Stocks, Was That It? War? Nvidia Or Bust?

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No one party can fool all of the people all of the time; that's why we have two parties.

Bob Hope.

Did the stock casinos just run out of greater fool buyers? Did stocks priced to perfection just reach perfection? Did stocks priced to infinity and beyond, just get to beyond?

Has sell in May, go away, suddenly returned after decades of “Bubbles” Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen massive debt fuelled stocks inflation mal-investment?

Stick around, this summer of 2024 we are about to find out. Nvidia or bust?

Of course, when things really go upside down in the Anglo-American economies, the usual remedy has been to start a war.

A colonial war under the old British Empire regime.  Localised wars against Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan under the American Empire regime in place since 1945.

But who to start a war with in 2024?

Russia, China, Israel, North Korea and Iran are off limits as nuclear powers.  Cuba and Venezuela wouldn’t make much of a difference.

Still, with Uncle Scam wracking up a trillion dollars of new unrepayable debt every hundred days or so, a dollar crisis/fiasco gets closer every hundred days.

Asia markets mostly fall after tech stocks lift Nasdaq to record highs

UPDATED TUE, MAY 21 2024 11:02 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets largely fell on Tuesday after tech shares pushed the Nasdaq Composite to record highs overnight.

Nvidia shares gained more than 2% on multiple bullish analyst calls that highlighted the company’s preeminent market position.

Several Wall Street firms also increased their price target on the AI darling ahead of its earnings report, suggesting shares could gain as much as 30% from their current levels.

Investors in Asia will be watching for any spillover effect on companies linked with Nvidia’s value chain, such as Taiwan’s TSMC and Foxconn, as well as South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.34%, while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.15%.

Japan’s stocks rose, with the Nikkei 225 continuing its run above the 39,000 mark and gaining 0.29%. The broad-based Topix was up 0.21%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.17% as investors assessed the minutes of its central bank May meeting, which revealed the RBA considered raising rates due to higher inflation risks.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.86%, while the CSI300 on mainland China dropped 0.24%.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the broader market, as JPMorgan Chase slumped.

Shares of JPMorgan declined 4.5% as CEO Jamie Dimon signaled during the bank’s annual investment meeting that his retirement may be sooner than previously stated. Dimon also said the bank would not buy back shares at their current levels.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.65% to close at a record 16,794.87. The 30-stock Dow fell 0.49%, while the broad market S&P 500 inched up 0.09%.

Asia markets mostly fall after tech stocks lift Nasdaq to record highs (cnbc.com)

European markets head for lower open as positive momentum fades

UPDATED TUE, MAY 21 2024 12:27 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a lower open Tuesday, reversing more positive sentiment seen at the start of the week.

Asia-Pacific markets largely fell overnight after tech shares pushed the Nasdaq Composite to record highs Monday. The index was boosted by Nvidia, which rallied 2.5% as investors geared up for the artificial intelligence titan’s Wednesday earnings report. The broad S&P 500 inched up nearly 0.1%. U.S. stock futures were near flat Monday night.

European markets open to close, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq Composite hits all-time high: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, MAY 21 2024 7:23 PM EDT

Stock futures are near flat Monday night after the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high.

Futures connected to the Nasdaq 100 slipped about 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost just 19 points, while S&P 500 futures also sat near its flatline.

In after-hours action, Palo Alto Networks dropped roughly 8%. While beating expectations for both lines in the fiscal third quarter, the cybersecurity company delivered current-quarter guidance that was only in line with consensus forecasts of analysts polled by LSEG.

Those moves come after a mixed day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq Composite notched a new intraday and closing high, rising about 0.7%. The index was lifted by Nvidia, which rallied 2.5% as investors geared up for the artificial intelligence titan’s Wednesday earnings report. The broad S&P 500 inched up nearly 0.1%.

But the blue-chip Dow slipped almost 200 points, or 0.5%. The 30-stock index was dragged down by a 4.5% drop in JPMorgan after CEO Jamie Dimon said his retirement may be sooner than expected and that the financial giant would not repurchase many shares at their current prices.

