Monday, 2 April 2018

Trade War – China Hits Back.


Baltic Dry Index. 1055 -25    Brent Crude 69.67

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."

William F. Rickenbacker

Today the global economy stands at the edge of an abyss. The world’s two largest economies have imposed trade sanctions against each other.  So far the amount of trade likely to be affected remains small. If both stop now, no great damage is likely to befall the global economy, but President Trump is threatening to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods, and it’s hard to see China not retaliating.  President Trump is proposing to jump into that abyss, and both Mexico and Canada have just about one month left to negotiate a NAFTA climbdown, before both countries temporary exemption from President Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs end.

Below, the global economy on the edge of madness. Though no one wins in a full scale trade war, not everyone loses at the same time nor to the same degree.
 
April 2, 2018 / 12:20 AM / Updated an hour ago

China imposes additional tariffs in response to U.S. duties on steel, aluminum

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has slapped extra tariffs of up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products including frozen pork, as well as on wine and certain fruits and nuts, in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel, China’s finance ministry said.

The tariffs, to take effect on Monday, were announced late on Sunday and match a list of potential tariffs on up to $3 billion in U.S. goods published by China on March 23.

China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said it was suspending its obligations to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to reduce tariffs on 120 U.S. goods, including fruit. The tariffs on those products will be raised by an extra 15 percent.

Eight other products, including pork, will now be subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent, it said, with the measures effective from April 2.

“China’s suspension of its tariff concessions is a legitimate action adopted under WTO rules to safeguard China’s interests,” the Chinese finance ministry said.

China has imposed the additional tariffs amid escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, sparking fears of a full-blown trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies.

U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to impose tariffs of more than $50 billion on Chinese goods intended to punish Beijing over U.S. accusations that China systematically misappropriated American intellectual property - allegations Beijing denies.

China has repeatedly promised to open its economy further, but many foreign companies continue to complain of unfair treatment. China warned the United States on Thursday not to open a Pandora’s Box and spark a flurry of protectionist practices across the globe.

In a statement published on Monday morning, MOFCOM said the United States had “seriously violated” the principles of non-discrimination enshrined in World Trade Organization rules, and had also damaged China’s interests.

“China’s suspension of some of its obligations to the United States is its legitimate right as a member of the World Trade Organization,” it said, adding that differences between the world’s two largest economies should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation.

March 31, 2018 / 1:43

China says protectionist moves will mean shutting door on the country

BEIJING (Reuters) - China wants to share its development opportunities with other countries, but protectionism will mean closing the door into China, the country’s top diplomat said, amid a festering trade dispute with the United States.

---- Speaking at a regional forum in Vietnam’s capital Hanoi on Friday, Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi said the country’s reform and opening up policy will neither be changed nor be affected by any external factors, China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

“China’s reform and opening up is in line with the interests of the Chinese people, and will also benefit other countries,” the statement cited Wang as saying, adding China will provide an even better investment environment for foreign companies.

“Opening up should work both ways. China opens itself to other countries and hopes others will be open to China,” he said, without mentioning any countries by name.

While friction and disputes over trade are normal, what is important is to work for reasonable solutions through equal consultations in line with laws and rules, Wang added.

“Any unilateral or protectionist measures are an approach against the trend of the history, will go nowhere and will see their own interests undermined,” he said.
More.

March 29, 2018

Exclusive: China taking first steps to pay for oil in yuan this year - sources

HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - China is taking its first steps towards paying for imported crude oil in yuan instead of the U.S. dollar, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, a key development in Beijing’s efforts to establish its currency internationally.

Shifting just part of global oil trade into the yuan is potentially huge. Oil is the world’s most traded commodity, with an annual trade value of around $14 trillion, roughly equivalent to China’s gross domestic product last year.

A pilot program for yuan payment could be launched as early as the second half of this year, two of the people said.

Regulators have informally asked a handful of financial institutions to prepare for pricing China’s crude imports in the yuan, said the three sources at some of the financial firms.

