Wednesday, 11 April 2018

48 Hours to Exit? Another War?


Baltic Dry Index. 974 +22     Brent Crude 70.76

Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

The trade war and Facebook relief rally over, or almost over, will President Trump use his coming attack on Syria as cover to fire Special Prosecutor Mueller? He has the power, says the White House press machine.

Meanwhile the European air traffic control agency is warning airlines to be extra cautious if planning to keep flying in the eastern Mediterranean in the next 72 hours.  Would you board a plane with your family to fly over the eastern Med for any reason in the next 72 hours or longer?

Adding to reasons to exit global stocks ASAP, the highly respected US Dow Theory just finally gave a sell signal. The hurricane is just about to come ashore.
Will regime change in Damascus turn out any better than Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and the Ukraine? How many refugees is America willing to take in, or are they all headed to Germany yet again? Now new Trump National Security Advisor Bolton, wants Trump to take on China militarily! End China’s “one nation, two systems” policy over Taiwan!  Not a trade war policy but a real war!

Below, time to reduce leveraged risk and seek some safety in fully paid up physical gold and silver held outside of London and America. Brent crude oil prices suggest the return of oil price inflation, showing up as early as next month in the figures.

“If you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”

James Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush

Airlines warned of possible airstrikes in Syria over next 72 hours

Published: Apr 11, 2018 12:06 a.m. ET
A European air-traffic-control agency issued a statement late Tuesday warning airlines to use caution due to possible airstrikes in the eastern Mediterranean area in the next 72 hours. "Due to the possible launch of airstrikes into Syria with air-to-ground and/or cruise missiles within the next 72 hours, and the possibility of intermittent disruption of radio navigation equipment, due consideration needs to be taken when planning flight operations in the Eastern Mediterranean/Nicosia FIR area," Belgium-based Eurocontrol said on its website. While it did not mention specifics, the U.S. and its allies are expected to strike at targets in Syria in retaliation for an alleged chemical-weapons attack on civilians over the weekend. On Tuesday, the Trump administration was reportedly rallying support from allies for a military strike, which may me more expansive than last year's U.S. missile attack on a Syrian air base.

White House Says Trump Can Fire Mueller. Republicans Warn It’d Be a Mistake

By Shannon Pettypiece and Billy House
Updated on 10 April 2018, 20:55 GMT+1
President Donald Trump has been advised he has authority to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, a White House spokeswoman said, as top Republicans in Congress warned that doing so may put his presidency at risk.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Tuesday shifted the administration’s message on Trump’s attitude toward Mueller after the president’s angry response to a raid on the office of his longtime lawyer.

“We’ve been advised that the president certainly has the power to make that decision,” she said, in a response to a question that suggests the White House has explored the matter. Three weeks ago, when asked about Republicans warning against interfering with the investigation, Sanders repeated a statement by Trump attorney Ty Cobb that Trump “is not considering or discussing” firing Mueller.

As Mueller’s investigation into Russian election interference accelerates and drew closer to the president’s inner circle with the raid Monday his lawyer’s office and hotel room, the president lashed out, calling the probe “a disgrace” and “an attack on our country.” Asked whether he would fire Mueller, Trump said, “We’ll see what happens.”

That prompted new warnings from senior Republicans in Congress who said that it would be a major mistake or even political suicide to fire Mueller.

“I don’t think the president’s going to fire him. That would be a big mistake,” John Cornyn of Texas, the second-ranking Senate Republican, said Tuesday.
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Asian markets mixed, as trade-war worries don’t appear over yet

Published: Apr 10, 2018 10:54 p.m. ET
The global stock rally continued in Asia on Wednesday, with many markets starting with modest gains after strength overnight in the U.S. and Europe.

Still, there were signs of doubt. Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.20%   was down 0.3% in morning trading, and S&P 500 futures ESM8, -0.44%   were recently down 0.5% following the index’s 1.7% jump Tuesday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s comments Tuesday eased concerns about a trade war and calmed the market, but James Cheo, senior investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, said Wednesday that volatility should persist at least through the end of May ahead of the planned implementation of U.S. trade tariffs.

“Now the ball is in [President Donald] Trump’s court,” he said, adding that the U.S. leader needed to decide whether he will go for a quick win and accept China’s trade concessions or seek a longer fight.

Many Asia-Pacific stock markets were up about 0.5%, with Taiwan’s Taiex Y9999, +0.32%   leading at 0.7%. However, benchmarks in Australia XJO, -0.27%   and New Zealand NZ50GR, -0.28%   were down slightly.

