Baltic Dry Index. 1146 -30 Brent Crude 79.30
Spot Gold 1839 US 2 Year Yield 4.45 +0.09
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 06/01/23 World 667,202,608
Deaths 6,706,617
The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions
which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.
Walter Bagehot.
This
morning, the stock casinos hopium versus the harsh reality of the global
economy.
Are Private Equity valuations accurate or fraud/fantasy?
Asia-Pacific
markets trade higher as Fed signals more pain ahead
UPDATED FRI, JAN 6 2023 12:11 AM
EST
Markets in the Asia-Pacific traded higher as the
Federal Reserve signaled further rate hikes ahead.
The U.S. ADP
private payrolls report said employers added 235,000 jobs in December — showing a strong labor market
despite the Fed’s attempt to tame inflation and suggesting there is room for
higher rates.
South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.46%,
leading gains in the region. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.54%. The Nikkei 225 in
Japan rose 0.6% and the Topix inched up 0.5%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.27% as China signaled more supportive measures for its property sector. The Shanghai Composite gained
0.37% and the Shenzhen
Component gained 0.67%.
Natural gas fell more than 10% and hit a low of
$3.651, its lowest level since Jan. 3, 2022 — on
pace for its fifth negative session. The U.S. dollar index is up 0.75%, on pace
for its second positive session.
On Wall Street, the Dow
closed 300 points lower as investors looked ahead to more
jobs data scheduled to be released Friday stateside. Bed, Bath & Beyond shed
nearly 30% after the company said it is short on cash and considering
bankruptcy. All three major indexes are on track to notch five weeks of losses.
Stock futures
rise slightly as investors look ahead to Friday’s jobs report
UPDATED THU, JAN 5 2023 6:58 PM
EST
U.S. stock futures rose slightly on Thursday
night as investors looked ahead to the December jobs report Friday. Strong jobs
data earlier in the day led to declines in the major averages as it pointed to
further rate hikes ahead.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures rose by 42 points, or 0.13%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed
0.19% and 0.21%, respectively.
During the
regular session Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
339.69 points, or 1.02%. The S&P 500 declined 1.16%, while the Nasdaq
Composite closed 1.47% lower. A stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls
report Thursday weighed on the major indexes.
Recession fears remained top of
mind for investors as they deliberated whether the Federal Reserve could
navigate a soft landing in its fight against inflation.
“I’m allowing in my thinking that we
could have a recession by the end of the year, and that recession
will be brought about by Fed tightening, QT, quantitative tightening, a
stronger dollar, or the price of oil,” said Omega Family Office’s Leon
Cooperman on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime” on Thursday.
“And if we have a recession, the
market will have ended its decline, say, down 35% from its peak, so that gives
you the low 3,000s,” Cooperman added.
Traders are anticipating the December
jobs report before the bell Friday. Economists polled by the Dow
Jones expect the U.S. added 200,000 jobs last month, which would mean a
deceleration from gains in the prior month. A better-than-expected report
pointing to a resilient labor market could mean the Fed has further to go in
its efforts to tame inflation.
Stocks are headed
for losses in the first trading week of 2023. As of Thursday’s
close, the Dow is down 0.66% week to date, headed for its fourth down week in
five. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are both on pace for their
fifth straight week of losses, down 0.82% and 1.54%, respectively.
Stock
futures rise slightly as investors look ahead to Friday's jobs report
(cnbc.com)
Back in
the real world, more sign of a serious global recession unfolding.
China’s new Covid
surge is crippling the world’s most important factories and biggest ports
The surge in Covid-19 cases in China is impacting
the completion of manufacturing orders, according to CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map
data.
Logistics managers are warning
clients that because of the spike in infections, factories are unable to
complete orders — even with U.S. manufacturing orders from China already
down 40% due to an unrelenting demand collapse.
Orders for ocean bookings continue
to be softer according to SONAR Data.
“With 1/2 or even 3/4 [of the] labor force being infected
and not able to work, many China manufacturers can not operate properly but
produce less than their optimal outputs,” Hong Kong-based shipping firm HLS
wrote in a note to clients. “The container pickup, loading, and drayage
(trucking) are also affected as all businesses are facing the impacts of COVID.
