Baltic Dry Index. 2083+207 Brent Crude 82.69
Spot
Gold 2319 US 2 Year Yield 4.84 +0.02
Economists have much to be humble about.
Paul Samuelson. (And central
banksters, GI.)
In the stock
casinos, it’s still a game of frontrunning the expected interest rate cuts by
the central banks.
Up today, “the
Old bag Lady of Threadneedle Street,” the BOE. No change is expected
today, but their guidance, if any, on June will be crucial.
Almost no one in the casinos are focused on the now spreading flooding in south Brazil, now affecting next door Uruguay and what it might mean later this year on food price inflation.
Below this morning’s stocks casinos coverage
and a misprint I think in the CNBC coverage. Does CNBC have a mole inside the
Bank of England?
Asia shares steady
after solid China trade data, yen stable
By Stella Qiu
May
9, 2024 4:40 AM GMT+1
SYDNEY, May 9 (Reuters) -
Asian shares steadied on Thursday after solid Chinese trade data added to signs
domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy is picking up, while the
yen stabilised after three days of declines as Japan talked up potential
currency interventions.
Later in the day, the Bank of England (BoE) will decide its
interest rate policy, with all eyes on the prospects of a June rate cut
following the overnight move by Sweden's Riksbank to cut
rates, which underlined Europe's divergence from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS)rose 0.1%, hovering not far
from a 15-month high hit earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell
reiterated a stance for policy easing later this year.
Investors will be focusing on the U.S. consumer inflation data
for April due next Wednesday after three straight prints of upside surprises
for a better sense of the direction of the Fed's policy.
Chinese customs data showed
that imports jumped 8.4% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for a
rise of 4.8%, while the gain in exports met forecasts.
That helped Chinese shares build on earlier gains, with bluechip
stocks (.CSI300)rising 1% and Hong Kong's
Hang Seng index (.HSI) increasing 1.2%.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.5%. Nasdaq stock
futures eased 0.1%, dragged lower by Uber (UBER.N), which fell 5.7% overnight as
the ride-sharing company issued a downbeat forecast after a surprise quarterly
loss.
"A first rate cut by the Riksbank has not been
enough to further push the bullish sentiment. Eyes are on the Bank of
England," said analysts at ING in a note to clients.
"Since Powell's dovish stance just last week,
markets will listen carefully for a similar direction as the Fed. This also
means that markets may face a surprise if a similar turn towards more
dovishness is not reflected in this BoE meeting."
More
Asia
shares steady after solid China trade data, yen stable | Reuters
European markets
head for higher open; BoE rate decision ahead
UPDATED THU, MAY 9 2024 12:29 AM EDT
European
markets are heading for a higher open Thursday, maintaining positive momentum
in a busy week of earnings.
Ferrovial,
Telefonica, EDP, Enel, Pirelli and Salvatore Ferragamo are all due to report
today.
Elsewhere, the
Bank of England is set to publish its latest interest rate decision Thursday.
Although it’s likely (??? Un?) to cut rates this month, investors will be looking out
for any signals of a change in position from the central bank’s policymakers.
China stocks rose
overnight as its imports surged past estimates and exports rose in line with
expectations, while the broader Asia-Pacific market was
mixed. Meanwhile, futures linked
to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline Wednesday evening
after the 30-stock index posted its sixth consecutive winning day.
CNBC Pro: ‘Biggest investment opportunity’:
Investment manager names stocks to play the copper market
Copper has been on
fire, touching $10,000 per ton this week.
Will McDonough CEO
of merchant bank Corestone Capital says he has “not seen this level of interest
and conversation on copper.”
“Copper is going
through some serious spikes and prices are likely to be much higher in the
future. I think it is the biggest investment opportunity right now,” he told
CNBC Pro, naming stocks he is betting on right now.
European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
In other news, yet another warning from the
IMF.
U.S. and China
trade divisions threaten a ‘reversal’ for global economy, IMF official warns
PUBLISHED WED, MAY 8 2024 4:32 AM
EDT
Differences between U.S.-led Western and
China-aligned economic blocs threaten global trade cooperation and economic growth,
a top official with the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.
IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in
a speech at Stanford University that events such as the global
pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have disrupted global trade relations
in ways not seen since the Cold War.
“Increasingly, countries around the world are
guided by economic security and national security concerns in determining who
they trade with and invest in,” she said, adding that this has resulted in
countries increasingly picking sides between China and the U.S.
While strengthening economic resilience is “not
necessarily bad,” the trend of fragmentation threatens a move away from a
“rules-based global trading system” and a “significant reversal of the gains
from economic integration,” Gopinath said.
Tensions between
Washington and Beijing have been rising as the U.S. ramps up trade restrictions and sanctions on
China, citing national security concerns, while worries over Beijing’s advances
in the South China Sea and the rhetoric around Taiwan have also soured
sentiment.
The increasing tension between the world’s two
largest economies has been reflected globally, with over 3,000 trade
restrictions imposed by countries worldwide in 2022 and 2023, more than triple
compared with 2019, according to data compiled by the IMF.
Trade between the China and U.S. blocs has
declined compared with trade among countries within the groupings, Gopinath
said. The U.S. bloc mainly includes Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, while
China-leaning countries include Russia, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, trade between the
blocs has dropped by about 12% and foreign direct investments are down by 20%
compared with those within the bloc’s constituents.
China, in particular, has struggled to maintain
foreign investment amid increased tensions with the West. Foreign direct
investment flows into the country reportedly fell 26% in the first three months of 2024 compared
with the same period a year earlier.
While economic fragmentation has yet to reach the
same levels as the Cold War, its potential impact is much greater due to the
global economy’s higher dependence on trade, according to Gopinath.
If divisions are not bridged, the IMF estimates
the economic costs to the world’s GDP could be as high as 7% in the extreme
fragmentation scenario. GDP will be hit by about 0.2% in case of mild
divisions.
More
U.S. and China trade bloc divisions threaten a
'reversal' for global economy (cnbc.com)
In
EV news, did Tesla criminally mislead buyers and investors?
In Tesla Autopilot
probe, US prosecutors focus on securities, wire fraud
By Mike Spector and Chris Prentice May 8, 2024 1:10 PM GMT+1
May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. prosecutors are
examining whether Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab committed securities or wire fraud
by misleading investors and consumers about its electric vehicles’ self-driving
capabilities, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Tesla’s
Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems assist with steering, braking and lane
changes - but are not fully autonomous. While Tesla has warned drivers to stay
ready to take over driving, the Justice Department is examining other
statements by Tesla and Chief Executive Elon Musk suggesting its cars can drive
themselves.
U.S. regulators have separately
investigated hundreds of crashes, including fatal ones, that have occurred in
Teslas with Autopilot engaged, resulting in a mass recall by the automaker.
Reuters
exclusively reported the U.S. criminal
investigation into Tesla in October 2022, and is now the first to report
the specific criminal liability federal prosecutors are examining.
Investigators
are exploring whether Tesla committed wire fraud, which involves deception in
interstate communications, by misleading consumers about its driver-assistance
systems, the sources said. They are also examining whether Tesla committed
securities fraud by deceiving investors, two of the sources said.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating Tesla’s
representations about driver-assistance systems to investors, one of the people
said. The SEC declined to comment.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. Last October, it
disclosed in a filing that the Justice Department had asked the company for
information about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.
The Justice Department declined to comment.
More
In Tesla Autopilot probe, US prosecutors focus on
securities, wire fraud | Reuters
Tesla “smart summon,” bust. Approx. 6
minutes.
Tesla "Smart Summon"
feature FAILS causing 💰THOUSANDS💰 in damage | MGUY Australia
Tesla "Smart Summon" feature FAILS causing 💰THOUSANDS💰 in damage | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Rains return to
flooded southern Brazil, interrupting rescues
By Leonardo Benassatto and Debora Ely May 8, 2024 11:22 PM
GMT+1
PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil, May 8 (Reuters) - Authorities
interrupted rescue efforts in flood-ravaged southern Brazil on Wednesday amid
more rain and the risk of lightning and stiff winds that threaten to exacerbate
a catastrophe that has already killed at least 100 people and left over 163,000
seeking shelter.
