Baltic
Dry Index. 1790 +06 Brent Crude 83.50
Spot Gold 2335 US 2 Year Yield 4.96 +0.02
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods.
H. L. Mencken.
While it’s to early to call it the end of the stocks bubble and AI Wall Street mania, to dinosaur Graeme it’s increasingly looking like harsh economic reality has returned in the stock casinos.
For a second day in a row, more stocks in the S&P 500 fell (400) than rose (100). That to me, suggests that the smart money, (insiders) are selling out of stocks.
Possibly just to ride out a summer of increasing consumer stress. Possibly because some technical fast measures suggest that the US economy is entering recession. For a second consecutive day the US inverted yield curve flattened, though it's still inverted. Often a sign of the US economy entering recession.
Normally, ahead of the all-important month-end tomorrow, the professional money manager sharks attempt to dress up stocks and stock indexes to boost money manager bonuses.
If stocks are rolling over, or even worse
have put in a 2024 top, that will not happen as everyone starts scrambling to
get out. Getting out will turn into a rout over the summer doldrums if stocks
have put in a bubble top.
Japan’s Nikkei leads losses in Asia ahead of
data deluge on Friday
UPDATED THU, MAY 30 2024 10:08 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets extended losses on Thursday, tracking Wall Street’s moves ahead of a
slew of economic data from the region on Friday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell
about 1.6%, while the broader Topix dropped 0.8%.
South Korea’s Kospi shed
0.72%, and the smaller cap Kosdaq slipped 0.3%.
Japan and South Korea will
release industrial production figures on Friday, and China will release the
official purchasing managers index for May. Inflation data for Japan’s capital
city of Tokyo will also be released.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 extended
declines from the previous session and fell 0.42%. Miners in Australia led the
declines.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and
mainland China’s CSI 300 index were trading near the flatline.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
fell, pressured by rising Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury
note yield ticked
higher for a second day, last trading above 4.6%.
Higher yields can lower the
multiples investors are willing to pay for stocks, drive up borrowing costs,
hurt consumer spending and make T-bills and money market funds more
attractive.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
1.06%, while the S&P 500 dipped
0.74%, marking its first negative session of the previous three. The Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.58%, as Nvidia’s advance mitigated losses for the technology-heavy index.
Asia markets: South
Korea, Japan industrial production, China PMI (cnbc.com)
Stock futures slide as Salesforce tumbles on
revenue miss and soft guidance: Live updates
UPDATED THU, MAY 30 2024 7:34 PM EDT
U.S. stock
futures fell Wednesday night as shares of Salesforce slid on a quarterly
revenue miss and soft guidance.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped
276 points, or 0.7%. S&P 500
futures slid
about 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures fell
0.5%.
In extended trading, Salesforce plunged
around 16% after missing revenue
expectations for the fiscal first quarter. The company’s
earnings and revenue outlook for the second quarter also fell short of the
Street’s estimates. Retailer American Eagle
Outfitters also
declined about 10% after first-quarter revenue missed analysts’ forecasts.
During Wednesday’s session, the Nasdaq Composite fell
about 0.6%, posting its worst session in May despite an 0.8% advance for
Nvidia. The S&P 500 declined
0.7%, and the Dow slid
nearly 1.1%.
It was a notably difficult day
for the equity markets. More than 400 stocks in the S&P 500 were negative
on the day, and all 11 sectors tumbled.
An uptick in the 10-year Treasury yield,
which topped 4.6%, weighed upon investor sentiment, according to Ross Mayfield,
Baird investment strategy analyst. Higher yields can be bad news for stock
investors, as they reduce the multiples investors are willing to pay for
equities and make safer investments, such as Treasury bills and money market
funds, more attractive.
“We have a ‘higher for longer’
backdrop, which is not new news, but in the [current] catalyst vacuum, is
weighing upon the average stock — particularly at an extended valuation like
we’re currently at,” Mayfield said.
On Thursday, investors will be
looking toward weekly jobless claims numbers. The second reading of the real
gross domestic product for the first quarter is also due. The main event for
economic data this week is the Friday release of the personal consumption
expenditures price index report for April, the Federal Reserve’s preferred
inflation gauge
Earnings season continues
Thursday, with Best Buy and Dollar General set to announce quarterly results in
the morning. Dell Technologies, Costco, Gap and Nordstrom will report earnings
after the bell.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Next, Reuters assesses US crop progress. My guess, an average crop but no bumper crops, assuming no heavy weather disruptions.
