Baltic Dry Index. 1201 +77 Brent Crude 73.80
Protectionism will do little
to create jobs and if foreigners retaliate, we will surely lose jobs.
Alan Greenspan
One final weekend in
Washington, District if Crooks, for the G-20 Finance Ministers attending the
Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, to head off an all too real trade
war. They have about the same chance as the proverbial snowball in hell.
After President Trump
first appearing to target NAFTA members Canada and Mexico, plus most of the
members of NATO, most were quickly given “temporary” exemptions, leaving just
China, Japan, India and Brazil, in his gunsights. Of these China’s ZTE has been
singled out for “waterboarding.” China
has twice promised to do whatever it takes to protect its interests.
This weekend’s
meetings offer the best last chance, for the global economy, already drinking
in the last chance saloon, to sober up and reach an effective trade compromise
that avoids a self inflicted potential late 2018 catastrophe. Right now the USS America is still steaming
full speed ahead for the icebergs.
Below, little by
little, 2017 looks more and more like ancient history. With crude oil back to
trading and staying in the 70s, oil fuelled price inflation lies directly
ahead, as falling oil prices drop out of the formula replaced by rising oil
prices. Bad things lie ahead once that happens,
on top of all the fallout from attempting to humiliate China.
Below, tech takes a
licking, but can it keep on ticking, with apologies to Timex.
The E.U., China, and Japan all
talk free trade, and they all practice protectionism.
Wilbur Ross
Asian markets sink, with chip makers leading declines
Published: Apr 20, 2018 12:14 a.m. ET
Asia-Pacific stock markets pulled back on Friday after two days of broad
gains, with a downbeat outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor prompting declines in
technology names.The company, one of the world’s biggest chip makers, expects second-quarter sales to come in more than 10% below analysts’ estimates, citing soft demand for high-end smartphones. The forecast sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 4.3% Thursday in the U.S.
TSMC shares 2330, -5.73% were down almost 6% and on course for their worst day since 2013. The drop also pushed Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex stock index Y9999, -1.64% down 1.5% and pressured smartphone-component makers elsewhere in the region.
AAC 2018, -6.50% also slid 6% in Hong Kong, hitting an eight-month low, while lens maker Sunny Optical 2382, -2.91% declined 3%. In Japan, Tokyo Electron 8035, -2.37% fell 2.4% in the morning session, while South Korea’s Samsung 005930, -1.97% dropped 1.5%.
Taiwan Semi’s warning resulted in “brewing concerns of weak iPhone demand,” weighing on Apple suppliers, noted Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG Group. Apple AAPL, -2.83% shares fell 2.8% on Thursday.
----Stock indexes in China SHCOMP, -1.20% , Singapore STI, -0.77% and Malaysia FBMKLCI, -0.31% fell at least 0.5% after two days of solid gains, which saw Malaysia’s benchmark hit a record high on Thursday.
“The trade-war impact is still in the market, and investors are still cautious,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International. “With uncertainty ahead, investors will try and take profit before the weekend.”
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.03% , which turned higher by midday thanks to a weaker yen, moved back into negative territory in early-afternoon trading. Friday morning, the government said Japan’s core consumer prices rose 0.9% from a year earlier in March, versus February’s reading of 1%.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-sink-with-chip-makers-leading-declines-2018-04-19
Chipmakers' Rout Widens After TSMC Ignites Smartphone Fears
By Debby Wu
Updated on 20 April 2018, 03:44 GMT+1
Asian technology stocks joined their peers in a global swoon after a disappointing sales
outlook from Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Apple Inc.’s main chip supplier,
rekindled concerns that the smartphone industry’s best days may be behind it.TSMC fell as much as 6.8 percent -- its biggest intraday loss since February -- after predicting current-quarter sales about a billion dollars less than analysts had projected. It also reduced its forecast for semiconductor market growth, to 5 percent from a previous 5 to 7 percent. That followed a report by the International Monetary Fund this week saying smartphone shipments declined for the first time, a reminder that the industry may have peaked.
The Taiwanese company, an industry bellwether whose clients include Qualcomm Inc. and Nvidia Corp., triggered a selloff in chipmakers and tech stocks from Europe to Asia. As the main manufacturer of Apple Inc.’s processors, its tepid revenue forecast also revived fears that the iPhone X may already be losing momentum a quarter after its release. Apple slid almost 3 percent.
In Korea, Samsung Electronics Co. fell as much as 2.2 percent while SK Hynix slid as much as 3.8 percent. Shares of Japanese semiconductor equipment and silicon wafer makers, including Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Alps Electric Co., also fell. But their Chinese peers held up better, given a recent rally on hopes Beijing will prop up the industry as its relationship with Washington sours. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., the largest of the Hong Kong-listed Chinese chipmakers, gained as much as 4.3 percent Friday.
