Baltic
Dry Index. 1515 Brent Crude 85.55
Spot Gold 1839 US 2 Year Yield 4.41 +0.07
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 03/01/23 World 665,589,906
Deaths 6,699,339
It is the
first trading week of 2023 and in Asia it’s off to a wobbly start. After a
stock and bond market rout in 2022 and a gigantic crash and fraud in
cryptocurrencies, many hedge funds and private equity groups will be facing a
tsunami of redemption requests.
A difficult first half of 2023 lies ahead.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade mixed as region kicks off 2023
UPDATED MON, JAN 2 2023 11:26 PM
EST
Markets in
the Asia-Pacific traded mixed to commence the first trading week for the year.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
1.42% on its first trading session of 2023. South Korea’s Kospi fell
0.38% after paring some of its earlier losses – the Kosdaq shed 1.05%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded
1.17% higher while the Shanghai Composite in
mainland rose 0.57% and the Shenzhen Component gained
0.55%.
The Caixin purchasing managers’ index showed
further declines in factory activity on surging Covid infections. Meanwhile,
the survey also showed business confidence around the 12-month outlook for
output improved to the highest since February.
The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering
raising its inflation forecasts in January to inch closer to the central bank’s
target of 2% in fiscal 2023 and 2024, Nikkei reported over the weekend.
In the U.S., major indexes closed
the 2022 year with their worst losses since 2008, each snapping
a three-year win streak. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% for the year, the Nasdaq
lost 33.1% and the Dow closed 8.8%.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade mixed as region kicks off 2023 (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
fall ahead of the first trading week of the new year
UPDATED MON, JAN 2 2023 8:49 PM
EST
Stock futures fell
Monday evening as traders braced themselves for a flurry of economic data and
the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting this week to kick off the
new year.
Futures tied to the
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 72 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures shed
0.28% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.44%.
All of the major
averages closed 2022 with their worst losses since 2008, each snapping a
three-year win streak. The Dow ended the year down about 8.8% at 33,147.25, and
10.3% off its 52-week high. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% for the year and now
sits at 3,839.50, more than 20% below its record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq
tumbled 33.1% last year. It’s starting 2023 almost 34% from its record, at
10,466.88.
Inflation sparking “the worst defeat for both stocks and bonds
in decades” was the biggest investor narrative for 2022, according to
Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments. The new year kicks off with a cloud
of worry that a “harder-than-desired landing” by the Fed and its inflation
fighting moves could push the economy into a recession.
---- Investors are getting a bundle of data in
the first trading week of the year and investors will be watching closely,
looking for opportunities to adjust their portfolios to recover from the 2022
carnage. Wednesday is a big day with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Survey, better known as JOLTS, due out in the morning and the minutes of the
Fed’s latest policy meeting set to come out in the afternoon.
They’re also
looking forward to Friday’s December jobs report, the final employment report
the Fed will have to consider before its next meeting on Feb. 1. There are also
several speeches by Fed presidents scheduled Thursday and Friday.
First up, however,
are S&P Global manufacturing PMI and construction spending, due out at 9:45
a.m. and 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
Stock
futures fall ahead of the first trading week of the new year (cnbc.com)
Market
misery dealt sovereign wealth funds historic setback in 2022, study shows
January 1, 2023 2:20 PM GMT
LONDON, Jan 1
(Reuters) - Heavy falls in stock and bond markets over the last year have cut
the combined value of the world's sovereign wealth and public pension funds for
the first time ever - and to the tune of $2.2 trillion, an annual study of the
sector has estimated.
The report on
state-owned investment vehicles by industry specialist Global SWF found that
the value of assets managed by sovereign wealth funds fell to $10.6 trillion
from $11.5 trillion, while those of public pension funds dropped to $20.8
trillion from $22.1 trillion.
Global SWF's
Diego López said the main driver had been the "simultaneous and
significant" 10%-plus corrections suffered by major bond and stock
markets, a combination that had not happened in 50 years.