Crop Watch: Great
start in east, but excess water hampers west
By Karen Braun May 28, 2024
4:34 PM GMT+1
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 28 (Reuters) - Wet weather last week in the
western Corn Belt slowed field work and disrupted corn emergence in some areas,
though fields further east, including those in Indiana and Ohio, are in
excellent condition.
Crop Watch follows 11 corn and 11 soybean fields across nine U.S.
states, including two each in Iowa and Illinois. The Ohio corn was planted last
Monday, one day earlier than the field’s six-year average. The only Crop Watch
field awaiting planting is the North Dakota soybeans.
That will make for the second-slowest Crop Watch planting pace of the
past four years, but the effort is still a full week ahead of the slowest year,
2022.
The North Dakota producer reports planting progress early last week
before rains shut everything down, but not much activity occurred in South
Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska. The northeast Nebraska location observed more
than nine inches of rain last week.
Those northwest Corn Belt producers report some emergence issues due to
saturation, but the Minnesota grower, for example, notes his later-planted corn
is looking great. Almost five inches of rain in western Iowa last week eroded
soils and thinned some corn plants, but soybeans there are doing well.
Crop Watch producers in the I-states plan to spray crops this week as
planting is mostly finished, assuming sufficient drying, which is likely
mid-week. Most of the Corn Belt may face wetter weather again toward the
weekend, though next week might feature the dry weather many areas need.
The Kansas producer is also spraying corn this week and plans to harvest
wheat about 15 days earlier than normal as the crop has moved quickly to
maturity. Rains were light in Kansas last week and many growers focused on
sowing sorghum.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday afternoon will publish
planting progress as of May 26. The date’s five-year average for corn is 82%,
10-year is 90%, and the five-year-average weekly gain is 11 percentage points.
Corn was 70% planted on May 19 versus a five-year average of 71%.
For soybeans, the five-year average May 26 pace is 63%, the 10-year
average is 66%, and the five-year-average weekly gain is 14 percentage points.
Beans were 52% planted on May 19, some three points ahead of the five-year
average.
U.S. soybean planting has been ahead of the five-year average this
entire spring, though corn was as much as five points ahead in April before
falling as much as five points behind by mid-May.
The following are the states and counties of the 2024 Crop Watch corn
and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt,
Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford,
Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota soybeans are
in Griggs County and the corn is in Stutsman County.
Crop Watch: Great start in east, but excess water
hampers west | Reuters
Finally in EV news, nothing good.
US seeks records from
Tesla in power steering loss probe
By David Shepardson May 29, 2024 6:28 PM GMT+1
The
auto safety regulator, which upgraded its investigation in February, said in a
letter dated Tuesday to Tesla and posted on its website that it wants Tesla's
records by July 24 about the steering components.
The request includes Tesla's process for identifying problems and
creating solutions for potential defects. The agency also wants to know whether
Tesla has made any changes to power steering components or plans any in the
next four months.
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.
The investigation covers about 334,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from
the 2023 model year and comes after the agency received 115 reports of loss of
steering control.
The agency said the reports include
steering or related failures, or steering becoming "stuck,"
"locked," or "immovable" or requiring high or increased
effort. Other reports include "notchy" or "clicky" steering
and steering-related error messages or warnings.
NHTSA,
which had opened a preliminary evaluation in July 2023 into loss of steering
control reports in 280,000 Tesla Model 3 and Y vehicles, said in February it
identified a total of 2,388 complaints.
Reuters reported
in December that tens of thousands of owners had experienced
premature failures of suspension or steering parts since 2016, citing Tesla
documents and interviews with customers and former employees.
The
Tesla documents showed that the automaker sought to blame drivers for frequent
failures of suspension and steering parts it has long known were defective,
Reuters reported.
Some Tesla owners reported an inability to turn the steering wheel while
others reported an increase in required effort. NHTSA said it is aware of over
50 vehicles allegedly towed as a result of the problem.
Tesla has had nine recalls in the United States for steering and
suspension issues since 2018, NHTSA records show.
US
seeks records from Tesla in power steering loss probe | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed's Kashkari wants significant progress on
inflation before rate cuts
May
28, 2024
(Reuters) - Minneapolis
Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with CNBC
broadcast on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank should wait for significant
progress on inflation before cutting interest rates.
