Thursday 30 May 2024

Stocks, A Wobble, Rolling Over, Or The Top?

Baltic Dry Index. 1790 +06     Brent Crude  83.50

Spot Gold 2335           US 2 Year Yield 4.96 +0.02

In the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.

Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods.

H. L. Mencken.

While it’s to early to call it the end of the stocks bubble and AI Wall Street mania, to dinosaur Graeme it’s increasingly looking like harsh economic reality has returned in the stock casinos.

For a second day in a row, more stocks in the S&P 500 fell (400) than rose (100).  That to me, suggests that the smart money, (insiders) are selling out of stocks.

Possibly just to ride out a summer of increasing consumer stress. Possibly because some technical fast measures suggest that the US economy is entering recession. For a second consecutive day the US inverted yield curve flattened, though it's still inverted.  Often a sign of the US economy entering recession.

Normally, ahead of the all-important month-end tomorrow, the professional money manager sharks attempt to dress up stocks and stock indexes to boost money manager bonuses.

If stocks are rolling over, or even worse have put in a 2024 top, that will not happen as everyone starts scrambling to get out. Getting out will turn into a rout over the summer doldrums if stocks have put in a bubble top.


Japan’s Nikkei leads losses in Asia ahead of data deluge on Friday

UPDATED THU, MAY 30 2024 10:08 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets extended losses on Thursday, tracking Wall Street’s moves ahead of a slew of economic data from the region on Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 1.6%, while the broader Topix dropped 0.8%.

South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.72%, and the smaller cap Kosdaq slipped 0.3%.

Japan and South Korea will release industrial production figures on Friday, and China will release the official purchasing managers index for May. Inflation data for Japan’s capital city of Tokyo will also be released.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 extended declines from the previous session and fell 0.42%. Miners in Australia led the declines.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and mainland China’s CSI 300 index were trading near the flatline.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes fell, pressured by rising Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury note yield ticked higher for a second day, last trading above 4.6%.

Higher yields can lower the multiples investors are willing to pay for stocks, drive up borrowing costs, hurt consumer spending and make T-bills and money market funds more attractive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.06%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.74%, marking its first negative session of the previous three. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.58%, as Nvidia’s advance mitigated losses for the technology-heavy index.

Asia markets: South Korea, Japan industrial production, China PMI (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures slide as Salesforce tumbles on revenue miss and soft guidance: Live updates

UPDATED THU, MAY 30 2024 7:34 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures fell Wednesday night as shares of Salesforce slid on a quarterly revenue miss and soft guidance.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 276 points, or 0.7%. S&P 500 futures slid about 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.5%.

In extended trading, Salesforce plunged around 16% after missing revenue expectations for the fiscal first quarter. The company’s earnings and revenue outlook for the second quarter also fell short of the Street’s estimates. Retailer American Eagle Outfitters also declined about 10% after first-quarter revenue missed analysts’ forecasts.

During Wednesday’s session, the Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.6%, posting its worst session in May despite an 0.8% advance for Nvidia. The S&P 500 declined 0.7%, and the Dow slid nearly 1.1%. 

It was a notably difficult day for the equity markets. More than 400 stocks in the S&P 500 were negative on the day, and all 11 sectors tumbled. 

An uptick in the 10-year Treasury yield, which topped 4.6%, weighed upon investor sentiment, according to Ross Mayfield, Baird investment strategy analyst. Higher yields can be bad news for stock investors, as they reduce the multiples investors are willing to pay for equities and make safer investments, such as Treasury bills and money market funds, more attractive.

“We have a ‘higher for longer’ backdrop, which is not new news, but in the [current] catalyst vacuum, is weighing upon the average stock — particularly at an extended valuation like we’re currently at,” Mayfield said.

On Thursday, investors will be looking toward weekly jobless claims numbers. The second reading of the real gross domestic product for the first quarter is also due. The main event for economic data this week is the Friday release of the personal consumption expenditures price index report for April, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge 

Earnings season continues Thursday, with Best Buy and Dollar General set to announce quarterly results in the morning. Dell Technologies, Costco, Gap and Nordstrom will report earnings after the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Next, Reuters assesses US crop progress. My guess, an average crop but no bumper crops, assuming no heavy weather disruptions. 