We expect a very soft volume after the Lunar New Year because a lot of
factories have slowed production due to the increasing infection, and have to
cancel or delay the bookings for the 2nd half
of January and also early February.”
HLS also noted that “All
indications that the Chinese cities are experiencing infection peaks is based
on the surge of infected family members, friends, and colleagues, the long
lines at the fever clinics at hospitals across the country.”
Three major ports across China are
experiencing supply chain delivery problems because of Covid, according to the
note.
For the Port of Shanghai, the
world’s number one container port, the report warned that “Cancellations are
increasing as many factories can’t operate properly due to a lot of workers
getting infected with Covid.”
The same warning was also
highlighted for the Port of Shenzhen, the fourth-largest container port in the
world and the city that is home to Apple manufacturers.
“The booking cancellation is increasing as many factories can’t operate
properly due to a lot of workers getting invested with Covid,” the report said.
Qingdao, the sixth-largest port in the world, is
reported as having factories with only “1/4 labor force and can not ensure
normal production.”
This data falls in direct
contrast with reports from Chinese state media, which have looked
to reassure the public that the outbreak is under control. The accuracy of data
being released by the China CDC has come under increasing scrutiny around the
world.
More
Your
Evening Briefing: Hedge Funds Can’t Agree How to Value Companies
5 January 2023 at 23:22 GMTUpdated on6 January 2023
at 01:47 GMT
The pain—and the questions—kept
coming as big name hedge funds took turns marking down the value of their
stakes in private companies. Every time they wrote down holdings by millions—or
even billions—of dollars, investors last year questioned whether they had gone
far enough. Now, an exclusive
Bloomberg News analysis offers a glimpse into one of the most opaque corners of
the investing world, and the findings aren’t reassuring. In many cases, hedge
funds and other money managers disagree over just how to value private
companies. By the end of 2022, high-flying unicorns lost more than 40% of
their value from the year’s peak, a sharper drop than the rout in publicly
traded tech stocks and worse than the returns reported by most hedge funds in
the space. Disagreements over what companies are now worth have profound implications
for the ultimate investors–from wealthy individuals to pension plans. One
takeaway is that even after a year of writedowns across the investment
industry, more may be in
store.
Here
are today’s top stories
Silvergate
Capital shares plunged after the
bank said the crypto industry’s meltdown triggered a run on deposits, prompting
the company to sell assets at a steep loss and fire 40% of its staff. Customers
withdrew about $8.1 billion of
digital-asset deposits from the bank during the fourth quarter. Executives said
Silvergate may become a takeover target.
Bed Bath & Beyond said it might not be able to continue as a going concern,
bringing another US retail chain to the precipice of bankruptcy and potentially
placing tens of thousands of
employees at risk. The news comes less than a day after Amazon said it was
firing more than 18,000 employees—8,000 more than expected—the biggest
wave of terminations in its history.
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Hedge Funds Can’t Agree How to Value Some Companies -
Bloomberg
Finally,
in Cryptoland yet more bad news from America. In crypto, is there ever any
other kind of news? Cryptoland, where fools come to be parted from their money.
U.S.
judge says Celsius Network owns most customer crypto deposits
January 5, 2023
12:40 AM GMT
Jan 4 (Reuters) - A U.S. bankruptcy
judge ruled on Wednesday that Celsius Network owns most of the cryptocurrency
that customers deposited into its online platform, meaning most Celsius
customers will be last in line for repayment in the crypto lender's bankruptcy.
The ruling by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Martin
Glenn in New York affects approximately 600,000 accounts that held assets
valued at $4.2 billion when Celsius filed
for bankruptcy in July. The company does not have enough funds to
fully repay those deposits, Glenn wrote.
The ruling means that most Celsius
customers will be lower priority than customers who held non-interest bearing
accounts and other secured creditors. It was unclear whether Celsius has
significant secured debt.
