Baltic Dry Index. 1361 -14 Brent Crude 74.14
"I
cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot
conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern ship building
has gone beyond that."
Captain
Smith, Commander of Titanic
With much of Asia on
holiday today, and much of Europe closed tomorrow, today’s attempt to dress up
the month end stock numbers might fast become a meaningless flash in the pan.
At midnight tonight the EU’s temporary exemption to US steel and aluminium tariffs
expires, with the Europeans closing ranks to retaliate. It they do in fact
retaliate, President Trump has threatened retaliation against Europe’s auto
exports, which would be devastating to Germany, the EU’s leading economy. In
trade wars nobody wins, although not everyone losses to the same degree or at
the same time.
Adding to the coming
storm problem, President Trump has promised to walk away from America’s nuclear
treaty commitment with Iran within the next 12 days, casting doubt on the value
of America’s other signed treaties, and the reliability of future treaties. The
other signatories to the Iran treaty are furious, and promising to keep trying
to uphold it.
But if Uncle Sam renegs, Iran is threatening to reneg as well. By
the end of the week, crude oil might well be trading in the 80s.
Below, an unpromising
start to our week for the global economy.
Icebergs
dead ahead!
The Ed.
April 30, 2018 / 2:06 AM
Asian shares climb as Korea tensions ease, earnings boom
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares extended
gains on Monday as tensions in the Korean Peninsula eased and first-quarter
earnings shone, although some investors were cautious about the outlook amid
the backdrop of a simmering U.S.-China trade dispute.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS climbed 0.9 percent after gaining more than 1 percent on Friday. The index is poised to eke out a modest rise this month after two consecutive losses.
South Korea's KOSPI index .KS11 rose 0.6 percent and is set to end April nearly 2.5 percent higher following record profits from tech giant Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and after a spectacularly successful inter-Korean summit.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI climbed 1.6 percent, Australia's benchmark index gained 0.5 percent while New Zealand shares .NZ50 gave up early losses to be up 0.3 percent.
Liquidity was low on Monday with Japan, China and India on holiday and much of Asia closed on Tuesday.
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European Leaders Reaffirm Commitment to Retaliate on Tariffs
By Carolynn Look
European
leaders reaffirmed their commitment to protect the region’s trade interests and
address elements of a nuclear accord with Iran, even as attempts to lobby the
U.S. president on those issues last week appeared to have failed.
France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Angela Merkel made separate trips to Washington in recent days to persuade President Donald Trump to grant the European Union a reprieve from U.S. tariffs, as well as remain in a nuclear deal. With no indications that Trump has eased his stance on either issue, Merkel and Macron discussed next steps with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May by phone this weekend, according to statements from Berlin and London.
“The three reiterated a preference for the United States to remain in the nuclear agreement with Iran,” German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said in one of the statements.
Trump has long signaled his displeasure with the nuclear pact, saying it offered relief to the Islamic Republic without addressing the country’s ballistic missile program or its support for groups the U.S. considers to be terrorist organizations.
The European leaders “reaffirmed their willingness to engage in a broader framework of additional agreements with all parties on the duration of nuclear restraints and other issues, in particular Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional role,” Seibert said.
They also agreed to maintain a firm stance on defending the European Union’s interests should the U.S. not grant the region a permanent exemption from tariffs on steel and aluminum. An initial exemption granted to the EU is set to expire Monday night, and Trump has insisted he wants economic or security concessions from countries seeking a permanent waiver.
Why investors should dread the month of May—especially this year
Published: Apr 29, 2018 12:45 p.m. ET
Mays during midterm years tend to be worse, historically speaking
The U.S. stock market is preparing to end a positive—but volatile—month of April, and investors may be hoping that performance in May is even better.History, however, suggests otherwise.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, May is typically a mixed month for the major indexes, and the results are particularly bad in midterm years, as is 2018.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.05% is typically flat over the month of May, historically speaking. Based on data that go back to 1950, it declines 0.02% over the month, the ninth-best monthly performance of the year. Over the past 67 years, the Dow had 35 Mays that were positive, and 32 that were negative.
