Baltic Dry Index. 946 -30 Brent Crude 84.76
Spot Gold 1911 US 2 Year Yield 4.12 -0.08
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 17/01/23 World 671,603,470
Deaths 6,732,136
It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place.
H. L. Mencken.
Today, it’s mostly about a flurry
of statistics out of China. But how reliable are Chinese statistics?
In the USA, “earnings season” is
about to start. The punters in the US stock casinos will be paying attention to
forward guidance. But how reliable is US corporate guidance?
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fall as investors digest Chinese economic data
UPDATED TUE, JAN 17 2023 12:11 AM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly traded Tuesday as investors digested a slew of Chinese economic
data.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component struggled
for direction and traded fractionally lower and the Shanghai Composite fell
0.25% as data showed nation’s
GDP grew by 3% in 2022, marking one of the slowest growth in
decades.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.17% while the Hang Seng Tech index also shed 0.88%.
Stocks in Japan bucked the trend,
with the Nikkei 225 rising
1.28%, leading gains in the region as the Bank
of Japan kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting. The
yield on Japan’s 10-year treasury continued
to test the upper ceiling of the central bank’s tolerance range. The Topix
inched up 0.86%.
The Japanese yen weakened
0.12% against the U.S. dollar to 128.69, while still hovering around the
strongest levels since May, 2022.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost
0.03% as the nation’s Westpac consumer confidence rose 5% in December from 3%
in November, Refinitiv data showed. South Korea’s Kospi fell
0.73% and the Kosdaq shed 0.8%.
Credit Suisse says
iron ore prices to peak at around $130 to $140 this year
Iron ore prices are
forecast to be around $130 to $140 as traders keep China’s reopening in focus,
said Credit Suisse’s Head of Energy and Resources Research, Saul Kavonic.
“We are expecting
that $130 to $140 mark to be where prices kind of end up and top out this
year,” he said.
While the last few
weeks of iron ore demand strength is buoyed by speculative buying and holiday
period purchases, he said the markets are currently watching how China’s
reopening plays out and the rolling out of any infrastructure stimulus.
He said these
measures will “sustain that demand for iron ore throughout the course of this
year well into next year.”
more
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fall as investors digest Chinese economic data (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
tick lower as investors look to corporate earnings
UPDATED MON, JAN 16 2023 10:20 PM
EST
Stock futures were
down slightly Monday night as investors attempted to keep building on early
2023 momentum and looked ahead to more corporate earnings.
Futures tied to the
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 14 points, or just under the flatline.
S&P 500 futures dropped 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slid 0.2%.
All three of the
major indexes are up coming off a positive first two weeks of trading in the
new year. The Nasdaq Composite is leading the way up 5.9%, as investors bought
beat-up technology shares amid rising hopes of an improving landscape for
growth stocks. The S&P 500 and Dow have advanced 4.2% and 3.5%, respectively,
since the start of the year.
---- Investor focus now turns to corporate financials as
earnings season kicks off. Banks took center stage Friday as
investors digested comments about
the likelihood of a recession. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are set to
report before the bell Tuesday, followed by United Airlines after the market
close.
“The economic data has been kind,
to say the least, which is not something we were afforded for the vast majority
of the year just gone,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. “The
question now is whether earnings season will enhance that new sense of hope or
spoil the party before it really gets going.”
Investors will also be closely
watching for news out of the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos taking
place this week.
Stock futures tick lower as investors look to corporate earnings (cnbc.com)
Finally in China news, China’s
trade surplus made a record high. What was it President Trump said about trade
wars?
China
Posts Record Trade Year Despite Subdued US Exports
By Enda Curran 16 January 2023
at 12:00 GMTWhen China’s Vice Premier Liu He attends the World Economic Forum’s
annual meeting in Davos this week, it will mark the first time a senior Chinese
official has attended since the pandemic began.
Recall that three years ago this week at a White House,
China and the US signed off on a “phase one” trade deal that intended to
rebalance commerce between the world’s two biggest economies, mostly by China
buying more American farm produce.
Needless to say, a lot has
changed since then.
Instead of China hoovering up US
goods, the pandemic supercharged Chinese exports amid insatiable demand by
cashed-up American for products made in China.
And even as the trade
boom cooled in the second half of last year, for the full year in 2022 China
still posted a trade surplus of $878 billion, a record high, according to
government figures released Friday. (Click here for more.)
