after Bloomberg reported regulators were considering a proposal to exempt individual investors from paying taxes on dividends earned from Hong Kong stocks bought via Stock Connect.

In contrast, the mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 0.28%.

Elsewhere, Japan’s overall household spending in March fell 1.2% year on year, less than the 2.4% expected by a Reuters poll of economists. However, on a month-on-month basis, household spending rose 1.2%, compared with estimates of a 0.3% drop.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.66%, while the broad-based Topix was 0.74% higher.

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.73%, but the small cap Kosdaq slipped 0.58%.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 also inched up 0.33%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes climbed as fresh weekly jobless claims data came in at the highest level since August, raising expectations that central bankers might cut interest rates at some point this year.

The 30-stock Dow jumped 0.85% to notch its longest win streak since a nine-day run in December. The S&P 500 added 0.51%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.27%.

Asia markets live updates: Japan trade, Japan household spending (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are little changed after Dow notches seven-day win streak: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, MAY 10 2024 7:57 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its longest win streak going back to December.

Futures linked to the 30-stock Dow rose by 49 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%.

Wall Street is coming off a positive session for the major averages. The blue-chip Dow advanced 0.85%, registering a seventh straight day of gains in the benchmark’s best showing since a nine-day win streak in December. The S&P 500 gained 0.51%, closing above 5,200 for the first time since early April. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.27%.

Investors have been more optimistic lately after the Federal Reserve indicated the next move is unlikely to be a hike, pointing to a cap on interest rates that could be bullish for equities. A strong earnings season, as well as some softer labor data, have also bolstered confidence in the stock outlook.

“What’s important in all of this context is, ‘are we in the early stages of a long-term bull market or not?’” Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer of Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “It feels comfortable saying it on a day like this, but we are, in our opinion.”

Stocks were on pace for a winning week as of Thursday’s close. The Dow has gained 1.8%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were higher by 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively.

A slate of central bank officials are scheduled to speak Friday, including Fed presidents Lorie Logan of Dallas, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will also make an appearance.

On the economic front, May consumer sentiment data that’s due out Friday is expected to ease slightly to 76.0, down from 77.2.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Bank of England holds interest rates steady, but signals a cut is coming

PUBLISHED THU, MAY 9 2024 7:07 AM EDT

LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday announced a widely-expected hold on interest rates following its May meeting, as it said restrictive monetary policy was working to bring down inflation.

Members of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold, with the latter favoring a cut. In the prior meeting only one member voted for a cut.

The MPC nonetheless cautioned that indicators of inflation persistence “remain elevated.”

It keeps the BOE’s key Bank Rate at 5.25%.

Market anticipation is building for interest rate cuts to begin in the summer, with money markets fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction in August and 50 basis points overall this year.

Some economists see a cut as soon as the next meeting in June, and three or more cuts in 2024. That is largely because U.K. headline inflation is forecast to drop dramatically in April due to lower energy prices from the current 3.2% to below the BOE’s 2% target, according to some projections.

“While [economic] growth is increasing, the labor market continues to loosen. Ultimately, we think that will feed into weaker wage growth. We do expect that to come down across the course of this year,” Matthew Swannell, U.K. economist at BNP Paribas, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.

“As well as that we see other costs coming down, particularly non-labor costs and those related to energy, passing through the supply chain and lowering services and goods prices, ultimately helping the Bank of England get inflation back towards the 2% mark.”

Bank of England holds interest rates steady, but signals a cut is coming (cnbc.com)

In other news.

Japan's consumer spending extends declines as outlook weakens

By Satoshi Sugiyama and Tetsushi Kajimoto 

TOKYO, May 10 (Reuters) - Japan's consumer spending fell for the 13th straight month in March, creating challenges for policymakers who are seeking to drive stronger real wage growth, a prerequisite for additional central bank rate hikes.

Household spending fell 1.2% in March from a year earlier, official data released on Friday showed, against economists' median forecast for a 2.4% drop and following a 0.5% decline in February.

On a seasonally adjusted, month-on-month basis, spending increased 1.2%, much bigger than an estimated 0.3% contraction and a 1.4% rise in February.

