Baltic Dry Index. 948
-05 Brent Crude
67.37
“Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our
farmers and manufacturers.”
President Trump
We are spoiled for
choice this morning. Someone attacked a
Syrian airbase, “not me” says Uncle Sam, which leave the usual local suspect
Israel firmly in the picture. Sadly to the outside world it’s mostly a big yawn
unless it leads to a war with Russia.
As President Xi
prepares to give a major speech this week, President Trump kept up his twitter
attack on China. Chinese state controlled media kept up their attack on the
USA.
JP Morgan thinks it
spots a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve. And Europe, don’t ask, just
scroll down to Crooks Corner.
All in all, yet more
reason to use any stock rallies to take profits and scale back risk, not that
you will hear that advice from the professional stock pedlars. “Buy more,” is
always their broken record song.
April 9, 2018 / 1:36 AM
Asia stocks track rally in S&P futures; confused on Syria
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian shares crept higher on Monday as a bounce in U.S. stock
futures soothed sentiment even as U.S. President Donald Trump kept up his
twitter war with China just a couple of days before President Xi Jinping gives
a keynote speech.
There was more confusion than reaction to reports U.S. forces had struck
at sites in Syria, reports which the Pentagon quickly denied.
Trump said on Sunday there would be a “big price to pay” after medical
aid groups reported dozens of people were killed by poison gas in a besieged
rebel-held town.
For now, investors in Asia were encouraged that E-Mini futures for the
S&P 500 were still up 0.66 percent, while NASDAQ futures rose 0.88 percent.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan responded by
rising 0.7 percent. Japan’s Nikkei put on 0.6 percent, while Chinese blue chips
added 0.3 percent and Hong Kong climbed 2 percent.
Caution had been the watchword after Trump claimed on Sunday that China
would take down its trade barriers because it was “the right thing to do.”
Trump late Thursday threatened to slap $100 billion more in tariffs on
Chinese imports, while Beijing said it was fully prepared to respond with a
“fierce counter strike”.
Analysts warned the drama would be a long-running one given the lengthy
public discussion period on U.S. tariff proposals meant the earliest they might
be imposed was somewhere around late July or early August.
“This is not going to happen tomorrow, and given the mercurial nature of
the U.S. administration, the whole issue could well disappear before anything
really happens,” said Marshall Gittler, chief strategist at ACLS Global.
“Many market participants may be starting to think that this is just a
lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing in the end. But..you never know, U.S.
trade policy is in the hands of someone totally unpredictable.”
Trump Predicts China Will Be First to Buckle in Trade Dispute
By Ros Krasny and Sho Chandra
8 April 2018, 13:58 GMT+1 Updated
on 8 April 2018, 18:22 GMT+1
President Donald Trump predicted China will be first to buckle as the
world’s largest economies teeter on the brink of a trade war that’s sent
financial markets reeling, without indicating where his assessment sprang from.“China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do,” Trump told his 50 million Twitter followers early Sunday. “Taxes will become reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property.” He also said that no matter what happens, “President Xi and I will always be friends,” referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The comments follow a week of rising tensions on trade, punctuated by the president’s surprise order late on Thursday that the U.S. identify additional Chinese goods to target and Beijing’s immediate vow that it won’t back down.
Top members of Trump’s economic team, speaking on Sunday morning talk shows, defended the U.S. threats to impose tariffs on Chinese imports and framed the moves as part of a longer-term strategy for growth -- while suggesting a trade war can be averted.
“I think it’s going to generate very positive results which will grow” the economies of the U.S., China, and the world, Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Jittery Markets
Kudlow said while he would support imposing tariffs if negotiations with China fail, nothing has happened yet. In a separate interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Kudlow acknowledged market “jitters” but said “we’re not gonna to end up in a trade war.”Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the U.S. objective “is to continue to have discussions with China.”
More
April 8, 2018 / 3:52 AM
China's state media urges U.S. industry to rally against Trump tariff threat
BEIJING
(Reuters) - Chinese state media on Sunday called on industrial and commercial
sectors in the United States to rally against President Donald Trump’s plans
for an additional $100 billion in tariffs against Chinese goods.
----“We
call on the international business community including the United States
industrial and commercial circles to take prompt and effective measures and
urge the U.S. government to correct its errors,” said state newspaper People’s
Daily.
