Baltic Dry Index. 676 -01 Brent Crude 86.66
Spot Gold 1928 U S 2 Year Yield 4.19 +0.02
“I did not attend his funeral, but I sent a
nice letter saying I approved of it.”
With both
the Fed and Bank of England due to set their key interest rates for February
next week, stocks look set to boom or bust.
But with
inflation easing slightly, the stock casinos have already priced in boom.
So with a
lively week expected next week, this weekends LIR focuses on that famous so
called “Last Da Vinci,” the Salvator
Mundi.
For more
on that, scroll down to today’s last, very intriguing section.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq posts fourth week of
gains
UPDATED FRI, JAN 27 2023 5:07 PM EST
Stocks rose Friday and capped off a winning week
fueled by better-than-expected economic growth and a pop in Tesla shares.
The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.95%
to settle at 11,621.71, while the S&P 500 gained 0.25% to close at
4,070.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 28.67 points, or 0.08%, to
finish at 33,978.08.
All the major averages posted a
positive week and are on pace for a month of gains. The tech-heavy index rose
4.32% and closed out its fourth week of gains. It’s on pace for its best
monthly performance since July. The S&P and Dow added 2.47% and 1.81%,
respectively, this week.
Earnings season pressed on, with
strong guidance boosting American Express shares
by 10.5% despite a
top-and bottom-line miss. Some chip stocks rose even as Intel slumped
more than 6% on a dismal
earnings report that missed expectations.
Tesla rose
11% Friday, and more than 33% for the week after reporting
record revenue. It marked the electric
vehicle stock’s best
weekly performance since May 2013.
So far this year, markets have
bucked 2022′s selloff trend. The Dow is up 2.5%, while the S&P has gained
6%. The Nasdaq has surged 11%.
“We’re putting the final touches
on an extremely strong January on the heels of lower inflation, and an economy
that’s hanging in there,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson
Group. “We’re not out of the woods though. We’ve still got the Fed next week,
and they might want to throw some water on this rally.”
Investors weighed more economic
data Friday ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The personal
consumption expenditures price index, excluding energy and food, showed prices
rose 4.4% from a year ago, the Commerce Department said, and in line with the
Dow Jones estimate. So-called PCE is a preferred inflation gauge for the Fed.
A better-than-expected fourth-quarter
gross domestic product report Thursday also helped stoke hopes
that the Fed may manage a soft landing.
These are some of the last data
points before the central bank’s widely expected 25 basis point hike.
Stocks
close higher Friday, Nasdaq posts fourth week of gains (cnbc.com)
Your Evening Briefing: Key Fed-Favored
Measure Shows Cooling Inflation
January
27 2023
The US
Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual pace in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping
pave the way for policymakers to further scale back interest-rate hikes.
The figures added to mounting evidence that the worst bout of inflation in a
generation has passed as the Fed’s aggressive tightening campaign works its way
through the economy. Officials are widely expected to once again slow the pace
of rate hikes, to a quarter point next week, and will discuss how much higher they need to go to ensure prices are cooling for good.
But as always, there’s bad news, too. Another
key gauge of the health of the American economy is showing stress. There’s
a growing cohort of Americans facing auto repossessions, often an ominous sign.
During the pandemic, a surge in used car prices forced buyers to take out
bigger loans for their vehicles. The monthly payments may have been more
manageable amid lockdown bailout checks, a tight labor market and
surging stocks. But that’s changing for many people as inflation,
though cooling, eats into their budgets.
Wall Street on Friday brushed
off disappointing outlooks from big tech companies, as well as predictions that
an earnings recession would overshadow Fed success on the inflation
front.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Key Fed-Favored Measure Shows Cooling Inflation - Bloomberg
Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey set to stage U-turn as he
is expected to row back on 'grossly exaggerated' forecasts about UK's looming
recession
27 January 2023
Andrew Bailey will stage a humiliating U-turn next
week as he is expected to row back on 'grossly exaggerated' forecasts about the
UK's looming recession.
The Bank of England will publish its latest
quarterly Monetary Policy Report on Thursday setting out the projections used
by policymakers to set interest rates.
In November, Bailey warned the country faces the
longest recession on record and soaring unemployment. The Bank said the UK was
at the start of a painful slump that could leave an extra 1m workers jobless.
But ahead of next week's update a top fund manager said
Bailey will backtrack on his comments, producing a 'relatively improved
outlook'.
Toscafund chief economist Savvas Savouri said: 'The BoE's
grossly exaggerated expectations for UK unemployment and inflation contributed
in no small way to the dire GDP forecasts it published in the Monetary Policy
Reports of August and November 2022. Expect for Bailey to suggest the UK still
faces recession, but one shorter and milder than the one he had outlined
through last year. We expect the length of his recession forecast to be cut in
half – a 'softer landing'.'
More
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Column: Recession now or later?
