Baltic Dry Index. 1528 +127 Brent Crude 81.05
Spot Gold 1779 US 2 Year Yield 4.23 unch.
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 15/12/22 World 656,370,129
Deaths 6,667,609
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
Yesterday the BOE, ECB and Swiss National
Bank all raised their key interest rates as expected, putting more pressure on
the global stock casinos now well over priced in the likelihood of a severe
2023 recession.
The central banks fuelled “everything” bubble
is now getting replaced with the Great Biden Bust.
Run, do not walk to the exits. Getting out
first always beats getting carried out last.
Great bargains lie ahead later in 2023 for
those cash rich and patient.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade lower as recession fears grow
UPDATED FRI, DEC 16 2022 12:27 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific
markets traded mostly lower as recession fears grow. Disappointing
U.S. retail sales for November suggested inflation is taking a
toll on consumers and raising fears that the Fed’s rate hikes are tipping the
economy into a recession.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan fell 1.98%, leading losses in the region, while the Topix lost 1.16%. The
Kospi in South Korea also fell 0.48%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.78%.
The Hang Seng index gained
0.2% while the Shenzhen
Component fell 0.82% in mainland China. The Shanghai Composite fell
0.3% as the second day of China’s annual Central Economic Work
Conference reportedly took place behind closed doors.
Hong Kong will release its unemployment rate
reading for the September-November period later in the day.
The U.S. Commerce Department slapped
restrictions on Chinese companies over their efforts to use
advanced technologies to help modernize China’s military. That comes just two months after the Biden
administration curbed China’s
access to advanced semiconductors.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade lower as recession fears grow (cnbc.com)
Stocks
Plunge as Recession Fears, Federal Reserve Dash Investor Hopes
By December 15, 2022 Updated:
December 15, 2022
The U.S. stock
market suffered one of its worst days of 2022 as the leading benchmark indexes
fell sharply on Dec. 15, dashing hopes for a year-end Santa Claus rally.
Investors engaged
in a broad-based selloff toward the end of the trading week. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJIA) ended 764 points lower on Dec. 15. The tech-heavy
Nasdaq Composite Index plunged by 3.2 percent, while the S&P 500 Index lost
nearly 2.5 percent.
Year to date, the
Nasdaq has lost nearly 32 percent, the S&P 500 has tumbled by more than 18
percent, and the DJIA has slumped by 9.2 percent.
Some of the biggest
names on the New York Stock Exchange endured steep losses. Shares of Alphabet,
Amazon, and Apple lost more than 4 percent. Meta shed close to 6 percent, while
Netflix plummeted by 8.6 percent. Bank shares also slumped, with Bank of
America and JPMorgan Chase declining by nearly 2 percent.
----Traders sought shelter in traditional safe-haven assets. The benchmark
10-year yield shed roughly 6 basis points to about 3.44 percent. The U.S.
Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of currencies, surged
above 104.
Weak
economic data spooked markets.
According to the Census Bureau,
retail sales tumbled by
0.6 percent month-over-month in November. That’s down from the 1.3 percent
increase in October and worse than the market projection of a 0.1 percent drop.
It represented the largest slide this year, led by declines in sales for
furniture (negative 2.6 percent), building materials (negative 2.5 percent),
motor vehicles (negative 2.3 percent), and electronics (negative 1.5 percent).
Manufacturing numbers also added
to widespread recession concerns.
Last month, industrial and manufacturing production slid by
0.2 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. The New
York Empire State Manufacturing Index weakened to negative
11.2, while the Philadelphia
Fed Manufacturing Index came in at a worse-than-expected
negative 13.8.
Labor numbers were mixed as
initial jobless claims tumbled to 211,000 for the week that ended on Dec. 10,
Department of Labor numbers show (pdf).
But continuing jobless claims edged up to 1.671 million.
The latest statistics prompted
the Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta to trim its fourth quarter GDPNow model to
2.8 percent, down from the previous estimate of 3.2 percent.
More
Stocks
Plunge as Recession Fears, Federal Reserve Dash Investor Hopes
(theepochtimes.com)
The big story
on the market downturn: The wealth bubble is popping
While recent
crashes in British bond prices, real estate in China,
and stocks in
the U.S. were driven by different catalysts, they all reflect a common cause
largely ignored: the popping of a worldwide wealth bubble.
The implications are huge for
economies, fiscal and monetary policy, investors and savers everywhere. Even if
the Federal Reserve succeeds in deflating the rate of growth in consumer prices
in the U.S., it needs to be careful about how much it re-inflates this huge
wealth bubble when it starts lowering interest rates.
In the 1947 to 1990 period, the
net worth of all households and nonprofit institutions on average equaled about four times the
annual economic output; at the end of 2021, the ratio equaled about six and a half times an
output of $23 trillion. By the end of 2021, the excess growth in asset prices
by itself had added more than $50
trillion to the measured net worth of households.
