Baltic
Dry Index. 1876 +102 Brent Crude 82.96
Spot
Gold 2302 U S 2
Year Yield 4.81 -0.06
Sell in
May, go away, don’t return till Labor Day.
Old
Wall Street adage. (Defunct since Greenspan.)
While everyone and
their dog are busy watching the stock casinos, there seems to be trouble
brewing in the global food supply chain. While it’s still a little too early to
know for certain, the global agriculture sector warrants close attention this
year.
While price rationing
will solve any scarcity issues, price rationing brings social instability
risks. For more scroll down to the next section.
In the stock casinos, it's back to bubble on. We will all get rich front
running the Fed and other central banks interest rate cuts.
Besides, at least
according to the latest employment numbers from the US Bureau of Lying Labor
Statistics, everything is better than perfect in the US economy. Yet again the
Sahm Rule for recessions wasn’t triggered.
What could possibly go wrong?
Well food price inflation, for starters, plus a UK swinging left and
a rump EU swinging right, and rising turmoil over Gaza across the USA and
planet Earth.
Though “sell in May,
go away,” has been defunct since Fed Chairman Greenspan brought in the era of unlimited Wall Street bailouts back in October 1987, to dinosaur Graeme, sell
in May, go away, has never looked more apt.
Dow jumps 450 points Friday as S&P 500 scores back-to-back weekly gains
By Christine Idzelis May 3, 2024
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Friday, as
Treasury yields fell after a softer-than-anticipated April jobs report.
- The Dow Jones Industrial
Average climbed 450.02 points, or 1.2%, to finish at 38,675.68.
- The S&P 500 gained 63.59
points, or 1.3%, to end at 5,127.79.
- The Nasdaq Composite jumped
315.37 points, or 2%, to close at 16,156.33.
For the week, the Dow climbed 1.1%, the S&P
500 gained 0.5% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.4%, according to Dow
Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each booked back-to-back weekly
gains, while the Dow rose for a third straight week to notch its largest weekly
rise since the stretch ending March 22.
In the bond market,
the yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined 17 basis points this week to
4.498%, the biggest weekly drop since December based on 3 p.m. Eastern time
levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Traders
Try to Front Run a Data-Dependent Fed
May 3, 2024 at 10:45 PM GMT+1
Wall Street traders trying to front run the Federal Reserve
should be happy this week is finally over. Having pulled money out of credit
and crypto as well as stocks when everyone went sideways over sticky
inflation, new data landed that arguably reaffirms the central bank’s economic
strategy. So on Friday, bears took it in the teeth as the S&P 500 and
Treasuries notched their first in-tandem weekly gain in a month, thanks largely
to softer USemployment data.
Financial markets these days find themselves in a
netherworld of divergent economic reports, and the players trying to surf them
to profit are getting drenched over and over again. On Tuesday, a broad gauge
of US labor costs rose by the most in a year, sending
yields on two-year Treasuries above 5%. Three days later, a Labor Department
report showed the smallest increase in wages since 2021, sending yields back
down. Recent reports suggest retail sales are surging along with slowing gross
domestic product. Industrial production has been rising while manufacturing has
been easing. Jobless claims are holding steady—yet hiring has ticked down.
Exhausted? We are.
Here are today’s top stories
Data
watchers can finally turn the
page on a troubling—but misleading— first-quarter of inflation and labor-market
data, Jonathan Levin writes in Bloomberg Opinion.
The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday marked the first major macro data dump
for the month of April, and it suggested that the US economy is still on its
trajectory of rebalancing labor markets, moderating wage growth and cooling inflation.
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Traders Try to Front Run a Data-Dependent Fed - Bloomberg
U.S.
job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while
unemployment rose to 3.9%
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 3 2024 8:30 AM EDT
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in
April while the unemployment rate rose, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve
will be able to cut interest rates in the coming months.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the
month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor
Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The
unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold
steady at 3.8%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous
month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an
encouraging sign for inflation.
The jobless rate tied for the highest level since
January 2022. A more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and
those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also edged up, to 7.4%, its
highest level since November 2021. The labor force participation rate, or those
actively looking for work, was unchanged at 62.7%.
----
Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000
increase.
Other sectors showing significant rises included
social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail
(20,000). Construction added 9,000 positions while government, which had shown
solid gains in recent months, was up just 8,000 after averaging 55,000 over the
previous 12 months.