The floods that began last week, caused by
unusually heavy rains, have destroyed highways and bridges in the state of Rio
Grande do Sul, which borders Uruguay and Argentina.
"We've lost everything," said Adriana
Freitas in state capital Porto Alegre, where the Guaiba River burst its banks
and inundated city streets. "It's sad when we see the city, our house, in
the middle of the water. It seems like it's over, that the world has
ended."
At least 128 people are still missing, the state's
civil defense authority said, urging people living close to the Patos lagoon
south of Porto Alegre to leave their homes immediately.
Army soldiers used amphibious armored cars to rescue people from
flooding in Canoas, just north of the city, where the waters have reached a
depth of some three meters (10 ft) and the streets can only be navigated by
boat.
---- Brazil's national
center for natural disasters warned that the southern area of Rio Grande do Sul
state was under "high risk" of more flooding, with rainfall expected
to restart after a brief hiatus.
Weather forecaster MetSul said in a statement the
region could face more "very large" floods "of serious
proportions".
In neighboring Uruguay, storms and flooding have
closed highways and left nearly 800 people displaced and over 3,000 people
without power, the government said.
In Brazil, many residents in and around Porto
Alegre, a city of 1.3 million people, have been living in darkness after power
companies cut off electricity for security reasons.
They have faced shortages of products, especially
drinking water. Supermarket managers said there was no access for supply trucks
or employees trying to get to work. Mineral water sales were restricted in some
supermarkets.
Volunteer rescue operations after dark in Porto
Alegre were also hampered by looting, with police providing security using
boats and even jet skis.
"We are not going out to rescue people at
night without an armed escort, because it has become too risky," volunteer
Lauro Strogulski told Reuters.
Rains
return to flooded southern Brazil, interrupting rescues | Reuters
US inflation will soar if America doesn't undergo reindustrialization, investment manager says
May 7, 2024
Inflation will climb higher if the US economy doesn't reindustrialize its economy, according to investment manager Richard Bernstein.
The Richard Bernstein
Advisors CEO pointed to the US's "massive" trade deficit, with the
difference between imports and exports clocking in at $773.4 billion last year,
according to the Commerce Department.
That trade
imbalance could lead to trouble for the economy, considering the ongoing trend
of deglobalization. World
trade has become more fragmented since the pandemic, and rising geopolitical
tensions are a sign that the trend is continuing, he said.
That suggests the US needs to
reindustrialize its economy or face higher prices as a long-term consequence,
he warned.
"It has to happen. If it
doesn't … we're going to have tremendous inflation here in the United
States," Bernstein said to CNBC on Monday.
"We're dependent on the world for everything at a time when globalization
is starting to contract. Not a good combination. It changes the story from
secular disinflation to secular inflation."
Market commentators have
warned that deglobalization could be a major factor keeping inflation elevated
for years to come. Billionaire investor Ken Griffin predicted last year
that high prices could stick around for decades as fragmented world trade will disrupt supply
chains and push up costs for consumers.
Reindustrialization efforts
in the US are already underway, with the government offering billions in aid
for companies to build new infrastructure and produce key goods, like
semiconductors, EVs, and solar panels. More firms are already choosing to manufacture their goods in
America, a JPMorgan paper found.
Bernstein has been calling
for a reindustrialization of the US economy over the past decade. In 2012, he
published a whitepaper calling for an "industrial renaissance,"
which would take US manufacturing back to levels recorded in the 50s and 60s.
That renaissance will be the predominant theme in the market over the next 10 years, he said in a note earlier this year.
What Does Stagflation Mean for Commodity Prices?
Published: May 07, 2024, 20:42 GMT+01:00
Almost by definition, when inflation accelerates, so does the
prices of Commodities.
What a difference a
quarter makes. The Federal Reserve rang in 2024 with a bout of optimism that
inflation was coming down to their 2% target. But that optimism has now
evaporated as the reality of stickier-than-expected inflation becomes more
evident.