“Being the biggest buyer of oil, it’s only natural for China to push for the usage of yuan for payment settlement. This will also improve the yuan liquidity in the global market,” said one of the people briefed on the matter by Chinese authorities.

China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer and in 2017 overtook the United States as the biggest importer of crude oil. Its demand is a key determinant of global oil prices.
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Trump Warns He'll Dump Nafta If Mexico Doesn't Stop Drug Flows

By Justin Sink
1 April 2018, 16:58 GMT+1
President Donald Trump threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement if Mexico doesn’t stop people and drugs from flowing into the U.S. from Central America.

“They must stop the big drug and people flows, or I will stop their cash cow, NAFTA. Need Wall!” Trump said Sunday on Twitter, minutes before arriving at church for an Easter Sunday service with his wife, Melania.

In a series of tweets, the president also suggested he was no longer willing to strike a deal to assist immigrants brought to the country illegally as minors, and repeated a call for Senate Republicans to go to a simple 51-vote majority as a way to pass legislation more easily.

“Border Patrol Agents are not allowed to properly do their job at the Border because of ridiculous liberal (Democrat) laws like Catch & Release,” Trump wrote. “Getting more dangerous. ‘Caravans’ coming. Republicans must go to Nuclear Option to pass tough laws NOW. NO MORE DACA DEAL!”

The president’s tweet was posted shortly after a segment on Fox News Channel’s “Fox and Friends,” in which Brandon Judd, the president of the National Border Patrol Council, a labor union representing border patrol agents, talked about reports that a caravan of hundreds of Central Americans was headed toward the U.S. in a bid to secure asylum.
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March 29, 2018 / 5:35 PM

Global funds cut stock exposure to four-month low amid trade war fears

LONDON (Reuters) - Spooked by brewing trade tensions and a broad reversal in technology shares, global investors have cut their equity exposure to a four-month low this month while reducing their holdings of U.S. stocks to the lowest in nearly two years.

Reuters’ monthly asset allocation poll of 53 wealth managers and chief investment officers in Europe, the United States, Britain and Japan was carried out from March 12 to 27.

During this period, U.S. moves to slap tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods, sent world stocks .MIWO00000PUS to six-week lows.

Investors have been worried that tit-for-tat retaliatory measures from China and a deterioration in world trade could hinder economic global, prompting a sharp risk-off move in markets.

“Trade tariffs ... while they should not end up in a full-blown trade war, risk weighing on market sentiment just when liquidity is diminishing and financial conditions are expected to tighten,” said Pascal Blanque, chief investment officer at Amundi.

In the poll, investors cut their equity holdings by almost 1 percentage point to 48.1 percent of global balanced portfolios — the lowest level since November — while raising bond holdings by 2.3 percentage points to 39.3 percent.

Within equity portfolios, managers cut their U.S. exposure to 38 percent, the lowest since April 2016.
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March 30, 2018

Trade conflict fears to keep markets on edge for weeks

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A full-scale global trade war has not broken out yet - but that hasn’t stopped the market from fretting about one or analysts from warning about the potential cost.

Whether such concerns remain a driving force for asset prices in the coming days depends largely on decisions, tweets and formal announcements from Washington and Beijing, but it seems certain that the uncertainty has at least another month to run.

South Korea has cut a deal with the United States, agreeing to reduce its steel exports to avoid tariffs. The European Union, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia and Argentina face a May 1 deadline to reach equivalent deals.

U.S. President Donald Trump has tied the suspension of tariffs for Canada and Mexico to a renegotiation of NAFTA. Officials have said the next round of talks was due to start on April 8, but that date is not certain and there are mixed messages on the chances of a quick breakthrough.

China has meanwhile warned that it could target a broad range of U.S. businesses if Trump slapped tariffs on $50 billion-$60 billion of largely high tech Chinese goods, although the latter may not happen until early June.

Economists at ING split such a conflict into four stages from a lone Trump attack to a tit-for-tat battle to U.S. escalation, such as including EU cars, and finally an all-out trade war.

The last, ING estimates, would harm all economies, with the United States facing the heaviest hit, of some 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over two years, with U.S exporters facing high tariffs at all borders while the rest of the world keeps its prevailing arrangements in place.