Revisions to previous months took the March gain to
315,000, or 12,000 from the initial estimate, and February to 236,000, a
decline of 34,000.
More
Jobs report April 2024: U.S. job growth totaled
175,000 in April (cnbc.com)
Sahm rule
In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule,
or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the
United States' Federal Reserve for
determining when an economy has entered a recession.[1] It is useful in
real-time evaluation of the business cycle and
relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, formerly
of the Federal Reserve and Council of Economic
Advisors.
More
Real-time Sahm Rule
Recession Indicator
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)
| FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Finally, more news
from EV fantasy-land. See also the last YouTube item.
Don’t
rate Tesla’s Full Self Driving too highly, tech investor says: ‘By no means
autonomous driving’
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 3 2024 1:26 AM EDT
News of electric car giant Tesla’s progress toward rolling out its advanced
driver-assistance feature in China isn’t as groundbreaking as investors are
treating it, according to a top tech investor.
Mark Hawtin, GAM Investment
Management’s investment director focused on investing in disruptive growth
and technology stocks, told CNBC’ “Squawk Box Europe” Thursday that such
expectations were misleading — not least because Tesla’s Full Self Driving
service doesn’t offer full autonomous driving.
“We should say what they’re doing — everyone’s
talking about this full self-driving capability,” Hawtin told CNBC. “What
they’re going to be able to do in China is what they already do in the U.S. or
U.K., which is sort of this assisted-driver capability.”
On Monday, shares of Tesla rose sharply,
notching their best day since March 2021, after it passed a significant
milestone toward the launch of FSD in China. Local Chinese authorities removed restrictions on its cars after passing the country’s data security
requirements, Tesla said Sunday.
This raised expectations that Tesla’s FSD would
soon be available in China. Tesla shares are up 6.7% in the last five trading
days, largely on the back of buzz surrounding its roadmap to bringing FSD to
China — plus, comments from CEO Elon Musk about plans to start production of more affordable models in early 2025.
But Hawtin said that the company’s so-called Full
Self Driving service lacks the qualities that would make it an example of truly
self-driving technology.
“It’s by no means autonomous driving yet,” he told
CNBC. He thinks that a version of Tesla FSD capable of “true autonomy” is still
five to 10 years away.
More
Don't rate Tesla's Full Self Driving too highly, tech
investor says (cnbc.com)
The propensity to swindle grows parallel with the propensity to speculate during a boom the implosion of an asset price bubble always leads to the discovery of frauds and swindles.
Charles P. Kindleberger.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
In food price inflation news, it’s far to
soon to know what if anything, the massive flooding in Brazil’s southern state
of Rio Grande do Sul might mean for agriculture, but the state is a large producer
of corn (maize,) soybeans, (two crops,) and rice.
Early trouble with Russia’s wheat crop?
Heavy rains kill at least 10 in southern Brazil, governor
warns of historic disaster
By Reuters May 2, 20241 2:38 PM
GMT+1
May 1 (Reuters) - Ten people died and 21 are missing due to heavy rains
this week in Brazil's southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, with the local
government warning that the situation is critical and could deteriorate
further.
During a press conference on Wednesday, state governor Eduardo Leite
said he had spoken with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeking all
possible federal assistance.
"We are experiencing in Rio Grande do Sul the worst moment, the
worst disaster in our history. It is absolutely, absurdly, extraordinarily
serious what is happening in Rio Grande do Sul right now," Leite said.
"And unfortunately, it will get worse."
According to the governor, storms have caused the most extensive
devastation in the state in recent years, leaving several towns isolated after
bridges collapsed and roads were destroyed amid floods and mudslides.
Leite declared the suspension of classes statewide for the remainder of
the week and emphasized that he had requested full support from the armed
forces "to effectively participate in coordinating this moment, which is
akin to facing a war."
Authorities tallied over 3,400 displaced individuals in the wake of
storms that led to rising river levels and flooding in various parts of the
state, affecting 114 municipalities.
In a Tuesday report, the state's government predicted a flood risk
"across practically the entire state" given the prospect of continued
"heavy precipitation" in the coming days.
The bulletin also said flooding would be severe in the basins of many
rivers, with the possibility of flash floods and mass movements of earth in
regions with steep slopes.