It came as
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted commodity prices and drove already-rising
inflation rates to 40-year highs. In response, the U.S. Federal reserve and other
major central banks jacked up their interest rates causing a global
market sell-off.
"These are paper losses
and some of the funds will not see them realized in their role as long-term
investors," López said. "But it is quite telling of the moment we are
living."
More
Market misery
dealt sovereign wealth funds historic setback in 2022, study shows | Reuters
In Cryptoland
news, nothing but more bad news. Is another fraud coming to light?
Winklevoss
says crypto broker Genesis negotiating in bad faith
January
3, 20234:38 AM GMT
Jan 2 (Reuters) -
Cameron Winklevoss, who founded crypto exchange Gemini Trust Co with his twin
brother, on Monday accused Digital Currency Group (DCG) CEO Barry Silbert of
"bad faith stall tactics" and asked him to commit to resolving $900
million worth of disputed customer assets by Jan. 8.
Gemini
has a crypto lending product called Earn in partnership with DCG's crypto firm
Genesis. Genesis halted customer withdrawals in November,
following the collapse of major crypto exchange FTX.
Winklevoss said
Genesis owed more than $900 million to some 340,000 Earn investors, and that he
had been trying to reach a "consensual resolution" with Silbert for
the past six weeks.
"However,
it is now becoming clear that you have been engaging in bad faith stall
tactics," Winklevoss wrote in an open letter to Silbert that was posted on
Twitter.
---- Winklevoss
wrote that DCG owed Genesis $1.675 billion, which was money that Genesis in
turn owed to Earn users and other creditors, adding "this mess is entirely
of your own making."
Silbert
responded in a tweet that DCG did not borrow $1.675
billion from Genesis.
"DCG
has never missed an interest payment to Genesis and is current on all loans
outstanding," Silbert said, adding that DCG delivered a proposal to
Genesis and Winklevoss' advisers on Dec. 29 and did not receive a response.
Genesis wrote in a letter to clients on Dec. 7 that it was working to preserve client
assets and strengthen liquidity, adding that it would take "weeks rather
than days" to form a plan.
Winklevoss
says crypto broker Genesis negotiating in bad faith | Reuters
Finally, does
Scotland really need two “spaceports?” I’m sceptical either can ever be
profitable or practical. Given the natives favourite sustenance during the long
dark, wet and very windy, winter nights, is this a very wise thing to be
attempting at all?
Two Scottish
spaceports are 'months away' from their first orbital lift offs
Mon, 2 January 2023 at 7:30 am GMT
Two spaceports being
built in Scotland are months away from their first orbital lift-offs,
the Scottish Government has said.
A new expert group has been
formed to advise ministers and companies on how to maximise opportunities for the sector.
The Scotland International Space
Advisory Committee (Sisac) consists of Scots connected to the space industry
around the world.
A company called Orbex plans to
launch commercial satellites in its Prime rocket from the A'Mhoine peninsula in
Sutherland.
Meanwhile, the SaxaVord spaceport
on the Shetland Islands will be used by several firms, including the
Edinburgh-based Skyrora.
The Scottish Government said the
first orbital launches from both sites are expected in 2023.
Business minister
Ivan McKee said: "Space brings great opportunity for Scotland in terms of
the economic development it delivers, its relevance for the climate change
agenda and the power it has to inspire the next generation.
"That is why the Scottish
Government has identified it as a priority in our National Strategy for
Economic Transformation.
"The space sector is a key
opportunity for the future and we will continue to build on our strengths.
"The expertise and insight
offered by the members of Sisac will be hugely beneficial to our progress.
"I am grateful to the
members of this new committee for volunteering to come together to help
Scotland live up to its full potential in growing the space sector."
More
Two Scottish
spaceports are 'months away' from their first orbital lift offs (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Global economy faces tough
year in 2023, IMF head Georgieva warns
Issued on: 02/01/2023
- 05:34
For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth - the United States, Europe and China - all experience weakening activity, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday.
