Baltic
Dry Index. 1844 +27 Brent Crude 84.06
Spot
Gold 2438 US
2 Year Yield 4.83 +0.05
"If you bet on a horse that's gambling.
If you bet you can make three spades, that's
entertainment.
If you bet cotton will go up three points,
that's business. See the difference."
Blackie Sherrord, gambler.
In the stock casinos, it’s still
bubble on, AI hype and mania. But to
dinosaur Graeme, are the US ETFs a red flag signalling smart money exiting
fearing a top?
In commodity sector action, have
the central banks fiat money saturation triggered 1970s 2.0?
Is smart money already rotating out
of stocks and into fixed supply commodities?
Perhaps.
With two economic lunatics
vying for power in the USA for the next four years, this may be as good as it
gets for the stock casinos, as a new commodities super-cycle gets underway, as
an ocean of ever more created fiat money tries to preserve wealth by grabbing
up limited supply, much needed commodities with intrinsic value.
Asia markets
track Wall Street gains; China holds loan prime rates
UPDATED MON, MAY 20 2024 12:03 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose Monday, tracking Wall Street gains, as investors await
economic data from across the region this week.
China held its one- and five-year
loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively, after the country
laid out measures on Friday to boost its property market. The five year LPR is
the reference rate for housing mortgages.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.51% after the announcement, while the mainland Chinese CSI300 gained 0.42%.
Investors await trade, inflation
and business activity data out from Japan later this week, while Singapore will
release its April inflation data and final figures for its first-quarter gross
domestic product.
apan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
1.5%, while the broad-based Topix gained 1.21%.
South Korea’s Kospi rose
1.09%, but the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 1.02%. The country’s central bank will
release its rate decision later this week on Thursday.
Investors will also keep an eye
on Taiwan as Lai Ching-te takes over formally as the island’s new president,
with the Taiwan Weighted
Index up
marginally.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 advanced
0.59%.
On Friday in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
Friday above the key 40,000 level for the first time.
The Dow first hit the 40,000
level during Thursday’s trading session, but cinched its first close over the
threshold a day later when it added 134.21 points, or 0.3%, to end at
40,003.59.
The S&P 500 inched
0.1% higher Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped
by less than 0.1%.
This market rally should continue
at least in the short term, according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat
Global Advisors. Lee highlighted Microsoft Build event from
Tuesday to Thursday stateside, and Nvidia’s
fiscal first-quarter results due Wednesday as potential
catalysts.
Asia markets: China
LPR, Japan CPI, PMI, trade balance (cnbc.com)
European markets
set to start the new trading week on a positive note
UPDATED MON, MAY 20 2024 12:31 AM EDT
European
markets are heading for a positive open at the start of the new trading week,
building on positive momentum seen last week.
Global markets got a boost last
week after U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected for April,
bolstering hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates later
in the year.
U.S. stock futures ticked higher
on Sunday night, after the Dow
Jones Industrial Average closed above the key 40,000 level for
the first time ever on Friday.
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets
mostly rose overnight, tracking Wall Street gains, as investors await economic
data from across the region this week, including Japanese inflation and
business activity figures.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
tick higher after Dow closes above 40,000 for the first time: Live updates
UPDATED MON, MAY 20 2024 9:34 PM EDT
U.S. stock
futures ticked higher on Sunday night, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
above the key 40,000 level for the first time ever on Friday.
Futures
tied to the 30-stock index rose
by less than 0.1%. S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were
also marginally higher.
The Dow first hit the 40,000
level during Thursday’s trading session, but cinched its first close over the
threshold a day later when it added 134.21 points, or 0.3%, to end Friday at
40,003.59. The S&P 500 inched
0.1% higher Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped
by less than 0.1%.
This market rally should continue
at least in the short term, according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat
Global Advisors.
“As we stated earlier this month,
we expected markets to shift from ‘fear of May’ to buy in May; and as each week
has passed, this has been the case. Looking into next week, we expect this to
continue,” he wrote in an email.
Artificial intelligence names are
due to steal the spotlight this upcoming week, with Lee highlighting several
potential catalysts, including the Microsoft Build event from
Tuesday to Thursday and Nvidia’s
fiscal first-quarter results, due Wednesday afternoon.
“Overall, we expect these
events/earnings to reinforce the improving visibility and capabilities of AI
and the related spending. And as a consequence, will be an overall positive for
Technology stocks and the broader market,” the analyst added.
