Baltic
Dry Index. 1804 -25 Brent Crude 81.50
Spot Gold 2371 US 2 Year Yield 4.86 +0.05
Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Even Nvidia hype couldn’t trump the Fed minutes gloom on inflation and higher interest rates for longer, or even higher interest rates rather than interest rate cuts in 2024.
Will Wall Street’s city slickers be able to turn the Nvidia fantasy around into a Wall Street rally later today, or was that it, the stock mania top?
Elsewhere, Britain flirts with a very socialist future. Get gold and silver.
Asia markets are mixed after Fed meeting minutes
signal rates may stay higher for longer
UPDATED THU, MAY 23 2024 12:45 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed after minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting
revealed Fed officials’ concerns over sticky inflation, with members seemingly
getting cold feet on possible interest rate cuts.
South Korea’s central bank held
its benchmark policy rate at 3.5% as estimated in a Reuters poll. The BOK is
expected to cut by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, according to a
Reuters poll from May 21.
Singapore’s final first-quarter
gross domestic figures remained unchanged from its advance estimate of 2.7%.
Investors also assessed flash
business activity data from Australia and Japan.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
0.6%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.2%.
In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi slid
0.33%, while the small-cap Kosdaq reversed losses and rose 0.22% after the
BOK’s decision.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 lost
about 0.8%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed
1.54%, while the CSI 300 index dropped 0.38%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw
its worst day in May and declined 0.51%, while the S&P 500 lost
0.27% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.18%.
Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of
the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension
from policymakers about when it would be time to ease.
A notable bright spot in the U.S.
however, was artificial intelligence darling Nvidia,
which saw its
shares cross the $1,000 mark for the first time in extended
trading on Wednesday, after the chipmaker reported fiscal first-quarter results
that topped analyst estimates.
Asia markets: Fed
inflation, Japan PMI, Singapore GDP, BOK decision (cnbc.com)
Nasdaq futures jump after AI-darling Nvidia
issues strong forecast: Live updates
UPDATED THU, MAY 23 2024 8:27 PM EDT
Nasdaq-100
futures rose on Wednesday evening as Wall Street assessed the latest quarterly
results from market bellwether Nvidia.
Nasdaq-100
futures jumped
0.4%, while S&P 500
futures added
0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped
53 points, or 0.1%.
Chipmaker and artificial
intelligence darling Nvidia added 6% in extended trading, sending shares above
$1,000, after posting stronger-than-expected
fiscal first-quarter results and announcing a 10-for-1
stock split.
Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter
revenue guidance of about $28 billion also beat a StreetAccount forecast of
$36.2 billion -- a sign the company doesn’t see its momentum slowing.
Snowflake added
4% on a revenue beat.
Nvidia’s results have been a
focal point for Wall Street, as traders hoped for signs that the excitement
around AI is not waning. With its $2.3 trillion market cap, Nvidia also has
considerable sway over the broad S&P 500.
The stock, alongside AI and megacap technology peers, has powered the market’s
gains into 2024, with Wolfe Research’s Chris Senyek noting that a beat would be
a “key tailwind” for equities overall.
“Even in the face of huge
expectations, the company once again stepped up and delivered,” said Ryan
Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The always important data
center revenue was strong, while future revenue was also impressive. Bottom line,
the bar was high and cleared it once again.”
Stocks dropped
during Wednesday’s session after
minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting fueled concerns
over sticky inflation and fear that the central bank may push off cuts. The
30-stock Dow fell
0.51%, for its worst session in May. The S&P 500 dipped 0.27% and the
Nasdaq Composite slid 0.18%.
The final stage of the
first-quarter reporting season continues Thursday with results from Ralph
Lauren, BJ’s Wholesale, Workday and more. On the economic front, investors
await weekly jobless claims and new home sales data for April.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says U.S. could see a
‘hard landing,’ stagflation will be ‘worst outcome’
JPMorgan
Chase’s
chairman and CEO Jamie
Dimon says the the U.S. economy could see a “hard landing.”
When asked by CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah about
the prospect of a hard landing, Dimon replied: “Could we actually see one? Of
course, how could anyone who reads history say there’s no chance?”
The CEO was speaking at the JPMorgan Global China Summit in Shanghai.
Dimon said the worst outcome for
the U.S. economy will be a “stagflation” scenario, where inflation continues to
rise, but growth slows amid high unemployment.
“I look at the range of outcomes
and again, the worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation, higher
rates, recession. That means corporate profits will go down and we’ll get
through all of that. I mean, the world has survived that but I just think the
odds have been higher than other people think.”
However, he said that “the consumer
is still in good shape” even if the economy slips into recession.
He pointed to the unemployment
rate, which has been below 4% for about two years, adding that wages, home
prices and stock prices have been going up.
That said, Dimon points out that consumer confidence levels are low. “It
seems to be mostly because of inflation...The extra money from COVID has been
coming down. It’s still there, you know, at the bottom 50% it’s kind of gone.