For the S&P 500 SPX, +0.11% May is the eighth-best month of the year, rising an average of 0.2%. The past 67 years have seen 39 Mays where the benchmark index ends in positive territory for the month, and 28 when it declines.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.02% which is the top performer among the main U.S. gauges thus far this year, should continue that strength if history is any indication. May is the fifth-best month of the year for the tech-heavy index, rising an average of 0.9%. Over the past 46 years that data exists for, May has been a positive month for the Nasdaq in 26 of them.
“As the market is finally making rally attempt at the end of April, the past month of the ‘Best Six Months’ we are obligated to remind you that the ’Worst Six Months’ are now upon us,” wrote Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive officer of Hirsch Holdings, and editor of the Almanac. “This bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years.”
The
“Worst Six Months” Hirsch was referring to is a historical idea, embodied by
the phrase “sell in May and go away,” that the stretch between the start of May
and the end of October tends to be a seasonally weak period for markets. While
this has been true over the long term, as seen in the following table that
looks at S&P 500 performance, the trend hasn’t held over the past five
years, according to the WSJ Market Data Group.
Thus far this month, the Dow is up 0.9% while the S&P 500 is up 1.1% and the Nasdaq has gained 0.8%. Historically, April is the best month of the year for the Dow. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 1.7%, the S&P is off 0.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 3.1%.
While history suggests the coming month’s moves will be quiet, there could be an element of uncertainty given the coming midterm election. Per the Almanac, the Dow falls 0.7% in Mays during midterm years, a far worse performance than the overall average 0.02% decline.
For the S&P and the Nasdaq, midterm years have historically been significantly worse than non-midterm years. The S&P declines 0.9% in midterm Mays, while the Nasdaq has historically lost 1.2%. Again, the overall average is a gain of 0.2% for the S&P 500, and a rise of 0.9% for the Nasdaq.
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"Many
brave things were done that night but none more brave than by those few men
playing minute after minute as the ship settled quietly lower and lower in the
sea...the music they played serving alike as their own immortal requiem and
their right to be recorded on the rolls of undying fame."
Lawrence
Beesley, Titanic Survivor
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, Comrade Agent Corbyn’s model economy, the
Socialist Workers Paradise of oil rich Venezuela. When fiat currencies go
wrong, in the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, communist money, destitution
sweeps the land. What happens to all of
us if populist communists take over as fiat currency systems fail.
‘Their Country Is Being Invaded’: Exodus of Venezuelans Overwhelms Northern Brazil
ACARAIMA, Brazil — Hundreds turn up each day, many arriving penniless
and gaunt as they pass a tattered flag that signals they have reached the
border.
Once they cross, many cram into public parks and plazas teeming with
makeshift homeless shelters, raising concerns about drugs and crime. The lucky
ones sleep in tents and line up for meals provided by soldiers — pregnant
women, the disabled and families with young children are often given priority.
The less fortunate huddle under tarps that crumple during rainstorms.
The scenes are reminiscent of the waves of desperate migrants who have
escaped the wars in Syria and Afghanistan, spurring a backlash in Europe. Yet
this is happening in Brazil, where a relentless tide of people fleeing the
deepening economic crisis in Venezuela has begun to test the region’s tolerance
for immigrants.
This month, the governor of the northern Brazilian state of Roraima sued
the federal government, demanding that it close the border with Venezuela and
provide additional money for her overburdened education and health systems.
“We’re very fearful this may lead to an economic and social
destabilization in our state,” said the governor, Suely Campos. “I’m looking
after the needs of Venezuelans to the detriment of Brazilians.”
The tens of thousands of Venezuelans who have found
refuge in Brazil in recent years are walking proof of a worsening humanitarian
crisis that their government claims does not exist.
They also constitute an exodus that is straining the
region’s largely generous and permissive immigration policies. Earlier this
month, Trinidad
deported more than 80 Venezuelan asylum seekers.
In Colombian and Brazilian
border communities, local residents have attacked Venezuelans in camps.