Only in the first scenario, in which Trump imposes tariffs and no one retaliates, would the United States make any noticeable economic gain - of some 0.3 percent of GDP.

ING’s head of international trade analysis Raoul Leering said that the conflict was currently somewhere between the first scenario and the second ‘tit-for-tat’ stage.

“If other countries give in and give Trump something in return, then we’re looking at scenario one,” he said. “It’s a conflict in which Trump could turn out to be the winner.”

Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit, believes that the trade conflict is likely to be the main driver of market sentiment for weeks to come, although for the time being it is “barely more than tough talk”, with strong announcements then watered down, such as with the metal tariff exemptions.

“If it stays like this it’s not really altering anything in the macro outlook. The risk is, once you’ve started, you’re on a slippery slope and you don’t know if you can stop. That’s the risk markets are worried about,” he said.
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"If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a beautiful pine tree, worth about $4,000 - $5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp and then paper, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?"

Kenneth J. Gerbino

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, Tesla again. A perfect storm seems to be headed Tesla’s way. Amazon gets Trumped.

Elon Musk Sends April Fools' Tweets Joking of Tesla Bankruptcy

By Craig Trudell
1 April 2018, 23:25 GMT+1
After the worst month for Tesla Inc. shares in more than seven years, punctuated by company blog posts about the death of a Model X driver, Elon Musk is joking about his electric-car maker going bankrupt.

“Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt,” the chief executive officer wrote in an April Fools’ Day tweet on Sunday. Another post included a photo of Musk and a message that he “was found passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by ‘Teslaquilla’ bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his cheeks.”

Tesla’s stock fell by 22 percent in March, the steepest monthly drop since December 2010, the year the company went public. Moody’s Investors Service last week to cut Tesla’s credit rating further into junk status and said the company may soon have to raise more than $2 billion, sending its bonds to all-time lows.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-01/elon-musk-sends-april-fools-tweets-joking-of-tesla-bankruptcy

March 28, 2018 / 10:42 PM

Tesla shareholder lawsuit against SolarCity deal set to proceed

(Reuters) - A class action lawsuit by Tesla Inc shareholders against the electric car maker’s chief executive, Elon Musk, and the company’s board over the SolarCity deal was set to proceed after a Delaware judge refused to dismiss it.

The lawsuit alleged the board of Tesla breached its duties to shareholders by approving the SolarCity deal.

Tesla bought solar panel installer SolarCity for $2.6 billion in an all-stock deal in 2016. Musk was then biggest shareholder in both Tesla and SolarCity, and his SolarCity shares were converted to $500 million of Tesla shares.

It is “conceivable that Musk, as a controlling stockholder, controlled the Tesla board” during the SolarCity deal, the judge said.

“We do not agree with the decision and will be taking appropriate next steps,” a Tesla spokesperson told Reuters.

“It’s important to emphasize that this was a motion to dismiss in which the court was required to assume as true all of the allegations that are made in the complaint.”

Trump Renews Amazon Attack, Says ‘Post Office Scam’ Must Stop

By Ros Krasny and Justin Sink
31 March 2018, 14:26 GMT+1 Updated on 31 March 2018, 16:45 GMT+1
President Donald Trump lit into Amazon.com Inc. for the second time in three days with a pair of Twitter messages that said the online retailer “must pay real costs (and taxes) now!”

The president on Saturday claimed, citing reports he didn’t specify, that the U.S. Postal Service “will lose $1.50 on average for each package it delivers for Amazon” and added that the “Post Office scam must stop.” Amazon has said the postal service, which has financial problems stretching back for years, makes money on its deliveries.

Amazon shed $53 billion in market value on Wednesday after Axios reported that the president is “obsessed” with regulating the e-commerce giant, whose founder and chief executive officer, Jeff Bezos, also owns the Washington Post newspaper. Those losses were pared on Thursday, the final day of a shortened trading week, even as Trump tweeted that Amazon was using the postal service as its “Delivery Boy.”