The weak figures came a day after labour ministry data showed real wages shrinking two years in a row, as the rising cost of living outpaced nominal wages despite the biggest pay hikes in about three decades.

Weak household consumption is a source of concern for policymakers who want to see sustained economic growth led by strong wage hikes and solid consumer spending.

Separate data on Friday showed Japan's current account surplus widened to 3.40 trillion yen ($21.9 billion) in March.

That compared with economists' median forecast for a surplus of 3.49 trillion yen in a Reuters poll.

For the fiscal year that ended March, Japan's current account surplus was a record 25.339 trillion yen, reflecting a trade surplus, cooling commodity prices and hefty gains in primary income from direct investment overseas.

Japan's consumer spending extends declines as outlook weakens | Reuters

Finally, yet more bad EV news.

 

Porsche Taycan: Urgent recall over battery fire fears for luxury brand's Car of the Year EV range

By JAMES DOWLING FOR NCA NEWSWIRE

Porsche's leading electric car has been hit with an urgent recall notice by the federal transport department over battery issues.

 

The department has issued the recall on Porsche Taycan models Y1A, Y1B and Y1C for the year range 2019-2023, citing a risk of fire from the faulty batteries.

There only 19 such registered vehicles in Australia, with a list of identifications available on vehiclerecalls.gov.au.

Cell modules in the high voltage battery leaves the vehicles prone to short circuiting that could trigger overheating and a vehicle fire.

Owners of the affected cars can arrange free repair of the issue through their nearest official Porsche dealer.

Prior to the servicing, owners are warned to limit battery charging to 80 per cent or less.

'A vehicle fire could increase the risk of injury or death to vehicle occupants, other road users and bystanders, and/or damage to property,' the recall memo said

The Taycan debuted in 2020 as the company's first electric car and made up 7.4 per cent of the retailer's sales that year.

It was commended with What Car? magazine's Performance Car of the Year award in 2021.

Porsche Taycan: Urgent recall over battery fire fears for luxury brand's Car of the Year EV range | Daily Mail Online

Delay petrol ban beyond 2035, says Sir Jim Ratcliffe

May 9, 2024

Sir Jim Ratcliffe has called for the ban on all petrol car sales to be delayed beyond 2035, as the British industrial tycoon warned that demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has “dried up”.

The billionaire behind petrochemicals giant Ineos is lobbying the UK Government to relax net zero laws so that low-emission vehicles can be sold even after the planned cut-off point, as an “interim” step towards cleaner technologies.

This could include electric cars fitted with petrol-powered range extenders as well as plug-in hybrids that rely on their batteries most of the time.

Sir Jim’s intervention comes amid a wave of criticism of the Government’s net zero stance from some of the world’s biggest carmakers, including Ford and the owner of Vauxhall.

It is understood that the tycoon’s car brand, Ineos Automotive, which is itself preparing to launch an EV with a range-extender, has held meetings with the Government about the issue.

Writing for The Telegraph, Sir Jim blames consumer “range anxiety” – the fear they will run out of battery and be unable to charge – for a slowdown in EV sales, arguing that plans to make carmakers go all-electric by 2035 are “barmy”.

The 71-year-old, whose empire includes Manchester United football club as well as the Grangemouth oil refinery, a major supplier of petrol, adds: “Electric is fine and dandy for the short local journey, but should you decide to head off for the hills, forget it. 

In recent weeks, major carmakers including Volkswagen, Ford and Vauxhall owner Stellantis have publicly vented their frustration at laws requiring them to sell ever-higher proportions of EVs regardless of consumer demand.

Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis, claimed measures such as the UK’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate were “crashing into reality” as sales of EVs stall across Europe.

More

Delay petrol ban beyond 2035, says Sir Jim Ratcliffe (msn.com)

Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government.

Milton Friedman.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

'When will Remainers apologise?' Brexiteer hails booming UK trade after EU exit

May 8, 2024

A Brexiteer has urged Remainers to apologise for doom-laden warnings of a "trade disaster" if the UK left the EU.

Tory MP Sir John Redwood highlighted official figures showing Britain exported £862billion of goods and services in the 12 months to February 2024.