Fast forward a few
months to the present day and the word on everyone’s lips is “Stagflation,” –
the combination of below-trend growth and above-target inflation.
Following a string of U.S inflation reports
during the first three months of 2024 – which all came in above estimates –
concerns are beginning to mount that inflation could prove more difficult to
conquer than previously thought.
On top of that, economic growth during the first
quarter unexpectedly slowed, rising at an annualized pace of just 1.6% – the
weakest pace of growth since the second quarter of 2022 when the economy
contracted.
Put another way, that’s a steep slowdown
following a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the quarter
before that.
There are no prizes for
guessing that Commodities tend
to be the big winners in inflationary environments. Almost by definition, when
inflation accelerates, so does the prices of Commodities.
That’s why it’s no surprise that Google searches
of the term “Stagflation” have surged over 600% this month.
Which leads me to the big question: Is
Stagflation coming or is it already here?
Only time will tell. However one thing we do
know for certain is that savvy traders aren’t waiting around to find out.
According to data tracked by GSC Commodity
Intelligence – traders have poured over $970 million into Commodities this
month to hedge against a second wave of inflation, but even more importantly –
capitalize on a treasure chest of opportunities brewing across the metals,
energies and agricultural sectors.
More
What Does Stagflation Mean for Commodity Prices? |
FXEmpire
‘The era of cheap food is over,’ says Waitrose chief
May 8, 2024
Talk to anybody in the food
and farming industry these days and it won’t be long before someone brings up
regenerative agriculture. Farming in a more nature-friendly way, reminiscent of
pre-war practices, for a long time “regen” has been
bracketed as a niche, hippy pursuit.
But with our crops under
water, olive oil at the price of a decent bottle of wine and chocolate supply under threat from a virus
wiping out cacao plants in West Africa, the corporate world is starting to wake
up to the risks to our future food supply.
Globally, agriculture is responsible
for around 20 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, and is the biggest driver
of biodiversity loss. We all need to eat, but with climate change undermining
our ability to produce food, is there a better way?
James Bailey, the affable executive
director of Waitrose, thinks so. “I don’t think it’s widely understood the
impact that the food system has on climate,” he tells me. “On a big,
philosophical level, it affects everyone.”
I meet Bailey at John Lewis HQ in
Victoria, central London. Dressed down in a pair of chinos and a blue Tommy
Hilfiger shirt, Bailey is friendly and engaging, with none of the stiffness of
many corporate executives. It is a few days before the supermarket is due to
announce a new initiative to support its British farmers – of which there are
around 2,000 – in switching to regenerative agriculture.
While other supermarkets have made
commitments on net zero, and Tesco offers financing to its suppliers wanting to
switch to greener energy sources, Waitrose is the first to make such a clear
commitment across its aisles, including meat and dairy products.
Unlike organic, which has a strict
set of standards that includes no genetically modified ingredients and limits
on pesticide and antibiotic use, regenerative agriculture is more of a
philosophy of farming, centred around protecting the soil to improve its
biodiversity and ability to store carbon. Ways this can be achieved include
avoiding ploughing, reducing fertiliser use, and using cover crops during the
winter months to protect the soil.
More
‘The era of cheap food is over,’ says Waitrose chief (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
AstraZeneca Pulls Covid
Vaccine After Admitting Rare Side Effect
WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 - 07:45 AM
In yet another damning development for the 'safe and effective'
crowd, AstraZeneca has announced the worldwide withdrawal of its
Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, branded as Vaxzevria, due to a rare but
serious side effect. This decision marks the end of the vaccine
once hailed as a "triumph for British science" by Boris
Johnson and credited with saving over six million lives, The Telegraph reports.
The
pharmaceutical giant voluntarily withdrew its "marketing
authorization" in the European Union earlier this week,
with similar actions expected soon in the UK and other approving countries. The
move, described by the company as driven by "commercial reasons,"
coincides with the availability of newer vaccines designed to combat emerging
variants.