Monday’s action follows a notable week on Wall Street amid renewed hopes about the state of inflation and monetary policy. The Dow ended Monday’s session below the closely watched 40,000 level, after closing above it for the first time last week.

“The disinflation story is still intact,” said Keith Buchanan, portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.

“The market’s going to continue to drift higher if earnings can confirm the stickiness of the corporate profitability,” he added. But “that could lead to a market where we could be somewhat range bound, perhaps even drift lower.”

In that vein, investors will monitor speeches from several Federal Reserve speakers including Governor Christopher Waller, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Traders will be watching closely for any insights into the future path of interest rates.

Economic data on nonmanufacturing is also due Tuesday. On the earnings front, investors will follow reports expected from retailers Lowe’s and Macy’s before the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Nvidia earnings could spark $200 billion swing in shares, options show

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed  May 21, 2024 6:10 AM GMT+1

NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - Traders are pricing in a big move for Nvidia’s shares after the chipmaker reports earnings on Wednesday, though expectations for volatility are more muted than in the past, U.S. options markets show.

Nvidia's options are primed for an 8.7% swing in either direction by Friday, according to data from options analytics firm Trade Alert. That would translate to a market cap swing of $200 billion - larger than the market capitalization for about 90% of S&P 500 companies.

While massive by most measures, that implied move would fall far short of the 16.4% jump Nvidia’s shares notched after the company’s most recent quarterly earnings report. It is also less aggressive than the average 12% move traders had priced for the last eight quarters.

"Volatility and expectations had been a fair amount higher the last time around," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group.

Nvidia, up about 87% this year, is seen as a bellwether of the burgeoning AI industry and has a market value of about $2.3 trillion, making it the third-largest company on Wall Street, behind Microsoft and Apple. Wall Street is betting on a blowout quarterly report from Nvidia.

More

Nvidia earnings could spark $200 billion swing in shares, options show | Reuters

Finally, yet another warning about US deficits and unsustainable Federal debt growth. The trouble is no one in the District of Crooks is listening, nor has any intention of fixing the debt problem. Stay long gold for the inevitable dollar crisis ahead. See London Irvine Report: CBDCs

Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets

PUBLISHED SUN, MAY 19 2024 6:50 AM EDT

Government debt that has swelled nearly 50% since the early days of the Covid pandemic is generating elevated levels of worry both on Wall Street and in Washington.

The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. As a portion of the total U.S. economy, it is now more than 120%.

Concern over such eye-popping numbers had been largely confined to partisan rancor on Capitol Hill as well as from watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. However, in recent days the chatter has spilled over into government and finance heavyweights, and even has one prominent Wall Street firm wondering if costs associated with the debt pose a significant risk to the stock market rally.

“We’re running big structural deficits, and we’re going to have to deal with this sooner or later, and sooner is a lot more attractive than later,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks Tuesday to an audience of bankers in Amsterdam.

While he has assiduously avoided commenting on such matters, Powell encouraged the audience to read the recent Congressional Budget Office reports on the nation’s fiscal condition.

“Everyone should be reading the things that they’re publishing about the U.S. budget deficit and should be very concerned that this is something that elected people need to get their arms around sooner rather than later,” he said.

Indeed, the CBO numbers are ominous, as they outline the likely path of debt and deficits.

The watchdog agency estimates that debt held by the public, which currently totals $27.4 trillion and excludes intragovernmental obligations, will rise from the current 99% of GDP to 116% over the next decade. That would be “an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history,” the CBO said in its most recent update.

Surging budget deficits have been driving the debt, and the CBO only expects that to get worse.

More

Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK inflation set to fall close to 2% target in lowest reading for three years

Some forecasters even think April's inflation figure could go below 2 per cent - raising the prospect of an interest rate cut in June

May 20, 2024 6:00 am(Updated 7:05 am)

Inflation could finally go below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for the first time in three years when April’s figure is unveiled this week.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation has been above 2 per cent in every monthly reading since July 2021, reaching a peak of 11.1 per cent in 2022.

But after years of high price rises hitting consumers’ wallets, the number could now be back at 2 per cent – or even below – when official figures for the year to April are released on Wednesday morning.