---- The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s
April 30 to May 1 meeting are due on Wednesday. Investors will also watch out
for the latest readings on several pieces of economic data including existing
home sales, jobless claims and durable goods orders.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Technology stocks are
once again leading the way in 2024. Why these ETFs tell a different story.
U.S. stocks are on a
seemingly relentless upward trajectory with robust gains from megacap
technology companies propelling the S&P 500 to multiple all-time highs this
year. Some of the most popular ETFs that track those stock sectors haven’t kept
pace, leading to significant gaps between their returns and the indexes they
are designed to mirror.
While the S&P 500
communication-services sector XX:SP500.50 was
the top performer among the 11 sectors of the large-cap benchmark index so far
in 2024, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund XLC has
lagged behind the index it tracks by 6.6 percentage points, according to
FactSet data.
Similarly, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK has
underperformed the S&P 500 information-technology sector XX:SP500.45 by
nearly 5 percentage points this year. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
SPDR Fund XLY has
fallen behind its tracked index XX:SP500.25 by
nearly 3 percentage points over the same period, according to FactSet
data.
As a result, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund XLU, aligned
with its sector index’s remarkable resurgence in
recent months, has outperformed all the other SPDR sector ETFs in
2024, according to FactSet data (see table below).
More
Tech stocks lead the charge in 2024. Why these ETFs offer a different tale. - MarketWatch
Finally, how much further has the
Comex copper squeeze to run? Too much central bankster fiat money chasing a
limited supply of “cheap” copper, or a return to the inflationary commodities
1970s??
Ferocious
CME copper squeeze presages future turbulence
By Andy Home May 17, 2024 3:08 PM GMT+1
LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) -
The copper rally turned ugly this week, morphing into a ferocious short squeeze
on the U.S. contract operated by CME Group (CME.O), opens new tab.
CME cash copper hit a record high of $5.1775 a lb, or $11,414 a
metric ton, on Wednesday amid extreme tightness in near-dated time-spreads.
The premium over the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper contract
ballooned to more than $1,000 per ton, an unprecedented disconnect in Atlantic
pricing.
CME has
raised margins, opens new tab to calm the market
wildness.
The yawning arbitrage should facilitate a re-direction of
physical metal towards the United States but it may take time, leaving shorts
little immediate option other than to roll positions forward at painful cost.
Shorts have been crushed by a wall of investment money surging
into the copper market. More will follow.
Canada's Sprott Asset Management has just filed a prospectus for
a physically-backed copper fund, highlighting the renewed investor interest in
the metal.
But can the market handle so much speculative
money? This week's events suggest Doctor Copper could be in for some very
turbulent times.
CME short-position holders
have been caught standing in the path of an investment freight train.
Commodity traders Trafigura and IXM are reported to be diverting metal to
the United States to cover positions.
Both are big players in the physical copper market but small relative to the amount of fund money entering the market on the long side.
Money mangers turned net bullish on CME copper in
February and had already lifted outright long positions to six-year highs as of
the close of business on May 7. More momentum-based funds are likely to have
joined the fray on the last leg higher.
Investment fund long positions on the LME copper
contract stretched to 99,215 lots, almost two and a half million tons, at the
end of last week, the most bullish positioning since the LME started publishing
the data at the start of 2018.
Analysts at Citi estimate an eye-watering $25
billion of speculative bull money has washed into the two exchanges since
February.
More
Ferocious CME copper squeeze presages future
turbulence | Reuters
1970s commodities boom
The 1970s
commodities boom refers to the rise of many commodity prices in the 1970s. Excess demand was created with money supply increasing too
much and supply shocks that came from Arab–Israeli
conflict, initially between Israel and Egypt. The Six-Day War where Israel captured
and occupied
the Sinai Peninsula for 15 years, the Closure
of the Suez Canal (1967–1975) for 8 years of that, lead to supply shocks.
66% of oil consumed by Europe at that time came through the Suez Canal and had to be redirected
around the continent of Africa.[1] 15% of all maritime trade passed
through the Suez Canal in 1966, the year before it closed.[2]
More
1970s commodities boom - Wikipedia
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Jamie
Dimon delivers startling message about inflation
May 19, 2024
When JPMorgan Chase's Chief Executive
Jamie Dimon talks, financial markets listen.
He helms the world's largest U.S. and
fifth-biggest bank, with $4.1 trillion of assets. Dimon, 68, has made his name
steering several banks through tough times and taking advantage of
opportunities as they arise.
For example, when First
Republic Bank collapsed last year, Dimon and JPMorgan swept in, picking up the bank and its wealthy
customers on the cheap.