So it’s I’m gonna call it normal, not bad.”
Minutes
from the Fed’s May meeting released Wednesday showed that
policymakers have grown more concerned about inflation, with members of the
Federal Open Market Committee indicating they lacked confidence to ease
monetary policy and cut rates.
JPM
Jamie Dimon: U.S. could see hard landing, stagflation is worst outcome
(cnbc.com)
Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over
lack of progress on inflation
Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at
their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they
lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions.
Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of
the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension
from policymakers about when it would be time to ease.
The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more
stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2%
inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well
ahead of that mark.
“Participants observed that while
inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack
of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary
said. “The recent monthly data had showed significant increases in components
of both goods and services price inflation.”
The minutes also showed “various
participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to
inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.” Several
Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Christopher Waller,
have said since the meeting that they
doubt the next move would be a hike.
The FOMC voted unanimously at the
meeting to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a range of
5.25%-5.5%, a 23-year high where it has been since July 2023.
“Participants assessed that
maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting
was supported by intermeeting data indicating continued solid economic growth,”
the minutes said.
Since then, there have been some incremental signs of progress on
inflation, as the consumer
price index for April showed inflation running at a 3.4% annual
rate, slightly below the March level. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI
came in at 3.6%, the lowest since April 2021.
However, consumer surveys indicate
increasing worries. For instance, the University
of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed the one-year
outlook at 3.5%, the highest since November, while overall optimism slumped. A New
York Fed survey showed similar results.
---- Fed officials at the meeting noted
several upside risks to inflation, particularly from geopolitical events, and
noted the pressure that inflation was having on consumers, particularly those
on the lower end of the wage scale. Some participants said the early year
increase in inflation could have come from seasonal distortions, though others
argued that the “broad-based” nature of the moves means they shouldn’t be
“overly discounted.”
Committee members
also expressed worry that consumers were resorting to riskier forms of
financing to make ends meet as inflation pressures persist.
More
Fed minutes May 2024: Concern over stubborn inflation (cnbc.com)
In other news, Britain’s government in office
but not in power, goes for broke. Polls show GB likely to swing left as the
rest of Europe swings right.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls July 4
general election
LONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on
Wednesday called for a general election to take place on July 4, after economic
data showed a fall in inflation near the British central bank’s 2% target
earlier in the day.
“Earlier today I spoke with his
majesty the King to ask for the dissolution of Parliament. The King has granted
this request, and we will have a general election on the 4th of July.” said
Sunak, speaking during a news conference outside Downing Street.
Data from the Office for National Statistics earlier Wednesday showed that
U.K. inflation dropped to
2.3% in April.
Sunak’s ruling Conservative Party
had been hoping for signs of an improving economic environment, as it lags in
the polls ahead of the national election.
“Economic stability is the bedrock
of any future success,” said Sunak. “And because of our collective sacrifice
and your hard work, we have reached two major milestones in delivering that
stability.”
He qualified that the U.K. economy
is now growing faster than anyone expected.
“Uncertain times call for a clear
plan and bold action,” said Sunak, referencing the ongoing war
in Ukraine. “I’m guided by doing what is right for our country, not
what is easy.”
Sunak, who has held the post of prime minister since October 2022, pledged
to earn the the trust of the British people.
More
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls July 4 general election (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK inflation falls
but price pressures dash June rate cut hopes
By Reuters May 22, 2024 7:40 AM
GMT+1
LONDON, May 22 (Reuters) - Inflation in Britain
fell by less than expected, prompting investors to cut their bets on a Bank of
England rate cut next month which would have given a boost to embattled Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak before an election this year.
Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.3%, down
sharply from a 3.2% increase in March and its lowest since July 2021 when it
stood at 2.0%, the Office for National Statistics said.
But the BoE - which has an inflation target of 2% -
and economists polled by Reuters had forecast a bigger drop to 2.1%.
Services inflation - a key gauge of domestically
generated price pressure for the BoE - was much higher than expected, while
petrol prices also rose.
Sterling jumped after the data and investors priced
the chance of a BoE rate cut in June at just 18% down from 50% on Tuesday.
Economists had widely expected a sharper drop in
inflation, citing a 12% drop in regulated household energy tariffs that took
effect last month.
"While inflation continues to fall sharply,
this report will come as a disappointment to the Bank of England and investors
looking for a rate cut in June," said Luke Bartholomew, senior economist
at asset manager abrdn.
"In particular the strength of core inflation
and services inflation, both of which came in a fair bit stronger than
expected, will make it harder for the Bank to feel confident that underlying
inflation pressure is cooling adequately."
Services inflation only inched down to 5.9% from 6.0% in March.
The BoE's forecasts and the Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 5.5%.
UK inflation falls but price pressures dash June rate cut hopes | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Court Lets Lawsuit Over Refusal to Give Dying Woman Ivermectin Proceed
The
hospital system’s bid to rely on federal law was turned down by the judge.
