Baltic Dry Index. 1797 +01 Brent Crude 82.20
Spot Gold 2334 US 2 Year Yield 4.93 +0.02
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.
H. L. Mencken.
With US and UK markets closed for a holiday, Asia’s lead today takes on more interest than usual.
Later on month-end Friday this week, the latest inflation figures from the EU and USA. Markets are looking for the ECB to start cutting their key interest rates next week with the US central bank waiting until September at the earliest.
Before
Friday, Reuters reports at least eight US Fedster’s are speechifying this week.
Poor Americans!
Asia markets
kick-start data-heavy week higher as China industrial profits rise
UPDATED SUN, MAY 26 2024 11:41 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets rose Monday as industrial profits in China rose during the first four
months of the year, according to official data.
China’s industrial profits rose 4.3% year on year in the
January to April period, data from the National Bureau of
Statistics showed.
Mainland China’s benchmark CSI
300 index climbed 0.21%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added
0.4%.
More economic data from China and
India is also due later this week. The world’s second-largest economy will
release its official purchasing managers’ index reading on Friday, while India
will post its fiscal fourth-quarter gross domestic product numbers.
Australia will also announce its
inflation data for April on Wednesday, with analysts from ING expecting a “modest dip.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
0.22% and the broad-based Topix rose 0.3%, rebounding from Friday’s losses.
South Korea’s Kospi was
about 0.5% higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq was flat.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 gained
0.8%, on pace to snap a four-day losing streak.
On Friday in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite closed
at a fresh record high as gains in chipmaker Nvidia outweighed worries that the
Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts.
The tech-heavy index advanced
1.1%, ending at 16,920.79. The S&P 500 rose
0.7%, while the Dow Jones
Industrial Average edged
up 0.01%.
U.S. markets will be closed for a
holiday on Monday.
Asia
markets: Australia CPI, China PMI, India GDP (cnbc.com)
Asia shares creep
higher as US, EU inflation data loom
By Wayne Cole May 27, 2024 4:00 AM GMT+1
SYDNEY, May 27 (Reuters) - Asian shares edged
higher on Monday as investors braced for a busy week of data which culminates
in a key U.S. inflation report that could set the stage for a cut in interest
rates there, albeit not for a few months yet.
Holidays in the United States and UK made for thin
trading ahead of Friday's figures on core personal consumption expenditures
(PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Median forecasts
are for a rise of 0.3% in April, keeping the annual pace at 2.8%, with risks on
the downside.
"Consumer and producer price data suggest core
PCE inflation lost further momentum in April after a strong start to the year.
Indeed, we look for the core index to advance 0.22% m/m vs 0.32% in March and
an initial 0.25% estimate," said analysts at TD Securities in a note.
"We also look for the headline to rise 0.23%
m/m while the super core likely cooled to 0.26%."
Figures for inflation in the euro zone are also due
on Friday and an expected tick up to 2.5% should not stop the European Central
Bank from easing policy next week.
Policy makers Piero Cipollone and Fabio Panetta both flagged a
coming cut over the weekend, while markets imply an 88% chance of an easing to
3.75% on June 6.
The Bank of Canada might also ease next week, while the Fed is
seen waiting until September for its first move. ,
There are at least eight Fed officials due to speak this week,
including two appearances by the influential head of the New York Fed John
Williams.
The head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Monday
said they would proceed cautiously with inflation-targeting frameworks, noting
that some challenges are "uniquely difficult" for Japan after years
of ultra-easy monetary policy.
The BOJ holds its policy meeting on June 14 and there is some
chance it may buck the global trend and hike rates again, albeit to a modest
0.15%.
The prospect of lower borrowing costs across much of the globe
has been positive for equities and commodities, though many markets did run
into profit taking last week.
---- The Nasdaq hit record
highs last week after Nvidia (NVDA.O) beat expectations.
Indeed, Nvidia alone has accounted for a quarter of the S&P
500's gains so far this year, while the Magnificent 7 tech darlings are up 24%
for the year.
In currency markets, attention was again centred on the yen and
the risk of Japanese intervention ahead of the 160.00 level. The dollar stood
at 156.78 yen , having added 0.9% last week and close to its recent top of
160.245.
Japan renewed its push to
counter excessive yen falls during a weekend gathering of Group of Seven (G7)
finance leaders, after a recent rise in bond yields to a 12-year high failed to
slow the currency's decline.
The euro was steady at $1.0845 , and short of its recent top at
$1.0895.
Gold was holding at $2,340 an ounce , having recoiled 3.4% last
week and off an al-time peak of $2,449.89.
Oil prices were stuck near four-month lows amid concerns about
demand as the U.S. driving season gets underway this week. Investors are
waiting to see if OPEC+ will debate new
production cuts at an online meeting on June 2, though analysts doubt there
will be a consensus for a move.
Brent was up 18 cents at $82.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose
23 cents to $77.95 per barrel.