Put another way, every $100,000
you might have had in home equity and retirement saving on Dec. 31, 2021, would
have been worth only about $60,000 without this excess asset price inflation.
The drop in stock values during 2022 has taken away only a small fraction of
that $40,000 gain.
Looking to restore this
1990-to-2021 world might stimulate the economy in the short run, but the
long-term consequences can no longer be ignored, as recent British and Chinese
examples warn us.
One is rising wealth inequality.
We’ve already seen how the Fed’s re-inflation of asset prices during the Great
Recession, however necessary, led to greater wealth
inequality than existed before then.
But it’s not just rich versus
poor; it’s old versus young. Today, many like myself who bought a home decades
ago have seen gains that made our cost of housing almost free. Not so for our
children and grandchildren buying at today’s inflated prices. In many ways, the
young should want the bubble to burst so that they can buy homes and retirement
assets at lower prices.
Years of low nominal interest
rates gave investors extraordinary incentives to get some of the “free money”
created by negative costs of borrowing once adjusted for taxes, inflation and
bankruptcy protections. Despite rising nominal interest rates, today’s real
borrowing costs continue to be negative just by subtracting out inflation.
Buying unproductive assets becomes profitable when negative asset returns are
less than negative borrowing costs. The large tax shelter market in the 1970s
and early 1980s provides one example of what happens when borrowing costs
become negative. Only when Paul Volcker got nominal interest rates above 20 percent did
the real cost of borrowing become positive and stagflation come to a halt.
More
The
big story on the market downturn: The wealth bubble is popping | The Hill
Finally, Professor of Finance at Kings
College London, Patrick Boyle on the multiple fraud and conspiracy and money
laundering cases against SBF. Approx. 26 minutes. Can SBF roll on CZ? Probably not, but given
Patrick’s gloomy analysis and facing a 115 year sentence, it might be worth a
try for SBF.
The
Case Against Sam Bankman-Fried
The Case Against Sam
Bankman-Fried - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Analysis-Investors
bet Fed will blink if recession hits despite 'higher for longer' mantra
December
15 2022
(Reuters) - Some investors believe an expected recession will force the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy next year, even as the central bank projects it will raise rates higher than it previously anticipated and keep them there longer as it fights to crush inflation.
The dynamic came into stark focus
after the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, when it delivered a
widely expected 50 basis point rate increase and projected borrowing costs will
rise by an additional 75 basis points by the end of 2023 - half a percentage
point higher than officials forecast in September.
Such a move would take the fed funds
rate to around 5.1%, according to the median estimate in the Fed's quarterly
summary of economic projections - a level not seen since 2007. The fed funds
rate currently stands in the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Rates futures markets told a
different story, however, with investors late Wednesday betting the Fed would
continue raising rates in the first half of 2023 before cutting them back to
around 4.4% by year end.
"The Fed is struggling to
convince markets to move in their direction," said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior
global rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle, who is betting that 10-year
Treasuries will continue a recent rebound. "There's ... lack of belief in
the Fed's ability to move rates significantly above 5 percent."
How much higher borrowing costs will
rise and whether restrictive monetary policy will plunge the economy into
recession are questions that have consumed investors for months, as the Fed
embarks on its most aggressive rate increases since the 1980s to defeat surging
inflation.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on
Wednesday that the Fed's projections don't necessarily mean the economy will
fall into a recession, he suggested the risk is worth it and that policymakers
have no plans to cushion the blow by cutting rates - echoing a message he has
delivered on previous occasions.
Nonetheless, hopes that inflation
will peak and allow the Fed to stop raising rates sooner have reverberated
throughout markets in recent weeks, sparking a rally in the S&P from its
recent lows, toppling the U.S. dollar from a two-decade high and fueling a
sharp rebound in battered Treasuries.
More
Analysis-Investors bet Fed will blink if recession hits despite 'higher for longer' mantra (msn.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Covid: Jack Last died as
result of AstraZeneca vaccine – coroner
14
December 2022
A man died of a blood clot that was a "direct result" of having the AstraZeneca Covid jab, a coroner said.
Jack Last, 27, from
Stowmarket, was vaccinated on 30 March 2021 and a week later was admitted to
hospital after experiencing headaches and sickness.
A scan on 10 April revealed a cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) and he died 10 days later.
Senior coroner Nigel Parsley recorded a narrative conclusion at Suffolk Coroner's Court.
He said: "Jack Last died of a blood clot to the brain, caused as a direct result of his body's reaction to the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccination which he had received on March 30, 2021."
Speaking after the two-day inquest, the solicitor working on behalf of the family said they would be pursuing a clinical negligence case against the hospitals involved in Mr Last's care.
The hearing in
Ipswich was told engineer Mr Last was otherwise a "fit and well" man.
It was told Mr Last was initially diagnosed with a migraine at West Suffolk Hospital in Bury St Edmunds before further tests identified CVST.