Bank analysts fawn over him. “I think he’s been
phenomenal,” veteran bank analyst Dick Bove told this reporter last year. “I’m a Jamie
Dimon groupie. He’s done a great job everywhere he has worked.”
---- So, you might be interested to hear what Dimon says about
inflation, the number one economic issue of the past few years.
The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, a popular inflation measure,
has remained sticky above 3% since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. The Federal
Reserve’s inflation target is 2%, though it uses a different price indicator,
the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE, as its preferred
inflation gauge.
Financial
markets celebrated on Wednesday when the government announced that CPI
inflation registered 3.4%, down from 3.5% in March. Stocks and bond prices rose
as some investors grew more enthusiastic about the possibility that lower
inflation would soon clear the way for a Fed interest-rate cut.
But central bank officials have said that rates will
likely stay higher for longer. “Holding our restrictive stance for longer is
prudent at this point, as we gain clarity about the path of inflation,”
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Thursday.
Interest-rate futures
indicate the Fed will not trim rates until September, according to the CME
FedWatch Tool. Money management titan Vanguard is sticking to its view that the
central bank will not move at all this year.
The
most recent economic data “underscore just how far we remain from what we’d
call evidence of sustainable progress in the inflation fight,” said Roger
Aliaga-Diaz, Vanguard’s chief Americas economist.
Jamie Dimon, too is concerned
about inflation. “There are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us,” he told Bloomberg Television. “The
underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to.”
He said the higher rates accompanying inflation could
also be a problem. “If you have higher rates and—God forbid—stagflation, you
will see stress in real estate, leveraged companies, and private credit,” Dimon
said.
Jamie
Dimon delivers startling message about inflation (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Ex-CDC Director Says It’s High Time to Admit ‘Significant Side Effects’
of COVID-19 Vaccines
‘We
kind of got cancelled because no one wanted to talk about the potential that
there was a problem from the vaccines,’ Dr. Robert Redfield said.
5/17/2024 Updated: 5/17/2024
Dr. Robert
Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC), said Thursday that many officials who tried to warn the public about
potential problems with COVID-19 vaccines were pressured into silence and that
it’s high time to admit that there were “significant” side effects that made
people sick.
Dr. Redfield
made the remarks in a May 16 interview with Chris Cuomo on NewsNation, during
which he lamented the loss of public confidence in public health agencies
because of a lack of transparency around the vaccines, which he said “saved a
lot of lives” but also made some people “quite ill.”
“Those of us
that tried to suggest there may be significant side effects from vaccines ...
we kind of got canceled because no one wanted to talk about the potential that
there was a problem from the vaccines, because they were afraid that that would
cause people not to want to get vaccinated,” Dr. Redfield said.
In his role as
head of the CDC, Dr. Redfield was part of the Trump administration’s Operation
Warp Speed, a project to surge COVID-19 vaccine development at a time during
the pandemic when little was known about the virus and rapid vaccine rollout
was widely seen as key to getting the outbreak under control and lockdowns
lifted.
In September
2020, a few months before the first COVID-19 vaccines were given in the United
States, Dr. Redfield testified before the Senate that COVID-19 represented the
“most significant public health challenge to face our nation in more than a
century,” and that the prevailing view among scientists at the time was that
the overall case fatality rate of the disease was somewhere between 0.4 and 0.6
percent in the United States.
“If you were to
look right now, individuals under the age of 18, it’s about 0.01 percent, 19 to
say 69, it’s more like 0.3 percent. And if you’re over the age of 70, it’s
about 5 percent now,” he testified at the time.
In his
interview on NewsNation, Dr. Redfield said that the vaccines that were
developed as part of Operation Warp Speed were “important” and saved “a lot of
lives.” However, despite their benefits, the drawbacks of the vaccines must be
a matter of open discussion, he said.
“They’re
important for the most vulnerable people, those over 60, 65 years of age. They
really aren’t that critical for those that are under 50 or younger. But those
vaccines saved a lot of lives, but they also—we have to be honest, some people
got significant side effects from the vaccine,” he said.
“I have a number of people that are quite
ill and they never had COVID, but they are ill from the vaccine,” he continued.
“And we just have to acknowledge that.”
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today,
something different. Thinking about buying a used Hertz unwanted EV? Beware.
Approx. 11 minutes.
DON'T
buy one of Hertz's old Teslas! MGUY EV News 17 May 2024 | MGUY Australia
DON'T
buy one of Hertz's old Teslas! MGUY EV News 17 May 2024 | MGUY Australia
(youtube.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to
public office."
Aesop.
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