Unenviable alternatives for 2023
January
26, 2023 2:53 PM GMT
LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Optimistic investors are hoping for a soft
landing in 2023 - with inflation decelerating while the business cycle slows
but avoids outright recession.
However, this middle way is actually the least likely outcome given the
lack of spare capacity in global supply chains and job markets to absorb
continued output growth.
Two other scenarios are more likely: (1) inflation fades because the
economy slides into recession, or (2) continued growth sparks a fresh round of
price increases, forcing central banks to raise interest rates further.
The first scenario is consistent with a
recession starting in early 2023, the second with a recession deferred until
late 2023 or early 2024 when inflation and interest rate rises induce a
slowdown.
CYCLICAL EXTREMES
During a typical economic cycle, output
growth alternates between expansions well above the long-term trend rate and
contractions well below trend; growth is close to trend only for relatively
short periods.
In the last 40 years, U.S. manufacturing output growth was within ± 1.0
percentage points of the prior ten-year trend only 30% of the time and within ±
0.5 percentage points only 16% of the time.
By contrast, growth was well above trend (>1.0 percentage points) for
39% of the time and well below trend (<1.0 percentage points) for 30% of the
time.
Moderate growth close to trend is not the norm.
Instead, recessions create substantial
slack in manufacturing, supply chains and labour markets that provide
conditions for faster post-recession growth.
Eventually, the cyclical slack is
absorbed and continued above-trend growth creates inflationary pressure until
central banks raise rates to induce a slowdown and bring prices under control.
But there is almost no cyclical slack
in the major economies at present, which implies the potential for
non-inflationary growth in 2023 is limited.
DIESEL SHORTAGE
Diesel is the workhorse of the
industrial economy. Most diesel is used in freight transport, manufacturing,
construction, mining, and oil and gas production, so consumption and
inventories track the cycle closely.
Global diesel inventories are currently
close to multi-year lows in North America, Europe and Asia, illustrating the
lack of spare capacity:
More
Column: Recession
now or later? Unenviable alternatives for 2023 | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Why no investigation by anyone? Approx. 16 minutes.
Excess
deaths in 30 countries
Excess deaths in 30 countries - YouTube
FDA Quietly Changes End Date for Study of Heart Inflammation After Pfizer COVID Vaccination
January 27, 2023 Updated: January 27, 2023
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
has changed the end date for a key study on post-vaccination heart inflammation
without notifying the public.
Pfizer was supposed to complete a study on the
occurrence of subclinical myocarditis, or heart inflammation, after receipt of
its COVID-19 vaccine. The completion date was listed by the FDA in 2021 as June
20, 2022. Pfizer was also supposed to submit the results of the study to the
FDA by the end of 2022 as part of a list
of requirements the FDA imposed as a condition of approving Pfizer’s jab.
But after the deadline passed, the FDA quietly changed the date.
Under a list of postmarketing requirements for the Pfizer-BioNTech
vaccine, the FDA now says the same study has an “original projected completion
date” of June 30, 2023.
The current status of the study is listed as “pending.”
The
FDA and Pfizer did not respond to requests for comment.
Jessica
Adams, a former regulatory review officer at the FDA, said the wording amounts
to misinformation.
“By
definition, ‘original’ dates can’t change,” she wrote on Twitter, tagging the
agency. “Please correct this ‘misinformation.'”
Dr.
Vinay Prasad, who has increasingly criticized the FDA over its decisions during
the pandemic, said the new timeline “is so slow it will be entirely moot.”
----The study is one of nine
Pfizer was to complete to examine post-vaccination adverse events.
The
study is designed to “prospectively assess the incidence of subclinical
myocarditis” after receipt of a third dose, or a booster, in people aged 16 to
30.
More
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
With Fed week coming up, no technology
update this weekend. What would central
banksters do with technology but print more fiat money.
This weekend something different. The Great
“Last Da Vinci” hoax? Part 1, approx. 13 minutes.
The
Strange Saga of the Salvator Mundi | Part 1
The Strange Saga of the Salvator Mundi | Part 1 - YouTube
This
weekend’s Great “Last Da Vinci” hoax? Part 2? Approx. 13 minutes.
The
Strange Saga of the Salvator Mundi | Part 2
The Strange Saga of the Salvator Mundi | Part 2 - YouTube
This
weekend’s Great “Last Da Vinci” hoax? Part 3. Approx. 7 minutes.
The
Strange Saga of the Salvator Mundi | Part 3
The
Strange Saga of the Salvator Mundi | Part 3 - YouTube
I
have never viewed the Salvator Mundi, but I have viewed the Mona Lisa in Paris.
To me, the Salvator Mundi is no Da Vinci, not even on his worst ever day in the
studio, after a long night out on the town.
Normal
weekend service next weekend.
“I am enclosing two tickets to the first night
of my new play; bring a friend ... if you have one."
— George Bernard Shaw, playwright (to Winston
Churchill)
"Cannot possibly attend first night; will
attend second, if there is one."
— Churchill's response”
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