Yet trade with the US was fairly
subdued: For the full year, exports grew just 1.2% from the year prior to
$582 billion while imports from the US fell 1.1% to $178 billion.
More
Supply Chain Latest: China Posts a Record Year of
Trade With US - Bloomberg
China reports 3%
GDP growth for 2022 as December retail sales, industrial production beat
estimates
BEIJING — China reported GDP growth for 2022 that beat expectations as
December retail sales came in far better than projected.
GDP grew by 3% in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics
said Tuesday. That was better than the 2.8% forecast in a Reuters’ poll. The GDP growth number
did miss the official target of around 5.5% set in March. In 2021, China’s growth had rebounded by 8.4% from just
2.2% growth in 2020.
Fourth-quarter GDP rose by 2.9%, beating expectations from
the Reuters’ poll of 1.8% growth.
Kang Yi, director of the National
Bureau of Statistics, cast China’s 3% growth as “relatively fast” in light of
unexpected situations and in contrast to Germany, the U.S. and Japan.
However, he said the global trade
situation was not optimistic, and that the world economy may face stagflation.
“Businesses still face many
difficulties in production and operation, scientific and technological
innovation is not strong enough, and people still have considerable
difficulties in employment,” Kang said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. “We
still need to make strenuous efforts to promote overall economic improvement.”
Kang said he expected real estate
would not drag down growth in 2023 as much as it did in 2022. He also said he
expects consumer prices will overall be stable in 2023 and
that there’s no basis for a major increase.
More
China’s
population falls for first time since 1961, highlights demographic crisis
January 17, 2023 4:30 AM GMT
BEIJING/HONG KONG Jan 17 (Reuters) -
China's population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic
turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its
citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world.
The drop, the worst
since 1961, the last year of China's Great Famine, also lends weight to
predictions that India will become the world's most populous nation this year.
China's population
declined by roughly 850,000 to 1.41175 billion at the end of 2022, the
country's National Bureau of Statistics said.
Long-term, U.N. experts see China's
population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of
their previous forecast in 2019.
That's caused
domestic demographers to lament that China will get old before it gets rich,
slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases due to
soaring health and welfare costs.
"China's
demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker than expected. China will have
to adjust its social, economic, defense and foreign policies," said
demographer Yi Fuxian.
More
China’s
population falls for first time since 1961, highlights demographic crisis |
Reuters
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Is the USA already in a recession? Well if it’s not, it’s
uncomfortably close to recession. Remember,
when the USA sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Approx. 10 minutes.
Fed
Finally Admits The TRUTH In New Report
Fed
Finally Admits The TRUTH In New Report - YouTube
Economist Nouriel
Roubini aka 'Doctor Doom' predicts world heading towards stagflation
January
16 2023
New Delhi: Economist Nouriel Roubini,
nicknamed as ‘Doctor Doom’ by Wall Street, has predicted that the world is
heading towards stagflation.
“The era of
the great moderation is over, we are entering the great stagflation,” Roubini,
who predicted the financial crisis in 2008, said.
For the
unversed, stagflation is a period of stagnant economic growth coupled with
persistently high inflation and a massive surge in unemployment.
Roubini, known for his
foretelling of the financial crisis, said the current situation may get even
worse considering the host of risks and “mega-threats” the world is facing.
----Roubini quashed the general consensus that believes inflationary
pressures are temporary and increasing interest rates would temper soaring
prices as well as provide for a “soft landing” of the economy is wrong.
He instead
said that the landing will not be soft but harsh, and associated with financial
stress. “Raising interest rates while the economy is losing momentum, with an
overall level of debt much higher than in the 1970s, could cause a collapse in
stock and bond markets, which could deepen the recession,” Roubini added.
He said that
“part of the solution will necessarily involve inflation, which reduces the
debt burden.”
More
Economist Nouriel
Roubini aka 'Doctor Doom' predicts world heading towards stagflation (msn.com)
Next, the Oxford Union debate 2023. Approx. 9 minutes.
I had the privilege 1973 to attend the OU event that
featured defeated Presidential candidate Senator George McGovern.