It also said that Chinese enterprises and industry will band together to
support any government action against the tariffs.
China warned on Friday it was fully prepared to respond with a “fierce
counter strike” of fresh trade measures if Trump imposes the additional $100
billion in tariffs.
China’s media, which is under strict control by authorities, has
staunchly defended the country’s position, saying it is a victim of U.S. trade
protectionism.
On
Friday, China launched a World Trade Organization complaint against the United
States, triggering a 60-day deadline for the two countries to settle the
matter.
Xi Takes Center Stage to Defend China's Trade From Trump Barrage
By Enda Curran
7 April 2018, 22:00 GMT+1 Updated
on 8 April 2018, 17:01 GMT+1
President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariff
threats have left China’s Xi Jinping with a tricky balance to strike. He’s
got to show he’s ready to retaliate against U.S. trade threats while
demonstrating China’s commitment to opening up.The Chinese president’s first chance to hit back in person comes in a speech Tuesday at the Boao Forum for Asia -- China’s answer to Davos -- on the tropical island of Hainan.
Besides reassuring the hundreds of foreign investors present that U.S.
protectionism won’t produce the same in the world’s second-largest economy, he
must deliver a strong warning about letting the tariff disputes escalate into a
trade war.
“You’ve got to push back and defend yourself in some way and at the same
time say, ‘We are still open for business,”’ said Fraser Howie, co-author of
the book “Red Capitalism,” who has two decades of experience in China’s
financial markets. “The argument can be: ‘How do we not respond, if America is
placing tariffs on us?”’
More
Bad Omen for Markets From First Signs of Yield Curve Inversion
By Adam Haigh
8 April 2018, 23:44 GMT+1
The forward curve of a closely watched proxy for the Federal Reserve’s
policy rate has slightly inverted, signaling investors are either pricing in a
mistake from central bankers or end-of-cycle dynamics, according to JPMorgan
Chase & Co.
The inversion of the one-month U.S. overnight indexed swap rate implies
some expectation of a lower Fed policy rate after the first quarter of 2020,
the bank’s strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote in a note
Friday.
“An inversion at the front end of the U.S. curve is a significant market
development, not least because it occurs rather rarely,” they said. “It is also
generally perceived as a bad omen for risky markets.”
The
negative market signal comes as investors grapple with higher short term
borrowing costs, which have risen in the U.S. to levels unseen since the
financial crisis. While the strategists admit it is difficult to discern which
of the two explanations for the curve inversion carries more weight, flow data
suggests it is more likely to be rising expectations of a Fed policy mistake.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In EUSSR news, yet more bad news for the Brussels Eurocrats.
April 8, 2018 / 1:13 AM
Hungary's strongman Viktor Orban wins third term in power
April 8, 2018 / 6:29 AM
BUDAPEST, Hungary (Reuters) -
Prime Minister Viktor Orban won a third straight term in power in Sunday
elections after his anti-immigration campaign message secured a strong majority
for his party in parliament, granting him two-thirds of seats based on
preliminary results.
The rightwing nationalist prime minister projected himself as a saviour
of Hungary’s Christian culture against Muslim migration into Europe, an image
which resonated with millions of voters, especially in rural areas.
“We have won, Hungary has won a great victory,” a jubilant Orban told a
large crowd of cheering supporters near the Danube river in Budapest.
“There is a big battle behind us, we have won a crucial victory, giving
ourself a chance to defend Hungary.”
According to preliminary results with 93 percent of votes counted,
National Election Office data projected Fidesz to win 133 seats, a tight
two-thirds majority in the 199-seat parliament. Nationalist Jobbik was
projected to win 26 seats, while the Socialists were projected as third with 20
lawmakers.
----That means Orban could have a two-thirds majority for a third time, and powers to change constitutional laws. The EU has struggled to respond as Orban’s government has, in the view of its critics, used its two landslide victories in 2010 and 2014 to erode democratic checks and balances.
The victory could embolden Orban to put more muscle into a Central
European alliance against the European Union’s migration policies. Orban,
Hungary’s longest-serving post-communist premier, opposes deeper integration of
the bloc and - teaming up with Poland - has been a fierce critique of Brussels’
policies.