The former minister also listed a series of other trade wins including joining the bumper Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade bloc.

In a post on his website, Sir John said: "Remain tried to make out Brexit was mainly about trade. It was of course mainly about taking back control, giving us the right to make our own laws, set our own taxes and spend our own money.

"They also asserted it would damage our trade to leave. They said we would not even be able to roll over all the EU trade deals we were part of.

"Treasury, bank, much of the civil service and Remain parties pushed out these lies continuously.

"The Treasury famously summed up its conclusions by saying wrongly that leaving would 'push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment'.

"Their severe shock scenario meant an extra 800, 000 unemployed and a 6 percent fall in GDP."

On what happened after Brexit, he went on: "After the vote unemployment fell and the economy grew. Trade went up.

"The UK did roll over all the EU trade deals into UK trade deals and in some cases negotiated improvements to them.

"The UK went on to agree a trade deal with the Trans Pacific Partnership countries.

"The UK also at some needless political cost signed a trade agreement with the EU.

"The Government has recently released figures for what has happened to our trade since the vote and since we left. Our service exports have doubled since 2014 to non-EU countries (2016 was a little up on 2014) and risen by more than a half since 2016 to the EU.

"The UK is now the second largest exporter of services worldwide after the USA. We are now adding service sector chapters to trade deals which the EU was unwilling to do.

"Total exports are up from under £600million in 2016 to £862billion in the year to February 2024. They are up by a third to the EU and by considerably more to the rest of the world."

In a post on X, Sir John added: "When will Remain experts, officials and MPs apologise for all those wrong forecasts of trade disaster if we voted no?"

'When will Remainers apologise?' Brexiteer hails booming UK trade after EU exit (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

New 'FLiRT' COVID-19 Variants Are Spreading: All About Symptoms, Treatment, And How To Protect Yourself

May 8, 2024

With warm weather finally within reach, a new set of COVID-19 variants, given the nickname FLiRT, has been found in wastewater surveillance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported.

On Wednesday, the CDC said the FLiRT variants were appearing in wastewater sampling. They found that from April 14 through April 27, FLiRT has made up about 25% of the cases in the United States, and are behind 1 in 4 Covid cases in the US, per the CDC.

With it's rapid infection rate in a two-week span, it's now the dominant variant in the United State, out numbering JN.1, the variant that spread all over the world throughout the winter, according to CDC research.

So what are these new FLiRT variants and what do their symptoms look like? Ahead, everything to know about the new COVID-19 variant called FLiRT and how to protect yourself from infection.

The FLiRT variants, KP.2 and KP.1.1, are part of the Omicron family. Specifically, they are descendants of JN.1.11.1, a by-product of JN.1—the most common variant until these new ones popped up, per Prevention.

Since they are new, there isn't too much information about how these variants work yet. However, research has found a few changes in KP.2's spike protein compared to JN.1, according to Prevention. 

---- The CDC says symptoms of COVID-19 FLiRT include:

  • Fever or chills
  • Cough
  • Sore throat
  • Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
  • Fatigue
  • Muscle or body aches
  • Headache
  • New loss of taste or smell
  • Congestion or runny nose
  • Nausea or vomiting
  • Diarrhea

It's important to note that as new COVID-19 variants spread, the symptoms can vary by person.

More

New 'FLiRT' COVID-19 Variants Are Spreading: All About Symptoms, Treatment, And How To Protect Yourself (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Finnlines rolls out fuel and emissions reducing hull coating

The ferry operator will apply the GIT Coatings XGIT-FUEL to vessels in its ro-ro and ro-pax fleets after a seven per cent reduction in fuel consumption and emissions 

 08 MAY 2024

Finnlines is to roll out a graphene-based hard foul release hull coating across its ro-ro and ro-pax fleets following a seven per cent reduction in fuel consumption and emissions on four of its vessels treated with the GIT Coatings XGIT-Fuel hull coating. 

The first Finnlines vessel was treated with XGIT-Fuel in 2022. Since then, three more vessels have been treated with the low-friction hull coating, reducing fuel consumption and emissions by around seven per cent (compared to previously used coating) thanks to reduced vessel drag. 