White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters said on Thursday that while the president was displeased with the e-commerce giant, and particularly instances where third-party sellers on the site didn’t collect sales tax, there were no administrative actions planned against Amazon “at this time.”

Read More: Here’s What the President Could Do About Amazon

Still, Brad Parscale, who’s managing Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign, hinted in a tweet late Thursday that the administration may act to raise Amazon’s postal costs. “Once the market figures out that a single @usps rule change will crush @amazon’s bottom line we will see,” Parscale wrote.
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Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Next-gen lithium-metal batteries for electric vehicles, smart grids

Date: March 28, 2018

Source: University of Texas at Austin, Texas Advanced Computing Center

Summary: Electric vehicles, wind turbines or smart grids require batteries with far greater energy capacity than currently available. A leading contender is the lithium-metal battery. However, dendrite, or sharp needles, made of clumps of lithium atoms can cause the batteries to heat up, lose efficiency and occasionally short-circuit. Using supercomputers, researchers have simulated the behavior of graphene oxide nanosheets that can limit the formation of dendrites.

As renewable energy grows as a power source around the world, one key component still eludes the industry: large-scale, stable, efficient and affordable batteries.

Lithium-ion batteries have proven successful for consumer electronics, but electric vehicles, wind turbines or smart grids require batteries with far greater energy capacity. A leading contender is the lithium-metal battery, which differs from lithium ion technology in that it contains lithium metal electrodes.

First conceived in 1912, lithium-metal batteries have the potential for huge amounts of energy storage at a low cost, but they suffer from a fatal flaw: dendrites -- sharp needles made of clumps of lithium atoms that can cause batteries to heat up and occasionally short-circuit and catch fire.

However, the promise of the technology has kept researchers and companies working on ways to overcome this problem.

"Lithium-metal batteries are basically the dream batteries since they provide an extremely high energy density," said Reza Shahbazian-Yassar, associate professor of mechanical and industrial engineering at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC). "However, we have not been able to build commercially viable lithium-metal batteries with organic liquid electrolytes due to heterogeneous lithium metal plating that leads to dendrites under extended battery cycling."

Recently, teams of researchers, including Shahbazian-Yassar at UIC and Perla Balbuena at Texas A&M University, have been inching closer to finding a solution, in part by applying the power of supercomputers to understand the core chemistry and physics at work in dendrite formation and to engineer new materials that can mitigate dendrite growth.

Writing in Advanced Functional Materials in February 2018, the researchers presented the results of studies into a new material that may solve the long-standing dendrite problem.

"The idea was to develop a coating material that can protect the lithium metal and make the ion deposition much smoother," said Balbuena, professor of Chemical Engineering at Texas A&M and co-author on the paper.

The investigations relied on the Stampede and Lonestar supercomputers at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) -- among the most powerful in the world.

ION PACHINKO

In the paper, the researchers described a graphene oxide nanosheet that can be sprayed onto a glass fiber separator which is then inserted into the battery. The material allows lithium ions to pass through it, but slows down and controls how the ions combine with electrons from the surface to become neutral atoms. Instead of forming needles, the deposited atoms form smooth, flat surfaces at the bottom of the sheet.

The researchers used computer models and simulations in tandem with physical experiments and microscopic imaging to reveal how and why the material effectively controls lithium deposition. 
They showed that the lithium ions form a thin film on the surface of the graphene oxide and then diffuse through defect sites -- essentially gaps in the layers of the material -- before settling below the bottom layer of the graphene oxide. The material acts like the pegs in a pachinko game, slowing and directing the metal balls as they fall.
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“If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it existed prior to 1913, we’d be fine. Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard. I’m known as a gold bug and everyone laughs at me, but why do central banks own gold now?” 

Alan Greenspan. June 28, 2016.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.

DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down 10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13. SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All three slow indicators moved down. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 
DJIA. Buy: 29/7/16 - 18,432.  Sell: 29/3/18 – 24,103.
SP500. Buy: 29/7/16 – 2,174.  Sell: 29/3/18 – 2,641.

NASDAQ. Buy: 29/7/16 – 5,762.  Sell: 29/3/18 – 7,063.

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