The ruling also prevents in-fighting
for higher priority among customers with interest-bearing accounts, avoiding a
situation in which some of those customers are repaid 100% of their deposits
while similarly-situated customers are able to recover "only a small
percentage" of their deposits, according to Glenn. Celsius' terms of
service made clear that the crypto lender took ownership of customer deposits
into its interest-bearing Earn accounts, according to Glenn. That means that
Earn customers will be treated as unsecured creditors in Celsius' bankruptcy,
and they will be last in line for repayment after Celsius repays
higher-priority debts.
---- Celsius customers may be able to
bring fraud or breach of contract claims against the crypto lender, and state
regulators may be able to make the case that the accountholders' contracts
cannot be enforced because they violated state securities laws, according to
the ruling.
"The Court does not take lightly
the consequences of this decision on ordinary individuals, many of whom
deposited significant savings into the Celsius platform," Glenn wrote.
"Creditors will have every opportunity to have a full hearing on the
merits of these arguments during the claims resolution process."
The ruling authorizes Celsius to sell
approximately $18 million stablecoins that had been held in customers' Earn
accounts.
In December, Glenn ruled that
a relatively small group of customers with different kinds of Celsius accounts
were entitled to their deposits back during Celsius's bankruptcy. That ruling
was limited to customers who had non-interest-bearing custody accounts, whose
funds were not commingled with other Celsius assets, and whose accounts were
too small for Celsius to seek to claw them back to repay other customers.
The broader
question of who owns crypto assets is a critical one in other crypto
bankruptcies as well, including the cases of crypto lenders Voyager Digital and
BlockFi.
U.S. judge says Celsius Network owns most customer
crypto deposits | Reuters
U.S.
DOJ to seize $465 million of Robinhood shares tied to Bankman-Fried
January
4, 2023 11:07 PM GMT
Jan 4 (Reuters) - U.S. prosecutors are
in the process of seizing shares of Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD.O) tied
to Sam Bankman-Fried, who has been charged
with fraud in the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, a U.S.
attorney told a judge on Wednesday.
The Department of Justice did not
believe the 56 million shares of Robinhood, worth about $465 million, were
property of a bankruptcy estate, U.S. attorney Seth Shapiro told U.S.
Bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey, who is overseeing the FTX bankruptcy.
Shapiro said that competing claims to
shares of the stock-trading app could be worked out in a forfeiture proceeding.
Bankrupt crypto firm BlockFi, FTX and liquidators in Antigua have all laid
claim to the Robinhood stock, along
with Bankman-Fried.
Prosecutors have accused Bankman-Fried
of engaging in a years-long "fraud
of epic proportions" that cost investors, customers and lenders
potentially billions of dollars by using customer deposits to support his
Alameda Research hedge fund.
---- Bankman-Fried purchased about
7.42% of Robinhood's stock through Emergent Fidelity Technologies Ltd, using
funds borrowed from Alameda Research, according to an affidavit he filed in
December in an Antigua court.
Bankman-Fried said he owned 90% of
Emergent and Gary Wang, another former FTX executive, owned 10%. Wang has
pleaded guilty to fraud charges from the FTX collapse and is cooperating with
prosecutors.
Shapiro also said prosecutors had
seized U.S. bank accounts affiliated with FTX's Bahamas-based business, known
as FTX Digital Markets. Court records show the accounts at Silvergate Bank and
Farmington State Bank, which does business as Moonstone Bank, held about $143
million
James Bromley, an attorney for FTX,
told Dorsey that none of the assets targeted for seizure are currently in the
direct control of any of FTX entities in Chapter 11. He said the Robinhood
shares were subject to litigation and it was an "open question" about
who owns them.
The Robinhood stock, which closed on
Wednesday at $8.36 per share, is also being claimed by BlockFi Inc, another
bankrupt crypto firm as well as liquidators of Emergent, which is in insolvency
proceedings in Antigua, where it is incorporated.
BlockFi is suing Emergent in a bid to
seize the Robinhood stock, which was pledged by Alameda as collateral to
guarantee repayment of a loan made by BlockFi. Two days after the pledge,
Alameda filed for bankruptcy along with FTX.
BlockFi and Robinhood did not immediately
respond to a request for comment.
