Thursday, 12 April 2018

Trump At The Abyss.


Baltic Dry Index. 979 +05     Brent Crude 72.28

“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn't be. And what it wouldn't be, it would. You see?”

President Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll

Will we be at nuclear war by this weekend? Probably not, though the White House says that “all options are on the table” for military action against Syria. Just the usual American bluster and overkill, for no one is intending to use nukes in Syria. That aside, the situation facing the world is about as bleak as it’s possible to be.

Americans seem to have voted in an unstable President all too inclined to go off half cocked. Ten days ago he wanted US troops out of Syria. This week he backed himself into publicly declared missile attack on Syria, which Russia says it will oppose also militarily. Yet no one yet knows if a chemical attack actually took place, and if it did, why, and who was behind it. As with the nerve agent attack in Salisbury, verdict first, trial later. Neither event stands up to the logic so far put into the public domain

Add into the mix, China says the trade war is back on, the Fed’s talking about raising interest rates faster, crude oil is signalling inflation in the monthly figures right ahead, and Trump clearing the decks for action against Iran right ahead.

Bunker time, risk off due to the high probability of unintended consequences, and human error. It’s sell out on the rallies rather than buy the dips. 

"Covert action should not be confused with missionary work."

Henry Kissinger. 

April 12, 2018 / 1:54 AM / Updated 44 minutes ago

Asian stocks on edge, oil soars on escalating Middle East tensions

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as the threat of imminent U.S. military action in Syria rattled investors and sent oil prices to their highest levels since late 2014 on concerns about supply.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS slipped 0.3 percent while Japan's Nikkei .N225 was down slightly.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.55 percent and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 0.36 percent while energy shares .SPNY gained more than 1 percent on rising oil prices.

Trump declared that missiles “will be coming” in Syria, taunting Russia for supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a suspected chemical attack on rebels. Damascus and Moscow have denied any responsibility.

His comments raised the prospect of direct conflict over Syria for the first time between the two world powers backing opposing sides in the seven-year-old civil war, which has also escalated a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

“Last year Russia and Syria did not shoot back against U.S. missiles. But this time the scale of possible attacks by the U.S. and possibly its allies seems larger. If Russia fires back, the war front will be bigger,” said Hidenori Suezawa, financial market analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities.
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April 11, 2018 / 11:00 AM

Trump signals strikes against Syria, lays into Assad ally Russia

WASHINGTON/BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump warned Russia on Wednesday of imminent military action in Syria over a suspected poison gas attack, declaring that missiles “will be coming” and lambasting Moscow for standing by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The White House pushed back against suggestions that Trump had broadcast his plans for military strikes via Twitter, saying he had not laid out a timetable for action, that all options were still on the table and he was assessing how to respond.

Trump’s tweet was reacting to a warning from Russia that any U.S. missiles fired at Syria over the deadly assault on Saturday on the rebel enclave of Douma near Damascus would be shot down and the launch sites targeted.

His comments raised the prospect of direct conflict over Syria for the first time between the two world powers backing opposing sides in the seven-year-old civil war, which has aggravated instability across the Middle East.

“Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and ‘smart!’,” Trump wrote on Twitter.

“You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!” Trump tweeted, referring to Moscow’s alliance with Assad.

In response, Russia’s foreign ministry said: “Smart missiles should fly towards terrorists, not towards the lawful government”.

Damascus and Moscow have denied any responsibility and say the incident is bogus.
More

April 11, 2018 / 12:49 PM

Wall Street falls on Syria concerns, interest rate worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks fell on Wednesday as possible U.S. military action against Syria stoked investor concerns about geopolitical risk to the American economy and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee sparked worries about a more hawkish view on interest-rate increases.

The decline followed two days of gains, driven by easing concerns about trade tensions between the United States and China.

----The rising tensions sent oil prices surging, boosting energy stocks .SPNY 1 percent. But the risk-off sentiment weighed on Treasury yields US10YT=RR, pushing financial stocks .SPSY down 1.3 percent.