Crop Watch: Great start in east, but excess water hampers west

By Karen Braun

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 28 (Reuters) - Wet weather last week in the western Corn Belt slowed field work and disrupted corn emergence in some areas, though fields further east, including those in Indiana and Ohio, are in excellent condition.

Crop Watch follows 11 corn and 11 soybean fields across nine U.S. states, including two each in Iowa and Illinois. The Ohio corn was planted last Monday, one day earlier than the field’s six-year average. The only Crop Watch field awaiting planting is the North Dakota soybeans.

That will make for the second-slowest Crop Watch planting pace of the past four years, but the effort is still a full week ahead of the slowest year, 2022.

The North Dakota producer reports planting progress early last week before rains shut everything down, but not much activity occurred in South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska. The northeast Nebraska location observed more than nine inches of rain last week.

Those northwest Corn Belt producers report some emergence issues due to saturation, but the Minnesota grower, for example, notes his later-planted corn is looking great. Almost five inches of rain in western Iowa last week eroded soils and thinned some corn plants, but soybeans there are doing well.

Crop Watch producers in the I-states plan to spray crops this week as planting is mostly finished, assuming sufficient drying, which is likely mid-week. Most of the Corn Belt may face wetter weather again toward the weekend, though next week might feature the dry weather many areas need.

The Kansas producer is also spraying corn this week and plans to harvest wheat about 15 days earlier than normal as the crop has moved quickly to maturity. Rains were light in Kansas last week and many growers focused on sowing sorghum.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday afternoon will publish planting progress as of May 26. The date’s five-year average for corn is 82%, 10-year is 90%, and the five-year-average weekly gain is 11 percentage points. Corn was 70% planted on May 19 versus a five-year average of 71%.

For soybeans, the five-year average May 26 pace is 63%, the 10-year average is 66%, and the five-year-average weekly gain is 14 percentage points. Beans were 52% planted on May 19, some three points ahead of the five-year average.

U.S. soybean planting has been ahead of the five-year average this entire spring, though corn was as much as five points ahead in April before falling as much as five points behind by mid-May.

The following are the states and counties of the 2024 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota soybeans are in Griggs County and the corn is in Stutsman County.

Crop Watch: Great start in east, but excess water hampers west | Reuters

Finally in EV news, nothing good.

US seeks records from Tesla in power steering loss probe

By David Shepardson 

The auto safety regulator, which upgraded its investigation in February, said in a letter dated Tuesday to Tesla and posted on its website that it wants Tesla's records by July 24 about the steering components.

The request includes Tesla's process for identifying problems and creating solutions for potential defects. The agency also wants to know whether Tesla has made any changes to power steering components or plans any in the next four months.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

The investigation covers about 334,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from the 2023 model year and comes after the agency received 115 reports of loss of steering control.

The agency said the reports include steering or related failures, or steering becoming "stuck," "locked," or "immovable" or requiring high or increased effort. Other reports include "notchy" or "clicky" steering and steering-related error messages or warnings.

NHTSA, which had opened a preliminary evaluation in July 2023 into loss of steering control reports in 280,000 Tesla Model 3 and Y vehicles, said in February it identified a total of 2,388 complaints.

Reuters reported in December that tens of thousands of owners had experienced premature failures of suspension or steering parts since 2016, citing Tesla documents and interviews with customers and former employees.

The Tesla documents showed that the automaker sought to blame drivers for frequent failures of suspension and steering parts it has long known were defective, Reuters reported.

Some Tesla owners reported an inability to turn the steering wheel while others reported an increase in required effort. NHTSA said it is aware of over 50 vehicles allegedly towed as a result of the problem.

Tesla has had nine recalls in the United States for steering and suspension issues since 2018, NHTSA records show.

US seeks records from Tesla in power steering loss probe | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fed's Kashkari wants significant progress on inflation before rate cuts

May 28, 2024

(Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with CNBC broadcast on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates.

"Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back," Kashkari told CNBC in an interview when asked about the conditions that are needed for the Federal Reserve to cut rates once or twice this year.