A biocide-free, hard foul release coating, XGIT-Fuel offers an alternative to conventional anti-fouling and soft-foul release hull coatings. It incorporates graphene to reduce vessel drag, enhance resistance to mechanical damage, and it can be cleaned without affecting the surface of the coating. Its application requires only one layer and, as it can be applied in temperatures from -5 to 40°C, vessels can be upgraded during scheduled for winter drydocking. 

“Our commitment to sustainability is at the forefront of every decision we make,” said Thomas Doepel, vice president and deputy CEO at Finnlines. “By integrating XGIT-Fuel into our fleet, we are not only reducing costs and advancing our environmental goals but also setting a new standard in the industry for environmental responsibility.” 

Finnlines rolls out fuel and emissions reducing hull coating (cruiseandferry.net)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.    

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and a summer of central bankster interest rate cuts lies directly ahead. And in the stock casinos, they all lived happily ever after (well maybe.) Have a great weekend everyone.

Truth has anciently been called the first casualty of war. Money may, in fact, have priority.

John Kenneth Galbraith.


Thursday 9 May 2024

Stocks More of The Same. BOE Up To Bat. More Brazil Rains.

Baltic Dry Index. 2083+207    Brent Crude  82.69

Spot Gold 2319           US 2 Year Yield 4.84  +0.02

 

Economists have much to be humble about.

Paul Samuelson. (And central banksters, GI.)

In the stock casinos, it’s still a game of frontrunning the expected interest rate cuts by the central banks.

 

Up today, “the Old bag Lady of Threadneedle Street,” the BOE. No change is expected today, but their guidance, if any, on June will be crucial.

 

Almost no one in the casinos are focused on the now spreading flooding in south Brazil, now affecting next door Uruguay and what it might mean later this year on food price inflation.

Below this morning’s stocks casinos coverage and a misprint I think in the CNBC coverage. Does CNBC have a mole inside the Bank of England?


Asia shares steady after solid China trade data, yen stable

By Stella Qiu 

SYDNEY, May 9 (Reuters) - Asian shares steadied on Thursday after solid Chinese trade data added to signs domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy is picking up, while the yen stabilised after three days of declines as Japan talked up potential currency interventions.

Later in the day, the Bank of England (BoE) will decide its interest rate policy, with all eyes on the prospects of a June rate cut following the overnight move by Sweden's Riksbank to cut rates, which underlined Europe's divergence from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) orose 0.1%, hovering not far from a 15-month high hit earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a stance for policy easing later this year.

Investors will be focusing on the U.S. consumer inflation data for April due next Wednesday after three straight prints of upside surprises for a better sense of the direction of the Fed's policy.

Chinese customs data showed that imports jumped 8.4% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for a rise of 4.8%, while the gain in exports met forecasts.

That helped Chinese shares build on earlier gains, with bluechip stocks (.CSI300) orising 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI)  increasing 1.2%.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225)  rose 0.5%. Nasdaq stock futures eased 0.1%, dragged lower by Uber (UBER.N), which fell 5.7% overnight as the ride-sharing company issued a downbeat forecast after a surprise quarterly loss.

"A first rate cut by the Riksbank has not been enough to further push the bullish sentiment. Eyes are on the Bank of England," said analysts at ING in a note to clients.

"Since Powell's dovish stance just last week, markets will listen carefully for a similar direction as the Fed. This also means that markets may face a surprise if a similar turn towards more dovishness is not reflected in this BoE meeting."

More

Asia shares steady after solid China trade data, yen stable | Reuters

 

European markets head for higher open; BoE rate decision ahead

UPDATED THU, MAY 9 2024 12:29 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a higher open Thursday, maintaining positive momentum in a busy week of earnings.

Ferrovial, Telefonica, EDP, Enel, Pirelli and Salvatore Ferragamo are all due to report today.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England is set to publish its latest interest rate decision Thursday. Although it’s likely (??? Un?) to cut rates this month, investors will be looking out for any signals of a change in position from the central bank’s policymakers.