Inflation could finally go below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for the first time in three years when April’s figure is unveiled this week.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation has been above 2 per cent in every monthly reading since July 2021, reaching a peak of 11.1 per cent in 2022.

But after years of high price rises hitting consumers’ wallets, the number could now be back at 2 per cent – or even below – when official figures for the year to April are released on Wednesday morning.

“Second, food inflation shaves another 0.14 percentage points off overall inflation, as fading commodity-price rises pass through to consumers.”

However, forecasters generally expect core inflation – which does not include more volatile measures of inflation such as changes to food and energy pries – to be higher than 2 per cent.

Oxford Economics expects this figure to be 3.7 per cent – down from 4.2 per cent in March – and Deutsche Bank expects it to be 3.6 per cent.

Despite the fall, many experts have warned that inflation is set to rebound later in the year and go back above the target.

More

UK inflation set to fall close to 2% target in lowest reading for three years (inews.co.uk)

BRAZIL FLOODS LIKELY TO AFFECT FUTURE CROP SEASONS
May 17, 2024

By Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc project

Bloomberg's Clarice Couto reported Wednesday that "catastrophic floods in Brazil will have long-lasting impacts for agriculture, with soaked soils making it harder for farmers to plant crops including rice and wheat for next season."

"Growers in Rio Grande do Sul will likely be forced to shift away from their traditional crops and into new cultures, according to Silvia Massruhá, head of agricultural research agency Embrapa," Couto reported. "Wheat output, already forecast to drop 4.3% in the state in the season that was supposed to start this month, could be even lower after the floods."

"'There will be a need for rearranging agriculture and feedstock activities in that region,' Massruhá said in an interview this week," according to Couto's reporting. "'The soil has soaked up a lot of water, so we don't know what share of rice or wheat farmers will be able to plant the next crop or if they will need to plant something else before until the soil recovers.'"

Current State of the Floods

ABC News' Leah Sarnoff reported Tuesday that "persistent rains and destructive flooding continue to wreak havoc in Brazil, with officials saying rising river levels signal further damage in the Rio Grande do Sul region. As of Tuesday, 149 people were confirmed dead in the flood-stricken southern state, with 124 individuals still unaccounted for, according to civil defense officials."

"More than 600,000 people have been displaced from their homes, with approximately 155,000 of those homes being destroyed, officials said," according to Sarnoff's reporting. "In total, local agencies say 2.1 million people have been directly affected by the ongoing climate crisis in Rio Grande do Sul. The Guaíba River in Porto Alegre, the capital city of Rio Grande do Sul, could reach unprecedented levels of over 18 feet in the next few days, according to local officials."

Ag Losses So Far

Couto reported that "about 1 million metric tons of soybeans may have been lost in Rio Grande do Sul, the US Department of Agriculture said Friday in a report. Brokerage StoneX Group Inc. said the impact could be three times bigger."

"Carlos Cogo, an independent agricultural adviser, said tractor and truck losses will also prevent farmers from planting wheat as previously planned," Couto reported. "That would mean an even bigger loss than the 4.3% decline to almost 4.2 million metric tons supply agency Conab on Tuesday forecast for the 2024-25 season."

Other examples of agriculture related disruptions include "at least two chicken and pork facilities (that) remain suspended, while others are facing partial interruptions, industry group ABPA said," Couto reported. "...Soybean processor Bianchini SA's facility in Canoas has been flooded, putting at risk almost 100,000 tons of oilseed in storage. The company also suspended production at the plant."

"Cargill Inc. resumed soybean crushing at its Cachoeira do Sul facility after two days of interruptions," Couto reported. "Some activities such as biodiesel production remain halted as flood-blocked roads constrain shipments."

Entire Farms Destroyed

Reuters' Lisandra Paraguassu and Leonardo Benassatto reported that "the despair in Nilton Muradaz Junior's eyes is unmistakable as he looks at the vast lake that was once his farm and home, but now shows little sign of the animals, equipment and buildings he lost in the floods devastating Brazil's southernmost state."