Kashkari told CNBC that the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further.

In April, Kashkari said he had penciled in two interest rate cuts this year at the U.S. central bank's March meeting but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end.

U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend at the start of the second quarter.

Fed's Kashkari wants significant progress on inflation before rate cuts (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, for a change, how other nations are currently advising on Covid.

DOH: PH still at low risk for COVID-19, even amid ‘FliRT’ variants

May 29, 2024

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Health (DOH) maintained that the Philippines remains at low risk for COVID-19, even with the assumption that the “FLiRT” variants are “likely” present in the country.

“Data as of May 20, 2024 show that all Philippine regions remain to be at low risk for COVID-19,” the DOH said in a statement late Tuesday night.

“There is still no scientific basis for travel restrictions to any country because of an increase in COVID-19 cases,” it added.

The DOH said as of May 20, the average number of daily reported coronavirus cases in the Philippines is 202, significantly less than the average 500 registered at the start of 2024, as well as the 1,750 per day in the middle of May 2023.

Of these cases, only 16 were recorded to have been severe or critical, with 12 deaths of which 5 occurred from May 7 to 20.

Meanwhile, as of May 18, only 12 percent of dedicated COVID-19 ICU beds and 14 percent of total COVID-19 beds were occupied, while the total 151 severe and critical COVID-19 cases in various hospitals account for only 9 percent of total admissions.

FLiRT variants

The “FLiRT” variants refer to KP.2 and KP.3, which have been tagged by the World Health Organization (WHO) as variants under monitoring.

Both variants descend from the JN.1 subvariant, which was responsible for COVID-19 infection increase early 2024.

According to the DOH, sequencing efforts are constantly being conducted by the University of the Philippines – Philippine Genome Center and the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine to detect the presence of these variants.

“Whether or not sequencing shows variants flagged by global health agencies, the DOH assumes the flagged Omicron subvariants (i.e. KP.2, KP.3) are already likely here, and notes that cases continue to be clinically mild and manageable,” said the DOH.

Citing WHO, the DOH also said that there is currently “no reported laboratory or epidemiological reports indicating any association between variants of interests/variants under monitoring and increased disease severity.”

“There is still no evidence now that the KP.2 and KP.3 variants are causing severe to critical COVID-19, both locally and internationally. Further assessment continues to determine transmissibility and capacity to evade immune response,” the DOH said.

With this, the DOH advised the public to wear masks, practice good respiratory hygiene, regularly wash hands, avoid crowded places, and ensure ventilation to avoid contracting the virus.

DOH: PH still at low risk for COVID-19, even amid ‘FliRT’ variants (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

EV maker Tesla breaks ground on Megapack energy storage battery factory in Shanghai

The Associated Press May 28, 2024

BEIJING  — Electric vehicle maker Tesla has begun construction of a factory in Shanghai to make its Megapack energy storage batteries, Chinese state media reported recently.

The $200 million plant in Shanghai’s Lingang pilot free trade zone will be the first Tesla battery plant outside the United States.

Tesla opened an EV plant in Shanghai in 2019 that assembles cars for China, Europe and other overseas markets. It is the No. 2 seller in the booming Chinese market for electric vehicles. The market leader is Chinese auto company BYD.

The state-run Xinhua News Agency lauded Tesla’s commitment to investing in China and “defying the rhetoric of ‘decoupling’ and ‘de-risking’ from China.”

It said the factory was slated to start mass production in early 2025, with an initial capacity of 10,000 Megapack units a year.

According to Tesla’s website, each Megapack can store more than 3.9 megawatt hours of energy — enough to power an average of 3,600 homes for one hour. They are designed mainly for utility companies and commercial facilities.

Such storage units have become increasingly important with the growth in solar and wind energy, which only generate electricity when weather conditions are favourable and need to store it for when residential and commercial users need it.

China is by far the world leader in installing wind and solar capacity, making it a major market for energy storage.

EV maker Tesla breaks ground on Megapack energy storage battery factory in Shanghai (constructconnect.com)

Next, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.    

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.

H. L. Mencken. 

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