“TSMC still seems to be relatively positive about cryptocurrency mining in the second half though it sees some weakness in the segment in the second quarter, so it appears that it is weakness in demand for iPhones that led to TSMC cutting its full-year forecast,” said Vincent Chen, head of regional research for Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting. “The global semiconductor rout came because TSMC not only trimmed its 2018 growth, but also slashed its forecast for the overall semiconductor market.”
More
Stock market ends with losses as tech and consumer staples skid
Published: Apr 19, 2018 4:27 p.m. ET
Philip Morris suffers worst trading day since being spun off
U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday, with consumer staples, real estate and technology shares leading the losses.Investors continued to digest a mixed bag of corporate earnings. While results have largely come in ahead of expectations thus far, there have been some disappointments, and others haven’t produced the kind of blowout results seen necessary to continue pushing shares higher from elevated levels.
Stocks extended their decline as Treasurys sold off, pushing the yield on the 10-year note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.20% toward a 2018 high. Stocks closed off the lows after a news report said that President Donald Trump was told that he isn’t a target of the probe being conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into whether Trump’s campaign team colluded with Russia in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.34% closed 83.18 points, or 0.3%, lower at 24,664.89, with the day’s decline pushing the blue-chip average back into negative territory for the year.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.57% lost 15.51 points, or 0.6%, to end at 2,693.13, with nine of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors closing in negative territory.
Financials and energy shares were the only industry groups closing in the green. Financials rallied 1.5%.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.78% fell 57.18 points to end at 7,238.06, a decline of 0.8%.
More
April 20, 2018 / 3:47 AM
Japan warns G20 protectionism will disrupt markets
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Japan has warned its G20 counterparts that
protectionism and exchange of retaliatory measures will disrupt financial
markets and heighten volatility.
“I told my G20 counterparts that no country would benefit from
inward-looking policies based on protectionism,” Japan’s Finance Minister Taro
Aso told reporters after a dinner gathering of the G20 finance leaders on
Thursday.
In a speech to the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Aso
stressed the need to solve global imbalances under a multilateral, not a
bilateral, framework.
He also said currency markets remained vulnerable to abrupt shocks that
could disrupt emerging market capital flows, as central banks of advanced
economies start to dial back their crisis-mode stimulus programmes.
But there were no specific discussions on exchange-rate moves at the G20
gathering, Aso said.
Fears of a global trade war are seen dominating talks at the G20
gathering, with the International Monetary Fund warning that protectionism
could hurt otherwise solid global growth.
Aso’s comments followed a summit earlier this week between Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump, which exposed
differences between the two nations on how to frame trade negotiations.
More
China's ZTE Fires Back at U.S., Calls 7-Year Ban ‘Unacceptable'
Bloomberg NewsThe Shenzhen-based communications-equipment maker vowed to protect its rights by legal means without specifying what actions it may take, according to a statement posted on the company’s website. It also said it will continue to resolve the issue through negotiations with the U.S. government.
The forcefully worded statement came days after the U.S. Commerce Department said ZTE had violated the terms of a sanctions settlement and barred the Chinese company from buying any components from U.S. suppliers until 2025. Such a ban would deal a crippling blow to the Chinese company and its aspirations to expand globally.
"The denial order not only severely jeopardizes the survival of ZTE, it also hurts the interests of all the partners of ZTE, including a large number of American companies," said the company.
The case is adding to rising tensions between China and the U.S. over trade. In response to the ZTE ban, China’s Ministry of Commerce said -- twice this week -- that it would take necessary measures to protect the interests of its companies. “The action has given way to widespread market concern on the U.S. trade and investment environment,” a spokesman said.
The Chinese firm relies on suppliers from chipmakers Qualcomm Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. to optical developers Lumentum Holdings Inc. and Acacia Communications Inc. The ban may also stop the company from using Google’s Android operating system, the heart of its smartphones.
Shares of ZTE remain suspended in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Its American Depository Receipts fell 33 percent on Tuesday after news of the ban, but have recovered some of those losses since.
With the election of Trump,
America's soft power has taken a big hit. The United States has moved from a
position of leadership in the creation of a rules-based international system to
a position of leadership in its destruction and the creation of a regime of
global protectionism. The damage will be long-lasting.
Joseph Stiglitz
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, rising US gasoline prices undermine the tax cuts of many. Have
stocks mispriced the tax cuts?