Asia shares creep higher as US, EU inflation data loom | Reuters
In other news, Iran announced an increase in
crude oil production but with no details.
Iran plans
to raise oil output to 4 million barrels per day — Tasnim
Iran has approved a
plan to raise its oil output to four million barrels per day, the country’s
Tasnim news agency said on Sunday, without providing a time frame.
“An economic council
headed by Iran’s interim president Mohammad Mokhber has approved a plan to
raise the country’s oil output from 3.6 million barrels per day to 4 million
barrels per day,” Tasnim added.
Iran is a major
producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Iran plans to raise oil output to 4 million barrels per day — Tasnim (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The Fed probably
won’t be delivering any interest rate cuts this summer
PUBLISHED SAT, MAY 25 2024 7:55
AM EDT
Investors likely will have to sweat out a summer
during which it looks increasingly improbable that the Federal Reserve will be
cutting interest rates.
A batch of stronger-than-expected economic data
coupled with fresh commentary from policymakers is pointing away from any
near-term policy easing. Traders this week again shifted futures pricing,
moving away from the likelihood of a reduction in rates in September and now
anticipating just one cut by the end of the year.
The broader reaction was not pleasant, with stocks
suffering their worst day of 2024 on Thursday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking what
had been a five-week winning streak ahead of the Memorial Day break.
“The economy may not be cooling off as much as the
Fed would like,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
“The market takes every bit of data and translates it to how the Fed sees it.
So if the Fed is data dependent, the market is probably more data dependent.”
Over the past week or so, the data has sent a
pretty clear message: Economic growth is at least stable if not on the rise,
while inflation is ever-present as consumers and policymakers alike remain wary
of the high cost of living.
Examples include weekly jobless claims, which a
few weeks ago hit their highest level since late August 2023 but have since receded back to a trend that has
indicated companies have not stepped up the pace of layoffs. Then there was a
lower-profile survey release Thursday that showed stronger than expected expansion in both the services and
manufacturing sectors and purchase
managers reporting stronger inflation.
Both data points came one day after the release
of minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicating central bankers still lack the
confidence to cut and even an unspecified few saying they could be open to
hiking if inflation gets worse.
On top of that, Fed Governor Christopher Waller earlier in the week said he would need to see several months’ worth of data
indicating that inflation is easing before agreeing to lower rates.
Put it together, and there’s not much reason for
the Fed to be easing policy here.
More
The Fed probably won't deliver any interest rate cuts
this summer (cnbc.com)
Global
Services Inflation to Remain Sticky, Slowing Pace of Rate Cuts
Wed 22
May, 2024 - 11:20 ET
Fitch Ratings-London-22 May 2024: Global
inflation rates are falling but their descent is being hampered by stubborn
services sector price growth, says Fitch Ratings in a new report.
Inflation has slowed rapidly, helped by a
reversal of food and energy price inflation. Core goods inflation (excluding
food and energy) has also fallen and in many countries is now back to its
pre-pandemic trend of very low inflation rates or broadly stable prices. But
there are few signs of core goods prices declining outright. This means
services inflation will need to fall further for inflation to return
sustainably to target.
However, our analysis suggests services
inflation will remain “sticky”. Services industries are more labour-intensive
than the goods sector and tight labour markets and high wage inflation are
having a bigger impact. Productivity-adjusted wages (or unit labour costs) in
the services sector are still growing at well above pre-pandemic rates in the
US and Europe.
Material input costs also account for a much
lower share of total costs in services, and profit margins are higher. The
recent slowdown in material cost inflation is having a more muted impact on
services prices.
Housing costs are also contributing to high
services inflation, particularly in developed economies. Strong house price
growth in the pandemic has contributed – often with a considerable delay - to
high housing rental inflation, an important component of the services basket.
The price of services relative to goods had
increased steadily for decades before the pandemic, a pattern that was broken
in 2020 when goods prices surged. There are grounds for expecting relative
prices to return to their previous trend. If core goods prices remain
unchanged, US services prices would have to grow 5% annually for two more years
to revert to trend.
The Special Report “Services Prices Delaying
Return to Inflation Targets” is available via the link above and at www.fitchratings.com.
Global Services Inflation to Remain Sticky, Slowing Pace of Rate Cuts (fitchratings.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Arizona researcher
publishes study on COVID-19 vaccine and tinnitus
Sat, May 25, 2024 at 6:18 AM GMT+1
A newly published scientific study about the
COVID-19 vaccine found people with certain preexisting medical conditions were
more likely to report ringing in the ears after getting immunized.
Arizona researcher publishes study on COVID-19 vaccine
and tinnitus (yahoo.com)
Possible
links between Covid shots and tinnitus emerge
People who have developed life-altering
ringing in their ears after Covid vaccinations demand deeper investigation into
this potential side effect.