That
said, the timing of the withdrawal follows months of intense scrutiny over a
rare side effect. In a recent High Court document, the company admitted that
Vaxzevria could, in very rare instances, cause Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia
Syndrome (TTS), which has been linked to at least 81 deaths in the UK. Despite
these admissions, AstraZeneca maintains that the decision to pull the vaccine
is unrelated to the ongoing legal challenges or its potential side effects.
"We are
incredibly proud of the role Vaxzevria played in ending the global pandemic.
According to independent estimates, over 6.5 million lives were saved in the
first year of use alone and over three billion doses were supplied
globally," the company said in a statement. "Our efforts have been
recognised by governments around the world and are widely regarded as being a
critical component of ending the global pandemic."
The European
Medicines Agency has begun the process to formally withdraw the vaccine,
reflecting an expected move away from monovalent vaccines, which target only
the original COVID-19 strain. Marco Cavaleri, head of vaccines at the agency,
emphasized that this is a standard procedure for vaccines that are no longer in
use.
Legal experts and
victims, however, see the withdrawal as a vindication of their long-held
concerns over the vaccine's safety. "To those who we represent, all of
whom have suffered bereavement or serious injury as a result of the AstraZeneca
vaccine, this decision to withdraw marketing authorisation, ending the usage of
the AstraZeneca vaccine in the EU, will be welcomed," said Sarah Moore, a
partner at Leigh Day, the law firm representing many of the claimants.
"It will be
seen as a decision linked with AstraZeneca’s recent admission that the vaccine
can cause TTS, and the fact that regulators across the world suspended or
stopped usage of the vaccine following concerns regarding TTS."
Victims and their
families have reported a range of severe reactions, from fatal thrombosis to
lasting disabilities, sparking a debate over the adequacy of vaccine safety
monitoring and compensation for vaccine injuries.
more
AstraZeneca Pulls Covid Vaccine After Admitting Rare
Side Effect | ZeroHedge
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Wonder Material 'More Remarkable' Than Graphene Has
Medical Potential
May 7,
2024
Scientists may have found a
material "more remarkable" than graphene, presenting a wealth of
medical potential.
Borophene is infinitely
thinner, more conductive, lighter, and stronger than graphene. Scientists at
Penn State, Pennsylvania, have now altered it to make it even more functional.
They did this by imparting chirality (the absence of mirror symmetry) onto the
material which opens more doors to how the material will be used, for example,
in medical environments. The new work has been detailed in an ACS Nano study.
Graphene is made from carbon. It
consists of a single layer of atoms in a hexagonal structure. It is much
stronger than steel yet has the advantage of being extremely light. For this
reason, it is used widely as a material for construction, electronics, and
energy technology. It may have met its match in borophene, however, which was
first produced by combining elements in 2015, the study reported.
"Borophene is a very interesting
material, as it resembles carbon very closely including its atomic weight and
electron structure but with more remarkable properties. Researchers are only
starting to explore its applications," Dipanjan Pan, Dorothy Foehr Huck
& J. Lloyd Huck Chair professor in Nanomedicine and professor of materials
science and engineering, and nuclear engineering, said in a statement.
"To the best of our knowledge,
this is the first study to understand the biological interactions of borophene
and the first report of imparting chirality on borophene structures."
Pan conducted the research with colleagues
including Teresa Aditya, a postdoctoral researcher in nuclear engineering, and
David Skrodzki, a graduate research assistant in materials science and
engineering at Penn State.
In materials like borophene,
chirality can make a copy of sorts. In a summary of the findings, researchers
at Penn State liken it to a left hand and a right hand. The chirality can make
two versions of the same chemicals without them being identical.
Imparting chirality to borophene allows its atoms to
rearrange into different shapes, lending itself to various uses. This resulting
material could be used to create advanced medical technology that could track
cell interactions, according to the study. These devices could be far safer and
even more effective, the researchers said in a summary of the findings.
This opens up wide possibilities—to the extent that it could
surpass graphene as a highly important material.
More
Wonder
Material 'More Remarkable' Than Graphene Has Medical Potential (msn.com)
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It is trust, more than money, that makes the world go round.
Joseph Stiglitz.
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