China stocks rose overnight as its imports surged past estimates and exports rose in line with expectations, while the broader Asia-Pacific market was mixed. Meanwhile, futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline Wednesday evening after the 30-stock index posted its sixth consecutive winning day.

CNBC Pro: ‘Biggest investment opportunity’: Investment manager names stocks to play the copper market

Copper has been on fire, touching $10,000 per ton this week.

Will McDonough CEO of merchant bank Corestone Capital says he has “not seen this level of interest and conversation on copper.”

“Copper is going through some serious spikes and prices are likely to be much higher in the future. I think it is the biggest investment opportunity right now,” he told CNBC Pro, naming stocks he is betting on right now.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

In other news, yet another warning from the IMF.

 

U.S. and China trade divisions threaten a ‘reversal’ for global economy, IMF official warns

PUBLISHED WED, MAY 8 2024 4:32 AM EDT

Differences between U.S.-led Western and China-aligned economic blocs threaten global trade cooperation and economic growth, a top official with the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.  

IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in a speech at Stanford University that events such as the global pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have disrupted global trade relations in ways not seen since the Cold War. 

“Increasingly, countries around the world are guided by economic security and national security concerns in determining who they trade with and invest in,” she said, adding that this has resulted in countries increasingly picking sides between China and the U.S. 

While strengthening economic resilience is “not necessarily bad,” the trend of fragmentation threatens a move away from a “rules-based global trading system” and a “significant reversal of the gains from economic integration,” Gopinath said.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing have been rising as the U.S. ramps up trade restrictions and sanctions on China, citing national security concerns, while worries over Beijing’s advances in the South China Sea and the rhetoric around Taiwan have also soured sentiment. 

The increasing tension between the world’s two largest economies has been reflected globally, with over 3,000 trade restrictions imposed by countries worldwide in 2022 and 2023, more than triple compared with 2019, according to data compiled by the IMF.

Trade between the China and U.S. blocs has declined compared with trade among countries within the groupings, Gopinath said. The U.S. bloc mainly includes Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, while China-leaning countries include Russia, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, trade between the blocs has dropped by about 12% and foreign direct investments are down by 20% compared with those within the bloc’s constituents.  

China, in particular, has struggled to maintain foreign investment amid increased tensions with the West. Foreign direct investment flows into the country reportedly fell 26% in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier.

While economic fragmentation has yet to reach the same levels as the Cold War, its potential impact is much greater due to the global economy’s higher dependence on trade, according to Gopinath.

If divisions are not bridged, the IMF estimates the economic costs to the world’s GDP could be as high as 7% in the extreme fragmentation scenario. GDP will be hit by about 0.2% in case of mild divisions.

More

U.S. and China trade bloc divisions threaten a 'reversal' for global economy (cnbc.com)

In EV news, did Tesla criminally mislead buyers and investors?

In Tesla Autopilot probe, US prosecutors focus on securities, wire fraud

By Mike Spector and Chris Prentice 

May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. prosecutors are examining whether Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab committed securities or wire fraud by misleading investors and consumers about its electric vehicles’ self-driving capabilities, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems assist with steering, braking and lane changes - but are not fully autonomous. While Tesla has warned drivers to stay ready to take over driving, the Justice Department is examining other statements by Tesla and Chief Executive Elon Musk suggesting its cars can drive themselves.

U.S. regulators have separately investigated hundreds of crashes, including fatal ones, that have occurred in Teslas with Autopilot engaged, resulting in a mass recall by the automaker.

Reuters exclusively reported the U.S. criminal investigation into Tesla in October 2022, and is now the first to report the specific criminal liability federal prosecutors are examining.

Investigators are exploring whether Tesla committed wire fraud, which involves deception in interstate communications, by misleading consumers about its driver-assistance systems, the sources said. They are also examining whether Tesla committed securities fraud by deceiving investors, two of the sources said.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating Tesla’s representations about driver-assistance systems to investors, one of the people said. The SEC declined to comment.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. Last October, it disclosed in a filing that the Justice Department had asked the company for information about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.

The Justice Department declined to comment.