Heavy rains kill at least 10 in southern Brazil,
governor warns of historic disaster | Reuters
Cooler May could rescue Russian wheat crop after record-hot
April
By Karen Braun May 3, 2024 9:05 AM GMT+1
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 2 (Reuters) - Global wheat prices earlier this
week retreated from multi-month highs as Russia’s parched crop was finally due
for some rain, but those rains were somewhat dismal and the forecast is dry
again, threatening to curb the top exporter’s harvest.
Average-to-cool temperatures are expected for southern Russia in the
first half of May following record April warmth, and the cooldown could be key
in avoiding significant crop losses amid an unusually dry spring.
Southern Russia,
which grows more than 30% of the country’s annual wheat crop, experienced its
driest April in a decade as precipitation amounted to just a quarter of the
month’s normal. Temperatures were likely record for April, nearly 10 degrees
Fahrenheit (5.4 degrees Celsius) above average.
Such a dry and
warm April combination has not been observed in southern Russia in at least
three decades. The closest instance was 2012, when Russia’s all-wheat yield
notched its worst relative performance of the post-Soviet era.
Dryness may
continue for southern Russia as weather models on Thursday pegged May rainfall
at about two-thirds of normal by mid-month, but average or below-average
temperatures should prevail. Russia’s best overall wheat yields generally occur
amid cooler Mays in the south, sometimes offsetting moisture deficits.
Another potential
saving grace for southern Russian crops is well above-average soil moisture so
far this year. Soil moisture is also solid in regions that grow spring wheat,
which makes up about 27% of Russia’s total wheat harvest. July is the critical period
for that crop to maximize yield.
Russian
agricultural consultancy Sovecon two weeks ago estimated the 2024 wheat crop at
93 million metric tons, close to last year’s levels, and other analysts hold a
similar view. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will provide its first
official forecast next Friday.
More
Cooler May could rescue Russian wheat crop after
record-hot April | Reuters
Corn hits 3-month high; soy, wheat climb on global crop
weather woes
U.S. corn futures rose on Friday to their highest level since late
January before paring gains and soybeans reached a one-month peak as floods
disrupted harvests in top exporter Brazil and disease ate into Argentina’s corn
crop, analysts said.
Wheat futures hit a one-week high on renewed concerns over dry weather
in Russia, the world’s biggest wheat supplier.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July corn settled up 1/2 cent at $4.60-1/4
per bushel after climbing to $4.68, the contract’s highest level since Jan. 26.
Corn sales by U.S. farmers increased starting on Thursday as the contract
broached $4.60, brokers said.
CBOT July soybeans settled up 16 cents on Friday at $12.15 a bushel and
July wheat rose 18-1/4 cents to finish at $6.22-1/2 a bushel.
Corn and soybean prices were supported by flooding in Brazil’s Rio
Grande do Sul, where the harvest is in its final stages. The state is Brazil’s
second-largest producer of soybeans and sixth-largest producer of corn.
In Argentina, corn stunt disease spread by leaf-cutter insects and
adverse weather prompted the Buenos Aires grains exchange to slash its estimate
for Argentina’s 2023/24 corn harvest by 3 millions metric tons to 46.5 tons.
Worries about labor issues added support. ”’Tis the season for strikes
in Argentina,” said Susan Stroud, an analyst at NoBullAg.com, referring to
strikes disrupting work at the country’s grain ports.
In wheat, Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy cut its forecast for
the country’s crop to 91 million metric tons from 93 million tons and its wheat
exports to 50.5 million metric tons from 52 million tons.
Wheat futures jumped as weather forecasts showed the region getting
virtually no rain in the coming two weeks.
Russian weather and a weaker U.S. dollar have brought “a confluence of
end-user, commercial-related buying here,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of
Global Commodity Analytics.
There and in South America, “Mother Nature has dealt the trump card of
cutting supplies.”
Managed money funds held a net short position in CBOT wheat futures at
the beginning of 2024 because of a strong dollar and slow U.S. demand, Zuzolo
said.
“Now both of these things are being re-evaluated.”
Corn
hits 3-month high; soy, wheat climb on global crop weather woes (cnbc.com)
The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Families
'give up legal action' against Astrazeneca after Covid vaccine blood clot
deaths
May 3, 2024
Several families who
attempted to sue Astrazeneca after loved ones died after taking its covid-19 vaccine have reportedly given up their legal action.