Australia’s big banks, which jumped more than 1% on Tuesday, fell nearly that much Wednesday morning. Offsetting some of that was a gain of almost 1% for Australian energy stocks after oil prices Tuesday logged their biggest rise in 16 months, up more than 3%. Futures were little changed in morning Asian trading.

On the economic front, China released lower-than-expected inflation data for March after consumer prices jumped by the most in four years in February. Some had attributed that increase to holiday impacts. Inflation in China is “not something that investors should be too worried about,” Cheo said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-gain-though-trade-war-worries-dont-appear-over-yet-2018-04-10

April 11, 2018 / 1:38 AM

Global stocks pare gains with next phase of U.S.-China trade saga in focus, euro buoyant

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose modestly on Wednesday, paring earlier gains as optimism that trade ties between Washington and Beijing were on the mend gave way to questions about the next phase of the diplomatic tit-for-tat between the two countries.

-----The index’s surge lost some steam, however, with some Asian equity markets staggering, as the world’s two biggest economies are still seen needing to clear more hurdles before reaching any sort of settlement over trade issues.

“The United States and China are still at a phase in which they are attempting to probe the intentions of the other,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management in Tokyo.

“While China showed how far it can go, the markets won’t settle down until the two powers reach an actual agreement. The next focal point is how the United States responds.”
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US security head Bolton would risk military conflict with China to achieve goals, former US officials say

John Bolton would use military force to coerce compliance from China, which US President Donald Trump has painted as an adversary, the Post was told
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 11 April, 2018, 9:12am UPDATED : Wednesday, 11 April, 2018, 12:07pm

The new US national security adviser is willing to risk a military conflict with China to achieve President Donald Trump’s goals for America, two former senior US officials have told the South China Morning Post

John Bolton, who is fond of quoting the ancient Roman battle philosophy, “If you want peace, prepare for war”, would use military force to coerce compliance from China – which an increasingly hawkish White House has painted as a competitor, if not an adversary, the former officials who worked with Bolton said. 

Bolton, who began his new job on Monday, also seeks to challenge Beijing over its “one China” policy on Taiwan, a move that would certainly inflame tensions amid a looming US-China trade war.

Speculation grew over the weekend that Bolton could visit Taiwan in June when the new American Institute on the self-governed island is slated to open, The Economist reported. The institute represents US interests in the absence of formal ties. 

But while Bolton is seen as a military hawk who shares the “Make America Great Again” world view that underpinned Trump’s 2016 election campaign, the chief executive is believed to oppose the idea of hostilities with another nation. 
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Trump's homeland security adviser departs as Bolton reshapes national security team


Source: Xinhua    2018-04-11 01:37:57
WASHINGTON, April 10 (Xinhua) -- Tom Bossert, U.S. President Donald Trump's homeland security adviser, resigned on Tuesday, as John Bolton, Trump's new national security adviser, is reshaping the national security team.

"The president is grateful for Tom's commitment to the safety and security of our great country," White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement.

Bossert, 43, led the administration's efforts to protect the homeland from terrorist threats, strengthen cyber defenses, and respond to a series of natural disasters that have occurred across the country over the past year or so.

Sanders said that Trump "thanks him for his patriotic service and wishes him well," but she did not give a reason for Bossert's departure.
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Dow surges 430 points, defying a bearish ‘sell signal’—here’s a theory as to why

Published: Apr 10, 2018 6:12 p.m. ET

Dow Theory signal has been triggered after transports on Monday closed below a February low

The Dow Jones Transportation Average on Monday closed below its Feb. 9 closing low, propelled by a slump in the final hour of trading, and crystallizing what market technicians refer to as a bearish Dow Theory sell signal.

The Dow Theory is a market-timing tool that has been relevant on Wall Street for a century and one that MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert has been directing readers to watch out for since early March.

A sell signal was set in motion when the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.79% and the Dow transports DJT, +1.08% put in a low beneath a recent nadir. That occurred on Monday when the Dow transports finished at 10,119.36, below the early February low at 10,136.61.

The industrials closed below its trigger level on March 23.

However, markets closed sharply higher on Tuesday, with the Dow finishing about 430 points higher, seemingly shaking off the ominous technical formation. So, what does it all mean?

