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The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.
Milton Friedman.
Yes, it’s another key inflation data week in the USA, with Wednesday’s CPI release, likely a major indicator of when in 2024, if ever, Fed Chairman Powell’s Fedster’s will start cutting US interest rates.
Stocks never used to be central bank dependents, but since Fed Chairman Greenspan’s stocks bailout following Black Monday October 19, 1987, second guessing the Fed on which way to bet in stocks, has by 2024 become the only game in town.
Almost as important this week is President Biden’s
Joe Biden’s speech tomorrow, widely tipped to impose 100 percent tariffs on
Chinese made EVs, among other trade sanctions.
If Americans are going to be forced to save
planet Earth from catastrophe by driving EVs, they’re not going to be allowed
to drive cheap EVs, apparently.
Asia markets mixed as investors assess China
inflation data, await Japan GDP print
UPDATED MON, MAY 13 2024 11:47 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Monday as
investors assessed China’s stronger-than-expected April inflation data.
China’s consumer price index
climbed 0.3% year on year, beating Reuters estimates of a 0.2% rise.
The producer price index,
however, fell 2.5% year on year, more than the estimated 2.3% drop.
The data highlight for the week
will be Japan’s first-quarter GDP, which is expected to have contracted an
annualized 1.5%, according to a Reuters poll, likely jeopardizing the Bank
of Japan’s plans to raise interest rates.
India’s inflation figures will
also be out late Monday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation
in the world’s fifth largest economy to slow slightly to 4.8% in April, down
from March’s 4.85%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and
the broad-based Topix pared earlier declines to trade flat.
South Korea’s Kospi was
down 0.20%, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 1%.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 lost
0.2%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed
earlier declines to rise 0.4%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was trading
flat.
On Friday in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched
an eighth consecutive winning session and registered its best week of 2024. The
30-stock index added 0.32% during the session.
The S&P 500 climbed
0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite inched
lower by 0.03%.
Consumer sentiment data released
Friday morning showed a big uptick in inflation expectations, reining in
Investor enthusiasm.
The preliminary May reading for
the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 67.4, far
below a Dow Jones estimate of 76 and marking its lowest reading in about six
months.
Asia markets: China
CPI, retail sales, Japan GDP (cnbc.com)
European markets head for mixed open as traders
look ahead to latest U.S. inflation data
UPDATED MON, MAY 13 2024 12:35 AM EDT
European
markets are heading for a mixed open at the start of the new trading week, and
investors will be keeping a close eye on the latest U.S. inflation figures.
April’s consumer price index
report is due out on Wednesday, with traders hoping that a return to rate hikes
is largely off the table for the U.S. Federal Reserve despite a slew of
hotter-than-expected inflation prints recently.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets were
mixed as investors assessed China’s stronger-than-expected April inflation
data; China’s consumer price index climbed 0.3% year on year, beating Reuters
estimates of a 0.2% rise.
India’s inflation figures will
also be out late Monday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation
in the world’s fifth-largest economy to slow slightly to 4.8% in April, down
from March’s 4.85%.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Wall St Week Ahead
Earnings bolster US stocks, crucial inflation report looms
By Lewis Krauskopf May 10, 2024 11:10 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) -
A strong earnings season and blockbuster reports from tech industry titans
fueled a U.S. stock market rebound from the first real swoon of 2024. Next
week’s inflation data could determine whether the good vibes continue.
The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab is up over 9% for the
year, up near its late-March record high, following a 5% pullback that occurred
last month.
The bounce has overlapped with a stronger-than-expected
first-quarter reporting season for U.S. companies. With well over 80% of the
S&P 500 having reported results, companies are on track to have increased
earnings by 7.8%, well ahead of the April expectation of 5.1% growth, according
to LSEG IBES.
Still, some investors worry the rally could stall
without evidence that inflation is cooling again. While Fed Chairman Jerome
Powell has reassured markets the central bank is unlikely to raise rates
anytime soon, months of strong inflation have led to concerns that policymakers
will not cut them this year.
Strong earnings have “got investors feeling more
comfortable about being in this market," said Art Hogan, chief market
strategist at B Riley Wealth. However, “the trajectory of inflation is always
going to be important to us while we're in a cycle where we expect the next
thing for the Fed to do is to cut rates."
Inflation reports have
preceded market pivots in recent years, as the Fed has ramped up interest rates
to cool consumer inflation from four-decade highs hit in 2022. Most recently,
an April 10 release showing a third-straight month of stronger-than-expected
inflation was followed by a roughly two-week decline in stocks as it spurred
fears the Fed could raise rates this year.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the May 15 consumer price
index report will show an increase of 0.3% in April from the previous month.