“There’s general nervousness about what might happen with any strikes and the potential escalation of tensions with Russia,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments in Boston.

The major Wall Street indexes edged even lower after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee showed concern among a few of its members that rising inflation might require a faster pace of interest rate hikes than anticipated

The major Wall Street indexes edged even lower after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee showed concern among a few of its members that rising inflation might require a faster pace of interest rate hikes than anticipated.
More

In other news, the trade war with China is back on. President Trump picked now as the perfect time to start a new spat with the Saudis, supposedly because of coming action against Iran.

China Says It Has a Detailed Plan to Hit Back at U.S. on Tariffs

Bloomberg News
China will “unquestionably” retaliate if the U.S. further escalates trade tension, and authorities have prepared a detailed, comprehensive counter-punch plan, a senior trade official said.

The government hasn’t conducted any negotiations at any level with American counterparts recently, Commerce Ministry Spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday at a press conference in Beijing. “We can’t talk under the unilateral threat from the U.S.,” he said.

Gao said recent opening-up measures announced by China have nothing to do with pressure from ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., and that the government has never intervened to require foreign companies to share their proprietary technology as a condition of doing business in the country.

“We’ll firmly push forward the Made in China 2025 plan,” he said.


People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang unveiled specific steps to further open the financial sector Wednesday, following pledges from President Xi Jinping to liberalize finance, automobiles and other industries. The measures raised hopes that tensions between the world’s two biggest economies could ease. Bloomberg reported earlier that talks have stalled because of the U.S. request to end state support for the high-tech sector.

April 11, 2018 / 9:01 PM

In call with Saudi king, Trump demanded quick end to Gulf rift - U.S. officials

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a telephone call this month with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, President Donald Trump demanded that the kingdom and its Arab partners quickly end a nearly year-old dispute with Qatar that has left U.S. allies in the region fractured, according to two U.S. officials briefed on the conversation.

Trump wants the rift healed to restore unity among Arab Gulf states and present a united front against Iran, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss high-level diplomatic communications.

Trump’s tone in the April 2 call with Salman was described by one official as “forceful.” It was not clear what the king’s response was.

Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut off travel and trade ties with Qatar last June, accusing it of backing their arch-rival, Iran, and supporting terrorism. Qatar denies the charges and says the boycott impinges on its sovereignty.

----A second official knowledgeable about the call said Trump insisted that the rift within the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council be patched up within three weeks, in part because of a looming decision on Iran.
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“Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

President Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll, and Alice.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, markets and geopolitical risk.
“I don't like the looks of it,' said the Donald: 'however, it may kiss my hand, if it likes.'
'I'd rather not,' China remarked.”
With apologies to  Lewis Carroll, and Alice

Geopolitical risk matters again. Here’s what it means for the markets

Published: Apr 11, 2018 3:55 p.m. ET

Commodities are outperforming stocks and bonds

In 2017, geopolitical concerns ranging from White House turmoil to North Korea rarely caused more than a ripple in financial markets. In 2018, it’s a different story as a China-U.S. trade spat and rising tensions over Syria also enter the mix.

At least that’s the tale told by the difference in performance by commodities overall, particularly oil, and stocks and bonds, observed economists at Capital Economics, in a Wednesday note.

While Middle Eastern politics and conflict have long been part of the oil market, the return of geopolitics as a driving force even seems to have unsettled some analysts.

“As analysts who deal primarily with supply and demand, we feel uneasy at present because the fundamental data are dominated by politics. The current abundance of (bullish) news is forcing us into the unfamiliar role of a political observer,” wrote commodity analysts led by Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank, in a Wednesday note.

Commodity prices rebounded at the start of the month, lifted by concerns over U.S. sanctions on Russia and escalating tensions in the Middle East, despite a flat performance by the U.S. dollar. Only the precious metals subindex, which saw a more restrained rise, failed to jump.