Hulbert explains that the Dow Theory was created by William Peter Hamilton, then the editor of the Wall Street Journal, who introduced his theory in stages over several decades in editorials in his newspaper. The general principle is that poor performance in the industrials and transports at the same time bodes ill for the broader market.

According to Hulbert, one academic study from the 1990s calculated the Dow Theory’s record over the prior seven decades, back to when it was created in the early part of the last century; the study found that the theory beat the broader market by an average of 4.4 percentage points a year.
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If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, perfidious Albion again. Imagine fighting a war with China to force the Chinese people to consume British India’s opium! To protect their population from the evils of opium addiction, China had tried to ban opium importation. Imagine destroying the priceless Imperial Summer Palace as collateral damage!  I think China has right on its side and that HMG should buy the item in question and return it to China. If possible, try to make a replica for the British Museum.
April 10, 2018 / 11:24 AM

China urges boycott of UK auction of artifact seized by British soldier in 1860

BEIJING (Reuters) - China on Tuesday condemned the British auction of a rare bronze water vessel seized by a British soldier from Beijing’s ransacked Imperial Gardens in the 19th Century, calling for a boycott.

The auction is due to take place on Wednesday, organized by Kent-based Canterbury Auction Galleries.

The elaborately adorned water vessel and cover, referred to as a Tiger Ying because of the tiger decorations, was made between 1100 and 771 B.C. during the Western Zhou Dynasty with an estimated value of up to 160,000 pounds ($226,000), the auction house said on its website.

It said the vessel was taken by a British soldier during the “capture” of what is now called the Old Summer Palace in 1860, towards the end of the Second Opium War.

The Imperial Gardens were an architectural wonder of Western-style palaces and gardens that were destroyed and looted by British and French troops in 1860.

The ruins of the palace lie where they fell today, a popular tourist site covering an area of 3.5 square km (865 acres) and a reminder of historical Western hegemony and British colonial rule.

China’s State Administration of Cultural Heritage denounced the auction.

It “strongly opposes and condemns Canterbury Auction Galleries’ insistence on auctioning the suspected illegally discharged cultural artifact despite solemn protest from China and conducting commercial hype in the name of cultural relics of wartime looting,” it said on Tuesday.

It said it did not support Chinese individuals or institutions taking part in the auction and called for other possible buyers to boycott the sale.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Virginia’s solar power capacity could triple in 5 years

By The Associated Press
FREDERICKSBURG, Va. (AP) — Virginia’s capacity to generate solar electricity is expected to triple over the next five years.

That’s according to a recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association. The Virginian-Pilot reported Monday that enough solar energy may be generated in the near future to power upward of 200,000 homes in the state.

The solar industry has been growing nationwide. But it still only accounts for about 2 percent of the nation’s capacity to generate electricity. In Virginia, that figure is half a percent.

Several reasons account for the growth. The cost of installation has been falling, and the demand for green energy has been soaring.

Owners of farmland are also finding that leasing their land for power generation is more profitable than growing traditional crops.

Wind and solar power could meet four-fifths of US electricity demand, study finds

Investment in greater storage, transmission capabilities needed

Date: February 27, 2018

Source: University of California - Irvine

Summary: The United States could reliably meet about 80 percent of its electricity demand with solar and wind power generation, according to scientists.

The United States could reliably meet about 80 percent of its electricity demand with solar and wind power generation, according to scientists at the University of California, Irvine; the California Institute of Technology; and the Carnegie Institution for Science.

However, meeting 100 percent of electricity demand with only solar and wind energy would require storing several weeks' worth of electricity to compensate for the natural variability of these two resources, the researchers said.

"The sun sets, and the wind doesn't always blow," noted Steven Davis, UCI associate professor of Earth system science and co-author of a renewable energy study published today in the journal Energy & Environmental Science. "If we want a reliable power system based on these resources, how do we deal with their daily and seasonal changes?"

The team analyzed 36 years of hourly U.S. weather data (1980 to 2015) to understand the fundamental geophysical barriers to supplying electricity with only solar and wind energy.

"We looked at the variability of solar and wind energy over both time and space and compared that to U.S. electricity demand," Davis said. "What we found is that we could reliably get around 80 percent of our electricity from these sources by building either a continental-scale transmission network or facilities that could store 12 hours' worth of the nation's electricity demand."
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You will find that the State is the kind of organization which, though it does big things badly, does small things badly, too.

J. K. Galbraith.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.

DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down 10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13. SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All three slow indicators moved down in March. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

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