"'For the dream and life that we created here to be taken away like this is heartbreaking. I don't even have words,' said Muradaz Junior, whose cattle herd was reduced to 13 head," Paraguassu and Benassatto reported. "Only four of his 20 English thoroughbreds survived."

"He said he doesn't know where to start rebuilding his life until he can fully assess the damages caused by the floods," Paraguassu and Benassatto reported. "'People need to become aware of climate change as quickly as possible so that we still have a chance of not having this happen again in an even more serious way,' he said."

AgriMarketing.com - Brazil Floods Likely To Affect Future Crop Seasons

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Covid-19 vaccine death of Rory Nairn: Report highlights failures in informing consumers of risks

May 20, 2024

The death of a Dunedin man may have been prevented if he had been given more information before consenting to the Covid vaccination that later claimed his life.

That’s according to findings released by Coroner Sue Johnson today following Rory Nairn’s death from myocarditis in 2021.

And, in a second report also released today, the pharmacy where he was given the vaccination has been found to have breached his right to information, but the Health and Disability Commissioner won’t be taking disciplinary action due to the unprecedented circumstances of a worldwide pandemic.

Health and Disability Commissioner Morag McDowell has released her report concerning Nairn’s death, which the Coroner had earlier determined was directly caused by the Comirnaty (Pfizer/BioNTech) Covid-19 vaccine.

Nairn experienced chest discomfort and heart flutters following his vaccination at a pharmacy in November 2021 but was unaware that myocarditis was a potentially serious side effect.

The symptoms persisted for 12 days before he decided to go to the hospital but tragically, he collapsed and died before reaching medical help.

Following his death in November 2021, the Commissioner received a referral from the coroner highlighting key issues to be investigated.

Nairn’s parents and partner argued that he did not give informed consent due to the lack of information about the risks, such as myocarditis.

They acknowledged that while vaccinators were provided with considerable information, the specific risks were not adequately highlighted, and they believed this issue was widespread among vaccinators, not just specific to the pharmacy.

In July 2021, a person died from myocarditis after receiving the vaccine and MedSafe issued an alert to providers to inform consumers of this risk on July 21, 2021.

In the following months, Manatū Hauora (the National Immunisation Programme (NIP)) sent a significant volume of information to providers about the vaccine including 12 updates within three weeks.

Information about myocarditis was embedded in subsets of the information.

“There’s a million documents that are coming through and… we are doing the best that we can to see through everything that comes through and when it’s a link within a link, within a link you can only do the best you can,” the pharmacy manager previously told the coroner’s court investigation.

More

Covid-19 vaccine death of Rory Nairn: Report highlights failures in informing consumers of risks (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene, a wondrous material, starts to prove useful

First Published18 May 2024

Graphene is strong, lightweight, flexible and an excellent conductor of electricity. In the 20 years since it was first isolated at the University of Manchester, however, it has also proved dispiritingly light in useful applications. That is slowly beginning to change, as its remarkable properties keep researchers well-stocked with inspiration. For Krzysztof Koziol at Cranfield University in Britain, for example, what began as a covid-era plan to use graphene to improve surgical gloves has now morphed into a project to use high-altitude balloons to launch satellites into space.

Graphene, which consists of monolayers of carbon atoms bonded in a repeating hexagonal pattern, can be made in a number of ways, mostly by stripping flakes of carbon from mined graphite (sticky tape and pencil lead will do). Levidian Nanosystems, a Cambridge firm, uses a more sustainable process. It captures methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from various industrial sources, and then zaps it with microwaves inside a reaction chamber. This cracks the gas into its constituent parts, with hydrogen emerging at the top and graphene flakes at the bottom.

Dr Koziol leads a team of researchers who work with Levidian on a variety of graphene-based applications, from reinforcing aircraft, cars and wind turbines to lining gas pipelines. In 2019, they also worked with Meditech Gloves, a Malaysian firm, to improve its surgical and examination gloves. 

More

Graphene, a wondrous material, starts to prove useful | Mint) (livemint.com)

Next, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.    

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

I like thieves. Some of my best friends are thieves. Why, just last week we had the president of the bank over for dinner.

W. C. Fields.