"Many
more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that
it’s appropriate to dial back," Kashkari told CNBC in an interview when
asked about the conditions that are needed for the Federal Reserve to cut rates
once or twice this year.
Kashkari told
CNBC that the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails
to come down further.
In April,
Kashkari said he had penciled in two interest rate cuts this year at the U.S.
central bank's March meeting but if inflation continues to stall, none may be
required by year end.
U.S. consumer
prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed
its downward trend at the start of the second quarter.
Fed's Kashkari wants significant progress on inflation before rate cuts (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, for a change, how other nations are currently advising on Covid.
DOH: PH still at low risk for COVID-19, even amid
‘FliRT’ variants
May 29, 2024
MANILA,
Philippines — The Department of Health (DOH) maintained that the Philippines
remains at low risk for COVID-19, even with the assumption that the “FLiRT”
variants are “likely” present in the country.
“Data
as of May 20, 2024 show that all Philippine regions remain to be at low risk
for COVID-19,” the DOH said in a statement late Tuesday night.
“There is
still no scientific basis for travel restrictions to any country because of an
increase in COVID-19 cases,” it added.
The DOH said
as of May 20, the average number of daily reported coronavirus cases in the
Philippines is 202, significantly less than the average 500 registered at the
start of 2024, as well as the 1,750 per day in the middle of May 2023.
Of these
cases, only 16 were recorded to have been severe or critical, with 12 deaths of
which 5 occurred from May 7 to 20.
Meanwhile, as
of May 18, only 12 percent of dedicated COVID-19 ICU beds and 14 percent of
total COVID-19 beds were occupied, while the total 151 severe and critical
COVID-19 cases in various hospitals account for only 9 percent of total
admissions.
FLiRT variants
The “FLiRT”
variants refer to KP.2 and KP.3, which have been tagged by the World Health
Organization (WHO) as variants under monitoring.
Both
variants descend from the JN.1 subvariant, which was responsible for COVID-19
infection increase early 2024.
According
to the DOH, sequencing efforts are constantly being conducted by the University
of the Philippines – Philippine Genome Center and the Research Institute for
Tropical Medicine to detect the presence of these variants.
“Whether
or not sequencing shows variants flagged by global health agencies, the DOH
assumes the flagged Omicron subvariants (i.e. KP.2, KP.3) are already likely
here, and notes that cases continue to be clinically mild and manageable,” said
the DOH.
Citing
WHO, the DOH also said that there is currently “no reported laboratory or
epidemiological reports indicating any association between variants of
interests/variants under monitoring and increased disease severity.”
“There is
still no evidence now that the KP.2 and KP.3 variants are causing severe to
critical COVID-19, both locally and internationally. Further assessment
continues to determine transmissibility and capacity to evade immune response,”
the DOH said.
With this, the
DOH advised the public to wear masks, practice good respiratory hygiene,
regularly wash hands, avoid crowded places, and ensure ventilation to avoid
contracting the virus.
DOH: PH still at low risk for COVID-19, even amid
‘FliRT’ variants (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
EV
maker Tesla breaks ground on Megapack energy storage battery factory in
Shanghai
The Associated Press May
28, 2024
BEIJING
— Electric vehicle maker Tesla has begun construction of a factory in
Shanghai to make its Megapack energy storage batteries, Chinese state media
reported recently.
The $200
million plant in Shanghai’s Lingang pilot free trade zone will be the first
Tesla battery plant outside the United States.
Tesla opened
an EV plant in Shanghai in 2019 that assembles cars for China, Europe and other
overseas markets. It is the No. 2 seller in the booming Chinese market for
electric vehicles. The market leader is Chinese auto company BYD.
The state-run
Xinhua News Agency lauded Tesla’s commitment to investing in China and “defying
the rhetoric of ‘decoupling’ and ‘de-risking’ from China.”
It said the
factory was slated to start mass production in early 2025, with an initial
capacity of 10,000 Megapack units a year.
According to
Tesla’s website, each Megapack can store more than 3.9 megawatt hours of energy
— enough to power an average of 3,600 homes for one hour. They are designed
mainly for utility companies and commercial facilities.
Such storage
units have become increasingly important with the growth in solar and wind
energy, which only generate electricity when weather conditions are favourable
and need to store it for when residential and commercial users need it.
China is by
far the world leader in installing wind and solar capacity, making it a major
market for energy storage.
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.
H. L. Mencken.
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