More

In Tesla Autopilot probe, US prosecutors focus on securities, wire fraud | Reuters

 

Tesla “smart summon,” bust. Approx. 6 minutes.

Tesla "Smart Summon" feature FAILS causing 💰THOUSANDS💰 in damage | MGUY Australia

Tesla "Smart Summon" feature FAILS causing 💰THOUSANDS💰 in damage | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Rains return to flooded southern Brazil, interrupting rescues

By Leonardo Benassatto and Debora Ely

PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil, May 8 (Reuters) - Authorities interrupted rescue efforts in flood-ravaged southern Brazil on Wednesday amid more rain and the risk of lightning and stiff winds that threaten to exacerbate a catastrophe that has already killed at least 100 people and left over 163,000 seeking shelter.

The floods that began last week, caused by unusually heavy rains, have destroyed highways and bridges in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which borders Uruguay and Argentina.

"We've lost everything," said Adriana Freitas in state capital Porto Alegre, where the Guaiba River burst its banks and inundated city streets. "It's sad when we see the city, our house, in the middle of the water. It seems like it's over, that the world has ended."

At least 128 people are still missing, the state's civil defense authority said, urging people living close to the Patos lagoon south of Porto Alegre to leave their homes immediately.

Army soldiers used amphibious armored cars to rescue people from flooding in Canoas, just north of the city, where the waters have reached a depth of some three meters (10 ft) and the streets can only be navigated by boat.

---- Brazil's national center for natural disasters warned that the southern area of Rio Grande do Sul state was under "high risk" of more flooding, with rainfall expected to restart after a brief hiatus.

Weather forecaster MetSul said in a statement the region could face more "very large" floods "of serious proportions".

In neighboring Uruguay, storms and flooding have closed highways and left nearly 800 people displaced and over 3,000 people without power, the government said.

In Brazil, many residents in and around Porto Alegre, a city of 1.3 million people, have been living in darkness after power companies cut off electricity for security reasons.

They have faced shortages of products, especially drinking water. Supermarket managers said there was no access for supply trucks or employees trying to get to work. Mineral water sales were restricted in some supermarkets.

Volunteer rescue operations after dark in Porto Alegre were also hampered by looting, with police providing security using boats and even jet skis.

"We are not going out to rescue people at night without an armed escort, because it has become too risky," volunteer Lauro Strogulski told Reuters.

Rains return to flooded southern Brazil, interrupting rescues | Reuters

US inflation will soar if America doesn't undergo reindustrialization, investment manager says

May 7, 2024

Inflation will climb higher if the US economy doesn't reindustrialize its economy, according to investment manager Richard Bernstein.

The Richard Bernstein Advisors CEO pointed to the US's "massive" trade deficit, with the difference between imports and exports clocking in at $773.4 billion last year, according to the Commerce Department

That trade imbalance could lead to trouble for the economy, considering the ongoing trend of deglobalization. World trade has become more fragmented since the pandemic, and rising geopolitical tensions are a sign that the trend is continuing, he said.

That suggests the US needs to reindustrialize its economy or face higher prices as a long-term consequence, he warned.

"It has to happen. If it doesn't … we're going to have tremendous inflation here in the United States," Bernstein said to CNBC on Monday. "We're dependent on the world for everything at a time when globalization is starting to contract. Not a good combination. It changes the story from secular disinflation to secular inflation."

Market commentators have warned that deglobalization could be a major factor keeping inflation elevated for years to come. Billionaire investor Ken Griffin predicted last year that high prices could stick around for decades as fragmented world trade will disrupt supply chains and push up costs for consumers.

Reindustrialization efforts in the US are already underway, with the government offering billions in aid for companies to build new infrastructure and produce key goods, like semiconductors, EVs, and solar panels. More firms are already choosing to manufacture their goods in America, a JPMorgan paper found. 

Bernstein has been calling for a reindustrialization of the US economy over the past decade. In 2012, he published a whitepaper calling for an "industrial renaissance," which would take US manufacturing back to levels recorded in the 50s and 60s. That renaissance will be the predominant theme in the market over the next 10 years, he said in a note earlier this year. 