Investors are also awaiting data on retail sales next week, as well as earnings
from Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab, Home Depot (HD.N), opens new tab and Cisco (CSCO.O), opens new tab.
“If the CPI report comes in
hotter, it's going to likely price out any rate cuts for 2024,” said Matthew
Miskin, co-chief investment strategist with John Hancock Investment Management.
“You may actually have to start talking about policy that's more restrictive if
(inflation) is too hot relative to expectations."
More
Wall St Week Ahead Earnings bolster US stocks, crucial inflation report looms | Reuters
In other real economy news.
Brazil floods kill 143, government announces emergency
spending
By Lisandra
Paraguassu May 12, 2024
11:45 PM GMT+1
PORTO ALEGRE, May 12
(Reuters) - The death toll from heavy rains in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state
rose to 143, up from 136 on the day before, the local civil defense government
body said on Sunday, as rains continue to pour on the state.
Another 125 people remain unaccounted for in the state, where
rivers are reporting rising levels. Weather service
Metsul called the situation "extremely worrying."
On Saturday evening the government announced around 12.1 billion
reais ($2.34 billion) in emergency spending to deal with the crisis that has
displaced more than 538,000 people in the state, out of a population of around
10.9 million.
With this new money, more than 60 billion reais in
federal funds has already been made available to the state, said the federal
government in a statement on Saturday.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said
the state will rebuild what was destroyed.
"We know that not everything can be recovered,
mothers have lost their children and children have lost their mothers,"
said Lula on social media X, in a statement to mark Mother's Day.
On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden issued a
statement, saying that his administration is in contact with Brazil's
government to provide assistance.
"Our thoughts and prayers are with the people
impacted by this tragedy and the first responders working to rescue and provide
medical care to families and individuals," said Biden.
More rain fell on Sunday and is expected on Monday.
Less than two weeks after the rains began, the state is again on alert with the
risk of water rising once more to record levels on the Guaiba lake, near the
capital Porto Alegre.
The state is at a
geographical meeting point between tropical and polar atmospheres, which has
created a weather pattern with periods of intense rains or drought.
Brazil floods kill 143, government announces emergency spending | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Stagflation
Delivered
May 10, 2024 1:26 PM ET
"Stag" and "Flation" must have been hanging out in Michigan, which is maybe why Jay
Powell and a few others couldn't see it last week at the FOMC press conference.
The data from the University of Michigan showed that consumer sentiment dropped to 67.4, down
from 77.2. Additionally, the survey showed that current conditions dropped to
66.5 from 76, while one-year inflation expectations surged from 3.2% to 3.5%,
and 5-10-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.1% from 3.0%.
The not-so-great thing is that the drop in
consumer sentiment is at a level that's typically associated with a recession
going back to 1978. This is not to say that we are in recession, but it's
associated with a recession, which could suggest that it feels like the economy
is in a recession to the survey respondents.
Meanwhile, current conditions have fallen to levels also
associated with recessions since 1978. Again, this is not to say that we are in
a recession, but it suggests that maybe that's how survey respondents feel.
The current conditions and sentiment declines in
May were among the largest drops in the series' history, going back to 1978.
The current conditions index fell by 10.2 points, while sentiment fell by 9.8
points over the one-month period.
In addition, one-year inflation expectations
increased to 3.5%, their highest level since November 2023 and a clear trend
that has increased over the past three months. Meanwhile, the 3-5 year outlook
for inflation expectations is 3.1%, which is not only up from a 2.8% rate in
March but also right back to the upper end of the series' upper bound since
2022.
So, while we don't
have an official metric to show that the US economy is in stagflation, the
signs of stagflation continue to grow. Yes, unemployment continues to be
historically low, but it has been trending higher over the past couple of
months. While it isn't at a worrying level yet, should it continue to rise, it
would undoubtedly add to the worries over stagflation in the US economy.
The three-month
moving average of the unemployment rate has risen by 40 bps off its lows over
the last 12 months. The Sahm Recession Indicator can signal the start of a
recession when it rises by 50 bps off its three-month moving average relative
low of the preceding 12 months.
The idea of stagflation in the US economy has
tended to be too easily dismissed by investors, with apparent signs of it
presently showing up in more and more of the data. The data from just last week
showed that productivity slowed dramatically in the first quarter. On the
seasonally adjusted index level, productivity has been non-existent since the
boost we got in the first six months of the pandemic. Yes, it rebounded in the
second half of 2023, but the index is just slightly higher than at the end of
2021.
