Saturday, 14 April 2018

Weekend Update 14/04/2018 Bombs Away, Return To Base.


Things are seldom what they seem,
Skim milk masquerades as cream;
Highlows pass as patent leathers;
Jackdaws strut in peacock's feathers.

HMS Pinafore.

The big story this morning, well covered in mainstream media, is the overnight air attack on Syria by the USA, UK, and France. While we await the dust to settle and find out more, the official line is that we were forced to act due to Assad using chemical weapons last week, some 100 to possibly 150 missiles were used, supposedly against 3 chemical weapons targets, which seems excessive, and according to the Pentagon, Russia and Syria weren’t pre-informed of the targets, unlike last years 59 missile attack on a Syrian airbase. Russia seems not to have interfered with the attack, while Syria claims to have downed 13 missiles, and that tipped off by Russia, the targets were evacuated days ago.

Truth is the first casualty of war, and that is highly likely in this case.  Russia may not have been directly informed of the targets, but indirectly as both Israel and Turkey were likely informed and instructed to leak, to stand down Russia from starting World War Three. Given the number of missiles involved, it seems likely that more than three targets were struck, or intended to be struck, while Syria downing 13 missiles just after Friday the Thirteenth, seems more like something out of a second rate Hollywood action film. Supposedly it’s a “one off” air attack, unless Assad uses chemical weapons again, although for the record he denies using them at all.

So what does this all mean for our markets? Not much it seems to me, in far away GB, they’ve got more that enough troubles on their plate, without this Syrian storm in a teacup. For that’s all it becomes, once Russia was placated not feel threatened and need to act defensively.  But we’ll leave filling in all the action story gaps to mainstream media.

April 13, 2018 / 11:03 AM / Updated 37 minutes ago

U.S., Britain, France launch air strikes in Syria

WASHINGTON/BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.S., British and French forces pounded Syria with air strikes early on Saturday in response to a poison gas attack that killed dozens of people last week, in the biggest intervention by Western powers against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced the military action from the White House. As he spoke, 
explosions rocked Damascus.

British Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron said their forces had joined in the attack.

With more than 100 missiles fired from ships and manned aircraft, the allies struck three of Syria’s main chemical weapons facilities, U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Joseph Dunford said.

Mattis called the strikes a “one time shot,” but Trump raised the prospect of further strikes if Assad’s government again uses chemical weapons.

“We are prepared to sustain this response until the Syrian regime stops its use of prohibited chemical agents,” the U.S. president said in a televised address.

The Syrian conflict pits a complex myriad of parties against each other with Russia and Iran giving Assad military and political help while fractured opposition forces have had varying levels of support at different times from the West, Arab states and Turkey.

The strikes risked raising tension in an already combustible region but appeared designed not to trigger a military response from Russia and Iran.
More

Now back to the increasingly volatile, troubled markets. More trouble lies ahead as we normalise interest rates and inflation returns with higher oil prices and Trump’s import tariffs.

Dow's 122-point stumble driven almost entirely by JP Morgan, Boeing stocks

Published: Apr 13, 2018 5:37 p.m. ET
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped on Friday as the banking sector declined. The Dow industrials DJIA, -0.50% ended 122.91 points, or 0.5%, lower at 24,360.14, with nearly 80 points of that downdraft produced by declines in JP Morgan Chase & CO. JPM, -2.71% and Boeing Co. BA, -2.43% The slide for JP Morgan, down 2.7%, came even as the banking behemoth released results for the first-quarter that were better than expected, along with a number of other upbeat earnings reports from the banking sector. Still, that group was the greatest drag on the broader market.
Part of the reasoning is that expectations for earnings to outperform have set up a scenario in which investors are taking profits after the fact, rather than placing further bets on banks, market participants said. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.29% closed off 0.3% at 2,656.30, with the banking sector XLF, -1.51% down 1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.47% closed down 0.5% at 7,106.65.