The new year
is going to be "tougher than the year we leave behind," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on
the CBS Sunday morning news program "Face the Nation."
"Why?
Because the three big economies - the
US, EU and China - are all slowing down simultaneously," she said.
In October,
the IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2023,
reflecting the continuing drag from the war in Ukraine as well as inflation pressures and the high interest rates
engineered by central banks like the US Federal Reserve aimed at bringing
those price pressures to heel.
Since then, China has scrapped
its zero-COVID policy and embarked on a chaotic reopening of its economy,
though consumers there remain wary as coronavirus cases surge. In his first
public comments since the change in policy, President Xi Jinping on
Saturday called in a New Year's address for more effort and unity as China
enters a "new phase."
"For the first time in 40 years,
China's growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth,"
Georgieva said.
Moreover, a "bushfire" of
expected COVID infections there in the months ahead are likely to further hit
its economy this year and drag on both regional and global growth, said
Georgieva, who traveled to China on IMF business late last month.
"I was in China last week, in a
bubble in a city where there is zero COVID," she said. "But that is
not going to last once people start traveling."
"For the next couple of months, it
would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative,
the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be
negative," she said.
In October's forecast,
the IMF pegged Chinese gross domestic product growth last year at
3.2% - on par with the fund's global outlook for 2022. At that time, it
also saw annual growth in China accelerating in 2023 to 4.4% while global
activity slowed further.
Her comments, however, suggest another
cut to both the China and global growth outlooks may be in the offing later
this month when the IMF typically unveils updated forecasts during
the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
More
Global economy
faces tough year in 2023, IMF head Georgieva warns (france24.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Some
in China return to regular activity after COVID infections
January 2, 2023
3:50 AM GMT
BEIJING/WUHAN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Some
people in China's key cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan braved the cold and
a spike in COVID-19 infections to return to regular activity on Monday,
confident of a boost to the economy as more recover from infections.
Among those who gathered to sled or ice
skate on a frozen lake in the capital's Shichahai Lake Park were some upbeat
about the opening-up, after China dropped stringent "zero-COVID"
measures on Dec. 7 to adopt a strategy of living with the virus.
However, a wave of infections has since
erupted nationwide, after borders had been kept all but shut for three years
amid a strict regime of lockdowns and relentless testing.
"The epidemic ... has given us no
opportunity to come and play," said Yang, one of those in the park, who
gave only one name.
"After the end of this lockdown we
don’t have to scan the health code any more nor do we have to check the travel
code. So we are free now."
---- Traffic is building
again on the capital's roads as people quickly return to outdoor sites, such as
lakes, rivers and shopping malls. But business is still slow at some smaller,
confined places such as restaurants, owners said.
"Work production, life and
entertainment are all getting back to normal levels," a man surnamed Wu
told Reuters by the riverside in the central city of Wuhan, where the pandemic
began three years ago.
People who had been infected were not
as anxious anymore, added Wu, a tutor at a private education training
centre. read more
China's biggest holiday, Lunar New
Year, begins on Jan 21 this year, when the railway network is expected to carry
5.5 million passengers, state broadcaster CCTV has said.
Amid the expected surge of holiday
travel, authorities at Tibet's spectacular Potala Palace said it would open
again for visitors from Jan 3, after shutting in August last year due to a
COVID-19 outbreak.
Some hotels in the tourist attraction
of Sanya on the southern island of Hainan are already fully booked for Lunar New
Year, media have said.
In recent days state media have sought
to reassure the public that the COVID-19 outbreak was under control and nearing
its peak.