U.S. DOJ to seize $465 million of Robinhood shares
tied to Bankman-Fried | Reuters
Who
is Alex Mashinsky, the man behind the alleged Celsius crypto fraud?
January 5, 2023 10:45
PM GMT
Jan 5 (Reuters) -
Alex Mashinsky, a co-founder of bankrupt crypto lender Celsius Network who prosecutors allege
bilked investors out of billions, is a serial entrepreneur who has portrayed
himself as a modern-day Robin Hood.
Mashinsky,
57, fraudulently promoted Celsius as a safe alternative to banks, while
concealing that it was losing hundreds of millions of dollars in risky
investments, according to a lawsuit filed on Thursday by New York
Attorney General Letitia James.
The civil lawsuit
seeks to ban Mashinsky from doing business in New York and have him pay
damages, restitution and disgorgement.
James'
lawsuit is the latest black eye for the crypto sector, which has been rocked by
accusations against FTX crypto exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The former
mogul, who has been accused of cheating investors and causing billions of
dollars in losses, on Tuesday pleaded not guilty.
Mashinsky, a
native of Ukraine whose family emigrated to Israel, decided to move to New York
after he took a trip to the city in 1988, he told a Forbes podcast.
"I
looked around and I'm like, I'm never going back," he said.
Since
then, he has founded eight companies, including Arbinet, which went public in 2004, and Transit
Wireless, which provides Wi-Fi to the New York City subway.
Mashinsky claims to have created Voice over
Internet Protocol (VoIP), a precursor to ride-sharing app Uber, as well as an
idea for a cryptocurrency that preceded bitcoin.
Mashinsky became involved in
crypto in 2017, when his venture fund Governing Dynamics brought on blockchain
company MicroMoney as a strategic partner. He founded Celsius the same year.
More
Who
is Alex Mashinsky, the man behind the alleged Celsius crypto fraud? | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
exports unexpectedly fall in November
January 5, 2023
7:29 AM GMT
BERLIN, Jan 5 (Reuters) - German
exports unexpectedly fell in November as high inflation and market uncertainty
continue to weigh on Europe's largest economy despite fading supply chain
problems.
Exports fell by 0.3% on the month, data
from the federal statistics office showed on Thursday. Analysts polled by
Reuters predicted 0.2% growth.
November's drop comes after October's
figures were revised up, to growth of 0.8% from an initially reported 0.6%
fall.
Imports also posted a
bigger-than-expected drop of 3.3% in November, compared with consensus for a
0.5% decline.
Shipments to Germany's top export
partner, the United States, were down 1.5% on the month in November, while
exports to European Union member states fell by 0.4%.
"As China and the United States
are weakening, export momentum will remain subdued for the time being,"
said Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe private bank chief economist Alexander Krueger.
Krueger added that reduced material
bottlenecks provided some cause for optimism. "The export sector supports
the prospect of a mild recession," he added.
A survey published
on Monday showed that the downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector had eased
somewhat in December due to improved materials availability, though weaker
demand continues to affect manufacturers.
The Ifo
economic institute found that the number of manufacturing sector
companies reporting problems with material shortages fell for the third month
in a row in December.
German exports unexpectedly fall in November | Reuters
Recession
in “full swing” as inflation puts small businesses in “critical” state
WEDNESDAY 04 JANUARY 2023
10:30 PM
Recession in Britain is now in full swing with
experts warning of a “critical” situation for small businesses up and down the
country, according to fresh data, as the economy turns sour to start 2023.
Brits are reining in spending to withstand the impact of record-high inflation on their budgets, resulting in one in four of the more than 5,600 businesses surveyed by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) in November registering a fall in sales.
The BCC warned its quarterly survey
has settled at “concerningly low levels,” indicating the well-warned UK
recession has set in.
Britain is on course for an at least year-long
slump, driven by rising prices and business costs curbing economic activity.
The hit to balance sheets from a slowdown in demand
is being compounded by a sharp rise in energy costs, prompting experts to warn
a wave of small businesses could go bust this year.