More
Stagflation Delivered | Seeking Alpha
'Perfect storm' wiping out US restaurants with
Midwest hardest hit
May 12, 2024
Americans are eating out less as inflation weakens the dollars in their pocket, which
is leading to some harsh consequences for restaurants across the country.
Visits
to sit-down restaurants were down nearly five percent in 2023 from
the year prior, according to location analytics firm Placer.ai.
Even big metropolitan areas in the US known
for their great dining spots are struggling to maintain an environment where
it's profitable to run a restaurant.
Eater NY reported that over 40 bars and restaurants closed
in New York City from December 2023 to January 2024, with some of the
owners saying business simply never picked up after the COVID lockdowns in
2020.
But in a city where it would take a person over 22 years to eat at every
single restaurant, the problem isn't as pronounced.
In middle America, where there are fewer people
and household incomes are lower, almost all restaurants are feeling the
pressure of empty seats.
More
'Perfect
storm' wiping out US restaurants with Midwest hardest hit (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
New
COVID-19 subvariant group 'FLiRT' is now dominant in Canada. What to know about
symptoms, vaccines & more
Will
it cause another surge in cases? Here's what you should know.
May 10, 2024
A new family of COVID-19
subvariants dubbed the "FLiRT" variants is spreading
in Canada. Despite the playful nickname, these genetic
cousins of the Omicron subvariant JN.1 are becoming the
dominant strains nationwide, particularly the KP.2 subvariant.
COVID-19
data reporting shows that as of April 28, KP.2 made up for just
over 26 per cent of all COVID-19 cases in Canada.
Currently, COVID-19 activity
remains relatively low across Canada, with "very little COVID activity in
the vast majority of the country," according to Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an
infectious disease specialist. He told Yahoo Canada this is
evidenced by low wastewater signals, hospitalization rates and case positivity.
But, the new strains could change
that. How are the FLiRT subvariants, and KP.2, different than previous versions
of the virus? Read on for everything you need to know.
Global News reported the FLiRT
subvariants — KP.1, KP.2, and KP.3 — emerged from the JN.1 Omicron
subvariant, which has been dominant worldwide since the winter of
2023-2024. The name 'FLiRT' reflects specific genetic mutations in these
subvariants, infectious disease specialist Gerald Evans from Queen's University explained to the
publication.
"They are nicknamed FLiRT
mutations because the amino phenylalanine (abbreviated as F) replaces the amino
acid leucine (abbreviated as L), while the amino acid arginine (R) is replaced
by threonine (T)," he told Global News.
"And the 'I' is just in there to make it sound like a real word."
The World Health Organization
(WHO) said on Wednesday that KP.2 began circulating globally in
January and has additional mutations in the spike protein.
Dr. Bogoch told Yahoo
Canada that "this is the newest iteration of these mutations;
it's still under the Omicron umbrella."
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
Battery Market (CAGR) of 29.57%, Role of Artificial Intelligence in Survey
Design Innovations and Trends
Report Ocean May. 10, 2024 07:07
The latest research report, “Graphene Battery Market”, covers various
aspects of the industry, including market size, status, trends, and future
insights for the next 10 years. It provides a detailed analysis of competitors
and key market drivers, highlighting growth opportunities. The report includes
analysis of top players, revenue streams, CAGR status, as well as
SWOT and PESTLE analysis for each geographic region. This
comprehensive research combines qualitative and quantitative data from primary
and secondary sources. It aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the
current market scenario and the impact of COVID-19 on the industry. The report
thoroughly examines each segment of the market. ➤ Download Free Sample ➤
Download Free Sample of This Strategic Report with Industry
Analysis : https://reportocean.com/industry-verticals/sample-request?report_id=gc1920
The report’s in-depth market assessment and examination of client and furnish
chain dynamics features aid organizations in developing their sales, marketing,
and merchandising strategies. Additionally, the market look up shed moderate on
the business’s difficulties, market structures, prospects, the use of forces,
and aggressive environment.
The global graphene battery market is projected to grow at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.57% during the forecast period
2021-2027, according to the new report published by Report Ocean. The
report provides in-depth analysis and insights regarding the current global
market scenario, latest trends and drivers into global graphene battery market.
It offers an exclusive insight into various details such as market size, key
trends, competitive landscape, company share of market leaders, growth rate and
market segments.
More
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
You can only make money if you buy a product, whatever it is - maybe a currency, maybe wheat and maybe something else - at a relatively low price and sell it at a higher price than you buy it at. There's no other way to make money.
Milton Friedman.
(No
longer true. You can front run the Fed and the other central banks. )
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