More
Some in China
return to regular activity after COVID infections | Reuters
Shocking Lab
Investigation of COVID Vaccines
Jan 1 2023
STORY
AT-A-GLANCE
·
A
recent laboratory investigation by The Highwire reveals the only consistent
thing about the COVID shots are their inconsistency. There is no quality
control. Some appear clear like saline, while others are loaded with
contaminants
·
In
August 2021, Japan rejected 1.63 million doses of Moderna’s mRNA shot due to
contamination. Last year the European Medicines Agency (EMA) also expressed
concern over vials that were only 50% to 55% pure
·
The
vials also contain massively inconsistent amounts of polyethylene glycol (PEG).
PEG can cause anaphylactic shock in some people. PEG also gets in the way of
proper immune response
·
If
you are unfortunate enough to get a vial that is loaded with PEG, your risk of
adverse effects such as anaphylactic shock and dysregulated immune response is
greater than if you get a vial with lower amounts
·
According
to Dr. Ryan Cole, a pathologist, what looks like microchips or nanotechnology
in the liquid are actually stacked cholesterol, sugar and salt crystals, and
what has been described as parasites are stellate trikons, found on the bottom
of leaves. They’re likely a contaminant picked up at some point during the lab
investigation
More
Shocking Lab
Investigation of COVID Vaccines (theepochtimes.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
China cracks advanced
microchip technology in blow to Western sanctions
31 December 2022
China has cracked a microchip design method previously only mastered
by the West, in a challenge that could undermine sanctions.
Patent filings reveal that Huawei has made advances in a crucial method
of chip manufacture, raising the prospect that the company could eventually
start making some of the smallest and most powerful microchips by itself.
Such a development would allow Beijing to skirt
Western sanctions. Washington, Brussels and London are currently all blocking
access to advanced Western-made computer chips in China over fears the Communist nation could
develop new military capabilities beyond the power of Western armies to resist.
It comes as China is under pressure to revive its
economy, after new data out this weekend revealed a surge in cases of Covid-19
had pushed economic activity to its slowest pace since February 2020.
The sudden reversal of Xi Jinping's zero-Covid
policy - and resulting outbreak of the virus in cities - has forced businesses
to shut their doors, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics suggested.
China's manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 47 in December compared
to 48 in November.
Huawei is one of the largest private
companies in China. Its patent filing for the microchip technology, made in
November but only revealed to the world this month, describes a way of using
ultraviolet light to etch a computer chip’s inner workings into a piece of
silicon.
Using so-called
extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) technology, transistors can be
created that are just nanometres in size. The most powerful computer chips
contain millions of transistors and advances in miniaturisation allow for the
creation of hugely powerful chips.
The highly specialised
technique has only ever been cracked by Netherlands-based company ASML. A
€208bn business, ASML’s chipmaking secrets are jealously guarded by both the company and the West.
Dutch foreign trade
minister Liesje Schreinemacher told the country’s parliament in November that
ASML’s chip technology was a jewel in the country’s crown to be protected.
US trade
sanctions imposed on China this summer specifically targeted EUV technology
imports. Dutch officials were leaned on by the US to refuse any export licences
to China, according to Bloomberg.
News that local champion
Huawei has found a way to develop the chips themselves is likely to spark alarm
among Western officials.
Huawei did not respond to a
request for comment.
EUV machines each cost
between $150m and $300m and are about the size of a London bus. Factories
typically need between 9 and 18 machines, driving the cost of new chip plants
well into the billions.
ASML’s microchip manufacturing machines are used by
world-leading chipmakers such as Intel, Samsung and Taiwanese chip giant TSMC.
In January 2022, Intel ordered five EUV machines to help fit out a new
chipmaking factory.
Separately on Friday, Huawei said it was “back to business as usual”
after two years of disruption triggered by US sanctions.
In an end-of-year message Chairman Eric Xu said the company had emerged
from “crisis mode”, saying: “US restrictions are now our new normal, and we're
back to business as usual”.
More
China cracks
advanced microchip technology in blow to Western sanctions (msn.com)
Joseph J. Cassano, a former A.I.G. executive, August 2007, on Credit
Default Swaps that wiped out A.I.G in 2008.
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