Russian-British comedian mocks
wokeness in Oxford Union speech: 'Trained young minds to forget'
Konstantin Kisin argued
wokeness brainwashes young minds into forgetting that work and creation are how
to improve the world
----My speech at the Oxford Union is finally
available. The debate was "This House Believes Woke Culture Has Gone Too
Far". As promised, I didn't hold back
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Evidence of Serious Adverse
Events in What Is Believed to Be One of the Most Effective Vaccines
The Truth About HPV
Vaccines: Part I
The decline of public trust in
COVID-19 vaccines significantly impacts vaccination rates against routine
childhood diseases. This multiple-part series explores the international
research done over the past two decades on the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine—believed to be one of the most effective
vaccines developed to date.
Summary of Key Facts
·
This
multiple-part series offers a thorough analysis of concerns raised about HPV
vaccination following the global HPV campaign, which commenced in 2006.
·
In
the United States, the HPV vaccine was reported to have a disproportionately
higher percentage of adverse events of fainting and blood clots in the
veins. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) acknowledges that
fainting can happen following the HPV vaccine, and recommends sitting or lying
down to get the shot, then waiting for 15 minutes afterward.
·
International
scientists found that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s
(CDC) Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) logged a substantial
increase in reports of premature ovarian failure (POF) from 1.4 per year before
2006 to 22.2 per year after the HPV vaccine approval, yielding a Proportional
Reporting Ratio of 46.1.
The HPV vaccine is widely regarded
as one of the most effective vaccines developed to date. Nevertheless, safety
issues have been raised following its approval, and in response, additional
research has been published and litigation has been brought on behalf of those with a
vaccine injury.
In this HPV vaccine series, Parts I and II explain how the vaccine works
and the evidence suggesting there may be legitimate safety concerns. The
remaining parts present questions about real-world vaccine effectiveness and
identify specific ingredients which may pose harm.
The information presented here is drawn from peer-reviewed scientific
literature from the United States, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, France, and
Japan, as well as statistics published by public health agencies in each of
these countries. More than 100 hours of research and internal peer review among
scientists with experience in infectious diseases, virology, clinical trials,
and vaccine epidemiology have been invested in presenting this summary of the
evidence.
Large registry-based studies have identified plausible associations
between HPV vaccination and autoimmune conditions, including premature ovarian
insufficiency or failure (POI/POF), Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), postural
orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), and chronic regional pain syndrome
(CRPS).
While it is easy to be enthusiastic about recent advances in human
vaccine technology, we should keep in mind that achieving real and lasting good
health is much more than just the absence of a certain virus.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
IDTechEx Discusses What to
Expect From the Graphene Industry in 2023
13 Jan, 2023, 15:02 GMT
BOSTON, Jan. 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/
-- Is this the year of rapid graphene sales? Is the market slipping deeper into
a disillusionment phase? Who will emerge as the market leaders? Is
consolidation inevitable? 2023 will be a telling year for the industry.
IDTechEx
has provided the most comprehensive independent market report on graphene and other 2D materials for
more than 10 years. An overview of the commercial activity for nanocarbons in
2022 was provided in this article; here, IDTechEx looks at what to watch
out for in 2023.
2023
will present a fascinating year for the graphene industry. IDTechEx expect some
great successes as key orders arrive, but this will not be the case for all manufacturers,
and a challenging year ahead looms for some as a result. With the collapse of XG Sciences in 2022, there is blood in the
water. In the long run, this will not be the only casualty of legacy graphene
manufacturers, many of whom have over a decade of operation. IDTechEx has for
many years stated the inevitable consolidation of the graphene industry; just
look at equivalent mature markets. Even as start 2023, the future of one such
longstanding companies, Applied Graphene Materials, looks uncertain. Success is
anything but guaranteed and highly dependent on a company's cash position; for
many, it is time to turn the promise of graphene into revenue.
Entering 2023, capacity
comfortably outstrips demand. However, this will not stop more facilities being
announced and coming online. Graphene is a broader material family than many
appreciate. Those planning expansions may feel their material can offer
something alternative or that they hold other competitive advantages through
their process, partnerships, geographic location, or upstream & downstream
integration. There will be clear graphene market leaders in the future, but who
they are today is less clear. IDTechEx has begun to see some players progress
beyond their peers, but the race is still at the early stage. The leading unbiased report from IDTechEx provides a comprehensive
appraisal of the key graphene companies.
More
IDTechEx Discusses
What to Expect From the Graphene Industry in 2023 (prnewswire.co.uk)
A bank is a confidence trick. If you put up the right signs, the
wizards of finance themselves will come in and ask you to take their money.
House of All Nations. 1938.
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