During the early months of this year, 5,000
Venezuelans were leaving their homeland each day, according
to the United Nations. At that rate, more Venezuelans are leaving home each
month than the 125,000 Cuban exiles who fled their homes during the 1980 Mariel
boat crisis and transformed South Florida.
----But as
their numbers have swelled — and as a larger share of recent migrants arrive
without savings and in need of medical care — some officials in the region have
begun to question the wisdom of open borders.
Ms. Campos said she took the “extreme measure” of suing the federal
government because the influx of Venezuelans led to a spike in crime, drove
down wages for menial jobs and set off an outbreak of measles, which had been
eradicated in Brazil.
At least 93 people were killed during the first four months of this
year, already exceeding the 83 violent deaths recorded last year, Ms. Campos
said. And law enforcement officials say drug trafficking in the region has
increased as destitute Venezuelans have been drafted into Brazilian smuggling
networks.
----As she
watched smoke billowing across the campsite, Ana García, 56, said she could
scarcely believe her new reality in Brazil.
She was a homeowner who ate well and lived comfortably on a social
worker’s salary in the Venezuelan city of Maturín. But as her paycheck became
worthless last year because of soaring inflation, she quit her job of more than
a decade, hoping to get a payout large enough to go abroad.
Instead, she walked away with an amount that was so little it only
enabled her to buy a small bag of rice, half a chicken and a banana. As food
became increasingly scarce, Ms. García set out on a nearly 600-mile journey
with her 18-year-old daughter, hitchhiking most of the way.
The first night she slept in the plaza, Ms. García said, she broke down
in tears before crawling under a black tarp she now shares with her daughter.
“I
never thought we could find ourselves in this situation. We’re not used to
living like indigents,” Ms. García said, her eyes welling. “But Venezuela is
destroyed. People are dying of hunger.”
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If you look in your
dictionary you will find: Titans - A race of people vainly striving to overcome
the forces of nature. Could anything be more unfortunate than such a name,
anything more significant?
Arthur Rostron,
Captain of the rescue ship Carpathia ('Home From The Sea' 1931)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Discovery of new material is key step toward more powerful computing
Date:
April 26, 2018
Source:
Oregon State University
Summary:
Researchers have created a new material that represents a key step toward the
next generation of supercomputers.
A new material created by Oregon State University researchers is a key
step toward the next generation of supercomputers.
Those "quantum computers" will be able to solve problems well
beyond the reach of existing computers while working much faster and consuming
vastly less energy.
Researchers in OSU's College of Science have developed an inorganic
compound that adopts a crystal structure capable of sustaining a new state of
matter known as quantum spin liquid, an important advance toward quantum
computing.
In the new compound, lithium osmium oxide, osmium atoms form a
honeycomb-like lattice, enforcing a phenomenon called "magnetic
frustration" that could lead to quantum spin liquid as predicted by
condensed matter physics theorists.
Corresponding author Mas Subramanian, Milton Harris Professor of
Materials Science at OSU, explains that in a permanent magnet like a compass
needle, the electrons spin in an aligned manner -- that is, they all rotate in
the same direction.
"But in a frustrated magnet, the atomic arrangement is such that
the electron spins cannot achieve an ordered alignment and instead are in a
constantly fluctuating state, analogous to how ions would appear in a
liquid," Subramanian said.
The lithium osmium oxide discovered at OSU shows no evidence for
magnetic order even when frozen to nearly absolute zero, which suggests an
underlying quantum spin liquid state is possible for the compound, he said.
"We are excited about this new development as it widens the search
area for new quantum spin liquid materials that could revolutionize the way we
process and store data," Subramanian said. "The quantum spin liquid
phenomenon has so far been detected in very few inorganic materials, some
containing iridium. Osmium is right next to iridium in the periodic table and
has all the right characteristics to form compounds that can sustain the quantum
spin liquid state."
More
Titanic sinks in REAL TIME - 2 HOURS 40 MINUTES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs9w5bgtJC8&t=1700s
Will the global economy do any better, when the trade war starts?
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.
DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down
10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13. SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March. For some a new bear signal, for
others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