US inflation will soar if America doesn't undergo reindustrialization, investment manager says (msn.com)

What Does Stagflation Mean for Commodity Prices?

Published: May 07, 2024, 20:42 GMT+01:00

Almost by definition, when inflation accelerates, so does the prices of Commodities.

What a difference a quarter makes. The Federal Reserve rang in 2024 with a bout of optimism that inflation was coming down to their 2% target. But that optimism has now evaporated as the reality of stickier-than-expected inflation becomes more evident.

Fast forward a few months to the present day and the word on everyone’s lips is “Stagflation,” – the combination of below-trend growth and above-target inflation.

Following a string of U.S inflation reports during the first three months of 2024 – which all came in above estimates – concerns are beginning to mount that inflation could prove more difficult to conquer than previously thought.

On top of that, economic growth during the first quarter unexpectedly slowed, rising at an annualized pace of just 1.6% – the weakest pace of growth since the second quarter of 2022 when the economy contracted.

Put another way, that’s a steep slowdown following a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the quarter before that.

There are no prizes for guessing that Commodities tend to be the big winners in inflationary environments. Almost by definition, when inflation accelerates, so does the prices of Commodities.

That’s why it’s no surprise that Google searches of the term “Stagflation” have surged over 600% this month.

Which leads me to the big question: Is Stagflation coming or is it already here?

Only time will tell. However one thing we do know for certain is that savvy traders aren’t waiting around to find out.

According to data tracked by GSC Commodity Intelligence – traders have poured over $970 million into Commodities this month to hedge against a second wave of inflation, but even more importantly – capitalize on a treasure chest of opportunities brewing across the metals, energies and agricultural sectors.

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What Does Stagflation Mean for Commodity Prices? | FXEmpire

‘The era of cheap food is over,’ says Waitrose chief

May 8, 2024

Talk to anybody in the food and farming industry these days and it won’t be long before someone brings up regenerative agriculture. Farming in a more nature-friendly way, reminiscent of pre-war practices, for a long time “regen” has been bracketed as a niche, hippy pursuit.

But with our crops under water, olive oil at the price of a decent bottle of wine and chocolate supply under threat from a virus wiping out cacao plants in West Africa, the corporate world is starting to wake up to the risks to our future food supply.

Globally, agriculture is responsible for around 20 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, and is the biggest driver of biodiversity loss. We all need to eat, but with climate change undermining our ability to produce food, is there a better way?

James Bailey, the affable executive director of Waitrose, thinks so. “I don’t think it’s widely understood the impact that the food system has on climate,” he tells me. “On a big, philosophical level, it affects everyone.”

I meet Bailey at John Lewis HQ in Victoria, central London. Dressed down in a pair of chinos and a blue Tommy Hilfiger shirt, Bailey is friendly and engaging, with none of the stiffness of many corporate executives. It is a few days before the supermarket is due to announce a new initiative to support its British farmers – of which there are around 2,000 – in switching to regenerative agriculture. 

While other supermarkets have made commitments on net zero, and Tesco offers financing to its suppliers wanting to switch to greener energy sources, Waitrose is the first to make such a clear commitment across its aisles, including meat and dairy products. 

Unlike organic, which has a strict set of standards that includes no genetically modified ingredients and limits on pesticide and antibiotic use, regenerative agriculture is more of a philosophy of farming, centred around protecting the soil to improve its biodiversity and ability to store carbon. Ways this can be achieved include avoiding ploughing, reducing fertiliser use, and using cover crops during the winter months to protect the soil. 

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‘The era of cheap food is over,’ says Waitrose chief (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

AstraZeneca Pulls Covid Vaccine After Admitting Rare Side Effect

WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 - 07:45 AM

In yet another damning development for the 'safe and effective' crowd, AstraZeneca has announced the worldwide withdrawal of its Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, branded as Vaxzevria, due to a rare but serious side effect. This decision marks the end of the vaccine once hailed as a "triumph for British science" by Boris Johnson and credited with saving over six million lives, The Telegraph reports.