“The situation remains critical for the majority of
SMEs who find themselves cut adrift by monumental inflationary pressures, often
driving triple-digit percentage cost increases, particularly on energy,” David
Bharier, head of research at the BCC, said of the economy.
Last night, the Treasury confirmed Chancellor
Jeremy Hunt told business leaders to brace for the government to water down
energy bill support from this spring.
The Treasury has been covering around half of
business energy costs since last autumn.
Hunt is expected to halve the support package
after it ends in its current form in March by ensuring it targets businesses
more exposed to potential further surges in gas and electricity prices, which
some fear will do more damage to the economy – although it will make the public
finances healthier.
However, the BCC found nearly two thirds of
companies expect to lift their prices this year to protect margins squeezed by
higher costs, suggesting inflation still has some staying power in 2023.
The survey indicated firms are increasingly
sweating over higher taxes and interest rates.
Hunt lifted taxes significantly as part of a £55bn
autumn budget, while the Bank of England has hiked rates nine times in a row to
3.5 per cent, their highest level since 2008, to tame inflation.
Recession in Britain sets in as experts warn of ‘critical’ situation (cityam.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Today, more on that surprising vaccine controversy
discovered by the Cleveland Clinic, Ohio, released in mid-December that we
first covered on Wednesday. Approx. 14 minutes.
Basically, the more doses of mRNA vaccine people
got, the greater their likelihood of getting reinfected with Covid-19. Why is
this not leading the news.
Update: This has now been censored but Wednesday's original link is still uncensored, such are the times we live in.
Factors
in infection risk
Factors
in infection risk - YouTube
Despite YouTube censorship, Dr. Campbell's update is still available here. Approx. 14 minutes.
More vaccines causes more infections (rumble.com)
More Than 270 Sudden Cardiac Deaths in US Athletes After Vaccination: Peer-Reviewed Study
Jan 4 2023
Two hundred
seventy-nine athletes and former athletes in the United States have died from
cardiac arrests after taking COVID-19 vaccines,
according to data from a recent peer-reviewed
study.
Authored by structural biologist
Panagis Polykretis, and board-certified internist and cardiologist Dr.
Peter McCullough, the study’s cited data found that from 2021 to 2022, at least
1,616 cardiac arrests have been globally documented in vaccinated athletes,
with 1,114 of those being fatal.
The global data also showed that
between 2021 to 2022, former and current American athletes made up 279 of the
mortalities.
Athletes have a lower chance of
cardiac arrest and sudden cardiac death as compared to nonathletes. A 2016 U.S. study calculated that nonathletes,
compared to athletes, have a 29 times higher chance of sudden cardiac death.
One of the reasons is because
“athletes are screened out for the common causes of sudden death on the playing
field,” McCullough told The Epoch Times.
Players are
screened for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, which makes up almost 50 percent of sudden cardiac deaths
in athletes, as well as other less common heart abnormalities.
The intensive screening is what
makes competitive-level sports safer than everyday sporting activities,
McCullough argued.
Sudden Cardiac Deaths in Athletes Increased After Vaccination
McCullough pointed to a
European study that tracked sudden cardiac deaths in European athletes
over 35 years from 1966 to 2004. The study reported 1,101 sudden cardiac deaths
over the interval, which Polykretis estimated would be around 29 deaths per
year.
The data cited in the study,
however, showed that in 2022 alone, over 190 deaths from cardiac arrests have been
reported in current and former athletes.
This does not include the deaths
of athletes with unknown vaccine statuses and those whose names did not make it
into the media.
McCullough said looking at the
data, “there’s no doubt,” that sudden cardiac deaths have increased following
vaccinations.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
No update today, more tomorrow.
Another weekend and the first weekend
of 2023. By the last weekend of 2023, will any crypto firms not have filed for
bankruptcy or been accused of fraud?
Have a great weekend everyone.
A large Bank is exactly the place where a vain and shallow person
in authority, if he be a man of gravity and method, as such men often are, may
do infinite evil in no long time, and before he is detected. If he is lucky
enough to begin at a time of expansion in trade, he is nearly sure not to be
found out till the time of contraction has arrived, and then very large figures
will be required to reckon the evil he has done.
Walter
Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873
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