Meanwhile, the return of geopolitical turmoil has led commodities to largely outperform equities and bonds over the last month and since the start of the year, the Capital Economics analysts observed, pointing to the chart below:

----The Bloomberg Commodity Index BCOMSP, +0.65%  is up 2% in April and 1.2% for the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.55%  is up 0.2% in April and off more than 1% since the end of 2017.

Stocks have been buffeted by the trade spat between the U.S. and China, often falling on any perceived ramp-up in hostility and, as illustrated by Tuesday’s price action, rising on any perceived easing of tensions.

Read: How China’s Xi, without blinking on trade, got the stock market to cheer

Stocks have also appeared more sensitive to developments surrounding turmoil in the White House, as illustrated by a historic late-session swoon Monday after news broke that federal agents had raided the home, office and hotel room of Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.

But it’s the crude-oil market where expectations of an imminent U.S.-led military strike on the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in response to an alleged chemical attack on the rebel-held city of Douma that’s reflecting rising Middle East tensions. Oil traded at its highest levels since late 2014 on Wednesday on fears conflict could lead to supply disruptions.
More

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Today something a little different. Long term hope for Alzheimer’s sufferers.

Scientists neutralize and reverse a key genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's

Michael Irving  April 11 2018
Alzheimer's disease has a range of risk factors, but one of the clearest connections is the gene apoE4. Now, researchers at the Gladstone Institutes have peered closer at the protein encoded by this gene and uncovered how it affects the brain, how it increases the risks of Alzheimer's and most importantly, how the damage can be reversed.

The apoE gene comes in three variations, apoE2, E3 and E4, and everybody carries two copies in various combinations. The most common form is apoE3, and it doesn't seem to have any influence over a person's likelihood of developing Alzheimer's. But apoE4, present in up to 15 percent of people, is the real troublemaker: Having one copy increases the Alzheimer's risk by two to three times, while those unlucky enough to have two copies are 12 times more likely to develop the disease.

But why is that the case? The proteins created by these genes are extremely similar, with apoE4 differing from apoE3 at only one tiny point. So, the new study set out to examine what problems the former is causing in the brain, and whether that single change can be canceled out.

Rather than using mouse models, the results of which don't usually translate well to human biology, the Gladstone researchers experimented with human cells instead. The team gathered skin cells from Alzheimer's patients with two apoE4 genes, as well as some from people with two apoE3 genes without Alzheimer's. These were converted into induced pluripotent stem cells, and then turned into human neurons.

The team compared the neurons from the apoE3 and apoE4 donors, and found that the latter didn't function as well as they should. This means the protein breaks down into fragments in the cells, over time leading to the build-up of proteins in the brain that forms the calling card of Alzheimer's.

Interestingly, apoE4's devastating effects are clear in humans but not in mice. That illustrates the flaws in using animal models of human diseases, and may go a long way towards explaining why treatments that previously seemed so promising in mice haven't panned out in human trials.

"There's an important species difference in the effect of apoE4 on amyloid beta," says Chengzhong Wang, first author of the study. "Increased amyloid beta production is not seen in mouse neurons and could potentially explain some of the discrepancies between mice and humans regarding drug efficacy. This will be very important information for future drug development."

----Best of all, the researchers were able to fix the damage after the fact, using a class of compounds that turn apoE4 into something closer to E3. Treating the brain cells with these structure-correcting molecules restored function to the neurons, and effectively reversed the signs of Alzheimer's. The scientists are now looking to the pharmaceutical industry to help with improving the compounds for future testing in human patients.

The research was published in the journal Nature Medicine.
Source: Gladstone Institutes

"No, no!" said the Queen. "Sentence first–verdict afterward."
"Stuff and nonsense!" said Alice loudly. "The idea of having the sentence first!"
"Hold your tongue!" said the Queen, turning purple.
"I won't!" said Alice.
"Off with her head!" the Queen shouted at the top of her voice. Nobody moved.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March.

DJIA: 24,103 +272 Down 10. NASDAQ: 7,063 +300 Down 13. SP500: 2,641 +202 Down 10.
All three slow indicators moved down in March. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

1 comment:

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