April
23, 2023, 10:00 AM GMT+1
Thousands of people say they've
developed tinnitus
after they were vaccinated against Covid.
While there is no proof yet that the vaccines caused the condition, theories
for a possible link have surfaced among researchers.
Shaowen Bao, an associate professor in the physiology department
of the College of Medicine at the University of Arizona, Tucson, believes that
ongoing inflammation, especially in the brain or spinal cord, may be to blame.
Bao, a longtime tinnitus
sufferer and a representative of the American Tinnitus
Association's scientific advisory board, has studied tinniuts for more than a
decade.
A Facebook group of people who developed tinnitus after getting
a Covid vaccine convinced Bao to look into the possible link. He ultimately
surveyed 398 of the group's participants.
The cases tended to be severe. One man told Bao that he couldn’t
hear the car radio over the noise in his head while driving.
Along with ringing in their ears, participants reported a range
of other symptoms, including headaches, dizziness, vertigo, ear pain, anxiety
and depression. Significantly more people first developed tinnitus after the
first dose of the vaccine, compared with the second.
This suggests "that the vaccine is interacting with
pre-existing risk factors for tinnitus. If you have the risk factor, you will
probably get it from the first dose," Bao said.
He is still analyzing the results and has not published any
preliminary findings.
Is there a link between vaccines and tinnitus?
As of Sunday, at least 16,183
people had filed complaints with the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention that they'd developed tinnitus, or ringing in their ears, after
receiving a Covid vaccine.
After internal reviews of the reports, the CDC "did not
find any data suggesting a link between Covid-19 vaccines and tinnitus,"
an agency spokesperson said in an email.
The CDC has not, however, made those
reviews public, as it did after looking into other possible vaccine side
effects, such as inflammation of the heart or myocarditis —
frustrating leading vaccine expert Dr. Gregory Poland, founder and director of
the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minnesota.
"Why has the CDC not done all of the research that they should do on this and published it?"
Poland said.
More
Covid vaccine side effects: Tinnitus may be linked to inflammation (nbcnews.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
How a ‘world-changing’ indoor solar cell promises
everlasting electronics
May 25, 2024
Every six seconds, in a
factory on the northern fringes of Stockholm, a top secret printer is spewing
out sheets worth thousands of euros apiece. Each one contains 108
miniature solar cells that will soon find their way into everyday gadgets –
from keyboards to headphones – that will fundamentally change how we interact
with technology. According to their creator, they will even force us to rethink
our relationship with light.
Sweden may
seem an unlikely location for a solar revolution, but the lack of light during
the winter months was one of the reasons for Exeger co-founder Giovanni Fili to
look beyond the Sun as the sole source of power for a photovoltaic cell. His
company’s breakthrough tech can harvest electricity from virtually any light
source, from direct sunlight to candlelight. It can even generate a charge from
moonlight, though it would take a while for it to be of much use.
“Like the
algae on the bottom of the ocean where it’s almost pitch black, we can make
efficient use of very few photons,” Fili tells The Independent. The
t-shirt he wears describes his company’s technology as “world-changing”,
capable of simultaneously addressing the global need for energy and some of our
planet’s greatest environmental challenges.
Indoor solar
panels have been around for decades. Solar-powered calculators were first
introduced in the 1970s, but the limitations of the amorphous silicon cells
they rely upon mean they are too low power, too fragile and too rigid to be
integrated into other products.
The latest
innovation stems from a discovery made in 1988 relating to dye-sensitised solar
cells (DSSC). A pair of scientists from UC Berkeley in California invented a
low-cost, high-efficiency cell that was both semi-flexible and
semi-transparent, which offered a pathway for commercial development of the
technology.
Just over 20
years later, Fili and fellow Exeger co-founder Henrik Lindström came up with a
new electrode material that offered 1,000 times better conductivity. The
breakthrough formed the basis of their Powerfoyle cells that are now being
produced at a commercial scale.
Exeger’s
Powerfoyle solar cells offer a radical departure from the traditional
glass-covered panels, eliminating the need for the silver lines you see on them
that serve as conductors. They are also not sensitive to partial shading, which
drastically reduces the efficiency of photovoltaic panels.
The patented
skin-like material can even morph into almost any material to allow for
seamless integration into a huge range of products, while remaining waterproof,
dustproof and shockproof.
“It works in
any light condition, it’s more durable than any other solar cell in the world,
it’s easy to manufacture, and it can imitate any surface – leather, carbon
fibre, wood, brushed steel. It’s also beautiful,” Fili says. “So we can
integrate into products that are already selling in the billions of units per
year.”
More
How a ‘world-changing’ indoor solar cell promises
everlasting electronics (msn.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Finally on this
holiday Monday, how the District of Crooks maths really works. Approx. 7
minutes. Enjoy.
Abbott
& Costello 2 Classic Bits $28 and Loafing
Abbott & Costello 2 Classic Bits $28 and Loafing (youtube.com)
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