Gas prices will likely wipe out Trump tax cut gains for millions
Ethan
Wolff-Mann Senior Writer Yahoo FinanceApril
18, 2018
Gas prices have risen this month. And if they rise $1.05
per gallon off their current marks, it would eat the disposable income gains of
last year’s tax cut legislation, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
The national average is now $2.76 a gallon, according to GasBuddy, which is
close to the most recent high in mid-2015. A $1 gain per gallon would represent
a full return to the soaring prices of 2014, when the average price for a
gallon approached $3.70. From 2011 to mid-2014, prices were at this level.
While a $1 increase would be required to cancel out
benefits for families of all income levels, lower-income families’ gains would
be wiped out much more quickly.
In fact, Deutsche Bank analysts expect this to happen sometime this year
for these lower-income groups, as the rise in disposable income gets eclipsed
by rising oil and gas prices.
Lower-income families usually spend a higher percentage of their budget
on gas, making price changes more pointed. The lowest-earning 20% of American
families spend 8% of their household budget on gas and oil. For the top 20%,
it’s less than 2%.
But that’s not the only factor. The tax cuts heavily favor wealthier
households, giving them more of a push even if they’re paying more in gas. For
the bottom 20% of families by income, the tax cut gains are only around $50,
according to the U.S. government’s Joint Committee on Taxation. At the same
time, a household that earns $200,000 would save $12,000. At 2014 prices — the
worst-case of gas prices in recent memory — that would pay for 81,075 miles in
a 25 mpg vehicle.
According to Deutsche Bank, the relationship of disposable income and
energy has long been a tight one. For every one-cent rise in gas prices,
consumer spending on non-energy goods and services has fallen $1.16 billion. So
thus far, from last year, analysts are expecting a reduction of income
allocated to non-energy stuff to fall by $35 billion.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Battery's hidden layer revealed
Date:
April 18, 2018
Source:
DOE/Argonne National Laboratory
Summary:
An international team makes breakthrough in understanding the chemistry of the
microscopically thin layer that forms between the liquid electrolyte and solid
electrode in lithium-ion batteries. The results are being used in improving the
layer and better predicting battery lifetime.
Commercially available since the 1970s, the lithium-ion battery is now
the workhorse power source in many applications. It can be found in cell
phones, laptops and electric vehicles. Yet, much about the basic science taking
place at the atomic and molecular levels during charge and discharge remains a
mystery.
In a new study published in Nature Catalysis, a team at the U.S.
Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory reports a breakthrough
in understanding the chemistry of the microscopically thin layer that forms at
the interface between the liquid electrolyte and solid electrode. Battery
researchers commonly refer to this layer as the "solid-electrolyte
interphase" or SEI.
Much scientific work over the last several decades has been devoted to
understanding the SEI in the lithium-ion battery. Scientists know that the SEI
forms on the graphite negative electrode, is extremely thin (less than a
thousandth of a millimeter), and primarily takes shape during the first charge
of the battery. Also well-established is that the SEI prevents detrimental
reactions from occurring at the interface, while at the same time allowing the
important lithium ions free rein to move between the electrolyte and electrode.
All good lithium-ion batteries have well-functioning SEIs. As Dusan
Strmcnik -- a co-principal investigator and assistant chemical engineer in the
Materials Science division (MSD) -- noted, "Battery performance is highly
dependent on the quality of the SEI. If the chemistry and the role of
individual components of the SEI are understood, the SEI could be tuned to
improve battery performance."
"More importantly, such understanding would significantly improve
our predictive ability of battery lifetime, which is of extremely high value to
an electric car manufacturer," Strmcnik added.
The international team of researchers, which includes collaborators from
the University of Copenhagen, the Technische Universität München in Germany and
the BMW Group, deciphered the chemistry behind one of the more common
components of the SEI in typical lithium-ion batteries, lithium fluoride. Based
on both experimental and computational results, their findings showed that this
phase forms during battery charge by the electrochemical reaction of hydrogen
fluoride, producing hydrogen gas and solid lithium fluoride.
More
Another weekend and
still time to reach compromises on world trade. But will anyone attending
Washington this weekend actually try? Have a great weekend everyone, and no,
your LIR editor is not foolish enough to enter the London marathon.
“For centuries
England has relied on protection, has carried it to extremes, and has obtained
satisfactory results from it. There is no doubt that it is to this system that
it owes its present strength. After two centuries, England has found it
convenient to adopt free trade because it thinks that protection can no longer
offer it anything. Very well then, gentlemen, my knowledge of our country leads
me to believe that within two hundred years, when America has gotten out of
protection all that it can offer, it too will adopt free trade.”
Ulysses
S. Grant
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.
DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down
10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13. SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March. For some a new bear signal, for
others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
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