Read the full story: Stock market ends solid week on a sour note as bank shares slump after earnings
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dows-100-point-stumble-in-afternoon-trade-driven-almost-entirely-by-jp-morgan-boeing-stocks-2018-04-13

GE's Credit Rating Is at Risk

Profit reductions caused by an accounting rule change inflate leverage and steepen the path to lowering that debt burden through earnings growth.
By Brooke Sutherland
Updated on 14 April 2018, 03:32 GMT+1
General Electric Co.'s financial restatements call attention to risks that credit-rating firms won't be able to ignore much longer.

The industrial giant, whose shares have plunged more than 20 percent this year as it grapples with the fallout from a deterioration in its cash flow, provided more details late Friday on the impact to 2016 and 2017 financials from accounting rules changes. New standards for revenue recognition and other adjustments will result in a roughly $2.5 billion reduction to GE's 2017 industrial segment profit, more than what the company had estimated in November. 

It's important to note that the restatements aren't connected to the SEC investigation into the way GE accounts for long-term service contracts. 1 Instead, the update is a fine-tuning of restatements GE has been flagging for a while now. But the official restated 2017 results should make it clear that GE's 2018 outlook is unrealistic and will likely need to be walked back. On that basis, it's hard to see how credit-rating companies can still be comfortable with their current outlooks.
More

April 13, 2018 / 2:01 PM

Musk insists Tesla does not need more capital, predicts profit soon

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) will be profitable in the third and fourth quarters of this year and will not have to raise any money from investors, billionaire Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Friday, driving shares in the electric carmaker higher.

Tesla has already sought this month to play down widespread Wall Street speculation that it would need to return to capital markets this year to raise more funds for the money-losing company as it ramps up production of the Model 3 sedan seen as crucial to its long-term profitability.

The Silicon Valley car maker, which has consistently fallen short of promised production targets and is fighting bad publicity over a fatal crash of a car using its Autopilot system, said 10 days ago it would have positive cash flow from the third quarter.

Musk went further on Friday in a tweeted response to a story in The Economist which cited estimates Tesla would need $2.5 billion to $3 billion this year in additional funding.

“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it’s just boring (sigh). Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money,” Musk wrote.

Tesla shares, which have gained nearly 10 percent since disclosing the Model 3 production numbers on April 3, were up 1.8 percent in afternoon trading on Wall Street.
More

In other news, will a growing drought add to US inflation pressure? It’s far to early to tell, but it warrants close attention in coming months.

Report: Drought expands; Oklahoma sees worst conditions

  • By RUSSELL CONTRERAS and JULIAN HATTEM Associated Press
  • Apr 12, 2018
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — Drought is tightening its grip across the Southwest as extreme conditions spread from Oklahoma to Utah, according to a new federal data released Thursday.
On the southern high plains, Oklahoma remains ground zero for the worst drought conditions in the United States. About 20 percent of the state is facing exceptional drought conditions — the worst possible classification.

Most of Colorado also is under severe drought and almost all of the Texas Panhandle is seeing extreme drought or worse conditions.

The federal drought map shows dry conditions have intensified across northern New Mexico and expanded in Arizona.

Nearly half of New Mexico and Arizona are facing extreme drought or worse conditions while about 60 percent of Utah is under severe drought. according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Along the Rio Grande in New Mexico, the irrigation allotment will be less than half of what farmers received last year due to subpar snowmelt from the mountains.

Like other states, Utah's drought can be traced to a 12-week stretch of low precipitation this winter, when the mountains saw some of the lowest snow totals in recent history — also an ominous sign for the state's renowned skiing sites.

"People come here to ski Utah powder, and when you don't have it snowmaking has to take over," said Brian McInerney, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service. "Snowmaking is not as good as what you get naturally from the atmosphere."

Much of Utah's water reserves were replenished last winter, after a bruising period from 2012 to 2016 that nearly depleted the state's water reserves.

As a result, lack of water isn't a concern now, McInerney said.

But danger of forest fires will be elevated as the hot summer edges closer, he said.
Another update later.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.

DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down 10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13.
SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All three slow indicators moved down. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 
DJIA. Buy: 29/7/16 - 18,432.  Sell: 29/3/18 – 24,103.
SP500. Buy: 29/7/16 – 2,174.  Sell: 29/3/18 – 2,641.
NASDAQ. Buy: 29/7/16 – 5,762.  Sell: 29/3/18 – 7,063.

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