More
French train chaos strikes again as standoff with Macron deepens
PARIS
(Reuters) - Millions of French commuters and holidaymakers faced another wave
of crippling transport stoppages on Sunday, as rail workers protested at
President Emmanuel Macron’s economic reform plans and some unions warned they
could step up strike action.
Train staff last week kicked off three months of nationwide rolling
strikes in a dispute over the government’s planned overhaul of state-run rail
firm SNCF, in the biggest challenge yet to Macron’s attempts to modernise the
French economy.
Just over a third of workers needed to make the train network run
smoothly were expected to walk out on Sunday, a dip in participation compared
to the last 48 hours of walk-outs on Tuesday and Wednesday, the SNCF said.
But some labour unions have already signalled a hardening stance as
negotiations with ministers over the reforms hit a wall. Officials at the
Communist-rooted CGT said on Friday strikes could drag on well beyond June if
nothing shifted.
Laurent Brun, head of the CGT’s railway section, added workers were
ready for a “marathon” if needed.
Unions have so far called strikes for two days out of every five until
the end of June, to fight a shake-up of monopoly SNCF before it is opened to
competition in line with European Union rules.
That includes ending job-for-life guarantees and early retirement for
rail workers, which the government argues will help transform the heavily
indebted company into a profitable public service.
Workers have hit back with complaints the SNCF was being dismantled to pave
the way for a privatisation.
The showdown between Macron and the rail unions is one of the toughest
tests yet of the former investment banker’s presidency.
The 40-year-old came to power last May on a promise to shake up Europe’s
second-biggest economy, in a bid to modernise some of France’s creaking
institutions and spur jobs growth, and Macron has so far liberalised labour
regulations for instance.
German exports sink, in sign of slowing growth
Published: Apr 9, 2018 2:41 a.m. ET
FRANKFURT--German exports plunged in February, a further sign that
growth in Europe's largest economy is beginning to lose momentum.
The Federal Statistical Office said Monday that exports dropped 3.2%
from the month before, the second decline in a row, while imports fell 1.3% on
month. The data account for seasonal swings and calendar effects.
The falling German exports followed a series of soft economic releases
from across the eurozone, suggesting that while growth will continue in 2018,
it won't be as strong in 2017.
"Trade data have completed what has been another disappointing
month for German industry," said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING.
More
Finally, in the great halls of Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, ther'll be less Cryan but more Sewing.
Deutsche Bank ousts CEO Cryan, names Sewing as CEO
Published: Apr 9, 2018 2:26 a.m. ET
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
6 April 2018
Net addition of solar power outpaced fossil fuel in 2017
The world added more solar power than any other form of energy
technology in 2017, according to the Global Trends in Renewable Energy
Investment 2018 report.
According to the report, a record 98 gigawatts of new solar capacity was
installed globally, outpacing the net additions of renewable, fossil and
nuclear technology. Solar power also attracted far more investment than any
other technology, with spending at $160.8b—an increase of 18%.
Much of the increase can be attributed to China, where an unprecedented
increase saw 53 gigawatts added, making up more than half of the global total.
Investment in China was also up 58%, with $86.5b spent on new solar power
facilities.
“The extraordinary surge in solar investment shows how the global energy
map is changing and, more importantly, what the economic benefits are of such a
shift,” said UN Environment head Erik Solheim.
“Investments in renewables bring more people into the economy, they
deliver more jobs, better quality jobs and better-paid jobs. Clean energy also
means less pollution, which means healthier, happier development.”
In addition to China, there were also large increases in renewable
investment in Australia (up 147% to $8.5b), Mexico (up 810% to $6b) and in
Sweden (up 127% $3.7b).
The report, released by UN Environment, found that falling costs for
solar electricity, and to a lesser extent wind power, are the driving forces
behind increased deployment.
Last year was the eighth consecutive year that global investment in
renewables exceeded $200b, with $2.9t invested since 2004.
However, some markets saw declines in renewable investment, such as the
US where spending dropped by 6% to a total spend of $40.5b. There was an even
greater decline across Europe, with a fall of 36% to $40.9b of investment, with
notable drops of 65% in the UK and a 35% drop in Germany.
----Since
2007 global investments in renewable energy of $2.7t have increased the proportion
of world electricity generated by wind, solar, biomass and waste-to-energy,
geothermal, marine and small hydro from 5.2% to 12.1%.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.
DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down
10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13. SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March. For some a new bear signal, for
others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
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