The pharmaceutical giant voluntarily withdrew its "marketing authorization" in the European Union earlier this week, with similar actions expected soon in the UK and other approving countries. The move, described by the company as driven by "commercial reasons," coincides with the availability of newer vaccines designed to combat emerging variants.

That said, the timing of the withdrawal follows months of intense scrutiny over a rare side effect. In a recent High Court document, the company admitted that Vaxzevria could, in very rare instances, cause Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS), which has been linked to at least 81 deaths in the UK. Despite these admissions, AstraZeneca maintains that the decision to pull the vaccine is unrelated to the ongoing legal challenges or its potential side effects.

"We are incredibly proud of the role Vaxzevria played in ending the global pandemic. According to independent estimates, over 6.5 million lives were saved in the first year of use alone and over three billion doses were supplied globally," the company said in a statement. "Our efforts have been recognised by governments around the world and are widely regarded as being a critical component of ending the global pandemic."

The European Medicines Agency has begun the process to formally withdraw the vaccine, reflecting an expected move away from monovalent vaccines, which target only the original COVID-19 strain. Marco Cavaleri, head of vaccines at the agency, emphasized that this is a standard procedure for vaccines that are no longer in use.

Legal experts and victims, however, see the withdrawal as a vindication of their long-held concerns over the vaccine's safety. "To those who we represent, all of whom have suffered bereavement or serious injury as a result of the AstraZeneca vaccine, this decision to withdraw marketing authorisation, ending the usage of the AstraZeneca vaccine in the EU, will be welcomed," said Sarah Moore, a partner at Leigh Day, the law firm representing many of the claimants.

"It will be seen as a decision linked with AstraZeneca’s recent admission that the vaccine can cause TTS, and the fact that regulators across the world suspended or stopped usage of the vaccine following concerns regarding TTS."

Victims and their families have reported a range of severe reactions, from fatal thrombosis to lasting disabilities, sparking a debate over the adequacy of vaccine safety monitoring and compensation for vaccine injuries.

more

AstraZeneca Pulls Covid Vaccine After Admitting Rare Side Effect | ZeroHedge

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Wonder Material 'More Remarkable' Than Graphene Has Medical Potential

May 7, 2024

Scientists may have found a material "more remarkable" than graphene, presenting a wealth of medical potential.

Borophene is infinitely thinner, more conductive, lighter, and stronger than graphene. Scientists at Penn State, Pennsylvania, have now altered it to make it even more functional. They did this by imparting chirality (the absence of mirror symmetry) onto the material which opens more doors to how the material will be used, for example, in medical environments. The new work has been detailed in an ACS Nano study.

Graphene is made from carbon. It consists of a single layer of atoms in a hexagonal structure. It is much stronger than steel yet has the advantage of being extremely light. For this reason, it is used widely as a material for construction, electronics, and energy technology. It may have met its match in borophene, however, which was first produced by combining elements in 2015, the study reported.

"Borophene is a very interesting material, as it resembles carbon very closely including its atomic weight and electron structure but with more remarkable properties. Researchers are only starting to explore its applications," Dipanjan Pan, Dorothy Foehr Huck & J. Lloyd Huck Chair professor in Nanomedicine and professor of materials science and engineering, and nuclear engineering, said in a statement.

"To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to understand the biological interactions of borophene and the first report of imparting chirality on borophene structures."

Pan conducted the research with colleagues including Teresa Aditya, a postdoctoral researcher in nuclear engineering, and David Skrodzki, a graduate research assistant in materials science and engineering at Penn State.

In materials like borophene, chirality can make a copy of sorts. In a summary of the findings, researchers at Penn State liken it to a left hand and a right hand. The chirality can make two versions of the same chemicals without them being identical.

Imparting chirality to borophene allows its atoms to rearrange into different shapes, lending itself to various uses. This resulting material could be used to create advanced medical technology that could track cell interactions, according to the study. These devices could be far safer and even more effective, the researchers said in a summary of the findings.

This opens up wide possibilities—to the extent that it could surpass graphene as a highly important material.

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Wonder Material 'More Remarkable' Than Graphene Has Medical Potential (msn.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.   

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

It is trust, more than money, that makes the world go round.

Joseph Stiglitz.