5/20/2024 Updated: 5/21/2024
A court has
rejected a hospital system’s claim that its refusal to continue giving
ivermectin to a dying woman was covered by federal law, stating that the law
does not apply to the actions in question.
Mount Sinai South
Nassau in New York City was twice forced to give COVID-19 patient Deborah
Bucko, who was close to death after the system’s normal treatment failed,
ivermectin under court order. Mrs. Bucko’s condition improved after she began
taking ivermectin.
However, the
system stopped the second round of treatment before the prescription ended, and
Mrs. Bucko then died.
After
being sued, Mount Sinai said the lawsuit should be thrown out because it’s
immune under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act),
which covers health care workers administering drugs
and vaccines during a health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
“There is no
refuting that the complaint is a frontal attack on the use of COVID-19
countermeasures as defined by the PREP Act,” lawyers for the hospital system
said in a filing. “The complaint expressly implicates conduct encompassed by
the PREP Act by alleging a claim for loss that has a causal relationship with
the dispensing and administration of covered countermeasures to treat COVID-19.
As such, the law requires its dismissal.”
The act has been successfully invoked in a
range of COVID-19-related cases. Workers who injected a child with a COVID-19
vaccine without parental consent, for instance, recently won the dismissal of a
lawsuit by citing the law.
The motion
to dismiss by Mount Sinai, though, was rejected by New York Supreme Court
Justice Randy Sue Marber.
Justice Marber wrote in a May 17 order that Mount Sinai,
its workers, and ivermectin, fit under the definitions of “covered person” and
“covered countermeasure” under the law. But the suit against the system does
not bring a claim relating to the use of ivermectin to treat COVID-19, she said.
“Rather, in
stunning contrast to South Nassau’s assertions, the complaint alleges, with
particularity, that South Nassau ‘acted wrongfully and negligently, by
repeatedly refusing to administer ivermectin to ... [the decedent]’
notwithstanding it ‘having been prescribed” ... and ’despite clear evidence in
the medical records that ... [the decedent’s] condition showed significant
improvement once the ivermectin treatment was initiated,'” the justice said,
quoting from the complaint.
The ruling
means the case will move forward. The next hearing is scheduled to take place
on June 3.
More
Court Lets Lawsuit Over Refusal to Give Dying Woman Ivermectin Proceed | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Long-life
low-carbon concrete switches 80% of its cement for coal ash
Loz Blain May 21, 2024
Coal
ash is abundant around coal-fired power stations. In fact, that might be
considerably understating things – globally, power stations produce around 1.2
billion tonnes annually, and in Australia coal ash accounts for nearly
20% of all waste. It's a staggering figure – and it's also a safe bet that
this stuff will remain abundant long into the renewable energy transition.
Hence, it's an enormous potential
material resource, and low-carbon concrete manufacturers have been using it as
a cement substitute, typically replacing up to 40% of the cement. In an
environmental sense, this kills two birds with one stone, making use of a
massive waste product while cutting down on cement – which by itself accounts
for somewhere around 8% of all global carbon emissions.
A team from RMIT has been working with the Ash Development Association
of Australia, and the AGL Loy Yang Power Station, to make better use of this
dubious asset, attempting to push the ash content up to replace over 80% of the
cement.
To do so, the researchers used a mixture of low calcium fly ash, with
18% hydrated lime and 3% nano-silica acting as strengthening agents, then
poured some concrete and started testing its mechanical properties.
The resulting High-Volume Fly Ash (HFVA-80) concrete demonstrated a
compressive strength increase from 22 to 71 MPa between days 7 and 450. It
achieved flexural strengths of 2.7-8.7 MPa, splitting tensile strengths of
1.6–5.0 MPa and an elastic modulus of 28.9–37.0 GPa. It outlasted regular
Portland cement over time when exposed to acids and sulphates for two years.
"Our addition of nano additives to modify the concrete’s chemistry
allows more fly ash to be added without compromising engineering performance,”
said project lead Dr. Chamila Gunasekara, from RMIT’s School of Engineering, in
a press release.
Better still, the team says it sees the technique doesn't require fine
'fly ash' and appears to work about as well with low-grade 'pond ash,' having
now created and tested structural concrete beams from the latter, which have
passed Australian Standards certification for engineering performance.
“It’s exciting that preliminary results show similar performance with
lower-grade pond ash, potentially opening a whole new hugely underutilized
resource for cement replacement,” says Gunasekara. “Compared to fly ash, pond
ash is underexploited in construction due to its different characteristics.
"There are hundreds of megatonnes of ash wastes sitting in dams
around Australia, and much more globally. These ash ponds risk becoming an
environmental hazard, and the ability to repurpose this ash in construction
materials at scale would be a massive win.”
The RMIT team has also worked with Hokkaido University to develop a
pilot computer modeling system forecasting the performance of these new
concrete mixtures over time, and the team hopes to use this software to analyze
and optimize further new mixes.
Long-life low-carbon concrete switches 80% of its
cement for coal ash (newatlas.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
In economics, the majority is always wrong.
John Kenneth Galbraith. Not always, but close.
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