Mr Last was given anticoagulation to thin the clot, but he developed a bleed on the brain.
He was transferred to Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge for further treatment but later died.
During the hearing, it was heard Mr Last was unable to have a CT venogram scan at the first opportunity because the out-of-hours radiographer did not have the "technical expertise" to perform the scan.
This has since been changed, the inquest was told, and there was now 24-hour provision, seven days a week.
After the hearing, Michael Portman-Hann, representing the family, said that had the hospital been able to do the correct scan, "treatment would have been started sooner and Jack might have survived".
He said: "On
behalf of Jack's family, we will now be pursuing a clinical negligence case
against the hospitals that could and should have been able to do more to try to
save him."
More
Covid: Jack Last
died as result of AstraZeneca vaccine – coroner - BBC News
Australian Cardiologist Calls to
Halt mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines, Citing Heart Damage
Dec 14 2022
----COVID-19
Vaccines Cause Myocarditis and Pericarditis
A growing body of peer-reviewed scientific evidence links
heart issues with the mRNA vaccines.
So much so that the CDC and
other government authorities in the United States and around the world now recognize that the COVID-19 vaccines are causing myocarditis—heart inflammation which is
considered more severe than pericarditis because it causes inflammation of the
heart muscle.
In June 2022, the FDA’s Tom
Shimabukuro, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A., identified as part of the CDC COVID-19
Vaccine Coordination Unit, reported that: “Current evidence supports a causal association
between mRNA COVID-19 vaccination and myocarditis and pericarditis.”
Six months later, as of Dec. 2,
2022, there have been a total of 35,718 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis reported
to the government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System.
An
Australian Cardiologist Speaks Out
After witnessing as many as 70 cases of vaccine-related heart
conditions similar to Eskandar’s, Australian Cardiologist Dr. Ross Walker is
now saying
publicly that he
believes there should be a ban on the use of mRNA booster vaccines.
According to Walker, the mRNA vaccines are “very pro-inflammatory,” he told Daily Mail Australia. “ He contended that The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization should never have mandated mRNA vaccines.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
H3 debuts all-in-one hydrogen powertrain pods for long-range
flight
Loz Blain December 14, 2022
France's H3
Dynamics has presented its self-contained hydrogen propulsion pods for retrofit
or line fit to drones and airplanes. They deliver enormous range and endurance
figures without heavy batteries, and they mirror the approach Airbus and others
are taking with commercial airliners.
Batteries
weigh aircraft down, they can heat up, and they take a long time to charge –
but they're very simple, easy to use, and they store enough energy for many use
cases. Hydrogen is a pain in the butt at every step of the way, but used in a
fuel cell powertrain it carries so much more energy than lithium batteries for
the weight it costs that you can keep your aircraft flying for ridiculous
lengths of time.
To
illustrate, back in 2020, we compared the world
record endurance flights of multicopter drones running on pure battery power (1 hour, 51 minutes), a
16-liter gasoline-electric hybrid system (10 hours, 14 minutes), and a
hideously ugly hydrogen fuel cell system fed by 6 liters of gas (12 hours, 7
minutes). If range and endurance are your priority, batteries don't come close
to hydrogen.
And while
it's possible to stick the hydrogen tanks and fuel cells in the middle of an
airframe, where the combustion powertrain or battery pack would normally live,
there's a few reasons why you might not want to. Hydrogen weighs less than
batteries, but takes up a lot of volume. You might want to dedicate that space
to cargo, for starters. Or, if you're talking about a bigger airframe,
passengers. If you're talking about passengers, there might be some
psychological value in having the hydrogen stored well away from the cabin, and
putting the whole system out on the wing probably helps with cooling and
airflow as well.
Thus, Airbus
is looking at self-contained end-to-end hydrogen propulsion systems for its future zero-emissions airliners. Fully
swappable units that can be popped on and off for maintenance and whatnot
without disrupting an aircraft's flight schedule.
And it's a similar concept
here with H3 Dynamics. These guys have developed a lightweight, aerodynamic
hydrogen propulsion nascelle containing a hydrogen tank, fuel cell system,
electric motor and propeller; the whole powertrain. You can piggyback it on top
of a fixed-wing fuselage, or you can stick multiple units out along the wings
for distributed propulsion.
More
H3 debuts all-in-one hydrogen powertrain pods for long-range flight (newatlas.com)
Another
weekend and another weekend of missing billions at FTX/Alameda. The last
weekend of boom before the Great Biden Bust of 2023? Have a great weekend
everyone.
"Indeed the temporary
breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those
who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February
and March of 1929 it seemed that the end had come. On various of these
occasions the [New York] Times
happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again.
Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was
coming when the optimists would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has
long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance
were similarly, if less permanently discredited.”
J. K. Galbraith. The Great
Crash: 1929.
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