Twelve families have dropped
their cases against the pharmaceutical company, the Telegraph has been reported, after being told they would likely lose.
Among them is Gareth Eve
whose wife Lisa Shaw, a BBC presenter, died due to complications from taking
the vaccine in 2021.
The father-of-one told
the BBC in April last year that
legal action was the only option of moving forward, adding: “We're not
crackpots or conspiracy theorists, we're husbands and wives and family members
who have lost somebody - that's all it is.
“Whatever
the money is, it's not going to bring my son's mam back.”
They have reportedly given up their action as the leaflet given out at
vaccine centres warned that: “Extremely rare cases of blood clots with low
levels of platelets have been observed following vaccination with Covid-19
vaccine Astrazeneca.”
Around one in 50,000 vaccine recipients under the age of 50 were said to
be at risk of getting the blood clot with low platelets. This compares to
around one in 12,500 dying in childbirth and one in 100,000 dying after
receiving a general anaesthetic.
The Telegraph said that there
are still more than 50 active cases against Astrazeneca from those who were not
warned about the blood clot potential.
There have been at least 80
blood clot related deaths of people who have had the jab.
The
Government’s vaccine damage payment scheme entitles
people who suffer adverse reactions that lead to death or a 60 per cent
disability a one-off payment of £120,000.
Mr Eve said this was not
enough with many having died or been forced out of work.
He added: “It’s like the
Government and Astrazeneca have wriggled off the hook on a technicality when
you just think, ‘come on, what is the right thing to do here?’
“In my opinion there is a
battle here that needs to be had, but I’m not even able to do that
anymore.”
Sarah Moore,
a partner at law firm Leigh Day, added: “We feel desperately sorry for Gareth
and the other families affected.
“These cases
should not have to be fought through the courts. If there was a functioning
support scheme, then litigation wouldn’t be necessary.”
More
Families 'give up legal action' against Astrazeneca
after Covid vaccine blood clot deaths (msn.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Lithium-free
sodium batteries exit the lab and enter US production
C.C. Weiss May 02, 2024
Two years ago, sodium-ion battery pioneer Natron Energy was
busy preparing
its specially formulated sodium batteries for mass production. The
company slipped a little past its 2023 kickoff plans, but it didn't fall too
far behind as far as mass battery production goes. It officially commenced
production of its rapid-charging, long-life lithium-free sodium batteries this
week, bringing to market an intriguing new alternative in the energy storage
game.
Not only is sodium somewhere between 500 to 1,000 times more
abundant than lithium on the planet we call Earth, sourcing it doesn't
necessitate the same type of earth-scarring extraction. Even moving beyond the
sodium vs lithium surname comparison, Natron says its sodium-ion batteries are
made entirely from abundantly available commodity materials that also include
aluminum, iron and manganese.
Furthermore,
the materials for Natron's sodium-ion chemistry can be procured through a
reliable US-based domestic supply chain free from geopolitical disruption. The
same cannot be said for common lithium-ion materials like cobalt and nickel.
Sodium-ion
tech has received heightened interest in recent years as a more reliable,
potentially cheaper energy
storage medium. While its energy density lags behind lithium-ion, advantages
such as faster cycling, longer lifespan and safer, non-flammable end use have
made sodium-ion an attractive alternative, especially for stationary uses like
data center and EV charger backup storage.
More
Lithium-free
sodium batteries exit the lab and enter US production (newatlas.com)
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World
Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Music for a wet Bank Holiday from the mid-18th
century. Approx. 10 minutes.
SOLER
ANTONIO 1729 1783 Fandango L'Arpeggiata, Christina PLUHAR
SOLER ANTONIO 1729 1783 Fandango L'Arpeggiata,
Christina PLUHAR (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
"Immortal
Territory!" || The Unnecessary Queen Sacrifice
"Immortal
Territory!" || The Unnecessary Queen Sacrifice (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s final YouTube diversion, Approx. 8 minutes.
Dealers
CAN'T Sell EVs Anymore So They're FORCED To Do This!
Dealers
CAN'T Sell EVs Anymore So They're FORCED To Do This! (youtube.com)
Stability leads to instability. The more stable things become and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.
Hyman Minsky.
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